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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Improvement of Automated POST Case Success Rate Using Support Vector Machines

During early conceptual design of complex systems, concept down selection can have a large impact upon program life-cycle cost. Therefore, any concepts selected during early design will inherently commit program costs and affect the overall probability of program success. For this reason it is important to consider as large a design space as possible in order to better inform the down selection process. For conceptual design of launch vehicles, trajectory analysis and optimization often presents the largest obstacle to evaluating large trade spaces. This is due to the sensitivity of the trajectory discipline to changes in all other aspects of the vehicle design. Small deltas in the performance of other subsystems can result in relatively large fluctuations in the ascent trajectory because the solution space is non-linear and multi-modal. In order to help capture large design spaces for new launch vehicles, the authors have performed previous work seeking to automate the execution of the industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). This work initially focused on implementation of analyst heuristics to enable closure of cases in an automated fashion, with the goal of applying the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to enable near instantaneous throughput of vehicle cases.3 As noted in [4] work was then completed to improve the DOE process by utilizing a graph theory based approach to connect similar design points.

Zwack, Mathew R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Improvement of Automated POST Case Success Rate Using Support Vector Machines

During early conceptual design of complex systems, concept down selection can have a large impact upon program life-cycle cost. Therefore, any concepts selected during early design will inherently commit program costs and affect the overall probability of program success. For this reason it is important to consider as large a design space as possible in order to better inform the down selection process. For conceptual design of launch vehicles, trajectory analysis and optimization often presents the largest obstacle to evaluating large trade spaces. This is due to the sensitivity of the trajectory discipline to changes in all other aspects of the vehicle design. Small deltas in the performance of other subsystems can result in relatively large fluctuations in the ascent trajectory because the solution space is non-linear and multi-modal [1]. In order to help capture large design spaces for new launch vehicles, the authors have performed previous work seeking to automate the execution of the industry standard tool, Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST). This work initially focused on implementation of analyst heuristics to enable closure of cases in an automated fashion, with the goal of applying the concepts of design of experiments (DOE) and surrogate modeling to enable near instantaneous throughput of vehicle cases [2]. Additional work was then completed to improve the DOE process by utilizing a graph theory based approach to connect similar design points [3]. The conclusion of the previous work illustrated the utility of the graph theory approach for completing a DOE through POST. However, this approach was still dependent upon the use of random repetitions to generate seed points for the graph. As noted in [3], only 8% of these random repetitions resulted in converged trajectories. This ultimately affects the ability of the random reps method to confidently approach the global optima for a given vehicle case in a reasonable amount of time. With only an 8% pass rate, tens or hundreds of thousands of reps may be needed to be confident that the best repetition is at least close to the global optima. However, typical design study time constraints require that fewer repetitions be attempted, sometimes resulting in seed points that have only a handful of successful completions. If a small number of successful repetitions are used to generate a seed point, the graph method may inherit some inaccuracies as it chains DOE cases from the non-global-optimal seed points. This creates inherent noise in the graph data, which can limit the accuracy of the resulting surrogate models. For this reason, the goal of this work is to improve the seed point generation method and ultimately the accuracy of the resulting POST surrogate model. The work focuses on increasing the case pass rate for seed point generation.

Zwack, Matthew R.↗
NASA NTRS2017

Automation of POST Cases via External Optimizer and "Artificial p2" Calculation

During early conceptual design of complex systems, speed and accuracy are often at odds with one another. While many characteristics of the design are fluctuating rapidly during this phase there is nonetheless a need to acquire accurate data from which to down-select designs as these decisions will have a large impact upon program life-cycle cost. Therefore enabling the conceptual designer to produce accurate data in a timely manner is tantamount to program viability. For conceptual design of launch vehicles, trajectory analysis and optimization is a large hurdle. Tools such as the industry standard Program to Optimize Simulated Trajectories (POST) have traditionally required an expert in the loop for setting up inputs, running the program, and analyzing the output. The solution space for trajectory analysis is in general non-linear and multi-modal requiring an experienced analyst to weed out sub-optimal designs in pursuit of the global optimum. While an experienced analyst presented with a vehicle similar to one which they have already worked on can likely produce optimal performance figures in a timely manner, as soon as the "experienced" or "similar" adjectives are invalid the process can become lengthy. In addition, an experienced analyst working on a similar vehicle may go into the analysis with preconceived ideas about what the vehicle's trajectory should look like which can result in sub-optimal performance being recorded. Thus, in any case but the ideal either time or accuracy can be sacrificed. In the authors' previous work a tool called multiPOST was created which captures the heuristics of a human analyst over the process of executing trajectory analysis with POST. However without the instincts of a human in the loop, this method relied upon Monte Carlo simulation to find successful trajectories. Overall the method has mixed results, and in the context of optimizing multiple vehicles it is inefficient in comparison to the method presented POST's internal optimizer functions like any other gradient-based optimizer. It has a specified variable to optimize whose value is represented as optval, a set of dependent constraints to meet with associated forms and tolerances whose value is represented as p2, and a set of independent variables known as the u-vector to modify in pursuit of optimality. Each of these quantities are calculated or manipulated at a certain phase within the trajectory. The optimizer is further constrained by the requirement that the input u-vector must result in a trajectory which proceeds through each of the prescribed events in the input file. For example, if the input u-vector causes the vehicle to crash before it can achieve the orbital parameters required for a parking orbit, then the run will fail without engaging the optimizer, and a p2 value of exactly zero is returned. This poses a problem, as this "non-connecting" region of the u-vector space is far larger than the "connecting" region which returns a non-zero value of p2 and can be worked on by the internal optimizer. Finding this connecting region and more specifically the global optimum within this region has traditionally required the use of an expert analyst.

Dees, Patrick D.↗
NASA NTRS2017

RNAV STAR Procedural Adherence

Flight crews and air traffic controllers have reported many safety concerns regarding area navigation standard terminal arrival routes (RNAV STARs). However, our information sources to quantify these issues are limited to subjective reporting and time consuming case-by-case investigations. This work is a preliminary study into the objective performance of instrument procedures and provides a framework to track procedural concepts and assess design functionality. We created a tool and analysis methods for gauging aircraft adherence as it relates to RNAV STARs. This information is vital for comprehensive understanding of how our air traffic behaves. In this exploratory archival study, we mined the performance of 24 major US airports over the preceding three years. Overlaying radar track data on top of RNAV STAR routes provided a comparison between aircraft flight paths and the waypoint positions and altitude restrictions. NASA Ames Supercomputing resources were utilized to perform the data mining and processing. We assessed STARs by lateral transition path (full-lateral), vertical restrictions (full-lateralfull-vertical), and skipped waypoints (skips). In addition, we graphed aircraft altitudes relative to the altitude restrictions and their occurrence rates. Full-lateral adherence was generally greater than Full-lateralfull-vertical, but the difference between the rates was not always consistent. Full-lateralfull-vertical adherence medians of the 2016 procedures ranged from 0 in KDEN (Denver) to 21 in KMEM (Memphis). Waypoint skips ranged from 0 to nearly 100 for specific waypoints. Altitudes restrictions were sometimes missed by systematic amounts in 1000 ft. increments from the restriction, creating multi-modal distributions. Other times, altitude misses looked to be more normally distributed around the restriction. This tool may aid in providing acceptability metrics as well as risk assessment information.

rnav↗
NASA NTRS2016

Agile Multi-Scale Decompositions for Automatic Image Registration

In recent works, the first and third authors developed an automatic image registration algorithm based on a multiscale hybrid image decomposition with anisotropic shearlets and isotropic wavelets. This prototype showed strong performance, improving robustness over registration with wavelets alone. However, this method imposed a strict hierarchy on the order in which shearlet and wavelet features were used in the registration process, and also involved an unintegrated mixture of MATLAB and C code. In this paper, we introduce a more agile model for generating features, in which a flexible and user-guided mix of shearlet and wavelet features are computed. Compared to the previous prototype, this method introduces a flexibility to the order in which shearlet and wavelet features are used in the registration process. Moreover, the present algorithm is now fully coded in C, making it more efficient and portable than the MATLAB and C prototype. We demonstrate the versatility and computational efficiency of this approach by performing registration experiments with the fully-integrated C algorithm. In particular, meaningful timing studies can now be performed, to give a concrete analysis of the computational costs of the flexible feature extraction. Examples of synthetically warped and real multi-modal images are analyzed.

Science Data Processing↗
NASA NTRS2018

NASA NeMO-Net

We present preliminary results from NASA NeMO-Net, the first neural multi-modal observation and training network for global coral reef assessment. NeMO-Net is an open-source deep convolutional neural network (CNN) and interactive active learning training software in development which will assess the present and past dynamics of coral reef ecosystems. NeMO-Net exploits active learning and data fusion of mm-scale remotely sensed 3D images of coral reefs captured using fluid lensing with the NASA FluidCam instrument, presently the highest-resolution remote sensing benthic imaging technology capable of removing ocean wave distortion, as well as hyperspectral airborne remote sensing data from the ongoing NASA CORAL mission and lower-resolution satellite data to determine coral reef ecosystem makeup globally at unprecedented spatial and temporal scales. Aquatic ecosystems, particularly coral reefs, remain quantitatively misrepresented by low- resolution remote sensing as a result of refractive distortion from ocean waves, optical attenuation, and remoteness. Machine learning classification of coral reefs using FluidCam mm-scale 3D data show that present satellite and airborne remote sensing techniques poorly characterize coral reef percent living cover, morphology type, and species breakdown at the mm, cm, and meter scales. Indeed, current global assessments of coral reef cover and morphology classification based on km-scale satellite data alone can suffer from segmentation errors greater than 40%, capable of change detection only on yearly temporal scales and decameter spatial scales, significantly hindering our understanding of patterns and processes in marine biodiversity at a time when these ecosystems are experiencing unprecedented anthropogenic pressures, ocean acidification, and sea surface temperature rise. NeMO-Net leverages our augmented machine learning algorithm that demonstrates data fusion of regional FluidCam (mm, cm-scale) airborne remote sensing with global low-resolution (m, km-scale) airborne and spaceborne imagery to reduce classification errors up to 80% over regional scales. Such technologies can substantially enhance our ability to assess coral reef ecosystems dynamics.

NASA↗
NASA NTRS2016

Agile Multi-Scale Decompositions for Automatic Image Registration

In recent works, the first and third authors developed an automatic image registration algorithm based on a multiscale hybrid image decomposition with anisotropic shearlets and isotropic wavelets. This prototype showed strong performance, improving robustness over registration with wavelets alone. However, this method imposed a strict hierarchy on the order in which shearlet and wavelet features were used in the registration process, and also involved an unintegrated mixture of MATLAB and C code. In this paper, we introduce a more agile model for generating features, in which a flexible and user-guided mix of shearlet and wavelet features are computed. Compared to the previous prototype, this method introduces a flexibility to the order in which shearlet and wavelet features are used in the registration process. Moreover, the present algorithm is now fully coded in C, making it more efficient and portable than the MATLAB and C prototype. We demonstrate the versatility and computational efficiency of this approach by performing registration experiments with the fully-integrated C algorithm. In particular, meaningful timing studies can now be performed, to give a concrete analysis of the computational costs of the flexible feature extraction. Examples of synthetically warped and real multi-modal images are analyzed.

Science Data Processing↗
NASA NTRS2018

Miniature Exercise Device-2 (MED-2): Preliminary ISS Evaluation Results for a Compact Motorized Resistive and Aerobic Rowing Exercise Device

Future human missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will require onboard equipment to provide exercise capabilities for the crew to counter the adverse physiological effects of long-duration microgravity. To accomplish this within the physical constraints of a space vehicle or transit module, a single miniature device that provides both resistive and aerobic exercise modalities is required. To meet this need, Johnson Space Center’s (JSC) Software, Robotics, and Simulation Division (ER) developed the Miniature Exercise Device-2 (MED-2). MED-2 integrates a torque-controlled servomotor and a series-elastic actuator to provide highly-controllable load profiles and a large magnitude output performance in a very small package. This innovative technology is derived from years of JSC/ER design, development and operational experience with cutting-edge robotics, motor controllers, software and actuator/sensor miniaturization, including Robonaut 2 and MED-1. MED-2 was presented at the 2016 ISS R&D Conference. This is an update now that the last of six crewmembers will have completed planned MED-2 sessions on the International Space Station (ISS) in May 2018.Current state-of-the-art ISS exercise equipment consists of two treadmills, a resistive exercise device and two cycle ergometers with a total mass of several thousand pounds and a total volume of several cubic yards. This equipment has proven vital to mitigate the musculoskeletal and cardiovascular degradation effects of microgravity. However, due to the large operational volume and mass of these ISS devices, tailoring them for smaller vehicles, such as Orion, is not possible. In addition, each of the current ISS devices targets a single specific modality. Compared to the existing spaceflight (and even terrestrial) exercise equipment, MED-2 is a new archetype altogether. The combined features of compact size, multi-modality and high-performance is attributable to its innovative series elastic actuator and motor controller. Following its arrival on ISS in 2016, MED-2 was evaluated in two parts. The first and shorter evaluation was an engineering functional checkout of the hardware. As this was a novel exercise device previously never used on ISS, the initial checkout assessed the operation of the hardware and ensured the motion and dynamic range of the crew did not present any collision or other hazards. The second portion of the study collected the heart rates, kinematics and utilized operational volumes of six astronauts to determine the quality of both the resistive and aerobic exercise modalities as delivered by MED-2. Investigators from JSC Biomedical Research and Environmental Science Division (SK) and Glenn Research Center are currently evaluating the data and preparing preliminary results. For the resistive exercise modality, MED-2 demonstrated a range of constant resistive loads from 10-150 lbf. With a displacement range of 84 inches, the MED-2 accommodates users from 5th percentile Japanese female through 95th percentile American male for all of its certified exercises. The displacement measurement accuracy has also been verified within 2.5 percent full range. The crew was able to successfully perform all prescribed resistive exercises, except Goblet Squats which were not feasible with a constant load profile. For the aerobic exercise modality, MED-2 simulated a rowing motion with prescribed and user-selected resistance levels. It has demonstrated rates up to 60 strokes per minute on the ground. MED-2 loads and displacements performance are the same as those cited for the resistive modality. Although each of the crew was able to perform the prescribed aerobic rowing sets, there was considerable variability in the rowing motion among different crewmembers. Also, as expected, the crew was unable to get the full benefits of a typical terrestrial rowing stroke because the current configuration does not allow the user to reach past their feet. These observations have already informed the requirements for other microgravity rowing devices currently in development. One of the unique features of the MED-2 device is the intuitive touch-screen control system. This One Portal graphical user interface (GUI) was developed based on JSC/ER’s heritage knowledge and experience of developing and sustaining the current ISS exercise equipment. Through this interface, the crew easily performed prepared prescriptions as well as had the ability to adjust exercise modality, load and other exercise details such as number of repetitions and number of sets. This touch-screen and GUI fulfilled the MED-2 project goal to simplify the interaction between the user and the device. Furthermore, the extent to which MED-2 utilizes a touchscreen and GUI to control exercise equipment is unmatched among the existing ISS exercise devices. As a motorized device, MED-2 technology can provide a customizable force profile that can be varied as a function of strap displacement, strap velocity or a combination of these and other variables. During 2017, JSC/ER developed and flight-certified a resistive exercise algorithm that mimics the 1-G inertial effects of free-weights and enables adjustable eccentric-to-concentric loading ratios. Subsequent development will explore varying the load profiles and incorporating additional exercises beyond the current list of certified movements.

Exercise↗
NASA NTRS2017

Real Time Safety Monitoring: Concept for Supporting Safe Flight Operations

A number of organizations are working on processes, procedures, regulations, and technologies to maintain or improve the safety of the National Airspace System (NAS). In this paper, we describe a Real Time Safety Monitoring (RTSM) system that benefits from these efforts to define a set of safety metrics that are automatically monitored in real-time. In addition to providing information about current potentially adverse conditions to a variety of users, from those who need a broad overview of a day's flight operations to those who need to decide on a control tactic to employ in the next five minutes, the RTSM system predicts conditions within a specified prediction horizon. Its intelligent interface alerts the user, presenting the information as appropriate considering the current context and circumstances. We illustrate the system concept with five conceptual use cases, describing which safety metrics may be of the most interest to five user groups and suggesting a multi-modal display format. We posit that having access to information about adverse conditions in time to make efficient preemptive decisions without sacrificing safety will improve the already high level of safety and aid in the expansion planned for the NAS under the Next Generation Air Transportation System (NextGen).

safety↗
DOE OSTI2025

Elucidating the corrosion mechanism of Ni-based superalloys in the presence of uranium-containing chloride molten salt

The United States Department of Energy (DOE) is committed to the advancement of nuclear reactor technology through initiatives such as the Advanced Reactor Development Program (ARDP), in an effort to diversify the United States energy portfolio towards more sustainable energy options. The ARDP includes demonstration by industry partners of molten chloride fast reactors (MCFRs). Construction of MCFRs requires qualified nuclear structural materials. Unfortunately, there are no current materials that are fully qualified by the Nuclear Regulatory Commission for the construction of molten salt reactors, including MCFRs. Adapting current structural material qualifications requires expansion of our current knowledgebase on the property-performance relationships regarding corrosion performance. In this investigation, we assess microstructural changes in a Ni-based superalloy after exposure to a UCl3¬-containing chloride salt eutectic mixture through a correlated multi-modal approach combining several advanced characterization techniques, including scanning electron microscopy/focused ion beam (SEM/FIB) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM). SEM/FIB analysis will illustrate changes in elemental composition, microstructure, and isotopic information acquired from energy x-ray dispersive spectroscopy (EDS), electron backscatter diffraction (EBSD), and secondary ion mass spectroscopy (SIMS), respectively. This information will then aid in identifying localized regions to elucidate the corrosion mechanism with TEM through a combination of electron diffraction, electron energy loss spectroscopy (EELS), and additional EDS. The findings from this investigation will further expand our assessment of the corrosion performance of structural materials in molten salt chloride systems, aiding to developing fully qualified materials for construction of MCFRs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elucidating the corrosion mechanism of commercial Ni-based Superalloys in UCl3 containing-chloride Molten Salt Systems

Molten salt reactors (MSRs) have gained renewed interest, providing several advantages over their predecessors, including the capability to consume spent fuels, enhancing the environmental sustainability of the uranium fuel cycle. For example, molten chloride fast reactors (MCFRs) can reach criticality with molten chloride spent fuel containing high concentrations of impurities, such as actinide products like uranium chloride (UCl3). However, the redox potential of chloride molten salt fuels may change in the presence of these impurities, dictating their corrosivity and in turn the corrosion performance of structural components, such as those constructed from nickel (Ni)-based alloys. The purpose of this investigation is to assess the extent of corrosion of Ni-based alloy, Inconel 617, when exposed to UCl3-LiCl-KCl eutectic salt. Inconel 617 one of only six structural materials that are fully qualified by the American Society for Mechanical Engineers (ASME) Boiler and Pressure Vessel Code for high-temperature nuclear reactor components, making it a technologically mature material to consider for constructing MCFRs. Inconel 617 specimens were submerged in a static LiCl-KCl-UCl3 eutectic salt mixture heated at 700 C for 1000 h under an inert atmosphere. Upon completion, the extent of corrosion was analyzed through a multi-modal characterization approach spanning the engineering to nanoscale, employing computed tomography, focused-ion beam, and transmission electron microscopy techniques. Results from this investigation will enhance our understanding of property-to-performance relationships of candidate structural materials for MSRs with respect to corrosion resistance and interactions between the salt and alloy interface.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hiding-in-Plain-Sight (HiPS) Attack on CLIP for Targetted Object Removal from Images

Machine learning models are known to be vulnerable to adversarial attacks, but prior works have mostly focused on single-modalities. With the rise of large multi-modal models (LMMs) like CLIP, which combine vision and language capabilities, new vulnerabilities have emerged. However, these multimodal targeted attacks aim to completely change the model's output to what the adversary wants. In many realistic scenarios, an adversary might seek to make only subtle modifications to the output, so that the changes go unnoticed by downstream models or even by humans. We introduce Hiding-in-Plain-Sight (HiPS) attacks, a novel class of adversarial attacks that subtly modifies model predictions by selectively concealing target object(s), as if the target object was absent from the scene. We propose two HiPS attack variants, HiPS-cls and HiPS-cap, and demonstrate their effectiveness in transferring to downstream image captioning models, such as CLIP-Cap, for targeted object removal from image captions.

Daw, Arka [ORNL] (ORCID:0009000633191271)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Characterization of the degradation of gamma-irradiated elastomers using Raman spectroscopy

This report presents key findings from Raman spectroscopic analysis of gamma-irradiated rubber samples extracted from a laminated lead-damped rubber (LDR) seismic isolation device. The samples were exposed to gamma radiation from a 60Co source in a Foss Therapy Services gamma irradiator, reaching absorbed doses up to 1600 kGy. A distinct threshold near 400 kGy was identified, beyond which significant spectral changes were observed. Two Raman peaks - at approximately 425 cm-1 and 2440 cm-1 - were tracked as a function of dose using Gaussian fitting. The 425 cm-1 peak, attributed to sulfur–sulfur (S–S) bond stretching (resulting from vulcanization of the rubber), exhibited a dose-dependent upshift, indicating radiation-induced crosslinking within the sulfur-based polymer network. Conversely, the 2440 cm-1 peak, likely associated with vibrational modes of additives or impurities, showed a downward shift with increasing dose, suggesting chain scission and degradation of non-rubber constituents. These results provide first-of-a-kind insights into the microstructural evolution of elastomers under high-dose gamma irradiation and establish a preliminary dose threshold for significant degradation. Future work will incorporate multi-modal characterization—including Fourier Transform Infrared (FTIR) spectroscopy, scanning electrom microscopy (SEM) of the rubber surface morphology, thermogravimetric analysis (TGA) to determine changes in thermal stability, and mechanical testing—to correlate molecular-level changes with macroscopic performance of these elastomers as damping media in seismic isolation devices. These findings are expected to provide regulatory guidance and design criteria for qualifying low-damping rubber seismic isolators in advanced nuclear reactor applications.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Elucidating the corrosion mechanism of commercial Ni-based superalloys in UCl3 containing-chloride molten salt systems

Elucidating the role of UCl3 in the corrosion mechanism of Ni-based superalloys exposed to chloride molten salts Trishelle Copeland-Johnson1, Michael Woods1, Ruchi Gakhar1, Daniel J. Murray1, Guoping Cao1, Lingfeng He1 1Idaho National Laboratory, Idaho Falls, ID, United States The United States Department of Energy (DOE) aims to diversify the domestic energy portfolio towards more sustainable options, including implementation of molten salt reactor (MSR) technology. Chloride molten salts have been investigated as an appropriate MSR coolant and fuel because their relatively inexpensive, abundant, and exhibit favorable thermophysical properties. However, the corrosivity of chloride molten salts have not been extensively studied, especially with the inclusion of actinide products, such as UCl3. Accordingly, the development of nuclear structural materials with excellent corrosion performance is critical to the successful implementation of MSRs, particularly from a mechanistic perspective. In this investigation, we attempt to elucidate the interfacial corrosion mechanism between Ni-based structural materials, such as Inconel 617, and UCl3-containing salt systems through a multi-modal advanced characterization approach, including electron microscopy techniques. The findings from this investigation will expand the knowledgebase of chloride molten salt corrosion of MSR structural materials for strategic property-to-performance design.

36 - MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

LAF-Net: A Deep Residual and Cross-Attention Framework for Day-Ahead Load Forecasting: Preprint

Accurate day-ahead load forecasting is essential for reliable power system operations and market efficiency. System operators such as the Midcontinent Independent System Operator (MISO) rely on forecasts from multiple vendors, yet combining them effectively remains a persistent challenge due to vendor-specific biases. This paper presents a novel LSTM-Attention Fusion Network with Error Representation (LAF-Net) that enhances day-ahead hourly load forecasting through deep residual learning and multi-modal cross-attention. The proposed model builds a historical error memory from past vendor performance and dynamically queries it with future hour context to generate adaptive, hour-specific trust weights for each vendor. A bounded residual correction further refines forecasts by mitigating systematic and temporally localized errors. Tested on real MISO LBA data with multi-vendor forecasts, LAF-Net consistently outperforms the best vendor baseline across all 38 LBAs, achieving more than a 40% reduction in system-level mean absolute error (MAE) during peak load hours relative to the best vendor baseline.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Entropy-defect synergy for dual luminescence mechanism in spinel: Time-resolved anti-counterfeiting and fingerprint visualization

Multimodal luminescent materials, while promising for anti-counterfeiting, often lack dynamic time-dependent responses and controllable spatial distribution, limiting their encryption capabilities in the spatiotemporal dimension. Here, this work presents a coordinated control strategy based on entropy and defect engineering, and uses a backpropagation (BP) neural network for material screening to successfully prepare spinel Mg 0.8 (Fe 0.04 Co 0.04 Ni 0.04 Cu 0.04 Zn 0.04 )Cr 2 O 4 (MgA 5 CO) phosphors with time-dependent dynamic luminescence behavior. This phosphor simultaneously activated the d-d transition luminescence (∼618 nm) derived from Co 2+ /Cr 3+ and the defect luminescence (∼398 nm) related to zinc vacancies (V Zn ) in a single-phase solid solution. The phosphor exhibits a time-dependent color evolution from pink to purple under fixed-wavelength excitation, due to the different excited-state dynamics and decay lifetimes associated with the d-d transition and defect luminescence. Structural characterization and spectral analysis confirmed the existence of V Zn and its significant role in defect luminescence process. The fluorescent and dynamic luminescent properties of entropy-based spinel oxide enable its use in advanced anti-counterfeiting applications like fingerprint recognition and color-changing dedicated anti-counterfeiting mark, showing promise in high-end and time-dynamic anti-counterfeiting fields. This research not only developed a new type of fluorescent dynamic anti-counterfeiting material, but also provided a new idea for constructing advanced optical functional materials with multiple luminescence mechanisms.

Defect project↗
DOE OSTI2026

Ripening of Rh Nanoparticle Catalysts in Reverse Water–Gas Shift via a Data-Driven Model Combining Physics, Theory, and Experiment

Degradation via sintering is an ongoing challenge that impedes the broad commercial success of supported metallic nanoparticle catalysts. To mitigate degradation via informed catalyst design and process operations, here we aim to disambiguate the underlying mechanisms of sintering by combining theory and experiment in a quantitative framework. While mechanistic sintering models exist, they only model a single sintering pathway, even though multiple sintering mechanisms can occur simultaneously or dominate at different stages of the process. Data-driven machine learning models have emerged as a means to represent complex processes through data regression. However, machine learning models have very large data needs and lack mechanistic insights due to their black-box encoding. To develop an interpretive model of catalyst degradation via sintering, we constructed a hybrid model combining mechanistic “physics-based” models and data-driven methods to obtain both reliable predictions and mechanistic insights regarding experimentally observed sintering phenomena. Focusing on nanoparticle sintering in the Rh–TiO 2 catalyst for the reverse water–gas shift (RWGS) reaction, the hybrid model couples a mechanistic term for Ostwald ripening with energy values calculated via density functional theory (DFT) with a parametric, data-driven discrepancy function term for unmodeled mechanisms. The hybrid model is trained using Bayesian inference with data collected from small-angle X-ray scattering (SAXS) in situ experiments wherein average nanoparticle diameter versus time was measured at three relevant operating temperatures. The calibrated hybrid model results show that an Ostwald ripening-only model parameterized with fixed DFT energies does not fully capture the time and temperature dependence of the SAXS-observed sintering kinetics, and that an additional functional contribution, or DFT energy calibration, is required to reconcile simulation and experiment. Analysis of the hybrid-model error confirms that the hybrid model outperforms both the purely mechanistic and purely data-driven alternatives in terms of expected predictive accuracy for time-evolving average particle sizes. Furthermore, the results support the hypothesis that the Ostwald ripening mechanism is less important for explaining the sintering phenomena as operating temperature increases under an assumed fixed DFT parameterization. This could be explained in one of two ways: either latent, unmodeled sintering mechanisms dominate at higher temperatures, or the DFT uncertainty increases with temperature. The proposed modeling approach directly links theory to experiments and simulations via a statistical hybrid modeling framework and can be extended to other catalytic systems to improve predictive models and mechanistic understanding.

Bayesian hybrid modeling↗