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DOE OSTI2023

Mapping the Complete Reaction Energy Landscape of a Metal–Organic Framework Phase Transformation

Crystalline materials undergo valuable phase transformations, and the energetic processes that underlie these transformations can be fully characterized through a combination of thermodynamic and kinetic studies. Here, we report the first complete reaction energy landscape of metal–organic framework (MOF) interpenetration, specifically in the phase transformation of NU-1200 to its doubly interpenetrated counterpart, STA-26. We characterized the thermodynamics of this phase transformation by pairing experiments with density functional theory (DFT) calculations. This analysis revealed that factors such as the increase in crystal density likely drive Zr- and Hf-NU-1200 to STA-26 interpenetration, while other chemical interactions such as steric repulsions prevent Th-NU-1200 from interpenetrating. Using time-resolved in situ X-ray diffraction, we monitored phase transformation reaction profiles and extracted quantitative kinetic information using the Avrami-Erofe’ev model. As a result, we obtained activation energies for the Zr- and Hf-NU-1200 transformations to Zr- and Hf-STA-26, respectively, revealing slower phase change kinetics for MOFs with stronger bonds. Finally, we paired the kinetic data with experimental observations to classify the mechanistic model of this phase transformation as partial dissolution. Here, we anticipate that this thermodynamic, kinetic, and mechanistic understanding will broadly inform further studies on the energetics of crystallization.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

DOE OSTI2023

Progress Report on Identification and Resolution of Gaps in Mechanistic Source Term Modeling for Molten Salt Reactors

This report summarizes FY23 activities to improve mechanistic source term modeling for MSR concepts. Relevant MELCOR capability enhancements made during FY23 are summarized including development of a flexible python-based EOS generator (MELEOS), porous domain modeling capabilities for validation applications, and development of a MELCOR model for the LSTL facility in anticipation of upcoming molten salt experiments.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Flyby reaction trajectories: Chemical dynamics under extrinsic force

Dynamic effects are an important determinant of chemical reactivity and selectivity, but the deliberate manipulation of atomic motions during a chemical transformation is not straightforward. In this work, we demonstrate that extrinsic force exerted upon cyclobutanes by stretching pendant polymer chains influences product selectivity through force-imparted nonstatistical dynamic effects on the stepwise ring-opening reaction. The high product stereoselectivity is quantified by carbon-13 labeling and shown to depend on external force, reactant stereochemistry, and intermediate stability. Computational modeling and simulations show that, besides altering energy barriers, the mechanical force activates reactive intramolecular motions nonstatistically, setting up “flyby trajectories” that advance directly to product without isomerization excursions. A mechanistic model incorporating nonstatistical dynamic effects accounts for isomer-dependent mechanochemical stereoselectivity.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2022

Defining the scope for altering rice leaf anatomy to improve photosynthesis: a modelling approach

Summary Leaf structure plays an important role in photosynthesis. However, the causal relationship and the quantitative importance of any single structural parameter to the overall photosynthetic performance of a leaf remains open to debate. In this paper, we report on a mechanistic model, eLeaf, which successfully captures rice leaf photosynthetic performance under varying environmental conditions of light and CO 2 . We developed a 3D reaction‐diffusion model for leaf photosynthesis parameterised using a range of imaging data and biochemical measurements from plants grown under ambient and elevated CO 2 and then interrogated the model to quantify the importance of these elements. The model successfully captured leaf‐level photosynthetic performance in rice. Photosynthetic metabolism underpinned the majority of the increased carbon assimilation rate observed under elevated CO 2 levels, with a range of structural elements making positive and negative contributions. Mesophyll porosity could be varied without any major outcome on photosynthetic performance, providing a theoretical underpinning for experimental data. eLeaf allows quantitative analysis of the influence of morphological and biochemical properties on leaf photosynthesis. The analysis highlights a degree of leaf structural plasticity with respect to photosynthesis of significance in the context of attempts to improve crop photosynthesis.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Epitope topography of agonist antibodies to the checkpoint inhibitory receptor BTLA

B and T lymphocyte attenuator (BTLA) is an attractive target for a new class of therapeutics that attempt to rebalance the immune system by agonizing checkpoint inhibitory receptors (CIRs). Herpesvirus entry mediator (HVEM) binds BTLA in both trans- and cis-orientations. We report here the development and structural characterization of three humanized BTLA agonist antibodies, 22B3, 25F7, and 23C8. We determined the crystal structures of the antibody-BTLA complexes, showing that these antibodies bind distinct and non-overlapping epitopes of BTLA. While all three antibodies activate BTLA, 22B3 mimics HVEM binding to BTLA and shows the strongest agonistic activity in functional cell assays and in an imiquimod-induced mouse model of psoriasis. 22B3 is also capable of modulating HVEM signaling through the BTLA-HVEM cis-interaction. The data obtained from crystal structures, biochemical assays, and functional studies provide a mechanistic model of HVEM and BTLA organization on the cell surface and informed the discovery of a highly active BTLA agonist.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Lessons Learned from Ecosystem-Scale Experimental Field Studies (Workshop Report)

Efforts to understand and predict ecosystem responses to environmental change require long-term, large-scale, spatially representative experiments and observations that capture natural variability, test predictive models, and generate transferable knowledge. Such studies are indispensable for unraveling the complexities of terrestrial ecosystems and their responses to disturbances and evolving environmental conditions, while generating the data necessary for developing mechanistic models and predictive tools that inform decision-making processes. Having a rich history of designing and executing large-scale ecosystem experiments, the U.S. Department of Energy’s Environmental System Science program convened a workshop in January 2025 that brought together leaders in the field to distill critical lessons from decades of experience in large-scale experiments. The workshop aimed to (1) provide an ecosystem experiment primer for best practices, thus ensuring a high scientific return on investment for funding agencies, and (2) offer a robust framework for the design and management of future research initiatives. This report synthesizes insights and experiences from workshop participants and is structured to capture the entire research life cycle, from goal setting and design to operations, adaptive management, team dynamics, collaborations, and the often overlooked aspect of decommissioning. By synthesizing decision-making and lessons learned across diverse research approaches, the report aims to provide a template of essential factors to consider when designing successful long-term, large-scale ecosystem experiments.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1988

Modeling of hydrogen-air diffusion flame

The present research objective is to determine the effects of contaminants on extinction limits of simple, well defined, counterflow Hydrogen 2-air diffusion flames, with combustion at 1 atmosphere. Results of extinction studies and other flame characterizations, with appropriate mechanistic modeling (presently underway), will be used to rationalize the observed effects of contamination over a reasonably wide range of diffusion flame conditions. The knowledge gained should help efforts to anticipate the effects of contaminants on combustion processes in Hydrogen 2-fueled scramjets.

Isaac, Kakkattukuzhy↗

DOE OSTI2022

Comprehensive compartmental model and calibration algorithm for the study of clinical implications of the population-level spread of COVID-19: a study protocol

The complex dynamics of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has made obtaining reliable long-term forecasts of the disease progression difficult. Simple mechanistic models with deterministic parameters are useful for short-term predictions but have ultimately been unsuccessful in extrapolating the trajectory of the pandemic because of unmodelled dynamics and the unrealistic level of certainty that is assumed in the predictions. We propose a 22-compartment epidemiological model that includes compartments not previously considered concurrently, to account for the effects of vaccination, asymptomatic individuals, inadequate access to hospital care, post-acute COVID-19 and recovery with long-term health complications. Additionally, new connections between compartments introduce new dynamics to the system and provide a framework to study the sensitivity of model outputs to several concurrent effects, including temporary immunity, vaccination rate and vaccine effectiveness. Subject to data availability for a given region, we discuss a means by which population demographics (age, comorbidity, socioeconomic status, sex and geographical location) and clinically relevant information (different variants, different vaccines) can be incorporated within the 22-compartment framework. Considering a probabilistic interpretation of the parameters allows the model's predictions to reflect the current state of uncertainty about the model parameters and model states. We propose the use of a sparse Bayesian learning algorithm for parameter calibration and model selection. This methodology considers a combination of prescribed parameter prior distributions for parameters that are known to be essential to the modelled dynamics and automatic relevance determination priors for parameters whose relevance is questionable. This is useful as it helps prevent overfitting the available epidemiological data when calibrating the parameters of the proposed model. Population-level administrative health data will serve as partial observations of the model states.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Biogeochemical Processes Across Aquatic Interfaces

The aquatic interfaces exposing terrestrial soils to oxic-anoxic regime shifts represent biogeochemical “hotspots” that are extremely sensitive to climate and environmental change. However, processes and interaction across theses aquatic interfaces are poorly understood and underrepresented in current Earth system models. In this project, we aim to develop predictive understanding of the feedbacks between microbial systems and geochemical environments that determine emergent ecosystem behaviors and resilience in response to disturbances. We use experimental, mechanistic modeling and meta-analysis tools to elucidate interactions among soil, water, geomorphology and microbiology that regulate the molecular transformations and fluxes of carbon, nutrients, and redox-sensitive compounds across aquatic interfaces.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Triso Analysis Tool For Predictive Source Terms

Source term modeling for TRi-structural ISOtropic (TRISO) fuel has been performed for previous reactor designs, but few are available in the open literature. Thus, there is a need to develop a simple, versatile, and mechanistic model of fission product release and transport in gas reactor cores that can be applied to a variety of reactors through user inputs and reactor-specific radionuclide inventories. To meet this need, the TRISO Analysis Tool for Predictive Source terms (TRISO-ATOPS) was developed. This model calculates the release of the key safety-important fission products by diffusion through the kernel, silicon carbide and graphite based on fuel and graphite temperatures in the reactor under normal operation. These releases from the fuel enter the coolant where they can plate-out on cooler surfaces. A clean-up model is included for designs with a coolant purification system for removing fission gases. This initial distribution of fission products in the reactor serves as an initial condition for potential releases under postulated accident conditions. From this initial condition, the model calculates the fission product release for any transient temperature profile, and the fission product releases can then be used to assess radiological dose to the workers and the public using conventional radiological dose tools. Data on the diffusion of fission products is based on historic German TRISO experiments and the more current Department of Energy Advanced Gas Reactor TRISO fuel development program. The example cases in this work demonstrate the flexibility of the model

Stoyer, Benjamin [Idaho National Laboratory (INL),↗

DOE OSTI2023

Accurate flux predictions using tissue-specific gene expression in plant metabolic modeling

The accurate prediction of complex phenotypes such as metabolic fluxes in living systems is a grand challenge for systems biology and central to efficiently identifying biotechnological interventions that can address pressing industrial needs. The application of gene expression data to improve the accuracy of metabolic flux predictions using mechanistic modeling methods such as flux balance analysis (FBA) has not been previously demonstrated in multi-tissue systems, despite their biotechnological importance. We hypothesized that a method for generating metabolic flux predictions informed by relative expression levels between tissues would improve prediction accuracy. Relative gene expression levels derived from multiple transcriptomic and proteomic datasets were integrated into FBA predictions of a multi-tissue, diel model of Arabidopsis thaliana’s central metabolism. This integration dramatically improved the agreement of flux predictions with experimentally based flux maps from 13 C metabolic flux analysis compared with a standard parsimonious FBA approach. Disagreement between FBA predictions and MFA flux maps was measured using weighted averaged percent error values, and for parsimonious FBA this was 169%–180% for high light conditions and 94%–103% for low light conditions, depending on the gene expression dataset used. This fell to 10%-13% and 9%-11% upon incorporating expression data into the modeling process, which also substantially altered the predicted carbon and energy economy of the plant.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of a temporal multiscale method for efficient simulation of degradation in PEM Water Electrolysis under dynamic operating conditions

Hydrogen is emerging as a vital energy carrier, driven by the need to reduce carbon emissions. Proton Electrolyte Membrane Water Electrolysis (PEMWE) enables hydrogen production under fluctuating renewable power conditions but requires improved understanding and stability of the anode catalyst layer under dynamic operating conditions, especially with low noble metal loadings. Long-term degradation experiments are both time-consuming and costly; therefore, a systematic, model-aided approach is essential. In the present work, a temporal multiscale method is applied to reduce the computational effort of simulating long-term degradation processes in PEMWE, with an exemplary focus on catalyst dissolution. A mechanistic model incorporating the oxygen evolution reaction, catalyst dissolution, and hydrogen permeation from the cathode to the anode was hypothesized and implemented. In this way, the local periodicity of transport and reaction processes in dynamic PEMWE operation, which influence the gradual degradation of the catalyst layer, is captured. The temporal multiscale method significantly reduces the computational effort of simulation, decreasing processing time from hours to mere minutes. This efficiency gain is attributed to the limited evolution of Slow-Scale variables during each period of time P of the Fast-Scale variables. Consequently, simulation is required only until local periodicity is achieved within each Slow-Scale time step. Hence, the fully resolved dynamic problem is decoupled into these two scales, employing a heterogeneous multiscale technique. The developed approach effectively accelerates parameter estimation and predictive simulations, supporting systematic modeling of PEMWE degradation under dynamic conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

A novel construct for scaling groundwater–river interactions based on machine-guided hydromorphic classification

Hydrologic exchange between river channels and adjacent subsurface environments is a key process that influences water quality and ecosystem function in river corridors. Predictive numerical models are needed to understand responses of river corridors to environmental change and to support sustainable watershed management. We posit that systematic hydromorphic classification provides a scaling construct that facilitates extrapolation of outputs from local-scale mechanistic models to reduced-order models applicable at reach and watershed scales. This in turn offers the potential to improve large-scale predictions of river corridor hydrobiogeochemical processes. Here we present a new machine-guided hydromorphic classification methodology that addresses the key requirements of this objective, and we demonstrate its application to a segment of the Columbia River in the northwestern United States. The resulting hydromorphic classes form spatially coherent and physically interpretable hydromorphic units that exhibit distinct behaviors in terms of distributions of subsurface residence times (a primary control on critical biogeochemical reactions). This approach forms the basis of ongoing research that is evaluating the formulation of reduced-order models and transferability of results to other river reaches and larger scales.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Non-growing season plant nutrient uptake controls Arctic tundra vegetation composition under future climate

Abstract Plant growth and distribution in high-latitude tundra ecosystems is strongly limited by nutrient availability and is critical for quantifying centennial-scale carbon-climate interactions. However, land model representations of plant–nutrient interactions are uncertain, leading to poor comparisons with high-latitude observations. Although it has been recognized for decades in the observational community that plants continue to acquire nutrients well past when aboveground activity has ceased, most large-scale land models ignore this process. Here we address the role tundra plant nutrient acquisition during the non-growing season (NGS) has on centennial-scale vegetation growth and dynamics, with a focus on shrub expansion. We apply a well-tested mechanistic model of coupled plant, microbial, hydrological, and thermal dynamics that explicitly represents nutrient acquisition based on plant and microbial traits, thereby allowing a prognostic assessment of NGS nutrient uptake. We first show that the model accurately represents observed seasonality of NGS plant nutrient uptake in a northern Alaskan tundra site. Applying the model across the North America tundra indicates that NGS nutrient uptake is consistent with observations and ranges between ∼5% and 50% of annual uptake, with large spatial variability and dependence on plant functional type. We show that NGS plant nutrient acquisition strongly enhances modeled 21 st century tundra shrub growth and expansion rates. Our results suggest that without NGS nutrient uptake, total shrub aboveground dominance would be ∼50% lower, limited primarily by their inability to grow tall enough to maximize their inherent capacity for light competition. Evergreen shrubs would be more strongly affected because of their relatively lower capacity for nutrient remobilization and acquisition compared to deciduous shrubs. Our results highlight the importance of NGS plant and soil processes on high-latitude biogeochemistry and vegetation dynamics and motivate new observations and model structures to represent these dynamics.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Calibration and Rapid-Adoption Forecasting Techniques

CRAFT (Calibration and Rapid-Adoption Forecasting Techniques) CRAFT is a Python-based project for processing, analyzing, and modeling atmospheric or environmental data. It uses machine learning techniques, specifically Random Forest Regression, to create emulators for various environmental variables such as gross primary production and soil water content. It then uses these emulators to robustly test the parameter space of mechanistic models to provide posterior estimations of the free parameters.

Robins, Zachary↗

DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of pollen productivity and dispersal: How pollen assemblages in small lakes represent vegetation

Abstract Quantitative understanding of vegetation dynamics over timespans beyond a century remains limited. In this regard, the pollen‐based reconstruction of past vegetation enables unique research opportunities by quantifying changes in plant community compositions during hundreds to thousands of years. Critically, the methodological basis for most reconstruction approaches rests upon estimates of pollen productivity and dispersal. Previous studies, however, have reached contrasting conclusions concerning these estimates, which may be perceived to challenge the applicability and reliability of pollen‐based reconstruction. Here we show that conflicting estimates of pollen production and dispersal are, at least in part, artifacts of fixed assumptions of pollen dispersal and insufficient spatial resolution of vegetation data surrounding the pollen‐collecting lake. We implemented a Bayesian statistical model that related pollen assemblages in surface sediments of 33 small lakes (<2 ha) in the northeastern United States, with surrounding vegetation ranging from 10 1 to >10 5 m from the lake margin. Our analysis revealed three key insights. First, pollen productivity is largely conserved within taxa and across forest types. Second, when local (within a 1‐km radius) vegetation abundances are not considered, pollen‐source areas may be overestimated for some common taxa (Cupressaceae, Pinus , Quercus , and Tsuga ). Third, pollen dispersal mechanisms may differ between local and regional scales; this is missed by pollen‐dispersal models used in previous studies. These findings highlight the complex interactions between vegetation heterogeneity on the landscape and pollen dispersal. We suggest that, when estimating pollen productivity and dispersal, both detailed local and extended regional vegetation must be taken into account. Also, both deductive (mechanistic models) and inductive (statistical models) approaches are needed to better understand the emergent properties of pollen dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2011

Analysis of Terminal Deletions using a Generalized Time-Dependent Model of Radiation-Induced Formation of Chromosomal Aberrations

We have developed a model that can simulate different types of radiation induced chromosomal aberrations (CA's) and can provide predictions on the frequency and size of chromosomes with terminal deletions. Chromosomes with terminal deletions lack telomeres and this can elicit sister chromatid unions and the prolonged breakage/fusion/bridge (B/F/B) cycles that have been observed in mammalian tumors. The loss of a single telomere has been shown to cause extensive genomic instability through the B/F/B cycle process. Our model uses a stochastic process of DNA broken end joining, in which a realistic spectrum of CA's is created from improperly joined DNA free ends formed by DNA double strand breaks (DSBs). The distribution of the DNA free ends is given by a mechanistic model that takes into account the chromatin structure and track structure for high-LET radiation. The model allows for DSB clustering from high-LET radiation and simulates the formation of CA's in stages that correspond to the actual time after radiation exposure. The time scale for CA formation is derived from experimental data on DSB repair kinetics. At any given time a nucleus may have intact chromosomes, CA's, and/or unrepaired fragments, some of which are defined as terminal deletions, if they are capped by one telomere. The model produces a spectrum of terminal deletions with their corresponding probabilities and size distributions for different heavy ions exposures for the first division after exposure. This data provides valuable information because there is limited experimental data available in the literature on the on the actual size of terminal deletions. We compare our model output to the available experimental data and make a reasonable extrapolation on the number of chromosomes lacking telomeres in human lymphocytes exposed to heavy ions. This model generates data which may lead to predictions on the rate of genomic instability in cells after exposure to high charge and energy nuclei affecting astronauts during space missions.

Ponomarev, Artem L.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A mean field homogenization model for the mechanical response of ceramic matrix composites

SiC/SiC composites offer exceptional mechanical stability at high temperatures and under irradiation. These ceramic matrix composites are therefore strong candidate materials for future nuclear energy applications. Their mechanical response, which exhibits pseudo-plasticity, is mediated by matrix cracking, fiber debonding, and fiber pull-out due to slip. Here, this study introduces a mechanistic model for the behavior of unidirectionally reinforced SiC/SiC composites. Specifically a mean field homogenization approach is proposed to account for all deformation and degradation modes during mechanical deformation. The homogenization scheme relies on a Mori Tanaka method that is extended to consider the effects of the coating’s elasto-plastic response on the development of micromechanical fields. Further, the model proposed introduces a method to effectively account for the role of localized damage (i.e., cracks) on mechanical fields within both the fiber and the matrix. Upon validating the model against experimental data, the roles of interface sliding, coating dimensions and intrinsic elastic response, as well as of microstructure (e.g. porosity, fiber volume fraction) are discussed.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗