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At least 163 records · Page 9

Hybrid (PDE+ML) models in the context of land ice modeling

Focal Area(s): Primary focal areas are: predictive modeling through the use of AI-derived model components; advanced methods including network design/optimization/deep learning. Science Challenge: The atmospheric, ocean and ice dynamics components of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) are governed by Partial Differential Equations (PDEs) and significant efforts have been made during the last decades to develop such computational models. Here we propose to fundamentally improve these PDE-based codes by enhancing them with Machine Learning (ML) sub-models for complex, poorly understood physical processes in the context of ice sheet modeling. We propose to train these models with a novel approach that allows the assimilation of the different sources of data available (direct/indirect observations and possibly simulation data), improving on existing simplified models. We also highlight computational challenges originating from the coexistence of PDE-based and ML-based models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improved ELMv1-ECA simulations of zero-curtain periods and cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions at Alaskan Arctic tundra sites

Field measurements have shown that cold-season methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions contribute a substantial portion to the annual net carbon emissions in permafrost regions. However, most earth system land models do not accurately reproduce cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions, especially over the shoulder (i.e., thawing and freezing) seasons. Here we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model version 1 (ELMv1-ECA) to tackle this challenge and fill the knowledge gap of how cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions contribute to the annual totals at Alaska Arctic tundra sites. Specifically, we improved the ELMv1-ECA soil water phase-change scheme, environmental controls on microbial activity, and the methane module. Results demonstrate that both soil temperature and the duration of zero-curtain periods (i.e., the fall period when soil temperatures linger around 0°C) simulated by the updated ELMv1-ECA were greatly improved; e.g., the mean absolute error (MAE) in zero-curtain durations at 12 cm depth was reduced by 62 % on average. Furthermore, the MAEs of simulated cold-season carbon emissions at three tundra sites were improved by 72 % and 70 % on average for CH 4 and CO 2 , respectively. Overall, CH 4 emitted during the early cold season (September and October), which often includes most of the zero-curtain period in Arctic tundra, accounted for more than 50 % of the total emissions throughout the entire cold season (September to May) in the model, compared with around 49.4 % (43 %–58 %) in observations. From 1950 to 2017, both CO 2 emissions during the zero-curtain period and during the entire cold season showed increasing trends, for example, of 0.17 and 0.36 gC m -2 yr -1 at Atqasuk. This study highlights the importance of zero-curtain periods in facilitating cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from tundra ecosystems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Achieving Realistic Runoff in the Western United States with a Land Surface Model Forced by Dynamically Downscaled Meteorology

Abstract In this study, we calibrate a regional climate model’s (RCM) underlying land surface model (LSM). In addition to providing a realistic representation of runoff across the hydroclimatically diverse western United States, this is done to take advantage of the RCM’s ability to physically resolve meteorological forcing data in ungauged regions, and to prepare the calibrated hydrologic model for tight coupling, or the ability to represent land surface–atmosphere interactions, with the RCM. Specifically, we use a 9-km resolution meteorological forcing dataset across the western United States, from the fifth generation ECMWF Reanalysis (ERA5) downscaled by the Weather Research Forecasting (WRF) regional climate model, as an offline forcing for Noah-Multiparameterization (Noah-MP). We detail the steps involved in producing an LSM capable of accurately representing runoff, including physical parameterization selection, parameter calibration, and regionalization to ungauged basins. Based on our model evaluation from 1954 to 2021 for 586 basins with daily natural streamflow, the streamflow bias is reduced from 24.2% to 4.4%, and the median daily Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) is improved from 0.12 to 0.36. When validating against basins with monthly natural streamflow data, we obtain a similar reduction in bias and a median monthly NSE improvement from 0.18 to 0.56. In this study, we also discover the optimal setup when using a donor-basin method to regionalize parameters to ungauged basins, which can vary by 0.06 NSE for unique designs of this regionalization method. Significance Statement This study provides useful guidance for improving a land surface model to accurately represent runoff across a spatially extensive and hydroclimatically diverse region (the western United States). The land surface model is updated to represent runoff more accurately at gauged basins, and then additionally updated for basins without observational data using a mathematical approach called the donor-basin method. We make use of a regional climate model’s reanalysis-derived meteorological data and its underlying land surface model to achieve realistic runoff. The calibrated land surface model can thus be tightly coupled in subsequent studies in a manner that should more accurately reflect runoff conditions. Findings from this study will serve as a useful reference for the atmospheric (and hydrologic) modeling communities and their ability to represent large-scale hydrology accurately.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗

Internal Physical Features of a Land Surface Model Employing a Tangent Linear Model

The Earth's land surface, including its biomass, is an integral part of the Earth's weather and climate system. Land surface heterogeneity, such as the type and amount of vegetative covering., has a profound effect on local weather variability and therefore on regional variations of the global climate. Surface conditions affect local weather and climate through a number of mechanisms. First, they determine the re-distribution of the net radiative energy received at the surface, through the atmosphere, from the sun. A certain fraction of this energy increases the surface ground temperature, another warms the near-surface atmosphere, and the rest evaporates surface water, which in turn creates clouds and causes precipitation. Second, they determine how much rainfall and snowmelt can be stored in the soil and how much instead runs off into waterways. Finally, surface conditions influence the near-surface concentration and distribution of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide. The processes through which these mechanisms interact with the atmosphere can be modeled mathematically, to within some degree of uncertainty, on the basis of underlying physical principles. Such a land surface model provides predictive capability for surface variables including ground temperature, surface humidity, and soil moisture and temperature. This information is important for agriculture and industry, as well as for addressing fundamental scientific questions concerning global and local climate change. In this study we apply a methodology known as tangent linear modeling to help us understand more deeply, the behavior of the Mosaic land surface model, a model that has been developed over the past several years at NASA/GSFC. This methodology allows us to examine, directly and quantitatively, the dependence of prediction errors in land surface variables upon different vegetation conditions. The work also highlights the importance of accurate soil moisture information. Although surface variables are predicted imperfectly due to inherent uncertainties in the modeling process, our study suggests how satellite observations can be combined with the model, through land surface data assimilation, to improve their prediction.

Yang, Runhua↗

Forward-looking Assimilation of MODIS-derived Snow Covered Area into a Land Surface Model

Snow cover over land has a significant impact on the surface radiation budget, turbulent energy fluxes to the atmosphere, and local hydrological fluxes. For this reason, inaccuracies in the representation of snow covered area (SCA) within a land surface model (LSM) can lead to substantial errors in both offline and coupled simulations. Data assimilation algorithms have the potential to address this problem. However, the assimilation of SCA observations is complicated by an information deficit in the observation SCA indicates only the presence or absence of snow, and not snow volume and by the fact that assimilated SCA observations can introduce inconsistencies with atmospheric forcing data, leading to non-physical artifacts in the local water balance. In this paper we present a novel assimilation algorithm that introduces MODIS SCA observations to the Noah LSM in global, uncoupled simulations. The algorithm utilizes observations from up to 72 hours ahead of the model simulation in order to correct against emerging errors in the simulation of snow cover while preserving the local hydrologic balance. This is accomplished by using future snow observations to adjust air temperature and, when necessary, precipitation within the LSM. In global, offline integrations, this new assimilation algorithm provided improved simulation of SCA and snow water equivalent relative to open loop integrations and integrations that used an earlier SCA assimilation algorithm. These improvements, in turn, influenced the simulation of surface water and energy fluxes both during the snow season and, in some regions, on into the following spring.

Zaitchik, Benjamin F.↗

Similarity Assessment of Land Surface Model Outputs in the North American Land Data Assimilation System

Multimodel ensembles are often used to produce ensemble mean estimates that tend to have increased simulation skill over any individual model output. If multimodel outputs are too similar, an individual LSM would add little additional information to the multimodel ensemble, whereas if the models are too dissimilar, it may be indicative of systematic errors in their formulations or configurations. The article presents a formal similarity assessment of the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS) multimodel ensemble outputs to assess their utility to the ensemble, using a confirmatory factor analysis. Outputs from four NLDAS Phase 2 models currently running in operations at NOAA/NCEP and four new/ upgraded models that are under consideration for the next phase of NLDAS are employed in this study. The results show that the runoff estimates from the LSMs were most dissimilar whereas the models showed greater similarity for root zone soil moisture, snow water equivalent, and terrestrial water storage. Generally, the NLDAS operational models showed weaker association with the common factor of the ensemble and the newer versions of the LSMs showed stronger association with the common factor, with the model similarity increasing at longer time scales. Trade-offs between the similarity metrics and accuracy measures indicated that the NLDAS operational models demonstrate a larger span in the similarity-accuracy space compared to the new LSMs. The results of the article indicate that simultaneous consideration of model similarity and accuracy at the relevant time scales is necessary in the development of multimodel ensemble.

land surface models↗

Translation of Land Surface Model Accuracy and Uncertainty into Coupled Land-Atmosphere Prediction

Land-atmosphere (L-A) Interactions playa critical role in determining the diurnal evolution of both planetary boundary layer (PBL) and land surface heat and moisture budgets, as well as controlling feedbacks with clouds and precipitation that lead to the persistence of dry and wet regimes. Recent efforts to quantify the strength of L-A coupling in prediction models have produced diagnostics that integrate across both the land and PBL components of the system. In this study, we examine the impact of improved specification of land surface states, anomalies, and fluxes on coupled WRF forecasts during the summers of extreme dry (2006) and wet (2007) land surface conditions in the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The improved land initialization and surface flux parameterizations are obtained through the use of a new optimization and uncertainty estimation module in NASA's Land Information System (US-OPT/UE), whereby parameter sets are calibrated in the Noah land surface model and classified according to a land cover and soil type mapping of the observation sites to the full model domain. The impact of calibrated parameters on the a) spinup of the land surface used as initial conditions, and b) heat and moisture states and fluxes of the coupled WRF Simulations are then assessed in terms of ambient weather and land-atmosphere coupling along with measures of uncertainty propagation into the forecasts. In addition, the sensitivity of this approach to the period of calibration (dry, wet, average) is investigated. Finally, tradeoffs of computational tractability and scientific validity, and the potential for combining this approach with satellite remote sensing data are also discussed.

Santanello, Joseph A.↗

FORWARD AND INVERSE L-BAND RADIATIVE TRANSFER MODELING OVER THE DRY CHACO, USING SMOS OBSERVATIONS, LAND SURFACE MODELING AND IN SITU DATA

Passive microwave L-band remote sensing is well known for its sensitivity to surface soil moisture over land.The signal is also affected by other dynamic variables such as vegetation and soil salinity. In this research, L-band microwave observations of the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission are used to explore soil surface salinity, moisture and vegetation, in the Argentinean Dry Chaco, an area with possible emerging dryland salinity. A Radiative Transfer Model (RTM) with inclusion of a correction to the soil’s dielectric constant for salinity was used in forward and inverse mode, using either in situ data or Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM) simulations as RTM input. The forward analysis pointed out shortcomings in the modeled soil moisture and soil surface temperature estimates. The impact of salinity on forward simulations over the Dry Chaco was limited.The RTM inversion using 10 years of SMOS brightness temperature observations resulted in realistic estimates of vegetation and roughness, both with and withouto ptimizing a correction term for the dielectric constant in terms of salinity equivalents. However,the retrieval of the correction term to the dielectric constant was very uncertain and not representative of soil surface salinity, but rather of open water, texture uncertainty or soil moisture bias.

L-band↗

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM2): Improved subgrid hillslope hydrologic connectivity

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra hillslope hydrologic processes into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The current ELM represents water movement primarily through vertical processes, such as precipitation, canopy interception, evaporation, infiltration, and soil water movement. Lateral water movement—such as surface runoff, subsurface flow, and river transport—plays a significant role in the hydrological cycle, especially in regions with varied topography. While E3SM includes a runoff routing component representing water transport in the river network, the lateral transport of water at the subgrid scale within the land model has previously not been taken into account. With the recent development of topographic units within the ELM subgrid data structure, there is an opportunity to simulate hillslope hydrologic connectivity by introducing water transport along topographic gradients. We expect that more realistic representation of hillslope hydrologic processes will lead to improved predictions of both soil water content and river network flows. Lateral transport of water at and near the surface is represented as a sub-grid process in this new code development. Water is tracked as it moves from higher to lower elevations within a gridcell. This capability uses the nested hierarchical sub-grid scheme within ELM to connect water fluxes from sub-grid elements with higher elevation to those with lower elevation. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the hillslope hydrology processes added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗

Challenging a Global Land Surface Model in a Local Socio-Environmental System

Land surface models (LSMs) predict how terrestrial fluxes of carbon, water, and energy change with abiotic drivers to inform the other components of Earth system models. Here, we focus on a single human-dominated watershed in southwestern Michigan, USA. We compare multiple processes in a commonly used LSM, the Community Land Model (CLM), to observational data at the single grid cell scale. For model inputs, we show correlations (Pearson’s R) ranging from 0.46 to 0.81 for annual temperature and precipitation, but a substantial mismatch between land cover distributions and their changes over time, with CLM correctly representing total agricultural area, but assuming large areas of natural grasslands where forests grow in reality. For CLM processes (outputs), seasonal changes in leaf area index (LAI; phenology) do not track satellite estimates well, and peak LAI in CLM is nearly double the satellite record (5.1 versus 2.8). Estimates of greenness and productivity, however, are more similar between CLM and observations. Summer soil moisture tracks in timing but not magnitude. Land surface reflectance (albedo) shows significant positive correlations in the winter, but not in the summer. Looking forward, key areas for model improvement include land cover distribution estimates, phenology algorithms, summertime radiative transfer modelling, and plant stress responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Performance Tests of Snow-Related Variables Over the Tibetan Plateau and Himalayas Using a New Version of NASA GEOS-5 Land Surface Model that Includes the Snow Darkening Effect

The snow darkening effect, i.e. the reduction of snow albedo, is caused by absorption of solar radiation by absorbing aerosols (dust, black carbon, and organic carbon) deposited on the snow surface. This process is probably important over Himalayan and Tibetan glaciers due to the transport of highly polluted Atmospheric Brown Cloud (ABC) from the Indo-Gangetic Plain (IGP). This effect has been incorporated into the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System model, version 5 (GEOS-5) atmospheric transport model. The Catchment land surface model (LSM) used in GEOS-5 considers 3 snow layers. Code was developed to track the mass concentration of aerosols in the three layers, taking into account such processes as the flushing of the compounds as liquid water percolates through the snowpack. In GEOS-5, aerosol emissions, transports, and depositions are well simulated in the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GO CART) module; we recently made the connection between GOCART and the GEOS-5 system fitted with the revised LSM. Preliminary simulations were performed with this new system in "replay" mode (i.e., with atmospheric dynamics guided by reanalysis) at 2x2.5 degree horizontal resolution, covering the period 1 November 2005 - 31 December 2009; we consider the final three years of simulation here. The three simulations used the following variants of the LSM: (1) the original Catchment LSM with a fixed fresh snowfall density of 150 kg m-3 ; (2) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code, used here without aerosol deposition but with changes in density formulation and melting water effect on snow specific surface area, (3) the LSM fitted with the new snow albedo code as same as (2) but with fixed aerosol deposition rates (computed from GOCART values averaged over the Tibetan Plateau domain [Ion.: 60-120E; lat.: 20-50N] during March-May 2008) applied to all grid points at every time step. For (2) and (3), the same setting on the fresh snowfall density as in (1) was used.

Yasunari, Tppei J.↗

NGEE Arctic Integrated Modeling (IM3): Improved snow-vegetation interaction

This data product represents the integration of new code capability for arctic tundra snow-vegetation-terrain interactions into the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM), through the E3SM Land Model (ELM) component. This code integration is the result of collaborative effort between the NGEE Arctic project and the E3SM project. The NGEE Arctic project developed a total of six Integrated Modeling (IM) modules informed by observations and experiments. New ELM capability represented by this data product (IM3) falls into three categories: 1) Downscaling from gridcell to topographic unit level when working through the existing coupler bypass code. 2) Four new parameters (taper, stocking, bendresist, and vegshape) have been added to ELM to allow for flexible definition of snow-vegetation interactions. 3) Vegshape and bendresist parameters are used to calculate the fraction of leaf area and/or stem area buried by snow for a given snow depth. This data record consists of a single document (pdf format) that describes the theoretical basis for the snow-vegetation-terrain interactions added to ELM, and describes the modifications made to the ELM code. The Methods section of this metadata record includes a link to the public E3SM code repository where the exact code modifications as integrated in E3SM can be accessed. The Next-Generation Ecosystem Experiments: Arctic (NGEE Arctic), was a research effort to reduce uncertainty in Earth System Models by developing a predictive understanding of carbon-rich Arctic ecosystems and feedbacks to climate. NGEE Arctic was supported by the Department of Energy's Office of Biological and Environmental Research. The NGEE Arctic project had two field research sites: 1) located within the Arctic polygonal tundra coastal region on the Barrow Environmental Observatory (BEO) and the North Slope near Utqiagvik (Barrow), Alaska and 2) multiple areas on the discontinuous permafrost region of the Seward Peninsula north of Nome, Alaska. Through observations, experiments, and synthesis with existing datasets, NGEE Arctic provided an enhanced knowledge base for multi-scale modeling and contributed to improved process representation at global pan-Arctic scales within the Department of Energy's Earth system Model (the Energy Exascale Earth System Model, or E3SM), and specifically within the E3SM Land Model component (ELM).

Thornton, Peter E [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000247595158)↗

Identifying and Addressing Land Surface Model Deficiencies with Data Assimilation

Land surface models (LSMs) encapsulate our understanding of terrestrial water and energy cycle physics and provide estimates of land surface states and fluxes when and where measurement gaps exist. Gaps in our understanding of the physics are a different issue. Data assimilation can address that issue both directly, through updating of prognostic model variables, or indirectly, when the simulated world conflicts with observation, necessitating adjustment of the model. Here we will focus on the latter case and present several examples, including (1) depth to bedrock adjustment to accommodate assimilated GRACE terrestrial water storage data; (2) steps to prevent immediate melting of assimilated snow cover; (3) irrigation's contribution to evapotranspiration; (4) lessons learned from soil moisture data assimilation; (5) the potential impact of satellite based runoff observation

Rodell, Matthew↗

A method for landing gear modeling and simulation with experimental validation

This document presents an approach for modeling and simulating landing gear systems. Specifically, a nonlinear model of an A-6 Intruder Main Gear is developed, simulated, and validated against static and dynamic test data. This model includes nonlinear effects such as a polytropic gas model, velocity squared damping, a geometry governed model for the discharge coefficients, stick-slip friction effects and a nonlinear tire spring and damping model. An Adams-Moulton predictor corrector was used to integrate the equations of motion until a discontinuity caused by a stick-slip friction model was reached, at which point, a Runga-Kutta routine integrated past the discontinuity and returned the problem solution back to the predictor corrector. Run times of this software are around 2 mins. per 1 sec. of simulation under dynamic circumstances. To validate the model, engineers at the Aircraft Landing Dynamics facilities at NASA Langley Research Center installed one A-6 main gear on a drop carriage and used a hydraulic shaker table to provide simulated runway inputs to the gear. Model parameters were tuned to produce excellent agreement for many cases.

Daniels, James N.↗

Applicability of land use models for the Houston area test site

Descriptions of land use models are presented which were considered for their applicability to the Houston Area Test Site. These models are representative both of the prevailing theories of land use dynamics and of basic approaches to simulation. The models considered are: a model of metropolis, land use simulation model, emperic land use forecasting model, a probabilistic model for residential growth, and the regional environmental management allocation process. Sources of environmental/resource information are listed.

Petersburg, R. K.↗

Land Surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) - A Generalized Framework for Land Surface Model Evaluation

Model evaluation and verification are key in improving the usage and applicability of simulation models for real-world applications. In this article, the development and capabilities of a formal system for land surface model evaluation called the Land surface Verification Toolkit (LVT) is described. LVT is designed to provide an integrated environment for systematic land model evaluation and facilitates a range of verification approaches and analysis capabilities. LVT operates across multiple temporal and spatial scales and employs a large suite of in-situ, remotely sensed and other model and reanalysis datasets in their native formats. In addition to the traditional accuracy-based measures, LVT also includes uncertainty and ensemble diagnostics, information theory measures, spatial similarity metrics and scale decomposition techniques that provide novel ways for performing diagnostic model evaluations. Though LVT was originally designed to support the land surface modeling and data assimilation framework known as the Land Information System (LIS), it also supports hydrological data products from other, non-LIS environments. In addition, the analysis of diagnostics from various computational subsystems of LIS including data assimilation, optimization and uncertainty estimation are supported within LVT. Together, LIS and LVT provide a robust end-to-end environment for enabling the concepts of model data fusion for hydrological applications. The evolving capabilities of LVT framework are expected to facilitate rapid model evaluation efforts and aid the definition and refinement of formal evaluation procedures for the land surface modeling community.

Kumar, Sujay V.↗

A simple hydrologically based model of land surface water and energy fluxes for general circulation models

A generalization of the single soil layer variable infiltration capacity (VIC) land surface hydrological model previously implemented in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) general circulation model (GCM) is described. The new model is comprised of a two-layer characterization of the soil column, and uses an aerodynamic representation of the latent and sensible heat fluxes at the land surface. The infiltration algorithm for the upper layer is essentially the same as for the single layer VIC model, while the lower layer drainage formulation is of the form previously implemented in the Max-Planck-Institut GCM. The model partitions the area of interest (e.g., grid cell) into multiple land surface cover types; for each land cover type the fraction of roots in the upper and lower zone is specified. Evapotranspiration consists of three components: canopy evaporation, evaporation from bare soils, and transpiration, which is represented using a canopy and architectural resistance formulation. Once the latent heat flux has been computed, the surface energy balance is iterated to solve for the land surface temperature at each time step. The model was tested using long-term hydrologic and climatological data for Kings Creek, Kansas to estimate and validate the hydrological parameters, and surface flux data from three First International Satellite Land Surface Climatology Project Field Experiment (FIFE) intensive field campaigns in the summer-fall of 1987 to validate the surface energy fluxes.

Liang, XU↗