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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Dynamic coevolution of baseflow and multiscale groundwater flow system during prolonged droughts

Field and numerical studies suggest that baseflow is composed of waters from a spectrum of groundwater flow paths termed the Groundwater Flow System (GWFS) – from shallow hillslope contributions to watershed-scale deep circulation originating in headwaters and discharging into lowland rivers. Here, we explore the evolution of the GWFS under prolonged droughts to understand its dynamics and multiscale nature, and to elucidate its role in baseflow generation and recession at the watershed scale. In this work, we consider three drought scenarios of varying severity and simulate groundwater flow in a 2-D cross-section of an idealized watershed with deep permeable bedrock, tracking the evolution of flow paths, baseflow, and residence times during the recession process. We find that baseflow generation at different drainage stages, and within different subwatersheds, is influenced distinctly by flow paths of different scales, depending on the relative strength of the flow paths and the position of the subwatersheds relative to the recharge/discharge zones of the deeper watershed-scale groundwater circulation. Despite having the same local relief, geology, and climate, baseflow from each subwatershed has a distinct recession behavior and time-dependent residence time distribution. Also, the hydraulic and transport characteristics of baseflow generation co-evolve and are strongly affected by the connection state of the water table to subwatersheds. These findings suggest that asynchrony and dissimilarity of baseflow generation from hillslopes under the impact of the watershed-scale groundwater flow, and interactions with local-scale and intermediate-scale groundwater flow, must be taken into account when interpreting baseflow recession data and building conceptual baseflow models at the watershed scale.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

In-Sodium Testing of a Prototype Thermoacoustic Power Sensor for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors

The ultimate goal of this project is to develop and demonstrate a thermoacoustic power sensor (TAPS) for Sodium-Cooled Fast Reactors (SFRs), with potential application also envisioned to other nuclear technologies such as Lead-Cooled Fast Reactors (LFRs), Molten Salt Reactors (MSRs), in addition to Light Water Reactors (LWRs). The project was led by Westinghouse Electric Company, LLC (Westinghouse) and carried out in collaboration with Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the University of Pittsburgh. A TAPS is a passive (self-powered), non-invasive (wireless) sensor envisioned for measuring key parameters, such as local temperature and neutron flux, in a nuclear reactor core. The sensor generates pressure waves (i.e., sound waves) with a frequency and amplitude dependent upon nuclear operating conditions (coolant temperature or power changes). The acoustic waves are able to travel through the core and associated structures, and reach to the sensor network placed outside and/or inside of the reactor vessel. These sensors require a very small amount of power which, during loss of power events, can be provided, for example, by harvesting gamma radiation energy, thus resulting in a monitoring system that can function both during normal operation and during loss of power events. Westinghouse and the University of Pittsburgh designed and fabricated TAPS prototypes for Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) to carry out in-sodium testing to evaluate the effects of sodium on the TAPS and the performance of the TAPS technique in sodium. Argonne received a TAPS prototype from Westinghouse, and the prototype was modified such that it can be installed into a test vessel and function in sodium at elevated temperature without potentially leaking. A water mockup test apparatus was constructed to validate proper working of the prototype. An instrumentation and control (I&C) system, running on the National Instruments (NI) LabView platform, was developed to: 1) operate both the water mockup test and the in-sodium test facility; and 2) process and analyze the received acoustic signals from an array of accelerometers and the Argonne sodium-submersible high-temperature acoustic sensor. The prototype was successfully tested in a water bath at different temperatures. Water mockup tests demonstrated that the TAPS prototype is working properly and its resonance frequency changes linearly with the coolant (water) temperature. A TAPS test apparatus was constructed and integrated with the upgraded Under-Sodium Viewing (USV) sodium test facility. The integrated USV-TAPS sodium test facility has been operational. The TAPS prototype and a high-temperature sodium-submersible acoustic sensor (SSAS) developed by Argonne were both installed inside the TAPS test vessel. Being operated within argon cover gas under ambient conditions, the TAPS prototype demonstrated that it was functioning properly with a resonance frequency at 1407.2 Hz, which was successfully detected by the accelerometers mounted on the external wall of the vessel and the high-temperature SSAS installed inside the vessel. After successfully transferring sodium into the vessel, in-sodium tests of the prototype were conducted. Tests of the TAPS prototype demonstrated that the resonance frequency of the TAPS changes linearly with respect to the temperature difference between the interior of the TAPS and bulk sodium. The early tests showed that the TAPS prototype could not establish a continuous and consistent resonance in sodium. The resonance diminished before the prototype reached its operating temperature. A signal postprocessor was added to the DAQ module latterly to isolate interferences, enhance signal conditioning, improve peak detection, and generate resonance frequency versus temperature plots. After testing in molten sodium and immersion at higher temperature for several weeks, the TAPS prototype was able to establish a continuous resonance. Performance evaluation of the TAPS prototype was then conducted in sodium. The tests included the investigation of 1) the effects of the temperature difference between the TAPS and bulk sodium, 2) the effects of sodium flowrate; and 3) the performance of the different sensor-receiver systems positioned inside or outside the vessel. Results of a test demonstrated that, with limited sodium circulation, a continuous and consistent resonance of the TAPS prototype was established occasionally. The tests also demonstrated that, because of the nature of detection principles and mounting methods, the high temperature SSAS is more affected by acoustic noise, while accelerometers are more affected by vibrations, in the test environment. It is unknown why the TAPS prototype only occasionally established a continuous and consistent resonance when the TAPS temperature reached its operating temperature in molten sodium, and why it ultimately failed to resonate at all. A failure modes assessment was conducted and a few potential causes of failure were identified. Different post in-sodium tests were conducted to obtain additional information potentially relevant to the cause of the failure. Nondestructive evaluation techniques are suggested to examine the internal integrity as well as the gas mixture of the prototype. If they prove inconclusive, the prototype should be cut open to conduct a thorough inspection of its internal integrity and determine the state of the gas mixture.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation: Key Drivers and Climate Impacts (Final Technical Report)

The goal of this project was to investigate the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) using a hierarchical modeling framework to advance our process-level understanding on the respective roles of, and the feedback between, the key drivers of the AMV, in particular the ocean circulation associated with the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and stochastic atmospheric forcing, primarily due to the North Atlantic Oscillation. The focus was primarily on the AMV due to natural variability, but the investigation will be extended to the possible modulation on the main characteristics of AMV under external climate forcing. Furthermore, we examined the impact of the AMV, with a special emphasis on the possible augmentation of predictability the AMV may bring to the regional weather and climate of North America, Western Europe, and the Arctic. Under this goal, we have published 15 peer-reviewed journal papers, and presented our results in more than 30 conferences over the project duration.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compound Drought and Heatwaves at a Global Scale: The Role of Natural Climate Variability-Associated Synoptic Patterns and Land-Surface Energy Budget Anomalies

Compound drought and heatwave (CDHW) events have garnered much attention in recent studies. However, thus far, the identification of such events is oversimplified, and their association with natural climate variability is not fully explored. Here, we derive anomalies in the weekly self-calibrated Palmer Drought Severity Index (sc_PDSI) and daily maximum temperatures to identify CDHW events from 1982 to 2016 over 26 climate regions across the globe. Using a Poisson Generalized Linear Model (GLM), we analyze yearly occurrences of seasonal CDHW events and their association with the warm and cold phases of El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO), Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO). ENSO exhibits robust association with CDHW events over the Southern Hemisphere during the austral summer and fall, while PDO influences their occurrences over the Western North America in the Northern Hemisphere during the boreal summer, which is supported by the composites of anomalies in the atmospheric circulations and surface energy budget. However, NAO association with CDHW events is relatively weak. The CDHW occurrence over other regions is driven by a combination of these large-scale natural forcing. Our analyses also highlight that the cooccurrence of weekly to submonthly scale anomalies in the observed temperature and precipitation may not be always aligned between the observations and the reanalysis. Therefore, caution must be exercised while explaining such observed anomalies on the basis of reanalysis-based circulations and surface energy budget. Lastly, our analyses provide a new insight towards concurrent extremes and should help foster research efforts in this area.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

The Flux-Differencing Discontinuous Galerkin Method Applied to an Idealized Fully Compressible Nonhydrostatic Dry Atmosphere

Dynamical cores used to study the circulation of the atmosphere employ various numerical methods ranging from finite-volume, spectral element, global spectral, and hybrid methods. In this work, we explore the use of Flux-Differencing Discontinuous Galerkin (FDDG) methods to simulate a fully compressible dry atmosphere at various resolutions. We show that the method offers a judicious compromise between high-order accuracy and stability for large-eddy simulations and simulations of the atmospheric general circulation. In particular, filters, divergence damping, diffusion, hyperdiffusion, or sponge-layers are not required to ensure stability; only the numerical dissipation naturally afforded by FDDG is necessary. We apply the method to the simulation of dry convection in an atmospheric boundary layer and in a global atmospheric dynamical core in the standard benchmark of Held and Suarez

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Emergent Inductance from Chiral Orbital Currents in a Bulk Ferrimagnet

Here, we report the discovery of a new form of inductance in the bulk ferrimagnet Mn 3 ⁢Si 2 ⁢Te 6 , which features strong spin-orbit coupling, large magnetic anisotropy, and pronounced magnetoelastic interactions. Below its Curie temperature (𝑇 𝐶 ≈ 78 K), Mn 3 ⁢Si 2 ⁢Te 6 hosts chiral orbital currents (COC) that circulate within the crystal lattice and give rise to collective electronic behavior [Control of chiral orbital currents in a colossal magnetoresistance material, Nature (London) 611, 467 (2022).]. By applying a magnetic field along the hard 𝑐 axis and driving the system with low-frequency currents, we uncover a giant inductive response up to millhenry scale, originating from first-order reconfigurations of COC domains. These domains act as coherent mesoscopic inductive elements that resist reversal upon current reduction, producing a large electromotive force and sharply increasing voltage. This emergent inductance defies classical models, occurs without superconductivity or engineered nanostructures, and opens a new frontier in orbital-based quantum functionality and device concepts.

complex materials↗
DOE OSTI2023

Biphasic decay of intact SHIV genomes following initiation of antiretroviral therapy complicates analysis of interventions targeting the reservoir

The latent reservoir for HIV-1 in resting CD4 + T cells persists despite antiretroviral therapy (ART) and precludes cure. Reservoir-targeting interventions are evaluated in ART-treated macaques infected with simian immunodeficiency virus (SIV) or simian-human immunodeficiency virus (SHIV). Efficacy is determined by reservoir measurements before and after the intervention. However, most proviruses persisting in the setting of ART are defective. In addition, intact HIV-1 and SIV genomes undergo complex, multiphasic decay observable when new infection events are blocked by ART. Intervention-induced elimination of latently infected cells must be distinguished from natural decay. Here, we address these issues for SHIV. We describe an intact proviral DNA assay that allows digital counting of SHIV genomes lacking common fatal defects. We show that intact SHIV genomes in circulating CD4 + T cells undergo biphasic decay during the first year of ART, with a rapid first phase (t 1/2 = 30.1 d) and a slower second phase (t 1/2 = 8.1 mo) that is still more rapid that the slow decay observed in people with HIV-1 on long-term ART (t 1/2 = 3.7 y). In SHIV models, most interventions are tested during 2nd phase decay. Natural 2nd phase decay must be considered in evaluating interventions as most infected cells present at this time do not become part of the stable reservoir. In addition, for interventions tested during 2nd phase decay, a caveat is that the intervention may not be equally effective in people with HIV on long-term ART whose reservoirs are dominated by latently infected cells with a slower decay rate.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Distinctive Pattern of Global Warming in Ocean Heat Content

Abstract Huge heat anomalies in the atmosphere and ocean in recent years are not yet explained. Strong characteristic patterns in temperatures for upper layers of the ocean occurred from 2000 to 2023 in the presence of global warming from increasing atmospheric greenhouse gases. Here, we show that the deep tropics are warming, although sharply modulated by El Niño–Southern Oscillation events, with strong heating in the extratropics near 40°N and 40°–45°S but little heating near 20°N and 25°–30°S. The heating is most clearly manifested in zonal-mean ocean heat content and is evident in sea surface temperatures. The strongest heating is in the Southern Hemisphere, where aerosol effects are small. Estimates are made of the contributions to heating of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiation, atmospheric energy transports, surface fluxes of energy, and redistribution of energy by surface winds and ocean currents. The patterns of change are not directly related to TOA radiation but are evident in net surface energy fluxes and inferred ocean heat transports, underscoring their coupled origin. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in ocean jet streams and storm tracks are reflected in surface wind-driven ocean Ekman transports. As well as human-induced climate change, internal natural variability is likely in play. Hence, the atmosphere and ocean currents are systematically redistributing heat from global warming, profoundly affecting local climates. Significance Statement As the climate changes, it has been difficult to discern meaningful patterns. Distinctive patterns of change have occurred in the ocean when examined as zonal averages around latitude bands. Most excess heat from global warming resides in the ocean and, since 2005, has become focused into bands near 40°N and 40°S, with little net warming in the subtropics. The strongest warming is in the Southern Hemisphere, although sea surface temperatures have increased more in the Northern Hemisphere. Changes in the atmospheric circulation through a poleward shift in the jet stream and storm tracks are primarily responsible along with corresponding changes in ocean currents. These changes are linked through surface exchanges of energy via heat, moisture, and wind stress.

Trenberth, Kevin E. [National Center for Atmospher↗
DOE OSTI2022

Vorticity screening by dense layers

We investigate variable density layers in the presence of vortices, by analogy to line charges in the presence of a dielectric slab. We adapt solutions for dielectric layers from the literature to the variable density fluid case, obtaining exact hypergeometric expressions for flow velocities induced everywhere by a vortex in the vicinity of a finite-thickness slab of different densities. The dimensionless Atwood number, which appears naturally in other variable density phenomena, such as the Rayleigh–Taylor instability, reappears here as the natural ordering parameter for the influence of the slab, which acts primarily to screen the influence of vorticity across the slab to a lower effective circulation. The solution takes the form of scaling correction factors that might be applied to computational models or evaluated directly. Extensions, where vorticity is localized within the dense layer itself and amplified outside of it, are considered, as well as some speculative applications such as inertial confinement fusion capsule designs.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surface radiation trends at North Slope of Alaska influenced by large-scale circulation and atmospheric rivers

Arctic amplification manifests as a pervasive warming trend emerging over the past century in near-surface air temperature throughout the Arctic that is double the globally averaged temperature increase throughout most of the year. It results from complex processes involving oceanic, atmospheric and terrestrial components which require detailed study to discern roles of the fundamental processes involved to improve predictions of the Arctic environment. We report on signals that are beginning to emerge, on a timescale predicted by recent satellite remote sensing studies, from the unique 25 year record of detailed surface-based radiometer measurements obtained by the US Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Facility North Slope of Alaska (NSA) site at Utqiaġvik, Alaska. Statistically significant warming trends are found at the site in the boreal fall, while a decrease in net radiation occurs in late summer. This decrease is driven primarily by the decrease in shortwave radiation resulting from increasing cloud liquid water path as observed by the microwave radiometer. The magnitude of the liquid water path trends is slightly larger than the root mean square error (RMSE) due to natural variability, while the magnitude of the net radiation trends is smaller than the RMSE natural variability, emphasizing that these signals are only just emerging. Analysis of prevailing meteorological regimes linking NSA with the Arctic Ocean and subarctic latitudes, and atmospheric rivers, suggests that specific changing circulation patterns are the primary driver for these summertime trends.

Lubin, Dan [Univ. of California, San Diego, CA (Un↗
DOE OSTI2023

TReactMech v4.217

TReactMech couples geomechanical processes (poroelasticity, failure, and inelastic strain) with multiphase nonisothermal flow (derived from TOUGH2) and reactive geochemical transport. At its core is the reactive-transport code TOUGHREACT v4.13. TReactMech is an efficient hybrid parallel simulator, solving the geomechanics using finite elements and MPI/PetSc, the multiphase flow using integrated finite difference and MPI/PETSc, and the reactive chemistry using OpenMP. The advantages of TReactMech are in its multiphase flow capabilities (e.g., supercritical CO2, supercritical water, air) and parallel geomechanics including full 3-D stress tensor, shear and tensile failure, coupled to porosity and permeability changes. It is backwardly compatible with TOUGH2 and TOUGHREACT v4.13, allowing for easier transitions between the codes. TReactMech can be used to simulate many natural and engineered subsurface systems, including geothermal reservoirs, borehole heat exchangers, geologic carbon sequestration, geologic storage of nuclear waste, groundwater resources, weathering, sediment diagenesis, seafloor hydrothermal circulation, hydrofracturing in unconventional reservoirs, and injection/production-induced surface deformation.

Sonnenthal, Eric↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wave Dark Matter

Here we review the physics and phenomenology of wave dark matter: a bosonic dark matter candidate lighter than about 30 eV. Such particles have a de Broglie wavelength exceeding the average interparticle separation in a galaxy like the Milky Way and are, thus, well described as a set of classical waves. We outline the particle physics motivations for such particles, including the quantum chromodynamics axion as well as ultralight axion-like particles such as fuzzy dark matter. The wave nature of the dark matter implies a rich phenomenology: Wave interference gives rise to order unity density fluctuations on de Broglie scale in halos. One manifestation is vortices where the density vanishes and around which the velocity circulates. There is one vortex ring per de Broglie volume on average. For sufficiently low masses, soliton condensation occurs at centers of halos. The soliton oscillates and undergoes random walks, which is another manifestation of wave interference. The halo and subhalo abundance is expected to be suppressed at small masses, but the precise prediction from numerical wave simulations remains to be determined. For ultralight ∼10 −22 eV dark matter, the wave interference substructures can be probed by tidal streams or gravitational lensing. The signal can be distinguished from that due to subhalos by the dependence on stream orbital radius or image separation. Axion detection experiments are sensitive to interference substructures for wave dark matter that is moderately light. The stochastic nature of the waves affects the interpretation of experimental constraints and motivates the measurement of correlation functions. Current constraints and open questions, covering detection experiments and cosmological, galactic, and black hole observations, are discussed.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Environmental Evaluation of Gas Switching Reforming for Low Carbon Hydrogen: A Power-to-X Study

Gas Switching Reforming for hydrogen production (GSR-H2) offers a promising pathway for producing low-carbon hydrogen at scale, with significant implications for Power-to-X (PtX) systems that rely on clean hydrogen as a feedstock for synthetic fuels and chemicals. GSR-H2 integrates inherent carbon capture and thermal self-sufficiency, positioning it as an efficient alternative to conventional steam methane reforming (SMR), proton exchange membrane (PEM) electrolysis, and chemical looping reforming (CLR). Unlike SMR, GSR-H2 avoids external natural gas combustion by leveraging exothermic redox cycles to generate process steam and recover electricity internally. Its innovative reactor design consolidates all reforming stages within a single reactor cluster, eliminating the need for solid circulation found in CLR, thereby reducing capital costs and improving system reliability and scalability. This presentation describes the first environmental life cycle assessment (LCA) of GSR-H2, evaluating its environmental performance across U.S. grid and renewable energy scenarios. In a renewables-powered configuration, GSR-H2 achieves a global warming potential (GWP) of 2.77 kg CO2 equivalent per kg H2, substantially lower than SMR (10.4 kg) and competitive with PEM electrolysis (1.85 kg) and CLR (1.84 kg). Results across additional impact categories, including air quality and water use, support GSR-H2’s role as a complementary hydrogen source in PtX applications. Its reduced environmental burden, thermal integration, and simplified scale-up potential make GSR-H2 a viable contributor to net-zero PtX systems, particularly where renewable energy is abundant and electricity-intensive hydrogen production faces economic or infrastructure constraints.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Coupled Investigation of Fracture Permeability Impact on Reservoir Stress and Seismic Slip Behavior (Final Technical Report)

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) produce clean energy by circulating fluid through hot rock deep underground and bringing that heat to the surface to generate electricity. For this process to work reliably, fluids must be able to move efficiently through networks of natural or engineered fractures in the rock. Enhancing and maintaining subsurface permeability over time is essential for sustainable energy production. However, fluid injection changes the underground temperature, pressure, rock stress, and chemistry, which can alter permeability and sometimes trigger earthquakes. Predicting these interconnected processes remains a key challenge. To address this, we combined high-temperature laboratory experiments with high-fidelity simulations to better understand how fractures in geothermal reservoirs evolve over time. Our experiments measured how fractures respond to stress, slip, slip rate, and chemical reactions under geothermal conditions. These data were integrated into coupled thermal-hydrological-mechanical-chemical and earthquake (THMC+E) models tailored to the Utah FORGE site. The validated modeling framework improves predictions of reservoir performance and seismic response and helps guide operational decisions. This work reduces technical risk and strengthens the scientific foundation needed to make geothermal energy a reliable and scalable clean energy resource.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Investigating Tropical Versus Extratropical Influences on the Southern Hemisphere Tropical Edge in the Unified Model

Abstract Since the late 1970s, observations have shown a widening of the tropical Hadley cell (HC) circulation. State‐of‐the‐art climate models reproduce the general trend along with a projected continuous expansion. Discrepancies in expansion rates of observation‐ and model‐based studies have been attributed to differences in applied methods, natural variability and model shortcomings. Furthermore, the driving influence of tropical or extratropical processes on these changes is not well understood. All of this highlights the dynamical mechanisms and the region of origin controlling the tropical width are still insufficiently understood. Here we examine the influence of systematic model biases of the atmosphere‐only Unified Model (UM) onto the simulation of the Southern Hemisphere (SH) tropical edge. We utilize nudged experiments with prescribed sea surface temperatures, where potential temperature and horizontal winds are relaxed back to ERA‐Interim reanalysis for a 20‐year period in selected regions. Correcting model biases in the tropics and extratropics separately allows us to dissect the dominant remote impacts of present model errors onto the SH tropical edge simulation. The experiments are applied to established tropical width metrics ranging from near‐surface to upper‐level metrics capturing the poleward flank of the HC. We find both regions work remotely to reduce errors in the UM fields and location of the tropical edge. Surprisingly, correcting the extratropical biases, south of 45°S, more consistently improves the tropical width across the metrics and seasons than nudging the tropics (10°N–10°S). These findings demonstrate the substantial role of extratropical influences in locating the SH tropical edge.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Machine Learning and Economic Models to Enable Risk-Informed Condition Based Maintenance of a Nuclear Plant Asset

The primary objective of this research is to address challenges in the implementation of risk-informed, condition-based predictive maintenance (PdM), which reduces operating costs while still maintaining the safety and reliability of commercial nuclear power plants (NPPs). To achieve the objective, risk models are being developed by taking advantage of advancements in data analytics, deep learning, machine learning (ML), and artificial intelligence (AI). The notable outcomes presented in the report include ? Development of a ML models using heterogeneous plant process and vibration data collected at different spatial and temporal resolutions from the Salem?s CWS to diagnose a circulating water pump (CWP) failure based on salient fault signatures. The developed diagnostic models are extendable to other faults associated with CWPs and CWP motors given associated fault signatures. ? Development of a natural language processing (NLP) technique to automatically classify the WO data into different categories. The developed NLP technique was validated on independent WO data. This automates the tedious and time-consuming activity of mining and classifying WOs by subject matter experts. ? Estimation of mean time between downtime (i.e., time duration between time instances when 1 or more CWPs are not available) and developed an approach to establish reliability of CWS components using unstructured WO data along with CWS plant process data. ? Formulation of economic model based on Markov chain models. The parameters of associated with the transition rate between different states of Markov chain models were estimated using WO data. The economic model formulation and discussion captures both time-independent and time-dependent parameter variation, leading to risk-informed decision-making.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2023

Source attribution of near-surface ozone trends in the United States during 1995–2019

Emissions of ozone (O 3 ) precursors in the United States have decreased in recent decades, and near-surface O 3 concentrations showed a significant decrease in summer but an increase in winter. In this study, an O 3 source tagging technique is utilized in a chemistry–climate model to investigate the source contributions to O 3 mixing ratios in the US from various emitting sectors and regions of nitrogen oxides (NO x ) and reactive carbon species during 1995–2019. We show that domestic emission reductions from energy and surface transportation are primarily responsible for the decrease in summertime O 3 during 1995–2019. However, in winter, the emission control also weakens the NO x titration process, resulting in considerable increases in O 3 levels from natural sources. Additionally, increases in aviation and shipping emissions and transpacific transport of O 3 from Asia largely contribute to the winter O 3 increase. We also found that changes in large-scale circulation favoring O 3 transport from the upper atmosphere and foreign transport from Asia also explain 15 % of the increase in the US near-surface O 3 levels in winter.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗