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At least 163 records · Page 9

How Does Water Delivery System Design Impact the Microbial Load of Salad Crops?

In a microgravity setting, such as the environment aboard the International Space Station (ISS), an ideal plant water delivery system is one that can grow edible crops with minimal resource consumption and minimal risk to crew members. There are also concerns associated with the ability to control fluid escape and biofilm formation resulting in potential dangers to systems, crops, or crewmembers. To identify an appropriate system, candidate systems were assembled and operated under simulated ISS environmental conditions (T,CO2,and RH) with red romaine lettuce (Lactuca sativa cultivar 'Outredgeous') as a model crop. Fluid reservoirs and randomly selected planting sites were sampled every seven days until maturity at which point edible plant biomass and root samples were also taken. Heterotrophic bacteria and fungi growth patterns throughout each planting cycle were determined by plate counts on appropriate agar media. The candidate systems were compared to a classic hydroponics system as a control and harvested crops were compared to controls as well as Veggie-grown and market produce. Plants harvested from candidate systems yielded lower average heterotrophic bacteria and fungi per gram of plant mass levels when compared to market and Veggie samples as well as those from the control system. Additional studies to evaluate the system sanitation regimen as well as testing additional crops should be considered to aid in the selection of an ideal system.

Curry, Aaron B.↗

Analysis of Ares Crew Launch Vehicle Transonic Alternating Flow Phenomenon

A transonic wind tunnel test of the Ares I-X Rigid Buffet Model (RBM) identified a Mach number regime where unusually large buffet loads are present. A subsequent investigation identified the cause of these loads to be an alternating flow phenomenon at the Crew Module-Service Module junction. The conical design of the Ares I-X Crew Module and the cylindrical design of the Service Module exposes the vehicle to unsteady pressure loads due to the sudden transition between a subsonic separated and a supersonic attached flow about the cone-cylinder junction as the local flow randomly fluctuates back and forth between the two flow states. These fluctuations produce a square-wave like pattern in the pressure time histories resulting in large amplitude, impulsive buffet loads. Subsequent testing of the Ares I RBM found much lower buffet loads since the evolved Ares I design includes an ogive fairing that covers the Crew Module-Service Module junction, thereby making the vehicle less susceptible to the onset of alternating flow. An analysis of the alternating flow separation and attachment phenomenon indicates that the phenomenon is most severe at low angles of attack and exacerbated by the presence of vehicle protuberances. A launch vehicle may experience either a single or, at most, a few impulsive loads since it is constantly accelerating during ascent rather than dwelling at constant flow conditions in a wind tunnel. A comparison of a windtunnel- test-data-derived impulsive load to flight-test-data-derived load indicates a significant over-prediction in the magnitude and duration of the buffet load. I. Introduction One

Sekula, Martin K.↗

Effect of field-aligned potential drop in a global magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling model

Effects of field-aligned potential drops on the magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling in a steady state are studied on a global ionospheric scale. It is shown that a constant-current generator can support a larger field-aligned potential drop than a constant voltage generator under similar conditions. The magnetospheric convection pattern is distorted more in the constant current generator case than in the constant voltage generator case. The main difference between a constant current generator and a constant voltage generator is found to lie in their ability to adjust the vorticity of the magnetospheric convection. The results show that a constant current generator allows the vorticity of the magnetospheric convection to adjust so that the field-aligned current can be kept constant under the loading influence of the field-aligned potential. On the other hand, a constant voltage generator by definition cannot adjust the vorticity of the magnetospheric convection to maintain the field-aligned current under the loading influence of the field-aligned potential.

Kan, J. R.↗

CDTI: Crew Function Assessment

Man machine interaction often requires the operator to perform a sterotyped scan of instruments to monitor and/or control a system. Situations in which this type of behavior exists, such as instrument flight, scan pattern has been shown to be altered by imposition of simultaneous verbal tasks. The relationship between pilot visual scan of instruments and mental workload was described. A verbal loading task of varying difficulty caused pilots to stare at the primary instrument as the difficulty increased and to shed looks at instruments of less importance. The verbal loading task affected rank ordering of scanning sequences. The behavior of pilots with widely varying skill levels suggested that these effects occur most strongly at lower skill levels and are less apparent at high skill levels. Graphical interpretation of the hypothetical relationship between skill, workload, and performance is introduced and modeling results are presented to support this interpretation.

Tole, J. R.↗

Plasticity of Neurovestibular Systems Following Micro- and Hyper-Gravity Exposure and Readaptation to Earth's 1G

The gravity-sensing organs sense the sum of inertial force due to head translation and head orientation relative to gravity. Normally gravity is constant, and yet the neural sensors show remarkable plasticity. When the force of gravity changes, such as in spaceflight or during centrifugation, the neurovestibular system responds by regulating its neural output, and this response is similar for the vertebrate utricular nerve afferents and for the statocyst hair cell in invertebrates. First, we examine the response of utricular afferents in toadfish following exposure to G on two orbital missions (STS-90 and 95). Within the first day after landing, magnitude of neural response to an applied acceleration was significantly elevated, and re-adaptation back to control values occurred within approximately 30 hours. Time course of return to normal approximately parallels the decrease in vestibular disorientation in astronauts following return. Next, we use well-controlled hyper-G experiments in the vertebrate model to address: If G leads to adaptation and subsequent re-adaptation neural processes, does the transfer from 1G to hyper-G impart the opposite effects and do the effects accompanying transfer from the hyper-G back to the 1G conditions resemble as an analog the transfer from 1G to the microG Results show a biphasic pattern in reaction to 3G exposures: an initial sensitivity up-regulation (3- and 4-day) followed by a significant decrease after longer exposure. Return to control values is on the order of 4-8 days. Utricular sensitivity is strongly regulated up or down by gravity load and the duration of exposure. Interestingly, we found no correlation of response and hair cell synaptic body counts despite the large gain difference between 4- and 16-Day subjects. Lastly, we examine responses of statocyst receptors in land snail following exposure to G on two unmanned Russian Orbital missions (Foton M-2 and -3). Here, we have the ability to measure the output directly from the hair cells. Similar to afferents in vertebrates the hair cells increased their response sensitivity to vestibular stimulation. Two major pieces of information are needed: the precise vertebrate hair cell response to altered gravity and the impact of longer duration exposures on sensory plasticity.

Boyle, Richard D.↗

Evaluation of a GCM cirrus parameterization using satellite observations

This study applies a simple yet effective methodology to validate a general circulation model parameterization of cirrus ice water path. The methodology combines large-scale dynamic and thermodynamic fields from operational analyses with prescribed occurrence of cirrus clouds from satellite observations to simulate a global distribution of ice water path. The predicted cloud properties are then compared with the corresponding satellite measurements of visible optical depth and infrared cloud emissivity to evaluate the reliability of the parameterization. This methodology enables the validation to focus strictly on the water loading side of the parameterization by eliminating uncertainties involved in predicting the occurrence of cirrus internally within the parameterization. Overall the parameterization performs remarkably well in capturing the observed spatial patterns of cirrus optical properties. Spatial correlations between the observed and the predicted optical depths are typically greater than 0.7 for the tropics and northern hemisphere midlatitudes. The good spatial agreement largely stems from the strong dependence of the ice water path upon the temperature of the environment in which the clouds form. Poorer correlations (r approximately 0.3) are noted over the southern hemisphere midlatitudes, suggesting that additional processes not accounted for by the parameterization may be important there. Quantitative evaluation of the parameterization is hindered by the present uncertainty in the size distribution of cirrus ice particles. Consequently, it is difficult to determine if discrepancies between the observed and the predicted optical properties are attributable to errors in the parameterized ice water path or to geographic variations in effective radii.

Soden, B. J.↗

Patterns of deformation and volcanic flows associated with lithospheric loading by large volcanoes on Venus

Magellan radar imaging and topography data are now available for a number of volcanoes on Venus greater than 100 km in radius. These data can be examined to reveal evidence of the flexural response of the lithosphere to the volcanic load. On Venus, erosion and sediment deposition are negligible, so tectonic evidence of deformation around large volcanoes should be evident except where buried by very young flows. Radar images reveal that most tectonic features and flow units on the flanks of these volcanoes have predominantly radial orientations. However, both Tepev Mons in Bell Regio and Sapas Mons in Atla Regio exhibit circumferential graben on their flanks. In addition, images reveal several flow units with an annular character around the north and west flanks of Tepev Mons. This pattern most likely results from ponding of flows in an annular flexural moat. Maat Mons in Atla Regio and Sif Mons in Eistla Regio are examples of volcanoes that lack circumferential graben and annular flows; discernible flow units and fractures on these constructs appear to be predominantly radial. Altimetry data can also provide evidence of flexural response. Tepev Mons is partially encircled by depressions that may be sections of a flexural moat that has not been completely filled. The locations of these depressions generally coincide with the annular flows described above. There is weaker evidence for such depressions around Maat Mons as well. The lack of circumferential tectonic features around most volcanoes on Venus might be explained by gradual moat filling and coverage by radial flows. The depressions around Tepev (and possible Maat) may indicate that this process is currently continuing. We use analytic models of plate flexure in an axisymmetric geometry to constrain the elastic plate thickness supporting Tepev Mons. If we consider the outer radius of the ponded flows to be the edge of a moat, we find that models with elastic plate thickness of 10-20 km fit best. Finite element models of a volcanic load detached from the underlying lithosphere predict overthrusting and radial normal faulting at the volcano's edge. Such a mechanism for the formation of radial rift zones on Venus volcanoes would make such features analogous to structures on the flanks of volcanoes on Earth.

Mcgovern, Patrick J.↗

Constraining the Venus Interior Structure With Future VERITAS Measurements of the Gravitational Atmospheric Loading

The complex dynamics of the Venus atmosphere produces a periodic mass redistribution pattern that creates a time-variable modulation of the gravity field of Venus. This gravity signal depends on the net transport of mass across the globe and on the response of the solid body to the normal loading of its crust imparted by the atmosphere. In this work, we explore the possibility of measuring this phenomenon with VERITAS, a NASA Discovery-class mission. By simulating the gravity science experiment, we explore the possibility of measuring the response of Venus to the atmospheric loading, parametrized by the loading Love numbers ( 𝑘 𝑙 ' ), and assess the dependence of these parameters on fundamental interior structure properties. Using the most recent models of Venus' interior, we compute the Venus Love numbers in a compressible viscoelastic setting and compare them with the predicted uncertainty of the VERITAS measurements. We show that VERITAS will measure 𝑘 2 ' at the 4% level and that this measurement could possibly help to distinguish between different equally plausible interior structure models, especially allowing us to distinguish different rheological laws. We also show that a measurement campaign such as the VERITAS gravity science investigation has the potential of measuring 𝑘 2 ' not only at the loading forcing frequency, but also at the tidal frequency, ultimately providing a way to probe the response of the planet at different forcing periods.

Atmospheric tides↗

Computational Simulation of Damage Propagation in Three-Dimensional Woven Composites

Three dimensional (3D) woven composites have demonstrated multi-directional properties and improved transverse strength, impact resistance, and shear characteristics. The objective of this research is to develop a new model for predicting the elastic constants, hygrothermal effects, thermomechanical response, and stress limits of 3D woven composites; and to develop a computational tool to facilitate the evaluation of 3D woven composite structures with regard to damage tolerance and durability. Fiber orientations of weave and braid patterns are defined with reference to composite structural coordinates. Orthotropic ply properties and stress limits computed via micromechanics are transformed to composite structural coordinates and integrated to obtain the 3D properties. The various stages of degradation, from damage initiation to collapse of structures, in the 3D woven structures are simulated for the first time. Three dimensional woven composite specimens with various woven patterns under different loading conditions, such as tension, compression, bending, and shear are simulated in the validation process of this research. Damage initiation, growth, accumulation, and propagation to fracture are included in these simulations.

Huang, Dade↗

A Particle-in-Cell Simulation for the Traveling Wave Direct Energy Converter (TWDEC) for Fusion Propulsion

A Particle-in-cell simulation model has been developed to study the physics of the Traveling Wave Direct Energy Converter (TWDEC) applied to the conversion of charged fusion products into electricity. In this model the availability of a beam of collimated fusion products is assumed; the simulation is focused on the conversion of the beam kinetic energy into alternating current (AC) electric power. The model is electrostatic, as the electro-dynamics of the relatively slow ions can be treated in the quasistatic approximation. A two-dimensional, axisymmetric (radial-axial coordinates) geometry is considered. Ion beam particles are injected on one end and travel along the axis through ring-shaped electrodes with externally applied time-varying voltages, thus modulating the beam by forming a sinusoidal pattern in the beam density. Further downstream, the modulated beam passes through another set of ring electrodes, now electrically oating. The modulated beam induces a time alternating potential di erence between adjacent electrodes. Power can be drawn from the electrodes by connecting a resistive load. As energy is dissipated in the load, a corresponding drop in beam energy is measured. The simulation encapsulates the TWDEC process by reproducing the time-dependent transfer of energy and the particle deceleration due to the electric eld phase time variations.

Chap, Andrew↗

Interactive Soil Dust Aerosol Model in the GISS GCM: Sensitivity of the Soil Dust Cycle to Radiative Properties of Soil Dust Aerosols - Part 1

The sensitivity of the soil dust aerosol cycle to the radiative forcing by soil dust aerosols is studied. Four experiments with the NASA/GISS atmospheric general circulation model, which includes a soil dust aerosol model, are compared, all using a prescribed climatological sea surface temperature as lower boundary condition. In one experiment, dust is included as dynamic tracer only (without interacting with radiation), whereas dust interacts with radiation in the other simulations. Although the single scattering albedo of dust particles is prescribed to be globally uniform in the experiments with radiatively active dust, a different single scattering albedo is used in those experiments to estimate whether regional variations in dust optical properties, corresponding to variations in mineralogical composition among different source regions, are important for the soil dust cycle and the climate state. On a global scale, the radiative forcing by dust generally causes a reduction in the atmospheric dust load corresponding to a decreased dust source flux. That is, there is a negative feedback in the climate system due to the radiative effect of dust. The dust source flux and its changes were analyzed in more detail for the main dust source regions. This analysis shows that the reduction varies both with the season and with the single scattering albedo of the dust particles. By examining the correlation with the surface wind, it was found that the dust emission from the Saharan/Sahelian source region and from the Arabian peninsula, along with the sensitivity of the emission to the single scattering albedo of dust particles, are related to large scale circulation patterns, in particular to the trade winds during Northern Hemisphere winter and to the Indian monsoon circulation during summer. In the other regions, such relations to the large scale circulation were not found. There, the dependence of dust deflation to radiative forcing by dust particles is probably dominated by physical processes with short time scales. The experiments show that dust radiative forcing can lead to significant changes both in the soil dust cycle and in the climate state. To estimate dust concentration and radiative forcing by dust more accurately, dust size distributions and dust single scattering albedo in the model should be a function of the source region, because dust concentration and climate response to dust radiative forcing are sensitive to dust radiative parameters.

Perlwitz, Jan↗

Comparison of GFED3, QFED2 and FEER1 Biomass Burning Emissions Datasets in a Global Model

Biomass burning contributes about 40% of the global loading of carbonaceous aerosols, significantly affecting air quality and the climate system by modulating solar radiation and cloud properties. However, fire emissions are poorly constrained in models on global and regional levels. In this study, we investigate 3 global biomass burning emission datasets in NASA GEOS5, namely: (1) GFEDv3.1 (Global Fire Emissions Database version 3.1); (2) QFEDv2.4 (Quick Fire Emissions Dataset version 2.4); (3) FEERv1 (Fire Energetics and Emissions Research version 1.0). The simulated aerosol optical depth (AOD), absorption AOD (AAOD), angstrom exponent and surface concentrations of aerosol plumes dominated by fire emissions are evaluated and compared to MODIS, OMI, AERONET, and IMPROVE data over different regions. In general, the spatial patterns of biomass burning emissions from these inventories are similar, although the strength of the emissions can be noticeably different. The emissions estimates from QFED are generally larger than those of FEER, which are in turn larger than those of GFED. AOD simulated with all these 3 databases are lower than the corresponding observations in Southern Africa and South America, two of the major biomass burning regions in the world.

biomass burning↗

Fatigue and Damage Tolerance Analysis of a Hybrid Composite Tapered Flexbeam

The behavior of nonlinear tapered composite flexbeams under combined axial tension and cyclic bending loading was studied using coupon test specimens and finite element (FE) analyses. The flexbeams used a hybrid material system of graphite/epoxy and glass/epoxy and had internal dropped plies, dropped in an overlapping stepwise pattern. Two material configurations, differing only in the use of glass or graphite plies in the continuous plies near the midplane, were studied. Test specimens were cut from a full-size helicopter tail-rotor flexbeam and were tested in a hydraulic load frame under combined constant axialtension load and transverse cyclic bending loads. The first determination damage observed in the specimens occurred at the area around the tip of the outermost ply-drop group in the tapered region of the flexbeam, near the thick end. Delaminations grew slowly and stably, toward the thick end of the flexbeam, at the interfaces above and below the dropped-ply region. A 2D finite element model of the flexbeam was developed. The model was analyzed using a geometrically non-linear analysis with both the ANSYS and ABAQUS FE codes. The global responses of each analysis agreed well with the test results. The ANSYS model was used to calculate strain energy release rates (G) for delaminations initiating at two different ply-ending locations. The results showed that delaminations were more inclined to grow at the locations where they were observed in the test specimens. Both ANSYS and ABAQUS were used to calculate G values associated with delamination initiating at the observed location but growing in different interfaces, either above or below the ply-ending group toward the thick end, or toward the thin end from the tip of the resin pocket. The different analysis codes generated the same trends and comparable peak values, within 5-11 % for each delamination path. Both codes showed that delamination toward the thick region was largely mode II, and toward the thin region was predominantly mode I. The calculated peak G-values from either analysis predict delamination is most likely to occur along the same interface where it was observed in the test specimens. Calculated peak G values were used with material characterization data to calculate a curve relating the fatigue life of the specimens, N, to the applied transverse load, V, for a given constant axial load.

Murri, Gretchen B.↗

Analysis of a Transonic Alternating Flow Phenomenon Observed During Ares Crew Launch Vehicle Wind Tunnel Tests

A transonic wind tunnel test of the Ares I-X Rigid Buffet Model (RBM) identified a Mach number regime where unusually large buffet loads are present. A subsequent investigation identified the cause of these loads to be an alternating flow phenomenon at the Crew Module-Service Module junction. The conical design of the Ares I-X Crew Module and the cylindrical design of the Service Module exposes the vehicle to unsteady pressure loads due to the sudden transition from separated to attached flow about the cone-cylinder junction with increasing Mach number. For locally transonic conditions at this junction, the flow randomly fluctuates back and forth between a subsonic separated flow and a supersonic attached flow. These fluctuations produce a square-wave like pattern in the pressure time histories which, upon integration result in large amplitude, impulsive buffet loads. Subsequent testing of the Ares I RBM found much lower buffet loads since the evolved Ares I design includes an ogive fairing that covers the Crew Module-Service Module junction, thereby making the vehicle less susceptible to the onset of alternating flow. An analysis of the alternating flow separation and attachment phenomenon indicates that the phenomenon is most severe at low angles of attack and exacerbated by the presence of vehicle protuberances. A launch vehicle may experience either a single or, at most, a few impulsive loads since it is constantly accelerating during ascent rather than dwelling at constant flow conditions in a wind tunnel. A comparison of a wind-tunnel-test-data-derived impulsive load to flight-test-data-derived load indicates a significant over-prediction in the magnitude and duration of the buffet load

Sekula, Martin K.↗

Impacts of Aerosol Direct Effects on the South Asian Climate: Assessment of Radiative Feedback Processes Using Model Simulations and Satellite/Surface Measurements

Current assessment of aerosol radiative effect is hindered by our incomplete knowledge of aerosol optical properties, especially absorption, and our current inability to quantify physical and microphysical processes. In this research, we investigate direct aerosol radiative effect over heavy aerosol loading areas (e.g., Indo-Gangetic Plains, South/East Asia) and its feedbacks on the South Asian climate during the pre-monsoon season (March-June) using the Purdue Regional Climate Model (PRCM) with prescribed aerosol data derived by the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS-5). Our modeling domain covers South and East Asia (60-140E and 0-50N) with spatial resolutions of 45 km in horizontal and 28 layers in vertical. The model is integrated from 15 February to 30 June 2008 continuously without nudging (i.e., only forced by initial/boundary conditions). Two numerical experiments are conducted with and without the aerosol-radiation effects. Both simulations are successful in reproducing the synoptic patterns on seasonal-to-interannual time scales and capturing a pre-monsoon feature of the northward rainfall propagation over Indian region in early June which shown in Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) observation. Preliminary result suggests aerosol-radiation interactions mainly alter surface-atmosphere energetics and further result in an adjustment of the vertical temperature distribution in lower atmosphere (below 700 hPa). The modifications of temperature and associated rainfall and circulation feedbacks on the regional climate will be discussed in the presentation.

Wang, Sheng-Hsiang↗

Large-Scale Covariability Between Aerosol and Precipitation Over the 7-SEAS Region: Observations and Simulations

One of the seven scientific areas of interests of the 7-SEAS field campaign is to evaluate the impact of aerosol on cloud and precipitation (http://7-seas.gsfc.nasa.gov). However, large-scale covariability between aerosol, cloud and precipitation is complicated not only by ambient environment and a variety of aerosol effects, but also by effects from rain washout and climate factors. This study characterizes large-scale aerosol-cloud-precipitation covariability through synergy of long-term multi ]sensor satellite observations with model simulations over the 7-SEAS region [10S-30N, 95E-130E]. Results show that climate factors such as ENSO significantly modulate aerosol and precipitation over the region simultaneously. After removal of climate factor effects, aerosol and precipitation are significantly anti-correlated over the southern part of the region, where high aerosols loading is associated with overall reduced total precipitation with intensified rain rates and decreased rain frequency, decreased tropospheric latent heating, suppressed cloud top height and increased outgoing longwave radiation, enhanced clear-sky shortwave TOA flux but reduced all-sky shortwave TOA flux in deep convective regimes; but such covariability becomes less notable over the northern counterpart of the region where low ]level stratus are found. Using CO as a proxy of biomass burning aerosols to minimize the washout effect, large-scale covariability between CO and precipitation was also investigated and similar large-scale covariability observed. Model simulations with NCAR CAM5 were found to show similar effects to observations in the spatio-temporal patterns. Results from both observations and simulations are valuable for improving our understanding of this region's meteorological system and the roles of aerosol within it. Key words: aerosol; precipitation; large-scale covariability; aerosol effects; washout; climate factors; 7- SEAS; CO; CAM5

Huang, Jingfeng↗

Effects of different activity and inactivity paradigms on myosin heavy chain gene expression in striated muscle

The goal of this mini-review is to summarize findings concerning the role that different models of muscular activity and inactivity play in altering gene expression of the myosin heavy chain (MHC) family of motor proteins in mammalian cardiac and skeletal muscle. This was done in the context of examining parallel findings concerning the role that thyroid hormone (T(3), 3,5,3'-triiodothyronine) plays in MHC expression. Findings show that both cardiac and skeletal muscles of experimental animals are initially undifferentiated at birth and then undergo a marked level of growth and differentiation in attaining the adult MHC phenotype in a T(3)/activity level-dependent fashion. Cardiac MHC expression in small mammals is highly sensitive to thyroid deficiency, diabetes, energy deprivation, and hypertension; each of these interventions induces upregulation of the beta-MHC isoform, which functions to economize circulatory function in the face of altered energy demand. In skeletal muscle, hyperthyroidism, as well as interventions that unload or reduce the weight-bearing activity of the muscle, causes slow to fast MHC conversions. Fast to slow conversions, however, are seen under hypothyroidism or when the muscles either become chronically overloaded or subjected to intermittent loading as occurs during resistance training and endurance exercise. The regulation of MHC gene expression by T(3) or mechanical stimuli appears to be strongly regulated by transcriptional events, based on recent findings on transgenic models and animals transfected with promoter-reporter constructs. However, the mechanisms by which T(3) and mechanical stimuli exert their control on transcriptional processes appear to be different. Additional findings show that individual skeletal muscle fibers have the genetic machinery to express simultaneously all of the adult MHCs, e.g., slow type I and fast IIa, IIx, and IIb, in unique combinations under certain experimental conditions. This degree of heterogeneity among the individual fibers would ensure a large functional diversity in performing complex movement patterns. Future studies must now focus on 1) the signaling pathways and the underlying mechanisms governing the transcriptional/translational machinery that control this marked degree of plasticity and 2) the morphological organization and functional implications of the muscle fiber's capacity to express such a diversity of motor proteins.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗