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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Predicting Characteristics of the Water Cycle From Scaling Relationships

Over multi-decadal time scales, assuming that changes in subsurface water storage are negligible, the continental precipitative water flux, P, can be divided into two principal components, Q (run-off, including soil infiltration and groundwater recharge) and ET (evapotranspiration). Taking into account a broadly applied Budyko's phenomenology to describe the relationship of ET/P as a function of PET/P, where PET is the potential evapotranspiration, we propose a theoretical framework for predicting characteristics of the water cycle from scaling relationships. In this framework, the ecosystem net primary productivity is expressed in terms of soil formation and vegetation growth, which is mathematically optimized with respect to the water partitioning, generating directly the value ET/P. Here, the mathematical optimization is based on the general ecological principle that dominant ecosystems tend to be those that, for any given conditions, maximize conversion of atmospheric carbon to biomass. It is shown that application of the results of mathematical optimization to water-limited ecosystems is possible by applying the optimization only to a vegetation covered portion of the surface. For energy-limited ecosystems, the optimization can be applied only to a portion of the precipitation equal to PET, assuming that the remaining P simply runs off. We use theoretical and actual values of plant root fractal dimensionalities, d f , to predict ranges of ET/P as a function of PET/P for 0 ≤ PET/P ≤ 1 and compare with annual and multi-decadal means of ET/P. By comparing the developed approach with a large amount of data collected from the literature, we demonstrate its successful applications to both water- and energy-limited systems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Insights Into Nature-Based Climate Solutions: Managing Forests for Climate Resilience and Carbon Stability

Successful implementation of forest management as a nature-based climate solution is dependent on the durability of management-induced changes in forest carbon storage and sequestration. As forests face unprecedented stability risks in the face of ongoing climate change, much remains unknown regarding how management will impact forest stability, or how interactions with climate might shift the response of forests to management across spatiotemporal scales. Here, we used a process-based model to simulate multidecadal projections of forest dynamics in response to changes in management and climate. Simulations were conducted across gradients in forest type, edaphic factors, and management intensity under two alternate radiative forcing scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). This allowed for the quantification of forest stability shifts in response to climate change, and the role of management in modulating that response, where ecosystem stability is characterized as the resilience and temporal stability of net primary production, aboveground biomass, and soil carbon. Our results indicate that forest structure is primarily shaped by management, but the same management strategy often produced divergent structures over time, due to interactions with regional climate change. We found that management can be used to increase stability and minimize the release of stored carbon by reducing mortality, but also highlight the regional dependency of management-induced changes in resilience to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Imprint of Southern Ocean Storms on Modeled Surface Chlorophyll, Their Drivers and Satellite Biases

Southern Ocean (SO) phytoplankton chlorophyll is highly variable on sub-seasonal time scales. Although the SO is the windiest ocean basin globally, it is not conclusively understood how storms impact SO phytoplankton dynamics. Much of our existing knowledge stems from satellites, but biases due to data gaps from cloud cover and low solar angles remain unquantified. Here, we use ocean–sea-ice simulations with the Community Earth System Model to quantify the climatological 1997–2018 imprint of storms on chlorophyll and phytoplankton dynamics in the ice-free SO. Additionally, by comparing the full-field model output to synthetic satellite observations, we quantify sampling biases in satellite-derived estimates. We find that both the sign and the magnitude of the average surface chlorophyll imprint vary substantially across storms but last for at least 4 days after the storm passing. Based on our analysis, more than one third of the storms explain the majority of local non-seasonal chlorophyll variability, but satellite-derived storm imprints are often too large in magnitude. On the day of the storm passing, changes in vertical mixing predominantly cause surface chlorophyll anomalies, and reduced light availability due to enhanced cloud cover outweighs the enhanced nutrient availability due to entrainment. Interestingly, storms imprint differently on total net primary production than on surface chlorophyll, demonstrating the difficulty to derive carbon-cycle impacts from a surface-chlorophyll assessment. With SO future storm activity projected to increase, complementing satellite observations with other observing technologies, for example, profiling floats, is necessary to better constrain how storms impact biological carbon cycling in the SO.

Nissen, Cara [University of Colorado, Boulder, CO ↗
DOE OSTI2025

Ubiquity and Causes of Soil Water Preferential Flow Across 17 Ecoregions

Abstract Preferential flow (PF) in soil causes the rapid transport of water, nutrients, and contaminants into the subsurface, influencing groundwater recharge and streamflow. Data scarcity has hindered the quantification of PF occurrence and the identification of its drivers across diverse ecoregions. We address this gap by analyzing high‐frequency, multi‐depth soil moisture data across 17 ecoregions in the USA, using ∼1,500 sensors at 40 sites. We discovered that PF is widespread, with sites experiencing PF in up to 60% of rainfall events ≥2 mm. Multiple approaches consistently show that PF is more likely to occur with increased peak rainfall intensity, finer textured material, low soil moisture variability, humid climate, and higher net primary productivity. This suggests that PF patterns could shift with projected climate changes, increasing uncertainty in predictions of groundwater recharge, water quality, and streamflow generation. Plain Language Summary Water can bypass part of the soil's matrix through a process called preferential flow (PF). This quick transport of water through the soil brings with it nutrients and contaminants and eventually makes it to groundwater and streams. To ensure ample amounts of good quality groundwater and surface water we need to understand when and where PF occurs. We inferred when PF occurred at 40 different sites across 17 ecoregions in the USA using soil moisture and rainfall data. We found that PF happened at all sites and in up to 60% of rainfall events ≥2 mm. Preferential flow was most likely at sites with high rainfall intensities, high clay content in soils, low variability in soil moisture, and high vegetation productivity. As rainfall intensities are predicted to increase due to climate change and vegetation becomes more productive, PF occurrence becomes more important for predicting groundwater recharge, water quality, and streamflow generation. Key Points Preferential flow (PF) is ubiquitous across the USA and occurs in up to 60% of all rainfall events ≥2 mm Rainfall intensity, soil texture, and antecedent soil moisture emerge as critical in generating PF across diverse ecoregions Two different PF detection approaches show similar relationships between key drivers and occurrence of PF

Li, Bonan↗
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO 2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach

Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh-dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES-Hydro, we conducted 30-year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity- and submersion-driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non-water-limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. In conclusion, our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community-level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.

Ding, Junyan [Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC↗
DOE OSTI2022

High impact of bacterial predation on cyanobacteria in soil biocrusts

Diverse bacteria lead a life as pathogens or predators of other bacteria in many environments. However, their impact on emerging ecological processes in natural settings remains to be assessed. Here we describe a novel type of obligate, intracellular predatory bacterium of widespread distribution that preys on soil cyanobacteria in biocrusts. The predator, Candidatus Cyanoraptor togatus, causes localized, cm-sized epidemics that are visible to the naked eye, obliterates cyanobacterial net primary productivity, and severely impacts crucial biocrust properties like nitrogen cycling, dust trapping and moisture retention. The combined effects of high localized morbidity and areal incidence result in decreases approaching 10% of biocrust productivity at the ecosystem scale. Our findings show that bacterial predation can be an important loss factor shaping not only the structure but also the function of microbial communities.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal enhancement of the viral shunt catalyzes a subsurface oxygen maximum in the Sargasso Sea

Subsurface oxygen maxima (SOMs) occur directly beneath the mixed layer of stratified water columns across oligotrophic open ocean basins and have been associated with physical transport processes and localized increases in phytoplankton net primary productivity (NPP). We explore the hypothesis that viral lysis (i.e., the ‘viral shunt’) increases nutrient recycling and enhances NPP, supporting SOM formation in stratified water columns, focusing on a recurring SOM at the Bermuda Atlantic Time Series (BATS) in the Sargasso Sea. Reanalysis of historical BATS data showed enhanced Prochlorococcus and virus-like particle abundances associated with SOMs. Instances of high rates of primary and secondary production observed with oxygen supersaturation further implicate a biological mechanism for SOM formation. Leveraging metatranscriptomes, metaviromes, and polony-based data collected during a Lagrangian cruise (October 2019), we link the viral shunt to SOMs, including evidence of elevated cyanophage abundance and infection of Prochlorococcus, and transcriptomic evidence of increased organic matter uptake (i.e., catabolic activity) by copiotrophic bacteria. Cruise data also showed Prochlorococcus nitrogen metabolism transcripts consistent with increased responsiveness to bacterial remineralization. These findings illustrate the biogeochemical impacts of enhanced viral lysis in marine systems, including the potential role of the viral shunt in facilitating SOM formation in the oligotrophic oceans.

Gilbert, Naomi E. [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Reduced CO 2 uptake and growing nutrient sequestration from slowing overturning circulation

Current Earth system models (ESMs) project dramatic slowing (28–42% by 2100) of Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation and Southern Meridional Overturning Circulation (SMOC) across a range of climate scenarios, with a complete shutdown of SMOC possible by year 2300. Slowing meridional overturning circulation (MOC) differentially impacts the ocean biological and solubility carbon pumps, leaving the net impact on ocean carbon uptake uncertain. Here using a suite of ESMs, we show that slowing MOC reduces anthropogenic carbon uptake by the solubility pump but increases deep-ocean storage of carbon and nutrients by the biological pump. The net effect reduces ocean uptake of anthropogenic CO 2 . The deep-ocean nutrient sequestration will increasingly depress global-scale, marine net primary production over time. As a result, MOC slowdown represents a positive feedback that could extend or intensify peak-warmth climate conditions on multi-century timescales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Pronounced and unavoidable impacts of low-end global warming on northern high-latitude land ecosystems

Arctic ecosystems are particularly vulnerable to climate change because of Arctic amplification. Here, we assessed the climatic impacts of low-end, 1.5 °C, and 2.0 °C global temperature increases above pre-industrial levels, on the warming of terrestrial ecosystems in northern high latitudes (NHL, above 60 °N including pan-Arctic tundra and boreal forests) under the framework of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b protocol. We analyzed the simulated changes of net primary productivity, vegetation biomass, and soil carbon stocks of eight ecosystem models that were forced by the projections of four global climate models and two atmospheric greenhouse gas pathways (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0). Our results showed that considerable impacts on ecosystem carbon budgets, particularly primary productivity and vegetation biomass, are very likely to occur in the NHL areas. The models agreed on increases in primary productivity and biomass accumulation, despite considerable inter-model and inter-scenario differences in the magnitudes of the responses. The inter-model variability highlighted the inadequacies of the present models, which fail to consider important components such as permafrost and wildfire. The simulated impacts were attributable primarily to the rapid temperature increases in the NHL and the greater sensitivity of northern vegetation to warming, which contrasted with the less pronounced responses of soil carbon stocks. The simulated increases of vegetation biomass by 30–60 Pg C in this century have implications for climate policy such as the Paris Agreement. Comparison between the results at two warming levels showed the effectiveness of emission reductions in ameliorating the impacts and revealed unavoidable impacts for which adaptation options are urgently needed in the NHL ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Updated respiration routines alter spatio-temporal patterns of carbon cycling in a global land surface model

Abstract We updated the routines used to estimate leaf maintenance respiration (MR) in the Energy Land Model (ELM) using a comprehensive global respiration data base. The updated algorithm includes a temperature acclimating base rate, an updated instantaneous temperature response, and new plant functional type specific parameters. The updated MR algorithm resulted in a very large increase in global MR of 16.1 Pg (38%), but the signal was not geographically uniform. The increase was concentrated in the tropics and humid warm-temperate forests. The increase in MR led to large but proportionally smaller decreases in global net primary production (19%) and in average global leaf area index (15%). The effect on global gross primary production (GPP) was a more modest 5.7 Pg (4%). A detailed site level analysis also demonstrated a wide range of effects the updated algorithm can have on the seasonal cycle of GPP. Output from the updated and old models did not differ markedly in how closely they matched a suite of benchmarks. Given the substantial impact on the land surface carbon cycle, a neutral influence on model benchmarks, and better alignment with empirical evidence, an MR algorithm similar to the one presented here should be adopted into ELM.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Empirical estimates of regional carbon budgets imply reduced global soil heterotrophic respiration

Resolving regional carbon budgets is critical for informing land-based mitigation policy. For nine regions covering nearly the whole globe, we collected inventory estimates of carbon-stock changes complemented by satellite estimates of biomass changes where inventory data are missing. The net land–atmospheric carbon exchange (NEE) was calculated by taking the sum of the carbon-stock change and lateral carbon fluxes from crop and wood trade, and riverine-carbon export to the ocean. Summing up NEE from all regions, we obtained a global ‘bottom-up’ NEE for net land anthropogenic CO2 uptake of –2.2 ± 0.6 PgC yr -1 consistent with the independent top-down NEE from the global atmospheric carbon budget during 2000–2009. This estimate is so far the most comprehensive global bottom-up carbon budget accounting, which set up an important milestone for global carbon-cycle studies. By decomposing NEE into component fluxes, we found that global soil heterotrophic respiration amounts to a source of CO 2 of 39 PgC yr -1 with an interquartile of 33–46 PgC yr -1 —a much smaller portion of net primary productivity than previously reported.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

A historical and comparative review of 50 years of root data collection in Puerto Rico

Fine roots play an important role in plant nutrition, as well as in carbon, water, and nutrient cycling. Fine roots account for a third of terrestrial net primary production (NPP), and inclusion of their structure and function in global carbon models should improve predictions of ecosystem responses to climate change. However, studies focusing on underground plant components are much less frequent than those on aboveground structure. This is more marked in the tropics, where one-third of the planet's terrestrial NPP is produced. Some tropical forests have been more represented in the literature than others, as demonstrated in the collective studies in Puerto Rico. This Caribbean island's biodiversity, frequency of natural disturbances, ease of access to forests, and long-term plots have created an ideal place for the study of tropical ecological processes. This review of the literature emphasizes 50 years of root research and patterns revealed around Puerto Rico. The data in this review were compiled from scientific publications, conference reports, symposiums, and raw data shared by some researches. Emergent patterns include the shallow distribution of fine roots, the great variation in root biomass among different forest types, little variation in root phosphorus concentrations, the slow recovery of root biomass after Hurricane Hugo, and the fact that most data on roots come from the wet tropical Luquillo Experimental Forest, causing other habitat types to be underrepresented. This review also shows the gaps in knowledge about fine roots in the island's ecosystems, which should be used to promote and guide future studies. Abstract in Spanish is available with online material.

tropics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Forest Age Rivals Climate to Explain Reproductive Allocation Patterns in Forest Ecosystems Globally

ABSTRACT Forest allocation of net primary productivity (NPP) to reproduction (carbon required for flowers, fruits, and seeds) is poorly quantified globally, despite its critical role in forest regeneration and a well‐supported trade‐off with allocation to growth. Here, we present the first global synthesis of a biometric proxy for forest reproductive allocation (RA) across environmental and stand age gradients from a compiled dataset of 824 observations across 393 sites. We find that ecosystem‐scale RA increases ~60% from boreal to tropical forests. Climate shows important non‐linear relationships with RA, but is not the sole predictor. Forest age effects are comparable to climate in magnitude (MAT: ß = 0.24,p = 0.021; old growth forest: ß = 0.22,p < 0.001), while metrics of soil fertility show small but significant relationships with RA (soil pH: ß = 0.07,p = 0.001; soil N: ß = −0.07,p = 0.001). These results provide strong evidence that ecosystem‐scale RA is mediated by climate, forest age, and soil conditions, and is not a globally fixed fraction of positive NPP as assumed by most vegetation and ecosystem models. Our dataset and findings can be used by modellers to improve predictions of forest regeneration and carbon cycling.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2020

Long-term nitrogen loading alleviates phosphorus limitation in terrestrial ecosystems

Increased human-derived nitrogen (N) deposition to terrestrial ecosystems has resulted in widespread phosphorus (P) limitation of net primary productivity. However, it remains unclear if and how N-induced P limitation varies over time. Soil extracellular phosphatases catalyze the hydrolysis of P from soil organic matter, an important adaptive mechanism for ecosystems to cope with N-induced P limitation. In this study we show, using a meta-analysis of 140 studies and 668 observations worldwide, that N stimulation of soil phosphatase activity diminishes over time. Whereas short-term N loading (≤5 years) significantly increased soil phosphatase activity by 28%, long-term N loading had no significant effect. Nitrogen loading did not affect soil available P and total P content in either short- or long-term studies. Together, these results suggest that N-induced P limitation in ecosystems is alleviated in the long-term through the initial stimulation of soil phosphatase activity, thereby securing P supply to support plant growth. Our results suggest that increases in terrestrial carbon uptake due to ongoing anthropogenic N loading may be greater than previously thought.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Forest responses to simulated elevated CO 2 under alternate hypotheses of size- and age-dependent mortality

Elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide (eCO 2 ) is predicted to increase growth rates of forest trees. The extent to which increased growth translates to changes in biomass is dependent on the turnover time of the carbon, and thus tree mortality rates. Size- or age-dependent mortality combined with increased growth rates could result in either decreased carbon turnover from a speeding up of tree life cycles, or increased biomass from trees reaching larger sizes, respectively. However, most vegetation models currently lack any representation of size- or age-dependent mortality and the effect of eCO 2 on changes in biomass and carbon turnover times is thus a major source of uncertainty in predictions of future vegetation dynamics. Using a reduced-complexity form of the vegetation demographic model the Functionally Assembled Terrestrial Ecosystem Simulator to simulate an idealised tropical forest, we find increases in biomass despite reductions in carbon turnover time in both size- and age-dependent mortality scenarios in response to a hypothetical eCO 2 -driven 25% increase in woody net primary productivity (wNPP). Carbon turnover times decreased by 9.6% in size-dependent mortality scenarios due to a speeding up of tree life cycles, but also by 2.0% when mortality was age-dependent, as larger crowns led to increased light competition. Increases in aboveground biomass (AGB) were much larger when mortality was age-dependent (24.3%) compared with size-dependent (13.4%) as trees reached larger sizes before death. In simulations with a constant background mortality rate, carbon turnover time decreased by 2.1% and AGB increased by 24.0%, however, absolute values of AGB and carbon turnover were higher than in either size- or age-dependent mortality scenario. The extent to which AGB increases and carbon turnover decreases will thus depend on the mechanisms of large tree mortality: if increased size itself results in elevated mortality rates, then this could reduce by about half the increase in AGB relative to the increase in wNPP.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Climate drivers alter nitrogen availability in surface peat and decouple N 2 fixation from CH 4 oxidation in the Sphagnum moss microbiome

Peat mosses (Sphagnum spp.) are keystone species in boreal peatlands, where they dominate net primary productivity and facilitate the accumulation of carbon in thick peat deposits. Sphagnum mosses harbor a diverse assemblage of microbial partners, including N 2 -fixing (diazotrophic) and CH 4 -oxidizing (methanotrophic) taxa that support ecosystem function by regulating transformations of carbon and nitrogen. In this work, we investigate the response of the Sphagnum phytobiome (plant + constituent microbiome + environment) to a gradient of experimental warming (+0°C to +9°C) and elevated CO 2 (+500 ppm) in an ombrotrophic peatland in northern Minnesota (USA). By tracking changes in carbon (CH 4 , CO 2 ) and nitrogen (NH 4 -N) cycling from the belowground environment up to Sphagnum and its associated microbiome, we identified a series of cascading impacts to the Sphagnum phytobiome triggered by warming and elevated CO 2 . Under ambient CO 2 , warming increased plant-available NH 4 -N in surface peat, excess N accumulated in Sphagnum tissue, and N 2 fixation activity decreased. Elevated CO 2 offset the effects of warming, disrupting the accumulation of N in peat and Sphagnum tissue. Methane concentrations in porewater increased with warming irrespective of CO 2 treatment, resulting in a ~10× rise in methanotrophic activity within Sphagnum from the +9°C enclosures. Warming's divergent impacts on diazotrophy and methanotrophy caused these processes to become decoupled at warmer temperatures, as evidenced by declining rates of methane-induced N 2 fixation and significant losses of keystone microbial taxa. In addition to changes in the Sphagnum microbiome, we observed ~94% mortality of Sphagnum between the +0°C and +9°C treatments, possibly due to the interactive effects of warming on N-availability and competition from vascular plant species. Collectively, these results highlight the vulnerability of the Sphagnum phytobiome to rising temperatures and atmospheric CO 2 concentrations, with significant implications for carbon and nitrogen cycling in boreal peatlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Continental United States may lose 1.8 petagrams of soil organic carbon under climate change by 2100

Abstract Aims High‐resolution information on soils’ vulnerability to climate‐induced soil organic carbon (SOC) loss can enable environmental scientists, land managers, and policy makers to develop targeted mitigation strategies. This study aims to estimate baseline and decadal changes in continental US surface SOC stocks under future emission scenarios. Location Continental United States. Time period 2014–2100. Methods We used recent SOC field observations ( n = 6,213 sites), environmental factors ( n = 32), and an ensemble machine learning (ML) approach to estimate baseline SOC stocks in surface soils across the continental United States at 100‐m spatial resolution, and decadal changes under the projected climate scenarios of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6) earth system models (ESMs). Results Baseline SOC projections from ML approaches captured more than 50% of variability in SOC observations, whereas ESMs represented only 6–16% of observed SOC variability. ML estimates showed a mean total loss of 1.8 Pg C from US surface soils under the high‐emission scenario by 2100, whereas ESMs showed no significant change in SOC stocks with wide variation among ESMs. Both ML and ESM predictions agree on the direction of SOC change (net emissions or sequestration) across 46–51% of continental US land area. These differences are attributable to the high‐resolution site‐specific data used in the ML models compared to the relatively coarse grid represented in CMIP6 ESMs. Main conclusions Our high‐resolution estimates of baseline SOC stocks, identification of key environmental controllers, and projection of SOC changes from US land cover types under future climate scenarios suggest the need for high‐resolution simulations of SOC in ESMs to represent the heterogeneity of SOC. We found that the SOC change is sensitive to key soil related factors (e.g. soil drainage and soil order) that have not been historically considered as input parameters in ESMs, because currently more than 95% variability in the SOC of CMIP6 ESMs is controlled by net primary productivity, temperature, and precipitation. Using additional environmental factors to estimate the baseline SOC stocks and predict the future trajectory of SOC change can provide more accurate results.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving collaborations between empiricists and modelers to advance grassland community dynamics in ecosystem models

Climate change, increasing atmospheric CO 2 , and land use change have altered biogeochemical and hydrologic cycles world-wide, with grassland systems being particularly vulnerable to resulting vegetation shifts (Komatsu et al., 2019). Therefore, incorporating plant community dynamics into ecosystem models is critical for accurate forecasting of ecosystem responses to global change (Levine, 2016). Process-based ecosystem models, which simulate the biogeochemical transfers of mass and energy among biota, the subsurface, and atmosphere, require representation of dynamic composition of organisms within ecosystems. For example, these models simulate leaf and plant-level characteristics, such as electron transport rate and allometry of carbon (C) allocation, to predict how net primary productivity and other ecosystem processes respond to abiotic drivers. These models are particularly useful in scaling from organismal to ecosystem levels but are still underdeveloped in their ability to capture community change, especially in grassland ecosystems. To represent compositional changes, these models must simulate competition, mortality, establishment, and reproduction of plant populations within communities. Yet, current ecosystem modeling approaches to forecast plant community change have derived from studies of forested systems and are either too coarse to capture fine-scale community dynamics (e.g. dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs)) or too complex to be used at large spatial scales (e.g. forest gap models).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗