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Open-source microreactor design models for technoeconomic assessments

Technoeconomic analyses for advanced nuclear technologies are essential for identifying cost drivers which allow for optimizing the technology to achieve better economic performance. Microreactors are emerging as a promising and reliable-energy solution, offering inherent safety, low capital investment, and rapid deployment capabilities. Past studies have conducted technoeconomic analyses for microreactors, but there remains a need for open-source technoeconomic models that can enhance collaboration, transparency, and consistency when performing this type of analysis. The present article introduces an open-source technoeconomic model for microreactors based on bottom-up cost estimation. Since no real cost data for microreactors exists, this model leverages cost data and insights gleaned from the Microreactor Applications, Research, Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) project. It estimates the first-of-a-kind cost of two microreactor technologies and can also calculate the N th of a kind (NOAK) cost via accounting for learning and mass factory production. The two technologies considered in this paper are the liquid–metal thermal reactor (LTMR) and the gas-cooled microreactor (GCMR). In conclusion, the goal of this study is to demonstrate bottom-up cost estimation of these microreactor technologies and provide the cost estimation models that other users can leverage for various applications such as design optimization and financial planning.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

MARVEL Fuel Fabrication Strategy

The purpose of this document is to document the strategy to fabricate nuclear fuel for the Microreactor Applications Research Validation and Evaluation (MARVEL) Reactor. The fabrication method and location, fuel and material forms for transport, integration with programs and facilities, and a high level, integrated schedule are included.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Global Market Analysis of Microreactors

Microreactors are smaller and simplified versions of nuclear power plants using current generation and advanced nuclear technology designs. The purpose of this report is to assesses the unique capabilities of microreactors and assess potential deployment in specific global markets in the 2030-2050 timeframe, with consideration for regulatory limits. The methods include developing unique microreactor deployment indicators and matching use cases to define future profile markets. Top-down and bottom-up analysis techniques were used to evaluate emerging market trends, derive a range of possible demands, and rank potential markets in 63 countries including current nuclear users and newcomer countries. Deployment is considered from regulatory and planning perspectives. Results indicate significant potential for global deployment of microreactors, but also significant challenges in achieving the technical capacities, meeting regulatory requirements and international accords, achieving competitive costs, and for gaining public acceptance. Profile microreactor markets were identified that include isolated operations, distributed energy, resilient urban applications, marine propulsion, and disaster relief. Market demands could be strong in Western Europe and possibly even the U.S., but particularly strong across Asia and Eastern Europe in isolated operations and distributed energy applications. Build rates in the hundreds of units by 2040 and thousands by 2050 would be needed to attain market penetration at scale.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Risk Analysis for Remote Operation of Microreactors

Microreactors are a subset of advanced nuclear reactors that can be factory fabricated, transportable, and self-regulating. They have the potential to be used in microgrids, rural and remote areas, or emergency response applications, replacing fossil fuel sources like diesel generators and enabling sustainable energy generation. In order to make microreactor operation cost-effective, it is likely that remote communications will be needed to reduce the number of personnel required to be on site. While remote operation of energy generation and other industrial control systems is common in other industries, it is not yet adopted in the nuclear community and has many perceived and actual risks. In this paper, the severity of the risks introduced by remote operations for microreactors are explored. The primary changes in the operations involve the addition of a remote communications network and a certification system for data and controls. These changes lend themselves to considerations of cyber risks, whether unintentional or adversarial, but the assessment considers not just cyber risks introduced, but also how physical and human factors-based risks will impact the remote operations system and change the overall risk profile. This initial assessment indicates that there are standard cyber and mitigation measures that can be put in place so the risk of doing remote operations does not dramatically increase compared to local operations. This evaluation is a critical step in the process of evaluating if remote operations of microreactors is a suitable solution to meet future sustainable grid needs

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Preliminary modeling of triply periodic minimal surface (TPMS) structures using RELAP5-3D

With the United States Department of Energy (DOE)’s goal of quadrupling the nation’s nuclear energy supply by 2050, and with the Advanced Fuels Campaign pushing for new types of advanced reactor fuels and geometries, the need has arisen for new nuclear fuel designs. One such design is to swap out current nuclear fuel geometries in exchange for another type of geometry, called a Triply Periodic Minimal Surface (TPMS). TPMSs are self-supporting, infinitely repeating lattices—attributes that lend themselves well to additive manufacturing. These surfaces also possess enhanced heat transfer properties thanks to their internal area changes and large surface-area-to-volume ratios. Their drawback, however, is an increased pressure drop. Given the small amount of correlations and data (Reynolds numbers in the 2,000–8,000 range), and the minimal amount of experience so far obtained by modeling TPMS structures using 1D systems codes such as the Reactor Excursion and Leak Analysis Program (RELAP5-3D), further research into this topic was needed. Using data from the University of Wisconsin - Madison (UW), curve fits were created for both a Heat Transfer Coefficient (HTC) correlation and a Darcy friction factor empirical coefficient correlation. The curves’ coefficients and multipliers were then output and utilized in RELAP5-3D models of two upcoming experiments—Flow Loop for INFLUX Pressure drop (FLIP) and Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Experimental Test (MAGNET)—aimed at increasing the available data for Reynolds numbers to the 16,000–36,000 range for TPMS structures. The models were run under the conditions utilized by a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) analysis performed by another group at Idaho National Laboratory. Only CFD pressure drop values were obtained from the FLIP test, and those values showed that the RELAP5-3D models had a lower rate of pressure increase in comparison to the CFD values. In addition, there seemed to be a vertical shift upward in the pressure drop for both models whenever the TPMS porosity decreased, and the RELAP5-3D models showed a higher vertical shift in comparison to the CFD values. The MAGNET results did not correspond to any CFD or experimental results against which they could be compared, so they were instead compared against the proposed CFD input conditions. These values were then compared with each other to make sure the model seemed to be performing as expected, paving the way for future tests that can be run for the purpose of further analyses and comparisons. The pressure drop increased with temperature and mass flow rate independently. The temperature change would decrease with increasing mass flow rate and temperature, which was just as we expected based on the fact that the lower viscosity and decreased density would result in higher friction and churning losses. The last metric that was assessed was the enthalpy flow change, which increased with increasing mass flow rate and decreasing temperature.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Creation Synthetic Data to Train a Digital Twin to Predict Reactor Operations

Understanding techniques to strengthen the nuclear safeguards regime is crucial in preventing nuclear proliferation due to recent advancements in the nuclear energy industry such as Generation IV reactors and microreactors. Prior to the construction of a nuclear power plant, it is necessary to understand the proliferation potential of the plant's reactor. Digital twins serve as a unique solution to recognizing reactor behavior indicative of nuclear proliferation. A digital twin is defined as a virtual model that works in unison to represent a physical asset, with a transference of data between the virtual and physical assets [1]. This work serves as validation for training a digital twin on synthetic data fabricated via means of Serpent reactor physics and point kinetics equations simulations. In this case this work is based on parameters of Idaho State University's AGN-201 reactor. The synthetic data can then be utilized to train machine learning models in the future to further investigate the utility of these methods. The accuracy of the predicted data is measured against real operational data to verify the reliability of the synthetic data creation methods and decide whether these methods should be used in the future to inform inspectors of a reactor's proliferation potential.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

HYBRID Modeling of DETAIL Experimental Facility

Idaho National Laboratory continues to be at the forefront of advanced reactor systems and integrated energy systems research. Through the Thermal Energy Distribution System (TEDS) and Microreactor Agile Non-nuclear Test Bed (MAGNET) experiments in the Dynamic Energy Transport and Innovation Laboratory (DETAIL) within the Engineering Systems Laboratory, a mix of digital and physical testing systems can explore the operation of thermally and electrically integrated systems. Modeling of these systems has been done using the HYBRID modeling repository of the Integrated Energy Systems program. DETAIL also contains high temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE) units to produce hydrogen and generate the load imposed on MAGNET and TEDS. The dynamic modeling capabilities within the IES program describe the DETAIL components as-built and can be used to evaluate controls, process flows, and overall system conditions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Thermal Integration of DETAIL Systems

A thermal connection between the Microreactor AGile Non-nuclear Experimental Testbed (MAGNET) and the thermal energy distribution system (TEDS) has been a key part of the Dynamic Energy Transport and Integration Laboratory (DETAIL) plan since the development of the Integrated Energy Systems Roadmap in 2020. This connection provides an expanding demonstration capability for integrated system operations. The thermal connection between MAGNET and TEDS required the selection of a heat exchanger and valves to isolate flow. Research staff within the NEET Crosscutting Technology Development program selected equipment after receiving proposals from multiple vendors. A helical coil heat exchanger from Graham Corporation was selected for its small volume relative to its heat transfer surface area to fit in the limited space available. Triple offset butterfly valves with pneumatic actuators from Flowserve were selected to isolate and/or control flow of the hot gas through the heat exchanger. Staff from Idaho National Laboratory’s (INL) Facilities and Site Services Engineering department designed the piping and structural support. A mechanical construction firm was contracted to install the system. This report documents the design and construction of this thermal connection.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

On the Recoverability of Reactor Dynamics from Point Kinetics Data using SINDYc

Data driven models for reactor dynamics tend to face a few notable challenges. First, the broad range of timescales present across the various feedback mechanisms. Next, high standards for safety and importance of model performance in all operational domains. Finally, the correlations between state variables observed in most transients leads to difficulties when methods attempt to attribute certain dynamic phenomena to a particular cause. The current paper seeks to support efforts towards incorporating physics knowledge into one particular data-driven method for finding reactor dynamics called ``Sparse Identification of Nonlinear Dynamics with Control (SINDYc). The incorporation of physical knowledge into SINDYc will help address the challenges listed above by giving the model an initial understanding of the system being modeled. The demonstration of an exact representation of a set of point reactor dynamics equations in SINDYc is provided. Then, this allows for further discussion with mathematical justification as to why SINDYc, and other data-driven methods, may be difficult to apply to nuclear reactor dynamics due to correlations in the state variables. A particularly useful result of this work is the set of candidate functions required in SINDYc to exactly represent the reactor dynamics under a point approximation. In the future, SINDYc can be integrated with point models for reactor dynamics before being applied to the physical system to yield higher accuracy.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) for Heat Pipes

This Phenomena Identification and Ranking Table (PIRT) report provides an evaluation of key phenomena affecting the performance and operational regimes of heat pipes, particularly in the context of heat pipe microreactors (HPMRs). Heat pipes are advanced passive thermal management devices that utilize phase change and capillary action to achieve efficient heat transfer. However, due to the complexity of the phenomena coupled in the heat pipe, including phase change, turbulent transition, and compressibility effects, among others, there is high uncertainty in identifying and ranking the important phenomena affecting the operation of heat pipes and the current knowledge for their modeling and simulation and experimental measurements and instrumentation. This PIRT exercise, conducted as a collaborative effort involving the Department of Energy (DOE) Microreactor Program (MRP), the Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC), and university partners systematically identifies, reviews, and prioritizes critical phenomena affecting the operation of heat pipes based on their importance and knowledge levels. The report analyzes phenomena with high importance and low knowledge, such as wick de-wetting, critical heat flux, contact angles, and pressure dynamics, discussing challenges and future research directions for improving their modeling and simulation and experimental measurements. Additionally, the report addresses phenomena with low knowledge that could impact heat pipe operation during non-normal or transient operation, including frozen startup, laminar to turbulent transition, geysering, wick priming, underfilling conditions, surface roughness of the wick, NCGs trapped in the wick, and the timescales of startup and shutdown. This comprehensive evaluation serves as a valuable resource for guiding future research and development efforts, supporting the successful integration of heat pipes into critical applications such as nuclear reactors, and contributing to the advancement of heat pipe technologies in safety-critical industries.

21 - SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLAN↗

Assessment of Nuclear Data Needs for Advanced Reactor Demonstrations: Application to the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE)

A number of advanced reactor concepts are planned for near-term demonstrations including microreactors, larger demonstrations and space nuclear systems. These reactor concepts are based on a wide variety of reactor technologies, including sodium, gas, and salt cooling. An overlooked area in the development and ultimate startup of these reactors is addressing nuclear data needs that allow confident prediction of the criticality, safety requirements, and operation of the reactors. In this paper we try to address the problem of assessing nuclear data needs and possible remedies to reduce the existing uncertainties for advanced nuclear reactors. A methodology for defining these needs is described. The case of the Molten Chloride Reactor Experiment (MCRE) has been considered and the related investigation highlights the specific needs for reducing uncertainty on the 235U capture and 35Cl (n,p) reactions. Integral experiments relatively inexpensive are indicated as possible solution for significantly reduce the current associated uncertainties.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Sensor Reduction for Diversion Detection in a Realistic Heat Pipe Microreactor Using Supervised Machine Learning

Microreactors are designed as a smaller, cheaper, and safer alternative to traditional nuclear power plants. Their non-traditional characteristics and prospect of mass production and deployment will likely require new approaches to nuclear safeguards. The primary proliferation concern with microreactors is the diversion of fuel material. Such diversion may produce measurable defects in key physical attributes like neutron flux, which may in turn be detectable using machine learning models. Preliminary work has demonstrated this ability for modeled nominal and diversion scenarios using large quantities of energy integrated neutron flux data. In practice, the number of available sensors for such measurements will be limited and energy integrated flux information will not be available. This work explores the ability of tree-based gradient boosted ensemble models to classify a given microreactor core is nominal or diversion, and determine the number of fuel pins diverted in the case of diversion with reduced numbers of sensors and more realistic detector responses. Classification accuracy of greater than 98% and regression errors as low as 5% of the total number of fuel pins were achieved with as few as 15 sensors, compared to 99% and 4.1% with a maximum of 240 sensors.

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Mid-Year Progress Update on ORNL Support for Developing the Guidance for Microreactor Manufacturing Licenses

Factory fueling and assembly, multi-site operation, and the associated transportation of advanced nuclear systems present both new opportunities and challenges for microreactor deployment. These areas have not been demonstrated under Nuclear Regulatory Commission rules and regulations. A goal of the Systems Integration and Analysis technical area under the US Department of Energy Microreactor Program for the current fiscal year is to articulate these challenges and provide industry recommendations. This mid-year progress report describes the progress and some of the contributions to this effort by the Advanced Reactor Engineering and Development section at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. The content provided here is preliminary and may change before being incorporated into a later report, which is expected to be completed in September 2022.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Accelerated Irradiation and Qualification of Ceramic Nuclear Fuels

Accelerated neutron irradiation testing is an component of accelerated qualification of new nuclear fuels for light water reactor (LWRs), microreactors, and other special purpose reactors. The qualification and licensing of nuclear fuel is a lengthy process that can take 20-25 years to bring a new fuel into service. Accelerated fuel qualification combines both experimental and modeling work to expedite the total qualification time to 5-10 years timeframe. The experimental aspect of this is accelerated irradiation aims to reduce the total time needed for neutron irradiation to achieve targeted burnup, which can take years using conventional irradiation profiles. The data that results from this irradiation testing can then be entered into BISON models to develop robust and reliable performance simulations to ensure safe operation under normal and off normal conditions. This milestone focused on the fabrication of test articles for accelerated irradiation testing at the Advance Test Reactor (ATR).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Material Control and Accounting Regulatory and Technical Considerations for Microreactors

New microreactors must comply with the Material Control and Accounting (MC&A) regulations in 10CFR74. The objective of MC&A is to verify that the nuclear material is not stolen or diverted to unauthorized users. Microreactors have unique features which pose new challenges to addressing these regulations. This work considers general approaches and methods for microreactor MC&A based on the reactor life cycles which have been proposed by microreactor vendors. One key aspect of MC&A is measurement of the nuclear material. Measurement of microreactor fuel could be especially important because the cores may be sealed for up to 20 years, preventing direct visual confirmation. Measurements could also be especially challenging due to the thick shielding designed around microreactors. This work evaluates a range of techniques used in medical, industrial, and nuclear fields. The cost, time, and performance of the techniques were estimated. Finally, for a promising technique of using in-core neutron detectors, the feasibility was analyzed in detail.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗