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DOE OSTI2025

Air temperature and precipitation constraining the modelled wetland methane emissions in a boreal region in northern Europe

Wetland methane responses to temperature and precipitation are studied in a boreal wetland-rich region in northern Europe using ecosystem process models. Six ecosystem models (JSBACH-HIMMELI, LPX-Bern, LPJ-GUESS, JULES, CLM4.5, and CLM5) are compared to multi-model means of ecosystem models and atmospheric inversions from the Global Carbon Project and upscaled eddy covariance flux results for their temperature and precipitation responses and seasonal cycles of the regional fluxes. Two models with contrasting response patterns, LPX-Bern and JSBACH-HIMMELI, are used as priors in atmospheric inversions with Carbon Tracker Europe–CH4 (CTE-CH4) in order to find out how the assimilation of atmospheric concentration data changes the flux estimates and how this alters the interpretation of the flux responses to temperature and precipitation. Inversion moves wetland emissions of both models towards co-limitation by temperature and precipitation. Between 2000 and 2018, periods of high temperature and/or high precipitation often resulted in increased emissions. However, the dry summer of 2018 did not result in increased emissions despite the high temperatures. The process models show strong temperature and strong precipitation responses for the region (51 %–91 % of the variance explained by both). The month with the highest emissions varies from May to September among the models. However, multi-model means, inversions, and upscaled eddy covariance flux observations agree on the month of maximum emissions and are co-limited by temperature and precipitation. The setup of different emission components (peatland emissions, mineral land fluxes) has an important role in building up the response patterns. Considering the significant differences among the models, it is essential to pay more attention to the regional representation of wet and dry mineral soils and periodic flooding which contribute to the seasonality and magnitude of methane fluxes. The realistic representation of temperature dependence of the peat soil fluxes is also important. Furthermore, it is important to use process-based descriptions for both mineral and peat soil fluxes to simulate the flux responses to climate drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Computationally Guided and Experimentally Validated Design of Custom Chelators for Critical Mineral Recovery

Selective, high throughput separation of target critical metals from complex environments such as fly ash leachates and mining process streams presents a significant challenge for economical production. Custom chelators and sorbents are an attractive technology for selective metal extraction, however it can be difficult to predict their performance, and significant experimental efforts are often required to develop chelating technologies. Here, we present a computational strategy focused on modelling chelator-metal binding interactions and benchmark these results versus experimental data. A computational pipeline combining forcefield, semiempirical, and meta-GGA methods with a thermodynamic framework optimized for error cancellation has been developed to predict binding energies of chelator complexes towards critical mineral recovery applications. This approach, originally validated on [2.2.2] cryptates binding mono- and divalent cations, demonstrated robust predictive capabilities with an R2 of 0.850 against experimental aqueous binding energies. The workflow includes metadynamics for exploring high-dimensional potential energy surfaces and a cluster-continuum model for accurate yet computationally efficient solvation modeling. Error cancellation between solvation energies of free and chelator-coordinated ions enables faster convergence, even with finite cluster sizes. Initial studies on the cryptates revealed consistent metal-ligand coordination patterns, with systematic variations influenced by ion size and charge, highlighting key structural features linked to binding selectivity. Further studies of a proprietary chelator have resulted in identification of previously unreported selectivity towards economically significant metals, which in-house experiments have confirmed, demonstrating the feasibility of this approach. By applying this methodology to new chelators targeting critical minerals such as lithium, cobalt, nickel and other strategic metals, we aim to accelerate the discovery of next-generation chelators for efficient recovery, recycling, and separation processes. This computational framework serves as the backbone of a high-throughput design pipeline tailored for sustainable resource utilization and may be applied to a wide range of systems to meet experimental needs.

computational materials↗

DOE OSTI2025

Freeze-induced crystallization: An overlooked pathway for mineral genesis in natural waters

Natural ice plays salient roles in making the Earth habitable and sustainable. Previously overlooked, its role in chemical processes is now of emerging interest, particularly due to the freeze concentration effect, which can substantially promote chemical reactions during ice formation. We demonstrate here that ice formation can serve as a dynamic and unique pathway for mineral genesis. Freezing solutions containing dissolved manganese and carbonates produced rhodochrosite (Mn II CO 3 ) even under slightly undersaturated conditions. At room temperature, by contrast, this occurred when the solution saturation level was increased by ca. 30,000 times. The cryogenic rhodochrosite formed spherical aggregates of nano-polycrystallites, distinctly different from the cubic monocrystalline particles observed at room temperature. The distinct feature likely resulted from the combined effects of the intensified supersaturation induced by the freeze concentration effect and the low temperatures within liquid-like layers, conditions that make liquid-like layers an exceptional environment for mineral genesis, unlike typical natural water systems. The cryogenic rhodochrosite formation was successfully demonstrated using in situ, real-time X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS), enabling direct observation of freeze-induced solid formation. In conclusion, our findings reveal that freeze-induced crystallization may be an active mineralization pathway, potentially influencing elemental cycles within the cryosphere and contributing to minerals with distinguishing properties and reactivities in the environment.

Earth, Atmospheric, and Planetary Sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

Radiation-induced alteration of apatite on the surface of Mars: first in situ observations with SuperCam Raman onboard Perseverance

Abstract Planetary exploration relies considerably on mineral characterization to advance our understanding of the solar system, the planets and their evolution. Thus, we must understand past and present processes that can alter materials exposed on the surface, affecting space mission data. Here, we analyze the first dataset monitoring the evolution of a known mineral target in situ on the Martian surface, brought there as a SuperCam calibration target onboard the Perseverance rover. We used Raman spectroscopy to monitor the crystalline state of a synthetic apatite sample over the first 950 Martian days (sols) of the Mars2020 mission. We note significant variations in the Raman spectra acquired on this target, specifically a decrease in the relative contribution of the Raman signal to the total signal. These observations are consistent with the results of a UV-irradiation test performed in the laboratory under conditions mimicking ambient Martian conditions. We conclude that the observed evolution reflects an alteration of the material, specifically the creation of electronic defects, due to its exposure to the Martian environment and, in particular, UV irradiation. This ongoing process of alteration of the Martian surface needs to be taken into account for mineralogical space mission data analysis.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2026

Temperature effects on cobalt hydroxide–cobalt carbonate competitive growth on carbonate surfaces

Cobalt (Co), a critical metal essential for various environmental and industrial processes, undergoes speciation and immobilization in natural systems, primarily interacting with existing mineral surfaces. Understanding the underlying mechanisms of Co immobilization on abundant carbonate surfaces under different environmental conditions is critical for predicting Co mobility, availability, and recovery. In this study, we investigated the temperature-dependent competition between CoCO 3 and Co(OH) 2 formation on calcite (CaCO 3 ) and magnesite (MgCO 3 ) surfaces. Using X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), and energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), we analyzed carbonate substrates exposed to CoCl 2 solutions at varying concentrations (0–500 μM) and temperatures (22, 50, and 80 °C). Magnesite surfaces promoted CoCO 3 formation due to its low lattice mismatch with sphaerocobaltite (CoCO 3 ). However, this slow-growing CoCO 3 component was progressively outcompeted by Co(OH) 2 formation as the temperature and/or initial Co concentration increased. On calcite surfaces, the poor lattice mismatch between calcite and sphaerocobaltite led to Co(OH) 2 outcompeting CoCO 3 formation at all three temperatures. These findings provide critical insights into the roles of substrate composition, solution chemistry, and temperature in controlling Co speciation and mobility. They carry important implications for environmental transport, geochemical cycling, and industrial recovery of cobalt in carbonate-rich systems.

Calcite↗

DOE OSTI2026

Spontaneous crack healing in calcite reveals the influence of dynamic strain evolution and surface chemistry

The mechanics of fracture healing in calcite remain poorly constrained yet are fundamental to managing fluid transport in geothermal reservoirs and hydrocarbon systems. Here, we apply microfocused synchrotron Laue X-ray diffraction and infrared spectroscopy to investigate subcritical crack healing in a 1 mm-thick calcite crystal subjected to controlled loading in a double-torsion device. Over a 44-hour period following load removal, we map the evolution of residual strain fields surrounding the crack tip and observe a progressive increase in compressive strain perpendicular to the crack plane accompanied by infrared spectroscopic signatures that reveal enhanced accumulation of water at the healed interface. The correlation between strain evolution and surface chemistry suggests that spontaneous crack healing in calcite is driven by dynamic anelastic relaxation coupled with irreversible fluid-mineral interactions. These findings offer insight into time-dependent crack closure processes in carbonates and highlight the role of chemically-mediated plasticity in subsurface fracture evolution.

materials science↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interactions between molecular-scale biogeochemical processes and hyporheic exchange for understanding coupled Fe-S-C cycling in iron-rich riparian wetlands (Final Technical Report)

Riparian wetlands are dynamic interfaces that exert strong control over water quality, contaminant mobility, and greenhouse gas emissions. These systems are characterized by hyporheic exchange between oxic surface water and anoxic groundwater, which generates steep redox gradients and promotes spatially and temporally variable microbial activity. Despite growing recognition of tightly coupled iron (Fe), sulfur (S), and carbon (C) cycling in these environments, the mechanisms governing these interactions—particularly under low-sulfate freshwater conditions—remain poorly constrained. This project developed a mechanistic understanding of how hydrologic variability and microbial processes interact to control Fe–S–C cycling in iron-rich riparian wetlands. Using a multi-scale and multi-method approach integrating field observations, geochemical and spectroscopic analyses, metagenomics, and reactive transport modeling, we demonstrate that “cryptic” sulfur cycling—rapid sulfur transformations involving intermediate-valence species—plays a dominant and previously underrecognized role in freshwater wetlands. These processes persist despite low sulfate concentrations and significantly influence iron reduction, carbon mineralization, and methane dynamics. The results show that cryptic sulfur cycling enhances dissolved Fe 2+ production, regulates methane concentrations, and is strongly controlled by climate-driven hydrologic fluxes. By linking hydroclimate, subsurface flow, and biogeochemical reactions, this work provides a predictive framework for understanding how wetland systems respond to environmental change, with direct implications for water quality and carbon cycling.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Critical mineral source potential from oil & gas produced waters in the United States

The volume of produced water, a by-product of oil & gas operations and other energy processes, has been growing across the United States (U.S.) along with the need to manage or recycle this wastewater. Produced water contains many naturally occurring elements of varying concentrations, including critical minerals which are essential to the clean energy transition. However, the current understanding of critical mineral concentrations in produced water and the associated volumes across the U.S. is limited. This study has assessed available databases and literature to gain insight into the presence and concentration of five high priority critical minerals, namely cobalt, lithium, magnesium, manganese, and nickel. The U.S. Geological Survey's National Produced Waters Geochemical Database was the main data source used for determining average critical mineral concentrations in produced water from the major oil and gas reservoirs in the U.S. The volumes of produced water for these major reservoirs were coupled with these concentrations to provide insights into where critical minerals are likely to have high abundance and therefore more recovery options. The analysis indicated the highest recovery potential for lithium and magnesium from produced water in the Permian basin and the Marcellus shale region. However, these assessments should be considered conservative due to the limited availability of reliable concentration data. Finally, it is expected more critical mineral recovery options could emerge with comprehensive characterization data from more recent and representative sources of produced water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Influence of zwitterionic amphiphilic copolymers on heterogeneous gypsum formation: A promising approach for scaling resistance

Here, this study aims to investigate the influence of zwitterionic amphiphilic copolymers (ZACs) in the nucleation and growth of heterogeneous CaSO4 at the zwitterion-water interface, which is crucial for the prevention of mineral scaling and consequent downtime or suboptimal performance in industries like membrane desalination, heat exchangers, and pipeline transportation. In situ grazing incidence small angle X-ray Scattering (GISAXS), and quartz crystal microbalance with dissipation (QCM-D) techniques were used to analyze the evolution of CaSO 4 particles on two new ZAC coatings: poly-(trifluoroethyl methacrylate-random-sulfobetaine methacrylate) (PTFEMA-r-SBMA, or PT:SBMA) and poly(trifluoroethyl methacrylate-random-2-methacryloyloxyethyl phosphorylcholine) (PTFEMA-r-MPC, or PT:MPC). The results showed that PT:MPC coatings promoted nucleation but inhibited crystal growth, resulting in slower overall reaction kinetics on PT:MPC coatings compared to PT:SBMA coatings. Interfacial interactions involving the substrates, sulfate minerals, and ions were examined, revealing that calcium ion adsorption, primarily governed by electrostatic attraction, played a crucial role in the nucleation and growth processes on both ZAC coatings. The crystal characterization revealed a phase transition from bassanite to gypsum on both ZAC coatings, suggesting that these zwitterionic materials can influence the mineral phase of heterogeneously formed CaSO 4 crystals. These findings enhance our understanding of the fundamental mechanisms underlying heterogeneous CaSO 4 scaling in the presence of zwitterionic materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Carbon Mineralization of Sulfate Wastes Containing Pb: Synchrotron Pb M3-Edge XANES Analysis of Simultaneous Heavy Metal and Carbon Sequestration

Sulfate wastes are produced in large quantities and contain toxic heavy metals such as lead (Pb), posing environmental risks. Because of favorable solubility differences, these wastes can be repurposed for engineered carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) sequestration. Understanding the fate and mobility of heavy metals during this process is important. This study focuses on Pb and the effect of zinc (Zn) on Pb in carbon mineralization. Synthesized gypsum was treated with a carbonate-rich solution at pH 11.5 to convert the sulfates to carbonates. Aqueous solutions and mineral solids were analyzed. Synchrotron-based micro-X-ray fluorescence and a novel application of Pb M3-edge X-ray absorption near-edge structure provided detailed insights into Pb distribution and mineral forms. Results showed significant reductions in aqueous Pb and Zn concentrations, indicating effective metal sequestration. Carbon mineralization transformed Pb from soluble anglesite (PbSO 4 ) into insoluble cerussite (PbCO 3 ) and hydrocerussite (Pb 3 (CO 3 ) 2 (OH) 2 ). Pb primarily precipitated onto calcium carbonate surfaces through surface-mediated precipitation reactions. While the presence of Zn modified crystallization dynamics, it did not impede Pb sequestration and potentially enhanced surface reactivity, facilitating greater Pb immobilization. These findings highlight carbon mineralization as a sustainable approach to immobilize toxic metals in sulfate wastes while advancing CO 2 sequestration efforts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Synthesizing Lithium Sorbents Using Acid Mine Drainage Solids

In this study, we prepared HMO from coal mine drainage (CMD) solids and examined the practicability of recovering Li from oil and gas produced waters and geothermal brines. We aim to innovate high-value added products from the existing extract REEs and CMs processing chain of legacy byproducts associated with coal production. CMD solids, which are precipitates collected from exhausted limestone gravels of passive CMD treatment beds, are enriched in rare earth elements (REEs) and other critical minerals (CMs), and therefore, considered as a viable alternative source for REEs/CMs to supply the Nation’s demands. A patented extraction process developed by NETL (TREE) has been demonstrated as a cost-effective and efficient approach to recover REEs/CMs from CMD solids. Here, we selected residuals of CMD solids from the TREE process that are enriched in manganese (Mn) (>20% w/w) and successfully prepared LMO using a solid-state method modified from Yoshizuka et al. (2002).

Cheng, Chin-Min↗

DOE OSTI2026

Soil Organic Matter Stabilization by Polyvalent Cations in a Buried Alkaline Soil

Buried paleosols can store large quantities of organic carbon (C), much of which persists for millennia due to isolation from surface processes that promote decomposition. Subsoil organic matter (SOM) persistence is often enhanced by mineral associations and ionic conditions—particularly high clay content and polyvalent cations—that limit microbial degradation and leaching. However, the vulnerability of these deep C stocks under erosion or environmental change remains poorly understood. This study investigates controls on SOM stabilization in the Brady paleosol and overlying modern soils across contrasting geomorphic settings in the Great Plains of Nebraska where Late Quaternary loess deposition and erosion created a sequence of buried and exposed paleosols. We sampled soils along burial and erosional toposequences and analyzed their physicochemical properties and radiocarbon‐based persistence of occluded particulate organic matter (oPOM) and mineral fractions (MF). Brady paleosol showed greater persistence (lower Fm) of oPOM and MF than modern soils, particularly under burial. This was linked to higher silt and clay content, elevated electrical conductivity, and increased exchangeable calcium and magnesium content, supporting roles for organo‐mineral interactions, flocculation, and carbonate cementation. In modern soils, SOM persistence and C content were more strongly tied to pH and cation exchange capacity. Erosional exposure reduced SOM stability and promoted geochemical convergence toward modern surface soils. These findings show that burial enhances SOM persistence via multiple stabilization mechanisms, while erosion increases subsoil C vulnerability. Our results underscore the importance of geomorphic and geochemical context in predicting soil C stability under environmental change.

Environmental sciences↗

DOE OSTI2024

The ultralow viscosity of volatile-rich kimberlite magma: Implications for the water content of primitive kimberlite melts

The eruption of deeply sourced kimberlite magma offers the fastest route to bring deep-seated volatiles back to the Earth’s surface. However, the viscosity of kimberlite magma, a factor governing its migration and eruption dynamics within Earth, remains poorly constrained. We conducted synchrotron in situ falling sphere viscometry experiments to examine kimberlite magma with different volatile contents (0 to 5 wt % H 2 O and 2 to 8 wt % CO 2 ) under high pressure-temperature conditions. The results reveal that the viscosity of volatile-rich kimberlite magma is ~1 to 2 orders lower than that of mid-ocean ridge basalt (MORB) and comparable to the ultramobile pure carbonate melt. Using the measured viscosity values, we simulated the ascent and eruption process of kimberlite magma. We found that a minimum content of ~0.5 wt % water in the primitive magma is necessary to allow the ultrafast eruption process of kimberlite, thereby enabling the preservation of diamonds and high-pressure mineral inclusions transported by the magma.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrocyclone pre-processing of wastewater algae: A strategy for inorganic ash separation

Microalgae cultivation on wastewater can provide remediation and generate valuable feedstocks for biofuel production. Wastewater algae typically have a high percentage of inorganic ash, which can reduce yield and quality of biocrude produced during hydrothermal liquefaction (HTL). Here, in this work, we evaluated the ability of hydrocyclone pre-processing to remove inorganic ash from wastewater algae. The pH of the algae slurry was adjusted to 9.5 to encourage the formation of precipitates and create a density differential between ash particles and algal cells. Hydrocyclone processing successfully concentrated ash particles in the underflow fraction and reduced the total ash percentage in the overflow fraction. Overall, hydrocyclone processing reduced the total ash by 21%, while only 8% of organics were lost. Elemental and mineral analysis showed that Mg and P were concentrated in the underflow in the form of baricite (an isomorph of vivianite). Future research should focus on improving vivianite and/or baricite formation, and therefore ash removal, by providing a reducing environment. The addition of multiple hydrocyclones in series could also improve the removal of ash. We concluded that hydrocyclone treatment of wastewater algae is a feasible method to remove inorganic ash, but further process optimization is required.

09 - BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Relationship between clay minerals and microorganisms in underground hydrogen storage reservoirs: a mini review

Hydrogen (H 2 ) will play a vital role in the global shift towards sustainable energy systems. Due to the high cost and challenges associated with storing hydrogen in large quantities for industrial applications, Underground Hydrogen Storage (UHS) in geological formations has emerged as a promising solution. Clay minerals, abundant in subsurface environments, play a critical role in UHS by providing low permeability, cation exchange capacity, and stability, essential for preventing hydrogen leakage. However, microorganisms in the subsurface, particularly hydrogenotrophic species, interact with clay minerals in ways that can affect the integrity of these storage systems. Microbes form biofilms on clay surfaces, which can cause pore clogging and reduce the permeability of the reservoir, potentially stabilizing H 2 storage and limiting injectivity. Microbial-induced chemical weathering, through the production of organic acids and redox reactions, can degrade clay minerals, releasing metal ions and destabilizing the storage site. These interactions raise concerns about the long-term storage capacity of UHS, as microbial processes could lead to H 2 loss and caprock degradation, compromising the storage system’s effectiveness. This mini review aims to cover the current understanding of the interactions between clay minerals and microorganisms and how these dynamics can affect the safe and sustainable deployment of UHS .

Clark, Allison↗

DOE OSTI2025

Thermal Characterization and Exhumation of Northwest San Juan Basin Area, NM

The San Juan Basin (SJB), located in southwestern Colorado northwestern New Mexico, containing Paleozoic through middle Cenozoic strata, formed as a partitioned basin approximately 80 Ma in response to the Laramide orogeny. The SJB is a commercially mature, petroleum-producing basin, and currently being explored for CCUS and geothermal resources. Modern heat flow within the SJB is spatially variable with higher geothermal gradients in its northern and eastern portions. The temporal history of the basin thermal history is essential for understanding capacity for carbon storage and geothermal exploration. We present thermochronometric analyses of two surface and two subsurface samples to constrain spatial-temporal thermal evolution of the northwestern San Juan Basin. Apatite (U-Th)/He thermochronometric analyses were conducted on Cliff House and Kirtland Formation outcrops and subsurface samples of the Ojo Alamo and Pictured Cliffs Formations from a DOE funded, CCUS project pilot-well. In addition, vitrinite reflectance data and 1D basin modelling constrain possible time-temperature pathways of the samples in an area where no previous studies have constrained the uplift/exhumation of the Hogback Monocline using thermochronometry. Modeling suggests that elevated subsurface temperatures developed simultaneously with regional late Oligiocene volcanism in the San Juan Volcanic field and timing of maximum burial in the SJB. Late Miocene to Pliocene cooling/exhumation through the apatite (U-Th)/He partial retention zone support stratigraphic evidence of the Colorado Plateau uplift, possibly regional epeirogenic uplift driven by mantle processes.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2026

Data from: Coupled machine learning-ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N₂O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N₂O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N2O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on approximately 12,000 N2O chamber measurements at 17 U.S. Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N2O at both training (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹) and held-out testing sites (R² = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha⁻¹ d⁻¹). Analyses identified six dominant N₂O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH₄⁺, NO₃⁻, water-filled pore space (WFPS), soil temperature, and biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N₂O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N₂O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

agricultural sciences↗

DOE OSTI2026

Coupled machine learning–ecosystem ensemble models substantially improve predictions of nitrous oxide (N 2 O) fluxes from US croplands

Nitrous oxide (N 2 O) is a potent and persistent greenhouse gas, with rising atmospheric concentrations driven in part by inefficient use of synthetic nitrogen (N) fertilizers in agriculture. Predicting soil N 2 O emissions is challenging due to high spatial and temporal variability arising from complex soil biogeochemical processes. Process-based ecosystem models and standalone machine learning (ML) approaches without extensive site-specific calibration often miss high-emission episodes. Here, we show how an Ensemble Modeling System (EMS) based on outputs from an ensemble of ecosystem models coupled to an ensemble of ML models can improve predictions and understanding of N 2 O fluxes from US cropland. Trained and validated on ~12,000 N 2 O chamber measurements at 17 US Midwest sites (six crops, 35 management practices), the EMS accurately predicted daily fluxes of N 2 O at both training (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 16.4 g N ha −1 d −1 ) and held-out testing sites (R 2 = 0.84, RMSE = 6.2 g N ha −1 d −1 ). Analyses identified six dominant N 2 O drivers: soil organic carbon (SOC), NH 4 + , NO 3 - , water-filled pore space, temperature, and aboveground biomass production. Wet, warm soils produced large N 2 O peaks only with sufficient SOC and mineral N; in low-SOC soils, fluxes remained low. Incorporating these drivers into process-based models might significantly improve their predictive capacity. The EMS demonstrates a strong potential to predict N 2 O fluxes at unseen sites, enabling more reliable regional inventories, improved gap-filling where measurements are sparse, and enhanced understanding of mechanisms to advance targeted mitigation strategies in food, feed, and bioenergy crops.

AI↗