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At least 163 records · Page 9

NMF-Based Anomaly Detection in CMS 2D Tracking Occupancy Histograms

The CMS experiment relies on Data Quality Monitoring (DQM) to ensure that recorded collision data are suitable for physics analysis. During LHC Run 3, each run contains many lumisections and tracking monitoring elements, making offline inspection challenging, especially for localized detector effects that may appear only for short periods of time. This poster presents an unsupervised machine-learning approach to identify anomalous lumisections in CMS tracking occupancy histograms using Non-Negative Matrix Factorization (NMF). The workflow uses offline CMS DQMIO tracking histograms retrieved with the CMS DIALS API and organized as two-dimensional occupancy maps for each lumisection. After selecting stable lumisections, the occupancy maps are normalized and arranged into a non-negative data matrix. The NMF model learns a compact set of basis patterns describing normal tracking occupancy. Each lumisection is then reconstructed from these learned components, and the reconstruction error is used as an anomaly score. Large residuals indicate occupancy patterns that deviate from normal detector behavior and are flagged for further inspection. This NMF-based approach provides a fast and interpretable way to flag lumisections whose tracking occupancy patterns differ from normal detector behavior. Preliminary studies show sensitivity to known tracking anomalies, and ongoing work is focused on validating the method across additional Run 3 Pixel and Strip detector issues.

Rodríguez Ramos, Iliomar [Puerto Rico U., Mayaguez↗

ProtoDUNE-VD for Beyond the Standard Model Searches: Initial Studies and Future Prospects

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long-baseline neutrino program designed to address fundamental questions in neutrino and astroparticle physics. ProtoDUNE, operating at the CERN Neutrino Platform, serves as a full-scale prototype for the DUNE Far Detector. In particular, the ProtoDUNE Vertical Drift (ProtoDUNE-VD) detector provides a powerful testbed for validating reconstruction and event selection techniques for future DUNE operations. In addition to detector R&D, ProtoDUNE enables a novel parasitic beam-dump search for beyond-the-Standard-Model (BSM) particles. However, it faces several challenges. Most notably, the ProtoDUNE-VD modules operate on the surface and are consequently exposed to an intense flux of cosmic rays, which requires a dedicated trigger. In addition, standard neutrinos are also produced in the T2 target area from the decay of unstable mesons, constituting a relevant background, which needs to be well understood and characterized a priori. We present the first studies based on 2025 data taken with a trigger designed to identify neutrino candidates at ProtoDUNE-VD. ProtoDUNE-VD’s high-resolution LArTPC imaging allows detailed reconstruction of decay and scattering signatures. This work demonstrates the complementarity of traditional tools such as Pandora and modern machine-learning approaches, providing key input for atmospheric neutrino and rare-event searches in the DUNE Vertical Drift program.

Bagdu, Halit [U. Iowa, Iowa City]↗

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Fermilab]↗

Deconstruction by C. thermocellum —from microbe mediated to dynamic redistribution of cellulosomes

Clostridium thermocellum is one of the most efficient microorganisms for the deconstruction of cellulosic biomass. To achieve this high level of cellulolytic activity, C. thermocellum uses large multienzyme complexes known as cellulosomes to break down complex polysaccharides, notably cellulose, found in plant cell walls. The attachment of bacterial cells to the nearby substrate via the cellulosome has been hypothesized to be the reason for this high efficiency. The region lying between the cell and the substrate has shown great variation and dynamics that are affected by the growth stage of cells and the substrate used for growth. Here, we used both super-resolution imaging and machine-learning approaches to study the distribution of C. thermocellum cellulosomes at different stages of growth. We show that C. thermocellum initially retains its cellulosomes primarily on the cell surface but then relocates large cellulosome clusters to the interface with biomass, therefore depleting its cell surface of cellulosomes. These results indicate dynamic redistribution of cellulosomes during growth, with a functional shift toward substrate-associated degradation later during growth on biomass.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Editorial: Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age

Editorial on the Research Topic Predicting near-earth space environment: new perspective and capabilities in the AI age The near-Earth space environment is not only an operational hazard for space missions, but also a scientific laboratory for advancing our understanding and prediction of space plasma populations. This Research Topic is organized around three interconnected themes: observational datasets, machine-learning (ML) model development, and the discovery of new physical insights through those models. Its primary goal is to highlight the emerging capabilities in space environment prediction that are enabled, or will be enabled, by integrating advanced techniques—including AI/ML methods—with long-term curated datasets.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Variance Preserving Spectral Subsampling

Generating statistically faithful short-duration gamma-ray spectra from a single long measurement is essential in nuclear safeguards, supporting tasks such as algorithm development and machine-learning applications, especially when list-mode data are unavailable. Existing subsampling methods often distort the statistical characteristics of genuine short-duration measurements, leading to biased or unreliable analytical outcomes and thereby undermining downstream tasks. In this work, we compare five subsampling approaches using a benchmark set of 156 genuine replicate spectra collected with a high-purity germanium detector. We evaluate each method with respect to run-to-run variance, channel-to-channel variance, and preservation of total counts (losslessness). Across a wide range of subsampling ratios, only binomial subsampling without replacement consistently reproduces the statistical properties of genuine short-duration spectra, maintaining proper dispersion even in sparse spectral regions and perfectly preserving total counts. These results provide a mathematically principled and practically validated framework for generating synthetically shortened spectra when true short-duration measurements are unavailable.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Synthesis of ARM User Facility Surface Rainfall Datasets to Construct a Best Estimate Value Added Product (PrecipBE)

Surface precipitation measurements are essential for Earth system model (ESM) evaluation and understanding cloud processes. An ever-growing need for robust, temporally evolving, and easy-to-use statistical datasets provides motivation for a baseline ground-based precipitation properties data product. The U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility operates an extensive suite of precipitation instruments with various sensitivities and operating mechanisms, which render the decision of which instrument to use based on one or more fixed thresholds challenging and prone to errors and bias. Using a long-term instrument inter-comparison from a unique per-precipitation event perspective, rather than instantaneous sample comparison, we demonstrate that ARM rainfall-measuring instruments are generally consistent with each other at the statistical level. Inter-instrument deviations at the single event level can be large, especially for specific rainfall event properties such as maximum precipitation rates. A machine-learning (ML) analysis using a random forest regressor indicates that in some cases, depending on instrument, local site climatology, and/or specific deployment configuration, certain atmospheric state variables influence the measured quantities in an unpredictable manner. Thus, a-priori weighting of different instruments does not necessarily lead to more accurate and less biased synthesis of instrument data. These results motivate the design of the ARM precipitation best-estimate (PrecipBE) value-added product, which incorporates all valid precipitation data while considering data quality and other instrument limitations. PrecipBE consists of time series and tabular statistics datasets in an easy-to-use and insightful per-precipitation event format. It provides a large set of precipitation event properties supplemented with ancillary data from ARM datasets that correspond to the detected precipitation events. We describe the PrecipBE algorithm and demonstrate its use via the examination of a single-day output as well as a long-term trend analysis of precipitation events at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site, covering more than 30 years of data. The trend analysis tentatively suggests a long-term temporal tendency for mainly shorter and less intense precipitation events at the SGP site, but a long-term increase in annual rainfall by more than 36 mm (5 %) per decade. This rainfall trend is catalyzed primarily by more extreme event properties of relatively rare, intense precipitation events, with event total and 1 min maximum precipitation rate at a 1 year timeframe increasing up to 5 mm and 9 mm h −1 (several percent) per decade, respectively. While the currently available PrecipBE datasets (at https://adc.arm.gov/discovery/, last access: 8 December 2025) cover rainfall from multiple ARM deployments up to March 2025, PrecipBE is planned to be expanded to include solid-phase precipitation and will soon become an operational product with a several-day lag from real-time. We invite the ARM user community to leverage this new product and welcome user feedback to further enhance the dataset.

Silber, Israel [Pacific Northwest National Laborat↗

Machine-learning-based estimates of global natural vegetated wetland methane emissions (2000–2025)

Wetlands are the largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), yet comprehensive global budgets are typically delayed by years, preventing a timely understanding of CH 4 sources, sinks, and trends. To reduce this delay, we present a model emulator-driven framework and accompanying workflow that enable timely, continuous emission updates using a machine-learning emulator to reconstruct spatially explicit monthly emission fields at 1° × 1° resolution. We apply this framework to a global dataset of natural vegetated wetland CH 4 emissions to extend the most recent Global Methane Budget (GMB; Saunois et al., 2025) record that covers the 2000–2020 emissions through 2025. In the test data (∼ 30 % of the total dataset), the emulator achieved a global R 2 of 0.65 ± 0.003 (mean ± 95 % CI, hereafter) and an RMSE of 5.49 ± 0.12×10 -3 Tg CH 4 yr −1 . The emulator is trained on 35 GMB model estimates, including 22 process-based models and 13 atmospheric inversions, paired with 10 ensemble realizations of 11 gridded climate predictor variables from atmospheric reanalyses. Our results show that the global mean predicted wetland CH 4 emissions for 2021–2025 (157.8 ± 2.4 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) are not significantly higher (∼ 0.05 Tg CH 4 yr −1 ) than the 2000–2020 baseline. However, this stability masks a significant hemispheric redistribution of emissions. We detect an increase in Northern Hemisphere (NH) emissions in 2021–2025, with mid- and high-latitudes increasing by 0.76 ± 0.07 and 0.35 ± 0.03 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively, while the tropics and Southern Hemisphere (SH) extratropics show offsetting negative trends (−0.95 ± 0.19 and -0.11 ± 0.02 Tg CH 4 yr −1 , respectively). The predicted emissions are able to capture the low emissions in 2023 in South America linked to El Niño-related drought, as reported by recent studies (Ciais et al., 2026; Quinn et al., 2025). Furthermore, we identify a distinct seasonal amplification of global emission trends that peaks in late boreal summer. This new modeled dataset and operational framework bridge the gap between the latest updated budgets and low-latency monitoring, providing a scalable capacity to frequently update global emission estimates and critical early warnings of regional wetland feedback loops. The data are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.18870108 (Li et al., 2026).

Li, Mengze [National University of Singapore (Sing↗

Xanthos-Lake Model Source Code

This repository contains the source code for Xanthos-Lake, a lake-modeling extension of the Xanthos framework that introduces a coupled lake component comprising the Xanthos-Lake Snow and Ice Model (xLSIM) and the Xanthos-Lake Water Balance Model (xLWBM). xLSIM is a basin-aware machine-learning model for lake snow, ice, and thermal conditions. It predicts monthly lake ice thickness, snow depth, snow-cover fraction, mixing-layer temperature, and lake ice fraction from meteorological forcing and lake surface-area information. It uses sequence-based deep-learning architectures, including Transformer and hybrid Long Short-Term Memory–Transformer (LSTM–Transformer) models, together with seasonal encoding, multi-lake learning, physical masking, and basin-level cryospheric and non-cryospheric classification. The training workflow uses Ray for scalable execution and includes optional Ray Tune hyperparameter optimization. Model predictions, observations, diagnostics, and feature-importance outputs are written in NetCDF. xLWBM is the water-balance component of the new lake framework. It simulates monthly lake storage, surface area, evaporation, inflow, outflow, and lake–groundwater exchange. It combines physical water-balance equations with calibrated bathymetric relationships, weir-based outlet flow, modified Penman open-water evaporation, groundwater head relaxation, Penman–Monteith snow and ice sublimation, and snow, ice, and thermal conditions supplied by xLSIM. The model calibrates lake parameters against satellite-derived surface-area data, using evaporation-based calibration where surface-area data are unavailable, and supports small, medium, and large lake classes. For large lakes, xLWBM is integrated with the managed-routing workflow so that lake storage and outflow interact directly with downstream river routing and reservoir operations. Together, xLSIM and xLWBM provide Xanthos with a coupled lake-modeling capability. xLSIM supplies the snow, ice, and thermal conditions that affect lake evaporation and snow- and ice-related water exchanges, while xLWBM translates those conditions into dynamic lake storage, surface area, evaporation, and discharge. In return, xLWBM supplies evolving lake surface area to xLSIM. This coupling enables Xanthos to represent lakes as active hydrologic components within basin-scale water-availability and routing simulations.

Machine Learning↗

EXERGETIC: De-Risking Next-Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via At-Scale Evaluation Using Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation

The DOE-GTO-funded project, award number 5.1.2.12, entitled "EXERGETIC - De-risking Next Generation Resilient Geothermal Hybrids via at-Scale Evaluation Using a Virtual Emulation Digital Twin Environment for Efficient Operation," advances the solution to these challenges by developing and validating a geothermal co-emulation environment implemented at the National Laboratory of the Rockies (NLR)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES) platform. This framework enables the de-risking of next-generation geothermal and geothermal hybrid systems through high-fidelity modeling, real-time digital emulation, advanced control strategies, and techno-economic assessment. The project focused on geothermal hybrid configurations that integrate geothermal power plants with concentrated solar power and underground thermal energy storage, enabling enhanced efficiency, flexibility, and grid support capabilities. The main goal of this project was the development of a geothermal digital co-emulation environment to demonstrate the technical and economic value of geothermal hybrid systems and their contribution to grid stability and flexibility. The EXERGETIC framework combined physics-based models, controls, and real assets at ARIES, including digital real-time simulators (DRTS), a 20-MW-scale controllable grid interface (CGI), and a 2-MW conventional generator. Detailed transient models were developed for the key subsystems of a hybrid geothermal plant, including parabolic trough solar collectors, reservoir thermal energy storage (RTES), and a binary Organic Rankine Cycle (ORC) power plant. The ORC model explicitly captured thermal inertia and off-design operation and integrated control strategies to dynamically respond to electric load profiles. The models were validated against published experimental and numerical studies, demonstrating strong agreement and confirming the accuracy and robustness of the modeling approach. The resulting digital twin represents geothermal-solar-storage systems at multiple scales (1 MW to 100 MW) and enables realistic emulation of grid-connected operation. The control architecture allows the geothermal resource to provide stable baseload generation, while solar and stored thermal energy supply flexible, dispatchable support during periods of high demand or variable grid conditions. A key contribution of the EXERGETIC project is the demonstration that geothermal hybrid systems can be designed to be active grid assets rather than passive baseload generators. Using the ARIES platform, the digital twin was evaluated under multiple grid scenarios, including load following, voltage support at the distribution level, and frequency response at the transmission level. Results show that hybrid geothermal systems can respond effectively to dynamic grid conditions, providing inertia-like behavior, primary frequency support, and voltage regulation through coordinated control. In addition to the performance and grid services capability analysis of geothermal and hybrid geothermal systems, the EXERGETIC project also focused on scalability and techno-economic analysis of geothermal hybrid plants. In particular, for the scalability analysis, machine-learning (ML)-based surrogate models were trained using data generated from the geothermal digital twin under different grid-connected scenarios and plant capacities. These ML models demonstrated strong interpolation and extrapolation capabilities across plant sizes, accurately reproducing both steady-state and transient responses with very low errors. Regarding the techno-economic analysis, plant performance results were integrated with cost models for hybrid geothermal systems, and the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) was used as the main economic metric to evaluate system performance across a range of system capacities, solar shares, solar multiples, and storage durations. Results indicate that economies of scale significantly reduce geothermal LCOE as plant capacity increases, with large-scale systems (25-100 MW) achieving substantially lower costs than small plants. Hybridization with solar thermal energy and storage further improves economic performance by increasing capacity utilization and enabling flexible dispatch. In addition, thermal storage plays a critical role in reducing LCOE by maximizing geothermal, solar, and stored energy resources. In summary, the results from this project demonstrate that geothermal hybrid systems represent a promising alternative for increasing the energy conversion efficiency of geothermal technologies, contributing to the preservation of geothermal resources, and supporting the transition of geothermal plants from traditional baseload resources into flexible, resilient, and cost-competitive energy conversion technologies.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Digitally-Engineered Impact Resistant Aerogel Composites for MMOD Protection (DIRAC-MP)

This project implemented a digital-engineering approach to optimize the impact absorption performance of polymer aerogels and aerogel-based composites for Micrometeoroids and Orbital Debris (MMOD) containment. We developed a curated materials database and a machine-learning framework to derive composition-response relationships, enabling predictive design and targeted material selection. In support of experimental validation, a split Hopkinson pressure bar (SHPB) test rig, specifically adapted for low-density aerogel materials, was designed and built in-house. This project accelerates the development of new aerogel formulations, producing candidate materials tailored for enhanced impact-absorption behavior.

Sadeq Malakooti↗

List of Commercial and Advanced Developmental Niobium-Based Alloys of the Space Age

This report compiles a list of commercial and developmental niobium-based alloys developed during the Space Age (late 1950s through mid-1970s) for extreme-temperature applications, including rocket engine thrust chambers, hypersonic re-entry thermal protection systems, and space fission reactor loops. Niobium (Nb) was widely pursued because it provided the lowest density (~8.6 g/cc) among the primary refractory metals, a high melting temperature (~2470°C), exceptional low-temperature ductility, good formability, and compatibility with liquid alkali metals. An evaluation of physical metallurgy mechanisms, focusing on solid-solution strengthening via heavy refractory solutes (W, Mo, Ta), dual-purpose reactive solutes (Hf, Zr, Ti), and dispersion strengthening using carbides, nitrides, and oxides is presented. Additionally, the report compares Western and Soviet Union metallurgical approaches, explaining how supply chain factors and manufacturing infrastructure influenced element selection, interstitial chemistry, and alloy identification/naming conventions. Cataloging these historical alloy chemical compositions serves as a foundational reference for modern alloy additive manufacturing, thermodynamic CALPHAD modeling, and machine-learning discovery pipelines for next-generation extreme-environment niobium-based alloys.

Physical Metallurgy↗

HDSense: An efficient method for ranking observable sensitivity

Identifying which observables most effectively constrain model parameters can be computationally prohibitive when considering full likelihoods of many correlated observables. This is especially important for, e.g., hadronization models, where high precision is required to interpret the results of collider experiments. We introduce the High-Dimensional Sensitivity (HDSense) score, a computationally efficient metric for ranking observable sets using only one-dimensional histograms. Derived by profiling over unknown correlations in the Fisher information framework, the score balances total information content against redundancy between observables. We apply HDSense to rank a set observables in terms of their constraining power with respect to five parameters of the Lund string model of hadronization implemented in Pythia using simulated leptonic collider events at the $Z$ pole. Validation against machine-learning--based full-likelihood approximations demonstrates that HDSense successfully identifies near-optimal observable subsets. The framework naturally handles data from multiple experiments with different acceptances and incorporates detector effects. While demonstrated on hadronization models, the methodology applies broadly to generic parameter estimation problems where correlations are unknown or difficult to model.

Assi, Benoît [Cincinnati U.] (ORCID:00000003092433↗

Machine Learning for Multipactor Susceptibility Prediction in Planar RF Gaps

Multipactor discharge is a nonlinear electron avalanche that limits the performance of high-power radio-frequency (RF) and vacuum electronic devices. Predicting multipactor susceptibility traditionally relies on Monte Carlo or particle-in-cell (PIC) simulations, which become computationally expensive for large parametric studies. In this work, we present a supervised machine-learning (ML) framework for prediction of multipactor susceptibility in a two-surface planar geometry. The models are trained using high-fidelity PIC simulation generated susceptibility data and learn the relationship between operational parameters, geometry, and material-dependent secondary electron emission properties. The proposed approach enables rapid reconstruction of susceptibility charts while preserving the physical structure of multipactor growth regions.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Learning the generating functional for variance reduction in lattice QCD

The generating functional in quantum field theory provides the natural framework for constructing correlation functions as derivatives with respect to source operators. We present a methodology that leverages machine-learned normalizing flows to reduce the variance of arbitrary $N$-point correlation functions of bosonic operators in lattice gauge field theory calculations by encoding a representation of the generating functional. We show that it is possible to systematically approach noiseless estimators of correlation functions in this framework. We demonstrate this methodology with applications to calculations of glueball correlation functions and Wilson loops in Quantum Chromodynamics and Yang-Mills theory. The results show up to three orders of magnitude variance reduction.

Abbott, Ryan [Columbia U.] (ORCID:0000000258778005↗

CaloTrilogy: Toward a Breakthrough in One-Step, End-to-End, Physics-Guided Shower Generation for Modern Calorimeters

High-precision calorimeter simulation at current and future colliders imposes rapidly growing computational demands, motivating the development of machine-learning surrogates for traditional Monte Carlo tools such as Geant4. Flow matching and diffusion-based generative models have become leading approaches for high-dimensional fast simulation because of their sample quality, but typically require ${\cal O}(100)$ function evaluations at inference and often rely on auxiliary networks to constrain global observables, compromising streamlined end-to-end generation. We introduce a unified framework that improves the balance between speed, shower quality, and physics fidelity. The method combines: (i) an average velocity field integrator that enables sampling in one or a few evaluations; (ii) a learned generative prior in shower space, constructed from data rather than random noise; and (iii) physics-guided loss terms that impose inductive biases on key observables during training. These elements are training time regularizers, preserving end-to-end inference with no additional cost. With only one or a few evaluation steps, the model achieves shower quality competitive with state-of-the-art flow and diffusion approaches, tested on several public high granularity calorimeter datasets. The results demonstrate inter-layer shower structure consistent with the underlying physics, providing a strong candidate for future fast simulation workflows.

Jiang, Cheng [Edinburgh U.]↗

Unveiling Hidden Lyman Alpha Emitters in the DESI DR1 Data

We present an automatic method based on machine-learning convolutional neural network (CNN) architecture to detect Lyman alpha emitters (LAE) hidden in the Data Release 1 spectroscopic dataset of the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI). Those LAEs mostly have incorrect redshift estimations because the current DESI pipeline is not designed to detect and measure the redshifts of galaxies at $z>2$. To uncover those sources, we first visually inspect thousands of DESI spectra and construct a sample, consisting of both LAEs and non-LAEs, for training and testing the CNN-based model to (1) detect LAEs in DESI spectra and (2) determine their Ly$α$ redshifts. The final model yields $95.2\%$ purity and $95.9\%$ completeness for detecting LAEs. We apply this model to approximately $2\times10^{6}$ spectra of sources targeted as emission-line galaxies and detect 19,685 LAEs from $z\sim2$ to $3.5$ within 12 minutes with a single GPU, illustrating the high efficiency of this model for identifying LAEs. The detected LAEs are mostly at the bright end of the luminosity function with Ly$α$ luminosity $L_{\rm Lyα} \gtrsim 10^{43}$ erg/s. The high signal-to-noise composite spectrum of the detected LAEs further shows various spectral features, including P-Cygni profiles of metal lines and MgII emission lines, possible indicators of Lyman continuum escape fraction, revealing the rich astrophysical information in this LAE sample. Finally, this sample can be used to train and validate the pipelines for redshift determination of LAEs for the preparation of the DESI-II survey.

Chan, Jui-Kuan [Taiwan, Natl. Taiwan U.] (ORCID:00↗

Virtual Growth of SRF Materials: A Machine Learning Approach to Predict the Crystalline Structural Ordering in Nb Surface Oxides

Niobium's native surface oxide affects SRF cavity and superconducting qubit performance, motivating interest in controlling its crystalline structure. We combine a literature-derived machine-learning analysis with temperature-dependent XRD to study crystalline ordering in Nb2O5. Random Forest models, trained on 74 processing conditions from 17 papers and validated by leave-one-group-out cross-validation, predicted broad crystallinity outcomes well (balanced accuracy 0.809), but struggled with specific polymorph identity (0.577). Annealing temperature was the dominant predictor across all targets; oxygen partial pressure showed negligible importance, reflecting narrow literature coverage rather than physical irrelevance. Temperature-dependent XRD on anodized and H2O2-treated Niobium showed structural evolution consistent with the machine learning predictions. Our model and overall approach provide a data-driven framework for identifying and optimizing conditions that promote crystallization in initially amorphous oxides. This framework can guide the selection of growth and post-annealing conditions for Nb surfaces by narrowing the experimental parameter space, thereby reducing trial-and-error efforts in developing oxide structures relevant to SRF applications.

Tilkin, Anthony [Unlisted, US, IL; Fermilab]↗