Results for “predictive model” — Page 9

DOE OSTI2021

Battery Control Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time-of-Use and Demand Charge Battery Controller Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Time-of-Use and Demand Charge Battery Controller Using Stochastic Model Predictive Control: Preprint

Stationary batteries in residential and commercial buildings are often used to smooth customer load profiles and to lower customer electricity bills. Controllers for these battery systems should account for customer energy consumption, rate structures, and high internal battery temperatures, which can lead to reduced performance over the battery lifetime. It is important to consider the uncertainty in forecasting energy consumption and temperature, especially for customers with highly variable and uncertain loads. We propose a novel battery controller using stochastic model predictive control that accounts for these uncertainties and can handle complex rate structures, including demand charges. We show that the controller performs better than standard model predictive control when there is significant uncertainty in the forecast. We also show improvements in the performance with more accurate forecasts and with a more aggressive control strategy.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Reduced Switching Frequency Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) for DFIG

An enhanced Finite Control Set Model Predictive Control (FCS-MPC) strategy with a two-step prediction horizon for a Doubly-Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) is the focus of this paper. The DFIG and RL filter's discrete-time model is used in the proposed control scheme for a two-step prediction horizon of rotor and filter currents for the converter's eight possible switching states. Afterward, the control algorithm selects the ideal switching state, which minimizes currents' objective function. The proposed control scheme does not require a modulation stage for internal controllers. We use Lagrange extrapolations to predict the dynamic changes in currents. The switching frequency reduction is achieved by integrating an optimization constraint in the algorithm's cost function. Furthermore, the Total Harmonic Distortion level of currents is kept below 5%, according to IEEE Std 519-14. Obtained results reveal that the switching frequency of the DFIG converters is considerably reduced without losing control; it is reduced by 13.89KHz for the Grid Side Converter (GSC) and by 1.78KHz for the Rotor Side Converter (RSC).

doubly-fed induction generator↗

DOE OSTI2019

Non-linear Model Predictive Control of Wave Energy Converters with Realistic Power Take-off Configurations and Loss Model

Model Predictive Control (MPC) has been recognized as a well-developed control strategy for optimizing the performance of wave energy converters (WECs). The standard problem involves maximizing the absorbed power from oncoming waves while respecting motion constraints of the device and force constraints of the power take-off (PTO). The generated electrical power is then calculated by assuming an ideal PTO with no power conversion losses or limitations to power flow. In this article, we remove the assumption of an ideal PTO and present four different control options that reflect unique combinations of PTO control and power flow constraints. We also recast the MPC problem to maximize the generated power instead of the absorbed power by accounting for the losses in the power train. Using a WEC with a hydraulic PTO, we develop a loss model suitable for controls optimization. Lastly, we illustrate the process of setting up the non-linear MPC problem and compare the performance of competing control strategies using a common benchmark based on annual energy captured at a reference site.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2021

Predictive Models of Genetic Redundancy in Arabidopsis thaliana

Abstract Genetic redundancy refers to a situation where an individual with a loss-of-function mutation in one gene (single mutant) does not show an apparent phenotype until one or more paralogs are also knocked out (double/higher-order mutant). Previous studies have identified some characteristics common among redundant gene pairs, but a predictive model of genetic redundancy incorporating a wide variety of features derived from accumulating omics and mutant phenotype data is yet to be established. In addition, the relative importance of these features for genetic redundancy remains largely unclear. Here, we establish machine learning models for predicting whether a gene pair is likely redundant or not in the model plant Arabidopsis thaliana based on six feature categories: functional annotations, evolutionary conservation including duplication patterns and mechanisms, epigenetic marks, protein properties including posttranslational modifications, gene expression, and gene network properties. The definition of redundancy, data transformations, feature subsets, and machine learning algorithms used significantly affected model performance based on holdout, testing phenotype data. Among the most important features in predicting gene pairs as redundant were having a paralog(s) from recent duplication events, annotation as a transcription factor, downregulation during stress conditions, and having similar expression patterns under stress conditions. We also explored the potential reasons underlying mispredictions and limitations of our studies. This genetic redundancy model sheds light on characteristics that may contribute to long-term maintenance of paralogs, and will ultimately allow for more targeted generation of functionally informative double mutants, advancing functional genomic studies.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

Model Predictive Control of the Exit Part Temperature for an Austenitization Furnace

Quench hardening is the process of strengthening and hardening ferrous metals and alloys by heating the material to a specific temperature to form austenite (austenitization), followed by rapid cooling (quenching) in water, brine or oil to introduce a hardened phase called martensite. The material is then often tempered to increase toughness, as it may decrease from the quench hardening process. The austenitization process is highly energy-intensive and many of the industrial austenitization furnaces were built and equipped prior to the advent of advanced control strategies and thus use large, sub-optimal amounts of energy. The model computes the energy usage of the furnace and the part temperature profile as a function of time and position within the furnace under temperature feedback control. In this paper, the aforementioned model is used to simulate the furnace for a batch of forty parts under heuristic temperature set points suggested by the operators of the plant. A model predictive control (MPC) system is then developed and deployed to control the the part temperature at the furnace exit thereby preventing the parts from overheating. An energy efficiency gain of 5.3% was obtained under model predictive control compared to operation under heuristic temperature set points tracked by a regulatory control layer.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2011

Prediction model of potential hepatocarcinogenicity of rat hepatocarcinogens using a large-scale toxicogenomics database

The present study was performed to develop a robust gene-based prediction model for early assessment of potential hepatocarcinogenicity of chemicals in rats by using our toxicogenomics database, TG-GATEs (Genomics-Assisted Toxicity Evaluation System developed by the Toxicogenomics Project in Japan). The positive training set consisted of high- or middle-dose groups that received 6 different non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens during a 28-day period. The negative training set consisted of high- or middle-dose groups of 54 non-carcinogens. Support vector machine combined with wrapper-type gene selection algorithms was used for modeling. Consequently, our best classifier yielded prediction accuracies for hepatocarcinogenicity of 99% sensitivity and 97% specificity in the training data set, and false positive prediction was almost completely eliminated. Pathway analysis of feature genes revealed that the mitogen-activated protein kinase p38- and phosphatidylinositol-3-kinase-centered interactome and the v-myc myelocytomatosis viral oncogene homolog-centered interactome were the 2 most significant networks. The usefulness and robustness of our predictor were further confirmed in an independent validation data set obtained from the public database. Interestingly, similar positive predictions were obtained in several genotoxic hepatocarcinogens as well as non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens. These results indicate that the expression profiles of our newly selected candidate biomarker genes might be common characteristics in the early stage of carcinogenesis for both genotoxic and non-genotoxic carcinogens in the rat liver. Our toxicogenomic model might be useful for the prospective screening of hepatocarcinogenicity of compounds and prioritization of compounds for carcinogenicity testing. - Highlights: >We developed a toxicogenomic model to predict hepatocarcinogenicity of chemicals. >The optimized model consisting of 9 probes had 99% sensitivity and 97% specificity. >This model enables us to detect genotoxic as well as non-genotoxic hepatocarcinogens.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2016

How Adverse Outcome Pathways Can Aid the Development and Use of Computational Prediction Models for Regulatory Toxicology

Efforts are underway to transform regulatory toxicology and chemical safety assessment from a largely empirical science based on direct observation of apical toxicity outcomes in whole organism toxicity tests to a predictive one in which outcomes and risk are inferred from accumulated mechanistic understanding. The adverse outcome pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a systematic approach for organizing knowledge that supports such inference. We argue that this systematic organization of knowledge can inform and help direct the design and development of computational prediction models that can further enhance the utility of mechanistic and in silico data for chemical safety assessment. Examples of AOP-informed model development and its application to the assessment of chemicals for skin sensitization and multiple modes of endocrine disruption are provided. The role of problem formulation, not only as a critical phase of risk assessment, but also as guide for both AOP and complementary model development described. Finally, a proposal for actively engaging the modeling community in AOP-informed computational model development is made. The contents serve as a vision for how AOPs can be leveraged to facilitate development of computational prediction models needed to support the next generation of chemical safety assessment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2017

Developing a predictive model for the chemical composition of soot nanoparticles

In order to provide the scientific foundation to enable technology breakthroughs in transportation fuel, it is important to develop a combustion modeling capability to optimize the operation and design of evolving fuels in advanced engines for transportation applications. The goal of this proposal is to develop a validated predictive model to describe the chemical composition of soot nanoparticles in premixed and diffusion flames. Atomistic studies in conjunction with state-of-the-art experiments are the distinguishing characteristics of this unique interdisciplinary effort. The modeling effort has been conducted at the University of Michigan by Prof. A. Violi. The experimental work has entailed a series of studies using different techniques to analyze gas-phase soot precursor chemistry and soot particle production in premixed and diffusion flames. Measurements have provided spatial distributions of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons and other gas-phase species and size and composition of incipient soot nanoparticles for comparison with model results. The experimental team includes Dr. N. Hansen and H. Michelsen at Sandia National Labs' Combustion Research Facility, and Dr. K. Wilson as collaborator at Lawrence Berkeley National Lab's Advanced Light Source. Our results show that the chemical and physical properties of nanoparticles affect the coagulation behavior in soot formation, and our results on an experimentally validated, predictive model for the chemical composition of soot nanoparticles will not only enhance our understanding of soot formation since but will also allow the prediction of particle size distributions under combustion conditions. These results provide a novel description of soot formation based on physical and chemical properties of the particles for use in the next generation of soot models and an enhanced capability for facilitating the design of alternative fuels and the engines they will power.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Chloride-induced corrosion of steel in cracked concrete—Part II: Corrosion rate prediction models

Chloride-induced corrosion rate (i{sub corr}) prediction models for RC structures in the marine tidal zone that incorporate the influence of crack width (w{sub cr}), cover (c) and concrete quality are proposed. Parallel corrosion experiments were carried out for 2¼ years by exposing one half of 210 beam specimens (120 × 130 × 375 mm long) to accelerated laboratory corrosion (cyclic wetting and drying) while the other half underwent natural corrosion in the tidal zone. Experimental variables were w{sub cr} (0, incipient crack, 0.4, 0.7 mm), c (20, 40 mm), binder type (PC, PC/GGBS, PC/FA) and w/b ratio (0.40, 0.55). The two proposed models (one each for accelerated and natural i{sub corr}) can aid not only in quantifying the propagation phase, but also provide a novel way to select c, w{sub cr} and concrete quality.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

A Generic Two-Vector Model Predictive Control for Hybrid Multilevel Converters

In this article, a generic two-vector model predictive control (TV-MPC) strategy is proposed for the hybrid multilevel converters (HMCs). The proposed method selects two optimal voltage vectors among all the vector candidates using a geometric positioning approach to reduce the computational burden, which is a common issue in the existing MPC methods for HMC. Then duty cycles of the two selected vectors are optimized to minimize the current tracking error, such that the current tracking performance can be enhanced compared with the conventional MPC. In addition, the voltages of the floating dc capacitors can be balanced by evaluating all switching sequences that belong to the optimal voltage vectors with optimal duty cycles. Here, the concept of the proposed TV-MPC is generic and applicable for any HMCs. A typical HMC based on active neutral-point-clamped topology is adopted as a case study in this work. Comprehensive simulation and experimental studies are performed on an all silicon-carbide HMC prototype to validate the effectiveness of the proposed control scheme.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2017

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalman filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2017

Utilization of Model Predictive Control to Balance Power Absorption Against Load Accumulation: Preprint

Wave energy converter (WEC) control strategies have been primarily focused on maximizing power absorption. The use of model predictive control strategies allows for a finite-horizon, multiterm objective function to be solved. This work utilizes a multiterm objective function to maximize power absorption while minimizing the structural loads on the WEC system. Furthermore, a Kalman filter and autoregressive model were used to estimate and forecast the wave exciting force and predict the future dynamics of the WEC. The WEC's power-take-off time-averaged power and structural loads under a perfect forecast assumption in irregular waves were compared against results obtained from the Kalman filter and autoregressive model to evaluate model predictive control performance.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2026

Predictive Model for Starlink Maritime Performance Using Multi-Horizon RandomForest

Low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite systems have become a crucial enabler of broadband access for maritime industries, where traditional networks are unavailable. However, the high mobility of LEO constellations and constantly changing weather conditions result in unpredictable link fluctuations, limiting the ability of maritime platforms to plan bandwidth usage proactively. To the best of our knowledge, no prior work has developed a short-term predictive model for maritime LEO connectivity using real experimental field measurements. This paper proposes a data-driven forecasting model that predicts future downlink throughput using multi-horizon RandomForest regression. The model is trained using real experimental coastal measurement data incorporating recent throughput history, network-layer indicators, and environmental variables. The proposed approach reduces mean absolute error by approximately 31% compared to a persistence baseline for 15-minute horizons. It maintains a measurable improvement at 30 minutes, despite increased stochasticity. These findings confirm that proactive bandwidth awareness is feasible on maritime platforms and can effectively support operational decisions such as adaptive streaming, routing, and resource scheduling. The performance gap between forecasting horizons also highlights the need for expanded offshore datasets to improve prediction robustness under harsher maritime environments.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predictive Models of Li-ion Battery Lifetime

It remains an open question how best to predict real-world battery lifetime based on accelerated calendar and cycle aging data from the laboratory. Multiple degradation mechanisms due to (electro)chemical, thermal, and mechanical coupled phenomena influence Li-ion battery lifetime, each with different dependence on time, cycling and thermal environment. The standardization of life predictive models would benefit the industry by reducing test time and streamlining development of system controls.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Model Predictive Control of Discrete-Continuous Energy Systems via Generalized Disjunctive Programming

Generalized Disjunctive Programming (GDP) provides an alternative framework to model optimization problems with both discrete and continuous variables. The key idea behind GDP involves the use of logical disjunctions to represent discrete decisions in the continuous space, and logical propositions to denote algebraic constraints in the discrete space. Compared to traditional mixed-integer programming (MIP), the inherent logic structure in GDP yields tighter relaxations that are exploited by global branch and bound algorithms to improve solution quality. In this paper, we present a general GDP model for optimal control of hybrid systems that exhibit both discrete and continuous dynamics. Specifically, we use GDP to formulate a model predictive control (MPC) model for piecewise-affine systems with implicit switching logic. As an example, the GDP-based MPC approach is used as a supervisory control to improve energy efficiency in residential buildings with binary on/off, relay-based thermostats. A simulation study is used to demonstrate the validity of the proposed approach, and the improved solution quality compared to existing MIPbased control approaches.

Bhattacharya, Arnab↗

DOE OSTI2015

Predicting Ecological Roles in the Rhizosphere Using Metabolome and Transportome Modeling

The ability to obtain complete genome sequences from bacteria in environmental samples, such as soil samples from the rhizosphere, has highlighted the microbial diversity and complexity of environmental communities. However, new algorithms to analyze genome sequence information in the context of community structure are needed to enhance our understanding of the specific ecological roles of these organisms in soil environments. We present a machine learning approach using sequenced Pseudomonad genomes coupled with outputs of metabolic and transportomic computational models for identifying the most predictive molecular mechanisms indicative of a Pseudomonad's ecological role in the rhizosphere: a biofilm, biocontrol agent, promoter of plant growth, or plant pathogen. Computational predictions of ecological niche were highly accurate overall with models trained on transportomic model output being the most accurate (Leave One Out Validation F-scores between 0.82 and 0.89). The strongest predictive molecular mechanism features for rhizosphere ecological niche overlap with many previously reported analyses of Pseudomonad interactions in the rhizosphere, suggesting that this approach successfully informs a system-scale level understanding of how Pseudomonads sense and interact with their environments. The observation that an organism's transportome is highly predictive of its ecological niche is a novel discovery and may have implications in our understanding microbial ecology. The framework developed here can be generalized to the analysis of any bacteria across a wide range of environments and ecological niches making this approach a powerful tool for providing insights into functional predictions from bacterial genomic data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗