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DOE OSTI2025

Towards a Deeper Fundamental Understanding of (Al,Sc)N Ferroelectric Nitrides

Density functional theory (DFT) calculations, within the virtual crystal alloy approximation, are performed, along with the development of a Landau-type model employing a symmetry-allowed analytical expression of the internal energy and having parameters determined from first principles, to investigate properties and energetics of Al1-xScxN ferroelectric nitrides in their hexagonal forms. These DFT computations and this model predict the existence of two different types of minima, namely, the fourfold-coordinated wurtzite (WZ) polar structure and a five-fold coordinated paraelectric hexagonal phase (denoted as H5), for any Sc composition up to 40%. The H5 minimum progressively becomes the lowest-energy state within hexagonal symmetry as the Sc concentration increases from 0 to 0.4. Furthermore, the model points to several key findings. Examples include the crucial role of the coupling between polarization and strains to create the WZ minimum, in addition to polar and elastic energies, and that the origin of the H5 state overcoming the WZ phase as the global minimum within hexagonal symmetry when increasing the Sc composition mostly lies in the compositional dependency of only two parameters-one linked to the polarization and another one being purely elastic in nature. Other examples are that forcing Al1-xScxN systems to have no or a weak change in lattice parameters when heating them allows us to reproduce their finite-temperature polar properties well and that a value of the axial ratio close to that of the ideal WZ structure implies a large polarization at low temperatures but not necessarily at high temperatures because of the ordered-disordered character of the temperature-induced formation of the WZ state. Such findings should allow for a better fundamental understanding of (Al,Sc)N ferroelectric nitrides, which may be used to design efficient devices having, e.g., low operating voltages.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

HydraGNN_Predictive_GFM_2026 - Ensemble of predictive graph foundation models for atomistic materials modeling

This release contains data and parameters of HydraGNN-based graph foundation models trained as a result of the work published in the pre-print "Exascale Multi-Task Graph Foundation Models for Imbalanced, Multi-Fidelity Atomistic Data" by M. Lupo Pasini et al. (https://arxiv.org/abs/2604.15380). We jointly train on 16 open first-principles datasets (544+ million structures covering 85+ elements) using a multi-task architecture with per-dataset heads and a scalable ADIOS2/DDStore data pipeline. On Frontier, we execute six large-scale DeepHyper hyperparameter optimization campaigns in FP64 and promote the top-performing message-passing models to sustained 2,048-node training, yielding a PaiNN-based lead model. The version of HydraGNN used to generate the outputs provided in this release is HydraGNN v5.0 (https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0) The list of datasets used for the training of the graph foundation model is the following: 1) Alexandria [1] 2) ANI1x [2] 3) MPTrj [3] 4) Open Catalyst 2020 (OC20) [4] 5) Open Catalyst 2022 (OC22) [5] 6) Open Catalyst 2025 (OC25) [6] 7) Open Direct ir Capture 2023 (ODAC23) [7] 8) Open Materials 2024 (OMat24) [8] 9) Open Molecules 2025 (OMol25) [9] 10) OMol25-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with zero total charge) 11) OMol25-non-neutral (subset of OMol25 that contains only molecules with non-zero total charge) 12) Open Polymers 2026 (OPoly2026) [10] 13) Nabla2DFT [11] 14) QCML [12] 15) QM7X [reference 13] 16) transition1x [14] Dataset references: [1] J. Schmidt et al., “A dataset of 175k stable and metastable materials calculated with the PBEsol and SCAN functionals,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 64, 2022. [2] J. S. Smith et al., “The ANI-1ccx and ANI-1x data sets, coupled-cluster and density functional theory properties for molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 7, p. 134, 2020. [Online]. Available: https: //www.nature.com/articles/s41597-020-0473-z [3] A. Jain et al., “Commentary: The Materials Project: A materials genome approach to accelerating materials innovation,” APL Materials, vol. 1, no. 1, p. 011002, 07 2013. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1063/1.4812323 [4] L. Chanussot et al., “Open catalyst 2020 (oc20) dataset and community challenges,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 11, no. 10, pp. 6059–6072, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.0c04525 [5] K. Tran et al., “Open catalyst 2022 (oc22) dataset and challenges for oxidation electrocatalysts,” ACS Catalysis, vol. 13, no. 5, pp. 3066–3084, 2023. [Online]. Available: https://doi.org/10.1021/acscatal.2c05426 [6] S. J. Sahoo et al., “The open catalyst 2025 (oc25) dataset and models for solid-liquid interfaces,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2509.17862, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2509.17862 [7] A. Sriram et al., “The open DAC 2023 dataset and challenges for sorbent discovery in direct air capture,” ACS Central Science, vol. 10, no. 5, pp. 923–941, 2024. [8] L. Barroso-Luque et al., “Open materials 2024 (omat24) inorganic materials dataset and models,” 2024. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2410.12771 [9] D. S. Levine et al., “The open molecules 2025 (OMol25) dataset, evaluations, and models,” 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2505.08762 [10] D. S. Levine et al., The open polymers 2026 (OPoly26) dataset and evaluations,” arXiv preprint arXiv:2512.23117, 2025. [Online]. Available: https://arxiv.org/abs/2512.23117 [11] K. Khrabrov et al., “Nabla2dft: A universal quantum chemistry dataset of drug-like molecules and a benchmark for neural network potentials,” in NeurIPS 2024 Datasets and Benchmarks Track, 2024. [Online]. Available: https://openreview.net/forum?id=ElUrNM9U8c [12] S. Ganscha et al., “The QCML dataset, quantum chemistry reference data from 33.5M DFT and 14.7B semi-empirical calculations,” Scientific Data, vol. 12, p. 406, 2025. [13] J. Hoja et al., “QM7-X, a comprehensive dataset of quantum-mechanical properties spanning the chemical space of small organic molecules,” Scientific Data, vol. 8, p. 43, 2021. [Online]. Available: https://www.nature.com/articles/s41597-021-00812-2 [14] M. Schreiner et al., “Transition1x - a dataset for building generalizable reactive machine learning potentials,” Scientific Data, vol. 9, p. 779, 2022. The folder "datasets_ADIOS2_format" contains the set of pre-processed datasets in Adaptable I/O System (ADIOS) format (https://www.exascaleproject.org/research-project/adios/) that have been used for the development and training of GFMs in this work. The "datasets_ADIOS2_format" directory contains 2 sub-directories, one for the version "v1" of the datasets and one for the version "v2" of the datasets. The version "v1" of the datasets provides values of the total energy as they are extracted from the original data as it was released by the respective institutions. The version "v2" of the datasets provides values of the energy that have been realigned. The realignment was performed by training a linear regression model that predicts the total energy as a function of the chemical composition of the atomistic structure, and then subtract such prediction from the original value of the total energy. Both folders "v1" and "v2" contain 16 sub-directories, each corresponding to an ADIOS2-formatted dataset The folder "DeepHyper-results" contains the configurational files and model's parameters for all the 186 HPO trials that were successfully completed by the scalable hyperparameter optimization (HPO) runs on Frontier. The content of the folder "DeepHyper-results" I structured as follows: 1) task-list.txt: list of mpnn name, jobid, and deephyper task id 2) gfm_${MPNN}_${JOBID}_0.${TASKID}: run directory with checkpoint files 3) gfm_${MPNN}: deephyper summary directory (*.csv) for each specific MPNN type 4) deephyper-experiment-${JOBID}: output and error logs for each job The file "deephyper-sorted.csv" contains the details of each HydraGNN model built and tested by HPO, obtained by merging the (*.csv) filed from each HPO run executed. Out of all the HPO trials, we selected 10 to continue the training of the respective HydraGNN models. Due to limited computational budget available in the LRN070 allocation we could not complete the training till convergence for all these 10 selected models. The folder "models" contains multiple sub-folders, one per each HydraGNN model trained. Each model sub-folder contains the parameters of each HydraGNN model, with multiple checkpoint-restarts. The list of sub-folders are as follows: 1) multidataset_hpo-BEST1-fp64 2) multidataset_hpo-BEST2-fp64 3) multidataset_hpo-BEST3-fp64 4) multidataset_hpo-BEST4-fp64 5) multidataset_hpo-BEST5-fp64 6) multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64 7) multidataset_hpo-BEST7-fp64 8) multidataset_hpo-BEST8-fp64 9) multidataset_hpo-BEST9-fp64 10) multidataset_hpo-BEST10-fp64 Within each one of these folders, additional auxiliary log files are provided with descriptions about how the training proceeded. The lead PaiNN-model is contained inside "multidataset_hpo-BEST6-fp64". The file "mlp_branch_weights" contains the parameters of the multi-layer perceptron (MLP) used to reconcile the predictions of the 16 output decoding heads of the HydragNN architectures. The MLP takes in input the chemical composition of the atomistic structure and predicts averaging weights to linearly mix the predictions of each output decoding head toward consolidating them into a single one. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 1.1 billion atomistic structures randomly generated. Each structures is associated with energy and forces predicted with the lead-PaiNN model combined with the MLP model for reconciliation of the multi-branch predictions generated by the 16 output decoding heads. The folder "1.1billion-structure-inference" contains 9,300 (*.tar.gz) subdirectories, one per Frontier compute node used to execute the inference at exascale. Once uncompressed, each (*.tar.gz) subdirectory contains an ADIOS2 (*.bp) file container, where each atomistic structure is stored as a PyTorch-Geometric Data object. The file "export_dataset_environment_variables.sh" contains the environment variables that need to be set before running the HydraGNN code to reproduce the results provided in this dataset release. The code that can be used to load the ADIOS2 files, load HydraGNN models, and run inference is available at: https://github.com/ORNL/HydraGNN/releases/tag/v5.0

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal Learning in Power Modules: Wavelet-Enhanced Forecasting of Thermomechanical Degradation

Detecting internal defects in power electronics packages is critical for their performance and reliability, especially under extreme operating conditions, as these defects can lead to catastrophic failure if not properly addressed. Confocal scanning acoustic microscopy (C-SAM) plays a key role in the nondestructive evaluation of bond layer degradation within a power electronics package by detecting defects such as delamination, voids, and cracks. However, accurately quantifying and predicting these defects from C-SAM images remains a significant challenge due to the low noise-to-signal ratio, which typically arises from both imaging process and bond patterns itself. In this paper, we explore machine learning strategies for processing C-SAM images and providing predictive models of defect growth. We use C-SAM images of sintered copper and sintered silver samples, which are obtained under accelerated thermal experiments, as the representative dataset for our study. We investigate the effect of Fourier transforms and wavelet transforms on these datasets to remove high-frequency noise and address noise across multiple scales with histogram equalization to enhance the contrast and improve the visibility of defects. As a result, defect boundaries can be clearly distinguished, enabling more accurate tracking of their growth over time. We then employ different time-series forecasting algorithms on the denoised images to formulate an image-based lifetime prediction model. Statistical models and deep-learning techniques are trained on images obtained in the early stages of thermal shock, and defect growth in the later stages is predicted. Our work serves as a preliminary attempt to improve the accuracy of lifetime prediction models of power electronics packages, which is critical under extreme operating environments.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗
DOE OSTI2024

Computer vision models enable mixed linear modeling to predict arbuscular mycorrhizal fungal colonization using fungal morphology

Abstract The presence of Arbuscular Mycorrhizal Fungi (AMF) in vascular land plant roots is one of the most ancient of symbioses supporting nitrogen and phosphorus exchange for photosynthetically derived carbon. Here we provide a multi-scale modeling approach to predict AMF colonization of a worldwide crop from a Recombinant Inbred Line (RIL) population derived from Sorghum bicolor and S. propinquum . The high-throughput phenotyping methods of fungal structures here rely on a Mask Region-based Convolutional Neural Network (Mask R-CNN) in computer vision for pixel-wise fungal structure segmentations and mixed linear models to explore the relations of AMF colonization, root niche, and fungal structure allocation. Models proposed capture over 95% of the variation in AMF colonization as a function of root niche and relative abundance of fungal structures in each plant. Arbuscule allocation is a significant predictor of AMF colonization among sibling plants. Arbuscules and extraradical hyphae implicated in nutrient exchange predict highest AMF colonization in the top root section. Our work demonstrates that deep learning can be used by the community for the high-throughput phenotyping of AMF in plant roots. Mixed linear modeling provides a framework for testing hypotheses about AMF colonization phenotypes as a function of root niche and fungal structure allocations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experimental demonstration of real-time electron temperature profile control in DIII-D

Future tokamak reactor operation will require the ability to maintain a given plasma scenario for extended periods of time. This will necessitate the capability to react to changes in the plasma state and return the plasma to the target scenario; the principal method to achieve this is through feedback control. Thus, it is necessary to develop and test feedback controllers for the plasma profiles that define a target scenario. In this work, a feedback controller for the electron temperature (Te) profile is tested experimentally in DIII-D. This experiment relied on the ability to ascertain the electron temperature profile in real time, which was achieved using an observer algorithm. The observer relies on both diagnostic data and a predictive model of the electron temperature profile evolution; this predictive model includes contributions from neural network surrogate models. Because of these dependencies, a number of capabilities needed to be added to the real-time PCS for DIII-D in order to support the Te profile control experiment. The neural network surrogates needed to be integrated into the PCS to be called in real time. An observer algorithm for the Te profile needed to be added and connected to the Thomson scattering system to allow access to the current state of the profile in real time. When tested, the observer was shown to produce Te profiles that are consistent with the shape of the Thomson scattering data while rejecting much of the noise in the diagnostic data. Finally, the controller itself was tested in real time. This experiment showed that the controller is capable of tracking the electron temperature target at locations across the spatial profile.

Morosohk, Shira [Oak Ridge Associated Universities↗
DOE OSTI2025

Data-Enabled Fusion Technology (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

Advancing Scientific Understanding in Fusion Energy and Machine Learning This research represented a significant step forward in machine learning (ML) applications for fusion energy experiments. The project integrated advanced data-driven modeling, optimization techniques, and artificial intelligence to enhance the predictive capabilities and operational efficiency of plasma-based fusion systems. Specifically, tasks focused on ML-enhanced diagnostics, operator guidance tools, and predictive modeling helped improve the ability to interpret complex fusion experiments. Key areas of advancement included: 1) data-driven plasma control, i.e., using ML algorithms to optimize experimental conditions and classify plasma behaviors based on historical data; 2) spectroscopy and diagnostics, i.e., applying AI models to extract previously inaccessible insights from experimental spectroscopy data; and 3) configuration mapping and operator guidance, i.e., developing a predictive framework to assist scientists in identifying the most effective experimental parameters, reducing reliance on manual adjustments. By refining these ML-driven techniques, the project contributed to the broader scientific community’s understanding of plasma dynamics and fusion energy viability. Technical Effectiveness and Economic Feasibility The methods investigated demonstrated high technical effectiveness, as reflected in milestones assessing the predictive accuracy, performance, and optimization of fusion configurations. The development of an Operator Guidance Tool (OGT), for example, led to more precise control of plasma conditions by learning from experimental data and offering real-time adjustments. From an economic standpoint, DeFT provided: 1) the ability to reduce trial-and-error experimentation, which lowered operational costs; 2) improved data interpretation methods, which enabled more efficient resource allocation in large-scale fusion research projects; and 3) the automation of key diagnostic tasks, which reduced manual labor and human error, increasing overall efficiency. 13 The final assessments of predictive models and optimization strategies demonstrated that these approaches were scalable and could be implemented across multiple fusion energy research programs. Public Benefit and Societal Impact This project contributed directly to the broader goal of achieving sustainable and commercially viable fusion energy, which had profound implications for clean energy production and climate change mitigation. The integration of AI-driven solutions into fusion research: 1) sped up scientific discovery, accelerating progress towards achieving energy breakthroughs; 2) reduced the cost of experimentation, making fusion research more accessible; and 3) provided a framework for future AI applications in high-energy physics, benefiting adjacent fields like space exploration, material science, and renewable energy. Additionally, by fostering collaborations between AI researchers and plasma physicists, this project promoted interdisciplinary innovation that could lead to broader applications beyond fusion research.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Preventive Power Outage Estimation Based on a Novel Scenario Clustering Strategy

The increasing occurrence of extreme weather events is challenging power grid operation. For extreme weather events, the system operator is responsible for estimating the power outages and scheduling the restoration resources. This paper proposes an outage evaluation framework to identify the possible unserved load profiles, vulnerable areas, and mobile energy adequacy. The outputs of an outage prediction model tool are used to generate numerous faulted line scenarios. Next, each scenario's nodal unserved load profile is obtained by solving a three-phase restoration model that considers repair crews and mobile energy resources (MERs). Then, a novel scenario clustering strategy is developed to cluster the unserved load profiles into multiple representative profiles which the system operator can focus on. Finally, case studies on a distribution system evaluate the damage caused by an extreme weather event and verify the effectiveness of the proposed scenario clustering strategy.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,POWER TRANSMISSION AND D↗
DOE OSTI2024

Nanosecond Transient Validation of Surge Arrester Models to Predict Electromagnetic Pulse Response

The impact of high-altitude electromagnetic pulse events on the electric grid is not fully understood, and validated modeling of mitigations, such as lightning surge arresters (LSAs) is necessary to predict the propagation of very fast transients on the grid. Experimental validation of high frequency models for surge arresters is an active area of research. Further, this article serves to experimentally validate a previously defined ZnO LSA model using four metal-oxide varistor pucks and nanosecond scale pulses to measure voltage and current responses. The SPICE circuit models of the pucks showed good predictability when compared to the measured arrester response when accounting for a testbed inductance of approximately 100 nH. Additionally, the comparatively high capacitance of low-profile arresters show a favorable response to high-speed transients that indicates the potential for effective electromagnetic pulse mitigation with future materials design.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Changes in the Regional Water Cycle and Their Impact on Societies

ABSTRACT Changes in “blue water”, which is the total supply of fresh water available for human extraction over land, are quite closely related to changes in runoff or equivalently precipitation minus evaporation, . This article examines how climate change‐driven recent past and future changes in the regional water cycle relate to blue water availability and changes in human blue water demand. Although at the largest scales theoretical and numerical model predictions are in broad agreement with observations, at continental scales and below models predict large ranges of possible future and runoff especially at the scale of individual river catchments and for shorter timescale subseasonal floods and droughts. Nevertheless, it is expected that the occurrence and severity of floods will increase and that of droughts may increase, possibly compounded by human‐driven non‐climatic changes such as changes in land use, dam water impoundment, irrigation and extraction of groundwater. Contemporary assessments predict that increases in 21st century human water extraction in many highly‐populated regions are unlikely to be sustainable given projections of future . To reduce uncertainty in future predictions, there is an urgent need to improve modeling of atmospheric, land surface and human processes and how these components are coupled. This should be supported by maintaining the observing network and expanding it to improve measurements of land surface, oceanic and atmospheric variables. This includes the development of satellite observations stable over multiple decades and suitable for building reanalysis datasets appropriate for model evaluation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Quantifying structural errors in cloud condensation nuclei activity from reduced representation of aerosol size distributions

Aerosol effects on clouds and radiation are the dominant contribution to uncertainty in radiative forcing relative to the pre-industrial atmosphere. While previous studies have assessed the impact of parametric uncertainty on modeled forcing, structural errors from the numerical representation of particle distributions have not been well quantified. Here we present a framework for quantifying error in aerosol size distributions and cloud condensation nuclei activity, which we apply to the widely used 4-mode version of the Modal Aerosol Module (MAM4). Box model predictions from the MAM4 are evaluated against the Particle Monte Carlo Model for Simulating Aerosol Interactions and Chemistry (PartMC-MOSAIC), a benchmark model that tracks the evolution of individual particles. We show that size distributions simulated by MAM4 diverge from those simulated by PartMC-MOSAIC after only a few hours of aging by condensation and coagulation in polluted conditions, which leads to large errors in modeled cloud condensation nuclei concentrations. We find that differences between MAM4 and PartMC-MOSAIC are largest under polluted conditions, where the size distribution evolves rapidly though aging by condensation of semi-volatile substances and coagulation among particles. These findings suggest that structural error in modeled aerosol properties contributes to the large inter-model variability in aerosol radiative forcing.

Fierce, Laura M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Presenting a Model to Predict Changing Snow Albedo for Improving Photovoltaic Performance Simulation

As photovoltaic (PV) deployment increases worldwide, PV systems are being installed more frequently in locations that experience snow cover. The higher albedo of snow, relative to the ground, increases the performance of PV systems in northern and high-altitude locations by reflecting more light onto the PV modules. Accurate modeling of the snow’s albedo can improve estimates of PV system production. Typical modeling of snow albedo uses a simple two-value model that sets the albedo high when snow is present, and low when snow is not present. However, snow albedo changes over time as snow settles and melts and a binary model does not account for transitional changes, which can be significant. Here, we present and validate a model for estimating snow albedo as it changes over time. The model is simple enough to only require daily snow depth and hourly average temperature data, but can be improved through the addition of site-specific factors, when available. We validate this model to quantify its ability to more accurately predict snow albedo and compare the model’s performance against satellite imagery-based methods for obtaining historical albedo data. In addition, we perform modeling using the System Advisor Model (SAM) to show the impact of changes in albedo on energy modeling for PV systems. Overall, our albedo model has a significantly improved ability to predict the solar insolation on PV modules in real time, especially on bifacial PV modules where reflected irradiance plays a larger role in energy production.

Pike, Christopher (ORCID:0000000155888033)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Transformer Neural Networks with Spatiotemporal Attention for Predictive Control and Optimization of Industrial Processes

In the context of real-time optimization and model predictive control of industrial systems, machine learning, and neural networks represent cutting-edge tools that hold promise for enhancing dynamic modeling. This work presents a novel transformer neural network architecture for real-time optimization and model predictive control. This network design includes a modified attention mechanism inspired by positional embedding attention from vision transformers and task-specific modifications to the input-output structure of the transformer’s decoder stack. Experiments were conducted using data from a 450 MW coal-fired power plant to evaluate this approach's effectiveness. The transformer neural network was compared with conventional recurrent models, including GRU and LSTM. The transformer exhibited a 6% increase in the R-squared (R2) value of predictions and an 83% reduction in mean squared error (MSE). Computation time was also reduced by 84% compared to conventional recurrent models.

Gallup, Ethan R.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Search for Higgs boson pair production in the $\mathrm{b}\overline{\mathrm{b}}\mathrm{WW}$ decay channel with two leptons in the final state using proton-proton collision data at $\sqrt{s}=13.6$ TeV

A search for Higgs boson pair production is presented, targeting final states where one Higgs boson decays to a bottom quark-antiquark pair and the other Higgs boson decays to two W bosons, both of which decay leptonically, to an electron or a muon, and a neutrino. For the first time, the search is conducted with proton-proton collision data from the LHC at $\sqrt{s}=13.6$ TeV, recorded with the CMS detector in 2022 and 2023 and corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 62 fb −1 . The results are consistent with the standard model predictions. An upper limit of 12.0 times the standard model prediction at 95% confidence level is set on the Higgs boson pair production cross section, with an expected limit of 18.5. The results are also used to constrain the strength of the trilinear self-coupling of the Higgs boson, as well as of the quartic coupling between two Higgs bosons and two vector bosons.

Hadron-Hadron Scattering↗
DOE OSTI2025

GRUMDN: A Multi-Task Model for Predicting Human Patterns-of-Life from Stay Transition Data

Understanding human patterns-of-life (PoL) is essential towards ensuring safe and secure indoor facility environment as well as outdoor urban environment. Prediction of human movement in between places of interest is vital in understanding human PoL. Movement between spaces maybe represented and detected in one of the two forms: 1) trajectories: locations measured at regular time intervals by mobile sensors, bluetooth or GPS sensors; or 2) stay transitions: semantic PoI (points of interest) and stay duration data measurable by eventbased sensors that collect data when a check-in or check-out event is detected. Stay transition data provides a more compressed data format compared to trajectories data, especially in situations with longer stay durations, while preserving the information necessary for PoL analysis. Now as introduced briefly in the paper, our deployed end application (Digital Twin of a facility with non-player characters, besides the interactive user in virtual reality) needed a well-performing and validated AI/ML model for simulating high quality stay transitions behavior. In this study we thus primarily present our findings with developing and validating that model, which is a multi-task neural network for stay transition prediction. The neural network consists of two heads, for corresponding two tasks of stay category prediction and stay duration prediction. We evaluated gated recurrent units and multi-layer perceptrons of varying network sizes for stay category prediction; while mixture density networks, noisy generator-only networks, and generative adversarial networks of varying network sizes for stay duration prediction. We have then evaluated four multi-task models, constructed by combining these specialized models, on their ability to predict stay transition data. We tested our models on datasets from two different cases: 1) a simulation-generated dataset of indoor movement within the HFIR (high flux isotope reactor) nuclear reactor facility at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); and 2) the GeoLife human mobility dataset of outdoor urban movement available in literature. Our results indicate that GRUMDN, which combines gated recurrent units (GRU) for stay category prediction task, and mixture density networks (MDN) for stay duration prediction task, did overall outperform other multitask models and the current state-of-the-art.

Gunaratne, Chathika [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000225088745↗
DOE OSTI2024

Automated Calibration for Rapid Optical Spectroscopy Sensor Development for Online Monitoring

An automated platform has been developed to assist researchers in the rapid development of optical spectroscopy sensors to quantify species from spectral data. This platform performs calibration and validation measurements simultaneously. Real-time, in situ monitoring of complex systems through optical spectroscopy has been shown to be a useful tool; however, building calibration models requires development time, which can be a limiting factor in the case of radiological or otherwise hazardous systems. While calibration time can be reduced through optimized design of experiments, this study approached the challenge differently through automation. The ATLAS (Automated Transient Learning for Applied Sensors) platform used pneumatic control of stock solutions to cycle flow profiles through desired calibration concentrations for multivariate model construction. Additionally, the transients between desired concentrations based on flow calculations were used as validation measurements to understand model predictive capabilities. This automated approach yielded an incredible 76% reduction in model development time and a 60% reduction in sample volume versus estimated manual sample preparation and static measurements. The ATLAS system was demonstrated on two systems: a three-lanthanide system with Pr/Nd/Ho representing a use case with significant overlap or interference between analyte signatures and an alternate system containing Pr/Nd/Ni to demonstrate a use case in which broad-band corrosion species signatures interfered with more distinct lanthanide absorbance profiles. Both systems resulted in strong model prediction performance (RMSEP < 9%). Lastly, ATLAS was demonstrated as a tool to simulate process monitoring scenarios (e.g., column separation) in which models can be further optimized to account for day-to-day changes as necessary (e.g., baseline correction). Ultimately, ATLAS offers a vital tool to rapidly screen monitoring methods, investigate sensor fusion, and explore more complex systems (i.e., larger numbers of species).

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring and modeling hydrologic conditions in Ukraine for hydropower generation

Study region: The Dnieper and Dniester Rivers of Ukraine. Study focus: The ongoing conflict in Ukraine has caused disruptions to electricity generation, of which hydroelectric sources contribute approximately 9 % to the country’s needs. With the takeover of the Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant by enemy forces, the loss of the Kakhovka hydroelectric dam, and the future impacts of the conflict on electricity generation unclear, it may be valuable for the Ukrainian government to better understand how it could leverage hydroelectric power sources in the near future. Unfortunately, measurements of river discharge throughout Ukraine ceased data collection in the late 1980’s to early 1990’s. To address this data gap, we developed a protocol that combined satellite-based time-series measurements of river width at seven locations throughout Ukraine from 2013 to 2023 with reanalysis data, climate-model predictions, and hydrologic models to both provide a means of monitoring a proxy for near-real-time discharge and also predict near-term (i.e., 2023–2030) hydrologic patterns for the region. New hydrological insights for the region: We ran new algorithms on 144 WorldView-2 and WorldView-3 satellite images to map rivers and extract width, one of which was validated against river gauge data located along the same river but in a neighboring country. Hydrologic models using two climate scenarios found minimal change in annual discharge at all sites, but magnitude and timing of peak discharge showed a moderate trend. The results suggest that hydropower is underutilized in Ukraine.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Use of Machine Learning Models for Predicting the Dielectric Strength of Gases

Technological advancements in high voltage systems have pushed sulfur hexafluoride (SF6) to its operational limits. Furthermore, this gas has other drawbacks including a high liquefaction temperature and a high global warming potential. Therefore, there has been an urgent need to find alternative gases with high dielectric strength (DS). In this work, density functional theory (DFT) is used to calculate molecular descriptors that are fed into an artificial neural network (ANN) and a random forest (RF). These machine learning (ML) models are then used to predict the DS for hundreds of molecules. A finite element model (FEM) is also used to calculate the electric field profile of multiple simple electrode geometries as the applied voltage to the system is increased. Results indicate that the random forest model has better generalization to unseen data than the neural network. The highest DS value predicted by the RF was 2.16 relative to the experimental DS of SF6. The results also demonstrate how choosing a gas with a higher DS and a geometry with minimal edges and corners can significantly increase the operating voltage of an electrical system. Due to its superior generalization, the RF represents the most promising path toward an accurate DS predictor once sufficient experimental data are available.

Mileski, Matthew [AFIT]↗