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At least 163 records · Page 9

Using Remotely Sensed Data and Watershed and Hydrodynamic Models to Evaluate the Effects of Land Cover Land Use Change on Aquatic Ecosystems in Mobile Bay, AL

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land cover land use (LCLU) change in the two counties surrounding Mobile Bay (Mobile and Baldwin) on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in the Mobile Bay estuary. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for LCLU scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Remotely sensed Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 LCLU scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the estuary. These results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid throughout Mobile Bay and adjacent estuaries. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to LCLU driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs. Data products and results are being integrated into NOAA s EcoWatch and Gulf of Mexico Data Atlas online systems for dissemination to coastal resource managers and stakeholders. Objective 1: Develop and utilize Land Use scenarios for Mobile and Baldwin Counties, AL as input to models to predict the affects on water properties (temperature,salinity,)for Mobile Bay through 2030. Objective 2: Evaluate the impact of land use change on seagrasses and SAV in Mobile Bay. Hypothesis: Urbanization will significantly increase surface flows and impact salinity and temperature variables that effect seagrasses and SAVs.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Evaluating the Impact of Land Use Change on Submerged Aquatic Vegetation Stressors in Mobile Bay

Alabama coastal systems have been subjected to increasing pressure from a variety of activities including urban and rural development, shoreline modifications, industrial activities, and dredging of shipping and navigation channels. The impacts on coastal ecosystems are often observed through the use of indicator species. One such indicator species for aquatic ecosystem health is submerged aquatic vegetation (SAV). Watershed and hydrodynamic modeling has been performed to evaluate the impact of land use change in Mobile and Baldwin counties on SAV stressors and controlling factors (temperature, salinity, and sediment) in Mobile Bay. Watershed modeling using the Loading Simulation Package in C++ (LSPC) was performed for all watersheds contiguous to Mobile Bay for land use scenarios in 1948, 1992, 2001, and 2030. Landsat-derived National Land Cover Data (NLCD) were used in the 1992 and 2001 simulations after having been reclassified to a common classification scheme. The Prescott Spatial Growth Model was used to project the 2030 land use scenario based on current trends. The LSPC model simulations provided output on changes in flow, temperature, and sediment for 22 discharge points into the Bay. Theses results were inputted in the Environmental Fluid Dynamics Computer Code (EFDC) hydrodynamic model to generate data on changes in temperature, salinity, and sediment on a grid with four vertical profiles throughout Mobile Bay. The changes in the aquatic ecosystem were used to perform an ecological analysis to evaluate the impact on SAV habitat suitability. This is the key product benefiting the Mobile Bay coastal environmental managers that integrates the influences of temperature, salinity, and sediment due to land use driven flow changes with the restoration potential of SAVs.

Al-Hamdan, Mohammad↗

Validation of the Community Land Model Version 5 over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) using in-situ and remote sensing datasets

The Community Land Model (CLM) is an effective tool to simulate the biophysical and biogeochemical processes and their interactions with the atmosphere. Although CLM Version 5 (CLM5) constitutes various updates in these processes, its performance in simulating energy, water and carbon cycles over the Contiguous United States (CONUS) at scales which land surface changes and hydrometeorological and hydroclimatological applications are more locally relevant is yet to be assessed. In this study, we conducted three simulations at 0.125? during 1979-2018 over the CONUS using different configurations of CLM, namely CLM5-biogeochemistry (CLM5BGC), CLM4.5BGC, and CLM5-satellite phenology (CLM5SP). We validated and compared their simulations against multiple remote-sensed and in-situ datasets. Overall, the parametric and structural updates (e.g., carbon cost for nitrogen uptake, variable soil thickness, dry surface layer) in CLM5 improve its ability in capturing terrestrial biogeochemical dynamics. The low evapotranspiration in CLM5BGC is associated with biases in simulating vegetation phenological characteristics rather than soil water limitations. The mismatch between CLM5BGC-simulated peak leaf area index and reference data can be attributed to CLM5BGC's inability in simulating phenology of trees and grasses. The differences between CLM-simulated irrigation and reference estimates can be attributed to differences between processes represented in models and in reality, and uncertainties in input and validation datasets. Evaluation against observations at small catchments suggest that hydrologic parameters needed to be calibrated to improve simulations of runoff, especially subsurface runoff. Additional efforts are needed to incorporate spatially-distributed plant phenology and physiology parameters and regional-specific agricultural management practices (e.g., planting, harvest).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Control Valve Trajectories for SOFC Hybrid System Startup

Control and management of cathode airflow in a solid oxide fuel cell gas turbine hybrid power system was analyzed using the Hybrid Performance (HyPer) hardware simulation at the National Energy Technology (NETL), U.S. Department of Energy. This work delves into previously unexplored operating practices for HyPer, via simultaneous manipulation of bypass valves and the electric load on the generator. The work is preparatory to the development of a Multi-Input, Multi-Output (MIMO) controller for HyPer. A factorial design of experiments was conducted to acquire data for 81 different combinations of the manipulated variables, which consisted of three air flow control valves and the electric load on the turbine generator. From this data the response surface for the cathode airflow with respect to bypass valve positions was analyzed. Of particular interest is the control of airflow through the cathode during system startup and during large load swings. This paper presents an algorithm for controlling air mass flow through the cathode based on a modification of the steepest ascent method.

30 DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION↗

River Dissolved Oxygen Prediction Using Machine Learning Models and Wireless Sensor Measurements

Simultaneous flooding&heat and droughts&heat events can potentially destabilize hydro-meteorological conditions to deteriorate the water quality of Neches River. Machine learning (ML) models utilizing wireless sensor measurements have been applied to predict water quality and optimize various water management strategies. This study aims to develop ML models to predict dissolved oxygen (DO) prediction under various hydro-meteorological conditions and enhance water management decision-making. Wireless sensor measurements of DO, water temperature, sample depth, conductivity, turbidity, and pH, along with discharge from the United States Geological Survey stations, are collected for model inputs at the Pine Island Bayou C749 station (PIB-C749) and Neches River Saltwater Barrier (SWB). Multilayer perceptron neural networks, recurrent neural networks, long short-term memory (LSTM), and bidirectional LSTM (BiLSTM) with and without attention mechanism (AT) are tested to determine the best model, which is applied the rolling forecast method to predict 14-day DO. Traditional and recurrent transfer learning (TL and RTL) methods are adopted to overcome insufficient data at the SWB. The input feature importance analysis using the integrated gradients (IG) algorithm is applied to determine dominant inputs. The results show LSTM-based models are capable handling long sequential data. AT-BiLSTM and RTL-LSTM demonstrate the best performance at the PIB-C749 (RMSE=0.054) and the SWB (RMSE=0.028), respectively. TL and RTL methods significantly improve model performance at the SWB. DO, temperature, and pH show higher importance, consistent with hydrodynamics and water chemistry. Both best models are applied to predict 14-day DO and demonstrate reasonable performance for decision-making. Hydro-meteorological conditions of 2017 flood and 2012 drought events are simulated and reveal that possible hypoxia occurs after flooding due to increasing temperature and turbidity, and DO concentration decreases significantly under heat and drought conditions. In conclusion, LSTM-based models utilizing wireless sensor data can be a timely and effective approach to make appropriate decisions on water resource management.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Large scale centrifuge test of a geomembrane-lined landfill subject to waste settlement and seismic loading

Highlights: • A large centrifuge model of a geomembrane-lined landfill was seismically loaded. • The scaled peak acceleration of the strongest input motion was 0.6 g. • Laboratory testing was conducted to obtain properties of the model materials. • Collected data included liner strains due to downdrag and seismic loading. • Results show that settlement and seismic loading can potentially damage geomembranes. • Results can be used to validate numerical models for geomembrane performance. •The laboratory and centrifuge testing data is publicly available. - Abstract: A large scale centrifuge test of a geomembrane-lined landfill subject to waste settlement and seismic loading was conducted to help validate a numerical model for performance based design of geomembrane liner systems. The test was conducted using the 240 g-ton centrifuge at the University of California at Davis under the U.S. National Science Foundation Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation Research (NEESR) program. A 0.05 mm thin film membrane was used to model the liner. The waste was modeled using a peat-sand mixture. The side slope membrane was underlain by lubricated low density polyethylene to maximize the difference between the interface shear strength on the top and bottom of the geomembrane and the induced tension in it. Instrumentation included thin film strain gages to monitor geomembrane strains and accelerometers to monitor seismic excitation. The model was subjected to an input design motion intended to simulate strong ground motion from the 1994 Hyogo-ken Nanbu earthquake. Results indicate that downdrag waste settlement and seismic loading together, and possibly each phenomenon individually, can induce potentially damaging tensile strains in geomembrane liners. The data collected from this test is publically available and can be used to validate numerical models for the performance of geomembrane liner systems.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

A multiprocessing architecture for real-time monitoring

A multiprocessing architecture for performing real time monitoring and analysis using knowledge-based problem solving techniques is discussed. To handle asynchronous inputs and perform in real time, the system consists of three or more separate processes which run concurrently on one or more processors and communicate via a message passing scheme. The Data Management Process gathers, compresses, scales and sends the incoming telemetry data to other tasks. The Inference Process consists of a proprietary high performance inference engine that runs at 1000 rules per second using telemetry data to perform real time analysis on the state and health of the Space Telescope. The multiprocessing architecture has been interfaced to a simulator and is able to process the incoming telemetry in real time.

Laffey, Thomas J.↗

Uncertainty Quantification of Calculated Temperatures for the AGR 3/4 Experiment

A series of Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR) irradiation experiments are being conducted within the Advanced Reactor Technology (ART) Fuel Development and Qualification Program. The main objectives of the fuel experimental campaign are to provide the necessary data on fuel performance to support fuel process development, qualify a fuel design and fabrication process for normal operation and accident conditions, and support development and validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes (PLN 3636, “Technical Program Plan for INL Advanced Reactor Technologies Technology Development Office/Advanced Gas Reactor Fuel Development and Qualification Program”). The AGR 3/4 test was inserted in the Northeast Flux Trap position in the Advanced Test Reactor (ATR) core at Idaho National Laboratory (INL) in December 2011 and successfully completed irradiation in mid-April 2014, resulting in irradiation of the tristructural isotropic (TRISO) fuel for 369.1 effective full-power days (EFPDs) during approximately 2.4 calendar years. The AGR 3/4 data, including the irradiation data and calculated results, were qualified and stored in the Nuclear Data Management and Analysis System (NDMAS). To support the U.S. TRISO fuel performance assessment and to provide data for validation of fuel performance and fission product transport models and codes, the daily as run thermal analysis has been performed separately on each of twelve AGR 3/4 capsules for the entire irradiation as discussed in ECAR-2807, “AGR 3/4 Daily As Run Thermal Analyses”. The ABAQUS code’s finite element-based thermal model predicts the daily average volume average (VA) fuel temperature (FT), peak FT, and graphite matrix, sleeve, and sink temperature in each capsule. The JMOCUP simulation codes were also created to perform depletion calculations for the AGR 3/4 experiment (ECAR-2753, “JMOCUP As-Run Daily Physics Depletion Calculation for the AGR 3/4 TRISO Particle Experiment in ATR Northeast Flux Trap”). This depletion analysis provides fast fluence and fission heat rate data for all components (fuel compacts, graphite rings, stainless steel retainer, etc.), which are used as inputs for the thermal analysis codes. The graphite temperatures from thermocouples (TCs) in each capsule were used to calibrate these thermal analysis codes. However, given the high rate of TC failure under the harsh irradiation and thermal conditions in the AGR capsules, the thermal analysis results are very useful in aiding TC data qualification, increasing the confidence in delineating failures of the measuring instruments (TCs) from physical mechanisms that may have shifted the system thermal response.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Evaluating the effectiveness of program data features for guiding memory management

Recent trends have led to the adoption of larger and more complex memory systems, often with multiple tiers of memory performance within the same platform. To utilize complex memory systems efficiently, current data management strategies must be altered to map usage demands to the underlying hardware. Applications, as the generators of memory accesses, are well-suited to guide this process, but building and maintaining separate source code versions for different memory systems is not feasible in most cases. One potential solution is to employ automated program profiling and analysis to facilitate the production of application-based guidance. By attaching memory usage information to static or lightweight program features, compilers and runtime systems can generate fine-grained guidance without additional efforts from users or developers. Recent works have employed this approach with some success, but it is not clear which program features are most useful for guiding data management.This work evaluates the effectiveness of using different program data features to predict memory usage and guide memory management. It employs a custom set of simulation tools, based in the Intel® Pin framework, to collect and analyze the usage characteristics of application data associated with common program data features, such as allocation sites, types, and context. The results show that even relatively simple features, such as object size, are useful for selecting data with similar usage properties, but finer-grained features, such as the instructions that access a particular object, are often much more effective. Additionally, this work evaluates the performance of using different data features and different program inputs to guide data placement on a heterogeneous memory platform with a limited amount of high performance memory.

Effler, T. Chad↗

Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

Alacron, Vladimir J.↗

Assimilation of Sentinel 1 and SMAP – Based Satellite Soil Moisture Retrievals into SWAT Hydrological Model: the Impact of Satellite Revisit Time and Product Spatial Resolution on Flood Simulations in Small Basins

In runoff generation process, soil moisture plays an important role as it controls the magnitude of the flood events to the rainfall inputs. In this study, we investigated the ability of a new era of satellite soil moisture retrievals to improve the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) daily discharge simulations via soil moisture data assimilation for two small (< 500 km2) and hydrologically different catchments located in Central Italy. We ingested 1) the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Enhanced L3 Radiometer Global Daily 9 km EASE-Grid soil moisture, 2) the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) H113 soil moisture product released within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) which has a nearly daily temporal resolution and sampling of 12.5 km, and 3) a fused ASCAT/Sentinel-1 (S1) satellite soil moisture product named SCATSAR-SWI with temporal and spatial sampling of 1 day and 1 km, respectively into SWAT hydrological model via Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Different configurations were tested with the aim of exploring the effect of the hydrological regime, the land use conditions, the spatial sampling and the revisit time of the products (which controls the amount of available data to be potentially ingested). Results show a general improvement of SWAT discharge simulations for all products in terms of error and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index. In particular, we found a relatively good behavior of both the active and the passive products in terms of low flows improvement especially for the catchment characterized by a higher baseflow component. The benefit of the higher spatial resolution of SCATSAR obtained via S1 over ASCAT was small likely due to very challenging areas for S1 retrieval. Eventually, better performances were obtained for the passive product in the more forested catchment. With the aim of exploring the benefit of having more frequent satellite soil moisture observations to be ingested, we tested the performance of the ASCAT product with a reduced temporal sampling obtained by temporally matching ASCAT observations to that of SMAP. The results show a significant reduction of the performance of ASCAT, suggesting that the correction frequency (due to the higher number of observations available) for small catchments is an important aspect for improving flood forecasting as it helps to adjust more frequently the soil moisture pre-storm conditions.

Small basins↗

Assimilation of Sentinel 1 and SMAP–based satellite soil moisture retrievals into SWAT hydrological model: the impact of satellite revisit time and product spatial resolution on flood simulations in small basins

In runoff generation process, soil moisture plays an important role as it controls the magnitude of the flood events in response to the rainfall inputs. In this study, we investigated the ability of a new era of satellite soil moisture retrievals to improve the Soil & Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) daily discharge simulations via soil moisture data assimilation for two small (< 500 km2) and hydrologically different catchments located in Central Italy. We ingested 1) the Soil Moisture Active and Passive (SMAP) Enhanced L3 Radiometer Global Daily 9 km EASE-Grid soil moisture, 2) the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) H113 soil moisture product released within the EUMETSAT Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (HSAF) which has a nearly daily temporal resolution and sampling of 12.5 km, and 3) a fused ASCAT/Sentinel-1 (S1) satellite soil moisture product named SCATSAR-SWI with temporal and spatial sampling of 1 day and 1 km, respectively into SWAT hydrological model via the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF). Different configurations were tested with the aim of exploring the effect of the hydrological regime, the land use conditions, the spatial sampling and the revisit time of the products (which controls the amount of available data to be potentially ingested). Results show a general improvement of SWAT discharge simulations for all products in terms of error and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency index. In particular, we found a relatively good behavior of both the active and the passive products in terms of low flows improvement especially for the catchment characterized by a higher baseflow component. The benefit of the higher spatial resolution of SCATSAR-SWI obtained via S1 over ASCAT was small, likely due to very challenging areas for the S1 retrieval. Eventually, better performances were obtained for the passive product in the more forested catchment. With the aim of exploring the benefit of having more frequent satellite soil moisture observations to be ingested, we tested the performance of the ASCAT product with a reduced temporal sampling obtained by temporally matching ASCAT observations to that of SMAP. The results show a significant reduction of the performance of ASCAT, suggesting that the correction frequency (due to the higher number of observations available) for small catchments is an important aspect for improving flood forecasting as it helps to adjust more frequently the pre-storm soil moisture conditions.

Shima Azimi↗

Active Interrogation using Photofission Technique for Nuclear Materials Control and Accountability

Innovative systems with increased sensitivity and resolution are in great demand to detect diversion and to prevent misuse in support of nuclear materials management for the U.S. fuel cycle. Nuclear fission is the most important multiplicative process involved in non-destructive active interrogation. This process produces the most easily recognizable signature for nuclear materials. In addition to thermal or high-energy neutrons, high-energy gamma rays can also excite a nucleus and cause fission through a process known as photofission. Electron linear accelerators (linacs) are widely used as the interrogating photon sources for inspection methods involving photofission technique. After photofission reactions, prompt signals are much stronger than the delayed signals, but it is difficult to quantify them in practical measurements. Delayed signals are easily distinguishable from the interrogating radiation. Linac-based, advanced inspection techniques utilizing the delayed signals after photofission have been extensively studied for homeland security applications. Previous research also showed that a unique delayed gamma ray energy spectrum exists for each fissionable isotope. In this work, high-energy delayed γ-rays were demonstrated to be signatures for detection, identification, and quantification of special nuclear materials. Such γ-rays were measured in between linac pulses using independent data acquisition systems. A list-mode system was developed to measure low-energy delayed γ-rays after irradiation. Photofission product yields of 238 U and 239 Pu were determined based on the measured delayed γ-ray spectra. The differential yields of delayed γ-rays were also proven to be able to discriminate nuclear from non-nuclear materials. The measurement outcomes were compared with Monte Carlo simulation results. It was demonstrated that the current available codes have capabilities and limitations in the simulation of photofission process. A two-fold approach was used to address the high-rate challenge in used nuclear fuel assay based on photofission technique. First, a standard HPGe preamplifier was modified to improve its capabilities in high-rate pulsed photofission environment. Second, advanced pulse processing algorithms were shown to greatly improve throughput rate without large sacrifice in energy resolution at ultra-high input count rate. Two customized gamma spectroscopy systems were also developed in real-time on FPGAs. They were shown to have promising performance matching available commercial units.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS): An iRODS-Based, Cloud-Enabled Decision Support System for Invasive Species Habitat Suitability Modeling

The Invasive Species Forecasting System (ISFS) is an online decision support system that allows users to load point occurrence field sample data for a plant species of interest and quickly generate habitat suitability maps for geographic regions of interest, such as a national park, monument, forest, or refuge. Target customers for ISFS are natural resource managers and decision makers who have a need for scientifically valid, model- based predictions of the habitat suitability of plant species of management concern. In a joint project involving NASA and the Maryland Department of Natural Resources, ISFS has been used to model the potential distribution of Wavyleaf Basketgrass in Maryland's Chesapeake Bay Watershed. Maximum entropy techniques are used to generate predictive maps using predictor datasets derived from remotely sensed data and climate simulation outputs. The workflow to run a model is implemented in an iRODS microservice using a custom ISFS file driver that clips and re-projects data to geographic regions of interest, then shells out to perform MaxEnt processing on the input data. When the model completes, all output files and maps from the model run are registered in iRODS and made accessible to the user. The ISFS user interface is a web browser that uses the iRODS PHP client to interact with the ISFS/iRODS- server. ISFS is designed to reside in a VMware virtual machine running SLES 11 and iRODS 3.0. The ISFS virtual machine is hosted in a VMware vSphere private cloud infrastructure to deliver the online service.

Gill, Roger↗

DABAM: An open-source database of X-ray mirrors metrology

An open-source database containing metrology data for X-ray mirrors is presented. It makes available metrology data (mirror heights and slopes profiles) that can be used with simulation tools for calculating the effects of optical surface errors in the performances of an optical instrument, such as a synchrotron beamline. A typical case is the degradation of the intensity profile at the focal position in a beamline due to mirror surface errors. This database for metrology (DABAM) aims to provide to the users of simulation tools the data of real mirrors. The data included in the database are described in this paper, with details of how the mirror parameters are stored. An accompanying software is provided to allow simple access and processing of these data, calculate the most usual statistical parameters, and also include the option of creating input files for most used simulation codes. In conclusion, some optics simulations are presented and discussed to illustrate the real use of the profiles from the database.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

Defining Modeling and Analysis Complexity Needs for Remediation - 18425

Many subsurface remedy decisions rely on model predictions or other types of data analyses to support site characterization and remedy selection, design, implementation, performance assessment, and closure. Thus, determining the appropriate level of complexity for modeling and data analysis is important to facilitate subsurface remedy decisions. Multiple factors are important in selecting the appropriate level of complexity in modeling and data analysis. For instance, the type and number of inputs required typically increases with increased complexity of analysis, and the ability to obtain or verify those inputs needs to be considered. The approach needs to establish the relationship between parameters or processes and contaminant transport and the detail of the description needed to meet the analysis objectives. Assessing the modeling complexity associated with the appropriate level of detail can be facilitated by considering complexity of the 1) modeling approach, 2) description of process, and 3) description of heterogeneity. As demonstrated by case studies, using a framework to guide determination of modeling and analysis complexity facilitates selection of the appropriate approach for the site situation. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Advancing stream temperature prediction with a generalizable large-sample framework across CONUS river reaches

Accurately predicting stream temperature in ungauged basins remains a critical challenge for water resource management, thermoelectric power plant cooling, and ecosystem conservation. Large-sample machine learning models trained on hundreds of well-monitored river basins have shown remarkable performance; however, such models have yet to be developed solely using forcing data that can be readily extracted to simulate stream temperatures anywhere in the contiguous United States (CONUS). In this study, we present a scalable, large-sample deep learning framework using Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to simulate daily stream temperatures in ungauged basins across the CONUS. The framework leverages both modeled reanalysis of meteorological and streamflow inputs as well as static attributes available for all 2.7 million CONUS river reaches in the National Hydrography Dataset Plus (NHDPlusV2). By generating dynamical inputs from predefined thermally relevant upstream contributing areas, rather than the entire upstream basin, the model also offers improvements in very large basins where full-basin averaging can dilute the most important influences on stream temperature. Evaluated across 300 basins, the model achieves a median Mean Absolute Error (MAE) of 1.1 °C and a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.95 on temporally and spatially distinct test folds—comparable to models trained exclusively using meteorological and streamflow observational data. The flexible, high-performing framework generalizes to any unmonitored river reach without significant regulation or unnatural thermal input immediately upstream, substantially expanding predictive capabilities in data-scarce regions.

Hydrology↗

Fast-Time Simulation for Evaluating the Impact of Estimated Flight Ready Time Uncertainty on Surface Metering

NASA has been developing and demonstrating new concepts and technologies for Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface (IADS) traffic management capabilities under the Airspace Technology Demonstration 2 (ATD-2) project. One of the IADS capabilities in the ATD-2 project is surface metering enabled by a tactical surface scheduler to provide controllers with the pushback advisories for departures at gates. The tactical surface scheduler uses the estimated flight ready times provided by airlines, called Earliest Off-Block Times (EOBTs), as input to calculate the target off-block times for pushback advisories. However, the EOBTs are often inaccurate and deviate from the actual flight ready times, which may reduce the benefits of surface metering. In this paper, a linear regression model is developed to model the EOBT uncertainty distribution over time based on actual EOBT data collected at Charlotte airport. This EOBT model is integrated with a tactical surface scheduler and a fast-time simulation tool. To evaluate the impact of the EOBT accuracy on airport surface operations, fast-time simulations are implemented for selected traffic scenarios under different levels of modelled EOBT accuracy. The simulation results show that the EOBT uncertainty affects several performance metrics related to the surface metering, such as gate hold, taxi time reduction, and target takeoff time predictability, which in turn influences ATD-2's scheduler performance.

tactical surface scheduler↗