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DOE OSTI2026

Topology-Informed Design Rules for Deconstructable Thermoset Copolymer Networks

Existing models of thermoset deconstruction facilitated by incorporating cleavable comonomers rely on a mean-field reverse gel point paradigm, which predicts network dissolution once cleavable bonds reach a critical stoichiometric threshold, but does not account for where those bonds reside within the network architecture. Using reactive coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations coupled with graph-theoretic analysis, we extend this stoichiometric picture to show that deconstructability is governed by the curing-imprinted network topology rather than stoichiometry alone. This topological organization is hierarchical: at the local scale, the elastic effectiveness of cross-link junctions determines which cross-links constitute the load-bearing scaffold; at the mesoscale, the cross-linking rate kinetically templates that scaffold into topologically modular communities─densely cross-linked clusters connected by sparse bridging strands that sustain network connectivity. Using betweenness centrality to identify nodes that disproportionately lie on intercommunity shortest paths, we demonstrate that effective deconstruction of the network into macromolecular fragments requires cleavable comonomers to intercept these high-centrality bridging strands. We further find that under uniform, disassortative comonomer incorporation, this topological requirement provides a mechanistic basis for extending the reverse gel point to incorporate network topology. We also show that modularity imposes a fundamental limit on fragment uniformity that persists even when the centrality requirement is met. Finally, we demonstrate that chain stiffness provides a nearly independent lever to suppress mechanically redundant cross-links and raise the glass transition temperature without significantly altering the deconstruction outcome. Together, these findings reframe the thermoset design space around network topology and provide actionable guidelines for engineering thermoset copolymers with predictable deconstructability and targeted thermomechanical performance.

coarse-grained molecular dynamics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluation of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height From Wind Profiling Radar and Slab Models and Its Responses to Seasonality of Land Cover, Subsidence, and Advection

In this study, we evaluated the effect of land cover, atmospheric subsidence, and advection on the annual dynamics of atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) height from two contrasting sites. The first site is the Walker Branch forest, a deciduous forest of temperate climate, complex topography, and cloudy summers. The second site is the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, a site of Mediterranean climate, flat terrain on a local scale, and clear summers. After testing a new algorithm to calculate ABL heights from 915 MHz radar wind profilers, we evaluated a hierarchy of three slab models to recreate the diurnal and annual patterns of ABL growth. We found that the lower ABL heights in the Delta, particularly during late summer, are driven by the combined effects of increased atmospheric subsidence and marine air advection. In both sites, the annual pattern of ABL height was strongly correlated to total daily incoming radiation, and in the Delta, the annual pattern of ABL height closely followed the seasonal patterns of sensible heat flux from a mosaic of different land covers. A land composite of latent and sensible heat fluxes obtained through a meso-network of eddy covariance measurements and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station (ECOSTRESS) mission resulted in higher model skill, thus showing that land cover heterogeneity is an important driver of ABL growth. To conclude, model simulations show that in the Delta, restoring agricultural land to wetlands with large open water areas could result in a reduction of ABL height during those months with low subsidence and advection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Permafrost microbial communities and functional genes are structured by latitudinal and soil geochemical gradients

Permafrost underlies approximately one quarter of Northern Hemisphere terrestrial surfaces and contains 25–50% of the global soil carbon (C) pool. Permafrost soils and the C stocks within are vulnerable to ongoing and future projected climate warming. The biogeography of microbial communities inhabiting permafrost has not been examined beyond a small number of sites focused on local-scale variation. Permafrost is different from other soils. Perennially frozen conditions in permafrost dictate that microbial communities do not turn over quickly, thus possibly providing strong linkages to past environments. Thus, the factors structuring the composition and function of microbial communities may differ from patterns observed in other terrestrial environments. Here, we analyzed 133 permafrost metagenomes from North America, Europe, and Asia. Permafrost biodiversity and taxonomic distribution varied in relation to pH, latitude and soil depth. The distribution of genes differed by latitude, soil depth, age, and pH. Genes that were the most highly variable across all sites were associated with energy metabolism and C-assimilation. Specifically, methanogenesis, fermentation, nitrate reduction, and replenishment of citric acid cycle intermediates. This suggests that adaptations to energy acquisition and substrate availability are among some of the strongest selective pressures shaping permafrost microbial communities. The spatial variation in metabolic potential has primed communities for specific biogeochemical processes as soils thaw due to climate change, which could cause regional- to global- scale variation in C and nitrogen processing and greenhouse gas emissions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Orientation-dependent mutual crystalline and amorphous order in a single phase solid

Amorphous materials distinguish themselves from crystalline materials by lacking long-range order while retaining structural order at the local scale (2–5 Å). However, the complexity in topological and chemical order prevents current characterization tools from fully unveiling the structure in disordered materials. Consequently, the nature of medium-range order in amorphous materials has remained elusive. The Zachariasen and crystal competing models have been proposed to describe disordered phases and have both been verified through synthesis and characterization. The main difference between them is thought to be whether the amorphous phase shows medium-range order. Here we demonstrate a form of organized inorganic matter that is amorphous in two dimensions, while exhibiting long-range order and a high degree of crystallinity in the third. The structure consists of periodically stacked 2-dimensional amorphous Nb-W-O monolayers without long-range in-plane order. The unique periodic and therefore crystalline stacking along one principal axis enables direct imaging and revealed that the amorphous Nb-W-O monolayers formed in agreement with the Zachariasen model for 2 dimensions. Our findings show that the gap between crystalline and amorphous materials does not only depend on medium-range order but can also apply to principal dimensions within the same solid.

Nanowires↗

DOE OSTI2021

Moiré nematic phase in twisted double bilayer graphene

Graphene moiré superlattices display electronic flat bands. At integer fillings of these flat bands, energy gaps due to strong electron-electron interactions are generally observed. However, the presence of other correlation-driven phases in twisted graphitic systems at non-integer fillings is unclear. Here, we report the existence of threefold rotational symmetry breaking in twisted double bilayer graphene. Using spectroscopic imaging over large and uniform areas to characterize the direction and degree of C 3 symmetry breaking, we find it to be prominent only at energies corresponding to the flat bands and nearly absent in the remote bands. We demonstrate that the magnitude of the rotational symmetry breaking does not depend on the degree of the heterostrain or the displacement field, being instead a manifestation of an interaction-driven electronic nematic phase. We show that the nematic phase is a primary order that arises from the normal metal state over a wide range of doping away from charge. Furthermore, our modelling suggests that the nematic instability is not associated with the local scale of the graphene lattice, but is an emergent phenomenon at the scale of the moiré lattice.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2021

Downscaling SSP-consistent global spatial urban land projections from 1/8-degree to 1-km resolution 2000–2100

Abstract Long-term, spatial urban land projections that simultaneously offer global coverage and local-scale empirical accuracy are rare. Recently a set of such projections was produced using data-science-based simulations and the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). These projections update at decadal time intervals from 2000 to 2100 with a spatial resolution of 1/8 degree, while many socio-environmental studies customarily run their analysis and modelling at finer spatial resolutions, e.g. 1-km. Here we develop and validate an algorithm to downscale the 1/8-degree spatial urban land projections to the 1-km resolution. The algorithm uses an iterative process to allocate the decadal amount of urban land expansion originally projected for each 1/8-degree grid to its constituent 1-km grids. The results are a set of global maps showing urban land fractions at the 1-km resolution, updated at decadal intervals from 2000 to 2100, under five different urban land expansion scenarios consistent with the SSPs. The data can support studies of potential interactions between future urbanization and environmental changes across spatial and temporal scales.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

20% of US electricity from wind will have limited impacts on system efficiency and regional climate

Abstract Impacts from current and future wind turbine (WT) deployments necessary to achieve 20% electricity from wind are analyzed using high resolution numerical simulations over the eastern USA. Theoretical scenarios for future deployments are based on repowering (i.e. replacing with higher capacity WTs) thus avoiding competition for land. Simulations for the contemporary climate and current WT deployments exhibit good agreement with observed electricity generation efficiency (gross capacity factors (CF) from simulations = 45–48%, while net CF for WT installed in 2016 = 42.5%). Under the scenario of quadrupled installed capacity there is a small decrease in system-wide efficiency as indicated by annual mean CF. This difference is approximately equal to that from the two simulation years and may reflect saturation of the wind resource in some areas. WT modify the local near-surface climate in the grid cells where they are deployed. The simulated impact on near-surface climate properties at both the regional and local scales does not increase with increasing WT installed capacity. Climate impacts from WT are modest compared to regional changes induced by historical changes in land cover and to the global temperature perturbation induced by use of coal to generate an equivalent amount of electricity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Downscaling and bias-correction contribute considerable uncertainty to local climate projections in CMIP6

Abstract Efforts to diagnose the risks of a changing climate often rely on downscaled and bias-corrected climate information, making it important to understand the uncertainties and potential biases of this approach. Here, we perform a variance decomposition to partition uncertainty in global climate projections and quantify the relative importance of downscaling and bias-correction. We analyze simple climate metrics such as annual temperature and precipitation averages, as well as several indices of climate extremes. We find that downscaling and bias-correction often contribute substantial uncertainty to local decision-relevant climate outcomes, though our results are strongly heterogeneous across space, time, and climate metrics. Our results can provide guidance to impact modelers and decision-makers regarding the uncertainties associated with downscaling and bias-correction when performing local-scale analyses, as neglecting to account for these uncertainties may risk overconfidence relative to the full range of possible climate futures.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

GA-NIFS and EIGER: A merging quasar host at z = 7 with an overmassive black hole

The James Webb Space Telescope is revolutionising our ability to understand the host galaxies and local environments of high-z quasars. Here we obtain a comprehensive understanding of the host galaxy of the z = 7.08 quasar J1120+0641 by combining NIRSpec integral field spectroscopy with NIRCam photometry of the host continuum emission. Our emission-line maps reveal that this quasar host is undergoing a merger with a bright companion galaxy. The quasar host and the companion have similar dynamical masses of ∼10 10 M ⊙ , suggesting that this is a major galaxy interaction. Through detailed quasar subtraction and SED fitting using the NIRCam data, we obtained an estimate of the host stellar mass of M ∗ = (3.0 −1.4 +2.5 ) × 10 9 M ⊙ , with M ∗ = (2.7 −0.5 +0.5 ) × 10 9 M ⊙ for the companion galaxy. Using the Hβ Balmer line, we estimated a virial black hole mass of M BH = (1.9 −1.1 +2.9 ) × 109 M ⊙ . Thus, J1120+0641 has an extreme black hole–stellar mass ratio of M BH /M ∗ = 0.63 −0.31 +0.54 , which is ∼3 dex larger than expected by the local scaling relations between black hole and stellar mass. J1120+0641 is powered by an overmassive black hole with the highest reported black hole–stellar mass ratio in a quasar host that is currently undergoing a major merger. These new insights highlight the power of JWST for measuring and understanding these extreme first quasars.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

How well do one-electron self-interaction-correction methods perform for systems with fractional electrons?

Recently developed locally scaled self-interaction correction (LSIC) is a one-electron SIC method that, when used with a ratio of kinetic energy densities (z σ ) as iso-orbital indicator, performs remarkably well for both thermochemical properties as well as for barrier heights overcoming the paradoxical behavior of the well-known Perdew–Zunger self-interaction correction (PZSIC) method. In this work, we examine how well the LSIC method performs for the delocalization error. Our results show that both LSIC and PZSIC methods correctly describe the dissociation of $H$$^{+}_{2}$ and $H$$^{+}_{2}$ but LSIC is overall more accurate than the PZSIC method. Likewise, in the case of the vertical ionization energy of an ensemble of isolated He atoms, the LSIC and PZSIC methods do not exhibit delocalization errors. For the fractional charges, both LSIC and PZSIC significantly reduce the deviation from linearity in the energy vs number of electrons curve, with PZSIC performing superior for C, Ne, and Ar atoms while for Kr they perform similarly. The LSIC performs well at the endpoints (integer occupations) while substantially reducing the deviation. The dissociation of LiF shows both LSIC and PZSIC dissociate into neutral Li and F but only LSIC exhibits charge transfer from Li + to F – at the expected distance from the experimental data and accurate ab initio data. Overall, both the PZSIC and LSIC methods reduce the delocalization errors substantially.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Atomic ionization: sd energy imbalance and Perdew–Zunger self-interaction correction energy penalty in 3d atoms

To accurately describe the energetics of transition metal systems, density functional approximations (DFAs) must provide a balanced description of s- and d- electrons. One measure of this is the sd transfer error, which has previously been defined as E ( 3 d n − 1 4 s 1 ) − E ( 3 d n − 2 4 s 2 ) . Theoretical concerns have been raised about this definition due to its evaluation of excited-state energies using ground-state DFAs. A more serious concern appears to be strong correlation in the 4s 2 configuration. Here, we define a ground-state measure of the sd energy imbalance, based on the errors of s- and d-electron second ionization energies of the 3d atoms, that effectively circumvents the aforementioned problems. We find an improved performance as we move from the local spin density approximation (LSDA) to the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof (PBE) generalized gradient approximation (GGA) to the regularized and restored Strongly Constrained and Appropriately Normed (r 2 SCAN) meta-GGA for first-row transition metal atoms. However, we find large (∼2 eV) ground-state sd energy imbalances when applying a Perdew–Zunger 1981 self-interaction correction. This is attributed to an “energy penalty” associated with the noded 3d orbitals. A local scaling of the self-interaction correction to LSDA results in a balance of s- and d-errors.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2024

Albedo of crops as a nature-based climate solution to global warming

Abstract Surface albedo can affect the energy budget and subsequently cause localized warming or cooling of the climate. When we convert a substantial portion of lands to agriculture, land surface properties are consequently altered, including albedo. Through crop selection and management, one can increase crop albedo to obtain higher levels of localized cooling effects to mitigate global warming. Still, there is little understanding about how distinctive features of a cropping system may be responsible for elevated albedo and consequently for the cooling potential of cultivated lands. To address this pressing issue, we conducted seasonal measurements of surface reflectivity during five growing seasons on annual crops of corn-soybean–winter wheat ( Zea mays L.- Glycine max L. Merrill - Triticum aestivum L. ; CSW) rotations at three agronomic intensities, a monoculture of perennial switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum L. ), and perennial polycultures of early successional and restored prairie grasslands. We found that crop-species, agronomic intensity, seasonality, and plant phenology had significant effects on albedo. The mean±SD albedo was highest in perennial crops of switchgrass (0.179±0.04), intermediate in early successional crops (0.170±0.04), and lowest in a reduced input corn systems with cover crops (0.154±0.02). The strongest cooling potentials were found in soybean (-0.450 kg CO 2 e m -2 yr -1 ) and switchgrass (-0.367 kg CO 2 e m -2 yr -1 ), with up to -0.265 kg CO 2 e m -2 yr -1 of localized climate cooling annually provided by different agroecosystems. We also demonstrated how diverse ecosystems, leaf canopy, and agronomic practices can affect surface reflectivity and provide another potential nature-based solution for reducing global warming at localized scales.

Lei, Cheyenne (ORCID:0000000272746309)↗

DOE OSTI2025

Climate Nowcasting

The climate is changing so rapidly that climatologies based on historical statistics cannot reliably capture the current risk of extreme weather events hazardous to society. Decision relevant projections of weather extreme probability over the next 10–15 years are needed to enable adaptation and resilience in the face of this evolving risk. Current weather forecasts/predictions and long-term climate projections for decades into the future are inadequate for providing this information to stakeholders that need it, targeting forecast horizons either too short or too far into the future. We argue that a new approach is needed: climate nowcasting. Climate nowcasting would focus on user-inspired extreme metrics over the next 10–15 year time frame, targeting specific impacts and locations down to a local scale, by engaging with stakeholders to understand their needs and provide information in a format relevant for decision making. Importantly, climate nowcasting will not consist of a single approach or data set, involving rather data fusion from different sources of information: simulations, observations and data driven methods, likely through different weights depending on the metric of interest. Predictions must be accompanied by serious engagement with stakeholders facing climate risks, and clearly present uncertainties and limitations of any prediction. Such a vision is very different from how typical climate or weather forecasts are applied today.

Gettelman, Andrew↗

DOE OSTI2023

Clonality, local population structure, and gametophyte sex ratios in cryptic species of the Sphagnum magellanicum complex

Sphagnum (peatmoss) comprises a moss (Bryophyta) clade with approximately 300-500 species. The genus has unparalleled ecological importance because Sphagnum-dominated peatlands store almost a third of the terrestrial carbon pool and peatmosses engineer the formation and microtopography of peatlands. Genomic resources for Sphagnum are being actively expanded, but many aspects of their biology are still poorly known. Among these are the degree to which Sphagnum species reproduce asexually, and the relative frequencies of male and female gametophytes in these haploid-dominant plants. Here, we assess clonality and gametophyte sex ratios and test hypotheses about the local-scale distribution of clones and sexes in four North American species of the S. magellanicum complex. These four species are difficult to distinguish morphologically and are very closely related. We also assess microbial communities associated with Sphagnum host plant clones and sexes at two sites. 405 samples of the four species, representing 57 populations, were subjected to RADseq. Analyses of population structure and clonality based on the molecular data utilized both phylogenetic and phenetic approaches. Multi-locus genotypes (genets) were identified using the RADseq data. Sexes of sampled ramets were determined using a molecular approach that utilized coverage of loci on the sex chromosomes after the method was validated using a sample of plants that expressed sex phenotypically. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Differences in fitness between genets was estimated as the numbers of ramets each genet comprised. Degree of clonality (numbers of genets/numbers of ramets [samples]) within species, among sites, and between gametophyte sexes were estimated. Sex ratios were estimated for each species, and populations within species. Sphagnum-associated microbial communities were assessed at two sites in relation to Sphagnum clonality and sex. All four species appear to engage in a mixture of sexual and asexual (clonal) reproduction. A single ramet represents most genets but 2-8 ramets were detected for some genets. Only one genet is represented by ramets in multiple populations; all other genets are restricted to a single population. Within populations ramets of individual genets are spatially clustered, suggesting limited dispersal even within peatlands. Sex ratios are male-biased in S. diabolicum but female-biased in the other three species, although significantly so only in S. divinum. Neither species nor males/females differ in levels of clonal propagation. At St. Regis Lake (NY) and Franklin Bog (VT), microbial community composition is strongly differentiated between the sites, but differences between species, genets, and sexes were not detected. Within S. divinum, however, female gametophytes harbored 2-3 times the number oi of microbial taxa as males. These four Sphagnum species all exhibit a similar reproductive patterns that result from a mixture of sexual and asexual reproduction. The spatial patterns of clonally replicated ramets of genets suggest that these species fall between the so-called phalanx patterns where genets abut one another but do not extensively mix, because of limited ramet fragmentation, and the guerrilla patterns where extensive genet fragmentation and dispersal results in greater mixing of different genets. Although sex ratios in bryophytes are most often female-biased, both male and female biases occur in this complex of closely related species. The association of far greater microbial diversity for female gametophytes in S. divinum, which has a female-biased sex ratio, suggests additional research to determine if levels of microbial diversity are consistently correlated with differing patterns of sex ratio biases.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Atomic structural mechanism for ferroelectric-antiferroelectric transformation in perovskite NaNbO 3

Sodium niobate (NaNbO 3 or NN) is described as “the most complex perovskite system,” which exhibits transitions between, as well as coexistence of, several ferroelectrics (FE) and antiferroelectric (AFE) phases at different temperatures. Recently, solid solutions of NN with stabilized AFE phases(s) have gained attention for energy-related applications, such as high-density energy storage and electrocaloric cooling. A better understanding of the atomic mechanisms responsible for AFE/FE phase transitions in NaNbO 3 can enable a more rational design of its solid-solution systems with tunable functional properties. In this work, we have investigated changes in the average and local atomic structure of NN using a combination of x-ray/neutron diffraction and neutron pair-distribution function (PDF) analyses. The Rietveld refinement of the x-ray/neutron-diffraction patterns indicates a coexistence of the FE Q (P2 1 ma) and AFE P (Pbma) phases in the temperature range of 300 K ≤ T ≤ 615K, while PDF analysis indicated that the local structure (r < 8Å) is better described by a P2 1 ma symmetry. Above 615 K, the average structure transitions to an AFE R phase (Pmmn or Pnma), while PDF analysis shows an increased disordering of the octahedral distortions and Na displacements at the local scale. These results indicate that the average P/Q/R phase transitions in NN can be described as a result of complex ordering of distorted octahedral tilts at the nanoscale and off-centered displacements of the Na atoms.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

DOE OSTI2024

Empirically Categorizing the Built Environment in Relation to Height

Buildings are a core component of the urban environment and affect human populations, energy usage, city development, city planning, and urban heat islands. Buildings span an enormous range of sizes, from a 2m tall shelter to the Burj Khalifa; and at the same time there are widely recognized categories of similar buildings, with homes, office buildings, or skyscrapers as some examples. Currently, there is no consistent method to quantitatively determine how a building should be categorized by its height, or how many categories there should be within the built environment. Additionally, these categories vary spatially, leading to multiple definitions at local scales of what it means to be a tall, medium, or short building. Here, we find across 17.59 million buildings in the United States, Germany, and Japan, that applying a K-nearest neighbor approach to quantitatively bin the built environment outperforms the current state-of-the-art, subjective domain knowledge. This was evidenced as our method of leveraging a K-nearest neighbor improved upon the existing approach of using domain knowledge by 10% with respect to precision, recall, F1-score and accuracy. Our results showcase the finding that it is possible to generate a global and consistent approach to categorizing the built environment in relation to height. This is significant in that there is now a quantitative way to categorize the built environment based on building height at a global scale, allowing researchers a consistent platform for comparison and collaboration across various applications.

Stipek, Clinton↗

DOE OSTI2025

Intersection of Hydrologic Change and Hydropower in the United States: Needs for Future Research and Practice

Hydropower is crucial for electric‐grid stability in the context of variable renewables but faces threats from changing hydrology. Here, we summarize the state of the science at the intersection of hydropower operations and planning, hydrologic science, and climate. We focus on the United States, outlining research, development, and training needs. Key knowledge gaps include the risk that intensification of compound extreme events poses to future generation, as well as uncertainties surrounding greenhouse gas emissions from hydropower reservoirs with relevance to hydropower's role in energy decarbonization. Quantifying such impacts and reducing uncertainty are critical where possible, but remaining irreducible or deep uncertainty will require new approaches. Future monitoring and modeling methods must provide a better understanding of the complexity inherent in large watersheds that is critical to managing both hydropower and watersheds in the context of hydrologic change. Yet, research and development will have little impact if they do not inform practice. Standardization and consolidation of platforms are essential for data, modeling, and tool translation to local scales and small operators. An enhanced industry‐academia dialog is pivotal for fostering a robust pipeline of hydropower professionals. Collaboration among researchers, policymakers, authorities, and industry stakeholders emerges as a recurring theme, highlighting the imperative for collective efforts.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2023

Asymmetric response of Amazon forest water and energy fluxes to wet and dry hydrological extremes reveals onset of a local drought-induced tipping point

Understanding the effects of intensification of Amazon basin hydrological cycling—manifest as increasingly frequent floods and droughts—on water and energy cycles of tropical forests is essential to meeting the challenge of predicting ecosystem responses to climate change, including forest “tipping points”. Here, we investigated the impacts of hydrological extremes on forest function using 12+ years of observations (between 2001–2020) of water and energy fluxes from eddy covariance, along with associated ecological dynamics from biometry, at the Tapajós National Forest. Measurements encompass the strong 2015–2016 El Niño drought and La Niña 2008–2009 wet events. We found that the forest responded strongly to El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO): Drought reduced water availability for evapotranspiration ( ET ) leading to large increases in sensible heat fluxes ( H ). Partitioning ET by an approach that assumes transpiration ( T ) is proportional to photosynthesis, we found that water stress-induced reductions in canopy conductance ( G s ) drove T declines partly compensated by higher evaporation ( E ). By contrast, the abnormally wet La Niña period gave higher T and lower E , with little change in seasonal ET . Both El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events resulted in changes in forest structure, manifested as lower wet-season leaf area index. However, only during El Niño 2015–2016, we observed a breakdown in the strong meteorological control of transpiration fluxes (via energy availability and atmospheric demand) because of slowing vegetation functions (via shutdown of G s and significant leaf shedding). Drought-reduced T and G s , higher H and E , amplified by feedbacks with higher temperatures and vapor pressure deficits, signaled that forest function had crossed a threshold, from which it recovered slowly, with delay, post-drought. In conclusion, identifying such tipping point onsets (beyond which future irreversible processes may occur) at local scale is crucial for predicting basin-scale threshold-crossing changes in forest energy and water cycling, leading to slow-down in forest function, potentially resulting in Amazon forests shifting into alternate degraded states.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗