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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Modeling Reliability Growth

Reliability growth has been modelled as an exponential decline in the cumulative failure rate that continues indefinitely as long as testing continues. Contrary to this, most reliability growth data show a brief high initial failure rate due to infant mortality followed by a long period of constant low failure rate. A two part failure rate model with an initial exponential decline followed by a constant failure rate usually fits the data and provides a more realistic description of reliability growth. The reliability growth process consists of testing, experiencing failures, finding the failure causes, and redesigning the system to remove them. The cost of reliability growth increases with the number of inherent failure modes and the time needed for them to occur and be removed. The failure modes with the lower failure rates will tend to occur later, as their Mean Time Before Failure (MTBF) is the inverse of the failure rate. Reliability growth testing has diminishing returns, since it takes longer to find and remove the less probable failures.This paper first discusses the reliability bathtub curve and then explains that reliability growth is produced by testing, identifying failure causes, and designing to remove them. A simple model of reliability growth is introduced, with a brief group of early failures followed by a constant failure rate. The cumulative failure rate n(t)/t can decline as rapidly as1/t or t-1butdeclines more slowly if additiona lfailures occur. The 56-failure Crow data seti s used to demonstrate the two-phase model of reliability growth followed by a constant failure rate. 13 additional data sets are modeled, with 9 of the 14 data sets showing reliability growth approximately as n(t)/t =1/t or t-1and substantial final failure rates. The model fits most of the data sets, but 4of the 14 show no reliability growth. The reliability growth period typically includes six failures and extends one-quarter or half the total test time. As reliability growth testing continues, the cumulative failure rate should be tracked to estimate the reliability growth exponent and the final failure rate.

reliability growth modeling↗
DOE OSTI2025

Search for displaced leptons in $\sqrt{𝑠}$ =13 TeV and 13.6 TeV 𝑝⁢𝑝 collisions with the ATLAS detector

A search for leptons displaced from the primary vertex is performed with the ATLAS detector at the Large Hadron Collider. The search includes the full proton-proton collision dataset collected during Run 2 at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13 TeV and a partial dataset collected during Run 3 in 2022–2023 at $\sqrt{𝑠}$ = 13.6 TeV, corresponding to integrated luminosities of 140 fb −1 and 56.3 fb −1 , respectively. Final states with displaced electrons or muons are considered, and novel triggers introduced in Run 3 are employed that use large impact parameter tracking to reconstruct displaced tracks with low momentum. In addition, photon reconstruction and multivariate techniques are employed to broaden the sensitivity to channels with large background rates or highly displaced electrons, respectively. The results are consistent with the Standard Model background expectations and are used to set model-independent limits on the production of displaced electrons and muons. The analysis is also interpreted in the context of a gauge-mediated supersymmetry breaking model with pair-produced long-lived sleptons and a dark sector model with pair-produced chargino-like states. The results include 95% confidence level exclusions of selectrons with lifetimes from 4 ps to 60 ns and a mass of 150 GeV, and exclusions of selectrons, smuons, and staus with a lifetime of 0.3 ns for masses up to 740, 830, and 440 GeV, respectively. Dark charginos with masses up to 380 GeV are excluded for a mass difference with the neutral state of 40 GeV, and mass differences down to 17 GeV are excluded for dark charginos with a 100 GeV mass.

supersymmetric models↗
NASA NTRS1980

Precision orbit determination software validation experiment

This paper presents the results of an experiment which was designed to ascertain the level of agreement between GEODYN and UTOPIA, two completely independent computer programs used for precision orbit determination, and to identify the sources which limit the agreement. For a limited set of models and a seven-day data set arc length, the altitude components of the ephemeris obtained by the two programs agree at the sub-centimeter level throughout the arc.

Schutz, B. E.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Validation for Global Solar Wind Prediction Using Ulysses Comparison: Multiple Coronal and Heliospheric Models Installed at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The prediction of the background global solar wind is a necessary part of space weather forecasting. Several coronal and heliospheric models have been installed and/or recently upgraded at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC), including the Wang-Sheely-Arge (WSA)-Enlil model, MHD-Around-a-Sphere (MAS)-Enlil model, Space Weather Modeling Framework (SWMF), and Heliospheric tomography using interplanetary scintillation data. Ulysses recorded the last fast latitudinal scan from southern to northern poles in 2007. By comparing the modeling results with Ulysses observations over seven Carrington rotations, we have extended our third-party validation from the previous near-Earth solar wind to middle to high latitudes, in the same late declining phase of solar cycle 23. Besides visual comparison, wehave quantitatively assessed the models capabilities in reproducing the time series, statistics, and latitudinal variations of solar wind parameters for a specific range of model parameter settings, inputs, and grid configurations available at CCMC. The WSA-Enlil model results vary with three different magnetogram inputs.The MAS-Enlil model captures the solar wind parameters well, despite its underestimation of the speed at middle to high latitudes. The new version of SWMF misses many solar wind variations probably because it uses lower grid resolution than other models. The interplanetary scintillation-tomography cannot capture the latitudinal variations of solar wind well yet. Because the model performance varies with parameter settings which are optimized for different epochs or flow states, the performance metric study provided here can serve as a template that researchers can use to validate the models for the time periods and conditions of interest to them.

Jian, L. K.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Material Characterization and Geometric Segmentation of a Composite Structure Using Microfocus X-Ray Computed Tomography Image-Based Finite Element Modeling

This study utilizes microfocus x-ray computed tomography (CT) slice sets to model and characterize the damage locations and sizes in thermal protection system materials that underwent impact testing. ScanIP/FE software is used to visualize and process the slice sets, followed by mesh generation on the segmented volumetric rendering. Then, the local stress fields around several of the damaged regions are calculated for realistic mission profiles that subject the sample to extreme temperature and other severe environmental conditions. The resulting stress fields are used to quantify damage severity and make an assessment as to whether damage that did not penetrate to the base material can still result in catastrophic failure of the structure. It is expected that this study will demonstrate that finite element modeling based on an accurate three-dimensional rendered model from a series of CT slices is an essential tool to quantify the internal macroscopic defects and damage of a complex system made out of thermal protection material. Results obtained showing details of segmented images; three-dimensional volume-rendered models, finite element meshes generated, and the resulting thermomechanical stress state due to impact loading for the material are presented and discussed. Further, this study is conducted to exhibit certain high-caliber capabilities that the nondestructive evaluation (NDE) group at NASA Glenn Research Center can offer to assist in assessing the structural durability of such highly specialized materials so improvements in their performance and capacities to handle harsh operating conditions can be made.

Abdul-Aziz, Ali↗
DOE OSTI2025

Bayesian model mixing with multireference energy density functional

Reliably predicting nuclear properties across the entire chart of isotopes is important for applications ranging from nuclear astrophysics to superheavy science to nuclear technology. To this day, however, all the theoretical models that can scale at the level of the chart of isotopes remain semiphenomenological. Because they are fitted locally, their predictive power can vary significantly; different versions of the same theory provide different predictions. Bayesian model mixing takes advantage of such imperfect models to build a local mixture of a set of models to make improved predictions. Earlier attempts to use Bayesian model mixing for mass table calculations relied on models treated at single-reference energy density functional level, which fail to capture some of the correlations caused by configuration mixing or the restoration of broken symmetries. In this study we have applied Bayesian model mixing techniques within a multireference energy density functional (MR-EDF) framework. We considered predictions of two-particle separation energies from particle number projection or angular momentum projection with four different energy density functionals—a total of eight different MR-EDF models. We used a hierarchical Bayesian stacking framework with a Dirichlet prior distribution over weights together with an inverse log-ratio transform to enable positive correlations between different models. We found that Bayesian model mixing provides significantly improved predictions compared to the participating models. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2011

Electronic Health Management

Accelerated aging methodologies for electrolytic components have been designed and accelerated aging experiments have been carried out. The methodology is based on imposing electrical and/or thermal overstresses via electrical power cycling in order to mimic the real world operation behavior. Data are collected in-situ and offline in order to periodically characterize the devices' electrical performance as it ages. The data generated through these experiments are meant to provide capability for the validation of prognostic algorithms (both model-based and data-driven). Furthermore, the data allow validation of physics-based and empirical based degradation models for this type of capacitor. A first set of models and algorithms has been designed and tested on the data.

Celaya, Jose R.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Interactive Computing and Processing of NASA Land Surface Observations Using Google Earth Engine

Google's Earth Engine offers a "big data" approach to processing large volumes of NASA and other remote sensing products. h\ps://earthengine.google.com/ Interfaces include a Javascript or Python-based API, useful for accessing and processing over large periods of record for Landsat and MODIS observations. Other data sets are frequently added, including weather and climate model data sets, etc. Demonstrations here focus on exploratory efforts to perform land surface change detection related to severe weather, and other disaster events.

earth engine↗
NASA NTRS1992

A simple analytical function for bidirectional reflectance

A simple bidirectional reflectance model based on physical scattering laws is developed to calculate the bidirectional reflectance of a wide variety of surfaces. Chandrasekhar's radiative transfer solution, obtained for the anisotropically scattering semi-infinite medium, is used to compute the multiple-scattered radiances. However, since the radiative transfer solution does not take architectural effects into consideration, we adopt Hapke's (1986) approach and add an empirical term to explain the hot-spot phenomenon and use Cox and Munk's (1954) formulation to take into account the specular reflection. The physical parameters of the model are retrieved from bidirectional reflectance measurements. For each surface, only one set of model parameters is needed for application to all illumination and viewing geometries. The validity of the model is established by comparing the computed and measured reflectances for sets of viewing and illumination angles that were not included in the inversion algorithm. Good agreement is shown between the model-computed and the observed reflectances for dense prairie vegetation canopies, a sparse desert scrub community, a plowed agricultural field, and an alkali flat.

Ahmad, Suraiya P.↗
DOE OSTI2026

ARM Data-Oriented Metrics and Diagnostics Package for Climate Model Evaluation

A Python-based metrics and diagnostics package is currently being developed by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Infrastructure Team at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) to facilitate the use of long-term, high-frequency measurements from the ARM Facility in evaluating the regional climate simulation of clouds, radiation, and precipitation. This metrics and diagnostics package computes climatological means of targeted climate model simulation and generates tables and plots for comparing the model simulation with ARM observational data. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP) model data sets are also included in the package to enable model intercomparison as demonstrated in Zhang et al. (2017). The mean of the CMIP model can serve as a reference for individual models. Basic performance metrics are computed to measure the accuracy of mean state and variability of climate models. The evaluated physical quantities include cloud fraction, temperature, relative humidity, cloud liquid water path, total column water vapor, precipitation, sensible and latent heat fluxes, and radiative fluxes, with plan to extend to more fields, such as aerosol and microphysics properties. Process-oriented diagnostics focusing on individual cloud- and precipitation-related phenomena are also being developed for the evaluation and development of specific model physical parameterizations. The version 1.0 package is designed based on data collected at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) Research Facility, with the plan to extend to other ARM sites. The metrics and diagnostics package is currently built upon standard Python libraries and additional Python packages developed by DOE (such as CDMS and CDAT). The ARM metrics and diagnostic package is available publicly with the hope that it can serve as an easy entry point for climate modelers to compare their models with ARM data. In this report, we first present the input data, which constitutes the core content of the metrics and diagnostics package in section 2, and a user's guide documenting the workflow/structure of the version 1.0 codes, and including step-by-step instruction for running the package in section 3.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1974

Serpentuator simulation using MARSYAS

The Serpentuator is a serpentine teleoperator device for intraand extravehicular activities in space. It is simulated using the digital simulation software MARSYAS. Direct Simulation (DS) and Component-Connection Simulation (CCS) models are set up. The simulation execution time for the CCS model is less than that of the DS model by a factor of the order of 100. A visual display of the Serpentuator positions is obtained using AMTRAN.

Singh, S. P.↗
NASA NTRS1981

A tutorial on the CARE III approach to reliability modeling

The CARE 3 reliability model for aircraft avionics and control systems is described by utilizing a number of examples which frequently use state-of-the-art mathematical modeling techniques as a basis for their exposition. Behavioral decomposition followed by aggregration were used in an attempt to deal with reliability models with a large number of states. A comprehensive set of models of the fault-handling processes in a typical fault-tolerant system was used. These models were semi-Markov in nature, thus removing the usual restrictions of exponential holding times within the coverage model. The aggregate model is a non-homogeneous Markov chain, thus allowing the times to failure to posses Weibull-like distributions. Because of the departures from traditional models, the solution method employed is that of Kolmogorov integral equations, which are evaluated numerically.

Trivedi, K. S.↗
NASA NTRS2002

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Stars like our sun (initial masses between 0.8 to 8 solar masses) end their lives as swollen red giants surrounded by cool extended atmospheres. The nuclear reactions in their cores create carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, which are transported by convection to the outer envelope of the stellar atmosphere. As the star finally collapses to become a white dwarf, this envelope is expelled from the star to form a planetary nebula (PN) rich in organic molecules. The physics, dynamics, and chemistry of these nebulae are poorly understood and have implications not only for our understanding of the stellar life cycle but also for organic astrochemistry and the creation of prebiotic molecules in interstellar space. We are working toward generating three-dimensional models of planetary nebulae (PNe), which include the size, orientation, shape, expansion rate and mass distribution of the nebula. Such a reconstruction of a PN is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, the data consist of images obtained over time from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and spectra obtained from Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). These images are of course taken from a single viewpoint in space, which amounts to a very challenging tomographic reconstruction. Second, the fact that we have two disparate and orthogonal data types requires that we utilize a method that allows these data to be used together to obtain a solution. To address these first two challenges we employ Bayesian model estimation using a parameterized physical model that incorporates much prior information about the known physics of the PN. In our previous works we have found that the forward problem of the comprehensive model is extremely time consuming. To address this challenge, we explore the use of a set of hierarchical models, which allow us to estimate increasingly more detailed sets of model parameters. These hierarchical models of increasing complexity are akin to scientific theories of increasing sophistication, with each new model/theory being a refinement of a previous one by either incorporating additional prior information or by introducing a new set of parameters to model an entirely new phenomenon. We apply these models to both a simulated and a real ellipsoidal PN to initially estimate the position, angular size, and orientation of the nebula as a two-dimensional object and use these estimates to later examine its three-dimensional properties. The efficiency/accuracy tradeoffs of the techniques are studied to determine the advantages and disadvantages of employing a set of hierarchical models over a single comprehensive model.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Hierarchies of Models: Toward Understanding Planetary Nebulae

Stars like our sun (initial masses between 0.8 to 8 solar masses) end their lives as swollen red giants surrounded by cool extended atmospheres. The nuclear reactions in their cores create carbon, nitrogen and oxygen, which are transported by convection to the outer envelope of the stellar atmosphere. As the star finally collapses to become a white dwarf, this envelope is expelled from the star to form a planetary nebula (PN) rich in organic molecules. The physics, dynamics, and chemistry of these nebulae are poorly understood and have implications not only for our understanding of the stellar life cycle but also for organic astrochemistry and the creation of prebiotic molecules in interstellar space. We are working toward generating three-dimensional models of planetary nebulae (PNe), which include the size, orientation, shape, expansion rate and mass distribution of the nebula. Such a reconstruction of a PN is a challenging problem for several reasons. First, the data consist of images obtained over time from the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) and spectra obtained from Kitt Peak National Observatory (KPNO) and Cerro Tololo Inter-American Observatory (CTIO). These images are of course taken from a single viewpoint in space, which amounts to a very challenging tomographic reconstruction. Second, the fact that we have two disparate and orthogonal data types requires that we utilize a method that allows these data to be used together to obtain a solution. To address these first two challenges we employ Bayesian model estimation using a parameterized physical model that incorporates much prior information about the known physics of the PN. In our previous works we have found that the forward problem of the comprehensive model is extremely time consuming. To address this challenge, we explore the use of a set of hierarchical models, which allow us to estimate increasingly more detailed sets of model parameters. These hierarchical models of increasing complexity are akin to scientific theories of increasing sophistication, with each new model/theory being a refinement of a previous one by either incorporating additional prior information or by introducing a new set of parameters to model an entirely new phenomenon. We apply these models to both a simulated and a real ellipsoidal PN to initially estimate the position, angular size, and orientation of the nebula as a two-dimensional object and use these estimates to later examine its three-dimensional properties. The efficiency/accuracy tradeoffs of the techniques are studied to determine the advantages and disadvantages of employing a set of hierarchical models over a single comprehensive model.

Knuth, Kevin H.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Long-wave baroclinic instability in the troposphere and stratosphere with spherical geometry

The most unstable normal modes are obtained for a global, quasi-geostrophic and spectral-form atmospheric model that includes wavenumbers one through six. In a first set of model calculations, the basic state represents Northern Hemisphere winter solstice conditions, whose long waves are deep modes having maximum kinetic energy in the stratosphere. These internal modes exist even in the presence of a stratospheric wind minimum, but propagate vertically into the stratosphere only north of this minimum, at the latitudes of the polar jet. The basic state for a second set of calculations is the axisymmetric solution corresponding to radiative equilibrium, with large vertical wind shear and all modes being essentially external, tropospheric Charney modes.

Straus, D. M.↗