Wind-Load Analysis of a New Linear Fresnel Receiver Assembly Design
Estimate wind load requirements at operational and survival conditions to facilitate the future optimal engineering design.
Parikh, A.↗
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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Nondestructive shell-stability estimation by a combined-loading technique.
The variation of specimen lateral stiffness with compressive axial loading is studied experimentally, and it is demonstrated that buckling loads can be predicted for monocoque shells from such data. A study of the initial specimen geometry is presented, and an evaluation is made of its effect on the distribution of stiffness at zero axial load. When the lateral test force used to determine the stiffness is considered as a destabilizing load in combination with the axial compression, it is shown that critical values of the force can be estimated by the 'Southwell plot' procedure. These critical forces can be correlated with axial load and extrapolated to yield an accurate estimate of the buckling load.
Craig, J. I.↗
Spillover as a cause of bias in baseline evaluation methods for demand response programs
Prior research has shown load reduction estimates from residential event-driven demand response programs (e.g., Critical Peak Pricing)using X of the highest Y days with a weather adjustment method are the best performing within the class of currently used baseline methods. However, they are still biased relative to estimates produced from randomized control trials (RCTs), the unbiased “gold standard” evaluation method. In this paper we identify underlying factors that cause some of the bias found in one commonly used baseline method. Rather than simply quantifying bias, our research provides a deeper understanding of what causes the bias and thus can be used to develop more accurate methods that are not subject to these underlying factors. Previous studies have compared various baseline methods relative to each other; however, because all baseline methods are biased, it is impossible to determine the true bias that exists in them. We have access to a unique RCT dataset: the Sacramento Municipal Utility District's study of critical peak pricing. Our analysis of 23 event days over two summers allows us to identify the true bias on load reduction estimates by using the RCT estimates as the unbiased gold standard against which we compare the estimates from the baseline methods. We found that spillover of energy reductions, from hours targeted by a program onto other hours, is one underlying factor that is a major cause of bias in baseline methods. We discuss alternative baseline methods that may not be subject to this same bias.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Sequential Bayesian parameter estimation of stochastic dynamic load models
Not Available
Maldonado, Daniel Adrian (ORCID:0000000165119051)↗
Demand Estimation of Net Metered Loads for Microgrid Restoration
Microgrids can experience frequency instability while operating in the islanded mode due to a significant demand generation imbalance. Presence of net metered (NM) loads can further complicate accurate demand forecasting. For these loads only the net demand, difference of load demand and generation, is available. This paper presents the various stages observed during microgrid restoration with high penetration of NM loads. Disaggregation of demand and generation from the net metered time series is shown to be essential for accurate demand forecasting in each of these stages. A disaggregation approach is proposed using correlation in the net metered data. Time series analysis is then used to forecast the demand in each stage of the microgrid restoration process. A case study using demand and generation time series data from residential loads, shows that the proposed approach is significantly more accurate for demand forecasting than using only the net-metered time series.
demand forecasting, Microgrid, power system restor↗
A Data-Driven Method for Adaptive Reserve Requirement Estimation via Probabilistic Net Load Forecasting
The University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, CO, 80309, USA With the increasing penetration of renewable energy, power systems are subject to more uncertainty. This makes power system reserve scheduling more challenging. Most of the current reserve requirement determination methods calculate reserve requirements based on historical data, which does not consider the real-time or future system uncertainty. In this paper, a data-driven method is developed to determine the non-spinning reserve requirement (NSRR) in the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system. The method follows the procedure of the current ERCOT method while adaptively determining the NSRR based on probabilistic net load forecasts. Case studies with two years of ERCOT data show that the developed method significantly reduces the NSRR by introducing an adaptive temporal resolution and update rate. Sensitivity analysis with different forecasting and percentile thresholds indicates the flexibility of the developed method.
non-spinning reserve↗
Evaluation Of Glass Density to Support the Estimation of Fissile Mass Loadings in Sludge Batch 10 Glasses
Per a directive from the Department of Energy Savannah River Operations Office (DOE-SR) in 2008, the fissile mass loading concentration must remain below 897 g/m 3 in each high-level waste (HLW) glass canister produced by the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). To support Sludge Batch 5 (SB5) processing, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) developed a technical basis that facilitates the evaluation of fissile mass loading of the glass product. The calculation is based on the iron (Fe) concentration in the glass as determined by measurements from the Slurry Mix Evaporator acceptability analysis as well as the glass density. In April 2022, a subsequent DOE-SR directive increased the fissile mass loading limit to 2500 g/m 3 beginning with Sludge Batch 11. Thus, the 897 g/m 3 limit still applies to Sludge Batch 10 (SB10) processing. For SB5 through initial Sludge Batch 9 (SB9) processing prior to coupled operation with the Salt Waste Processing Facility (SWPF), SRNL provided DWPF a bounding glass density value that was based on a statistical evaluation of density measurements. To eliminate the need for experimental work, a composition-based density model for HLW glasses was developed at SRNL in 2019. The objective of this report is to present the bounding glass density determined with the composition-based density model for SB10 sludge-only (SO) and coupled processing.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Evaluation of Glass Density to Support the Estimation of Fissile Mass Loadings in Sludge Batch 10 Glasses
Per a directive from the Department of Energy Savannah River Operations Office (DOE-SR) in 2008, the fissile mass loading concentration must remain below 897 g/m 3 in each high-level waste (HLW) glass canister produced by the Defense Waste Processing Facility (DWPF). To support Sludge Batch 5 (SB5) processing, the Savannah River National Laboratory (SRNL) developed a technical basis that facilitates the evaluation of fissile mass loading of the glass product. The calculation is based on the iron (Fe) concentration in the glass as determined by measurements from the Slurry Mix Evaporator acceptability analysis as well as the glass density. In April 2022, a subsequent DOE-SR directive increased the fissile mass loading limit to 2500 g/m 3 beginning with Sludge Batch 11. Thus, the 897 g/m 3 limit still applies to Sludge Batch 10 (SB10) processing.
11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
Estimation of Hydrodynamic Impact Loads and Pressure Distributions on Bodies Approximating Elliptical Cylinders with Special Reference to Water Landings of Helicopters
An approximate method for computing water loads and pressure distributions on lightly loaded elliptical cylinders during oblique water impacts is presented. The method is of special interest for the case of emergency water landings of helicopters. This method makes use of theory developed and checked for landing impacts of seaplanes having bottom cross sections of V and scalloped contours. An illustrative example is given to show typical results obtained from the use of the proposed method of computation. The accuracy of the approximate method was evaluated through comparison with limited experimental data for two-dimensional drops of a rigid circular cylinder at a trim of 0 degrees and a flight -path angle of 90 degrees. The applicability of the proposed formulas to the design of rigid hulls is indicated by the rough agreement obtained between the computed and experimental results. A detailed computational procedure is included as an appendix.
Schnitzer, Emanuel↗
A comparison with flight data of vertical-tail loads in various maneuvers estimated from sideslip angles and rudder deflections
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Turner, Howard L↗
Estimation of water landing loads on hydro-ski-equipped aircraft
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Schnitzer, Emanuel↗
Simplified procedures for estimating flap-control loads at supersonic speeds
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Czarnecki, K R↗
Validation of Lower-Bound Estimates for Compression-Loaded Cylindrical Shells
The traditional approach used in the design of stability critical thin-walled circular cylin- ders, is to reduce unconservative buckling load predictions with an empirical knockdown factor. An alternative analysis-based approach to determine a lower bound buckling load for cylinders under axial compression is to use a lateral perturbation load to create an initial imperfection and determine the buckling load while that load is applied. This paper describes a preliminary e ort to develop a test capability to verify this approach. Results from tests of three aluminum alloy cylinders are described and compared to nite element predictions.
Haynie, Waddy T.↗
Purpose, Design, and Analysis of the NSTX-U Centerstack Casing Lateral Support Shims
The National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) centerstack casing surrounds the central magnet core of NSTXU. It provides the inner vacuum boundary of the plasma chamber and supports the radially inboard plasma facing components lining the plasma chamber. The casing is supported like a cantilever, fixed at the lower flange by a connection to the TF Bundle through a G-10 ring. It is flexibly supported at the top by bellows, and insulated shims intended to react the largest part of the inventory of the disruption loads at the upper support, thereby protecting the upper and lower connections from excessive loads. A large part of the qualification of the casing and tiles requires addressing and quantifying disruption loads. These have been estimated based on extensions of the behavior of NSTX during its run period roughly 15 years ago. Structural qualification of the Upgrade used these estimates of the loading as input to calculations to demonstrate adequacy for a “most probable” disruption. The estimates are included in a requirements document to guide conservative design of all components loaded by disruptions. However, the changes made for the upgrade made the extrapolation of disruption behavior uncertain. Disruptions include axisymmetric loading from axisymmetric currents induced in the vessel shells. In addition, more complex currents called Halo currents are a result of plasma poloidal currents impinging on the casing. The halo currents add another layer of uncertain behavior and net lateral loading to the casing. As a result, NSTX-U is equipped with a number of instruments intended to assess the nature and severity of disruptions. The casing shims are required for lateral support of the casing, but these have also been converted to load cells to provide another measure of the magnitude of symmetric and asymmetric loading. Some of the logic in the development of the requirements document are presented. Electromagnetic analysis of axisymmetric and halo loading is described. Global simulations of the casing transient dynamic response, and local analysis and testing of the shim/load cell are included. The shim load cells and other instrumentation will be an important guide in planning NSTX-U experiments beyond its next run period expected in late 2026 or early 2027.
70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
Coordination of thermostatically controlled loads with unknown parameters
Apparatus and methods are disclosed for coordination of a population of Thermostatically Controlled Loads (TCLs) with unknown parameters to achieve group objectives including bidding and market clearing strategies designed to motivate self-interested users to realize efficient energy allocation subject to a peak power constraint. In one examples of the disclosed technology, a method of operating a load includes estimating a set of values for unmeasured parameters of the load's thermal environment based on output measurements of the thermal environment, determining an energy response based on the estimated set of values for the unmeasured parameters, and transmitting a bid for power for a finite time period based on the determined energy response to the coordinator. A clearing price is received from the coordinator responsive to the transmitted bid and power is sent to the load responsive to the received clearing price.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
The Accuracy of Parameter Estimation in System Identification of Noisy Aircraft Load Measurement
This thesis focuses on the subject of the accuracy of parameter estimation and system identification techniques. Motivated by a complicated load measurement from NASA Dryden Flight Research Center, advanced system identification techniques are needed. The objective of this problem is to accurately predict the load experienced by the aircraft wing structure during flight determined from a set of calibrated load and gage response relationship. We can then model the problem as a black box input-output system identification from which the system parameter has to be estimated. Traditional LS (Least Square) techniques and the issues of noisy data and model accuracy are addressed. A statistical bound reflecting the change in residual is derived in order to understand the effects of the perturbations on the data. Due to the intrinsic nature of the LS problem, LS solution faces the dilemma of the trade off between model accuracy and noise sensitivity. A method of conflicting performance indices is presented, thus allowing us to improve the noise sensitivity while at the same time configuring the degredation of the model accuracy. SVD techniques for data reduction are studied and the equivalence of the Correspondence Analysis (CA) and Total Least Squares Criteria are proved. We also looked at nonlinear LS problems with NASA F-111 data set as an example. Conventional methods are neither easily applicable nor suitable for the specific load problem since the exact model of the system is unknown. Neural Network (NN) does not require prior information on the model of the system. This robustness motivated us to apply the NN techniques on our load problem. Simulation results for the NN methods used in both the single load and the 'warning signal' problems are both useful and encouraging. The performance of the NN (for single load estimate) is better than the LS approach, whereas no conventional approach was tried for the 'warning signals' problems. The NN design methodology is also presented. The use of SVD, CA and Collinearity Index methods are used to reduce the number of neurons in a layer.
Kong, Jeffrey↗
PMSM Parameter Estimation using a Linear Unknown Input Interval Observer
In this paper, the problem of permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM) speed and unknown load torque estimation is addressed. For this purpose, a interval unknown input observer (UIO) for linear time-invariant (LTI) systems is used. First, the PMSM model is linearized in order to make it in a suitable form for the linear interval UIO. Then, the interval UIO is applied to allow the joint estimation of the motor speed and the unknown load torque disturbance. The main advantages of this approach is that it not only allows the joint state and unknown input estimation, but also to take the different uncertainty sources into account. Indeed, taking model and measurement uncertainty into account is crucial. Assuming that the measurement noise and disturbances are bounded, lower and upper bounds are first computed for the unmeasured state (motor speed) and then for the unknown input (load torque). The proposed approach and its limitations are demonstrated with the nonlinear PMSM model derived from its equivalent electrical circuit.
Elinirina I Robinson↗