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At least 163 records · Page 9

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NASA NTRS2015

Evaluating the Sensitivity of Agricultural Model Performance to Different Climate Inputs: Supplemental Material

Projections of future food production necessarily rely on models, which must themselves be validated through historical assessments comparing modeled and observed yields. Reliable historical validation requires both accurate agricultural models and accurate climate inputs. Problems with either may compromise the validation exercise. Previous studies have compared the effects of different climate inputs on agricultural projections but either incompletely or without a ground truth of observed yields that would allow distinguishing errors due to climate inputs from those intrinsic to the crop model. This study is a systematic evaluation of the reliability of a widely used crop model for simulating U.S. maize yields when driven by multiple observational data products. The parallelized Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (pDSSAT) is driven with climate inputs from multiple sources reanalysis, reanalysis that is bias corrected with observed climate, and a control dataset and compared with observed historical yields. The simulations show that model output is more accurate when driven by any observation-based precipitation product than when driven by non-bias-corrected reanalysis. The simulations also suggest, in contrast to previous studies, that biased precipitation distribution is significant for yields only in arid regions. Some issues persist for all choices of climate inputs: crop yields appear to be oversensitive to precipitation fluctuations but under sensitive to floods and heat waves. These results suggest that the most important issue for agricultural projections may be not climate inputs but structural limitations in the crop models themselves.

simulation↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Study the Vertical Structure and Transportation of the Extreme African Dust Storms using MERRA-2 Data

The Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Application, Version 2 (MERRA-2) provides the first long-term global reanalysis to assimilate space-based observations of aerosols and represents their interactions with other physical processes in the climate system. In this study, we have examined the variations of atmospheric aerosols for the last 20 years since 2002 using the sub-daily MERRA-2 data and found seven extreme African dust storms that were transported westward across the Atlantic Ocean from the Sahara, crossing 70o-80oW. In particular, the well-known ‘Godzilla’ dust storm occurred in June 2020, and its dust cloud, with the highest-on-record aerosol optical depths, was transported toward the Americas. This storm greatly degraded air quality over large areas of the Caribbean Basin and the United States. The air quality index reached unhealthy levels for sensitive groups in more than ten U.S. states. In our study, the vertical structure and transport characteristics of the dust layers during this extreme dust event are investigated. The geopotential height and temperature were found anomalously low (around 600 hPa) over the Atlantic Ocean off northwest Africa before the June 2020 dust storm. This anomalous circulation pattern was persistent for more than 12 days starting from around May 30, breaking the regular easterly waves that transport dust from the Sahara Desert to the west. To verify the data quality, daily MERRA-2 PM2.5 data were calculated and compared with PM2.5 observations from the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) at several selected ground stations in Florida. We provide this case study to illustrate how to effectively use various MERRA-2 data services at Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC) where MERRA-2 data are archived, hoping to help data users in exploring their own topics of interest using data services at GES DISC.

data management, reanalysis↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Role of Deep Convection and Large-scale Circulation in Driving Model Spread in Low Cloud Feedback and Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity

This project aims to advance the understanding of the processes that drive the large uncertainties in climate change projections, use observations to constrain model physics and reduce the inter-model spread in equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS). There are three major goals: 1) Characterize the representation of the physical pathways that link deep convection, large-scale circulation and low cloud feedback in CMIP6 model simulations and determine the relative contribution of each pathway to the CMIP6 model spread in low cloud feedback and ECS; 2) Use process-oriented diagnostics and multiple observations to evaluate CMIP6 model performance in capturing the observed cloud-circulation relation and deep convection characteristics including convective transition statistics and the bulk properties of mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Error decomposition in CMIP6 models will be performed. 3) Conduct E3SM short-range hindcasts following the DOE Cloud-Associated Parameterizations Testbed (CAPT) protocol to pinpoint specific model parameters/processes that are crucial to the representation of deep convection, circulation, clouds and the pathways that connect them. We will modify convective parameters in E3SM and analyze the perturbed physics experiments (PPEs) to isolate model parameters that are critical to the uncertainty of ECS.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2001

Mapping Arid Vegetation Species Distributions in the White Mountains, Eastern California, Using AVIRIS, Topography, and Geology

Our challenge is to model plant species distributions in complex montane environments using disparate sources of data, including topography, geology, and hyperspectral data. From an ecologist's point of view, species distributions are determined by local environment and disturbance history, while spectral data are 'ancillary.' However, a remote sensor's perspective says that spectral data provide picture of what vegetation is there, topographic and geologic data are ancillary. In order to bridge the gap, all available data should be used to get the best possible prediction of species distributions using complex multivariate techniques implemented on a GIS. Vegetation reflects local climatic and nutrient conditions, both of which can be modeled, allowing predictive mapping of vegetation distributions. Geologic substrate strongly affects chemical, thermal, and physical properties of soils, while climatic conditions are determined by local topography. As elevation increases, precipitation increases and temperature decreases. Aspect, slope, and surrounding topography determine potential insolation, so that south-facing slopes are warmer and north-facing slopes cooler at a given elevation. Topographic position (ridge, slope, canyon, or meadow) and slope angle affect sediment accumulation and soil depth. These factors combine as complex environmental gradients, and underlie many features of plant distributions. Airborne Visible/Infrared Imaging Spectrometer (AVIRIS) data, digital elevation models, digitized geologic maps, and 378 ground control points were used to predictively map species distributions in the central and southern White Mountains, along the western boundary of the Basin and Range province. Minimum Noise Fraction (MNF) bands were calculated from the visible and near-infrared AVIRIS bands, and combined with digitized geologic maps and topographic variables using Canonical Correspondence Analysis (CCA). CCA allows for modeling species 'envelopes' in multidimensional environmental space, which can then be projected across entire landscapes.

VandeVen, C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

An analytic theory for the degree of Arctic Amplification

Arctic Amplification (AA), the amplified surface warming in the Arctic relative to the global mean, is a robust and impactful feature of climate change. While the basic physical picture of AA has been depicted, a clear understanding of how the degree of AA is determined has not been established. Here, by deciphering the intricate role of atmospheric heat transport (AHT), we build a two-box energy-balance model of AA and derive that the degree of AA is a simple nonlinear function of the Arctic and global feedbacks, the meridional heterogeneity in radiative forcing, and the partial sensitivities of AHT to global mean warming and meridional warming gradient. The formula captures the varying degree of AA in individual climate models and attributes the variation to specific physical factors. It further conveys a concise picture of how essential physics mutually determine the degree of AA and limit the range within 1.5~3.5. Our results articulate AHT as both forcing and feedback to AA, highlighting its partial sensitivities instead of total change as the key parameters for understanding AA. We also find that the effect of lapse rate feedback, a widely-recognized major contributor to AA, is fully offset by the effect of water vapor feedback.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Model Study of the Sources of Upper Tropospheric Ozone Over The Atlantic, with Emphasis on Interhemispheric Asymmetries

Measurements of ozone and aerosols from ships transecting the Atlantic Ocean reveal considerable interhemispheric asymmetries in the vertical structure of the ozone distribution. There is much more upper tropospheric ozone to the South of the Equator than in the northern hemisphere. These profiles suggest that the air in the southern hemispheric tropics and subtropics has a source in the stratosphere, while that in the northern hemisphere originates in the boundary layer. A model experiment designed to investigate this problem will be discussed. They are based on a new general circulation model, based on a Finite-Volume dynamical core and the physical parametrizations from the Community Climate Model at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). The model simulates a climatological state in reasonable agreement with observations, comparable to other contemporary climate models, but has a much more accurate transport capability than most other present-day models. The experiment involves using a suite of tracers, designed to highlight air from different source regions. Some of these (water vapor and ozone) represent real atmospheric quantities, while others are markers which indicate whether the air originates in the stratosphere, the boundary layer, or has traversed regions of convection (for example). The experiments were run for periods of up to one month, initialized from snapshots from a long climate integration of the model. A sample of results will be presented, chosen to illustrate the different sources of air in the upper troposphere and the physical mechanisms by which these air parcels arrived there.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS2017

Climate Limits Across Space and Time on European Forest Structure

The impact climate has on forests has been extensively studied. However, the large scale effect climate has on forest structures, such as average diameters, heights and basal area are understudied in a spatially explicit manner. The limits, tipping points and thresholds that climate places on forest structures dictate the services a forest may provide, the vulnerability of a forest to mortality and the potential value of the timber there within. The majority of current research either investigates climate impacts on forest pools and fluxes, on a tree physiological scale or on case studies that are used to extrapolate results and potential impacts. A spatially explicit study on how climate affects forest structure over a large region would give valuable information to stakeholders who are more concerned with ecosystem services that cannot be described by pools and fluxes but require spatially explicit information - such as biodiversity, habitat suitability, and market values. In this study, we quantified the limits that climate (maximum, minimum temperature and precipitation) places on 3 forest structures, diameter at breast height, height, and basal area throughout Europe. Our results show clear climatic zones of high and low upper limits for each forest structure variable studied. We also spatially analyzed how climate restricts the potential bio-physical upper limits and creates tipping points of each forest structure variable and which climate factors are most limiting. Further, we demonstrated how the climate change has affected 8 individual forests across Europe and then the continent as a whole. We find that diameter, height and basal area are limited by climate in different ways and that areas may have high upper limits in one structure and low upper limits in another limited by different climate variables. We also found that even though individual forests may have increased their potential upper limit forest structure values, European forests as a whole have lost, on average, 5.0%, 1.7% and 6.5% in potential mean forest diameter, height and basal area, respectively.

Moreno, Adam La Salle↗

NASA NTRS2023

The Compound Risk of Heat and COVID-19 in New York City: Riskscapes, Physical and Social Factors, and Interventions

Climate change is disrupting the fundamental conditions of human life and exacerbating existing inequity by placing further burdens on communities that are already vulnerable. Risk exposure varies by where people live and work. In this article, we examine the spatial overlap of the compound risks of COVID-19 and extreme heat in New York City. We assess the relationship between socio-demographic and natural, built and social environmental characteristics, and the spatial correspondence of COVID-19 daily case rates across three pandemic waves. We use these data to create a compound risk index combining heat, COVID-19, density and social vulnerability. Our findings demonstrate that the compound risk of COVID-19 and heat are public health and equity challenges. Heat and COVID-19 exposure are influenced by natural, built, and social environmental factors, including access to mitigation infrastructure. Socio-demographic characteristics are significant indicators of COVID-19 and heat exposure and of where compound vulnerability exists. Using GIS mapping, we illustrate how COVID-19 risk geographies change across the three waves of the pandemic and the particular impact of vaccinations before the onset of the third wave. We, then, use our compound risk index to assess heat interventions undertaken by the City, identify neighborhoods of both adequate and inadequate coverage and provide recommendations for future interventions.

COVID-19↗

NASA NTRS2000

Status of The SPARC-GRIPS Initiative

The GCM-Reality Intercomparison Project for the Symbolic Processing Algorithmic Research Computer (SPARC) is an initiative designed to provide a comprehensive assessment of our ability to model the present-day climate and the impacts of different physical perturbations. This poster will show the different scientific experiments being conducted in the general purpose rocket instrumentation and payload system (GRIPS) and include some summaries of the results. The three concurrent aspects of GRIPS are: (1) studies of the climate and transient features simulated by the models; (2) examinations of different parametrizations and their impacts on the model climate; (3) studies of the impact of physical perturbations, such as solar forcing, volcanic aerosols and ozone change. Sample results from a number of these areas will be presented, with discussion of their implications for our ability to model the climate of the present and future atmosphere.

Pawson, Steven↗

NASA NTRS1994

Physical and Optical/Radiative Properties of Arctic Aerosols: Potential Effects on Arctic Climate

We have determined the abundance of light-scattering sulfuric acid (H2SO4/H2O) and light-absorbing black carbon aerosol (BCA) in Spring 1992 in the Arctic atmosphere by airborne in situ sampling with impactors, and measured particle sizes and morphologies by scanning electron microscopy. The mass of BCA in the Arctic troposphere is one percent of the total aerosol, reduced to one part in 104 in the stratosphere. A Mie algorithm permits the calculation of the optical properties of the various aerosol components, and an algorithm developed by Ackerman and Toon and modified to serve our needs lets us calculate the optical effects of the black carbon aerosol that is mixed internally with the sulfuric acid aerosol. It follows that the effect of internally-mixed BCA on the aerosol scattering and absorption properties depends on its location within the droplet. BCA concentrated near the droplet surface has a greater effect on absorption of solar radiation than does the same amount of BCA located near its center. Single scatter albedos of the combined system are omega(sub 0)=1.0 in the post-Pinatubo Arctic stratosphere, and as low as 0.94 in the troposphere. The aerosol has the potential to regionally warm the Arctic earth-atmosphere system, because of the high surface albedo of the snow-covered Arctic.

Pueschel, R. F.↗

NASA NTRS2012

Upgrades, Current Capabilities and Near-Term Plans of the NASA ARC Mars Climate

We describe and review recent upgrades to the ARC Mars climate modeling framework, in particular, with regards to physical parameterizations (i.e., testing, implementation, modularization and documentation); the current climate modeling capabilities; selected research topics regarding current/past climates; and then, our near-term plans related to the NASA ARC Mars general circulation modeling (GCM) project.

Hollingsworth, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Planetary Boundary Layer Height Estimates From ICESat-2 and CATS Backscatter Measurements

The lowest layer of the atmosphere in which all human activity occurs is called the Planetary Boundary Layer (PBL). All physical interactions with the surface, such as heat and moisture transport, pollution dispersion and transport happen in this relatively shallow layer. The ability to understand and model the complex interactions that occur in the PBL is very important to air quality, weather prediction and climate modeling. A fundamental and physically important property of the PBL is its thickness or height. This work presents two methods to obtain global PBL height using satellite lidar data from the Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite-2 (ICESat-2) and the Cloud-Aerosol Transport System (CATS). The first method is a straightforward backscatter threshold technique and the second is a machine learning approach known as a Convolutional Neural Network. The PBL height retrievals from the two methods are compared with each other and with PBL height from the NASA GEOS MERRA-2 reanalysis. The lidar-retrieved PBL heights have a high degree of spatial correlation with the model heights but are generally higher over ocean (∼400 m) and over northern hemisphere high latitude regions (∼1,000 m). Over mid-latitude and tropical land areas, the satellite estimated PBL heights agree well with model mid-day estimates. This work demonstrates the feasibility of using satellite lidar backscatter measurements to obtain global PBL height estimates, as well as determining seasonal and regional variability of PBL height.

Stephen P Palm↗

NASA NTRS2019

Deep Learning and Uncertainty Quantification for Climate Resilience

Modeling and monitoring of earth’s processes through physical models and satellite observations at high resolutions is crucial for ensuring society’s ability to adapt to climate change. Deep learning (DL) has been shown to be a valuable tool for generating high resolution data, emulating physical models, and detecting weather patterns which can then be used to inform stakeholders and decision makers. However, both the data and model parameters contain substantial uncertainties that may alter users’ decisions. In this work we present two DL applications on high-resolution climate and satellite datasets using Bayesian neural networks to generate well calibrated uncertainty estimates.

Vandal, Thomas↗

DOE OSTI2025

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part I: Model Description and Thermal Properties

We present the GFDL‐CM4X (Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Climate Model version 4X) coupled climate model hierarchy. The primary application for CM4X is to investigate ocean and sea ice physics as part of a realistic coupled Earth climate model. CM4X utilizes an updated MOM6 (Modular Ocean Model version 6) ocean physics package relative to CM4.0, and there are two members of the hierarchy: one that uses a horizontal grid spacing of 0.25° (referred to as CM4X‐p25) and the other that uses a grid 0.125° (CM4X‐p125). CM4X also refines its atmospheric grid from the nominally 100 km (cubed sphere C96) of CM4.0–50 km (C192). Finally, CM4X simplifies the land model to allow for a more focused study of the role of ocean changes to global mean climate. CM4X‐p125 reaches a global ocean area mean heat flux imbalance of -0.02 W m -2 within $\mathcal{O}$ (150) years in a pre‐industrial simulation, and retains that thermally equilibrated state over the subsequent centuries. This 1850 thermal equilibrium is characterized by roughly 400 ZJ less ocean heat than present‐day, which corresponds to estimates for anthropogenic ocean heat uptake between 1870 and present‐day. CM4X‐p25 approaches its thermal equilibrium only after more than 1000 years, at which time its ocean has roughly 1100 ZJ more heat than its early 21st century ocean initial state. Furthermore, the root‐mean‐square sea surface temperature bias for historical simulations is roughly 20% smaller in CM4X‐p125 relative to CM4X‐p25 (and CM4.0). We offer the mesoscale dominance hypothesis for why CM4X‐p125 shows such favorable thermal equilibration properties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal variations of the atmospheric muon neutrino spectrum measured with IceCube

This study presents an analysis of seasonal variations in the atmospheric muon neutrino flux, using 11.3 years of data from the IceCube Neutrino Observatory. By leveraging a novel spectral unfolding method, we explore the energy range from 125 GeV to 10 TeV for zenith angles from 90° to 110°, corresponding to the Antarctic atmosphere. Our findings reveal that the differential measurement of the amplitudes of the seasonal variation is consistent with an energy-dependent decrease reaching (-4.5 ± 1.2)% during Austral winter and increase to (+ 3.9 ± 1.3)% during Austral summer relative to the annual average at 10 TeV. While the unfolded flux exceeds the model predictions by up to 30%, the differential measurement of the seasonal to annual average flux remains unaffected. The measured seasonal variations of the muon neutrino spectrum are consistent with theoretical predictions using the MCEq code and the NRLMSISE-00 atmospheric model.

Astroparticle Physics and High-Energy Cosmic Pheno↗

NASA NTRS2015

Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer

The comprehensive and innovative evaluation of climate models with newly available global observations is critically needed for the improvement of climate model current-state representation and future-state predictability. A climate model diagnostic evaluation process requires physics-based multi-variable analyses that typically involve large-volume and heterogeneous datasets, making them both computation- and data-intensive. With an exploratory nature of climate data analyses and an explosive growth of datasets and service tools, scientists are struggling to keep track of their datasets, tools, and execution/study history, let alone sharing them with others. In response, we have developed a cloud-enabled, provenance-supported, web-service system called Climate Model Diagnostic Analyzer (CMDA). CMDA enables the physics-based, multivariable model performance evaluations and diagnoses through the comprehensive and synergistic use of multiple observational data, reanalysis data, and model outputs. At the same time, CMDA provides a crowd-sourcing space where scientists can organize their work efficiently and share their work with others. CMDA is empowered by many current state-of-the-art software packages in web service, provenance, and semantic search.

cloud computing↗

NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the International Space Station (ISS): Mission Description and Science Goals

In recent years, NASA Marshall Space Flight Center, the University of Alabama in Huntsville, and their partners have developed and demonstrated space-based lightning observations as an effective remote sensing tool for Earth science research and applications. The Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) continues to provide global observations of total lightning after 17 years on-orbit. In April 2013, a space-qualified LIS built as the flight spare for TRMM, was selected for flight as a science mission on the International Space Station. The ISS LIS (or I-LIS as Hugh Christian prefers) will be flown as a hosted payload on the Department of Defense Space Test Program (STP) H5 mission, which has a January 2016 baseline launch date aboard a SpaceX launch vehicle for a 2-4 year or longer mission. The LIS measures the amount, rate, and radiant energy of global lightning. More specifically, it measures lightning during both day and night, with storm scale resolution, millisecond timing, and high, uniform detection efficiency, without any land-ocean bias. Lightning is a direct and most impressive response to intense atmospheric convection. It has been found that the characteristics of lightning that LIS measures can be quantitatively coupled to both thunderstorm and other geophysical processes. Therefore, the ISS LIS lightning observations will provide important gap-filling inputs to pressing Earth system science issues across a broad range of disciplines, including weather, climate, atmospheric chemistry, and lightning physics. A unique contribution from the ISS platform will be the availability of real-time lightning, especially valuable for operational applications over data sparse regions such as the oceans. The ISS platform will also uniquely enable LIS to provide simultaneous and complementary observations with other payloads such as the European Space Agency's Atmosphere-Space Interaction Monitor (ASIM) that will be exploring the connection between thunderstorms and lightning with terrestrial gamma-ray flashes (TGFs). Another important function of the ISS LIS will be to provide cross-sensor calibration/validation with a number of other payloads, including the TRMM LIS and the next generation geostationary lightning mappers (e.g., GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper and Meteosat Third Generation Lightning Imager). This inter-calibration will improve the long term climate monitoring provided by all these systems. Finally, the ISS LIS will extend the time-series climate record of LIS lightning observations and expand the latitudinal coverage of LIS lightning to the climate significant upper middle-latitudes.

Blakeslee, R. J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) for the International Space Station (ISS): Mission Description and Science Goals

Blakeslee, R. J.↗