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At least 163 records · Page 9

A High-End Estimate of Sea Level Rise for Practitioners

Sea level rise (SLR) is a long-lasting consequence of climate change because global anthropogenic warming takes centuries to millennia to equilibrate for the deep ocean and ice sheets. SLR projections based on climate models support policy analysis, risk assessment and adaptation planning today, despite their large uncertainties. The central range of the SLR distribution is estimated by process-based models. However, risk-averse practitioners often require information about plausible future conditions that lie in the tails of the SLR distribution, which are poorly defined by existing models. Here, a community effort combining scientists and practitioners builds on a framework of discussing physical evidence to quantify high-end global SLR for practitioners. The approach is complementary to the IPCC AR6 report and provides further physically plausible high-end scenarios. High-end estimates for the different SLR components are developed for two climate scenarios at two timescales. For global warming of +2°C in 2100 (RCP2.6/SSP1-2.6) relative to pre-industrial values our high-end global SLR estimates are up to 0.9 m in 2100 and 2.5 m in 2300. Similarly, for a (RCP8.5/SSP5-8.5), we estimate up to 1.6 m in 2100 and up to 10.4 m in 2300. The large and growing differences between the scenarios beyond 2100 emphasize the long-term benefits of mitigation. However, even a modest 2°C warming may cause multi-meter SLR on centennial time scales with profound consequences for coastal areas. Earlier high-end assessments focused on instability mechanisms in Antarctica, while here we emphasize the importance of the timing of ice shelf collapse around Antarctica. This is highly uncertain due to low understanding of the driving processes. Hence both process understanding and emission scenario control high-end SLR.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

High-throughput mapping of the phage resistance landscape in E. coli

Bacteriophages (phages) are critical players in the dynamics and function of microbial communities and drive processes as diverse as global biogeochemical cycles and human health. Phages tend to be predators finely tuned to attack specific hosts, even down to the strain level, which in turn defend themselves using an array of mechanisms. However, to date, efforts to rapidly and comprehensively identify bacterial host factors important in phage infection and resistance have yet to be fully realized. Here, we globally map the host genetic determinants involved in resistance to 14 phylogenetically diverse double-stranded DNA phages using two model Escherichia coli strains (K-12 and BL21) with known sequence divergence to demonstrate strain-specific differences. Using genome-wide loss-of-function and gain-of-function genetic technologies, we are able to confirm previously described phage receptors as well as uncover a number of previously unknown host factors that confer resistance to one or more of these phages. We uncover differences in resistance factors that strongly align with the susceptibility of K-12 and BL21 to specific phage. We also identify both phage specific mechanisms, such as the unexpected role of cyclic-di-GMP in host sensitivity to phage N4, and more generic defenses, such as the overproduction of colanic acid capsular polysaccharide that defends against a wide array of phages. Our results indicate that host responses to phages can occur via diverse cellular mechanisms. Our systematic and high-throughput genetic workflow to characterize phage-host interaction determinants can be extended to diverse bacteria to generate datasets that allow predictive models of how phage-mediated selection will shape bacterial phenotype and evolution. The results of this study and future efforts to map the phage resistance landscape will lead to new insights into the coevolution of hosts and their phage, which can ultimately be used to design better phage therapeutic treatments and tools for precision microbiome engineering.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Solar Photovoltaics: Supply Chain Deep Dive Assessment

This is one of a series of reports and deep dive assessments produced in response to Executive Order 14017 “America’s Supply Chains,” which directs the Secretary of Energy to submit a report on supply chains for the energy sector industrial base. The Executive Order is helping the federal government to build more secure and diverse U.S. supply chains, including energy supply chains. Over the past decade, solar power has gone from an emerging, niche technology to a mature energy industry. By 2035, solar power could supply 40% or more of U.S. electricity demand, dramatically accelerating the decarbonization of buildings, transportation, and industry; and, if current technology trends continue, it could do so without increasing the price of electricity. The rapid expansion of solar energy has the potential to yield broad benefits in the form of economic activity and workforce development. The solar industry already employs roughly 230,000 people in the United States, at an average wage that is higher than the national average for most comparable positions. By decarbonizing the electricity sector by 2035, the U.S. solar industry could employ 500,000–1,500,000 people by 2030. The components that are assembled to install a photovoltaic power system are produced by a global supply chain. Photovoltaic (PV) modules (also called panels) are made of cells that use a variety of technologies. There are two leading types of solar modules used in the United States, with crystalline silicon (c-Si) modules representing 84% of the market and cadmium telluride (CdTe) modules representing 16% of the market. Modules of either type require mounting structures to provide mechanical support (racking), which may be configured to follow the sun (tracking). The output of any PV module is direct current (dc), which is almost always converted to alternating current (ac) by an inverter.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Uncertainties in estimating global potential yields and their impacts for long-term modeling

Estimating realistic potential yields by crop type and region is challenging; such yields depend on both biophysical characteristics (e.g., soil characteristics, climate, etc.), and the crop management practices available in any site or region (e.g., mechanization, irrigation, crop cultivars). A broad body of literature has assessed potential yields for selected crops and regions, using several strategies. In this study we first analyze future potential yields of major crop types globally by two different estimation methods, one of which is based on historical observed yields (“Empirical”), while the other is based on biophysical conditions (“Simulated”). Potential yields by major crop and region are quite different between the two methods; in particular, Simulated potential yields are typically 200% higher than Empirical potential yields in tropical regions for major crops. Applying both of these potential yields in yield gap closure scenarios in a global agro-economic model, GCAM, the two estimates of future potential yields lead to very different outcomes for the agricultural sector globally. In the Simulated potential yield closure scenario, Africa, Asia, and South America see comparatively favorable outcomes for agricultural sustainability over time: low land use change emissions, low crop prices, and high levels of self-sufficiency. In contrast, the Empirical potential yield scenario is characterized by a heavy reliance on production and exports in temperate regions that currently practice industrial agriculture. At the global level, this scenario has comparatively high crop commodity prices, and more land allocated to crop production (and associated land use change emissions) than either the baseline or Simulated potential yield scenarios. This study highlights the importance of the choice of methods of estimating potential yields for agro-economic modeling.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Recent advances in CO 2 hydrogenation to value-added products — Current challenges and future directions

Climate change, global warming, fossil fuel depletion and rising fuel prices have created great incentives to seek alternative fuel production technologies. CO 2 transformation to value-added products using renewable H 2 has proven to be an emerging solution to enable this goal. In this regard, three different promising processes, namely methane, methanol and hydrocarbon synthesis via CO 2 hydrogenation are thoroughly discussed. In addition, the influential factors affecting process efficiencies such as catalyst design and mechanistic insight, operating conditions as well as reactor types are investigated, with key pathways that dictate catalyst activity and selectivity of the most promising materials described. Furthermore, a brief overview of the reactor configuration and its crucial role in the improving process viability is analyzed. Accordingly, fixed-bed, fluidized-bed, annular and spherical reactors along with H 2 O/H 2 perm-selective membrane reactors are disscussed for hydrocarbon production. In addition, different reactor configurations are compared to assess the best one that is adjustable depending on the reaction mechanism. In conclusion, a corrugated-wall dual-type membrane reactor is proposed as an emerging alternative for CO 2 hydrogenation to value-added products.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

On Two-Phase Pressure and Temperature Equilibration with Mie-Grüneisen Equations of State

In the course of reactive flow modeling, the phases of high explosive (HE) reactants and products introduce additional degrees of freedom to the underlying hydrodynamic equations of compressible reactive fluid mechanics. Hydrodynamic simulations track the bulk (mixture) conservation properties of mass, momentum and energy. When multiple phases are introduced, one must decide on appropriate closure rules to determine the relative phase volumes and energy distribution between the phases. One typical closure is to assume that the phases are in pressure and temperature equilibrium. Here, the requisite equations of p-T equilibration are explored for Mie-Grüneisen Equations of State (EOS). Examples with Davis reactants and Davis products EOSs will be given. The Davis forms are used in both the WSD and AWSD reactive flow models.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Supporting ARPA-E Power Grid Optimization (Final Report)

Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), Arizona State University (ASU), Georgia Institute of Technology (Georgia Tech), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Texas A&M University (TAMU), The University of Texas at Austin (UT), and the University of Wisconsin-Madison (UW-M) supported the ARPA-E Grid Optimization (GO) Competition by providing a common problem formulation, data format, datasets, evaluation mechanism, scoring, rules, and results that resulted in the awarding of $\$9.24$ million dollars to teams from academia, industry, and national labs for solving three sets of increasingly difficult non-linear, security- constrained AC Optimal Powerflow (AC-OPF) optimization problems in order to increase the efficiency of the US Electric Grid. It is estimated that a 1% increase in efficiency can save $\$1$ billion. Current industry practices typically use a linear DC model (DC-OPF) in order solve the OPF problem within the time constraints of the operation schedule. The GO Competition challenges the best power engineers, mathematicians, and computer scientists to make possible operational decisions based on accurate physical models. To accomplish this, the GO Competition created a series of Challenges and funded teams to produce the best solver. Challenge 1 was to solve the security constrained Alternating Current Optimal Power Flow (ACOPF) problem. Challenge 2 extended that to by adding adjustable transformer tap ratios, phase shifting transformers, switchable shunts, price-responsive demand, ramp rate constrained generators and loads, and fast-start unit commitment (UC). Furthermore, Challenge 2 was a maximization problem while Challenge 1 was a minimization problem. While Challenge 3 was being developed, the entrants were invited to find better solutions to the Challenge 2 synthetic datasets with no restrictions on time, hardware, or algorithms. The Challenge 2 solutions turned out to be very good. Challenge 3 expanded the Challenge 2 problem further by using multiperiod dynamic markets, including advisory models for extreme weather events, day-ahead markets, and the real-time markets with an extended look-ahead. These problems included active bid-in demand and topology optimization. Together the Challenges used nearly 30 million CPU hours. Since each team was working on the same problem, using the same data, and running on the same hardware, fair comparisons could be drawn as to the best solver. The datasets were varied enough, however, that the best solver for one dataset was not necessarily the best at another, so cumulative scores were used. The process was managed by the PNNL maintained website https://GOCompetition.energy.gov, where Entrants could find information about the problem, the data, the rules, submit their solver for evaluation, and see the scores of all the competing teams on a Leaderboard. Interest was world-wide but only American teams were eligible for prizes. The Competition has produced 34 journal articles 115 papers and been cited over 500 times in the literature, including 12 dissertations (4 from foreign countries; Columbia (2), Germany, and Italy) and 3 from the DOE ExaScale project. Software developed by Pearl Street Technologies for Challenges 1 and 2 is now deployed by Southwest Power Pool (SPP) and Midcontinent Independent Service Operator (MISO). Other teams have received inquiries from venture capitalists. Google DeepMind has thanked the Competition for making the datasets developed for the Competition public. They are using it to train machine learning models. The larger datasets have billions of unknowns to be solved for, but only a small percent matter in the final solution. Knowing what unknowns are important can dramatically speedup the solution.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Exact Algorithm for the Linear Tape Scheduling Problem

Magnetic tapes are often considered as an outdated storage technology, yet they are still used to store huge amounts of data. Their main interests are a large capacity and a low price per gigabyte, which come at the cost of a much larger file access time than on disks. With tapes, finding the right ordering of multiple file accesses is thus key to performance. Moving the reading head back and forth along a kilometer long tape has a non-negligible cost and unnecessary movements thus have to be avoided. However, the optimization of tape request ordering has rarely been studied in the scheduling literature, much less than I/O scheduling on disks. For instance, minimizing the average service time for several read requests on a linear tape remains an open question. Therefore, in this paper, we aim at improving the quality of service experienced by users of tape storage systems, and not only the peak performance of such systems. To this end, we propose a reasonable polynomial-time exact algorithm while this problem and simpler variants have been conjectured NP-hard. We also refine the proposed model by considering U-turn penalty costs accounting for inherent mechanical accelerations. Then, we propose a low-cost variant of our optimal algorithm by restricting the solution space, yet still yielding an accurate suboptimal solution. Finally, we compare our algorithms to existing solutions from the literature on logs of the mass storage management system of a major datacenter. This allows us to assess the quality of previous solutions and the improvement achieved by our low-cost algorithm. Aiming for reproducibility, we make available the complete implementation of the algorithms used in our evaluation, alongside the dataset of tape requests that is, to the best of our knowledge, the first of its kind to be publicly released.

Honoré, Valentin↗

Modeling of Stress Distribution in Molten Salt Thermal Energy Storage Tanks for In-Service Central Receiver Power Plants

Failures in molten nitrate salts thermal energy storage tanks (TES) have been occurring in several concentrating solar power (CSP) plants around the world after a few months or years of operation. These failures are mainly related to a combination of high stress, corrosion, large deformation, and thermal cycling. Most of these failures are a consequence of the infancy of this technology; technical standards for design, fabrication, implementation, and operation of molten salt tanks operating at temperatures up to 565 degrees Celsius do not exist and most of current in-service tanks have been designed using the recommendations from the American Petroleum Institute (API) 650 and the American Society of Mechanical Engineers ASME section II standards, which are applicable for TES tanks operating at lower temperatures. We have developed a 3-dimensional model of a representative molten salt hot tank design that uses typical CSP plant operation conditions and allows determining the temperature and stress distribution in the tank. The model also considers the initial floor residual stresses and distortion after its welding fabrication. We have identified critical thermal gradients in the tank floor and shell and locations in the tank where the stresses are high and could become susceptible points for failure.

concentrating solar power↗

Benefits of Dual Fuel Heat Pump Grid-responsive Control: A Model-based Control Optimization Approach Using Building and Equipment Co-simulation

Conventional dual fuel heat pumps lack the intelligent control mechanisms to efficiently manage the switch between heat pump and furnace, leading to sub-optimal energy usage and, in some cases, increased operating costs. To resolve this gap, this study applies optimized control on hybrid heat pumps. With a focus on equipment control strategies, we compare the performances of five spacing heating equipment, including a conventional heat pump (HP), a conventional furnace, a dual fuel heat pump (DFHP) with conventional control, a dual fuel heat pump with smart control, and a novel seamlessly fuel flexible heat pump (SFFHP). While DFHP runs on either gas or electricity at any given moment, SFFHP concurrently consumes gas and electricity by continuously optimizing the proportion of each. In this research, a co-simulation framework is developed by integrating a building envelope model with a physics-based heat pump simulation model to analyze the benefits of grid-responsive controls of DFHP and SFFHP. The model-based optimal controls adjust the operation of the heat pump and gas furnace based on utility price signals and marginal grid emission to minimize utility cost and CO 2 emissions for multiple climate zones, different utility tariffs, and marginal grid emission scenarios. Case studies in Chicago and Los Angeles demonstrate that SFFHP and DFHP, with model-based optimal control, can deliver significant reductions in peak demand, utility cost, and CO 2 emission. In Chicago, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP yield up to 64.7% and 61.7% utility cost reduction and up to 15.7% and 8.5% CO 2 emission reduction compared to the gas furnace. In Los Angeles, SFFHP and smart controlled DFHP achieve up to 43.6% and 40.1% utility cost reduction and up to 13.8% and 14.1% CO2 emission reduction compared to conventional heat pumps. In conclusion, by leveraging the fuel flexibility nature of dual fuel heat pumps, the model-based control optimization approach makes dual fuel heat pump an attractive option for demand response programs.

Control↗

Boosting High-Rate Zinc-Storage Performance by the Rational Design of Mn 2 O 3 Nanoporous Architecture Cathode

Manganese oxides are regarded as one of the most promising cathode materials in rechargeable aqueous Zn-ion batteries (ZIBs) because of the low price and high security. However, the practical application of Mn 2 O 3 in ZIBs is still plagued by the low specific capacity and poor rate capability. Herein, highly crystalline Mn 2 O 3 materials with interconnected mesostructures and controllable pore sizes are obtained via a ligand-assisted self-assembly process and used as high-performance electrode materials for reversible aqueous ZIBs. The coordination degree between Mn 2+ and citric acid ligand plays a crucial role in the formation of the mesostructure, and the pore sizes can be easily tuned from 3.2 to 7.3 nm. Ascribed to the unique feature of nanoporous architectures, excellent zinc-storage performance can be achieved in ZIBs during charge/discharge processes. The Mn 2 O 3 electrode exhibits high reversible capacity (233 mAh g -1 at 0.3 A g -1 ), superior rate capability (162 mAh g -1 retains at 3.08 A g -1 ) and remarkable cycling durability over 3000 cycles at a high current rate of 3.08 A g -1 . Moreover, the corresponding electrode reaction mechanism is studied in depth according to a series of analytical methods. These results suggest that rational design of the nanoporous architecture for electrode materials can effectively improve the battery performance.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Designer Metasurfaces for Antireflective Applications Enabled by Advanced Nanoparticle Technology

Optic processing advances have shifted system limitations, with current constraints consisting of antireflective (AR) coatings applied to optics and the inability to reduce size, weight, and price. Metasurfaces, and more broadly metaoptics, provide an avenue to overcome these limitations. The ability to generate substrate-engraved metasurfaces that can be tailored is demonstrated within a broad design space to satisfy large-area AR applications for bandpass or broadband needs, demonstrating an optically equivalent surface roughness standard deviation of only 5 Å. Using an advanced nanoparticle masking approach, two metasurfaces are fabricated: 1) vertical sidewall nanofeature metasurface (MS) for AR applications at 351 nm, and 2) sloped sidewall MS designed for broadband AR applications. For the 351 nm MS, the reflectance is measured to be 0.127%. In the case of the sloped sidewall MS, the reflectance is measured to be <0.25% over 400–700 nm and <1% over 400–1100 nm. To the best of the authors’ knowledge, this is the first demonstration of a broadband AR capable of this performance. The tunability of these structures, with a parameter space spanning even more remarkable designs such as broader bands and acceptance angles, coupled with high laser-induced damage durability and mechanical robustness, displays the strength of metasurfaces for AR applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Data-Driven Understanding of Low-to-Moderate Income Customers’ Adoption and Financial Qualification in Community Solar (Final Technical Report)

When Solstice began working in the community solar industry, it quickly became clear that there was a wide disparity along race and class lines in terms of what kind of household traditional solar offerings benefited. Solstice is an organization that aligns itself to the principles of a Just Transition, or the concept that a transition to a green economy should benefit and prioritize historically marginalized groups of people. Given that low-income communities are disproportionately burdened by our current polluting fossil fuel economy, Solstice set out to investigate the root causes of the exclusion of low to moderate income (LMI) households in the community solar market. As we worked more and more with financiers, developers, and LMI households, we recognized that significant barriers to entry in a developer-owned project were credit threshold requirements. A FICO score of 750 and higher discriminates against LMI households that are not financially stable enough to take on multiple lines of credit (or who may not have been deemed credit worthy enough to access a line of credit) yet who may have been reliable utility customers. As Solstice began looking further into preliminary data and speaking to community-based organizations (CBOs) that serve LMI households, we found our hypothesis to be worth investigating; there was indeed a subset of LMI households with poor FICO scores (or no FICO score at all) that had perfect bill payment history. Though initially Solstice was intent on gathering a body of data to prove or disprove this hypothesis, we were also concerned that all this proof of a financially stable and reliable customer was not being incorporated into FICO, and wondered if such a score would be possible. After preliminary research into the existence of alternative scores, Solstice realized that many mission-driven lending institutions rely on alternative metrics that are formulated for their specific industry. However, we also realized that community solar did not have an alternative credit underwriting mechanism, though there was great need from solar financiers for one. We anticipated that the creation of an EnergyScore would contribute to financiers’ need to qualify more people, as these entities are desperately looking for ways to lower the cost of customer acquisition. FICO turns away nearly 50% of potential customers (according to our own acquisition experience), and much of the community solar industry is realizing that FICO is not the perfect qualifying mechanism. Additionally, with a grounding in energy justice, just transitions, and climate justice, Solstice recognizes the need for a solution that addresses a more urgent need for LMI households to access renewable energy savings and relieve energy burdens. With funding from the Department of Energy, we gathered the data necessary to build the EnergyScore, reached out to mission-driven developers willing to test the metric, and secured several demonstration projects to pilot the EnergyScore. After acquiring customers for these demo projects using the EnergyScore, we will be continuously collecting customer payment behavior data. Though it goes beyond the scope of this project, we plan to disseminate this de-identified data with the wider community solar industry, which includes not only financiers and developers, but other mission-driven nonprofits, solar cooperatives, community-based organizations, environmental justice activists, and academics. While we intend to disprove the notion that LMI households cannot be included in projects without acutely increasing the risk to project finances, we also hope the data can be used to negotiate better pricing of systems and terms of ownership for community groups seeking to build inclusive projects.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Numerical simulations of the Los Alamos gapstick experiment

The gapstick is a high explosive (HE) sensitivity test recently developed at Los Alamos. The experiment design was motivated by the traditional gap test and consists of a series of HE and inert pellets in a rate stick configuration. The inert pellets are made increasingly longer so that eventually the attenuated shock is unable to initiate the next HE pellet. While the gapstick is a mechanically simple experiment it poses several challenges for numerical simulation. In particular, accurately modeling the HE initiation and detonation phenomena requires a reactive burn model with sufficient mesh resolution to capture the reaction scales. In this work, the Scaled Uniform Reactive Front (SURF) and Arrhenius Wescott-Stewart-Davis (AWSD) burn models are used for simulations of a PBX 9501 (95 wt% HMX, 5% binder) gapstick. Furthermore, the material model for the inert pellet material, Polyvinylidene Fluoride (PVDF), has a direct influence on the shock propagation and a new equation of state (EOS) calibration for PVDF is developed using available Hugoniot data. Despite some challenges, the simulations are able to reasonably predict shock transit velocities and detonation failure in the gapstick.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Inexpensive and durable aerogel-based VIP cores

The goal of this project was development of low-cost aerogels to be used as cores of Vacuum Insulated Panels (VIP). The specific aims were: 1. Aerogels to be based on phenolic chemistry to minimize flammability. 2. Aerogels to be in monolithic form and to have mechanical properties sufficient to allow their use as cores of VIPs without collapsing after evacuation. 3. Aerogels to have a cost per kg lower than the cost of fumed silica, one of the most common VIP cores. The achievements are: 1. Phenolic aerogels have been fabricated in monolithic form with thermal conductivity of 0.023 W/m·K, density ~ 0.25 g/cm 3 and a modulus of compression > 10 MPa. The aerogels can withstand the stresses of VIP evacuation without any appreciable deformation. 2. Drying of aerogels was carried in the initial stages of the project via sublimation of frozen solvents, following the procedure described in M. F. Bertino and T. Selden, “Fabrication of Aerogels and Aerogel Composites by Ambient Pressure Sublimation of Frozen Solvents”, PCT/US20/39485. Monoliths as large as 30 x 30 x 2 cm can be fabricated with the proprietary ambient fabrication technique which are free of cracks and warping. 3. Cost analysis was carried out and refined multiple times, cost drivers were identified, and the fabrication procedure was streamlined. Our cost model yields an aerogel cost of $\$$5.78/kg, which compares well with the price of fumed silica ($\$$6.2/kg FOB New York as of March 2023). 4. The monoliths can be cut into custom shapes and used as VIP cores. Cores fabricated with our technique have a thermal conductivity λ = 0.011 W/m·K at a pressure >10 mbar. 5. A variant of the technology yielded fireproof materials, described in M. F. Bertino, T. Moon, G. Waller, J. Ko and D. Clifford, “Fireproof thermal insulation”, Provisional Patent Application 63/415,386. 6. A spin-off company was created (ThermaGel Innovations, Inc.) which licensed technologies developed under this award. PI Bertino is a board member of the newco which is now raising capital to build a pilot plant.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

A six degrees of freedom femtosecond laser system for fabrication of small-scale mechanical property specimens

Here, we present the details of a novel ultra-short pulsed laser machining workstation that has been employed for high-throughput laser machining of small-scale mechanical property specimens. This system employs a six degrees of freedom hexapod positioning stage capable of macroscopic movements at high positional accuracy. We developed a methodology that uses quantitative image analysis to measure key parameters required to minimize the hexapod positioning and rotational error. Application of this system to laser machining of small-scale 316L stainless steel tensile specimens and ultra-high molecular weight polyethylene compressive specimens using eucentric tilt and rotation about the specimen axis will be shown, where serial laser milling at a specimen tilt angle of 10° was used to effectively eliminate any taper in the sample cross section that is typically found in laser machining.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Opportunities for green hydrogen production with land-based wind in the United States

Hydrogen (H 2 ) is an efficient energy carrier and storage mechanism that can supply both stationary and transport energy demand. Rapidly declining renewable energy generation costs; technology innovations in wind, solar, battery storage, and electrolysis; and a global push for more sustainable and secure energy have driven increased interest in green H 2 production. In this study, we develop an H 2 scenario analysis tool to assist in rapid, high-resolution insights into future, green H 2 pathways to achieve policy goals and market competitiveness. Using this tool, we estimate H 2 production and costs for U.S., off-grid scenarios given varying policy and cost scenarios from 2025–2035. Results indicate that achieving economically competitive green H 2 production (below $\$$2/kg) is possible in 2030 with no policy incentives (one site achieves this target), while increasing policy support to include wind and green H 2 production tax credits enables widespread economic viability sooner, with sub-$\$$2/kg LCOH targets achieved by 2025 and 51.7% of sites achieving this target by 2035. Maximizing policy support through prevailing wage and apprenticeship credit multipliers enable widespread economic viability, including sub-$\$$2/kg of green H 2 by 2025 and even negative pricing by 2035. Regions with lowest LCOH values correspond to high wind resource areas and capacity factors. Achieving decarbonization goals with green H 2 depends on technology cost reductions and policy support, with a maximum average LCOH reduction of $\$$23.10 between no and maximum policy support scenarios, and a maximum average LCOH reduction of $\$$25.86 between current, conservative technology costs and 2035 projected technology cost assumptions.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) Study

The Progressing Analysis of Variable Electric Rates (PAVER) study analyzed the impact of a range of time-varying electric rates on the performance of a regional electric grid and the resulting costs for participating and non-participating customers. This analysis leveraged and extended the work of PNNL’s Distribution System Operator with Transactive (DSO+T) study. Five different rate designs were included: a flat volumetric energy charge, a typical Time of Use (TOU) rate, a dynamic energy (DE) rate (based on wholesale locational marginal prices), a dynamic energy and capacity (DE+C) rate, and, finally, a Block and Swing (B&S) rate that billed customers based on their average load profile at constant pricing, but used the DE+C dynamic price for load deviations from their average profile. These rates were analyzed in a large-scale co-simulation of an entire regional grid with a customer population representative of the current state. A large fraction (80%) of residential and commercial customers were assumed to participate in these time-varying rates with automatically controlled HVAC, water heaters, electric vehicles, and batteries. This study assumed no industrial sector participation. The DE and DE+C rates saw system peak loads reduced by 6-7%, while the large participation in the TOU rate case saw a significant rebound effect and a resulting peak load increase of >5%. The impacts to the annual and peak system demand impacted system wholesale prices and the overall grid operating costs. This cost structure determined the revenue needed to be collected from customers by each rate design. Participating customers on the DE and DE+C rates (located in one of the modeled DSOs) saw reductions in average annual electricity bills of 11-17% with average increases in monthly bill variation of no more than 13%. At such high participation levels, TOU customers saw 10% higher average annual bills (due to system-wide rebound effects) and average increased monthly bill variation of 16%. Residential owners of large flexible loads (such as electric vehicles) saw larger bill savings (17-20%) when on a fully dynamic rate. The presence of on-site generation (such as rooftop solar) did not appear to appreciably change customer outcomes. Customers on the Block and Swing rate did see 6% lower monthly bill variation (as intended) than the flat rate case, but at the expense of appreciable bill savings, which were only 3%, comparable to the savings seen by non-participants. Given this finding we recommend that additional research be conducted into how best various bill protection mechanisms can balance minimizing customer bill variation with providing financial incentives commensurate with the flexibility customers provide. We also recommend that customer outcomes be explored across a range of regions using current actual customer and system cost data.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗