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At least 163 records · Page 9

Estimation of parameters in linear structural relationships: Sensitivity to the choice of the ratio of error variances

Maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in linear structural relationships under normality assumptions requires knowledge of one or more of the model parameters if no replication is available. The most common assumption added to the model definition is that the ratio of the error variances of the response and predictor variates is known. The use of asymptotic formulae for variances and mean squared errors as a function of sample size and the assumed value for the error variance ratio is investigated.

Lakshminarayanan, M. Y.↗

Estimation of parameters in linear structural relationships Sensitivity to the choice of the ratio of error variances

Maximum likelihood estimation of parameters in linear structural relationships under normality assumptions requires knowledge of one or more of the model parameters if no replication is available. The most common assumption added to the model definition is that the ratio of the error variances of the response and predictor variates is known. This paper investigates the use of asymptotic formulae for variances and mean squared errors as a function of sample size and the assumed value for the error variance ratio.

Lakshminarayanan, M. Y.↗

Accuracy Criterion for Structural Calculations

Simple method of establishing an accuracy criterion based on comparing allowable errors and modeling errors. On basis of comparison, amounts of change required to improve modeling error used in convergence criterion.

Chen, J. C.↗

Vegetation Monitoring Optimization with Normalized Difference Vegetation Index and Evapotranspiration Using Remote Sensing Measurements and Land Surface Models Over East Africa

The majority of people in East Africa rely on the agro-pastoral system for their livelihood, which is highly vulnerable to droughts and flooding. Agro-pastoral droughts are endemic to the region and are considered the main natural hazard that contributes to food insecurity. Drought begins with rainfall deficit, gradually leading to soil moisture deficit, higher land surface temperature, and finally impacts to vegetation growth. Therefore, monitoring vegetation conditions is essential in understanding the progression of drought, potential effects on food security, and providing early warning information needed for drought mitigation decisions. Because vegetation processes couple the land and atmosphere, monitoring of vegetation conditions requires consideration of both water provision and demand. While there is consensus in using either the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) or evapotranspiration(ET) for vegetation monitoring, a comprehensive assessment optimizing the use of both has not yet been done. Moreover, the evaluation methods for understanding the relationships between NDVI and ET for vegetation monitoring are also limited. Taking these gaps into account we have developed a framework to optimize vegetation monitoring using both NDVI and ET by identifying where they perform the best by using triple collocation and cross-correlation methods. We estimated the random error structure in Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) NDVI; ET from the Operational Simplified Surface Energy Balance (SSEBop) model; and ET from land surface models (LSMs). LSM ET and SSEBop ET have been found to be better indicators for vegetation monitoring during extreme drought events, while NDVI could provide better information on vegetation condition during wetter than normal conditions. The random error structures of these variables suggest that LSM ET is most likely to provide important information for vegetation monitoring over low and high ends of the vegetation fraction areas. Over moderate vegetative areas, any of these variables could provide important vegetation information for drought characterization and food security assessments. While this study provides a framework for optimizing vegetation monitoring for drought and food security assessments over East Africa, the framework can be adopted to optimize vegetation monitoring over any other drought and food insecure region of the world.

triple collocation↗

Characterizing Spatiotemporal Uncertainty in Interpolated Meteorological Data

Interpolated meteorological data invariably contain errors. These errors have structure in time and space, particularly autocorrelation, which can cause the effects of errors to compound when model outputs are aggregated temporally or spatially. One way to account for this uncertainty is with a probabilistic model from which samples can be drawn that are coherent with respect to underlying spatial and temporal covariance structure. This work describes a probabilistic method for spatial interpolation of point-wise meteorological time series. Observational data from weather stations are generally sparse in space and dense in time (but sometimes missing). The method works by projecting time series onto orthogonal basis vectors and spatially interpolating each resulting component independently. Under suitable assumptions, and data transformations to better satisfy those assumptions, Gaussian process regression provides a complete description of the joint predictive distribution over a Gaussian random field. Spatiotemporally coherent realizations are generated as the sum of conditional (spatial) simulations of each orthogonal (temporal) component. Data-derived and generic orthogonal bases are considered. In addition to spatial interpolation, imputation of missing observational data is examined. The method is applied using near-surface air temperature over the Western United States and validated by comparing theoretical versus actual coverage of predictive distributions and analyzing the degree to which spatial and temporal covariance structure is reproduced. Computational considerations, relating to conditional simulation of random fields, are also addressed.

Conor T Doherty↗

Computational Methods for Structural Mechanics and Dynamics, part 1

The structural analysis methods research has several goals. One goal is to develop analysis methods that are general. This goal of generality leads naturally to finite-element methods, but the research will also include other structural analysis methods. Another goal is that the methods be amenable to error analysis; that is, given a physical problem and a mathematical model of that problem, an analyst would like to know the probable error in predicting a given response quantity. The ultimate objective is to specify the error tolerances and to use automated logic to adjust the mathematical model or solution strategy to obtain that accuracy. A third goal is to develop structural analysis methods that can exploit parallel processing computers. The structural analysis methods research will focus initially on three types of problems: local/global nonlinear stress analysis, nonlinear transient dynamics, and tire modeling.

Stroud, W. Jefferson↗

Integrated Modeling for the Next Generation Space Telescope "Yardstick" Concept

The so-called NASA "Yardstick" design concept for the Next Generation Space Telescope presents unique challenges for systems-level analysis. Simulations that integrate controls, optics, thermal, and structural models are required to evaluate baseline performance, study design sensitivities, and perform design optimization. An integrated modeling approach was chosen using a combination of commercial off-the-shelf and "in-house" developed codes. The resulting capability provides a foundation for linear and non-linear analysis, using both the time and frequency-domain methods. It readily allows various combinations of design parameters and environmental loads to be evaluated directly in terms of key science-related metrics, in this case the scalar RMS (root mean square) line-of-sight and RMS wavefront errors. This presentation first addresses the development of the component, or discipline, models for the Yardstick design. It will then proceed to present the integration of the component models, using linear-systems approaches, in order to support two of the most critical baseline performance analyses: jitter and thermal-elastic stability of the optical telescope assembly (OTA). The results of the jitter analysis indicate that disturbances from the reaction wheels coupled with the lightly-damped and highly-flexible structure present significant challenges to the baseline line-of-sight control architecture. Vibration isolation will be required to meet jitter error requirements. The results of the thermal-elastic analysis indicate that the mirror segment displacements due to ground-to-orbit cool-down of the telescope are within the expected capture range of the segment rigid-body control actuators. This means we will be able to align and phase the primary mirror. However, the results for the analysis of the thermal transient response following an attitude maneuver (slew) show that this telescope design is not sufficiently stable, passively, to meet the wavefront error requirements. Structural re-design is one possibility; alternatively, active thermal control of the OTA may be considered. The Yardstick integrated models were successfully used to demonstrate the feasibility of two thermal control strategies.

Mosier, Gary E.↗

Evaluation of optimal control type models for the human gunner in an Anti-Aircraft Artillery (AAA) system

The selection of the structure of optimal control type models for the human gunner in an anti aircraft artillery system is considered. Several structures within the LQG framework may be formulated. Two basic types are considered: (1) kth derivative controllers; and (2) proportional integral derivative (P-I-D) controllers. It is shown that a suitable criterion for model structure determination can be based on the ensemble statistics of the tracking error. In the case when the ensemble tracking steady state error is zero, it is suggested that a P-I-D controller formulation be used in preference to the kth derivative controller.

Phatak, A. V.↗

Monthly mean forecast experiments with the GISS model

The GISS general circulation model was used to compute global monthly mean forecasts for January 1973, 1974, and 1975 from initial conditions on the first day of each month and constant sea surface temperatures. Forecasts were evaluated in terms of global and hemispheric energetics, zonally averaged meridional and vertical profiles, forecast error statistics, and monthly mean synoptic fields. Although it generated a realistic mean meridional structure, the model did not adequately reproduce the observed interannual variations in the large scale monthly mean energetics and zonally averaged circulation. The monthly mean sea level pressure field was not predicted satisfactorily, but annual changes in the Icelandic low were simulated. The impact of temporal sea surface temperature variations on the forecasts was investigated by comparing two parallel forecasts for January 1974, one using climatological ocean temperatures and the other observed daily ocean temperatures. The use of daily updated sea surface temperatures produced no discernible beneficial effect.

Spar, J.↗

Finite element solution for beams using an element averaging technique

The article investigates the error in the computation of natural frequency through finite element models of the structures when elements of unequal length are chosen and then goes on to suggest an averaging technique for unequal length elements, with different structural properties. Using the element averaging technique, a typical structure has been analysed for its natural frequencies and the results are described.

Bhat, B. R.↗

Gear noise, vibration, and diagnostic studies at NASA Lewis Research Center

The NASA Lewis Research Center and the U.S. Army Aviation Systems Command are involved in a joint research program to advance the technology of rotorcraft transmissions. This program consists of analytical as well as experimental efforts to achieve the overall goals of reducing weight, noise, and vibration, while increasing life and reliability. Recent analytical activities are highlighted in the areas of gear noise, vibration, and diagnostics performed in-house and through NASA and U.S. Army sponsored grants and contracts. These activities include studies of gear tooth profiles to reduce transmission error and vibration as well as gear housing and rotordynamic modeling to reduce structural vibration transmission and noise radiation, and basic research into current gear failure diagnostic methodologies. Results of these activities are presented along with an overview of near term research plans in the gear noise, vibration, and diagnostics area.

Zakrajsek, James J.↗

Gear noise, vibration, and diagnostic studies at NASA Lewis Research Center

The NASA Lewis Research Center and the U.S. Army Aviation Systems Command are involved in a joint research program to advance the technology of rotorcraft transmissions. This program consists of analytical as well as experimental efforts to achieve the overall goals of reducing weight, noise, and vibration, while increasing life and reliability. Recent analytical activities are highlighted in the areas of gear noise, vibration, and diagnostics performed in-house and through NASA and U.S. Army sponsored grants and contracts. These activities include studies of gear tooth profiles to reduce transmission error and vibration as well as gear housing and rotordynamic modeling to reduce structural vibration and transmission and noise radiation, and basic research into current gear failure diagnostic methodologies. Results of these activities are presented along with an overview of near-term research plans in the gear noise, vibration, and diagnostics area.

Zakrajsek, J. J.↗

Computational technology for high-temperature aerospace structures

The status and some recent developments of computational technology for high-temperature aerospace structures are summarized. Discussion focuses on a number of aspects including: goals of computational technology for high-temperature structures; computational material modeling; life prediction methodology; computational modeling of high-temperature composites; error estimation and adaptive improvement strategies; strategies for solution of fluid flow/thermal/structural problems; and probabilistic methods and stochastic modeling approaches, integrated analysis and design. Recent trends in high-performance computing environment are described and the research areas which have high potential for meeting future technological needs are identified.

Noor, A. K.↗

Experimental measurement and theoretical modeling of microwave scattering and the structure of the sea surface influencing radar observations from space

The electromagnetic (EM) bias 'epsilon' is an error present in radar altimetry of the ocean due to the nonuniform reflection from wave troughs and crests. The EM bias is defined as the difference between the mean reflecting surface and the mean sea surface. A knowledge of the EM bias is necessary to permit error reduction in mean sea level measurements by satellite radar altimeters. Direct measurements of the EM bias were made from a Shell Offshore oil production platform in the Gulf of Mexico for a six month period during 1989 and 1990. Measurements of the EM bias were made at 5 and 14 Ghz. During the EM bias experiments by Melville et al., a wire wave gauge was used to obtain the modulation of the high frequency waves by the low frequency waves. It became apparent that the EM bias was primarily caused by the modulation of the short waves. This was reported by Arnold et al. The EM bias is explained using physical optics scattering and an empirical model for the short wave modulation. Measurements of the short wave modulation using a wire wave gauge demonstrated a linear dependence of the normalized bias on the short wave modulation strength, M. The theory accurately predicts this dependence by the relation epsilon = -alphaMH sub 1/3. The wind speed dependence of the normalized bias is explained by the dependence of the short wave modulation strength on the wind speed. While other effects such as long wave tilt and curvature will have an effect on the bias, the primary cause of the bias is shown to be due to the short wave modulation. This report will present a theory using physical optics scattering and an empirical model of the short wave modulation to estimate the EM bias. The estimated EM bias will be compared to measurements at C and Ku bands.

Arnold, David↗

Application of symbolic computations to the constitutive modeling of structural materials

In applications involving elevated temperatures, the derivation of mathematical expressions (constitutive equations) describing the material behavior can be quite time consuming, involved and error-prone. Therefore intelligent application of symbolic systems to faciliate this tedious process can be of significant benefit. Presented here is a problem oriented, self contained symbolic expert system, named SDICE, which is capable of efficiently deriving potential based constitutive models in analytical form. This package, running under DOE MACSYMA, has the following features: (1) potential differentiation (chain rule), (2) tensor computations (utilizing index notation) including both algebraic and calculus; (3) efficient solution of sparse systems of equations; (4) automatic expression substitution and simplification; (5) back substitution of invariant and tensorial relations; (6) the ability to form the Jacobian and Hessian matrix; and (7) a relational data base. Limited aspects of invariant theory were also incorporated into SDICE due to the utilization of potentials as a starting point and the desire for these potentials to be frame invariant (objective). The uniqueness of SDICE resides in its ability to manipulate expressions in a general yet pre-defined order and simplify expressions so as to limit expression growth. Results are displayed, when applicable, utilizing index notation. SDICE was designed to aid and complement the human constitutive model developer. A number of examples are utilized to illustrate the various features contained within SDICE. It is expected that this symbolic package can and will provide a significant incentive to the development of new constitutive theories.

Arnold, Steven M.↗

Radial alignment simulation of solar wind streams observed by Pioneers 10 and 11 in 1974

A particularly favorable radial lineup between spacecraft in Earth orbit and Pioneers 10 and 11 (near the ecliptic plane at approximately 5.5 AU and approximately 4.5 AU, respectively) occurred in mid-1974, when the solar corona was in a stable and well-defined warped-dipole configuration. The radial alignment study reported here differs from previous applications of the technique in two respects: (1) It is the first time a two-dimensional (2-D) MHD model has been tested over such a lengthy propagation interval; the 2-D capability is crucial for treatment of the nonradial shearing motions occurring across the stream interface. (2) The three-dimensional (3-D) structure observed in the white light corona at that time is related to the systematic patterns of nonradial flow deflections appearing at the Pioneer corotating interaction region (CIR) fronts. Comparison of predicted and observed flows for pairs of streams in two successive rotations reveals that when the parent coronal hole projects far across the solar equator in a predominantly north-south orientation (i.e., nearest the 2-D idealization), the mapping is accurate down to details of the flow structures. But where the spacecraft tracks along a latitudinal boundary of a hole or the associated stream front is inclined at a shallow angle to the equator, the numerical projections deviate systematically from the observations. Among the sources of error are 3-D dynamical interactions neglected in the model, differential rotation effects, and slow temporal evolution of the coronal structures. A characteristic pattern of north-south and east-west deflections indicative of the 3-D geometry appears across the CIRs, but these patterns evidently reflect primarily the local, as opposed to global, orientation of the 3-D stream fronts. Such patterns appear common in CIRs observed by Pioneer during this period. These findings thus hold special relevance for the analysis of Ulysses observations, since the present coronal configuration is similar to that of 1974.

Pizzo, V. J.↗

Analysis of modeling errors in system identification

This paper is concerned with the identification of a system in the presence of several error sources. Following some basic definitions, the notion of 'near-equivalence in probability' is introduced using the concept of near-equivalence between a model and process. Necessary and sufficient conditions for the identifiability of system parameters are given. The effect of structural error on the parameter estimates for both deterministic and stochastic cases are considered.

Hadaegh, F. Y.↗

Analysis of a Split-Plot Experimental Design Applied to a Low-Speed Wind Tunnel Investigation

A procedure to analyze a split-plot experimental design featuring two input factors, two levels of randomization, and two error structures in a low-speed wind tunnel investigation of a small-scale model of a fighter airplane configuration is described in this report. Standard commercially-available statistical software was used to analyze the test results obtained in a randomization-restricted environment often encountered in wind tunnel testing. The input factors were differential horizontal stabilizer incidence and the angle of attack. The response variables were the aerodynamic coefficients of lift, drag, and pitching moment. Using split-plot terminology, the whole plot, or difficult-to-change, factor was the differential horizontal stabilizer incidence, and the subplot, or easy-to-change, factor was the angle of attack. The whole plot and subplot factors were both tested at three levels. Degrees of freedom for the whole plot error were provided by replication in the form of three blocks, or replicates, which were intended to simulate three consecutive days of wind tunnel facility operation. The analysis was conducted in three stages, which yielded the estimated mean squares, multiple regression function coefficients, and corresponding tests of significance for all individual terms at the whole plot and subplot levels for the three aerodynamic response variables. The estimated regression functions included main effects and two-factor interaction for the lift coefficient, main effects, two-factor interaction, and quadratic effects for the drag coefficient, and only main effects for the pitching moment coefficient.

Erickson, Gary E.↗