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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

A Measurement of the Largest-scale CMB E -mode Polarization with CLASS

We present measurements of large-scale cosmic microwave background E-mode polarization from the Cosmology Large Angular Scale Surveyor 90 GHz data. Using 115 det-yr of observations collected through 2024 with a variable-delay polarization modulator, we achieved a polarization sensitivity of 82 μK arcimin, comparable to Planck at similar frequencies (100 and 143 GHz ). The analysis demonstrates effective mitigation of systematic errors and addresses challenges to large-angular-scale power recovery posed by time-domain filtering in maximum-likelihood map-making. A novel implementation of the pixel-space transfer matrix is introduced, which enables efficient filtering simulations and bias correction in the power spectrum using the quadratic cross-spectrum estimator. Overall, we achieved an unbiased time-domain filtering correction to recover the largest angular scale polarization, with the only power deficit, arising from map-making nonlinearity, being characterized as <3%. Through cross-correlation with Planck, we detected the cosmic reionization at 99.4% significance and measured the reionization optical depth τ = $0.053^{+0.018}_{-0.019}$, marking the first ground-based attempt at such a measurement. At intermediate angular scales (ℓ > 30), our results, both independently and in cross-correlation with Planck, remain fully consistent with Planck’s measurements.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of social structure and management on risk of disease establishment in wild pigs

Contact heterogeneity among hosts determines invasion and spreading dynamics of infectious disease, thus its characterization is essential for identifying effective disease control strategies. Yet, little is known about the factors shaping contact networks in many 28 wildlife species and how wildlife management actions might affect contact networks. Wild pigs in North America are an invasive, socially-structured species that pose a health concern for domestic swine given their ability to transmit numerous devastating diseases 2 such as African swine fever (ASF). Using proximity loggers and GPS data from 48 wild pigs in Florida and South Carolina, USA, we employed a probabilistic framework to estimate weighted contact networks. We determined the effects of sex, social group, and spatial distribution (monthly home range overlap and distance) on wild pig contact. We also estimated the impacts of management-induced perturbations on contact and inferred their effects on ASF establishment in wild pigs with simulation. Social group membership was the primary factor influencing contacts. Between-group contacts depended primarily on space use characteristics, with fewer contacts among groups separated by >2 km and no contacts among groups >4 km apart within a month. Modeling ASF dynamics on the contact network demonstrated that indirect contacts resulting from baiting (a typical method of attracting wild pigs or game species to a site to enhance recreational hunting) increased the risk of disease establishment by ~33% relative to direct contact. Low-intensity population reduction (<5.9% of the population) had no detectable impact on contact structure but reduced predicted ASF establishment risk relative to no population reduction. Here, we demonstrate an approach for understanding the relative role of spatial, social, and individual-level characteristics in shaping contact networks and predicting their effects on disease establishment risk, thus providing insight for optimizing disease control in spatially- and socially-structured wildlife species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

The Importance of Being Adaptable: An Exploration of the Power and Limitations of Domain Adaptation for Simulation-Based Inference with Galaxy Clusters

The application of deep machine learning methods in astronomy has exploded in the last decade, with new models showing remarkably improved performance on benchmark tasks. Not nearly enough attention is given to understanding the models' robustness, especially when the test data are systematically different from the training data, or "out of domain." Domain shift poses a significant challenge for simulation-based inference, where models are trained on simulated data but applied to real observational data. In this paper, we explore domain shift and test domain adaptation methods for a specific scientific case: simulation-based inference for estimating galaxy cluster masses from X-ray profiles. We build datasets to mimic simulation-based inference: a training set from the Magneticum simulation, a scatter-augmented training set to capture uncertainties in scaling relations, and a test set derived from the IllustrisTNG simulation. We demonstrate that the Test Set is out of domain in subtle ways that would be difficult to detect without careful analysis. We apply three deep learning methods: a standard neural network (NN), a neural network trained on the scatter-augmented input catalogs, and a Deep Reconstruction-Regression Network (DRRN), a semi-supervised deep model engineered to address domain shift. Although the NN improves results by 17% in the Training Data, it performs 40% worse on the out-of-domain Test Set. Surprisingly, the Scatter-Augmented Neural Network (SANN) performs similarly. While the DRRN is successful in mapping the training and Test Data onto the same latent space, it consistently underperforms compared to a straightforward Yx scaling relation. These results serve as a warning that simulation-based inference must be handled with extreme care, as subtle differences between training simulations and observational data can lead to unforeseen biases creeping into the results.

Ntampaka, Michelle [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci↗
DOE OSTI2024

The NuMI Flux Prediction at ICARUS

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation long-baseline neutrino oscillation experiment seeking to probe fundamental symmetries within the structure of the Pontecorvo-Maki-Nakagawa-Sakata (PMNS) mixing matrix, and perform precision measurements its parameters including the neutrino mass ordering via the sign of $\Delta m^2_{31}$, and the charge-parity violating phase, $\delta_{CP}$. To make these measurements with high precision, DUNE will require external $\nu$-Ar scattering cross section data as a crucial input to the oscillation fit. Imaging Cosmic And Rare Underground Signals (ICARUS) is a 476 t liquid argon neutrino detector located at Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory (FNAL) where it is serving as the far detector for the Short-Baseline Neutrino (SBN) program along the Booster Neutrino Beam (BNB) axis. ICARUS additionally lies 795 m downstream and 100.1 mrad off-axis of the Neutrinos at the Main Injector (NuMI) neutrino beam. From this position, ICARUS is exposed to a large flux of NuMI (anti-)electron and (anti-)muon neutrinos, and poses a unique opportunity to provide high-statistics measurements of quasi-elastic and single pion-production cross sections for four neutrino flavors ($\nu_{\mu}$, $\nu_{e}$, $\bar{\nu}_{\mu}$, $\bar{\nu}_{e}$). This dissertation is centered around accurately characterizing the models and estimating their precision for use in making these measurements. This includes identifying major sources of uncertainty in the models such that they can be properly propagated to the cross section measurements. Specifically, this work focused on the model of the NuMI beamline and its impact on the neutrino fluxes, but also delved into the detector response model and its impact on reconstructed observables in the detector. Significant efforts were made to improve the characterization to enhance precision and thus reduce the level of propagated uncertainty. In particular, the NuMI flux was determined to be composed of 57% $\nu_{\mu}$, 38% $\bar{\nu}_{\mu}$, 3% $\nu_{e}$, and 2% $\bar{\nu}_{e}$ while the horns are operating in the positive-particle focusing configuration. The total uncertainty on the $\nu_{\mu} + \bar{\nu}_{\mu}$ ($\nu_{e} + \bar{\nu}_{e}$) flux while operating in the forward horn operating mode was determined to be 10.84% (9.04%). Compared to the on-axis flux, mesons that eventually decay to neutrinos more frequently reinteract within the NuMI structure, resulting in elevated uncertainty as these processes are not well-constrained by existing hadron interaction cross section measurements. Covariance matrices were calculated to propagate the flux uncertainty characterization to NuMI analyses.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian Estimation of Oscillator Parameters: Toward Anomaly Detection and Cyber-Physical System Security

Cyber-physical system security presents unique challenges to conventional measurement science and technology. Anomaly detection in software-assisted physical systems, such as those employed in additive manufacturing or in DNA synthesis, is often hampered by the limited available parameter space of the underlying mechanism that is transducing the anomaly. As a result, the formulation of anomaly detection for such systems often leads to inverse or ill-posed problems, requiring statistical treatments. Here, we present Bayesian inference of unknown parameters associated with a generic actuator considered as a representative vital element of a cyber-physical system. Via a series of experimental input-output measurements, a transfer function for the actuator is obtained numerically, which serves as our model for the proposed method. Linear, nonlinear, and delayed dynamics may be assumed for the actuator response. By devising a code-based malicious signal, we study the efficacy of Bayesian inference for its potential to produce a detection, including uncertainty quantification, with a remarkably small number of input data points. Our approach should be adaptable to a variety of real-time cyber-physical anomaly detection scenarios.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Heavy Oil Polymer EOR in the Challenging Alaskan Arctic - It Works!

Under co-sponsorship of the US Department of Energy and Hilcorp Alaska LLC the first ever polymer field pilot commenced on 8/28/2018 in the Schrader Bluff heavy oil reservoir at the Milne Point Field on Alaska North Slope (ANS). The primary objective of the pilot is to prove the efficacy of polymer Enhanced Oil Recovery (EOR) to unlock the vast heavy oil resources on ANS. More than two and half years after startup, the polymer injection, supporting laboratory experiments and simulation studies steadily continue. The pilot started injecting hydrolyzed polyacrylamide (HPAM), at a concentration of 1,750 ppm to achieve a target viscosity of 45 cP, into the two horizontal injectors in the flood pattern. Production is monitored in the two horizontal producers. Based on laboratory measurements of polymer viscosity at reservoir conditions, the team decided to reduce polymer concentration to 1,200 ppm since July 2020 in an effort to control injection pressure and optimize polymer utilization. Quality control (QC) on the field ensures uniform polymer solution properties. Representative rock and fluid systems and test conditions are utilized in the corefloods on polymer retention, effect of injection water salinity, polymer loading, and their combinations on oil recovery. A history matched reservoir simulation model for forecasting oil recovery was developed on the basis of all the available field data. Field concerns related to the post-polymer breakthrough impact on flow assurance is addressed via specialized laboratory tests. Notwithstanding early operational disruptions and hydration issues, continuous polymer injection in both injectors has been achieved. To date, 950,000 lbs of polymer or 2 million barrels of polymer solution, equating to 13% of total pore volume (PV), has been placed in the flood pattern, serving as an effective indicator of adequate polymer injectivity. So far, the success of polymer EOR is evident from drastically reduced water cut in the producers, an estimated incremental 1,000 bopd over waterflood, and a favorable polymer utilization of 1.7 lbs/barrel of incremental oil. Polymer breakthrough was observed 26 months after the start of polymer injection. Main observations from corefloods are unusually high polymer retention values in some cases and a positive response to low salinity water. Although the heterogeneity in the flood pattern and exceptionally low water cut pose some challenges, persistent novel and justifiable simulation approaches have resulted in a robust history matched model. Experimental results on produced fluids treatment provide operational guidance for improved oil-water separation and mitigation of heater tube fouling. The ongoing success of the pilot is a key indicator of bringing the team ever closer to meeting the project’s primary objective. The encouraging results of the pilot is one of the drivers that has provided the impetus to apply polymer EOR throughout the Milne Point Field, which would increase oil recovery and extend the economic life of the Trans Alaska Pipeline System. The scientific knowledge, including the many lessons learned from this pilot also has referential value for other potential heavy oil EOR projects throughout the world. The collected data, operational lessons learned, and the overall success of the pilot are summarized in the paper.

None, None↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dynamics of Intra-Cell Thermal Front Propagation in Lithium-Ion Battery Safety Issues

Thermal runaway (TR), a critical failure mode in lithium-ion batteries (LIBs), poses significant safety risks and hinders wider application of LIBs. TR typically begins at a localized heat source and spreads across the cell. Understanding thermal front propagation (TFP) characteristics, such as front and velocity, is crucial for assessing energy release and temperature distribution for battery hazardous estimation. Recent studies assume that TR within cells propagates at a near-constant velocity, based on the reaction kinetics and thermal properties. Here, in this study, an intra-battery TR model is further proposed and it indicates that TFP velocity stabilizes when the front is distanced from the heat source. Theoretical estimates for propagation velocity and front are developed and validated through numerical simulations and experimental tests from the NREL Battery Failure Databank. The energy release rate during TFP and the impact of preheating based on a point heat source are explored. This work clarifies the long-standing clouds of the thermal font propagation behaviors within the single cell, highlights the power and beauty of mathematics modeling to describe the complicated thermal behaviors, and provides important guidelines for thermal hazardous understanding for next-generation batteries.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Bayesian operator inference for data-driven reduced-order modeling

This work proposes a Bayesian inference method for the reduced-order modeling of time-dependent systems. Informed by the structure of the governing equations, the task of learning a reduced-order model from data is posed as a Bayesian inverse problem with Gaussian prior and likelihood. The resulting posterior distribution characterizes the operators defining the reduced-order model, hence the predictions subsequently issued by the reduced-order model are endowed with uncertainty. The statistical moments of these predictions are estimated via a Monte Carlo sampling of the posterior distribution. Since the reduced models are fast to solve, this sampling is computationally efficient. Furthermore, the proposed Bayesian framework provides a statistical interpretation of the regularization term that is present in the deterministic operator inference problem, and the empirical Bayes approach of maximum marginal likelihood suggests a selection algorithm for the regularization hyperparameters. The proposed method is demonstrated on two examples: the compressible Euler equations with noise-corrupted observations, and a single-injector combustion process.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Magnus method for electronic structure calculations at extreme conditions

We present the application of Magnus based methods to the solution of first order coupled ordinary differential equations in High Energy Density (HED) physics applications. Our focus is on the application to quantum mechanical methods, specifically on the solution of the radial Dirac equation for real and complex energies. HED applications require accurate solutions across a wide range of spatial and energy domains, including regimes where the solutions exhibit pronounced oscillatory behavior. Such cases pose significant computational challenges. We demonstrate that Magnus-based integrators can efficiently and accurately address these challenges. We discuss the implementation of the Magnus method for the solution of the radial Dirac equation, including practical considerations such as the evaluation of matrix exponentials, numerical integration, error estimation, and adaptive step size control. We also discuss the application of these methods to complex energy Green’s function techniques and the efficient approximation of integrals of the solutions relevant to HED electronic structure calculations. Here, we demonstrate the accuracy and robustness of the resulting method in applications to the free-particle case, for which analytic solutions are available for comparison, as well as the challenging case of gold at HED conditions.

general physics↗
DOE OSTI2026

Sedimentation and Nonlinear Trapping in Texas Reservoirs Identified Using Remote Sensing and Bathymetric Survey Records

Decreasing reservoir storage capacity due to sedimentation poses great challenges to aging U.S. reservoirs, as it reduces the efficacy and reliability of their socio‐economic services. However, systematic assessments of reservoir sedimentation rates and associated issues remain limited because of sparse and infrequent bathymetry survey data. In this study, we use remote sensing‐driven estimates of sediment concentrations to identify regions experiencing rapid reservoir capacity loss, as observed in repeated bathymetry surveys. Our analysis focuses on Texas, where one of the most reliable state‐level reservoir capacity loss data sets is available through a unique long‐term monitoring program by the Texas Water Development Board. We find that reservoirs with large storage capacities and high sedimentation rate are concentrated in Northeast Texas. We also show that reduced forest, increased barren land, and erosive soil properties are co‐varying with high reservoir sedimentation rates. Temporal changes in the longitudinal gradient of the remotely sensed sediment flux highlight the nonlinear nature of sediment trapping processes, and can be used to estimate the reservoir storage capacity loss over time. In combination with standard bathymetry surveys, our approach shows potential for more cost‐effective and frequent assessment of reservoir storage loss.

Lee, Jiyong [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000198957406)↗
DOE OSTI2025

Spatial Impacts of Electric Vehicle Charging on Power Grid Stability: A Downtown Atlanta Case Study

The rapid increase in electric vehicle (EV) charging demand poses a potential risk to power grid stability, particularly as the spatial distribution of this demand remains underexplored. Existing research often focuses on technical optimization models while overlooking the geographic and human dynamics that affect energy consumption. This study addresses this gap by incorporating mobility data to estimate both building energy use and EV charging demand while also considering geographic factors for a better understanding of grid load. Using agent-based simulations and the Open-Source Distribution System Simulator, the study evaluates the effect of various EV penetration scenarios on grid voltage and unbalance. The results show that, although voltage remains within acceptable limits at lower EV penetration rates, significant voltage drop and unbalance occur as EV penetration exceeds 40%, particularly in residential areas with high charging demand. This study offers a framework for integrating spatial analysis and mobility data in power network simulations, providing insights for future EV infrastructure planning.

Pan, Melrose [ORNL] (ORCID:000000031627448X)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Warming of the Willamette River, 1850–present: the effects of climate change and river system alterations

Abstract. Using archival research methods, we recovered and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140-year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid-20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at 1.1 ∘C per century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January and February (1.3 ∘C per century) and the smallest in May and June (∼ 0.8 ∘C per century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 ∘C has increased by about 20 d since the 1800s, to about 60 d yr−1. Moreover, cold-water days below 2 ∘C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since 1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ± 0.25 ∘C) but also occur due to alterations in the river system such as depth increases from reservoirs (0.34 ± 0.12 ∘C). Managed release of water affects Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of up to 0.56 ∘C estimated for September. River system changes have decreased variability (σ) in daily minimum Tw by 0.44 ∘C, increased thermal memory, reduced interannual variability, and reduced the response to short-term meteorological forcing (e.g., heat waves). These changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

High speed vibration compensation using magnetic fiducials via NIMBLE

Additive manufacturing (AM) technology, specifically 3D printing, holds great promise for in-orbit manufacturing. In-space printing can significantly reduce the mass, cost, and risk of long-term space exploration by enabling replacement parts to be made as needed and reducing dependence on Earth. However, printing in a zero-gravity environment poses challenges due to the absence of a rigid ground for the print platform, which can result in vibrational and rotational forces that may impact printing integrity. Here, to address this issue, this paper proposes a novel linear magnetic position tracking algorithm, named Navigation Integrating Magnets By Linear Estimation (NIMBLE), for dynamic vibration compensation during 3D printing of truss structures in space. Compared to the most commonly used nonlinear optimization method, the NIMBLE algorithm is more than two orders of magnitude faster. With only a single 3-axis magnet sensor and a small NdFeB magnet, the NIMBLE algorithm provides a simple and easily implemented tracking solution for in-orbit 3D printing.

3D printing in space↗
DOE OSTI2020

A semblance measure for model comparison

Algorithmic and computational advances have made it possible that geophysical survey and earth model design can be aided by many systematic trial inverse-modelling runs with synthetic data. Such may, for example, come up in machine-learning approaches. Automated image appraisal pertaining to such applications will involve common statistical tests for goodness-of-data fit as a primary evaluation method. However, solution non-uniqueness may render multiple images equivalent in terms of their data fit, requiring secondary categorizers. A logical choice for classifying synthetic-imaging results quantifies the goodness of model fit where a known reference model replaces the observational input. The task of model intercomparison in terms of measuring the resemblance to the reference model poses challenges to common distance-based metrics like root mean square error and mean absolute error. First, distance-based metrics can introduce spurious contributions when smooth models with fuzzy target contours are to be compared against a sharp reference. Second, large differences due to parameter-estimation overshoots can dominate distance metrics. Here, we propose a remedy that is referred to as semblance and is based on the idea of logistic functions, where a binary-dependent variable adds non-zero or zero accumulation terms for the, respectively, passing or failing of preset target thresholds. This classifying approach is amenable to an objective where model feature recognition is primary. Numerical comparisons to distance-based metrics provide evidence for the advantages of the semblance in view of this objective. Geophysical imaging in conjunction with machine-learning is seen as a benefitting upcoming application area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Protection Against Graph-Based False Data Injection Attacks on Power Systems

Graph signal processing (GSP) has emerged as a powerful tool for practical network applications, including power system monitoring. By representing power system voltages as smooth graph signals, recent research has focused on developing GSP-based methods for state estimation, attack detection, and topology identification. Included, efficient methods have been developed for detecting false data injection (FDI) attacks, which until now were perceived as non-smooth with respect to the graph Laplacian matrix. Consequently, these methods may not be effective against smooth FDI attacks. In this paper, we propose a graph FDI (GFDI) attack that minimizes the Laplacian-based graph total variation (TV) under practical constraints. In addition, we develop a low-complexity algorithm that solves the non-convex GDFI attack optimization problem using ell_1-norm relaxation, the projected gradient descent (PGD) algorithm, and the alternating direction method of multipliers (ADMM). We then propose a protection scheme that identifies the minimal set of measurements necessary to constrain the GFDI output to high graph TV, thereby enabling its detection by existing GSP-based detectors. Our numerical simulations on the IEEE-57 bus test case reveal the potential threat posed by well-designed GSP-based FDI attacks. Moreover, we demonstrate that integrating the proposed protection design with GSP-based detection can lead to significant hardware cost savings compared to previous designs of protection methods against FDI attacks.

Morgenstern, Gal↗
DOE OSTI2024

Droplet collection efficiencies inferred from satellite retrievals constrain effective radiative forcing of aerosol–cloud interactions

Abstract. Process-oriented observational constraints for the anthropogenic effective radiative forcing due to aerosol–cloud interactions (ERFaci) are highly desirable because the uncertainty associated with ERFaci poses a significant challenge to climate prediction. The contoured frequency by optical depth diagram (CFODD) analysis supports the evaluation of model representation of cloud liquid-to-rain conversion processes because the slope of a CFODD, generated from joint MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS)-CloudSat cloud retrievals, provides an estimate of cloud droplet collection efficiency in single-layer warm liquid clouds. Here, we present an updated CFODD analysis as an observational constraint on the ERFaci due to warm rain processes and apply it to the U.S. Department of Energy's Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SMv2). A series of sensitivity experiments shows that E3SMv2 droplet collection efficiencies and ERFaci are highly sensitive to autoconversion, i.e., the rate of mass transfer from cloud liquid to rain, yielding a strong correlation between the CFODD slope and the shortwave component of ERFaci (ERFaciSW; Pearson's R=-0.91). E3SMv2's CFODD slope (0.20 ± 0.04) is in agreement with observations (0.20 ± 0.03). The strong sensitivity of ERFaciSW to the CFODD slope provides a useful constraint on highly uncertain warm rain processes, whereby ERFaciSW, constrained by MODIS-CloudSat, is estimated by calculating the intercept of the linear association between the ERFaciSW and the CFODD slopes, using the MODIS-CloudSat CFODD slope as a reference.

Beall, Charlotte M. (ORCID:0000000311370835)↗
DOE OSTI2023

General Multifidelity Surrogate Models: Framework and Active-Learning Strategies for Efficient Rare Event Simulation

Estimating the probability of failure for complex real-world systems using high-fidelity computational models is often prohibitively expensive, especially when the probability is small. Exploiting low-fidelity models can make this process more feasible, but merging information from multiple low-fidelity and high-fidelity models poses several challenges. Here, this paper presents a robust multi-fidelity surrogate modeling strategy in which the multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled using an active learning strategy using an on-the-fly model adequacy assessment set within a subset simulation framework for efficient reliability analysis. The multi-fidelity surrogate is assembled by first applying a Gaussian process correction to each low-fidelity model and assigning a model probability based on the model's local predictive accuracy and cost. Three strategies are proposed to fuse these individual surrogates into an overall surrogate model based on model averaging and deterministic/stochastic model selection. The strategies also dictate which model evaluations are necessary. No assumptions are made about the relationships between low-fidelity models, while the high-fidelity model is assumed to be the most accurate and most computationally expensive model. Through two analytical and two numerical case studies, including a case study evaluating the failure probability of Tristructural isotropic-coated (TRISO) nuclear fuels, the algorithm is shown to be highly accurate while drastically reducing the number of high-fidelity model calls (and hence computational cost).

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Projecting U.S. coastal storm surge risks and impacts with deep learning

Storm surge is one of the deadliest hazards posed by tropical cyclones (TCs), yet assessing its current and future risk is difficult due to the phenomenon’s rarity and physical complexity. Recent advances in artificial intelligence applications to natural hazard modeling suggest a new avenue for addressing this problem. We develop a deep learning storm surge model to efficiently estimate coastal surge risk in the United States from 900 000 synthetic TC events, accounting for projected changes in TC behavior and sea levels. The derived historical 100 year surge (the event with a 1% yearly exceedance probability) agrees well with historical observations and other modeling techniques. When coupled with an inundation model, we find that heightened TC intensities and sea levels by the end of the century result in a 50% increase in population at risk. Key findings include markedly heightened risk in Florida, and critical thresholds identified in Georgia and South Carolina.

RAFT↗