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At least 163 records · Page 9

A hierarchy of global ocean models coupled to CESM1

We develop a hierarchy of simplified ocean models for coupled ocean, atmosphere, and sea ice climate simulations using the Community Earth System Model version 1 (CESM1). The hierarchy has four members: a slab ocean model, a mixed-layer model (MLM) with entrainment and detrainment, an Ekman MLM, and an ocean general circulation model (OGCM). Flux corrections of heat and salt are applied to the simplified models ensuring that all hierarchy members have the same climatology. We diagnose the needed flux corrections from auxiliary simulations in which we restore the temperature and salinity to the daily climatology obtained from a target CESM1 simulation. The resulting three-dimensional corrections contain the interannual variability fluxes that maintain the correct vertical gradients of temperature and salinity in the tropics. We find that the inclusion of mixed-layer entrainment and Ekman flow produces sea surface temperature and surface air temperature fields whose means and variances are progressively more similar to those produced by the target CESM1 simulation. We illustrate the application of the hierarchy to the problem of understanding the response of the climate system to the loss of Arctic sea ice. We find that the shifts in the positions of the mid-latitude westerly jet and of the Inter-tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) in response to sea-ice loss depend critically on upper ocean processes. Specifically, heat uptake associated with the mixed-layer entrainment influences the shift in the westerly jet and ITCZ. Moreover, the shift of ITCZ is sensitive to the form of Ekman flow parameterization.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Investigating tectonic and bathymetric features of the Indian Ocean using MAGSAT magnetic anomaly data

MAGSAT Investigator-B tapes were preprocessed by (1) removing all data points with obvious erroneous values and location errors; (2) removing smaller spikes (typically 15 nT or more), and deleting data tracks with fewer than 20 points; and (3) removing a linear trend from each track. The remaining data were recorded on tape for use by the equivalent source mapping (ESMAP) program which uses a least squares algorithm to fit the magnetization parameter of the grid of equivalent source dipoles in the crust to satellite data acquired at different times and locations. ESMAP was implemented on the TASC computing system and modified to read preprocessed MAGSAT tapes and interface with TASC plotting software. Some verification of the software was accomplished. Gridded 1-degree mean values of gravity anomaly and sea surface undulation computed from SEASAT radar altimeter were obtained and brought on line.

Lazarewicz, A. R.↗

Mid-latitude wind forced ocean circulation studies

A simple barotropic vorticity equation model was developed to study some of the various modeling factors that affect the characteristics of strong western boundary currents like the Gulf Stream and Kuroshio. Successful prediction of sea surface temperature, both in the climatological mean and over periods as short as 1 month requires that the heating tendency, due to horizontal advection of heat by these currents, be accurately modeled. Conventional, coarse resolution ocean models do not satisfactorily reproduce the dominant features of these currents. It is concluded that it is important to understand why they do not and what must be done to do so in the future.

Harrison, D. E.↗

Some climatological variables for TOGA-COARE domains - 1985-1990

Results are presented of the Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere-Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA-COARE) conducted in the western Pacific, with particular attention given to the atmospheric component of the experiment. The climatological variables explored are the mean sea level pressure, precipitable water, sea surface-air temperature difference, zonal wind component at 200 mb and 10 m, vertical motion at 500 mb, and precipitation rates. The paper provides some of the large-scale flow patterns in which other circulation features reside. Results are presented for three of the TOGA-COARE domains bounded by the following: (1) the Upper Air Network, 30 deg N-30 deg S, 90 deg E-70 deg W; (2) the Large-Scale Array, 10 deg N-10 deg S, 140 deg E-180 deg; and (3) the Equatorial Synoptic Array, 5 deg N-5 deg S, 150 deg E-180 deg.

Vincent, Dayton G.↗

A comparison of HCMM surface temperatures with in situ temperature data

All HCMM required were processed. Calibrated and atmospherically corrected sea surface temperatures were developed for the Nantucket Shoals and Gulf of Mexico regions. These data were analyzed and the sea surface temperatures along the various transacts were compared with in situ data. The comparisons indicate that there is, on the average, a root mean square difference between the in situ data and the HCMM sea surface temperatures of + or - 1.0 C. The linear correlation coefficient was 0.97.

Vukovich, F. M.↗

Analysis of GEOS-3 altimeter data and extraction of ocean wave height and dominant wavelength

When the amplitude and timing biases are removed from the GEOS-3 Sample and Hold (S&H) gates, the mean return waveforms can be excellently fitted with a theoretical template which represents the convolution of: (1) the radar point target response; (2) the range noise (jitter) in the altimeter tracking loop; (3) the sea surface height distribution; and (4) the antenna pattern as a function of the range to mean sea level. Several techniques of varying complexity to remove the effect of the tracking loop jitter in computing the wave height are considered. They include: (1) realigning the S&H gates to their actual positions with respect to mean sea level before averaging; (2) using the observed standard deviation on the altitude measurement to remove the integrated effect of the tracking loop jitter, and (3) using a look-up table to correct for the expected value of range noise. Analysis of skewness in the GEOS return waveform demonstrates the potential of a satellite radar altimeter to determine the dominant wavelength of ocean waves.

Walsh, E. J.↗

Supplementary notes on sea surface temperature anomalies and model-generated meteorological histories

In seasonal computations, the Mintz-Arakawa two-level model is found to be sensitive to a minor alteration in the computational program. Effects of the program change on monthly mean sea level pressure fields are small in the first month, but large in the second and third months, although the meteorological histories generated by both the original and modified programs are equally credible. The inherited effects of a transient (one month) sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly on the computed monthly mean sea level pressure fields over a period of a season are about as large in absolute magnitude as those generated in the model by a persistent (seasonal) SST anomaly. The effects of a transient SST anomaly in the North Pacific Ocean on monthly and seasonal temperature and precipitation in the eastern United States may be large enough to produce a change of one or two class intervals in these predicted weather elements. The model-generated precipitation in the equatorial region is also found to be sensitive to the sea surface temperature field in the North Pacific.

Spar, J.↗

AMOC stability and diverging response to Arctic sea ice decline in two climate models

This study compares the impacts of Arctic sea ice decline on the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) in two configurations of the Community Earth System Model with different horizontal resolution. In a suite of model experiments, we impose radiative imbalance at the ice surface, replicating a loss of sea ice cover comparable to that observed during 1979–2014, and we find dramatic differences in the AMOC response between the two models. In the lower-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by about one-third over the first 100 years, approaching a new quasi-equilibrium. By contrast, in the higher-resolution configuration, the AMOC weakens by ~10% during the first 20–30 years followed by a full recovery driven by invigorated deep water formation in the Labrador Sea and adjacent regions. We investigate these differences using a diagnostic AMOC stability indicator, which reflects the AMOC freshwater transport in and out of the basin and hence the strength of the basin-scale salt-advection feedback. This indicator suggests that the AMOC in the lower-resolution model is less stable and more sensitive to surface perturbations, as confirmed by hosing experiments mimicking Arctic freshening due to sea ice decline. Differences between the models’ mean states, including the Atlantic Ocean mean surface freshwater fluxes, control the differences in AMOC stability. Our results demonstrate that the AMOC stability indicator is indeed useful for evaluating AMOC sensitivity to perturbations. We emphasize that, despite the differences in the long-term adjustment, both models simulate a multidecadal AMOC weakening caused by Arctic sea ice decline, relevant to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Spar, J.↗

The Sensitivity of African Easterly Waves to Eastern Tropical Atlantic Sea-Surface Temperatures

The results of two regional atmospheric model simulations are compared to assess the influence of the eastern tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature maximum on local precipitation, transient easterly waves and the West African summer monsoon. Both model simulations were initialized with reanalysis 2 data (US National Center for Environmental Prediction and Department of Energy) on 15 May 2006 and extended through 6 October 2006, forced by synchronous reanalysis 2 lateral boundary conditions introduced four times daily. One simulation uses 2006 reanalysis 2 sea-surface temperatures, also updated four times daily, while the second simulation considers ocean forcing absent the sea-surface temperature maximum, achieved here by subtracting 3 K at every ocean grid point between 0 and 15 N during the entire simulation. The simulation with 2006 sea-surface temperature forcing produces a realistic distribution of June-September mean precipitation and realistic westward propagating swaths of maximum rainfall, based on validation against Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) estimates. The simulation without the sea-surface temperature maximum produces only 57% of the control June-September total precipitation over the eastern tropical Atlantic and about 83% of the Sahel precipitation. The simulation with warmer ocean temperatures generates generally stronger circulation, which in turn enhances precipitation by increasing moisture convergence. Some local precipitation enhancement is also attributed to lower vertical thermal stability above the warm water. The study shows that the eastern tropical Atlantic sea-surface temperature maximum enhances the strength of transient easterly waves and broadens the spatial extent of associated precipitation. However, large-scale circulation and its interaction with the African continent, and not sea-surface temperatures, control the timing and trajectories of the waves.

Druyan, Leonard M.↗

Relationship between clouds and sea surface temperatures in the western tropical Pacific

Analysis of four years of earth radiation budget, cloud, and sea surface temperature data confirms that cloud parameters change dramatically when and where sea surface temperatures increase above approximately 300K. These results are based upon monthly mean values within 2.5 deg x 2.5 deg grid points over the 'warm pool' region of the western tropical Pacific. The question of whether sea surface temperatures are influenced, in turn, by the radiative effects of these clouds (Ramanathan and Collins) is less clear. Such a feedback, if it exists, is weak. The reason why clouds might have so little influence, despite large changes in their longwave and shortwave radiative effects, might be that the sea surface responds to both the longwave heating and the shortwave cooling effects of clouds, and the two effects nearly cancel. There are strong correlations between the rate of change of sea surface temperature and any of the radiation budget parameters that are highly correlated with the incident solar flux-implying that season and latitude are the critical factors determining sea surface temperatures. With the seasonal or both seasonal and latitudinal variations removed, the rate of change of sea surface temperature shows no correlation with cloud-related parameters in the western tropical Pacific.

Arking, Albert↗

Recent advances in multispectral sensing of ocean surface temperature from space

Visual and infrared measurements from the five channel AVHRR on the NOAA-7 satellite are used operationally to derive sea surface temperatures. The multichannel data perform daytime and nighttime cloud detection tests, and the several atmospheric window channels in the thermal infrared correct for atmospheric attenuation. Monitoring of the sea surface temperature product with buoy data indicates stability in mean bias and rms difference with little variation by season or geographic area. Global mapping enables the derivation of monthly mean isotherms, monthly and annual changes, and anomaly patterns relative to climatology. Problems are associated with noise in the 3.7 micro m window channel, and with the injection of substantial volcanic aerosol into the stratosphere by the El Chichon eruption. Multichannel sea surface temperature charts are used to study phenomena such as equatorial long waves and the recent El Nino episode.

Mcclain, E. P.↗

Validation of Mean Absolute Sea Level of the North Atlantic obtained from Drifter, Altimetry and Wind Data

Mean absolute sea level reflects the deviation of the Ocean surface from geoid due to the ocean currents and is an important characteristic of the dynamical state of the ocean. Values of its spatial variations (order of 1 m) are generally much smaller than deviations of the geoid shape from ellipsoid (order of 100 m) that makes the derivation of the absolute mean sea level a difficult task for gravity and satellite altimetry observations. Technique used by Niiler et al. for computation of the absolute mean sea level in the Kuroshio Extension was then developed into more general method and applied by Niiler et al. (2003b) to the global Ocean. The method is based on the consideration of balance of horizontal momentum.

Maximenko, Nikolai A.↗

Modeling Whitecaps on Global Scale

Whitecaps play an important role in the surface-atmosphere interactions across the ocean. They are directly linked to the energy dissipation rate during wave breaking and transfer of heat, momentum, and gas/aerosol exchange from the wind to the sea surface. Although the first models of W were dependent only on wind speeds, a large number of diverse models based on wind and sea state which include wave height, wave age, friction velocity, and stability effects have been proposed since then. However, it is recognized that most of the proposed W models have strong systematic (e.g., zonal bias) and random errors when compared against observations. This is partly due to the differences in environmental conditions, measurement techniques, and geographical locations among these studies. But, some of these biases are linked to the inability of the proposed models to capture the variability in W in certain wind/wave regimes. Despite the knowledge of existing biases, W residual relationships from the models with wind and wave fields remain highly uncertain, with residual trends varying between the published studies. Here, we take advantage of the availability of relatively dense observations of W from WindSat microwave satellite retrievals in combination with the University of Miami wave model which was recently incorporated within the NASA GMAO/GEOS system (GEOS-UMWM). We use Windsat W retrievals to assess and constrain the previously published W models and understand the relationships of residuals from models in different wind/wave regimes. We link these unexplained residual variations to additional factors such as swell index, drag coefficient etc and add information to the existing whitecap models. Since Windsat retrievals cover wide range of environmental conditions, it helps to reduce the uncertainties associated with differences in measurement techniques. Regression of wind-wave fields against all Windsat data points (CTL) results in larger residuals for lower wave age and W is overestimated upto ~4% for wave age < 10 and underestimated by upto ~2% as wave age increases. We attest to this bias by considering two approaches. One is to perform regression separately for different stages of wave development such as developing sea, fully developed, and wind sea regimes thereby understanding the sensitivity of regression coefficients to sea state (EXP1). Another is to derive coefficients of W models in EXP1 as a function of additional wind/wave factors such as swell index, drag coefficient, and mean squared slope, deriving more nonlinear W models (EXP2). EXP2 provides reduction in Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) by 0.1-0.3%. Sea surface drag has a stronger relationship with regression coefficients compared to swell index.These additional factors provide improved parameterizations in different wind and wave age regimes, with smaller unexplained/residual variations in W that has been a major concern in the W community.

Raman, Aishwarya↗

Oceanic eddy variability measured by GEOS 3 altimeter crossover differences

Eddy statistics of sea height variations associated with dynamic ocean currents, gathered by GEOS 3 altimetry (25 cm), are discussed. Time variable flow is noted to be measureable using altimeter height and orbit information by means of three techniques: collinear tracks, where rms variability can be determined for mesoscale phenomena measured along parallel tracks; mean surfaces, using a 3-dimensional mapping of the sea surface for an accurate representation of the surface undulations; and crossover differences, such as between data tracks from GEOS and Seasat which have reduced ephemeris error over scales of a few thousand km. Mesoscale energetics have been found suitable for tracing meandering ocean currents by the crossover method. Possible sources of error are considered, including altimeter noise, orbit error, short wavelength continental shelf tides, etc., and it is determined that observations of mesoscale sea height appear to be limited only by uncertainties in the altimetry, which for Seasat was 5 cm over 60% of the world's oceans.

Cheney, R. E.↗

Estimating Uncertainty in Simulated ENSO Statistics

Abstract Large ensembles of model simulations are frequently used to reduce the impact of internal variability when evaluating climate models and assessing climate change induced trends. However, the optimal number of ensemble members required to distinguish model biases and climate change signals from internal variability varies across models and metrics. Here we analyze the mean, variance and skewness of precipitation and sea surface temperature in the eastern equatorial Pacific region often used to describe the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), obtained from large ensembles of Coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 climate simulations. Leveraging established statistical theory, we develop and assess equations to estimate, a priori, the ensemble size or simulation length required to limit sampling‐based uncertainties in ENSO statistics to within a desired tolerance. Our results confirm that the uncertainty of these statistics decreases with the square root of the time series length and/or ensemble size. Moreover, we demonstrate that uncertainties of these statistics are generally comparable when computed using either pre‐industrial control or historical runs. This suggests that pre‐industrial runs can sometimes be used to estimate the expected uncertainty of statistics computed from an existing historical member or ensemble, and the number of simulation years (run duration and/or ensemble size) required to adequately characterize the statistic. This advance allows us to use existing simulations (e.g., control runs that are performed during model development) to design ensembles that can sufficiently limit diagnostic uncertainties arising from simulated internal variability. These results may well be applicable to variables and regions beyond ENSO.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Decomposing Cloud Radiative Feedbacks by Cloud-Top Phase

Changes in cloud scattering properties and emissivity that arise from atmospheric warming cause substantial radiative feedbacks in model projections of anthropogenic climate change, and the relative importance of the underlying mechanisms is poorly understood. One leading hypothesis is that ice-to-liquid conversions cause clouds to optically thicken, producing a major negative feedback. We test this hypothesis by developing a method to decompose cloud radiative feedbacks by cloud-top phase. The method is applied to an ensemble of six state-of-the-art global climate models run with prescribed sea surface temperature. In these simulations, the global mean of the net cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions ranges from −0.17 to −0.01 W m −2 K −1 , while the overall net cloud feedback ranges from 0.02 to 0.91 W m −2 K −1 . The multimodel mean of the cloud scattering and emissivity feedback from cloud-phase conversions is approximately 19% of the magnitude of the multimodel mean of the overall cloud feedback (−0.10 vs 0.52 W m −2 K −1 ). These results indicate that cloud-phase conversions cause a robust negative feedback by changing cloud scattering and emissivity, but this mechanism makes a modest contribution to the overall cloud feedback at the global scale.

Climate change↗

Results of geodetic processing and analysis of Skylab altimetry data

A geodetic analysis of Skylab S-193 altimeter preliminary data from mission SL/2 and EREP pass 9 is considered. The overall objective of the investigation was a demonstration of the feasibility of a use of altimeter data for the determination of the geoid in ocean areas. The geoid is the equipotential surface that would coincide with an 'undisturbed' mean sea level of the earth's gravity field. Analytical data handling formulations are discussed.

Fubara, D. M. J.↗