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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2006

A Mission to Observe Ice in Clouds from Space

To date there have been multiple satellite missions to observe and retrieve cloud top properties and the liquid in, and precipitation from, clouds. There are currently a few missions that attempt to measure cloud ice properties as a byproduct of other observations. However, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. This presentation will describe the Submillimeter-wave InfraRed Ice Cloud Experiment (SIRICE) concept, a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the infrared and submillimeter-wave region (183-874 GHz). If successful, this mission will bridge the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. The brightness temperatures at submillimeter-wave frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. Scientific justification and the SIRICE approach to measuring ice water path and particle size that span a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems will be presented.

Ackerman, S.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Evaluation and Intercomparison of Wildfire Smoke Forecasts from Multiple Modeling Systems for the 2019 Williams Flats Fire

Wildfire smoke is one of the most significant concerns of human and environmental health, associated with its substantial impacts on air quality, weather, and climate. However, biomass burning emissions and smoke remain among the largest sources of uncertainties in air quality forecasts. In this study, we evaluate the smoke emissions and plume forecasts from 12 state-of-the-art air quality forecasting systems during the Williams Flats fire in Washington State, US, August 2019, which was intensively observed during the Fire Influence on Regional to Global Environments and Air Quality (FIREX-AQ) field campaign. Model forecasts with lead times within 1 d are intercompared under the same framework based on observations from multiple platforms to reveal their performance regarding fire emissions, aerosol optical depth (AOD), surface PM2.5, plume injection, and surface PM2.5 to AOD ratio. The comparison of smoke organic carbon (OC) emissions suggests a large range of daily totals among the models, with a factor of 20 to 50. Limited representations of the diurnal patterns and day-to-day variations of emissions highlight the need to incorporate new methodologies to predict the temporal evolution and reduce uncertainty of smoke emission estimates. The evaluation of smoke AOD (sAOD) forecasts suggests overall underpredictions in both the magnitude and smoke plume area for nearly all models, although the high-resolution models have a better representation of the fine-scale structures of smoke plumes. The models driven by fire radiative power (FRP)-based fire emissions or assimilating satellite AOD data generally outperform the others. Additionally, limitations of the persistence assumption used when predicting smoke emissions are revealed by substantial underpredictions of sAOD on 8 August 2019, mainly over the transported smoke plumes, owing to the underestimated emissions on 7 August. In contrast, the surface smoke PM2.5 (sPM2.5) forecasts show both positive and negative overall biases for these models, with most members presenting more considerable diurnal variations of sPM2.5. Overpredictions of sPM2.5 are found for the models driven by FRP-based emissions during nighttime, suggesting the necessity to improve vertical emission allocation within and above the planetary boundary layer (PBL). Smoke injection heights are further evaluated using the NASA Langley Research Center's Differential Absorption High Spectral Resolution Lidar (DIAL-HSRL) data collected during the flight observations. As the fire became stronger over 3–8 August, the plume height became deeper, with a day-to-day range of about 2–9 km a.g.l. However, narrower ranges are found for all models, with a tendency of overpredicting the plume heights for the shallower injection transects and underpredicting for the days showing deeper injections. The misrepresented plume injection heights lead to inaccurate vertical plume allocations along the transects corresponding to transported smoke that is 1 d old. Discrepancies in model performance for surface PM2.5 and AOD are further suggested by the evaluation of their ratio, which cannot be compensated for by solely adjusting the smoke emissions but are more attributable to model representations of plume injections, besides other possible factors including the evolution of PBL depths and aerosol optical property assumptions. By consolidating multiple forecast systems, these results provide strategic insight on pathways to improve smoke forecasts.

AOD↗
DOE OSTI2021

22 Ne Phase Separation as a Solution to the Ultramassive White Dwarf Cooling Anomaly

The precise astrometric measurements of the Gaia Data Release 2 have opened the door to detailed tests of the predictions of white dwarf cooling models. Significant discrepancies between theory and observations have been identified, the most striking affecting ultramassive white dwarfs. Cheng et al. found that a small fraction of white dwarfs on the so-called Q branch must experience an extra cooling delay of ~8 Gyr not predicted by current models. 22 Ne phase separation in a crystallizing C/O white dwarf can lead to a distillation process that efficiently transports 22 Ne toward its center, thereby releasing a considerable amount of gravitational energy. Here, using state-of-the-art Monte Carlo simulations, we show that this mechanism can largely resolve the ultramassive cooling anomaly if the delayed population consists of white dwarfs with moderately above-average 22 Ne abundances. We also argue that 22 Ne phase separation can account for the smaller cooling delay currently missing for models of white dwarfs with more standard compositions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine learning based algorithms for uncertainty quantification in numerical weather prediction models

Complex numerical weather prediction models incorporate a variety of physical processes, each described by multiple alternative physical schemes with specific parameters. The selection of the physical schemes and the choice of the corresponding physical parameters during model configuration can significantly impact the accuracy of model forecasts. There is no combination of physical schemes that works best for all times, at all locations, and under all conditions. It is therefore of considerable interest to understand the interplay between the choice of physics and the accuracy of the resulting forecasts under different conditions. This paper demonstrates the use of machine learning techniques to study the uncertainty in numerical weather prediction models due to the interaction of multiple physical processes. The first problem addressed herein is the estimation of systematic model errors in output quantities of interest at future times, and the use of this information to improve the model forecasts. The second problem considered is the identification of those specific physical processes that contribute most to the forecast uncertainty in the quantity of interest under specified meteorological conditions. In order to address these questions we employ two machine learning approaches, random forests and artificial neural networks. The discrepancies between model results and observations at past times are used to learn the relationships between the choice of physical processes and the resulting forecast errors. Numerical experiments are carried out with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. The output quantity of interest is the model precipitation, a variable that is both extremely important and very challenging to forecast. The physical processes under consideration include various micro-physics schemes, cumulus parameterizations, short wave, and long wave radiation schemes. The experiments demonstrate the strong potential of machine learning approaches to aid the study of model errors.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS1997

Understanding the Latitude Structure of Nitric Oxide in the Mesosphere and Lower Thermosphere

The goal of the proposed work was to understand the latitude structure of nitric oxide in the mesosphere and lower thermosphere. The problem was portrayed by a clear difference between predictions of the nitric oxide distribution from chemical/dynamical models and data from observations made by the Solar Mesosphere Explorer (SMEE) in the early to mid eighties. The data exhibits a flat latitude structure of NO, the models tend to produce at equatorial maximum. The first task was to use the UARS-HALOE data to confirm the SME observations. The purpose of this first phase was to verify the UARS-NO structure is consistent with the SME data. The next task was to determine the cause of the discrepancy between modeled and observed nitric oxide latitude structure. The result from the final phase indicated that the latitude structure in the Photo-Electron (PE) production rate was the most important.

Fuller-Rowell, T.J.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Observing Ice in Clouds from Space

There are many satellite observations of cloud top properties and the liquid and rain content of clouds, however, we do not yet quantitatively understand the processes that control the water budget of the upper troposphere where ice is the predominant phase, and how these processes are linked to precipitation processes and the radiative energy budget. The ice in clouds in the upper troposphere either melts into rain or is detrained, and persists, as cirrus clouds affecting the hydrological and energy cycle, respectively. Fully modeling the Earth's climate and improving weather and climate forecasts requires accurate satellite measurements of various cloud properties at the temporal and spatial scales of cloud processes. These properties include cloud horizontal and vertical structure, cloud water content and some measure of particle sizes and shapes. The uncertainty in knowledge of these ice characteristics is reflected in the large discrepancies in model simulations of the upper tropospheric water budget. Model simulations are sensitive to the partition of ice between precipitation and outflow processes, i.e., to the parameterization of ice clouds and ice processes. One barrier to achieving accurate global ice cloud properties is the lack of adequate observations at millimeter and submillimeter wavelengths (183-874 GHz). Recent advances in instrumentation have allowed for the development and implementation of an airborne submillimeter-wave radiometer. The brightness temperatures at these frequencies are especially sensitive to cirrus ice particle sizes (because they are comparable to the wavelength). This allows for more accurate ice water path estimates when multiple channels are used to probe into the cloud layers. Further, submillimeter wavelengths offer simplicity in the retrieval algorithms because they do not probe into the liquid and near surface portions of clouds, thus requiring only one term of the radiative transfer equation (ice scattering) to relate brightness temperatures to ice. The next step is a satellite mission designed to acquire global Earth radiance measurements in the submillimeter-wave region, thus bridging the measurement gap between microwave sounders and shorter-wavelength infrared and visible sensors. This presentation provides scientific justification and an approach to measuring ice water path and particle size from a satellite platform that spans a range encompassing both the hydrologically active and radiatively active components of cloud systems.

Ackerman, S.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Black Carbon Absorption at the Global Scale Is Affected by Particle-Scale Diversity in Composition

Atmospheric black carbon (BC) exerts a strong, but uncertain, warming effect on the climate. BC that is coated with non-absorbing material absorbs more strongly than the same amount of BC in an uncoated particle, but the magnitude of this absorption enhancement (E(sub abs)) is not well constrained. Modelling studies and laboratory measurements have found stronger absorption enhancement than has been observed in the atmosphere. Here, using a particle-resolved aerosol model to simulate diverse BC populations, we show that absorption is overestimated by as much as a factor of two if diversity is neglected and population-averaged composition is assumed across all BC-containing particles. If, instead, composition diversity is resolved, we find E(sub abs) = 1 - 1.5 at low relative humidity, consistent with ambient observations. This study offers not only an explanation for the discrepancy between modelled and observed absorption enhancement, but also demonstrates how particle-scale simulations can be used to develop relationships for global-scale models.

Climate models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Bi-fidelity modeling of uncertain and partially unknown systems using DeepONets

Recent advances in modeling large-scale, complex physical systems have shifted research focuses towards data-driven techniques. However, generating datasets by simulating complex systems can require significant computational resources. Similarly, acquiring experimental datasets can prove difficult. For these systems, often computationally inexpensive, but in general inaccurate models, known as the low-fidelity models, are available. Here in this paper, we propose a bi-fidelity modeling approach for complex physical systems, where we model the discrepancy between the true system's response and a low-fidelity response in the presence of a small training dataset from the true system's response using a deep operator network, a neural network architecture suitable for approximating nonlinear operators. We apply the approach to systems that have parametric uncertainty and are partially unknown. Three numerical examples are used to show the efficacy of the proposed approach to model uncertain and partially unknown physical systems.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Toward engineering lattice structures with the material point method (MPM)

This study examines the potential of two variants of the material point method—the generalized interpolation material point (GIMP) and dual domain material point (DDMP) methods—in developing a robust computational framework for engineering lattice structures under different loading conditions. The study begins with assessing the ability of the two methods in predicting elastic buckling phenomena using column geometries with and without initial geometric imperfections. The results indicate that both methods effectively capture buckling phenomena when initial geometric imperfections are introduced. After this verification step, we create several models of tetrahedral lattice structures with varying strut diameter and orientation and subject them to quasi-static loading. We then validate the numerical results using laboratory test results. The results show that, while both methods accurately predict load–displacement curves in the pre-buckling regime, their predictive capabilities diminish in the post-buckling regime. Through visual comparison between the numerical and experimental deformed shapes, it appears that the discrepancies between model and experimental results are attributed to initial geometric imperfections in the lattices that occurred during 3D printing. We then establish a second set of lattice models where different types of initial geometric imperfections are considered. The results from these models show that imperfections have a negligible influence in the pre-buckling regime but affect the behavior considerably in the post-buckling regime. As a final step in this work, we subject the lattice models to impact loading and employ hypothetical soft and stiff materials. These results show that the lattice stiffness, which depends on material stiffness, strut diameter, and orientation, significantly influences the ability of a lattice structure to resist impact. In particular, we find that a stiffer lattice (i.e., one made with a stiff material and thicker struts) is capable of absorbing more energy than a softer one during impact. Although material nonlinearities, inelasticity, and detailed contact formulations are not considered in this study, the findings obtained herein lay the groundwork for engineering lattice structures under extreme loading conditions through a simulation-driven framework based on particle-based methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Conformer-Dependent Chemistry: Experimental Product Branching of the Vinyl Alcohol + OH + O 2 Reaction

The concentration of formic acid in Earth's tropo-sphere is underestimated by detailed chemical models compared to field observations. Phototautomerization of acetaldehyde to its less stable tautomer vinyl alcohol, followed by the OH-initiated oxidation of vinyl alcohol, has been proposed as a missing source of formic acid that improves the agreement between models and field measurements. Theoretical investigations of the OH + vinyl alcohol reaction in excess O 2 conclude that OH addition to the alpha carbon of vinyl alcohol produces formaldehyde + formic acid + OH, whereas OH addition to the β site leads to glycoaldehyde + HO 2 . Furthermore, these studies predict that the conformeric structure of vinyl alcohol controls the reaction pathway, with the anti-conformer of vinyl alcohol promoting α OH addition, whereas the syn-conformer promotes β addition. However, the two theoretical studies reach different conclusions regarding which set of products dominate. We studied this reaction using time-resolved multiplexed photoionization mass spectrometry to quantify the product branching fractions. Our results, supported by a detailed kinetic model, conclude that the glycoaldehyde product channel (arising mostly from syn-vinyl alcohol) dominates over formic acid production with a 3.6:1.0 branching ratio. Additionally, this result supports the conclusion of Lei et al. that conformer-dependent hydrogen bonding at the transition state for OH-addition controls the reaction outcome. As a result, tropospheric oxidation of vinyl alcohol creates less formic acid than recently thought, increasing again the discrepancy between models and field observations of Earth's formic acid budget.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning for detection of 3D features using sparse x-ray tomographic reconstruction

In many inertial confinement fusion (ICF) experiments, the neutron yield and other parameters cannot be completely accounted for with one and two dimensional models. This discrepancy suggests that there are three dimensional effects that may be significant. Sources of these effects include defects in the shells and defects in shell interfaces, the fill tube of the capsule, and the joint feature in double shell targets. Due to their ability to penetrate materials, x rays are used to capture the internal structure of objects. Methods such as computational tomography use x-ray radiographs from hundreds of projections, in order to reconstruct a three dimensional model of the object. In experimental environments, such as the National Ignition Facility and Omega-60, the availability of these views is scarce, and in many cases only consists of a single line of sight. Mathematical reconstruction of a 3D object from sparse views is an ill-posed inverse problem. These types of problems are typically solved by utilizing prior information. Neural networks have been used for the task of 3D reconstruction as they are capable of encoding and leveraging this prior information. We utilize half a dozen, different convolutional neural networks to produce different 3D representations of ICF implosions from the experimental data. Deep supervision is utilized to train a neural network to produce high-resolution reconstructions. These representations are used to track 3D features of the capsules, such as the ablator, inner shell, and the joint between shell hemispheres. Machine learning, supplemented by different priors, is a promising method for 3D reconstructions in ICF and x-ray radiography, in general.

Wolfe, Bradley T. (ORCID:0000000268301614)↗
NASA NTRS2020

Bias in CMIP6 Models as Compared to Observed Regional Dimming and Brightening

Anthropogenic aerosol emissions have increased considerably over the last century, but climate effects and quantification of the emissions are highly uncertain as one goes back in time. This uncertainty is partly due to a lack of observations in the pre-satellite era, making the observations we do have before 1990 additionally valuable. Aerosols suspended in the atmosphere scatter and absorb incoming solar radiation and thereby alter the Earth's surface energy balance. Previous studies show that Earth system models (ESMs) do not adequately represent surface energy fluxes over the historical era. We investigated global and regional aerosol effects over the time period 1961–2014 by looking at surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR). We used observations from ground stations as well as multiple experiments from eight ESMs participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Version 6 (CMIP6). Our results show that this subset of models reproduces the observed transient SDSR well in Europe but poorly in China. We suggest that this may be attributed to missing emissions of sulfur dioxide in China, sulfur dioxide being a precursor to sulfate, which is a highly reflective aerosol and responsible for more reflective clouds. The emissions of sulfur dioxide used in the models do not show a temporal pattern that could explain observed SDSR evolution over China. The results from various aerosol emission perturbation experiments from DAMIP, RFMIP and AerChemMIP show that only simulations containing anthropogenic aerosol emissions show dimming, even if the dimming is underestimated. Simulated clear-sky and all-sky SDSR do not differ greatly, suggesting that cloud cover changes are not a dominant cause of the biased SDSR evolution in the simulations. Therefore we suggest that the discrepancy between modeled and observed SDSR evolution is partly caused by erroneous aerosol and aerosol precursor emission inventories. This is an important finding as it may help interpret whether ESMs reproduce the historical climate evolution for the right or wrong reason.

surface downwelling shortwave radiation (SDSR)↗
DOE OSTI2022

Kinetic model development and Bayesian uncertainty quantification for the complete reduction of Fe-based oxygen carriers with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 for chemical looping combustion

In this work, three kinetic models are developed and calibrated for the complete multi-step reduction of an Fe-based oxygen carrier (OC) particle with CH 4 , CO, and H 2 , using data from thermogravimetric analysis. The complete reduction rate profiles exhibit complex dynamics whose trajectory is significantly different depending on the reducing gas. A Bayesian model building and parameter estimation framework is applied for simultaneous parameter and model structure uncertainty quantification. The final models show excellent agreement between model predictions and calibration data, as well as new data not used for calibration (for the reduction of the OC with CH 4 ). Parameter uncertainty is quantified by determining joint posterior distribution, and model structure uncertainty is addressed by incorporating Gaussian process stochastic functions (represented by Bayesian smoothing splines) into the kinetic models. The final kinetic models with discrepancy functions are readily employable in equation-oriented simulation and optimization platforms.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
NASA NTRS2001

Inorganic Chlorine Partitioning in the Summer Lower Stratosphere: Modeled and Measured [ClONO2/HCl] During POLARIS

We examine inorganic chlorine (Cly) partitioning in the summer lower stratosphere using in situ ER-2 aircraft observations made during the Photochemistry of Ozone Loss in the Arctic Region in Summer (POLARIS) campaign. New steady state and numerical models estimate [ClONO2]/[HCl] using currently accepted photochemistry. These models are tightly constrained by observations with OH (parameterized as a function of solar zenith angle) substituting for modeled HO2 chemistry. We find that inorganic chlorine photochemistry alone overestimates observed [ClONO2]/[HCl] by approximately 55-60% at mid and high latitudes. On the basis of POLARIS studies of the inorganic chlorine budget, [ClO]/[ClONO2], and an intercomparison with balloon observations, the most direct explanation for the model-measurement discrepancy in Cly partitioning is an error in the reactions, rate constants, and measured species concentrations linking HCl and ClO (simulated [ClO]/[HCl] too high) in combination with a possible systematic error in the ER-2 ClONO2 measurement (too low). The high precision of our simulation (+/-15% 1-sigma for [ClONO2]/[HCl], which is compared with observations) increases confidence in the observations, photolysis calculations, and laboratory rate constants. These results, along with other findings, should lead to improvements in both the accuracy and precision of stratospheric photochemical models.

Voss, P. B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Assessing Clouds in GFDL's AM4.0 With Different Microphysical Parameterizations Using the Satellite Simulator Package COSP

We evaluate cloud simulations using satellite simulators against multiple observational data sets. These simulators have been run within the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's Atmosphere Model version 4.0 (AM4.0), as well as an alternative configuration where a fully two‐moment Morrison‐Gettelman cloud microphysical parameterization with prognostic precipitation (MG2) is applied, denoted as AM4‐MG2. The modeled cloud spatial distributions, vertical profiles, phase partitioning, cloud‐to‐precipitation transitions, and radiative effects compare reasonably well with satellite observations. Model biases include the under‐prediction of total and low‐level clouds, especially optically thin/intermediate clouds with cloud optical depth of less than 23, but the over‐prediction of thick clouds, indicating “too few, too bright” biases. These biases counteract each other, and give rise to reasonable estimates of cloud radiative effects. The underestimate of low‐level clouds is associated with too early and too frequent drizzle/precipitation formation. The precipitation bias is improved in AM4‐MG2, where the autoconversion scheme initiates the precipitation more realistically. There also exist discrepancies between models and observations for midlevel and high‐level clouds. Additional biases include the underestimate of liquid cloud fraction and the overestimate of ice cloud fraction.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Non -degenerate marginal-likelihood calibration with application to quantum characterization

Here, we propose a marginal likelihood strategy within the Kennedy-O’Hagan (KOH) Bayesian framework, where a Gaussian process (GP) models the discrepancy between a physical system and its simulator. Our approach introduces a novel marginalized likelihood by integrating out the degenerate eigenspace of the covariance matrix, rather than approximating the original likelihood. Unlike approximation methods that compromise accuracy for computational efficiency, our method defines an exact likelihood—distinct from the original but preserving all relevant information. This formulation achieves computational efficiency and stability, even for large datasets where the covariance matrix nears degeneracy. Applied to the characterization of a superconducting quantum device at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory, the approach enhances the predictive accuracy of the Lindblad master equations for modeling Ramsey measurement data by effectively quantifying uncertainties consistent with the quantum data.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2023

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗