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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Observations Pertaining to Precipitation within the Northeast Pacific Stratocumulus-to-Cumulus Transition

Three genuine stratocumulus-to-cumulus transitions sampled during the Cloud System Evolution over the Trades (CSET) campaign are documented. The focus is on Lagrangian evolution of in situ precipitation, thought to exceed radar/lidar retrieved values because of Mie scattering. Two of the three initial stratocumulus cases are pristine [cloud droplet number concentrations ($N_d$) of ~22 cm –3 ] but occupied boundary layers of different depths, while the third is polluted ($N_d$ ~ 225 cm –3 ). Hourly satellite-derived cloud fraction along Lagrangian trajectories indicate that more quickly deepening boundary layers tend to transition faster, into more intense but more occasional precipitation. These transitions begin either in the morning or late afternoon, suggesting that preceding night processes can precondition or delay the inevitable transition. The precipitation shifts toward larger drop sizes throughout the transition as the boundary layers deepen, with aerosol concentrations only diminishing in two of the three cases. Ultraclean ($N_d$ < 1 cm –3 ) cumulus clouds evolved from pristine stratocumulus cloud with unusually high precipitation rates occupying a shallow, well-mixed boundary layer. Results from a simple one-dimensional evaporation model and from radar/lidar retrievals suggest subcloud evaporation likely increases throughout the transition. This, coupled with larger drop sizes capable of lowering the latent cooling profile, facilitates the transition to more surface-driven convection. The coassociation between boundary layer depth and precipitation does not provide definitive conclusions on the isolated effect of precipitation on the pace of the transition. Differences between the initial conditions of the three examples provide opportunities for further modeling studies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

The Prevalence of Precipitation from Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ~ −38 °C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity, and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Polar clouds↗
NASA NTRS2021

The Prevalence of Precipitation From Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets, but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice-nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ∼−38 ∘C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. The results here also demonstrate that the observed abundance of mixed-phase clouds can vary substantially with instrument sensitivity and methodology. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Supercooled clouds↗
NASA NTRS2002

Convective Systems Over the Japan Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Wintertime observations of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) over the Sea of Japan - 2001 (WMO-01) were collected from January 12 to February 1, 2001. One of the major objectives is to better understand and forecast snow systems and accompanying disturbances and the associated key physical processes involved in the formation and development of these disturbances. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during WMO-01 provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with winter storms over the Sea of Japan region. WMO-01 also provided estimates of the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). The vertical integrals of Q1 and Q2 are equal to the surface precipitation rates. The horizontal and vertical adjective components of Q1 and Q2 can be used as large-scale forcing for the Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM (typically run with a 1-km grid size). The GCE model has sophisticated microphysics and allows explicit interactions between clouds, radiation, and surface processes. It will be used to understand and quantify precipitation processes associated with wintertime convective systems over the Sea of Japan (using data collected during the WMO-01). This is the first cloud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE model-simulated WMO-01 results will also be compared to other GCE model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., South China Sea, west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗
DOE OSTI2025

Quantifications of growth rate and particle size of magnesium silicate hydrate cement using small‐angle X‐ray scattering

The focus of recent research on cement binders has shifted to alternatives such as magnesium silicate hydrate (M-S-H) to mitigate the environmental impact of conventional concrete production. However, a detailed understanding of the morphology and growth rate of M-S-H, which informs its applicability as a cementing agent, is lacking. These properties are important as they influence cement hydration and consequently the development of macroscopic properties. Here, in this study, the particle size distribution and growth rate of M-S-H synthesized by mixing aqueous stock solutions were analyzed using synchrotron-based small-angle X-ray scattering. The reaction solutions contained dissolved magnesium and silicon with concentrations ranging from 2 to 500 mM, corresponding to saturation indices with respect to M-S-H endmembers, M 0.75 -S-H and M 1.50 -S-H, between 5.8 and 10.3. The precipitation rates of M-S-H align with affinity-based kinetic models and can be described by the following equations: For M 0.75 -S-H: 𝑟 M 0.75 −S−H =10 −9.54±0.70 ⁢(Ω$^{0.59±0.08}_{M_{0.75}⁢\textrm{SH}}$−1), and for M 1.50 -S-H: 𝑟 M 1.50 −S−H =10 −7.56±0.37 ⁢(Ω$^{0.34±0.04}_{M_{1.50}⁢\textrm{SH}}$−1), where 𝑟 is the rate in mol/L/s, and Ω represents the saturation ratio with respect to M-S-H. Moreover, we observed that changing the [Mg]/[Si] ratio affects particle size, a trend that cannot be fully explained by changes in the saturation index alone. These insights are critical for improving the predictability and control of cementation in concrete that utilizes M-S-H-based binders.

M-S-H↗
NASA NTRS2024

Merged and Gridded GPM and Atmospheric River Data Product

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Mission Core Observatory satellite launched in 2014 as a joint mission between National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) and JAXA. Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) has, since that time, provided continuous, valuable dual-frequency radar and passive microwave radiometer observations. Here, we introduce a gridded data set of collocated GPM Core Observatory observational products merged with a reanalysis-derived Atmospheric river (AR) data set in the North Atlantic and North Pacific sectors. The three data sets that are merged and gridded are: (a) the NASA Goddard Profiling (GPROF) precipitation product, which uses GPM passive microwave radiometer observations to derive surface precipitation rates, (b) a water vapor data product derived from the GPM Core Observatory radiometer, provided by Remote Sensing Systems (RSS), and (c) the Mattingly et al. (2018, https://doi.org/10.1029/2018jd028714) AR data set that is specifically tuned to the high-latitude regions. This novel merged data set spans from May 2014 to December 2022 with plans to update annually through 2026 at minimum. This gridded product combines RSS passive water vapor and precipitation estimates with coincident AR detection. This data product benefits the scientific community by providing (a) user-friendly gridded satellite data compared to standard satellite data sets, while maintaining high temporal resolution, and (b) coincident satellite observations to assess the link between ARs and precipitation.

Marian E Mateling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Analysis of the Frequency of Extreme Precipitation Events at Los Alamos National Laboratory

The Environmental Protection and Compliance (EPC) Storm Water Permitting and Compliance Program is currently updating its stormwater compliance standards for the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Engineering Standards Manual (2015) and is addressing the required current meteorological data needed for storm water applications. Information on the frequency of extreme precipitation events at LANL is needed. In response to this request, LANL Meteorology & Air Quality (MAQ) was tasked to estimate the frequency of extreme precipitation events. An earlier study by Foley (2012) which estimated extreme precipitation rates at LANL for a set of duration periods and average recurrence intervals (return periods) was evaluated. However, it was determined that this study would not be helpful since its technical support documentation was unavailable and the meteorological data and the methodology employed were not well understood. This led to the need to develop a new peer-reviewed methodology. This report documents the development of the new methodology and the application of a temporally representative precipitation dataset from February 1990 through December 2018, monitored at the official LANL meteorological station, Technical Area (TA)-6, to develop the frequency of extreme precipitation events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Newly Released GPCP Version 3.2 Global Precipitation Datasets at NASA GES DISC

The Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) is the precipitation component of an internationally coordinated set of (mainly) satellite-based global products dealing with the Earth's water and energy cycles, under the auspices of the Global Water and Energy Experiment (GEWEX) Data and Assessment Panel (GDAP) of the World Climate Research Program. As the follow-on to the GPCP Version 2.X products, GPCP Version 3 (GPCP V3.2) seeks to continue the production of long, homogeneous precipitation record using modern input and calibration datasets. The GPCP V3.2 provides globally complete analyses of surface precipitation on a 0.5°x 0.5° latitude/longitude grid at both monthly and daily intervals, respectively covering 1983 to the present and June 2000 to the present. New data fields have been introduced to better characterize the precipitation, particularly including an estimate of the fraction of the precipitation that is liquid (rain) in both the Monthly and Daily, and a Quality Index for the Monthly. Compared to the operational GPCP V2.3 Monthly, the V3.2 Monthly provides a more reasonable climatology in the Southern Ocean, and increases the global average precipitation by about 4.46%, which is in line with recommendations of recent assessments. However, the two versions have comparable global and regional trends for 1983-2020. Compared to the operational One-Degree Daily (Version 1.3) product, the V3.2 Daily better represents the histogram of precipitation rates, particularly at high values. In this presentation, we will present the latest GPCP V3.2 daily and monthly datasets archived and distributed at NASA Goddard Earth Sciences (GES) Data and Information Services Center (DISC) along with examples from NASA Giovanni.

Precipitation↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multifaceted aerosol effects on precipitation

Aerosols have been proposed to influence precipitation rates and spatial patterns from scales of individual clouds to the globe. However, large uncertainty remains regarding the underlying mechanisms and importance of multiple effects across spatial and temporal scales. Here, in this study, we review the evidence and scientific consensus behind these effects, categorized into radiative effects via modification of radiative fluxes and the energy balance, and microphysical effects via modification of cloud droplets and ice crystals. Broad consensus and strong theoretical evidence exist that aerosol radiative effects (aerosol–radiation interactions and aerosol–cloud interactions) act as drivers of precipitation changes because global mean precipitation is constrained by energetics and surface evaporation. Likewise, aerosol radiative effects cause well-documented shifts of large-scale precipitation patterns, such as the intertropical convergence zone. The extent of aerosol effects on precipitation at smaller scales is less clear. Although there is broad consensus and strong evidence that aerosol perturbations microphysically increase cloud droplet numbers and decrease droplet sizes, thereby slowing precipitation droplet formation, the overall aerosol effect on precipitation across scales remains highly uncertain. Global cloud-resolving models provide opportunities to investigate mechanisms that are currently not well represented in global climate models and to robustly connect local effects with larger scales. This will increase our confidence in predicted impacts of climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Urban weather modeling using WRF: linking physical assumptions, code implementation, and observational needs

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model includes urban schemes that simulate the influence of urban surfaces on the atmosphere using parameterizations for flux, and radiative exchanges. Three core schemes – the Bulk urban parameterization, Single-Layer Urban Canopy Model (SLUCM), and Multi-Layer Urban Canopy Model (MLUCM) – represent increasing levels of complexity. Although the parameterizations within these urban schemes are described in the literature, their specific implementation remains poorly documented, thus slowing down model development efforts. This manuscript provides a roadmap to the three urban schemes in WRF version 4.5.2, presenting equations using the same symbols as in the model code, along with references to code lines, and including graphics and explanations that connect the code to its physical foundations. Our thorough review of the urban parameterizations implemented in WRF version 4.5.2 highlighted a handful of parameters that may introduce discontinuities in simulations: (i) in the SLUCM, a 1 mm h −1 rain rate threshold is employed to switch between two minimum moisture availability parameterizations, thus impacting latent heat flux calculations; (ii) in the SLUCM a threshold is used to partition shortwave radiation into direct and diffuse components; (iii) in all three urban schemes, the bulk Richardson number is employed to select the similarity function, which influences the vertical distribution of heat and momentum. We also identified a highly simplified treatment of the radiative balance on roof surfaces. The implications of these simplifications can be assessed through targeted observations across relevant conditions, including varying precipitation rates, cloud cover, and transitions between stability regimes. Furthermore, the widespread application of the Monin-Obukhov similarity theory in these urban schemes warrants model evaluation under highly stable and unstable conditions and in heterogeneous urban settings with variable land cover and building heights on scales finer than model resolution. To address these challenges, we offer guidance on observational strategies, emphasizing the need for multi-parametric measurements to capture potential compensating biases and multi-height measurements that align with the levels where quantities are diagnostic and prognosed in the model (i.e., the lowest atmospheric level of the WRF model). Finally, our inspection of the code revealed implementation bugs that have now been corrected in WRF versions 4.6.0 and 4.6.1. Sensitivity tests over the Atlanta urban area show that these corrections affect surface temperatures, underscoring the importance of performing rigorous documentation and verification of the implementation of parameterizations in model code.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2022

Direct Comparisons Between GPM-DPR and CloudSat Snowfall Retrievals

Two spaceborne radars currently in orbit enable the sampling of snowfall near the surface and throughout the atmospheric column, namely, CloudSat’s Cloud Profiling Radar (CPR) and the Global Precipitation Measurement mission’s Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (GPM-DPR). In this paper, a direct comparison of the CPR’s 2C-SNOW-PROFILE (2CSP), the operational GPM-DPR algorithm (2ADPR) and a neural network (NN) retrieval applied to the GPM-DPR data is performed using coincident observations between both radars. Examination of over 3500 profiles within moderate to strong precipitation (Ka band ≥ 18 dBZ) show that the NN retrieval provides the closest retrieval of liquid equivalent precipitation rate R immediately above the melting level to the R retrieved just below the melting layer, agreeing within 5%. Meanwhile, 2CSP retrieves a maximum value of R at −15°C, decreases by 35% just above the melting layer, and is about 50% smaller than the GPM-DPR retrieved R below the melting layer. CPR-measured reflectivity shows median reduction of 2–3 dB from −15° to −2.5°C, likely the reason for the 2CSP retrieval reduction of R . Two case studies from NASA field campaigns [i.e., Olympic Mountains Experiment (OLYMPEX) and Investigation of Microphysics and Precipitation for Atlantic Coast-Threatening Snowstorms (IMPACTS)] provide analogs to the type of precipitating systems found in the comparison between retrieval products. For the snowfall events that GPM-DPR can observe, this work suggests that the 2CSP retrieval is likely underestimating the unattenuated reflectivity, resulting in a potential negative, or low, bias in R . Future work should investigate how frequently the underestimated reflectivity profiles occur within the CPR record and quantify its potential effects on global snowfall accumulation estimation.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2025

Atmospheric River Frequency-Category Characteristics Shape U.S. West Coast Runoff

Abstractrunoff response to atmospheric rivers (ARs) over the U.S. West Coast. We focused on runoff time series variations impacted by AR characteristics (e.g., category and frequency) and land preconditions during Northern Hemisphere cool seasons in the period of 1940–2023. Results show that high-category ARs significantly increase local runoff with higher hourly precipitation rates leading to a greater incremental rate and peak runoff. Extreme runoff increases greatly with the AR category with an increase rate up to 12.5 times stronger than non-extreme runoff. Besides the AR category, land preconditions such as soil moisture and snowpack also play crucial roles in modulating runoff response. We found that runoff induced by weak-category ARs is more sensitive to land preconditions than high-category ARs, with high peak runoff occurring when soil is nearly saturated. Additionally, more than 50% of high-peak-runoff events in snow-covered grid cells are associated with rain-on-snow events particularly for the events associated with weaker ARs. Regression analysis reveals that AR precipitation and land preconditions jointly influence runoff, emphasizing the importance of including soil moisture and snowpack levels in AR impact assessments. The study also highlights the intensified runoff response to back-to-back ARs with short intervals, which may become more frequent with climate warming, posing increased flood risks via facilitating wet soil conditions. Our findings have significant implications for AR risk predictions and the development of prediction models for AR-induced runoff.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

Enhancing Consistency of Microphysical Properties of Precipitation Across the Melting Layer in the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar Data

Stratiform rain and the overlying ice play crucial roles in Earth's climate system. From a microphysics standpoint, water mass flux primarily depends on two variables: particles' concentration and their mass. The Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) on the Global Precipitation Measurement mission core satellite is a spaceborne instrument capable of estimating these two quantities through dual-wavelength measurements. In this study, we evaluate bulk statistics on the ice particle properties derived from dual-wavelength radar data in relation to the properties of rain underneath. Specifically, we focus on DPR observations over stratiform precipitation, characterized by columns exhibiting a prominent bright band, where the melting layer can be easily detected. Our analysis reveals a large increase in the retrieved mass flux as we transition from the ice to the rain phase in the official DPR product. This observation is in disagreement with our expectation that mass flux should remain relatively stable across the bright band in cold-rain conditions. To address these discrepancies, we propose an alternative retrieval algorithm that ensures a gradual transition of Dm (mean mass-weighted particle melted-equivalent diameter) and the precipitation rate across the melting zone. This approach also helps in estimating bulk ice density above the melting level. These findings demonstrate that DPR observations can not only quantify ice particle content and their size above stratiform rain regions but also estimate bulk density, provided uniform conditions that minimize uncertainties related to partial beam filling.

radar measurements from space↗
DOE OSTI2023

Constraining the Multiscale Structure of Geophysical Fields in Machine Learning: The Case of Precipitation

The use of deep-learning algorithms for estimating the value of geophysical variables from remotely sensed information is rapidly expanding. The typical objective function minimized in such algorithms is the mean square error (MSE), which is known to lead to smooth estimates with compressed dynamical range as compared to the true distribution of the variable of interest. Here, we introduce and evaluate alternative objective functions, focusing on the retrieval of precipitation rates from satellite passive microwave radiometric measurements using a deep convolutional neural network. For this testbed application, the results show that explicitly imposing the preservation of the statistical distribution and spatial wavelet power spectrum of the target variable allows to accurately reproduce extreme values and sharp gradients across multiple scales in this study.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

NASA GPM Status and Future Activities

The joint U.S.-Japan Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission is approaching a decade of operations, and continues to pursue research, dataset production, and outreach related to precipitation. One key activity over the last year was the release of an improved “Version 07” of all GPM precipitation and latent heating products. This talk summarizes key improvements to the GPM products for which NASA has lead responsibility and provides some examples of the changes between Versions 06 and 07 in algorithm performance. One important operational change that affected Version 07 is that the scanning strategy for the Ka-band radar channel changed in May 2018; all products that depend on Ka were revised to accommodate this change. For example, in Version 07 the Goddard Profiling (GPROF) algorithm has implemented improvements in regions where orographic enhancement and suppression take place and where the surface is snowy/icy, and again covers radiometers reaching back to 1987. The Combined Radar Radiometer Algorithm (CORRA) now incorporates modified drop-size distribution constraints that substantially reduce bias. Revisions to the Convective-Stratiform Heating (CSH) algorithm employ new radiative transfer retrievals as well as accounting for terrain in the vertical coordinates. Each algorithm was adjusted to ensure continuity for each product across the boundary in 2014 between the predecessor Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) and the GPM Core Observatory. The U.S. Science Team’s Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) was upgraded to account for distortions in the probability density function of regional precipitation rates due to weighted averaging in the Kalman filter used for “morphing” the passive microwave data. The talk will conclude by considering major issues that require continued attention, including the use of machine learning algorithms, the operational challenge of swarms of “small”, perhaps short-lived satellites, and estimates of the remaining lifespan of the Core Observatory.

Global Precipitation Measuremen↗
DOE OSTI2020

Compiled TBS data from Oliktok Point from ICARUS, AVPOP, and POPEYE

The dataset encompasses QA/QC TBS data, including TBS altitude, atmospheric pressure, dew point, POPs number concentrations and mean aerosol size, relative humidity, temperature, equivalent potential temperature, equivalent temperature, and date and time. These data are provided per day for at least one TBS flight. Supporting data from the AMF3 aligned with the timestamps of the TBS data include cloud base distance from TBS, if the time corresponds to cloud base transit of the TBS, surface-based pressure, surface-based precipitation rate, surface-based UHSAS data, ceilometer cloud base height, KAZR cloud top height, and MWR liquid water content. Both POPS and UHSAS aerosol number concentrations are provided as: (1) absolute (i.e. concentrations for each instrument's total size range) and (2) the overlapping size range (i.e. the same size bins for both instruments).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

On the uncertainty of long-period return values of extreme daily precipitation

Methods for calculating return values of extreme precipitation and their uncertainty are compared using daily precipitation rates over the Western U.S. and Southwestern Canada from a large ensemble of climate model simulations. The roles of return-value estimation procedures and sample size in uncertainty are evaluated for various return periods. We compare two different generalized extreme value (GEV) parameter estimation techniques, namely L-moments and maximum likelihood (MLE), as well as empirical techniques. Even for very large datasets, confidence intervals calculated using GEV techniques are narrower than those calculated using empirical methods. Furthermore, the more efficient L-moments parameter estimation techniques result in narrower confidence intervals than MLE parameter estimation techniques at small sample sizes, but similar best estimates. It should be noted that we do not claim that either parameter fitting technique is better calibrated than the other to estimate long period return values. While a non-stationary MLE methodology is readily available to estimate GEV parameters, it is not for the L-moments method. Comparison of uncertainty quantification methods are found to yield significantly different estimates for small sample sizes but converge to similar results as sample size increases. Finally, practical recommendations about the length and size of climate model ensemble simulations and the choice of statistical methods to robustly estimate long period return values of extreme daily precipitation statistics and quantify their uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2017

Extreme Storms

Key Findings: 1. Human activities have contributed substantially to observed ocean-atmosphere variability in the Atlantic Ocean (medium confidence), and these changes have contributed to the observed upward trend in North Atlantic hurricane activity since the 1970s (medium confidence). 2. Both theory and numerical modeling simulations generally indicate an increase in tropical cyclone (TC) intensity in a warmer world, and the models generally show an increase in the number of very intense TCs. For Atlantic and eastern North Pacific hurricanes and western North Pacific typhoons, increases are projected in precipitation rates (high confidence) and intensity (medium confidence). The frequency of the most intense of these storms is projected to increase in the Atlantic and western North Pacific (low confidence) and in the eastern North Pacific (medium confidence). 3. Tornado activity in the United States has become more variable, particularly over the 2000s, with a decrease in the number of days per year with tornadoes and an increase in the number of tornadoes on these days (medium confidence). Confidence in past trends for hail and severe thunderstorm winds, however, is low. Climate models consistently project environmental changes that would putatively support an increase in the frequency and intensity of severe thunderstorms (a category that combines tornadoes, hail, and winds), especially over regions that are currently prone to these hazards, but confidence in the details of this projected increase is low. 4. There has been a trend toward earlier snowmelt and a decrease in snowstorm frequency on the southern margins of climatologically snowy areas (medium confidence). Winter storm tracks have shifted northward since 1950 over the Northern Hemisphere (medium confidence). Projections of winter storm frequency and intensity over the United States vary from increasing to decreasing depending on region, but model agreement is poor and confidence is low. Potential linkages between the frequency and intensity of severe winter storms in the United States and accelerated warming in the Arctic have been postulated, but they are complex, and, to some extent, contested, and confidence in the connection is currently low. 5. The frequency and severity of landfalling "atmospheric rivers" on the U.S. West Coast (narrow streams of moisture that account for 30 percent to 40 percent of the typical snowpack and annual precipitation in the region and are associated with severe flooding events) will increase as a result of increasing evaporation and resulting higher atmospheric water vapor that occurs with increasing temperature. (Medium confidence)

Kossin, J. P.↗