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Remote sensing of the surface emissivity at 9 microns over the globe

The infrared spectral measurements made by the Nimbus 4 infrared interferometer spectrometer (Iris) for a period of about 10 months are used to study the surface emissivity properties over the globe. It is found that the surface emissivity at 9 microns, as measured by Iris with a circular field of view of about 100-km diameter, is significantly less than unity over arid and semiarid areas. The spectral features in the 8-12-micron window observed over these lands reveal emissivity characteristics essentially due to quartz (SiO2). It is found that these emissivity features are significantly weakened by the presence of clay, clay horizons, or pedogenic horizons in the soil. Low emissivity is observed over sandy or sandy loam areas (psamments) with no clay or pedogenic horizons.

Prabhakara, C.↗

Examining Weathering of Magnesite in an Arid Environment: Implications For Jezero Crater

Introduction:Orbiter data indicatethe presence of carbonates in severallocations on the surface of Mars[1],but Jezero crater, landing site of the Perseverancerover,is the only known location where carbonatesap-pear coincident with evidence of fluvialand lacustrineactivity [2].On Earth, carbonates in close proximity to these paleoenvironments mayindicatethe presence of past microbial life,like stromatolites[3], that could re-sult inbiosignatures [2]. However,in other cases,car-bonates can also form throughthe alteration of mafic materialwiththe introductionof carbonic acid[4].Hy-drated magnesites have also been found in evaporative environments along lake shores, and in playas[5,6,7].Correctly interpreting past carbonates on Mars is there-fore critical in the search for past signs of life. In Jezero crater,both thenorthernand western fans haveMg-rich carbonates intermixed with olivine-rich material[8].According to CRISM data, magnesite(MgCO3), along with hydromagnesite(Mg5(CO3)4(OH)2•4H2O), arepotential candidatesfor these Mg-carbonates [2]. Considering the spatial con-text with olivine,there aremultiplepotential explana-tions for the presence ofMg-carbonatesin this locationincludingin-situformation via alterationof olivine-rich materialwith carbonic acid,transportationfrom farther up in the watershed, or precipitation of lacustrine car-bonates[2]. The formation of hydromagnesite rather than magnesite is favored when Mg2+saturated solutions have a high CO32-/HCO3-ratio, which, on Earth, is thought to be caused byinflow of groundwater [4]. Additionally, Mg-carbonates tend to precipitate under high pH condi-tions and are unstable at lower pH conditions [5]. Hy-dromagnesite is stable at atmospheric CO2pressure and temperature conditions common to most Earth surface environments [9]. However, it is subject to transfor-mation to magnesite after dehydration and concomitant brucite formation or dissolution and reprecipitation [10].Previousresearch suggests that hydrated car-bonates, including hydromagnesite, can formas weath-ering productsof mafic minerals in the presenceof H2O and CO2in subfreezing temperatures and would not de-hydrate under Martian atmospheric conditions [11,12].It is critical to understand the formation conditions of Mg-carbonatesbecause of the different implications for the past history of Martian environments. Therefore, in this work we are investigating the weathering of Mg-carbonatesin arid environments to helpbetter understand Mg-carbonates in Jezero crater. Study Area:The Ala-Mar Mines(East and West)near Ely, NVare the site ofmultiple magnesitedepositsfound within a calcareous tuff formationthat overlies Tertiary aged volcanic rocks.Here,magnesiteis formed via the alteration of the calcareous tuff and occurs innodules, veins,and lenses[13]. Previous work suggests magnesite deposits are associated with faults [13]. Within the West Mine, magnesite can be found in two maincontexts: (1) relatively circular zones of cauli-flower-like material found within (2) a more massivelensthat is heavily fractured on the surface.Methods.Samplesof both the cauliflower texture and more massive materialwere collectedat Ala Mar West Mine. Both samples were thenpowdered, sieved and analyzed with an inXitu Terra Portable XRD. The program QualX was used to identify potential mineral phases [14].Both samples were also optically inspected using 10x and 20x hand lenses.Figure 1. XRD patterns for the cauliflower magnesite (top) and massive magnesite (bottom). Ongoing and future work on the samples discussed above includes scanning electron microscopy (SEM), electron microprobe analysis (EMPA), and near-infra-red spectroscopy to determine whether hydromagnesite is present. Separation and analysis of the clay-size frac-tionby XRD will helpto better identify any phyllosili-cate phases present. Results and Discussion:Both textures are a white to light tan with a porcelain luster on weathered sur-faces, along with minor iron staining in some areas. Likewise, both textures are white with a porcelain luster on fresh surfaces. When broken apart, the massive mag-nesite shows macroscopic crystals, unlike the cauli-flower magnesite. XRD analysis shows that both samples have high concentrationsof magnesite with lesser amounts of thecarbonatemineral huntite(Mg3Ca(CO3)4; Figure1).The more massive samplecontainsa serpentine-groupmineral,with lizardite being apotential candidate. The cauliflower sample has several minor peaks that may correspond to hydromagnesite(Figure 1), although more work is needed to confirm this.Additionally, thecauliflower deposits closely resemble hydromagnesite deposits found in southwestern Turkey, formed via mi-crobialites[15].As such, it is likely that moreaqueous alterationor weatheringis occurring at the locations where the cauliflower magnesite is present. However, additional field work will need to be conducted to con-firm this hypothesis. Conclusions and Future Work:Future work will include field mapping of fault locations andadditional samplingof the different magnesite types as well as of the calcareous tuffmaterial.We will also look specifi-cally for potential weathering products of magnesite in this arid location, which may yield important insight into the Mg-carbonates located in Jezero crater. XRD analyses on aPANalytical XRDusing non-ambient stages will be used to investigate the stability of hydro-magnesiteat different humiditiesand temperatures, which has implications for samples to bereturned to Earth in the future. Additionally, thermal and evolved gas analysis of magnesite and hydromagnesite will be compared to results from Gale Craterto help interpret the mineralogy inthat location[16]. The results of this research will further ourunderstanding of carbonate for-mationin volcanic settingsandtheirweathering pro-cessesin arid environments. Acknowledgments:We acknowledge funding for this research from Jacobs Technology at the Johnson Space Center.We would also like to thank Ngoc Luu, Christopher Adcock, Richard Allanson, and the rest of the UNLV Soil Science Teamfor their continued sup-portwith troubleshooting and otherlab work. References:[1] Ehlmann, B.L., and Edwards, C.S. (2014) Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sci., 42, 291–315. [2] Horgan, B.H.N., et al. (2020) Icarus, 339, 113526. [3] Bosak, T., et al. (2013) Annual Review of Earth and Planetary Sci, 41, 21–44. [4] Pohl, W.L. (1989) Gebriider Borntraege, 28, 1-13. [5] Müller, G., et al. (1972) Die Naturwissenschaften, 59, 158–164. [6] Walter, M.R., et al. (1973) Journal of Sedimentary Pe-trology, 43, 1021–1030. [7] Braithwaite, C.J.R., and Zedef, V. (1994) Sedimentary Geology, 92, 1–5. [8] Goudge, T.A., et al. (2015) JGR: Planets, 120, 775–808. [9] Langmuir, D. (1965) Journal of Geology, 73, 730–754. [10] Zhang, P., et al. (2000) Applied Geo-chem., 286, 1748–1753. [11] Calvin, W.M., et al. (1994) JGR, 99, 14659-14675. [12]Russell, M.J., et al. (1999) Journal of the Geological Society of London, v. 156, p. 869–888. [13] Faust, G.T., and Callaghan, E. (1948) GSA Bulletin, 59, 11–74. [14] Altomare, A., et al. (2015) J. of Applied Crystallography, 48, 598–603. [15] Zedef, V.,et al. (2000) Economic Geology, 95, 429–445. [16] Leshin, L.A. et al., (2013) Science, 341, 1–9

A W Provow↗

A coupled ground heat flux–surface energy balance model of evaporation using thermal remote sensing observations

Abstract. One of the major undetermined problems in evaporation (ET) retrieval using thermal infrared remote sensing is the lack of a physically based ground heat flux (G) model and its integration within the surface energy balance (SEB) equation. Here, we present a novel approach based on coupling a thermal inertia (TI)-based mechanistic G model with an analytical surface energy balance model, Surface Temperature Initiated Closure (STIC, version STIC1.2). The coupled model is named STIC-TI. The model is driven by noon–night (13:30 and 01:30 local time) land surface temperature, surface albedo, and a vegetation index from MODIS Aqua in conjunction with a clear-sky net radiation sub-model and ancillary meteorological information. SEB flux estimates from STIC-TI were evaluated with respect to the in situ fluxes from eddy covariance measurements in diverse ecosystems of contrasting aridity in both the Northern Hemisphere and Southern Hemisphere. Sensitivity analysis revealed substantial sensitivity of STIC-TI-derived fluxes due to the land surface temperature uncertainty. An evaluation of noontime G (Gi) estimates showed 12 %–21 % error across six flux tower sites, and a comparison between STIC-TI versus empirical G models also revealed the substantially better performance of the former. While the instantaneous noontime net radiation (RNi) and latent heat flux (LEi) were overestimated (15 % and 25 %), sensible heat flux (Hi) was underestimated (22 %). Overestimation (underestimation) of LEi (Hi) was associated with the overestimation of net available energy (RNi−Gi) and use of unclosed surface energy balance flux measurements in LEi (Hi) validation. The mean percent deviations in Gi and Hi estimates were found to be strongly correlated with satellite day–night view angle difference in parabolic and linear pattern, and a relatively weak correlation was found between day–night view angle difference versus LEi deviation. Findings from this parameter-sparse coupled G–ET model can make a valuable contribution to mapping and monitoring the spatiotemporal variability of ecosystem water stress and evaporation using noon–night thermal infrared observations from future Earth observation satellite missions such as TRISHNA, LSTM, and SBG.

Bhattacharya, Bimal K.↗

The global decline in the sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation from 2001 to 2018

The sensitivity of vegetation productivity to precipitation (S ppt ) is a key metric for understanding the variations in vegetation productivity under changing precipitation and predicting future changes in ecosystem functions. However, a comprehensive assessment of S ppt over all the global land is lacking. Here, we investigated spatial patterns and temporal changes of S ppt across the global land from 2001 to 2018 with multiple streams of satellite observations. We found consistent spatial patterns of S ppt with different satellite products: S ppt was highest in dry regions while low in humid regions. Grassland and shrubland showed the highest S ppt , and evergreen needle-leaf forest and wetland showed the lowest. Temporally, S ppt showed a generally declining trend over the past two decades (p < .05), yet with clear spatial heterogeneities. The decline in S ppt was especially noticeable in North America and Europe, likely due to the increase in precipitation. In central Russia and Australia, however, S ppt showed an increasing trend. Biome-wise, most ecosystem types exhibited significant decrease in S ppt , while grassland, evergreen broadleaf forest, and mixed forest showed slight increases or non-significant changes in S ppt . Our finding of the overall decline in S ppt implies a potential stabilization mechanism for ecosystem productivity under climate change. However, the revealed S ppt increase for some regions and ecosystem types, in particular global grasslands, suggests that grasslands might be increasingly vulnerable to climatic variability with continuing global climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Complexities of urban impacts on long-term seasonal trends in a mid-sized arid city

The variability of surface air temperature is of great importance for both society and the environment, is impacted by global warming and local-scale changes. In the arid eastern part of Washington state of USA, substantial urbanization has transformed the Tri-cities into the state’s third-largest urban cluster. This study utilizes a combination of in situ observations and reanalysis datasets to investigate the influence of land use changes on the region’s 2-meter temperature, revealing local effects that compensate for the background global warming. Within the urban fabric, distinct microclimates have emerged due to varying land use, establishing unique relationships between greenness and temperature alterations caused by land use transitions. Notably, our findings demonstrate that the observed compensating signal in the temperature of farmland locations is primarily attributed to local vegetation increases. Through these observations, this research highlights the urban impacts on local climate, offering valuable insights into the complexities surrounding land use and its consequences on the environment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Remote sensing as an aid to community development in an arid area

High-altitude color infrared photography of a 70,000 acre site north of Tucson, Ariz., has been used to construct maps for land-use planning. Remote sensing data on land use, soil type, vegetation type, ground water recharge areas, and slope were categorized and digitized. Individual categories were assigned ranks indicating their suitability for urban development. Maps of individual characteristics were weighted according to their importance in a given land-use decision, and composite maps indicating good, average, and poor locations for a given type of development were plotted. These composite maps were found to be in good agreement with ground truth results.

Foster, K. E.↗

The three major axes of terrestrial ecosystem function

The leaf economics spectrum and the global spectrum of plant forms and functions revealed fundamental axes of variation in plant traits, which represent different ecological strategies that are shaped by the evolutionary development of plant species. Ecosystem functions depend on environmental conditions and the traits of species that comprise the ecological communities. However, the axes of variation of ecosystem functions are largely unknown, which limits our understanding of how ecosystems respond as a whole to anthropogenic drivers, climate and environmental variability. Here we derive a set of ecosystem functions from a dataset of surface gas exchange measurements across major terrestrial biomes. We find that most of the variability within ecosystem functions (71.8%) is captured by three key axes. The first axis reflects maximum ecosystem productivity and is mostly explained by vegetation structure. The second axis reflects ecosystem water-use strategies and is jointly explained by variation in vegetation height and climate. The third axis, which represents ecosystem carbon-use efficiency, features a gradient related to aridity, and is explained primarily by variation in vegetation structure. We show that two state-of-the-art land surface models reproduce the first and most important axis of ecosystem functions. However, the models tend to simulate more strongly correlated functions than those observed, which limits their ability to accurately predict the full range of responses to environmental changes in carbon, water and energy cycling in terrestrial ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The Geologic Remote Sensing Field Experiment (GRSFE): The first geology multisensor airborne campaign

The primary objective of the Geologic Remote Sensing Field Experiment (GRSFE) is to acquire relevant data for geological sites that can be used to test models for extraction of surface property information from remote sensing data for earth, Mars and Venus in support of the Earth Observing System (EOS), Mars Observer, and Magellan, respectively. Over forty scientists from eight universities and three NASA centers are participating in GRSFE which is co-sponsored by the NASA Planetary Geology and Geophysics Program and the NASA Geology Program. Highlights of the airborne campaign included the first simultaneous acquisition of Airborne Visible and Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVRIS) and Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) data on September 29, 1989, and acquisition of Advanced Solid-State Array Spectroradiometer (ASAS), Polarimetric Synthetic Aperture Radar (AIRSAR), and Airborne Terrain Laser Altimeter System (ATLAS) data all within three months of each other. The sites covered were Lunar Crater Volcanic Field and Fish Lake Valley in Nevada; and Cima Volcanic Field, Death Valley, and Ubehebe Crater in California. Coincident field measurements included meteorological and atmospheric measurements, visible/near-infrared and thermal spectra, and characterization of geology and vegetation cover. The GRSFE airborne and field data will be reduced to a suite of standard products and submitted, along with appropriate documentation, to the Planetary Data System (PDS) and the Pilot Land Data System (PLDS). These data will be used for a variety of investigations including paleoclimatic studies in the arid southwestern United States, and analysis of Magellan data. GRSFE data will also be used to support Mars Observer Laser Altimeter (MOLA) and Mars Rover Sample Return (MRSR) simulation studies.

Evans, Diane L.↗

Machine Learning Classification Strategy to Improve Streamflow Estimates in Diverse River Basins in the Colorado River Basin

Streamflow in the Colorado River Basin (CRB) is significantly altered by human activities including land use/cover alterations, reservoir operation, irrigation, and water exports. Climate is also highly varied across the CRB which contains snowpack-dominated watersheds and arid, precipitation-dominated basins. Recently, machine learning methods have improved the generalizability and accuracy of streamflow models. Previous successes with LSTM modeling have primarily focused on unimpacted basins, and few studies have included human impacted systems in either regional or single-basin modeling. We demonstrate that the diverse hydrological behavior of river basins in the CRB are too difficult to model with a single, regional model. We propose a method to delineate catchments into categories based on the level of predictability, hydrological characteristics, and the level of human influence. Lastly, we model streamflow in each category with climate and anthropogenic proxy data sets and use feature importance methods to assess whether model performance improves with additional relevant data. Overall, land use cover data at a low temporal resolution was not sufficient to capture the irregular patterns of reservoir releases, demonstrating the importance of having high-resolution reservoir release data sets at a global scale. On the other hand, the classification approach reduced the complexity of the data and has the potential to improve streamflow forecasts in human-altered regions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Land Surface Temperature Measurements from EOS MODIS Data

This report summarizes the accomplishments made by the MODIS LST (Land-Surface Temperature) group at University of California, Santa Barbara, under NASA Contract. Version 1 of the MODIS Land-Surface Temperature Algorithm Theoretical Basis Document (ATBD) was reviewed in June 1994, version 2 reviewed in November 1994, version 3.1 in August 1996, and version 3.3 updated in April 1999. Based on the ATBD, two LST algorithms were developed, one is the generalized split-window algorithm and another is the physics-based day/night LST algorithm. These two LST algorithms were implemented into the production generation executive code (PGE 16) for the daily standard MODIS LST products at level-2 (MODII-L2) and level-3 (MODIIA1 at 1 km resolution and MODIIB1 at 5km resolution). PGE codes for 8-day 1 km LST product (MODIIA2) and the daily, 8-day and monthly LST products at 0.05 degree latitude/longitude climate model grids (CMG) were also delivered. Four to six field campaigns were conducted each year since 2000 to validate the daily LST products generated by PGE16 and the calibration accuracies of the MODIS TIR bands used for the LST/emissivity retrieval from versions 2-4 of Terra MODIS data and versions 3-4 of Aqua MODIS data. Validation results from temperature-based and radiance-based methods indicate that the MODIS LST accuracy is better than 1 C in most clear-sky cases in the range from -10 to 58 C. One of the major lessons learn from multi- year temporal analysis of the consistent V4 daily Terra MODIS LST products in 2000-2003 over some selected target areas including lakes, snow/ice fields, and semi-arid sites is that there are variable numbers of cloud-contaminated LSTs in the MODIS LST products depending on surface elevation, land cover types, and atmospheric conditions. A cloud-screen scheme with constraints on spatial and temporal variations in LSTs was developed to remove cloud-contaminated LSTs. The 5km LST product was indirectly validated through comparisons to the 1 km LST product. Twenty three papers related to the LST research work were published in journals over the last decade.

Wan, Zheng-Ming↗

Land use in the northern Coachella Valley

Satellite imagery has proved to have great utility for monitoring land use change and as a data source for regional planning. In California, open space desert resources are under severe pressure to serve as a source for recreational gratification to individuals living in the heavily populated southern coastal plain. Concern for these sensitive arid environments has been expressed by both federal and state agencies. The northern half of the Coachella Valley has historically served as a focal point for weekend recreational activity and second homes. Since demand in this area has remained high, land use change from rural to urban residential has been occurring continuously since 1968. This area of rapid change is an ideal site to illustrate the utility of satellite imagery as a data source for planning information, and has served as the areal focus of this investigation.

Bale, J. B.↗

Disentangling natural and anthropogenic effects on benthic macroinvertebrate assemblages in western US streams

Abstract Stream macroinvertebrate assemblages are shaped by natural and human‐related factors that operate through complex hierarchical pathways. Quantifying these relationships can provide additional insights into stream ecological assessment. We applied a structural equation modeling framework to evaluate hypothesized pathways by which watershed, riparian, and in‐stream factors affect benthic macroinvertebrate condition in the Western Mountains (WMT) and Xeric (XER) ecoregions in the United States. We developed a conceptual model grounded in theory, empirical evidence, and expert opinion to evaluate the following hypotheses: (1) macroinvertebrate assemblages are primarily driven by proximal, in‐stream factors (e.g., water quality and physical habitat); (2) anthropogenic land uses affect macroinvertebrates indirectly by altering in‐stream characteristics; and (3) riparian vegetation cover attenuates land use effects. We tested our model separately on three measures of benthic macroinvertebrate assemblage condition: ratio of observed‐to‐expected taxonomic richness (O/E); a multimetric index (MMI); and richness of Ephemeroptera, Plecoptera, and Trichoptera taxa (EPT). In the WMT, site‐level riparian cover, in‐stream physical habitat (relative bed stability), and water chemistry (total nitrogen) were the top three predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages, each having over two times the magnitude of effect on macroinvertebrates compared with watershed‐level predictors. In the arid XER, annual precipitation and stream flow characteristics were top predictors of macroinvertebrate assemblages and had similar magnitudes of effect as in‐stream water chemistry. Path analyses revealed that land use activities in the watershed and at the stream site degraded macroinvertebrate assemblages indirectly by altering relative bed stability, water quality, and riparian cover/complexity. Increased riparian cover was associated with greater macroinvertebrate condition by reducing land use impacts on stream flow, streambed substrate, and water quality, but the pathways differed among ecoregions. In the WMT, site‐level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages partly through indirect pathways associated with greater streambed stability and reduced total nitrogen concentrations. In contrast, in the XER, watershed‐level riparian cover affected macroinvertebrate assemblages through greater specific stream power. Identifying the relative effects of and pathways by which natural and anthropogenic factors affect macroinvertebrates can serve as a framework for prioritizing management and conservation efforts.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Uncertainties in Evapotranspiration Estimates over West Africa

An evapotranspiration (ET) ensemble composed of 36 land surface model (LSM) experiments and four diagnostic datasets (GLEAM, ALEXI, MOD16, and FLUXNET) is used to investigate uncertainties in ET estimate over five climate regions in West Africa. Diagnostic ET datasets show lower uncertainty estimates and smaller seasonal variations than the LSM-based ET values, particularly in the humid climate regions. Overall, the impact of the choice of LSMs and meteorological forcing datasets on the modeled ET rates increases from north to south. The LSM formulations and parameters have the largest impact on ET in humid regions, contributing to 90% of the ET uncertainty estimates. Precipitation contributes to the ET uncertainty primarily in arid regions. The LSM-based ET estimates are sensitive to the uncertainty of net radiation in arid region and precipitation in humid region. This study serves as support for better determining water availability for agriculture and livelihoods in Africa with earth observations and land surface models.

land surface model↗

Spatial heterogeneity effects on land surface modeling of water and energy partitioning

Abstract. Understanding the influence of land surface heterogeneity on surface water and energy fluxes is crucial for modeling earth system variability and change. This study investigates the effects of four dominant heterogeneity sources on land surface modeling, including atmospheric forcing (ATM), soil properties (SOIL), land use and land cover (LULC), and topography (TOPO). Our analysis focused on their impacts on the partitioning of precipitation (P) into evapotranspiration (ET) and runoff (R), partitioning of net radiation into sensible heat and latent heat, and corresponding water and energy fluxes. An initial set of 16 experiments were performed over the continental US (CONUS) using the E3SM land model (ELMv1) with different combinations of heterogeneous and homogeneous datasets. The Sobol' total and first-order sensitivity indices were utilized to quantify the relative importance of the four heterogeneity sources. Sobol' total sensitivity index measures the total heterogeneity effects induced by a given heterogeneity source, consisting of the contribution from its own heterogeneity (i.e., the first-order index) and its interactions with other heterogeneity sources. ATM and LULC are the most dominant heterogeneity sources in determining spatial variability of water and energy partitioning, mainly contributed by their own heterogeneity and slightly contributed by their interactions with other heterogeneity sources. Their heterogeneity effects are complementary, both spatially and temporally. The overall impacts of SOIL and TOPO are negligible, except TOPO dominates the spatial variability of R/P across the transitional climate zone between the arid western and humid eastern CONUS. Accounting for more heterogeneity sources improves the simulated spatial variability of water and energy fluxes when compared with ERA5-Land reanalysis dataset. An additional set of 13 experiments identified the most critical components within each heterogeneity source, which are precipitation, temperature, and longwave radiation for ATM, soil texture, and soil color for SOIL and maximum fractional saturated area parameter for TOPO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Global variations in critical drought thresholds that impact vegetation

ABSTRACT Identifying the thresholds of drought that, if crossed, suppress vegetation functioning is vital for accurate quantification of how land ecosystems respond to climate variability and change. We present a globally applicable framework to identify drought thresholds for vegetation responses to different levels of known soil-moisture deficits using four remotely sensed vegetation proxies spanning 2001–2018. The thresholds identified represent critical inflection points for changing vegetation responses from highly resistant to highly vulnerable in response to drought stress, and as a warning signal for substantial vegetation impacts. Drought thresholds varied geographically, with much lower percentiles of soil-moisture anomalies in vegetated areas covered by more forests, corresponding to a comparably stronger capacity to mitigate soil water deficit stress in forested ecosystems. Generally, those lower thresholds are detected in more humid climates. State-of-the-art land models, however, overestimated thresholds of soil moisture (i.e. overestimating drought impacts), especially in more humid areas with higher forest covers and arid areas with few forest covers. Based on climate model projections, we predict that the risk of vegetation damage will increase by the end of the twenty-first century in some hotspots like East Asia, Europe, Amazon, southern Australia and eastern and southern Africa. Our data-based results will inform projections on future drought impacts on terrestrial ecosystems and provide an effective tool for drought management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Predictive Risk Mapping of Schistosomiasis in Madagascar Using Ecological Niche Modeling and Precision Mapping

Schistosomiasis is a neglected tropical disease (NTD) found throughout tropical and subtropical Africa. In Madagascar, the condition is widespread and endemic in 74% of all administrative districts in the country. Despite the significant burden of the disease, high-resolution risk maps have yet to be produced to guide national control programs. This study used an ecological niche modeling (ENM) and precision mapping approach to estimate environmental suitability and disease transmission risk. The results show that suitability for schistosomiasis is widespread and covers 264,781 km 2 (102,232 sq miles). Covariates of significance to the model were the accessibility to cities, distance to water, enhanced vegetation index (EVI), annual mean temperature, land surface temperature (LST), clay content, and annual precipitation. Disease transmission risk is greatest in the central highlands, tropical east coast, arid-southwest, and northwest. An estimated 14.9 million people could be at risk of schistosomiasis; 11.4 million reside in rural areas, while 3.5 million are in urban areas. This study provides valuable insight into the geography of schistosomiasis in Madagascar and its potential risk to human populations. Because of the focal nature of the disease, these maps can inform national surveillance programs while improving understanding of areas in need of medical interventions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Role of uncertainties in protecting ecological resources during remediation and restoration

Cleanup of contaminated waste sites is a National priority to protect human health and the environment, while restoring land to productive uses. While there are uncertainties with under standing risk to individuals from exposure, the aim of this study was to focus on uncertainties and complexities for ecological systems, complicated by hundreds of species occupying any remediation site which participate in multiple-interacting food webs. The ability to better predict the effectiveness of remediation in fostering future ecosystems might facilitate remedy selection and improve strategic environmental management. This investigation examined (1) uncertainties in ecosystem processes, (2) uncertainties in exposure from contamination before remediation, and (3) uncertainties during remediation. Two Department of Energy sites Hanford Site and Savannah River Site were used as case studies to illustrate how the uncertainties affect eco-receptors. Several types of ecological, physical, and human dimension uncertainties are defined. Ecological uncertainties include temporal, spatial, individual, developmental, and exogenous types. Physical uncertainties are weather-related, watershed variations, slope/aspect, soil/sediment structure and form, unforeseen events, and temporal patterns. Human dimension uncertainties include current land use, future land use, extractive and non-extractive recreation. The effects of remedial strategies varied between the two sites because Hanford is a primarily arid shrub-steppe ecotype, while Savannah River is a wet forest ecotype. Defining the associated ecological sensitivities and uncertainties and providing examples might help policy-makers, managers, planners, and contractors to be aware of issues to consider throughout planning, remediation, and restoration. Adding ecological uncertainty analysis to risk evaluations and remediation planning is analogous to using safety factors in human health risk assessment.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

The application of remotely sensed data to pedologic and geomorphic mapping on alluvial fan and playa surfaces in Saline Valley, California

Arid and semiarid regions yield excellent opportunities for the study of pedologic and geomorphic processes. The dominance of rock and soil exposure over vegetation not only provides the ground observer with observational possibilities but also affords good opportunities for measurement by aircraft and satellite remote sensor devices. Previous studies conducted in the area of pedologic and geomorphic mapping in arid regions with remotely sensed data have utilized information obtained in the visible to near-infrared portion of the spectrum. Thermal Infrared Multispectral Scanner (TIMS) and Thematic Mapping (TM) data collected in 1984 are being used in comjunction with maps compiled during a Bureau of Land Management (BLM) soil survey to aid in a detailed mapping of alluvial fan and playa surfaces within the valley. The results from this study may yield valuable information concerning the application of thermal data and thermal/visible data combinations to the problem of dating pedologic and geomorphic features in arid regions.

Miller, D. A.↗