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DOE OSTI2025

Forecasting Multi-Step-Ahead Street-Scale Nuisance Flooding using a seq2seq LSTM Surrogate Model for Real-Time Application in a Coastal-Urban City

In coastal-urban cities facing an elevated risk of nuisance flooding (by rain and tide) due to increased heavy rainfall, sea level rise, urbanization, and aging drainage systems, real-time flood forecasting at the street-scale can provide useful information to transportation decision-makers. Physics-Based Models (PBMs) that offer high accuracy come with high computational runtimes and costs that limit their application for real-time flood forecasting. To address this challenge, Machine Learning (ML) surrogate models trained from PBMs have been proposed to provide street-scale flood forecasts. Previous related studies have focused on using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) architectures to model hourly flood depth on streets. While LSTM models can capture input sequences effectively, they fall short in accurately preserving output sequences, limiting their suitability for multi-step-ahead forecasts. The seq2seq LSTM architecture offers a key advantage here by capturing the full sequence of input–output, making it potentially more suitable for multi-step-ahead flood forecasts compared to traditional LSTM models. However, seq2seq LSTM has not been tested for street-scale flood forecasting, particularly for rapidly fluctuating nuisance flooding events which require special attention to its temporal sequences. Hence, in this study, we applied the seq2seq LSTM model to explore multi-step-ahead street-scale nuisance flooding and compared its results to the traditional LSTM model as a benchmark model. LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models were applied to 22 flood-prone streets in Norfolk, Virginia, as a case study with a 4-hr (short-term) and 8-hr (long-term) lead time. The models were trained with environmental (rainfall and tide) and topographic (elevation, Topographic Wetness Index, and Depth-To-Water) features along with PBM-derived water depths for different storm events. The results demonstrated satisfactory performance of both LSTM and seq2seq LSTM surrogate models throughout the forecast period compared to the PBM. However, the seq2seq LSTM showed lower Mean Absolute Error (MAE)/ Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and higher Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE)/ correlation than the LSTM across most lead times, particularly for long-term forecasting due to its supremacy in handling both input–output sequences together, which is missing in the traditional LSTM. For example, in the long-term, the average RMSE ranges were 0.0268–0.0373 m for LSTM and 0.0226–0.0319 m for seq2seq LSTM, while in the short-term, they were 0.0263–0.0293 m and 0.0261–0.0283 m, respectively. Additionally, while both models exhibited similar performance in distinguishing flooded and non-flooded streets for flood depth ≥ 0.1 m, the seq2seq LSTM model demonstrated superior performance for higher flood depths (such as ≥ 0.2 m and ≥ 0.3 m). Once trained, inference took only 0.09 to 0.11 s (short-term) and 0.30 to 0.35 s (long-term) per storm event for the 22 streets, making the application highly suitable for real-time decision-making during nuisance flood events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

MIKA: Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access Toolkit for Engineering Knowledge Discovery and Information Retrieval

Repositories of safety reports are often underutilized and only analyzed manually by trained experts, despite safety management systems requiring reports. These collections of documents contain a wealth of information from past projects and operations that could improve system safety and design. Advances in natural language processing techniques have improved information extraction and retrieval in consumer technology, biomedicine, and finance, for instance, but have not been applied to engineering documents on the same scale. To this end, the Manager for Intelligent Knowledge Access (MIKA) open-source toolkit has been developed for rapid knowledge discovery and information retrieval in safety engineering applications. The MIKA toolkit uses state-of-the-art natural language processing algorithms and allows a user to apply these methods to their own dataset. This paper describes the MIKA toolkit and its two primary capabilities, knowledge discovery and information retrieval, and demonstrates the toolkit via a case study on National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) reports.

Systems Engineering↗

DOE OSTI2026

Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling as Catalysts for Next-Generation Breakthroughs

The Presidential Symposium (PRES) at the 2025 Fall Meeting, hosted by the President’s Office and Energy and Fuels Division, American Chemical Society (ACS) in Washington, DC, brought together a diverse group of chemists, engineers, and materials scientists working in battery materials & systems, automation and artificial intelligence from academia, industry, and national laboratories. The accelerating demand for high-performance, scalable, and sustainable energy storage has catalyzed a paradigm shift in how materials are dis-covered, devices are engineered, and systems are optimized. This Presidential Symposium, entitled “Revolutionizing Energy Storage: AI, Automation, and Advanced Modeling Driving Next-Gen Breakthroughs”, brings together global leaders to unveil transformative strategies anchored in the AAA framework: Artificial Intelligence, Automation, and Advanced Modeling. Artificial Intelligence is redefining the frontiers of energy storage by enabling predictive design, real-time optimization, and intelligent control across diverse chemistries and architectures. Automation is streamlining the synthesis, characterization, and testing of battery materials, dramatically accelerating innovation cycles and unlocking scalable solutions for grid and mobility applications. Advanced Modeling, spanning atomic to system-level scales, provides unprecedented insight into electrochemical dynamics, degradation pathways, and thermal behavior, particularly when coupled with physics-informed machine learning and digital twin technologies. Digital twins, in turn, leverage the AAA framework by integrating real-time data, physics-based models, and AI predictions into dynamic virtual replicas, enabling proactive diagnostics, optimization, and system resilience. Together, these synergistic pillars are not only re-shaping the scientific landscape but also forging a new era of reproducible, data-driven, and resilient energy storage innovation. In conclusion, this symposium marks a pivotal moment in the convergence of computational intelligence and experimental rigor, charting the course for next-generation breakthroughs in lithium-ion, solid-state, and flow battery technologies.

Artificial Intelligence (AI)↗

DOE OSTI2025

One-shot learning for solution operators of partial differential equations

Learning and solving governing equations of a physical system, represented by partial differential equations (PDEs), from data is a central challenge in many areas of science and engineering. Traditional numerical methods can be computationally expensive for complex systems and require complete governing equations. Existing data-driven machine learning methods require large datasets to learn a surrogate solution operator, which could be impractical. Here, we propose a solution operator learning method that requires only one PDE solution, i.e., one-shot learning, along with suitable initial and boundary conditions. Leveraging the locality of derivatives, we define a local solution operator in small local domains, train it using a neural network, and use it to predict solutions of new input functions via mesh-based fixed-point iteration or meshfree neural-network based approaches. We test our method on various PDEs, complex geometries, and a practical spatial infection spread application, demonstrating its effectiveness and generalization capabilities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of DED and LPBF Fe-based Alloys Process Application Envelopes based on Performance, Process Economics, Supply Chain Risks, and Reactor-specific Targeted Components

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program aims to develop extreme-environment materials solutions for use in the deployment of advanced nuclear reactors and the sustainment of the current fleet. To achieve this objective, a combination of experiment, a computational tool, and machine learning (ML) for the design of materials is adopted for the maturation of materials for nuclear technology. Through advanced manufacturing techniques such as laser powder bed fusion (LPBF) and laser powder direct energy deposition (LP-DED), components with complex geometries can be fabricated with reduced time and effort. Such advanced manufacturing methods can also provide the opportunity to improve materials performance through optimized microstructures and mechanical properties. However, existing engineering alloys are not always well suited for fabrication with additive manufacturing (AM), as their compositions have been tuned to optimize fabrication via conventional methods. Thus, similar alloys with modified compositions that are better suited for AM can be studied for improved performance. Over the past three years, the AMMT teams from Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) studied various known Fe-based alloys by evaluating their initial printability using LPBF, and an AMMT-developed down-selection and decision matrix reduced the number of alloys to be studied from six to three in fiscal year (FY) 2024. Additionally, in FY 2024, for parallel evaluation, these three alloys were studied using LPDED. While LPBF is better for small- to medium-sized components with high detail and internal features, LP-DED combines a material feed system to place the powder onto the exact spot where the laser will melt the material. This AM method can be easily scaled to extremely large components and provides high build rate speeds compared to those of conventional LPBF systems. Additionally, DED is a better choice for complex geometries and compositional gradients.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Unsupervised Learning for Improved Gamma-Ray Spectrometry in Pixelated Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) Detectors

Machine learning has been found to be ubiquitously useful across many industries, presenting an opportunity to improve radiation detection performance using data-driven algorithms. Improved detector resolution can aid in the detection, identification, and quantification of radionuclides. Here, in this work, a novel, data-driven, unsupervised learning approach is developed to improve detector spectral characteristics by learning, and subsequently rejecting, poorly performing regions of the pixelated detector. Feature engineering is used to fit individual characteristic photo peaks to a Doniach lineshape with a linear background model. Then, principal component analysis is used to learn a lower-dimension latent space representation of each photo peak where the pixels are clustered, and subsequently ranked, based on the cluster mean distance to an optimal point. Pixels within the worst cluster(s) are rejected to improve the full-width at half-maximum (FWHM) by 10% to 15% (relative to the bulk detector) at 50% net efficiency when applied to training data obtained from measurements of a 100 μCi 154 Eu source using a H3D M400i pixelated cadmium zinc telluride detector. These results compare well with, but do not outperform, a greedy algorithm that accumulates pixels in order of FWHM from lowest to highest used as a benchmark. In the future, this approach can be extended to include the detector energy and angular response. Finally, the model is applied to newly seen natural and enriched uranium spectra relevant for nuclear safeguards applications.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2025

Fragme∩t: An Open‐Source Framework for Multiscale Quantum Chemistry Based on Fragmentation

Fragment-based quantum chemistry offers a means to circumvent the nonlinear computational scaling of conventional electronic structure calculations, by partitioning a large calculation into smaller subsystems then considering the many-body interactions between them. Variants of this approach have been used to parameterize classical force fields and machine learning potentials, applications that benefit from interoperability between quantum chemistry codes. However, there is a dearth of software that provides interoperability yet is purpose-built to handle the combinatorial complexity of fragment-based calculations. To fill this void we introduce “Fragme∩t”, an open-source software application that provides a tool for community validation of fragment-based methods, a platform for developing new approximations, and a framework for analyzing many-body interactions. Fragme∩t includes algorithms for automatic fragment generation and structure modification, and for distance- and energy-based screening of the requisite subsystems. Checkpointing, database management, and parallelization are handled internally and results are archived in a portable database. Interfaces to various quantum chemistry engines are easy to write and exist already for Q-Chem, PySCF, xTB, Orca, CP2K, MRCC, Psi4, NWChem, GAMESS, and MOPAC. Applications reported here demonstrate parallel efficiencies around 96% on more than 1000 processors but also showcase that the code can handle large-scale protein fragmentation using only workstation hardware, all with a codebase that is designed to be usable by non-experts. Fragme∩t conforms to modern software engineering best practices and is built upon well established technologies including Python, SQLite, and Ray. The source code is available under the Apache 2.0 license.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving the fast-charging capability of NbWO-based Li-ion batteries

The discovery of Nb-W-O materials years ago marks the milestone of charging a lithium-ion battery in minutes. Nevertheless, for many applications, charging lithium-ion battery within one minute is urgently demanded, the bottleneck of which largely lies in the lack of fundamental understanding of Li + storage mechanisms in these materials. Herein, by visualizing Li + intercalated into representative Nb 16 W 5 O 55 , we find that the fast-charging nature of such material originates from an interesting rate-dependent lattice relaxation process associated with the Jahn-Teller effect. Furthermore, in situ electron microscopy further reveals a directional, [010]-preferred Li + transport mechanism in Nb 16 W 5 O 55 crystals being the “bottleneck” toward fast charging that deprives the entry of any desolvated Li + through the prevailing non-(010) surfaces. Hence, we propose a machine learning-assisted interface engineering strategy to swiftly collect desolvated Li + and relocate them to (010) surfaces for their fast intercalation. As a result, a capacity of ≈ 116 mAh g −1 (68.5% of the theoretical capacity) at 80 C (45 s) is achieved when coupled with a Li negative electrode.

batteries↗

DOE OSTI2026

Generalizing synthetic data-trained acoustic predictive models to real-world measurements

Acoustic Resonance Spectroscopy (ARS) is highly sensitive to structural properties such as material, geometry, and environmental conditions; as a consequence, it can noninvasively measure internal properties that are unobservable by most other methods. Because of its sensing capabilities and low implementation cost and complexity, ARS has potential as a paradigm shift in noninvasive sensing, characterization, and monitoring applications. However, extracting specific properties from ARS measurements, comprising the vibration spectrum of a test object, is challenging due to the sensitivity of the spectra to other structural changes not being measured, e.g. manufacturing tolerances, component coupling, environmental variation, etc. Neural Networks are promising tools for identifying trends in ARS measurements, but their training typically requires large datasets, which are often impractical to obtain for real-world systems. Synthetic data can be simulated efficiently, but discrepancies between synthetic and real-world data frequently lead to poor generalization when testing on the real-world data. We propose a novel ARS model training framework that enables networks trained exclusively on synthetic ARS data to generalize effectively to real-world measurements. Our approach leverages the Correlation Alignment (CORAL) technique to enforce the extraction of features common to both synthetic and real-world domains. As a case study, we demonstrate noninvasive ARS-based pressure measurements in sealed systems. Finite element method (FEM) simulations were used to generate synthetic training data across diverse vessel configurations and pressure conditions, and model performance was then tested on real-world measurements. We demonstrate that robust machine learning models for ARS can be developed without large real-world datasets, significantly broadening the applicability of ARS for noninvasive sensing. Moreover, the approach is extensible to other sensing modalities where synthetic data are abundant but real-world data are limited.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine Learning‐Guided Discovery of High‐Entropy Perovskite Oxide Electrocatalysts via Oxygen Vacancy Engineering

Abstract High‐entropy perovskite oxides (HEPOs) have recently emerged as multifunctional catalysts. However, the HEPOs’ structural and compositional complexity hinders the easy and accurate extrapolation of activity indicators, which are essential for establishing structure‐property correlations. Here, OxiGraphX, is introduced as a novel graph neural network (GNN) model designed to capture the complex relationships among structure, composition, and atomic chemical environments for accurate prediction of oxygen vacancy formation energies (OVFEs) in HEPOs. By integrating machine learning (ML), density functional theory (DFT), and experimental validation, this work demonstrates an efficient framework for rapidly and accurately screening HEPO electrocatalysts for oxygen evolution reaction (OER). The OxiGraphX predicts OVFEs with a precision exceeding existing data, enabling the identification of compositions of higher oxygen vacancy content (OVC) and, thus, higher catalytic activity. Furthermore, the model explores latent spaces that translate effectively into experimental domains, bridging computational predictions with real‐world applications. This approach accelerates the discovery of high‐performance HEPO catalysts while providing deeper insights into their catalytic mechanisms.

Chemistry↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

CLAIRE: Enabling Heterogeneous Communication Network Optimization for Robust and Resilient Operations

In this paper, we present the capabilities of the CLAIRE System which provides resilient communications for NASA in presence of interference and congestion for a heterogeneous multi-vendor network. CLAIRE increases mission science data return to improve resource efficiencies and ensures resilience in the unpredictable space environment for NASA missions and communication networks. CLAIRE provides technology / waveform agnostic cognitive control plane that is instantiated at the Application Layer (APP) so that it can ride on NASA’s HDTN bundle protocol or any other protocol stack that is used by the network. The cognitive control plane is instantiated using Heartbeats (HTBTs). CLAIRE is assisted by Wideband UHF-Ka Band RF Sensing that leverages advances in the Direct Digital Transceiver (DDTRX) technology. The Wideband RF Sensing is driven by statistical signal processing and machine learning algorithms. Interference is mitigated using Dynamic Spectrum Access (DSA). Finally, CLAIRE addresses congestion using spectrum aware packet forwarding algorithm. CLAIRE provides an extensible protocol that allows passing of RF spectrum situational awareness, cross-layer sensing, delay tolerant networking and dynamic spectrum access information that can help with network optimization. Cross-Layer Sensing (CLS) and CLAIRE Decision Engine (CDE) enable spectrum and delay aware packet forwarding and Dynamic Spectrum Access during cases of severe interference.

cognitive communications↗

DOE OSTI2024

A tutorial review of machine learning-based model predictive control methods

Abstract This tutorial review provides a comprehensive overview of machine learning (ML)-based model predictive control (MPC) methods, covering both theoretical and practical aspects. It provides a theoretical analysis of closed-loop stability based on the generalization error of ML models and addresses practical challenges such as data scarcity, data quality, the curse of dimensionality, model uncertainty, computational efficiency, and safety from both modeling and control perspectives. The application of these methods is demonstrated using a nonlinear chemical process example, with open-source code available on GitHub. The paper concludes with a discussion on future research directions in ML-based MPC.

Wu, Zhe [Department of Chemical and Biomolecular E↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predictive analytics of selections of russet potatoes

We explore the application of machine learning algorithms specifically to enhance the selection process of Russet potato (Solanum tuberosum L.) clones in breeding trials by predicting their suitability for advancement. This study addresses the challenge of efficiently identifying high-yield, disease-resistant, and climate-resilient potato varieties that meet processing industry standards. Leveraging manually collected data from trials in the state of Oregon, we investigate the potential of a wide variety of state-of-the-art binary classification models. The dataset includes 1086 clones, with data on 38 attributes recorded for each clone, focusing on yield, size, appearance, and frying characteristics, with several control varieties planted consistently across four Oregon regions from 2013 to 2021. We conduct a comprehensive analysis of the dataset that includes preprocessing, feature engineering, and imputation to address missing values. We focus on several key metrics such as accuracy, F1-score, and Matthews correlation coefficient (MCC) for model evaluation. The top-performing models, namely a feedforward neural network classifier (Neural Net), a histogram-based gradient boosting classifier (HGBC), and a support vector machine classifier (SVM), demonstrate consistent and significant results. To further validate our findings, we conducted a simulation study using the aims, data-generating mechanisms, estimands, methods, and performance measures (ADEMP) framework, simulating different data-generating scenarios to assess model robustness and performance through true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative distributions, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) and MCC. The simulation results highlight that non-linear models like SVM and HGBC consistently show higher AUC-ROC and MCC than logistic regression, thus outperforming the traditional linear model across various distributions, and emphasizing the importance of model selection and tuning in agricultural trials. Variable selection further enhances model performance and identifies influential features in predicting trial outcomes. The findings emphasize the potential of machine learning in streamlining the selection process for potato varieties, offering benefits such as increased efficiency, substantial cost savings, and judicious resource utilization. Our study contributes insights into precision agriculture and showcases the relevance of advanced technologies for informed decision-making in breeding programs.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparisons of Performance Metrics and Machine Learning Methods on an Entry Descent and Landing Database

This work focuses on evaluating machine learning methods and their applicability to the generation of an aerodynamic database, particularly for trajectory analysis of a capsule during entry, descent, and landing with a focus on uncertainty quantification. The source data to be used is the wind tunnel and computational data for the Integrated Design Assessment Team (IDAT) configuration of the Orion project, which has been publicly released. The methods used to generate the proposed databases are designed to naturally include a prediction interval, which will be evaluated both for their mean response as well as how well the prediction interval performs. These machine learning methods are compared to a traditionally generated database used by the Orion team as a baseline. It is found that while these machine learning methods perform well, the Orion database tends to still outperform them showing that engineering experience is still needed to make the best database possible. However, these methods still provide comparable results with significantly less effort.

Orion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transient Optimization for the Betterment of Turbine Electrified Energy Management

Gas turbine engine transients are associated with degraded compressor operability, which must be addressed by the engine control system and accounted for in the engine design. Failure to do so may result in events such as compressor stall/surge and combustor blow out. Transient operability concerns constrain the engine design and can result in sacrifices of efficiency and/or thrust responsiveness. The traditional approach to transient operability management is control logic that limits the fuel flow command. A companion paper presents a strategy for optimizing the transient fuel flow control logic taking into consideration transient operability and thrust responsiveness. The study covered here extends this idea to an electrified gas turbine engine that employs a power/energy management concept known as Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM). TEEM uses an electric power system interfaced with the engine (hence the term ‘electrified gas turbine engine’) to further improve transient operability and alleviate associated design constraints. There can be costs associated with implementing TEEM in terms of power and energy requirements that impact the size of the electrical power system. However, the results of this study show that through optimization of the transient limit logic, power and energy requirements needed to implement TEEM can be significantly reduced. Among the conclusions that can be drawn from the results of the illustrative application covered herein are: (1) there is a reduction in the electric machine power requirement to manage operability during accelerations by 200 to 400 hp, and (2) power transfer from the low pressure spool (LPS) to the high pressure spool (HPS) is the most effective option for improving operability during decelerations, followed by the options of only injecting power on the HPS or only extracting power from the LPS.

transient↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparisons of Performance Metrics and Machine Learning Methods on an Entry, Descent, and Landing Database

Orion↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Transient Optimization for the Betterment of Turbine Electrified Energy Management

transient↗

DOE OSTI2025

Integration of LIBS with Machine Learning for Real-Time Monitoring of Feedstock in H 2 Gasification Applications

This project, funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) – Office of Fossil Energy under Award Number DE-FE0032177, aimed to assess the feasibility of an integrated Laser-Induced Breakdown Spectroscopy (LIBS) system with advanced machine learning (ML) models for real-time characterization and potential control of hydrogen gasifiers running on waste materials as feedstocks. This was a multidisciplinary effort that encompassed the acquisition and standardized analysis of individual and blended feedstocks—comprising biomass, coal waste, and plastic waste, followed by the development of a dynamic LIBS bench system for material sample analysis and development of predictive ML models. Comprehensive laboratory testing enabled the creation of a robust elemental dataset that served as the foundation for ML model training. Techniques such as Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, Support Vector Regression, and Neural Networks were employed to predict key feedstock properties, including higher heating value (HHV), moisture content, thermal conductivity, and ash composition with high accuracy. The results were validated against experimental data and demonstrated strong potential for real-time application in gasifier control systems. The project concluded with a study on the integration of the LIBS+ML approach for gasifier control and a techno-economic analysis of the implementation of the approach into hydrogen (H 2 ) gasification systems. Dissemination of results was carried out at a DOE meeting. This work establishes a scalable framework for automated, in-line feedstock quality assessment, offering significant implications for process optimization and emissions reduction in hydrogen production.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗