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At least 163 records · Page 9

Technoeconomic Assessment of a Sequential Step-Leaching Process for Rare Earth Element Extraction from Acid Mine Drainage Precipitates

Herein, Coal waste products have been studied as a new source of Rare Earth Elements (REEs) and other Critical Minerals (CM) essential for the development of renewable energy technologies, but the economic viability of these source materials is not well understood. This paper examines the technoeconomic performance of a novel process for rare earth element extraction from acid mine drainage precipitates (AMDp) in the Appalachian Coal Basin. The three phase extraction process includes excavation and transportation of AMDp, multi-phase pH driven step-leaching of REEs at ambient conditions, and commercial solvent extraction to produce a saleable grade rare earth oxide material that can be reduced to a pure metal. We estimate the life-cycle cost of bench-scale extraction of REEs from two representative Appalachian AMDp feedstock chemistries at between 4000 – 6000 $/kg of mixed REE concentrate produced. Both the AMDp composition and process parameters affect the profitability of REE extraction, with the REE concentration and distribution of REE in the feedstock, extraction and precipitation reagent consumption rates, and the potential for reagent recycling as the key variables. Economically profitable valorization of REE from AMDp will require a combination of continued process innovation and sizable financial incentives to substantially influence domestic supply of REEs.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Analysis of Three Types of Collocated Disdrometer Measurements at the ARM Southern Great Plains Observatory

To better provide U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s disdrometer deployment strategy and support ARM precipitation-related projects, this study analyzes 18 months of drop size distribution (DSD) observations from six collocated disdrometers deployed at the ARM Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. Emphasis is placed on quantifying the uncertainties related to DSD and rainfall properties using different types of disdrometers and different pairing concepts. The instrument sampling errors are also discussed, which improves our understanding of instrument-specific impacts on rainfall measurements. The key findings are as follows: 1) All the disdrometers show consistent behaviors overall regarding accumulated precipitation, mean rainfall rate, DSD parameters, and radar reflectivity values; and 2) Strong agreement is shown between three disdrometer types in terms of their DSDs for mid-size drop range (D = 1 mm-4 mm). The two-dimensional video disdrometer performance meets expectations as the most accurate unit among all. The paired disdrometer shows a reduced statistical sampling error in terms of drop counts and other DSD properties. A concept of deploying two or more collocated disdrometers side by side is recommended for future ARM field campaigns.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Advances in 3D Geologic Modeling of Alluvial Basins with a Focus on Facies and Property Modeling

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. There are hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in vertical separation between repository and water table and thus longer transport paths to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. A thick geologic host medium, which serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system, isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Incorporating Heterogeneity into 3D Geologic Models for the Alluvial Basin Reference Case

The unsaturated zone alluvium reference case is one of several geologic systems under consideration by the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Nuclear Energy for hosting repositories for spent nuclear fuel and associated waste (Sevougian et al., 2019). As noted by Mariner et al. (2018), the generic alluvial basin offers positive attributes that merit its consideration as a reference case by the Spent Fuel and Waste Science and Technology (SFWST) campaign. Hundreds of alluvial basins and sub-basins are scattered across the arid western United States (Figure 1-1). Precipitation and infiltration rates are relatively low with high evapotranspiration, resulting in deep regional water tables. Deep regional water tables allow for significant vertical separation between proposed repository depths and groundwater and thus longer transport paths from a hypothetical repository to an aquifer. Accumulations of alluvial sediments within these basins are typically on the order of hundreds of meters, and locally may exceed 1,000 m in thickness, as is the case for the Deming sub-basin in southern New Mexico. In alluvial basins, alluvium creates a thick geologic host medium that serves as the natural barrier system (NBS) in the conceptual model framework of a geologic disposal system and isolates the waste packages from receptors in the biosphere. Further, alluvial basin fill is typically comprised of stacked playa and lacustrine deposits along the basin axis (Perry et al., 2018). Characterized by low permeability, these layers protect the biosphere above the repository and the groundwater resources below the repository by limiting flow and transport of radionuclides.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Observed increase in the peak rain rates of monsoon depressions

Most extreme precipitation in the densely populated region of central India is produced by atmospheric vortices called monsoon lows and monsoon depressions. Here we use satellite and gauge-based precipitation estimates with atmospheric reanalyses to assess 40-year trends in the rain rates of these storms, which have remained unknown. We show that rain rates increased in the rainiest quadrant of monsoon depressions, southwest of the vortex center; precipitation decreased in eastern quadrants, yielding no clear trend in precipitation averaged over the entire storm diameter. In an atmospheric reanalysis, ascent increased in the region of amplifying precipitation, but we could not detect trends in the intensity of rotational winds around the storm center. These storm changes occurred in a background environment where humidity increased rapidly over land while warming was more muted. Monsoon lows, which we show produce less precipitation than depressions, exhibit weaker trends that are less statistically robust.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

PERSIANN Dynamic Infrared–Rain Rate Model (PDIR) for High-Resolution, Real-Time Satellite Precipitation Estimation

Precipitation measurements with high spatiotemporal resolution are a vital input for hydrometeorological and water resources studies; decision-making in disaster management; and weather, climate, and hydrological forecasting. Moreover, real-time precipitation estimation with high precision is pivotal for the monitoring and managing of catastrophic hydroclimate disasters such as flash floods, which frequently transpire after extreme rainfall. While algorithms that exclusively use satellite infrared data as input are attractive owing to their rich spatiotemporal resolution and near-instantaneous availability, their sole reliance on cloud-top brightness temperature (T b ) readings causes underestimates in wet regions and overestimates in dry regions—this is especially evident over the western contiguous United States (CONUS). We introduce an algorithm, the Precipitation Estimations from Remotely Sensed Information Using Artificial Neural Networks (PERSIANN) Dynamic Infrared–Rain rate model (PDIR), which utilizes climatological data to construct a dynamic (i.e., laterally shifting) T b –rain rate relationship that has several notable advantages over other quantitative precipitation-estimation algorithms and noteworthy skill over the western CONUS. Validation of PDIR over the western CONUS shows a promising degree of skill, notably at the annual scale, where it performs well in comparison to other satellite-based products. Analysis of two extreme landfalling atmospheric rivers show that solely IR-based PDIR performs reasonably well compared to other IR- and PMW-based satellite rainfall products, marking its potential to be effective in real-time monitoring of extreme storms. This research suggests that IR-based algorithms that contain the spatiotemporal richness and near-instantaneous availability needed for rapid natural hazards response may soon contain the skill needed for hydrologic and water resource applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Unseeded, spontaneous nucleation of spherulitic magnesium calcite

Most of the sedimentary carbonates deposited in the marine environments are composed of calcium carbonate minerals with varying amounts of incorporated Mg 2+ . However, understanding how interactions of impurities with carbonate and their incorporation affect sediments behavior remains a challenge. Here, a new insight is obtained by monitoring solution composition, morphology, and electrokinetic potential of carbonate particles formed in a spontaneous unseeded batch precipitation experiment using electrochemical and scanning electron microscopy methods. The solid composition and growth rate are extracted from changes in the bulk composition and fitted to chemical affinity rate law, revealing that the precipitation pathway consists of second-order dissolution and first-order precipitation. The molecular dynamics simulations show that the lattice strain induced by randomly substituting Ca 2+ by Mg 2+ stabilizes spherical nanoparticles and reduces their surface area and volume. Combining kinetics and thermodynamics insight, we conclude that variation in the carbonate bulk and interfacial energies, along with the solution supersaturation, lead to the dissolution-precipitation transformation pathway from Mg-rich to Mg-poor carbonate phase that preserves spherulitic morphology. Furthermore, our findings are relevant for long-standing questions of how impurities influence diagenesis of carbonate sediments and spherulitic carbonate particles' origin.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Reactive Transport Model for Mineral Scale Formation During Hydraulic Fracturing

Injection of water-based hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) into tight shale gas/oil formations can increase formation permeability and enhance production rates, but this process frequently causes mineral scale formation that can occlude pore space and hinder flow. To identify the most important factors that control the formation of mineral scales, we applied a novel global sensitivity analysis method—distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA)—to a reactive transport model (RTM) that was previously built and calibrated to simulate precipitation of barite [BaSO4] and iron (hydr)oxide [Fe(OH) 3 ] in shale matrices and on fracture surfaces. Reactive transport simulations were run with model parameters randomly sampled based on assigned uncertainties. Modeling results for barite and Fe(OH)3 formation were clustered using machine-learning algorithms. A list of ranked critical input parameters was obtained after statistical quantification of cumulative distribution functions of input parameters. We found that barite formation is most sensitive to the rate of sulfate ion generation, which is determined by the pyrite dissolution rate coefficient and oxidant availability. In addition, barite formation is sensitive to the initial amounts of barite in HFF and shale, followed by barite thermodynamics/kinetics. For Fe(OH) 3 formation, the ranked factors are Fe(OH)3 precipitation rate coefficients, initial HFF pH, initial Fe(OH) 3 amount in HFF, and oxidant availability. Overall, our results provide insights into managing mineral scale formation during hydraulic fracturing to enhance production. Meanwhile, this study serves as an example of global sensitivity analysis of RTMs using the efficient, straightforward, and open-source DGSA method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

How Snow Aggregate Ellipsoid Shape and Orientation Variability Affects Fall Speed and Self-Aggregation Rates

Snow aggregate shapes and orientations have long been known to exhibit substantial variability. Despite this observed variability, most weather and climate prediction models use fixed power-law functions that deterministically map particle size to mass and fall speed. As such, integrated quantities like precipitation and self-aggregation rates currently ignore nonlinear effects resulting from variation in shape and orientation for aggregates of the same size. This study therefore develops an analytic framework that couples an empirically based bivariate distribution of ellipsoid shapes to classical hydrodynamic theory so as to capture an appropriate dispersion of masses, projected areas, and fall speeds for an assumed size distribution. For a fixed aggregate size, shape variations produce approximately ±0.13 m s -1 standard deviation of fall speed which increases the mass flux fall speed dispersion by more than 100% over traditional microphysics models. This increased fall speed dispersion results predominantly from shape-induced mass dispersion whereas orientation and drag dispersion play a lesser role. Shape variations can increase mass- and reflectivity-weighted fall speeds by up to 60% of traditional models whereas self-aggregation rates can increase by a factor of 100 for very small slope parameters. This implies that aggregate shape variations effectively forestall the theorized onset of fall speed distribution narrowing and subsequent quenching of the aggregation process. As a result, it is likely that secondary ice formation is necessary to prevent an ever decreasing slope parameter. The mathematical theory presented in this study is used to develop simple correction factors for snow forecast and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Climate models project increasing precipitation in the US Southwest in 2024–2100

We analyzed the measured precipitation in the southwestern US and found that, from 1900 to 2024, precipitation decreased at an average rate of − 1.2 cm per year per 100 years. The most significant precipitation decreases occurred in the three-month period from February to April. At the same time, precipitation during the southwestern monsoon season (July, August, and September) remained relatively stable. The ensemble mean of all CMIP6 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6) climate models, along with the regression model incorporating anthropogenic aerosol (AER) and Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) as predictors, projects precipitation to increase from 2024 to 2100. This projected precipitation increase relies on the anticipated decrease in emissions of anthropogenic aerosols, which is associated with the transition from fossil fuel burning to renewable and nuclear energy sources.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Electrochemical Stability and Reversibility of Aqueous Polysulfide Electrodes Cycled Beyond the Solubility Limit

Batteries which use dissolved redox-active species, such as redox flow batteries (RFBs), are often considered to be constrained in their operation and energy density by the solubility limit of the redox species. Here, we show that soluble redox active electrolytes can be reversibly cycled deeply into the precipitation regime, permitting higher effective concentrations, energy densities, and lower costs. Using aqueous sodium polysulfide negative electrolytes cycled in the nominal Na 2 S 2 to Na 2 S 4 capacity range as an example, we show that the effective solubility can be increased from 5 M in the fully-dissolved state to as much as 10 M using the precipitation strategy. Stable cycling was observed at 8 M concentration over more than 1600h at room temperature. We also analyze the range of polysulfide electrochemical stability, and characterize the precipitate composition. This enhanced effective concentration approach may be generalized to other redox chemistries that utilize solubilized reactants, and may be especially useful for long-duration storage applications where slow charge-discharge rates allow equilibration of precipitated species with the redox-active solution.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Effects of coupling a stochastic convective parameterization with the Zhang–McFarlane scheme on precipitation simulation in the DOE E3SMv1.0 atmosphere model

Abstract. A stochastic deep convection parameterization is implemented into the US Department of Energy (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) Atmosphere Model version 1.0 (EAMv1). This study evaluates its performance in simulating precipitation. Compared to the default model, the probability distribution function (PDF) of rainfall intensity in the new simulation is greatly improved. The well-known problem of “too much light rain and too little heavy rain” is alleviated, especially over the tropics. As a result, the contribution from different rain rates to the total precipitation amount is shifted toward heavier rain. The less frequent occurrence of convection contributes to suppressed light rain, while more intense large-scale and convective precipitation contributes to enhanced heavy total rain. The synoptic and intraseasonal variabilities of precipitation are enhanced as well to be closer to observations. The sensitivity of the rainfall intensity PDF to the model vertical resolution is examined. The relationship between precipitation and dilute convective available potential energy in the stochastic simulation agrees better with that in the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) observations compared with the standard model simulation. The annual mean precipitation is largely unchanged with the use of the stochastic scheme except over the tropical western Pacific, where a moderate increase in precipitation represents a slight improvement. The responses of precipitation and its extremes to climate warming are similar with or without the stochastic deep convection scheme.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Strength mechanisms and tunability in Al-Ce-Mg ternary alloys enabled by additive manufacturing

Al-Ce-based alloys are promising candidates for additive manufacturing (AM) due to their hot-cracking resistance and because they do not require heat treatment to obtain precipitation strengthening. Rapid solidification rates enabled by AM methods can lead to enhanced mechanical properties; however, the strengthening mechanisms over large composition ranges were unclear. Here, combinatorial synthesis by directed-energy deposition (DED) and hardness measurements were used to rapidly map the composition-dependent strength of the ternary Al-Ce-Mg system. Tensile testing and microstructure characterization of selected compositions were performed to elucidate the compositional dependence of the strengthening mechanisms. Al 11 Ce 3 precipitates were present in all cases, and the maximum hardness (1.25 GPa) was measured for the Al-8Ce-10Mg composition. A combination of (i) Hall-Petch strengthening, based on the FCC-matrix-phase cell size; (ii) particle strengthening, based on Al 11 Ce 3 volume fraction and size; and (iii) solid-solution strengthening, based on Mg composition of the matrix phase, were used to account for the measured strengths. Vickers hardness is shown to correlate well with ultimate tensile strength in these alloys, highlighting the value of surface-based techniques for rapid screening.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Effects of Charged Solute-Solvent Interaction on Reservoir Temperature during Subsurface CO2 Injection

A short-term side-effect of CO2 injection is a developing low-pH front that forms ahead of the bulk water injectant, due to differences in solute diffusivity. Observations of downhole well temperature show a reduction in aqueous-phase temperature with the arrival of a low-pH front, followed by a gradual rise in temperature upon the arrival of a high concentration of bicarbonate ion. In this work, we model aqueous-phase transient heat advection and diffusion, with the volumetric energy generation rate computed from solute-solvent interaction using the Helgeson–Kirkham–Flowers (HKF) model, which is based on the Born Solvation model, for computing specific molar heat capacity and the enthalpy of charged electrolytes. A computed injectant water temperature profile is shown to agree with the actual bottom hole sampled temperature acquired from sensors. The modeling of aqueous-phase temperature during subsurface injection simulation is important for the accurate modeling of mineral dissolution and precipitation because forward dissolution rates are governed by a temperature-dependent Arrhenius model.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

X-Band Scanning ARM Precipitation Radar, CF/Radial Formatted, Quality Controlled

The X-band Scanning ARM Precipitation Radar (X-SAPR) is an X-band dual-polarization Doppler weather radar. The X-SAPR operates in a simultaneous transmit and receive (STAR) mode, meaning that the transmit signal is split so that power is transmitted on both horizontal and vertical polarizations at the same time. The X-SAPR transmitter is a 200 kW (peak power) magnetron. The receiver is based upon the Vaisala RVP-900 and runs Vaisala’s IRIS software. In addition to the first three Doppler moments (reflectivity, radial velocity, and spectra width), the X-SAPR also provides differential reflectivity, correlation coefficient, and specific differential phases. The dual-polarization variables enable estimates of rainfall rates and identification of precipitation types. At the Southern Great Plains site, three X-SAPRs surround the Central Facility, allowing the use of multi-Doppler velocity retrievals to estimate wind fields.

xsaprcfrqc↗

Connecting the Radiative Influences of Aerosol upon the Mass Flux Profiles of Shallow Cumuli across the Southeast Atlantic Ocean Basin and its Boundaries (Final Report)

The Atlantic Ocean covers approximately 25% of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it is home to a complex array of clouds and aerosols that have important influences on regional and global weather and climate. These influences must be accurately depicted in short range, medium range, seasonal, and climate forecast models. Conditions over the tropical Atlantic are particularly complex due to continental scale plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert and smoke from agricultural burning in Africa that drift across the Atlantic Ocean basin toward the Americas. These plumes are often found meandering in the lower atmosphere above shallow tropical clouds that form above the ocean surface, presumably mingling with these clouds on occasion due to convective mixing processes. Elevated dust and smoke particles absorb incoming sunlight and substantially warm the marine atmosphere in the layer in which they are present. This warming may alter the thermal stability of the marine atmosphere and may throttle or enhance the development of clouds, change their internal structure and the rate at which they precipitate. Alternatively, it may isolate the lower atmosphere from drier layers above enabling water vapor to accumulate near the ocean surface potentially leading to the development of deeper convection. Our study was organized around the principal concept of determining the impact of African smoke and dust plumes upon cloud development at ASI and understanding how a popular shallow convection parameterization used in models responds to the presence of this aerosol. We analyzed observations collected during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Mobile Facility #1 (AMF-1), which was deployed to Ascension Island (ASI) in Southeastern Atlantic for a one-year period. Ascension Island is immediately downwind from an African source of these plumes, but far enough removed to enable the lower atmosphere to have reacted to their presence. A main goal of our study was to compute radiative heating rate profiles over Ascension Island and along the trajectory from the biomass burning regions along coastal Africa to Ascension Island. To compute the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds, we employed observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from LASIC alongside aerosol optical properties from the Modern-era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). Radiative heating was also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We were successful in this effort and the resulting publication is already being cited despite its relatively short lifetime in the literature. The second part of our study involved the process-level representation of the clouds observed over the Southeastern Atlantic in models. Our initial task, upon which the balance of this portion of the study depended, was to evaluate the representativeness of the clouds observed by AMF-1. What orographic influence did Ascension Island have on the measured cloud structure? We set out to answer this question by trying to separate observations that were clearly indicative of orographic forcing from those that were representative of open ocean. The siting of AMF-1, which was 340-m above sea-level on the slope of a steep escarpment, proved demonstrably problematic for cloud process measurements. Despite considerable effort using multiple approaches including artificial intelligence (AI), we were unable to successfully compensate for the orographic forcing present at the AMF-1 site on ASI and, hence, produce process-level summaries of the convective mass flux representative of open ocean over the Southeastern Atlantic. Even though the project has officially ended, we are making a final attempt using two new types of clustering algorithm (i.e., AI) on the recommendation of a former student, who is an expert in this area. Since we have only recently begun to test these new AI schemes, the recommendations from the second part of our project outlined below are based on our experience at the time of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

GPM IMERG V07B and V06B: Evaluation Using Ground-Based Radar Observations and Application in Global Mesoscale Convective System Tracking

This study evaluates the latest Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG V07B) against its predecessor V06B, for studying mesoscale convective systems (MCSs). Both versions are compared using ground-based radar and rain gauge data from five meteorologically diverse regions: the contiguous United States (including eastern coastlines), Amazon rainforest, central Argentina mountains, equatorial Indian Ocean, and northern Australia across multiple temporal (0.5–6 hours) and spatial scales (0.1°–0.25°). An updated global MCS tracking dataset is developed by integrating satellite-observed infrared brightness temperature with IMERG V07B. Comparation of IMERG against radar observations reveals that IMERG demonstrates better performance in capturing the probability distribution and quantitative contributions of rainfall (from no-rain to intense-rain conditions) over tropical oceans than over land, with marked improvements in IMERG V07B for heavy-to-intense rain (> 10 mm h-1). Over land, systematic biases persist: IMERG tends to overestimate light-to-moderate rain (1–10 mm h-1) while underestimating heavy-to-intense rain. Additionally, aggregating IMERG to coarser resolutions (3-hourly or 0.25°) improves consistency with radar observations, outperforming the 1-hourly/0.1° resolution. The new IMERG V07B-based global MCS dataset exhibits consistent statistical characteristics with the V06B-based dataset, despite lower mean rain rates and reduced heavy precipitation contributions. These findings offer valuable insights for utilizing IMERG V07B in global precipitation studies, MCS characterization, and model evaluation.

Zhang, Sihan↗

Anticipating how rain-on-snow events will change through the 21st century: lessons from the 1997 new year’s flood event

The California-Nevada 1997 New Year’s flood was an atmospheric river (AR)-driven rain-on-snow (RoS) event and remains the costliest in their history. The joint occurrence of saturated soils, rainfall, and snowmelt generated inundation throughout northern California-Nevada. Although AR RoS events are projected to occur more frequently with climate change, the warming sensitivity of their flood drivers across scales remains understudied. We leverage the regionally refined mesh capabilities of the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (RRM-E3SM) to recreate the 1997 New Year’s flood with horizontal grid spacings of 3.5 km across California, with forecast lead times of up to 4 days, and across six warming levels ranging from pre-industrial conditions to +3.5° C. We describe the sensitivity of the flood drivers to warming including AR duration and intensity, precipitation phase, intensity and efficiency, snowpack mass and energy changes, and runoff efficiency. Our findings indicate current levels of climate change negligibly influence the flood drivers. At warming levels ≥ 1.7° C, AR hazard potential increases, snowpack nonlinearly decreases, antecedent soil moisture decreases (except where the snowline retreats), and runoff decreases (except in the southern Sierra Nevada where antecedent snowpack persists). Storm total precipitation increases, but at rates below warming-induced increases in saturation-specific humidity. Warming intensifies short-duration, high-intensity rainfall, particularly where snowfall-to-rainfall transitions occur. This study highlights the nonlinear tradeoffs in 21st-century RoS flood hazards with warming and provides water management and infrastructure investment adaptation considerations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗