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At least 163 records · Page 9

Chapman Conference on the Hydrologic Aspects of Global Climate Change, Lake Chelan, WA, June 12-14, 1990, Selected Papers

The present conference on the hydrological aspects of global climate change discusses land-surface schemes for future climate models, modeling of the land-surface boundary in climate models as a composite of independent vegetation, a land-surface hydrology parameterizaton with subgrid variability for general circulation models, and conceptual aspects of a statistical-dynamical approach to represent landscape subgrid-scale heterogeneities in atmospheric models. Attention is given to the impact of global warming on river runoff, the influence of atmospheric moisture transport on the fresh water balance of the Atlantic drainage basin, a comparison of observations and model simulations of tropospheric water vapor, and the use of weather types to disaggregate the prediction of general circulation models. Topics addressed include the potential response of an Arctic watershed during a period of global warming and the sensitivity of groundwater recharge estimates to climate variability and change.

Lettenmaier, Dennis P.↗

Theoretical Model Images and Spectra for Comparison with HESSI and Microwave Observations of Solar Flares

We have computed bremsstrahlung and gyrosynchrotron images and spectra from a model flare loop. Electrons with a power-law energy distribution are continuously injected at the top of a semi-circular magnetic loop. The Fokker-Planck equation is integrated to obtain the steady-state electron distribution throughout the loop. Coulomb scattering and energy losses and magnetic mirroring are included in the model. The resulting electron distributions are used to compute the radiative emissions. Sample images and spectra are presented. We are developing these models for the interpretation of the High Energy Solar Spectroscopic Imager (HESSI) x-ray/gamma ray data and coordinated microwave observations. The Fokker-Planck and radiation codes are available on the Web at http://hesperia.gsfc.nasa.gov/hessi/modelware.htm This work is supported in part by the NASA Sun-Earth Connection Program.

Fisher, Richard R.↗

Magnetic field re-arrangement after prominence eruption

It has long been known that magnetic reconnection plays a fundamental role in a variety of solar events. Although mainly invoked in flare problems, large scale loops interconnecting active regions, evolving coronal hole boundaries, the solar magnetic cycle itself, provide different evidence of phenomena which involve magnetic reconnection. A further example might be given by the magnetic field rearrangement which occurs after the eruption of a prominence. Since most often a prominence reforms after its disappearance and may be observed at about the same position it occupied before erupting, the magnetic field has to undergo a temporary disruption of relax back, via reconnection, to a configuration similar to the previous one. The above sequence of events is best observable in the case of two ribbon (2-R) flares but most probably is associated with all filament eruptions. Even if the explanation of the magnetic field rearrangement after 2-R flares in terms of reconnection is generally accepted, the lack of a 3-dimensional model capable of describing the field reconfiguration, has prevented, up to now, a thorough analysis of its topology as traced by H alpha/x ray loops. A numerical technique is presented which enables oneto predict and visualize the reconnected configuration, at any time, and therefore allows one to make a significant comparison of observations and model predictions throughout the whole process.

Kopp, R. A.↗

MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST). III. The White Dwarf Cooling Sequence

We present a substantial update to the MESA Isochrones and Stellar Tracks (MIST) library, extending the MIST model grids and isochrones down the white dwarf (WD) cooling sequence with realistic physics for WD cooling timescales. This work provides a large grid of MESA models for carbon–oxygen core WDs with hydrogen atmospheres (spectral type DA/DC), descended from full prior stellar evolution calculations. The model tracks, isochrones, and WD cooling timescale contours are available on the MIST project website and at doi:10.5281/zenodo.15242047. Our WD models provide a very large, publicly available grid with detailed physics for WD cooling timescales: realistic interior and envelope compositions, with element diffusion and heavy-element sedimentation, nuclear burning at the base of the WD hydrogen envelope, core crystallization, and C/O phase separation. As a large grid of open-source stellar evolution models, these WD models provide both out-of-the-box model tracks for comparison with observations and a framework for building further WD models to investigate variations in WD physics.

Astronomy and AstroPhysics↗

Simulating the moderating effect of a lake on downwind temperatures

A steady-state, two-dimensional numerical model is used to simulate air temperatures and humidity downwind of a lake at night. Thermal effects of the lake were modelled for the case of moderate and low surface winds under the cold-air advective conditions that occur following the passage of a cold front. Surface temperatures were found to be in good agreement with observations. A comparison of model results with thermal imagery indicated the model successfully predicts the downwind distance for which thermal effects due to the lake are significant.

Bill, R. G., Jr.↗

The 2-micron polar haze of Jupiter

Model spectra have been constructed for the CH4 lines of the polar regions of Jupiter in such as way as to encompass the hydrogen pressure-induced opacity and haze layers revealed by high-resolution spectroscopy. Comparisons between observation and model spectra indicate that, for optically thin haze models, the polar haze is primarily located between the 70 and 5 mbar pressure levels; for opaque haze models, the top of the haze layers lies in the vicinity of the 15-mbar level. It is concluded that the polar haze is widely distributed over both polar regions and exhibits no strong correlation with auroral activities.

Kim, Sang J.↗

Energy Conversion and Electron Acceleration and Transport in 3D Simulations of Solar Flares

Recent observations and simulations indicate that solar flares undergo extremely complex 3D evolution, making 3D particle transport models essential for understanding electron acceleration and interpreting flare emissions. In this study, we investigate this problem by solving Parker’s transport equation with 3D MHD simulations of solar flares. By examining energy conversion in the 3D system, we evaluate the roles of different acceleration mechanisms, including reconnection current sheet (CS), termination shock (TS), and supra-arcade downflows (SADs). We find that large-amplitude turbulent fluctuations are generated and sustained in the 3D system. The model results demonstrate that a significant number of electrons are accelerated to hundreds of keV and even a few MeV, forming power-law energy spectra. These energetic particles are widely distributed, with concentrations at the TS and in the flare looptop region, consistent with results derived from recent hard X-ray (HXR) and microwave (MW) observations. By selectively turning particle acceleration on or off in specific regions, we find that the CS and SADs effectively accelerate electrons to several hundred keV, while the TS enables further acceleration to MeV. However, no single mechanism can independently account for the significant number of energetic electrons observed. Instead, the mechanisms work synergistically to produce a large population of accelerated electrons. Our model provides spatially and temporally resolved electron distributions in the whole flare region and at the flare footpoints, enabling synthetic HXR and MW emission modeling for comparison with observations. These results offer important insights into electron acceleration and transport in 3D solar flare regions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Modeling South Pacific Ice-Ocean Interactions in the Global Climate System

The objective of this project has been to improve the modeling of interactions between large Antarctic ice shelves and adjacent regions of the Southern Ocean. Our larger goal is to gain a better understanding of the extent to which the ocean controls ice shelf attrition, thereby influencing the size and dynamics of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. Melting and freezing under ice shelves also impacts seawater properties, regional upwelling and sinking and the larger-scale ocean circulation. Modifying an isopycnal coordinate general circulation model for use in sub-ice shelf cavities, we found that the abrupt change in water column thickness at an ice shelf front does not form a strong barrier to buoyancy-driven circulation across the front. Outflow along the ice shelf base, driven by melting of the thickest ice, is balanced by deep inflow. Substantial effort was focused on the Filchner-Ronne cavity, where other models have been applied and time-series records are available from instruments suspended beneath the ice. A model comparison indicated that observed changes in the production of High Salinity Shelf Water could have a major impact on circulation within the cavity. This water propagates into the cavity with an asymmetric seasonal signal that has similar phasing and shape in the model and observations, and can be related to winter production at the sea surface. Even remote parts of the sub-ice shelf cavity are impacted by external forcing on sub-annual time scales. This shows that cavity circulations and products, and therefore cavity shape, will respond to interannual variability in sea ice production and longer-term climate change. The isopycnal model gives generally lower net melt rates than have been obtained from other models and oceanographic data, perhaps due to its boundary layer formulation, or the lack of tidal forcing. Work continues on a manuscript describing the Ross cavity results.

Holland, David M.↗

A comparison of high-temperature flare models with observations and implications for the low-temperature flare

EUV data from the Harvard College Observatory and Naval Research Laboratory instruments on board the Skylab Apollo telescope mount, together with SOLRAD 9 X-ray data, are analyzed in order to empirically deduce the variation of emission measure with temperature in the atmosphere of a number of solar flares. A 'mean' differential emission measure profile Q(T) for a flare is constructed which is then compared with the profile predicted by a number of theoretical models. It is found that realistic flare models must include both conductive and radiative terms in the energy equation, and that hydrodynamic terms may be important at low temperatures. The implications of the results obtained are discussed for flare models in general and it is shown that the inclusion of the conductive term into models which have hitherto neglected it can perhaps resolve some of the observational difficulties with such models.

Machado, M. E.↗

Observations of Keyhole Porosity and Comparisons to Analytical Models for Ti-6Al-4V Powder Bed Fusion

Keyhole porosity defects are a common concern in powder bed fusion (PBF) processing. Keyhole porosity prediction models have generally fallen into two categories – high fidelity computational fluid dynamics simulations and low fidelity analytical or empirical models based on keyhole vibration dynamics. The low computational cost of low fidelity models allows them to better approach part-scale predictions. However, studies on low fidelity modeling techniques are limited by the lack of experimental data to assess the validity of the calibration over a wide range of processing conditions. This work extracts and quantifies keyhole porosity across 14 laser velocities, two laser powers, and six+ repetitions for a total of 176 independent trials. The measured porosity data are compared to low fidelity keyhole models to assess their success in predictive porosity occurrence. This work impacts the field by providing independent validation of keyhole porosity models for PBF for use in part-scale defect prediction.

powder bed fusion↗

Application of the CALIOP Layer Product to Evaluate the Vertical Distribution of Aerosols Estimated by Global Models: AeroCom Phase I Results

The CALIOP (Cloud-Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization) layer product is used for a multimodel evaluation of the vertical distribution of aerosols. Annual and seasonal aerosol extinction profiles are analyzed over 13 sub-continental regions representative of industrial, dust, and biomass burning pollution, from CALIOP 2007-2009 observations and from AeroCom (Aerosol Comparisons between Observations and Models) 2000 simulations. An extinction mean height diagnostic (Z-alpha) is defined to quantitatively assess the models' performance. It is calculated over the 0-6 km and 0-10 km altitude ranges by weighting the altitude of each 100 m altitude layer by its aerosol extinction coefficient. The mean extinction profiles derived from CALIOP layer products provide consistent regional and seasonal specificities and a low inter-annual variability. While the outputs from most models are significantly correlated with the observed Z-alpha climatologies, some do better than others, and 2 of the 12 models perform particularly well in all seasons. Over industrial and maritime regions, most models show higher Z-alpha than observed by CALIOP, whereas over the African and Chinese dust source regions, Z-alpha is underestimated during Northern Hemisphere Spring and Summer. The positive model bias in Z-alpha is mainly due to an overestimate of the extinction above 6 km. Potential CALIOP and model limitations, and methodological factors that might contribute to the differences are discussed.

Aerosols and particles↗

Seasonal and global cloud variations deduced from polar orbiting satellite radiance measurements

The utility of currently available satellite radiance data for determining cloud radiative effects is evaluated. Each location observed by satellite is classified as clear or cloudy by comparison of measured radiances with specified values. Clear scene radiances are functions of time and location which represent the actual variation of the surface and atmospheric properties that affect the measured radiances. Cloud properties are determined by comparison of model and observed radiance. The seasonal change in cloud properties is shown, displaying the difference between July and January monthly mean values of cloud cover fraction, cloud top temperature, cloud top altitude, and cloud optical thickness.

Rossow, W. B.↗

SO2 Plumes Observation with LMOL: Theory, Modeling, and Validation

LMOL, the NASA Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar, is locatednear NASA’s LaRC steam plant when not deployed in campaigns. Theplant produces steam through the incineration of local trash, and itsexhaust plume occasionally contains SO2.SO2is a known, regulated, pollutant that affects O3observations in theUV, as is the case with LMOL. In this work, we show how we modifiedLMOL to detect the plant SO2plumes and compute its density when theO3background is stable; we observed densities compatible with what isexpected from the typical plume exhaust. The selection of laser lines sothat an O3variation would not get confused with a SO2detection isexplained in details, and a model capable of simulating the Lidar signalwith (notably) O3and SO2absorption for the validation of the retrievalresolution and uncertainty is presented. Finally, the comparison betweenthe modeled and observed performances of the system is shown: themaximum altitude, resolution, and error in the modeled signal and theobserved signals are the same within reasonable margins.This work demonstrates that LMOL is fully capable of working withSO2. The next step being the addition of an additional laser channel,which is simplified by the tunable aspect of the LMOL laser, to addressO3and SO2simultaneously, allowing the assessment of SO2when O3has variations.

Guillaume Gronoff↗

Magnetic field draping against the dayside magnetopause

Interplanetary magnetic fields observed upstream of Earth's magnetosphere at ISEE 3 form input for a gasdynamic model of magnetic field draping in the dayside magnetosheath. Model results near the magnetopause are compared with appropriately lagged observations at ISEE 1. In 16 to 24 cases, the angle between the transverse component of the model and observed fields is less than 20 deg. The agreement is surprisingly good in view of the uncertainty introduced by the large distances between ISEE 1 and ISEE 3. The results indicate that magnetohydrodynamic and energy transfer processes at the magnetopause do not cause large distortions of the magnetosheath magnetic field. In addition, a comparison between observed and model field magnitudes indicates that immediately outside the magnetopause the observed field behaves like the model field at a distance of approx. 0.5 R sub E from the magnetopause, outside the region where magnetohydrodynamic effects make the gasdynamic model inapplicable. Patterns of model magnetic field orientation at the magnetopause are presented for practical application.

Crooker, N. U.↗

Magnetic field draping against the dayside magnetopause

Interplanetary magnetic fields observed upstream of earth's magnetosphere at ISEE 3 form input for a gasdynamic model of magnetic field draping in the dayside magnetosheath. Model results near the magnetopause are compared with appropriately lagged observations at ISEE 1. In 16 to 24 cases, the angle between the transverse component of the model and observed fields is less than 20 deg. The agreement is surprisingly good in view of the uncertainty introduced by the large distances between ISEE 1 and ISEE 3. The results indicate that magnetohydrodynamic and energy transfer processes at the magnetopause do not cause large distortions of the magnetosheath magnetic field. In addition, a comparison between observed and model field magnitudes indicates that immediately outside the magnetopause the observed field behaves like the model field at a distance of approx. 0.5 R sub E from the magnetopause, outside the region where magnetohydrodynamic effects make the gasdynamic model inapplicable. Patterns of model magnetic field orientation at the magnetopause are presented for practical application.

Crooker, N. U.↗

Emission Factors and Evolution of SO2 Measured From Biomass Burning in Wildfires and Agricultural Fires

Fires emit sufficient sulfur to affect local and regional air quality and climate. This study analyzes SO2 emission factors and variability in smoke plumes from US wildfires and agricultural fires, as well as their relationship to sulfate and hydroxymethanesulfonate (HMS) formation. Observed SO2 emission factors for various fuel types show good agreement with the latest reviews of biomass burning emission factors, producing an emission factor range of 0.47–1.2 g SO2 kg^(−1) C. These emission factors vary with geographic location in a way that suggests that deposition of coal burning emissions and application of sulfur-containing fertilizers likely play a role in the larger observed values, which are primarily associated with agricultural burning. A 0-D box model generally reproduces the observed trends of SO2 and total sulfate (inorganic + organic) in aging wildfire plumes. In many cases, modeled HMS is consistent with the observed organosulfur concentrations. However, a comparison of observed organosulfur and modeled HMS suggests that multiple organosulfur compounds are likely responsible for the observations but that the chemistry of these compounds yields similar production and loss rates as that of HMS, resulting in good agreement with the modeled results. We provide suggestions for constraining the organosulfur compounds observed during these flights, and we show that the chemistry of HMS can allow organosulfur to act as an S(IV) reservoir under conditions of pH > 6 and liquid water content >10^(−7) g sm^(−3). This can facilitate long-range transport of sulfur emissions, resulting in increased SO2 and eventually sulfate in transported smoke.

Sulfur↗

Climatology of the Aerosol Optical Depth by Components from the Multi-Angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) and Chemistry Transport Models

The Multi-angle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR) Joint Aerosol (JOINT_AS) Level 3 product has provided a global, descriptive summary of MISR Level 2 aerosol optical depth (AOD) and aerosol type information for each month over 16+ years since March 2000. Using Version 1 of JOINT_AS, which is based on the operational (Version 22) MISR Level 2 aerosol product, this study analyzes, for the first time, characteristics of observed and simulated distributions of AOD for three broad classes of aerosols: spherical nonabsorbing, spherical absorbing, and nonspherical - near or downwind of their major source regions. The statistical moments (means, standard deviations, and skew-nesses) and distributions of AOD by components derived from the JOINT_AS are compared with results from two chemistry transport models (CTMs), the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) and SPectral RadIatioN-TrAnSport (SPRINTARS). Overall, the AOD distributions retrieved from MISR and modeled by GOCART and SPRINTARS agree with each other in a qualitative sense. Marginal distributions of AOD for each aerosol type in both MISR and models show considerable high positive skewness, which indicates the importance of including extreme AOD events when comparing satellite retrievals with models. The MISR JOINT_AS product will greatly facilitate comparisons between satellite observations and model simulations of aerosols by type.

SPRINTARS↗

An interactive environment for the analysis of large Earth observation and model data sets

We propose to develop an interactive environment for the analysis of large Earth science observation and model data sets. We will use a standard scientific data storage format and a large capacity (greater than 20 GB) optical disk system for data management; develop libraries for coordinate transformation and regridding of data sets; modify the NCSA X Image and X DataSlice software for typical Earth observation data sets by including map transformations and missing data handling; develop analysis tools for common mathematical and statistical operations; integrate the components described above into a system for the analysis and comparison of observations and model results; and distribute software and documentation to the scientific community.

Bowman, Kenneth P.↗