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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Use of Physics to Improve Solar Forecast: Part II, Machine Learning and Model Interpretability

Machine learning (ML) models have been applied to forecast solar energy; however, they often lack clarity of interpretability and underlying physics. This work addresses such challenges by developing a hierarchy of ML models that gradually introduce predictors to improve the forecast accuracy based on a physics-based framework. Three ML models (ARIMA, LSTM, and XGBoost) are examined and compared with four physics-informed persistence models reported in Part I and the simple persistence model to assess the improvement of different models. The 7-year measurements at the U.S. Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement's Southern Great Plains Central Facility site are used for forecasts and evaluations. The results reveal that the step-by-step introduction of predictors leads to different improvements for models at different hierarchical levels. Comparison of the ML models with persistence models shows that LSTM and XGBoost outperform all the persistence models, with LSTM having the overall best performance; however, ARIMA underperforms the four physics-informed persistence models. This study demonstrates the importance and utility of incorporating physics into ML models in improving forecast accuracy by introducing a hierarchy of physics-based predictors, distinguishing predictor contributions, and enhancing the ML interpretability. The combined use of Global Horizontal Irradiance (GHI) and Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) significantly improves the forecast accuracy compared to using individual irradiances alone because the pair contains more information on cloud-radiation interactions.

interpretability↗
DOE OSTI2023

Status Report on Thermal Delivery Modeling in HYBRID

This report details the modeling efforts consistent with the HYBRID repository of the Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program, motivated to develop information data tables characterizing the thermodynamic losses associated with transporting thermal energy over large distances. The described model establishes a methodology to currently characterize the impacts of certain parameters such as distance, piping geometry, and heat transfer fluid among others as well as sets up ability to interconnect the delivery model into Modelica IES simulations in the future. This report describes the modeling efforts completed and describes some of the future studies that will be done using results produced by the modeling efforts.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
NASA NTRS1989

Part A: Nonprincipal-plane scattering from flat plates: Second-order and corner diffractions

Two models of a flat plate for nonprincipal-plane scattering are explored. The first is a revised version of the Physical Optics/Physical Theory of Diffraction (PO/PTD) model with second-order PTD equivalent currents included to account for second-order interactions among the plate edges. The second model uses a heurisitcally derived corner diffraction coefficient to account for the corner scattering mechanism. The patterns obtained using the newer models were compared to the data of previously reported models, the Moment Method (MM), and experimental results. Near normal incidence, all the models agreed; however, near grazing incidence a need for higher-order and corner diffraction mechanisms was noted. In many instances the second-order and corner-scattered fields which were formulated improved the results.

Balanis, Constantine A.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Power Management and Distribution (PMAD) Model Development: Final Report

Power management and distribution (PMAD) models were developed in the early 1990's to model candidate architectures for various Space Exploration Initiative (SEI) missions. They were used to generate "ballpark" component mass estimates to support conceptual PMAD system design studies. The initial set of models was provided to NASA Lewis Research Center (since renamed Glenn Research Center) in 1992. They were developed to estimate the characteristics of power conditioning components predicted to be available in the 2005 timeframe. Early 90's component and device designs and material technologies were projected forward to the 2005 timeframe, and algorithms reflecting those design and material improvements were incorporated into the models to generate mass, volume, and efficiency estimates for circa 2005 components. The models are about ten years old now and NASA GRC requested a review of them to determine if they should be updated to bring them into agreement with current performance projections or to incorporate unforeseen design or technology advances. This report documents the results of this review and the updated power conditioning models and new transmission line models generated to estimate post 2005 PMAD system masses and sizes. This effort continues the expansion and enhancement of a library of PMAD models developed to allow system designers to assess future power system architectures and distribution techniques quickly and consistently.

Metcalf, Kenneth J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19, An Exercise in Data Governance at Sandia National Laboratories

In April of 2020, Sandia National Laboratories had an urgent need to identify and manage the data that could be used to create mobile applications, models, reports, and visualizations to assist management in safely bringing the workforce onsite during the COVID-19 pandemic. Multiple divisions volunteered to design and build software solutions; meanwhile, requests for new data sources, including duplicate requests, were inundating Information Technology (IT) and data owners. The Enterprise Data Governance Team was assigned to resolve obtaining and accessing new sources of data in an accelerated timeframe. Through successful collaboration with multiple stakeholders and domain owners across Sandia, the Enterprise Data Governance Team rapidly developed a centralized data strategy and solution for use in safeguarding the Sandia workforce during the COVID-19 pandemic. This foundation enabled teams to successfully develop solutions, including reports for executives and management as well as the data for modeling and scientific analysis.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
NASA NTRS1974

Correaltion of full-scale drag predictions with flight measurements on the C-141A aircraft. Phase 2: Wind tunnel test, analysis, and prediction techniques. Volume 1: Drag predictions, wind tunnel data analysis and correlation

The degree of cruise drag correlation on the C-141A aircraft is determined between predictions based on wind tunnel test data, and flight test results. An analysis of wind tunnel tests on a 0.0275 scale model at Reynolds number up to 3.05 x 1 million/MAC is reported. Model support interference corrections are evaluated through a series of tests, and fully corrected model data are analyzed to provide details on model component interference factors. It is shown that predicted minimum profile drag for the complete configuration agrees within 0.75% of flight test data, using a wind tunnel extrapolation method based on flat plate skin friction and component shape factors. An alternative method of extrapolation, based on computed profile drag from a subsonic viscous theory, results in a prediction four percent lower than flight test data.

Macwilkinson, D. G.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Following the Water: the Evolution of Ice-forming Regions in the Early Solar Nebula

The abundances of water-vapor and water-ice during the first ten million years of the protoplanetary solar nebula are simulated using a new condensation/sublimation model. This study builds on a "snow line" model reported in ApJ 627 L153 (2005); it uses a simple phenomenological model where water vapor molecules evolve from solar atomic abundance and eventually condenses to ice at colder points in the nebula once the water-vapor partial pressure exceeds a value determined by the phase diagram for water. The synthesis of water vapor from elementary species is modeled with a chemical network consisting of about 400 species and 4000 reactions. The evolution of the icy zone (and its relative abundance of solid ice) is traced from a limited region in the early hotter disk to its final state at the time when the gas is expelled and a planetary system begins to form. Possible effects of this dynamic motion on disk chemistry and organic molecule formation are also described.

Davis, Sanford S.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling and Simulation Credibility Assessment of Finite Element Models for Fall From Heights Injury Scenarios

Finite element (FE) computational models of the whole human body are being used to investigate the injury modalities and mechanisms arising from suited astronauts’ ExtraVehicular Activities (EVAs). These FE whole body models – simplified Elemance and THUMS pedestrian versions – have undergone a series of verification and validation (V&V) assessments for applications in automotive, domestic, and contact sports arenas. However, the FE models’ Modeling and Simulation (M&S) credibility assessments for simulating suited astronaut injuries due to fall from heights in altered gravity environments are limited. The current study evaluates the M&S credibility of simplified Elemance and THUMS pedestrian FE models based on eight credibility factors – data pedigree, input pedigree, code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, referent validation, results uncertainty, and results robustness – as per NASA-STD-7009A [1]. These credibility factors were assigned ordinal scores ranging between 0 to 4, with a score of 0 in the case of insufficient evidence and 4 when all data for the model is known, used appropriately, and traceable to the Real-World System (RWS) with acceptable accuracy, precision, and uncertainty. The credibility factor sufficiency thresholds were assigned upon guidance from NASA EVA subject matter experts. The factor scores were ascertained through the evaluation of M&S credibility assessment procedures described in the published literature and FE model reports. The M&S credibility scores for the Elemance and THUMS FE models vary between 1 and 3 for data pedigree, input pedigree, and referent validation credibility factors, and between 0 and 1 for code verification, solution verification, conceptual validation, results uncertainty and results robustness. The results show that these FE models are credible for simulating fall from heights injury scenarios in specific kinematic and kinetic ranges that correlate with highway and contact sports-related external conditions. Multiple credibility elevation strategies are prescribed to improve the Elemance and THUMS models’ credibility for use in the EVA fall from height injury scenarios.

R A Perkins↗
NASA NTRS2008

Optimizing Requirements Decisions with KEYS

Recent work with NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory has allowed for external access to five of JPL's real-world requirements models, anonymized to conceal proprietary information, but retaining their computational nature. Experimentation with these models, reported herein, demonstrates a dramatic speedup in the computations performed on them. These models have a well defined goal: select mitigations that retire risks which, in turn, increases the number of attainable requirements. Such a non-linear optimization is a well-studied problem. However identification of not only (a) the optimal solution(s) but also (b) the key factors leading to them is less well studied. Our technique, called KEYS, shows a rapid way of simultaneously identifying the solutions and their key factors. KEYS improves on prior work by several orders of magnitude. Prior experiments with simulated annealing or treatment learning took tens of minutes to hours to terminate. KEYS runs much faster than that; e.g for one model, KEYS ran 13,000 times faster than treatment learning (40 minutes versus 0.18 seconds). Processing these JPL models is a non-linear optimization problem: the fewest mitigations must be selected while achieving the most requirements. Non-linear optimization is a well studied problem. With this paper, we challenge other members of the PROMISE community to improve on our results with other techniques.

requirements↗
NASA NTRS2020

Constraining Remote Oxidation Capacity with ATom Observations

The global oxidation capacity, defined as the tropospheric mean concentration of the hydroxyl radical (OH), controls the lifetime of reactive trace gases in the atmosphere such as methane and carbon monoxide (CO). Models tend to underestimate the methane lifetime and CO concentrations throughout the troposphere, which is consistent with excessive OH. Approximately half the oxidation of methane and non-methane volatile organic compounds (VOCs) is thought to occur over the oceans where oxidant chemistry has received little validation due to a lack of observational constraints. We use observations from the first two deployments of the NASA ATom aircraft campaign during July–August 2016 and January–February 2017 to evaluate the oxidation capacity over the remote oceans and its representation in the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model. The model successfully simulates the magnitude and vertical profile of remote OH within the measurement uncertainties. Comparisons against the drivers of OH production (water vapor, ozone, and NOy concentrations, ozone photolysis frequencies) also show minimal bias with the exception of wintertime NOy, for which a model overestimate may indicate insufficient wet scavenging and/or missing loss on seasalt aerosol but large uncertainties remain that require further studies of NOy partitioning and removal in the troposphere. During the ATom-1 deployment, OH reactivity (OHR) below 3 km is significantly enhanced, and this is not captured by the sum of its measured components (cOHRobs) or by the model (cOHRmod). This enhancement could suggest missing reactive VOCs but cannot be explained by new estimates of ocean VOC sources and additional modeled reactivity in this region would be difficult to reconcile with the full suite of ATom measurement constraints. The model generally reproduces the magnitude and seasonality of cOHRobs but underestimates the contribution of oxygenated VOC, mainly acetaldehyde, which is severely underestimated throughout the troposphere despite its calculated lifetime of less than a day. Missing model acetaldehyde in previous studies was attributed to measurement uncertainties that have been largely resolved. Observations of peroxyacetic acid (PAA) provide new support for remote levels of acetaldehyde. The underestimate in modeled acetaldehyde and PAA is present throughout the year in both hemispheres and peaks during Northern Hemisphere summer. The addition of ocean VOC sources in the model increases annual surface cOHRmod by 10 % and improves model-measurement agreement for acetaldehyde particularly in winter but cannot resolve the model summertime bias. Doing so would require a 100 Tg yr−1 source of a long-lived unknown precursor throughout the year with significant additional emissions in the Northern Hemisphere summer. Improving the model bias for remote acetaldehyde and PAA is unlikely to fully resolve previously reported model global biases in OH and methane lifetime, suggesting that future work should examine the sources and sinks of OH over land.

Travis, Katherine R.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Comparison of NO Laser-Induced Fluorescence Models at Conditions Relevant to Supersonic and Hypersonic Flows

Planar laser-induced fluorescence (PLIF) of the nitric oxide (NO) molecule has been widely used in wind tunnel facilities for flow visualization, velocity, and temperature measurements. The experimental PLIF measurements are often compared with synthetic PLIF images using computationally derived temperatures, pressures, velocities, and species mole fractions. This approach is commonly referred to as computational flow imaging (CFI). In the present work, we compare signal intensity from PLIF models with experimental PLIF measurements obtained within a low pressure gas cell system at pressures and NO mole fractions relevant to supersonic and hypersonic flowfields. Experimental measurements were compared to several different laser induced-fluorescence models reported in the literature including LIFBASE, LINUS, and a NASA two-level model. The experimental measurements agreed well with all of the models at lower pressures and lower NO mole fractions; the fluorescence there is linear with both of these parameters. However, at higher pressures and mole fractions, the signal becomes nonlinear with respect to these parameters as self-quenching limits the signal and absorption further limits the signal. In fact, for the experimental path length of the experiment, the combination of high pressure and high NO mole fraction causes the experimental results to deviate significantly from the predicted results that neglect absorption of the incident laser sheet. The LINUS model, which allows absorption to be calculated, provided results that agreed better with the experimental measurements. Since supersonic and hypersonic flowfields may contain a region of the flow with high pressures and measurements in large-scale facilities often include a long path length, neglecting absorption may have a significantly negative effect on the CFI comparison to experimental PLIF images. As a result, PLIF models that account for absorption should be included in computational flow imaging approaches for laser induced fluorescence.

laser-induced fluorescence↗
NASA NTRS1978

A spectral analysis of thunderstorm turbulence and jet transport landing performance

A description is presented of a study which examines not only wind shear, but considers the velocity spectrum of the wind, as it may affect the flight of an aircraft. A model reported by McCarthy and Blick (1976) and by Blick et al. (1978) is considered. The model simulated the approach performance of a Boeing 727-type aircraft, as affected by the time series winds measured along the aircraft's longitudinal axis. Attention is given to the model and its implications, wind shear simulations, and the use of the model in the study of a crash on June 24, 1975.

Mccarthy, J.↗