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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Comparison of Machine Learning Methods for Frequency Nadir Estimation in Power Systems: Preprint

An increasing penetration level of inverter-based renewable energy resources changes the inertia of power systems, posing challenges for maintaining the desired system frequency stability. An accurate frequency nadir estimation is crucial for power system operators to prepare preventive actions against large frequency excursions. In this paper, five machine learning methods - linear regression, gradient boosting, support vector regression, an artificial neural network, and XGBoost - are applied to two different sets of preprocess data for the prediction of the frequency nadir in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council 240-bus system with high renewable penetration levels. The training and testing data sets are collected by extensive generation scheduling simulations on the Multi-timescale Integrated Dynamic and Scheduling (MIDAS) toolbox. Numerical results show that all five machine learning methods can achieve high performance accuracy for power system nadir frequency estimation. Among them, the gradient boosting and the XGBoost are clear winners by providing the best prediction accuracy.

data driven↗
DOE OSTI2021

RISE: Reducing I/O Contention in Staging-based Extreme-Scale In-situ Workflows

While in-situ workflow formulations have addressed some of the data-related challenges associated with extreme-scale scientific workflows, these workflows involve complex interactions and different modes of data exchange. In the context of increasing system complexity, such workflows present significant resource management challenges, requiring complex cost-performance tradeoffs. This paper presents RISE, an intelligent staging-based data management middleware, which builds on the DataSpaces framework and performs intelligent scheduling of data management operations to reduce I/O contention. In RISE, data are always written immediately to local buffers to reduce the effect of the transfer impact upon application performance. RISE identifies applications’ data access patterns and moves data towards data consumers only when the network is expected to be idle, reducing the impact of asynchronous background data movement upon critical data read/write requests. Here, we experimentally demonstrate that RISE can take advantage of staging nodes to offload data during writes without degrading application data movement performance.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2020

BigData Express: Toward Predictable, Schedulable, and High-Performance Data Transfer [Slides]

BigData Express: a schedulable, predictable, and high-performance data transfer service. A peer-to-peer, scalable, and extensible data transfer model; A visually appealing, easy-to-use web portal; A high-performance data transfer engine; On-demand provisioning of end-to-end network paths with guaranteed QoS; Robust and flexible error handling; CILogon-based security (certificate version); A rich set of REST APIs to support scientific workflows

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2022

Physics-Informed Neural Network Solution of Point Kinetics Equations for a Nuclear Reactor Digital Twin

A digital twin (DT) for nuclear reactor monitoring can be implemented using either a differential equations-based physics model or a data-driven machine learning model. The challenge of a physics-model-based DT consists of achieving sufficient model fidelity to represent a complex experimental system, whereas the challenge of a data-driven DT consists of extensive training requirements and a potential lack of predictive ability. We investigate the performance of a hybrid approach, which is based on physics-informed neural networks (PINNs) that encode fundamental physical laws into the loss function of the neural network. We develop a PINN model to solve the point kinetic equations (PKEs), which are time-dependent, stiff, nonlinear, ordinary differential equations that constitute a nuclear reactor reduced-order model under the approximation of ignoring spatial dependence of the neutron flux. The PINN model solution of PKEs is developed to monitor the start-up transient of Purdue University Reactor Number One (PUR-1) using experimental parameters for the reactivity feedback schedule and the neutron source. The results demonstrate strong agreement between the PINN solution and finite difference numerical solution of PKEs. We investigate PINNs performance in both data interpolation and extrapolation. For the test cases considered, the extrapolation errors are comparable to those of interpolation predictions. Extrapolation accuracy decreases with increasing time interval.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Argonne Leadership Computing Facility: 2021 Operational Assessment Report

This Operational Assessment Report describes how the Argonne Leadership Computing Facility (ALCF) met or exceeded every one of its goals for calendar year (CY) 2021 as an advanced scientific computing center. In CY 2021, the ALCF operated its production resource, Theta, an Intel-based Cray XC40 system (11.7-petaflops) augmented with 24 NVIDIA DGX A100-based nodes (3.9-petaflops) that supports diverse workloads, integrating data analytics with artificial intelligence (AI) training and learning in a single platform. In 2021, we began deploying Polaris, our newest 40- petaflops system, and augmented this powerful testbed system with an additional 28 nodes to support the integration of real-time experiments and HPC resources. We also deployed our two largest storage systems yet, named Grand and Eagle, that will bring new services to our users and will power data-driven research for years to come. Last year, Theta delivered a total of 20.8 million node-hours to 16 Innovative and Novel Computational Impact on Theory and Experiment (INCITE) projects and 7.2 million node-hours to ASCR Leadership Computing Challenge (ALCC) projects (32 awarded during the 2020–2021 ALCC year and 17 awarded during the 2021–2022 ALCC year), as well as substantial support to Director’s Discretionary (DD) projects (5.5 million node-hours). As Table ES.1 shows, Theta performed exceptionally well in terms of overall availability (95.1 percent), scheduled availability (99.4 percent), and utilization (98.1 percent; Table 2.1). As of the submission date of this document, ALCF’s user community has published 249 papers in high-quality, peer-reviewed journals and technical proceedings. At the 2021 International Conference for High Performance Computing, Networking, Storage and Analysis (SC’21), Argonne researchers won two HPCwire Readers’ Choice Awards and were part of a Gordon Bell Prize finalist team recognized for developing an AI-enabled, multi-resolution simulation framework for studying complex biomolecular machines. Their framework was used to observe the SARS-CoV-2 replication-transcription machinery in action, by directly integrating experimental data. ALCF also provided a comprehensive program of high-performance computing (HPC) support services to help our community make productive use of the facility’s diverse and growing collection of resources. We are now entering the exascale era, with exascale machines being planned for national laboratories across the country, including Aurora at Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) in 2023. ALCF researchers have been leading and guiding numerous strategic activities that will push the boundaries of what’s possible in computational science and engineering and allow us to deliver science on day one.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Tightest Mixed-Integer Programming Formulations for Quadratic SCUC Optimization

In this project, we developed new, tighter Mixed-Integer Programming (MIP) formulations for the combined Alternating Current (AC) Security-Constrained Unit Commitment (SCUC) and Security-Constrained Optimal Power Flow (SCOPF). The work addresses a critical challenge in power system operations: efficiently determining which generation units to commit and how to optimally dispatch them while maintaining network reliability constraints for both normal and contingency scenarios. Our efforts: 1. Advance the Understanding of SCUC/SCOPF Modeling: By introducing tighter MIP formulations and leveraging cutting-edge optimization tools (Julia/JuMP, PowerModels.jl), this project has pushed forward the state of the art in efficient power systems scheduling. 2. Enhance Technical and Economic Feasibility: The methods developed provide more accurate and potentially faster solutions to large-scale, realistic scheduling and dispatch problems in electric power systems, which can translate into improved reliability and potentially lower costs for grid operations. 3. Benefit to the Public: Greater efficiency in power system operations leads to cost savings for utilities and end-users. Improved reliability and integration of advanced modeling approaches can facilitate the adoption of clean energy resources and better accommodate uncertainties in renewable generation. Because this technology could impact bulk power markets and reliability, these innovations have far-reaching public benefits in terms of cost savings, reliability, and sustainability.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Inertia estimation for power grids: A review of methods, challenges, and future prospects

The electric power grid is undergoing a significant transformation, shifting from traditional synchronous generators to inverter-based resources (IBRs) such as solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, and energy storage systems. This evolution leads to a reduction in system inertia, a critical attribute for maintaining frequency stability in response to disturbances. Consequently, the ability to monitor and estimate system inertia has become increasingly essential. This paper provides a comprehensive review of existing inertia estimation methodologies, analyzing them from multiple perspectives, including the types of data utilized, underlying estimation principles, operational modes, and system-wide applicability. A comparative summary table is included to distill commonalities and key characteristics across various studies. In addition, the paper examines practical implementations of inertia estimation across several major power systems worldwide, including the U.S. interconnections, the Nordic power system, and the U.K. grid. Key challenges are identified, particularly in estimating contributions from virtual inertia sources and load-induced inertia in increasingly converter-dominated networks. To address these emerging challenges, the paper proposes an integrated framework for real-time inertia estimation and monitoring. This framework encompasses critical components such as data acquisition, inertia estimation from both synchronous and non-synchronous sources, load-induced effects, optimization techniques, forecasting, and virtual inertia scheduling. Collectively, these elements enable dynamic, system-wide monitoring and adaptive control of grid inertia.

Inertia estimation↗
DOE OSTI2023

EV charging site day-ahead load prediction in a synthetic environment for RL based grid-informed charging

Ensuring grid health in the face of increasing demand for power is an emerging challenge especially due to transportation electrification. A free market approach to influencing electric vehicle (EV) load through grid-informed hourly dynamic pricing is introduced in this work. The setting of charging price is done by a reinforcement learning (RL) agent that learns the complicated dynamics by interacting with a synthetic environment. This synthetic environment is a combination of distribution feeder simulation, EV charger user behavior dynamics, and EV charging simulation. A key module in this synthetic environment involves obtaining the day-ahead charging profile of EV charging stations based on real-world past data. The day-ahead prediction is also useful in other traditional optimizations related to EV charge scheduling. The proposed approach involves using EV charging data from two different past time horizons – one to determine the shape of the daily profile and the other to determine a scaling value to capture actual energy consumption. Real-world charging data over many years from the ACN charging network has been used to demonstrate the ability to predict the day-ahead profile with only charge session data. Both Python and MATLAB have been used for data cleaning, processing, analysis, and prediction.

Suryanarayana, Harish↗
DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Aggregated EV Flexibility With TSO-DSO Coordination

Electric vehicles (EVs) are becoming a promising source of grid ancillary services due to the temporal and spatial charging flexibility, quick response and storage capability. Such advantages are increasing with government policy promotion and technology improvement. However, the exploration of EV flexibility requires the coordination of both transmission system operators (TSOs) and distribution system operators (DSOs), to ensure the safe and reliable operation of power network. In this paper, we propose a coordinated evaluation method that determines the optimal utilization of EV temporal flexibility without compromising EV owners’ usage. At the distribution level, DSOs first evaluate EV aggregators’ operational boundaries to exploit distribution level services. At the transmission level, TSOs then determine EV charging schedules and ancillary service capacity simultaneously, taking into account the requirement from DSOs. Here, we validate the model in a case study using the IEEE 123 node test feeder and EV charging sessions obtained from a transportation simulation tool that uses real-world data.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows

This report details recent progress for the ASCR funded project “Integrated End-to-end Performance Prediction and Diagnosis for Extreme Scientific Workflows”. We refer to the project as IPPD/2, reflecting the 2017 renewal under expanded scope and partners In IPPD/2, we increased our research scope to include data motion. We are focusing on three major aspects: a) observe how data is generated, distributed, and used; b) analyze how data is (repeatedly) consumed with a focus both on repeated patterns and anomalies; and c) explore how to optimize data motion. This new work on data motion will augment and complement IPPD/2’s research that focused on the computational aspects of tasks. We leverage and extend our existing tools and demonstrate our work on the Belle II workflow suite as well as on workflows from NSLS-II. The highlights of our work are as follows: Provenance for Workflows: Provenance is used to provide information enabling quality control, re-run computational workflows, and reproduce results. IPPD/2 has been building a scalable provenance management system that enables the capture of provenance from the high-level workflow through all relevant system levels in one integrated environment. Leveraging this work, our recent efforts have included using provenance as an enabling technique. Workload characterization: Leveraging provenance and analysis, we characterize data movement within network, storage, and memory over a variety of workloads. This characterization enables an understanding by performance analysts and application developers of the range of behaviors that could be expected. Performance Prediction for Workflows: The goal of modeling distributed workflows is to understand performance bottlenecks and enable more intelligent task scheduling to optimize selected metrics of interest (e.g., task throughput or output data rate). IPPD/2 has utilized both analytical and AI/ML modeling methodologies for performance modeling. Advanced Scheduling and Fault Modeling for Workflows: Scheduling of large-scale scientific workflows on geographically distributed resources is a challenging problem. To improve workflow throughput, we combined novel scheduling algorithms with task predictions from performance modeling and fault modeling. Dynamically Alleviating Bottlenecks in Workflows: Exploiting our provenance, analysis, and modeling efforts, we have explored and developed several techniques for dynamically detecting and alleviating bottlenecks in data movement. In particular, we have spent considerable effort demonstrating our techniques on production-like workflow configurations.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sharing is caring: An extensive analysis of parameter-based transfer learning for the prediction of building thermal dynamics

In recent years deep neural networks have been proposed as a lightweight data-driven model to capture high-dimensional, nonlinear physical processes to predict building thermal responses. However, the need of a large amount of data for the training process of deep neural networks clashes with the potential limited data availability in most existing or new buildings. Transfer learning aims to enhance the performance of a target learner exploiting knowledge from related and similar environments. This study conducted a suite of experiments that leveraged 250 data-driven models based on a synthetic dataset of a building archetype to study the influence of data availability, energy efficiency level, occupancy and climate for the transfer process of thermal dynamics. The performance of the transfer learning process was compared against a classical machine learning approach. Here, the results suggest that building thermal dynamics can be effectively transferred under the same climatic conditions, increasing performance when dealing with different occupancy schedules, efficiency levels and low data availability. Furthermore, the paper compares the performance of both transfer learning and machine learning approaches in an online fashion, to support the implementation in real-world deployment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Coding the Computing Continuum: Fluid Function Execution in Heterogeneous Computing Environments

Advances in network technologies have greatly decreased barriers to accessing physically distributed computers. This newfound accessibility coincides with increasing hardware specialization, creating exciting new opportunities to dispatch workloads to the best resource for a specific purpose, rather than those that are closest or most easily accessible. We present Delta, a service designed to intelligently schedule function-based workloads across a distributed set of heterogeneous computing resources. Delta implements an extensible architecture in which different predictors and scheduling algorithms can be integrated to provide dynamically evolving estimates of function execution times on different resources-estimates that can be used to determine the most appropriate location for execution. We describe predictors for function runtime, data transfer time, and cold-start resource provisioning and configuration delay; dynamic learning methods that update predictor models over time; and scheduling strategies that take into account both function and endpoint information. We show that these methods can halve workload makespan when compared with a strategy that selects the fastest resource, and decrease makespan by a factor of five when compared to a round robin strategy, when deployed on a heterogeneous testbed with resources ranging from a Raspberry Pi to a GPU node in an academic cloud.

Computing continuum↗
DOE OSTI2023

Curb Allocation and Pick-Up Drop-Off Aggregation for a Shared Autonomous Vehicle Fleet

Advances in information technologies and vehicle automation have birthed new transportation services, including shared autonomous vehicles (SAVs). Shared autonomous vehicles are on-demand self-driving taxis, with flexible routes and schedules, able to replace personal vehicles for many trips in the near future. The siting and density of pick-up and drop-off (PUDO) points for SAVs, much like bus stops, can be key in planning SAV fleet operations, since PUDOs impact SAV demand, route choices, passenger wait times, and network congestion. Unlike traditional human-driven taxis and ride-hailing vehicles like Lyft and Uber, SAVs are unlikely to engage in quasi-legal procedures, like double parking or fire hydrant pick-ups. In congested settings, like central business districts (CBD) or airport curbs, SAVs and others will not be allowed to pick up and drop off passengers wherever they like. This paper uses an agent-based simulation to model the impact of different PUDO locations and densities in the Austin, Texas CBD, where land values are highest and curb spaces are coveted. In this paper 18 scenarios were tested, varying PUDO density, fleet size and fare price. The results show that for a given fare price and fleet size, PUDO spacing (e.g., one block vs. three blocks) has significant impact on ridership, vehicle-miles travelled, vehicle occupancy, and revenue. A good fleet size to serve the region’s 80 core square miles is 4000 SAVs, charging a $1 fare per mile of travel distance, and with PUDOs spaced three blocks of distance apart from each other in the CBD.

Hunter, Christian B.↗
DOE OSTI2021

New Fracture Diagnostic Tool for Unconventionals: High-Resolution Distributed Strain Sensing via Rayleigh Frequency Shift during Production in Hydraulic Fracture Test 2

Fiber Optic monitoring in unconventional reservoirs has proven to be an invaluable diagnostic tool for assessing both near-wellbore stimulation effectiveness and to help describe the far-field frac geometries created by hydraulic fracture stimulation. Unfortunately, gaining any detailed qualitative and quantitative understanding of the near-wellbore frac geometry or cluster/stage productivity during production via Fiber Optic (FO) has proven to be more difficult, particularly in wells producing liquids. A new FO diagnostic method, Distributed Strain Sensing based on Rayleigh Frequency Shift (DSS-RFS), first demonstrated for oil and gas applications in the Hydraulic Test Site 2 (HFTS2) provides new insights about the characteristics of near-wellbore-region (NWR) during production. DSS-RFS is different from other FO strain measurements because it relies on accurate measurement of frequency shifts of Rayleigh backscattered spectrum obtained by scanning the fiber with a coherent optical time-domain reflectometer with a range of laser frequencies using a tunable-wavelength laser system. Changes in strain are measured with an extremely high spatial resolution of 20 cm and with high signal-to-noise ratios over long distances. In HFTS2, strain changes for the entire wellbore have been measured twice during scheduled shut-in and reopening operations (February 2020 and September 2020). After removing temperature effects, consistent strain changes have been observed at the location of most perforation clusters. These are caused by near wellbore fracture aperture changes due to pressure increases during shut-in within the near-wellbore fracture network. The strain-change patterns from the DSS-RFS during shut-in correlate very well with the location of clusters and allow for the definition of extending intervals with positive strain signals at each cluster and slightly compressing intervals with negative strain signals between the clusters and in the non stimulated intervals. The locations of the measured positive strain peaks also show good correspondence to DAS acoustic intensity measurements acquired during the stimulation. The geometry and magnitude of the strain changes differ significantly between the two tested completion designs in the same well. During shut in and reopening each cluster exhibit its own strain-change / pressure path. In addition, the September 2020 dataset also revealed the existence of small but measurable strain changes as consequence of pressure decline during production. These strain changes also correlate well with the presence of producing clusters, but the strain-rate signals are opposite to that obtained during shut-in and reopening operations. Although Downloaded from http://onepetro.org/URTECONF/proceedings-pdf/21URTC/2-21URTC/D021S031R002/2477551/urtec-2021-5408-ms.pdf/1 by Carol Worster on 28 February 2022 URTeC 5408 2 we are still in the early stages of exploring the potential of this novel FO technique, we believe that the highly detailed information contained in the measurement of strain changes using DSS-RFS during production can significantly improve our understanding of near-wellbore hydraulic fracture characteristics and the relationships between stimulation and production from unconventional oil and gas wells.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling the Strategic Behavior of an Active Distribution Network in the ISO Markets

With increasing integration of distributed energy resources (DERs), active distribution networks (ADNs) can actively participate in the electricity markets by dispatching their DERs, which can change the existing electricity market paradigm. It is essential to investigate the strategic behaviors of ADNs and their DER dispatch when they participate in the wholesale market as price-makers. This paper proposes a bi-level optimization model to study the strategic behavior of an ADN in both energy and reserve markets. The optimal scheduling of DERs in the ADN is modeled as the upper level problem and the joint energy and reserve market-clearing of the ISO is modeled as the lower-level problem. The two-level optimization models exchange bidding information and energy/reserve prices with each other. The proposed bi-Ievel optimization problem is converted to a mathematical programming with equilibrium constraints (MPEC) by using Karush-Kuhn Tucker (KKT) conditions and strong duality theory. Further, the MPEC problem is reformulated as a computationally-solvable mixed integer second order cone programming (MISOCP) model. The simulation results on an illustrative case demonstrate the impact of the strategic bidding of the ADN on the day-ahead energy and reserve market prices.

active distribution network↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid-Enhanced, Mobility-Integrated Network Infrastructures for Extreme Fast Charging (GEMINI-XFC)

GEMINI-XFC will use first-of-a-kind integrated high-fidelity grid and transport modeling to identify effective pathways for widespread electrification, to design and evaluate integrated vehicle-grid control schemes, and to optimize electric vehicle integration at a full regional scale with individual customer resolution. Control variables will include: Charging station design and planning (where and what kind of charging stations); EV route scheduling considering grid "status"; and Dispatch of behind-the-meter energy storage and legacy voltage control actuators (on-load tap changes, voltage regulators, capacitors).

DIRECT ENERGY CONVERSION,POWER TRANSMISSION AND DI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Numerically Testing Conceptual Models of the Utah FORGE Reservoir Using July 2023 Circulation Test Data

Over the past several years, many new data sets have become available regarding the characterization of the Utah FORGE reservoir. These include, but are not limited to, the stimulation of Well 16A, the drilling and completion of Well 16B, and interwell circulation confirmatory testing. As part of the characterization efforts, conceptual models of the reservoir are re-examined as new data become available. As part of the planning for FORGE activities, numerical models are often used to predict the reservoir response to the planned testing. Stochastic methods are often employed to bound uncertainty and allow for evaluation of comprehensive ranges of key reservoir parameters. For the most recent interwell circulation confirmatory testing (July 2023), a priori numerical model predictions did bound the observed behavior (Xinj et al., 2023), but key deviations from expected behavior prompted the FORGE team to reevaluate our conceptual model of the reservoir. In early October 2023, key members of the development, testing, and monitoring teams met for 2 days to review newly collected data and discuss ‘interesting’ or ‘key’ observations. From these discussions, 15 Key Observations were documented, with several significant ones being that the discrete fracture network developed from the 16A stimulation data may not be appropriate and that the early time pressure data obtained during the summer 2023 reservoir testing were best described using radial solutions. In July 2023, two campaigns of interwell confirmatory testing were conducted, the first set of tests occurred on July 4-5 and the second set on July 18-19. The second set of circulation tests conducted at the Utah FORGE site between the injection well 16A(78)-32 and production well 16B(78)-32 on July 18 and 19, 2023 are used to calibrate material properties in a thermal-hydraulic-mechanical (THM) simulation of the discrete fracture network connecting the wells. The spatially and temporally varying reservoir properties are calibrated to match the time dependent pressure and production profiles from the circulation tests. In future work, this calibrated model will be coupled to the native state THM model of the FORGE reservoir to predict surface deformation and strains resulting from pumping schedules.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗