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At least 163 records · Page 9

Sensitivity of Mesoscale Modeling of Smoke Direct Radiative Effect to the Emission Inventory: a Case Study in Northern Sub-Saharan African Region

An ensemble approach is used to examine the sensitivity of smoke loading and smoke direct radiative effect in the atmosphere to uncertainties in smoke emission estimates. Seven different fire emission inventories are applied independently to WRF-Chem model (v3.5) with the same model configuration (excluding dust and other emission sources) over the northern sub-Saharan African (NSSA) biomass-burning region. Results for November and February 2010 are analyzed, respectively representing the start and end of the biomass burning season in the study region. For February 2010, estimates of total smoke emission vary by a factor of 12, but only differences by factors of 7 or less are found in the simulated regional (15degW-42degE, 13degS-17degN) and monthly averages of column PM(sub 2.5) loading, surface PM(sub 2.5) concentration, aerosol optical depth (AOD), smoke radiative forcing at the top-of-atmosphere and at the surface, and air temperature at 2 m and at 700 hPa. The smaller differences in these simulated variables may reflect the atmospheric diffusion and deposition effects to dampen the large difference in smoke emissions that are highly concentrated in areas much smaller than the regional domain of the study. Indeed, at the local scale, large differences (up to a factor of 33) persist in simulated smoke-related variables and radiative effects including semi-direct effect. Similar results are also found for November 2010, despite differences in meteorology and fire activity. Hence, biomass burning emission uncertainties have a large influence on the reliability of model simulations of atmospheric aerosol loading, transport, and radiative impacts, and this influence is largest at local and hourly-to-daily scales. Accurate quantification of smoke effects on regional climate and air quality requires further reduction of emission uncertainties, particularly for regions of high fire concentrations such as NSSA.

Sahel and sub-Saharan African region↗

Improved Soil Moisture Estimation and Detection of Irrigation Signal By Incorporating SMAP Soil Moisture Into the Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS)

Land surface models have facilitated the estimation of soil moisture over a range of spatiotemporal scales. However, limitations in model parameterization and under-representation of anthropogenic processes restrict their ability to estimate local-scale soil moisture variability, especially over irrigated areas. Assimilation of satellite-based soil moisture retrievals into land surface models can be a viable approach to overcome these constraints, specially over highly irrigated countries such as India, where such applications are rare. Additionally, large-scale validation of modeled soil moisture has been limited over India till now due to lack of a representative station network. By assimilating Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP)-based estimates into the state-of-the-art Indian Land Data Assimilation System (ILDAS) and combining with a new soil moisture station network of more than 200 stations, this study demonstrates improved soil moisture estimations and capture of irrigation signals over the region. The Noah-MP land surface model is forced by multiple local and global meteorological datasets and Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) is used for assimilation of soil moisture. Comparison of open-loop and data assimilated soil moisture against station soil moisture data shows relative spatial mean improvement of 0.0178 in correlation and 0.0029 m3/m3 in RMSE. Further statistical comparison with in-situ data has also shown better results over most of the stations, as evident from improved correlations and reduced unbiased RMSE after assimilation. Finally, the climatology of soil moisture over the different irrigation fractions reveals that data assimilated outputs over irrigated grid cells tend to have higher soil moisture during dry winter season, demonstrating the ability to capture irrigation signals. These findings quantify the value of data assimilation in improving soil moisture estimates and the ability to capture unmodeled processes such as irrigation, which lays the science groundwork for upcoming space missions such as NASA ISRO Synthetic Aperture Radar (NISAR).

Soil Moisture↗

Permeability scaling relationships of volcanic tuff from core to field scale measurements

A recent chemical explosive test in P-Tunnel at the Nevada National Security Site, Nevada, USA, was conducted to better understand how signals propagate from explosions in the subsurface. A primary signal of interest is the migration of gases that can be used to differentiate chemical from nuclear explosions. Gas migration is highly dependent on the rock permeability which is notoriously difficult to determine experimentally in the field due to a potentially large dependence on the scale over which measurements are made. Here, we present pre-explosion permeability estimates to characterize the geologic units surrounding the recent test. Permeability measurements were made at three scales of increasing size: core samples (≈2 cm), borehole packer system tests (≈1 m), and a pre-shot cavity pressurization test (> 10 m) across ten tuff units. Permeability estimates based on core measurements showed little difference from borehole packer tests. However, permeability in most rock units calibrated from cavity pressurization tests resulted in higher permeability estimates by up to two orders of magnitude. Here, we demonstrate that the scale of the measurement significantly impacts the characterization efforts of hydraulic properties in volcanic tuff, and that local-scale measurements (< 10 m scale) do not incorporate enough heterogeneity to accurately predict field-scale flow and mass transport.

Environmental sciences↗

Recognizing Sulfate and Phosphate Complexes Adsorbed onto Nanophase Weathering Products on Mars

Nanophase weathering products (i.e., secondary phases that lack long-range atomic order) have been recognized on the martian surface via orbital observations and in-situ measurements from landed missions. Allophane, a poorly crystalline, hydrated aluminosilicate, has been identified at the regional scale in models of thermal-infrared (TIR) data from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) and at the local scale from visible/near-IR (VNIR) data from the Compact Reconnaissance Impact Spectrometer for Mars (CRISM) instrument and phase calculations of Alpha Particle X-ray Spectrometer (APXS) data of rocks encountered by the Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) Spirit and Opportunity. Nanophase iron oxides (npOx) have been recognized in rocks and soils measured by the Mössbauer Spectrometer on Spirit and Opportunity. Furthermore, analyses of X-ray diffraction data measured by the CheMin instrument onboard the Mars Science Laboratory rover Curiosity indicate rock and soil samples are comprised of approx. 20-50 wt.% X-ray amorphous materials. Chemical measurements by landed missions indicate the presence of sulfur and phosphorus in martian rocks in soils, and APXS data from Gusev crater demonstrate abundances of up to approx. 5 wt.% P2O5 and approx. 30 wt.% SO3. However, the speciation of phosphorus and sulfur is not always evident. On Earth, phosphate and sulfate anions can be chemisorbed onto the surfaces of nanophase weathering products. This process may also occur on Mars, and calculations of the composition of the amorphous component at Gale crater using CheMin mineral models and APXS data show that amorphous material is enriched in volatiles, including S. Here, we examine the ability to detect chemisorbed sulfate and phosphate complexes by analyzing sulfate- and phosphate-adsorbed nanophase weathering products using instruments similar to those on landed and orbital missions.

Rampe, E. B.↗

An Assessment of the Influence of Uncertainty in Temporally Evolving Streamflow Forecasts on Riverine Inundation Modeling

Continental-scale river forecasting platforms forecast streamflow at reaches that can be used as boundary conditions to drive a local-scale flood inundation model. Uncertainty accumulated during this process stems not only from any part of the forecasting chain but can also be caused by the daily variations in weather forcing that keeps evolving as the event advances. This work aims to examine the influence of the evolving forecast streamflow on predicting the maximum inundation for extreme floods. A diagnostic case study was made on the basis of a hindcast of Hurricane Matthew striking the eastern U.S. in 2016. The U.S. National Water Model was one-way coupled to a hydrodynamic inundation model through a developed automated workflow. Although the river forcing has significantly mismatched hydrographs versus observations, the simulated peak water surface elevations and maximum extents were validated to be comparable with the observations, which indicates that the inundation model may not be sensitive to the inherited uncertainty from the weather forcing. Moreover, the uncertainty of the forecast streamflow time series caused only one order of magnitude fewer variations in inundation prediction; this dampening effect may become clearer for extreme events with large areas inundated. In addition, the forecast total volume of stream discharge appears to be an important metric for assessing the performance of river forcing for inundation mapping, as a linear correlation between the total volume and the accuracy of the predicted peak water surface elevation and maximum extent was found, with the coefficients of determination all above 0.8. Extra best-practice experience of running similar operational tasks demonstrated the tradeoff between the cost and accuracy gain.

flood, national water model, RIFT↗

Detecting Change in Urban Areas at Continental Scales with MODIS Data

Urbanization is one of the most important components of global environmental change, yet most of what we know about urban areas is at the local scale. Remote sensing of urban expansion across large areas provides information on the spatial and temporal patterns of growth that are essential for understanding differences in socioeconomic and political factors that spur different forms of development, as well the social, environmental, and climatic impacts that result. However, mapping urban expansion globally is challenging: urban areas have a small footprint compared to other land cover types, their features are small, they are heterogeneous in both material composition and configuration, and the form and rates of new development are often highly variable across locations. Here we demonstrate a methodology for monitoring urban land expansion at continental to global scales using Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data. The new method focuses on resolving the spectral and temporal ambiguities between urban/non-urban land and stable/changed areas by: (1) spatially constraining the study extent to known locations of urban land; (2) integrating multitemporal data from multiple satellite data sources to classify c. 2010 urban extent; and (3) mapping newly built areas (2000-2010) within the 2010 urban land extent using a multi-temporal composite change detection approach based on MODIS 250 m annual maximum enhanced vegetation index (EVI). We test the method in 15 countries in East-Southeast Asia experiencing different rates and manifestations of urban expansion. A two-tiered accuracy assessment shows that the approach characterizes urban change across a variety of socioeconomic/political and ecological/climatic conditions with good accuracy (70-91% overall accuracy by country, 69-89% by biome). The 250 m EVI data not only improve the classification results, but are capable of distinguishing between change and no-change areas in urban areas. Over 80% of the error in the change detection can be related to definitional issues or error propagation, rather than algorithm error. As such, these methods hold great potential for routine monitoring of urban change, as well as for providing a consistent and up-to-date dataset on urban extent and expansion for a rapidly evolving region.

Urban areas↗

Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER) Field Campaign Report

Convective clouds serve a critical role in the Earth’s energy and water cycles through their transport of heat, moisture, momentum, and chemical species through the troposphere driving the global circulation (e.g., Hartmann et al. 1984, Del Genio et al. 2012, Su et al. 2014). On more local scales, convective clouds impact the atmospheric heating profile through diabatic heating effects, removal of water from the atmospheric column through precipitation, and conditioning of the local environment impacting further development of clouds (e.g., Sullivan and Voigt 2021). These critical roles underscore the importance of realistic representation of convective processes across scales of models from large-eddy simulation (LES), to convection-permitting models (CPM; e.g., Kendon et al. 2020, Marinescu et al. 2021), to numerical weather prediction (NWP) models used for operational weather forecasting, to Earth system models used to predict climate sensitivity (Sanderson et al. 2011, Sherwood et al. 2014, Tomassini et al. 2014, Zhao et al. 2016, Cronin et al. 2017). A key component of improving model representation of convective clouds is better quantification and parameterization of updraft microphysics and dynamics, including their interactions with the surrounding environment and storm organization (Bony et al. 2015, Hagos and Houze 2016, Donner et al. 2016, Morrison et al. 2020). Aerosol is an important environmental factor that could affect convective clouds and precipitation since cloud droplet and ice formation processes are initiated by it. Andrae et al. (2004) hypothesized that aerosols associated with increased biomass burning particles acting as cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) result in smaller and more monodisperse cloud droplets leading to suppression of warm rain formation, ultimately leading to more cloud water being lofted above the freezing level based on observations in the Amazon region. The subsequent increase in latent heat release increases the buoyancy of rising convective parcels invigorating the deep convection. This work was followed by a description of the theoretical basis for this “cold-phase invigoration” by Rosenfeld et al. (2008), who argued that it could have a significant effect for deep convective clouds with warm cloud-bases. Several modeling studies (e.g., Khain et al. 2005, 2009, van den Heever et al. 2006, Fan et al. 2007, 2009, 2012, Lee et al. 2008, Storer et al. 2010, Lebo et al. 2012, Storer and van den Heever 2013, Chen et al. 2020, Dagan et al. 2022) have investigated these aerosol-convection interactions and the environmental factors that influence their relative importance and magnitude. More recently, several studies have indicated that “warm-phase invigoration”, the enhancement of convection through condensational heating, also appears to play a role in enhancing both shallow cumuli (Seiki and Nakajima 2014, Saleeby et al 2015) and deeper tropical convection (Lebo and Seinfeld 2011, Khain et al. 2012, Sheffield et al 2015, Fan et al. 2018, Igel and van den Heever 2021), as well as Houston thunderstorms (Fan et al. 2007, 2020). However, still other studies have provided additional evidence of systematic biases in simulated convective outflow ice size distribution properties, which are consistent with a lack of poorly understood secondary ice production within convective updrafts (e.g., Fridlind et al. 2017). To help address these critical gaps in our understanding of cloud processes, aerosol processes and aerosol-cloud interactions, the Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment was designed building upon efforts by the Aerosol, Cloud, Precipitation and Climate (ACPC) Initiative (http://acpcintiative.org/), a joint effort of the International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme (IGBP) and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) that focused on resolving uncertainties in the interactions between aerosol and clouds towards better understanding the role that these interactions play in the climate system. The TRACER campaign was motivated by recommendations from a number of pilot studies undertaken by ACPC (van den Heever et al. 2017, Fridlind et al. 2019, Hu et al. 2019, Fan et al. 2020, Marinescu et al. 2021, Hernandez-Deckers et al. 2022) that pointed towards the southeastern Texas region as a locale where aerosol-convection interactions could be studied owing to the copious occurrence of isolated convection during the summer months accompanied by diverse and significant sources of aerosols from both anthropogenic and natural sources. The TRACER campaign began on 01 October 2021 and extended through 30 September 2022 with an intensive operational period (IOP) during June-September 2022. Three main sites (Table 1) were managed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Mechanisms and Consequences of Intra-Crystalline Enrichment of Ancient Radiogenic Pb in Detrital Hadean Zircons from the Jack Hills, Western Australia

The recent discovery of Pb* (radiogenic lead) -enriched domains (PEDs) in zircon using high-resolution scanning ion imaging, atom probe tomography and transmission electron microscopy indicates that the U-Pb isotopic system in zircon can be affected not only by Pb* loss but also by intra-crystalline Pb* enrichment. However, the formation mechanism of PEDs and the consequences for in-situ U-Pb dating remain elusive. To further understand these issues, scanning ion imaging and U-Pb dating were carried out on 51 Hadean detrital zircon grains from the Jack Hills, Western Australia. Of these, 8 grains were found to contain micrometer-scale PEDs with elevated Pb-207 and Pb-206 in the ion images. Isotope profiles across these PEDs confirm that they represent unsupported Pb* resulting from intra-grain mobilization and local enrichment of Pb* during ancient overprinting events. The PEDs are rare in most grains, with only 1 – 3 Pb* hotspots present in any ~70 μm × 70 μm imaged area, and are located either in dark-CL, high-U growth zones, or associated with bright-CL, low-Th recrystallized domains, suggesting that they were likely formed by local-scale processes. The PEDs located in dark-CL, high-U growth zones likely resulted from Pb* trapped in local, interconnected pathways produced by radiation damage during thermal overprinting events. Those associated with bright-CL, low-Th domains are interpreted as Pb* concentrated in nanoscale pores formed during fluid-present recrystallization of non-metamict zircon. Our interpretations therefore imply that intra-crystalline enrichment of Pb* in zircon can occur at various scales and through diverse mechanisms. Age calculations based on the ion images demonstrate that incorporation of PEDs in conventional in-situ SIMS spots produces spuriously old ages that are either reversely discordant or concordant, depending on the time of Pb* mobilization and the analytical precision. The implication is that careful investigation of intra-grain distribution of U-Th-Pb isotopes is required in order to better understand the U-Pb isotopic system and to obtain reliable crystallization ages for ancient zircons affected by complex Pb* mobilization and redistribution.

Unsupported radiogenic lead↗

The Dynamics of a Semi-Arid Region in Response to Climate and Water - Use Policy

The objectives of this project were to determine the response of semi-arid ecosystems to the combined forcings of climate variability and anthropogenic stress. Arid and semi-arid systems encompass close to 40% of the worlds land surface. The ecology of these regions are principally limited by water, and as the water resources wax and wane, so should the health and vigor of the ecosystems. Water, however, is a necessary and critical resource for humans living in these same regions. Thus for many and and semi-arid regions the natural systems and human systems are in direct competition for a limited resource. Increasing competition through development of and and semi-arid regions, export of water resources, as well as potential persistent changes in weather patterns are likely to lead to fundamental changes in carrying capacity, resilience, and ecology of these regions. A detailed understanding of these systems respond to forcing on a regional and local scale is required in order to better prepare for and manage future changes in the availability of water. In the Owens Valley CA, decadal changes in rainfall and increased use of groundwater resources by Los Angles (which derives 60-70% of its water from this region) have resulted in a large-scale experiment on the impacts of these changes in semi-arid ecosystems. This project works directly with the Inyo County Water Department (local water authority) and the Los Angles Department of Water and Power (regional demand on water resources) to understand changes, their causes, and impacts. Very detailed records have been kept for a number of selected sites in the valley which provide essential ground truth. These results are then scaled up through remote sensed data to regions scale to assess large scale patterns and link them to the fundamental decisions regarding the water resources of this region. A fundamental goal is to understand how resilient the native ecosystems are to large changes in water resources. Are they are on a spring (remove and return resources, do the systems return to the original state) or a vector (when water returns have the systems fundamentally changed).

Mustard, John F.↗

Stellar feedback-regulated black hole growth: driving factors from nuclear to halo scales

ABSTRACT Several recent simulations of galaxy formation predict two main phases of supermassive black hole (BH) accretion: an early, highly intermittent phase (during which BHs are undermassive relative to local scaling relations), followed by a phase of accelerated growth. We investigate physical factors that drive the transition in BH accretion in cosmological zoom-in simulations from the FIRE project, ranging from dwarf galaxies to galaxies sufficiently massive to host luminous quasars. The simulations model multichannel stellar feedback, but neglect AGN feedback. We show that multiple physical properties, including halo mass, galaxy stellar mass, and depth of the central gravitational potential correlate with accelerated BH fuelling: constant thresholds in these properties are typically crossed within ∼0.1 Hubble time of accelerated BH fuelling. Black hole masses increase sharply when the stellar surface density in the inner 1 kpc crosses a threshold $\Sigma^\star _{1\,\rm kpc}\approx 10^{9.5} \, {\rm M_{\odot }}\,{\rm kpc}^{-2}$, a characteristic value above which gravity prevents stellar feedback from ejecting gas, and similar to the value above which galaxies are observed to quench. We further show that accelerated BH growth correlates with the emergence of long-lived thin gas discs, as well as with virialization of the inner circumgalactic medium. The halo mass Mhalo ∼ 1012 M⊙ and stellar mass M* ∼ 1010.5 M⊙ at which BH growth accelerates correspond to ∼L⋆ galaxies. The fact that stellar feedback becomes inefficient at ejecting gas from the nucleus above this mass scale may play an important role in explaining why AGN feedback appears to be most important in galaxies above L⋆.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Global Boreal Forest Mapping with JERS-1: North America

Collaborative effort is underway to map boreal forests worldwide using L-band, single polarization Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) imagery from the Japanese Earth Resources (JERS-1) satellite. Final products of the North American Boreal Forest Mapping Project will include two continental scale radar mosaics and supplementary multitemporal mosaics for Alaska, central Canada, and eastern Canada. For selected sites, we are also producing local scale (100 km x 100 km) and regional scale maps (1000 km x 1000 km). As with the nearly completed Amazon component of the Global Rain Forest Mapping project, SAR imagery, radar image mosaics and SAR-derived texture image products will be available to the scientific community on the World Wide Web. Image acquisition for this project has been completed and processing and image interpretation is underway at the Alaska SAR Facility.

Williams, Cynthia L.↗

Calculating Soil Wetness, Evapotranspiration and Carbon Cycle Processes Over Large Grid Areas Using a New Scaling Technique

Soil wetness typically shows great spatial variability over the length scales of general circulation model (GCM) grid areas (approx 100 km ), and the functions relating evapotranspiration and photosynthetic rate to local-scale (approx 1 m) soil wetness are highly non-linear. Soil respiration is also highly dependent on very small-scale variations in soil wetness. We therefore expect significant inaccuracies whenever we insert a single grid area-average soil wetness value into a function to calculate any of these rates for the grid area. For the particular case of evapotranspiration., this method - use of a grid-averaged soil wetness value - can also provoke severe oscillations in the evapotranspiration rate and soil wetness under some conditions. A method is presented whereby the probability distribution timction(pdf) for soil wetness within a grid area is represented by binning. and numerical integration of the binned pdf is performed to provide a spatially-integrated wetness stress term for the whole grid area, which then permits calculation of grid area fluxes in a single operation. The method is very accurate when 10 or more bins are used, can deal realistically with spatially variable precipitation, conserves moisture exactly and allows for precise modification of the soil wetness pdf after every time step. The method could also be applied to other ecological problems where small-scale processes must be area-integrated, or upscaled, to estimate fluxes over large areas, for example in treatments of the terrestrial carbon budget or trace gas generation.

Sellers, Piers↗

A new phenomenological model to describe root-soil interactions based on percolation theory

In his paper on net primary productivity of terrestrial communities predicted from climatological data, Rosenzweig (1968) argued that variability in productivity is well accounted for by (evapo)-transpiration, and that water from transpiration is, on global scales, the most variable component in the photosynthesis reaction. The goal of this paper is to investigate whether variability in plant growth on local scales and within species is primarily related to transpiration under several scenarios including different terrain curvature, slope aspect, soil characteristics, and climate ranges. Here, we test the hypothesis that this relationship exists because root growth into the surface soil layers (0–2 m) tends to follow paths with minima in resistance, which in turn maximizes water flow and nutrient delivery rates that regulate growth. The set of all connected paths with individual pore-to-pore flow resistances less than a critical, percolating, value forms a cluster with mass fractal dimensionality, d f . We propose that roots follow paths through the 2D percolation cluster, defining the set of all optimal flow paths, making the 2D value of d f from percolation relevant to root fractal dimensionality. The tortuosity of such optimal paths as defined in percolation theory should then relate root length to root radial extent, linking the parameters of root tortuosity and plant productivity. Our analysis of large data sets across species implies that root radial extent and tree height are both proportional to cumulative transpiration until trees approached maximum height, and their growth rates are proportional to the transpiration rate, not to the moisture content. Local variations in tree height as functions of the variables investigated appear generally consistent with deduced variations in transpiration. Here this correlation is investigated more closely in the context of studies addressing individual tree species.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Diagnosing the Sensitivity of Local Land-Atmosphere Coupling via the Soil Moisture-Boundary Layer Interaction

The inherent coupled nature of earth s energy and water cycles places significant importance on the proper representation and diagnosis of land atmosphere (LA) interactions in hydrometeorological prediction models. However, the precise nature of the soil moisture precipitation relationship at the local scale is largely determined by a series of nonlinear processes and feedbacks that are difficult to quantify. To quantify the strength of the local LA coupling (LoCo), this process chain must be considered both in full and as individual components through their relationships and sensitivities. To address this, recent modeling and diagnostic studies have been extended to 1) quantify the processes governing LoCo utilizing the thermodynamic properties of mixing diagrams, and 2) diagnose the sensitivity of coupled systems, including clouds and moist processes, to perturbations in soil moisture. This work employs NASA s Land Information System (LIS) coupled to the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model and simulations performed over the U.S. Southern Great Plains. The behavior of different planetary boundary layers (PBL) and land surface scheme couplings in LIS WRF are examined in the context of the evolution of thermodynamic quantities that link the surface soil moisture condition to the PBL regime, clouds, and precipitation. Specifically, the tendency toward saturation in the PBL is quantified by the lifting condensation level (LCL) deficit and addressed as a function of time and space. The sensitivity of the LCL deficit to the soil moisture condition is indicative of the strength of LoCo, where both positive and negative feedbacks can be identified. Overall, this methodology can be applied to any model or observations and is a crucial step toward improved evaluation and quantification of LoCo within models, particularly given the advent of next-generation satellite measurements of PBL and land surface properties along with advances in data assimilation schemes.

Santanello, Joseph A., Jr.↗

The vertical structure and stability of accretion disks surrounding black holes and neutron stars

The structure and stability of the inner regions of accretion disks surrounding neutron stars and black holes have been investigated. Within the framework of the alpha viscosity prescription for optically thick disks, we assume the viscous stress scales with gas pressure only, and the alpha parameter, which is less than or equal to unity, is formulated as alpha(sub 0)(h/r)(exp n), where h is the local scale height and n and alpha(sub 0) are constants. We neglect advective energy transport associated with radial motions and construct the vertical structure of the disks by assuming a Keplerian rotation law and local hydrostatic and thermal equilibrium. The vertical structures have been calculated with and without convective energy transport, and it has been demonstrated that convection is important especially for mass accretion rates, M-dot, greater than about 0.1 times the Eddington value, M-dot(sub Edd). Although the efficiency of convection is not high, convection significantly modifies the vertical structure of the disk (as compared with a purely radiative model) and leads to lower temperatures at a given M-dot. The results show that the disk can be locally unstable and that for n greater than or = 0.75, an S-shaped relation can exist between M-dot and the column density, sigma, at a given radius. While the lower stable branch (derivative of M-dot/derivative of sigma greater than 0) and middle unstable branch (derivative of M-dot/derivative of sigma less than 0) represent structures for which the gas and radiation pressure dominate respectively, the stable upper branch (derivative of M-dot/derivative of sigma greater than 0) is a consequence of the saturation of alpha. This saturation of alpha can occur for large alpha(sub 0) and at M-dot less than or = M-dot(sub Edd). The instability is found to occur at higher mass accretion rates for neutron stars than for black holes. In particular, the disk is locally unstable for M-dot greater than or = 0.5 M-dot(sub Edd) for neutron stars and for M-dot greater than or = M-dot(sub Edd) for black holes for a viscosity prescription characterized by n = 1 and alpha(sub 0) = 10.

Milsom, J. A.↗

University of Hawai‘i, Shallow Geothermal Resources: Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (Final Report)

Scientists at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (Berkeley Lab) have teamed up with the University of Hawai‘i at Manoa (UH Manoa) through the U.S. Department of Energy’s Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project to evaluate the technological and market feasibility of shallow geothermal heat exchanger (GHE) technology. UH requested this analysis to evaluate opportunities in building cooling, energy efficiency, and emissions reduction applications in Hawai‘i. UH has an abundance of geologic and geothermal data and is looking to the national labs’ expertise to execute this analysis. UH is also interested in investigating policy, regulatory, and business conditions advantageous for implementation of a pilot project and more broad deployment of this technology in Hawai‘i. In many locations around the world, the demands for heating and cooling are roughly balanced over the course of the year, so GHEs do not cause significant long-term changes in subsurface temperature. This is not the case in Hawai’i, where the demand for heating is very small, meaning that, over time, GHEs will add heat to the subsurface. If temperatures increase significantly, GHE systems will not work as designed. Regional groundwater flow has the potential to sweep heated water away from boreholes, thereby maintaining the functionality of the GHE system. Significant regional groundwater flow requires two things: a sufficiently large driving hydraulic head gradient (usually closely related to surface topography), and sufficient porosity and permeability to enable groundwater to flow in large enough quantities to enable near-borehole temperatures to be maintained at ambient values. Hawai‘i’s volcanic terrain offers ample surface topographic variation. The lava itself shows an extremely large range of porosity and permeability, so sites with large enough values of these properties must be selected. Numerical modeling of coupled groundwater and heat flow can be used to determine how large is large enough. Primarily, closed-loop systems have been investigated. Other options considered are open-loop systems and using cool seawater as the chilling source. Project work investigated the feasibility of GHE technology at two scales. At the island scale, GIS layers of various attributes relevant for GHE were combined to develop an overall favorability map for employing GHE in Hawai‘i. At the local scale, a hydrogeologic model for the subsurface component of a closed-loop system was developed for the Stan Sheriff Center at the UH Manoa campus. This site is considered promising because the rock below and immediately downgradient of the borefield is highly permeable, consisting of a subsurface karst system (limestone containing high-permeability open channels), which is underlain by a thick, high-permeability fractured basalt. Moreover, the site is near the base of the Ko‘olau Range, providing a large hydraulic head gradient. Thus, groundwater flow through the site is expected to be large, enabling efficient removal of heated groundwater. A full-GHE-system model of the site was also developed, with a simplified representation of the subsurface, in which groundwater flow is not considered and heat transfer is purely by conduction. Using the building cooling load data provided by UH, simulation results show that with groundwater flow present, a GHE can operate successfully for at least 10 years, but with no groundwater flow, the subsurface begins to heat up after only one year of operation, making the GHE unviable within 2-6 years. The team also developed a techno-economic model for this site to compare the cost of cooling using a GHE system with the costs of operating the current air-conditioning system. The GHE system is advantageous economically if favorable tax incentives and interest rates can be obtained.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Multi-scale assessment of a grassland productivity model

Grasslands provide many important ecosystem services globally, and projecting grassland productivity in the coming decades will provide valuable information to land managers. Productivity models can be well calibrated at local scales but generally have some maximum spatial scale in which they perform well. Here we evaluate a grassland productivity model to find the optimal spatial scale for parameterization and thus for subsequently applying it in future productivity projections for North America. We also evaluated the model on new vegetation types to ascertain its potential generality. We find the model most suitable when incorporating only grasslands, as opposed to also including agriculture and shrublands, and only in the Great Plains and eastern temperate forest ecoregions of North America. The model was not well suited to grasslands in North American deserts or northwest forest ecoregions. It also performed poorly in agriculture vegetation, likely due to management activities, and shrubland vegetation, likely because the model lacks representation of deep water pools. This work allows us to perform long-term projections in areas where model performance has been verified, with gaps filled in by future modeling efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗