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DOE OSTI2025

Sensitive dependence on initial conditions in a formation of magnetic vortices

The magnetic vortex exhibits promise as a true random number generator for hardware-based encryption and probabilistic computing due to its stochastic formation of energetically equivalent fourfold degenerate states, characterized by two topologies: polarity and chirality. However, a comprehensive understanding of the stochastic formation of magnetic vortices remains elusive. In this work, we show that the magnetization relaxation in asymmetric Permalloy disks evolves along a pitchfork bifurcation, with both bifurcation paths leading to the formation of magnetic vortices with the same chirality. In the bifurcation, one formation path is always chosen under weak in-plane magnetic fields, ultimately determining the final magnetic vortex state. By delaying the in-plane magnetic field, we quantitatively investigate when the final vortex state is determined and find that it is closely associated with the initial conditions rather than the bifurcation point itself. Our findings provide valuable insights into future spintronic-based encryption and probabilistic computing.

Jeong, Suyeong↗
DOE OSTI2025

Radioisotope Identification with List-Mode Gamma-Ray Data

This work explores the potential of utilizing temporal data from gamma-ray detectors, known as list-mode data, to enhance radioisotope identification. Traditional identification methods, which rely on full gamma-ray spectrum analysis, often require long dwell times and struggle with spectra containing similarly spaced spectral peaks. We hypothesize that by leveraging the probabilistic nature of nuclear decay and the time-encoded information from decay sequences and interactions with surrounding materials, we can improve classification accuracy over static spectral analysis. This research examines the temporal content of list-mode data through exploratory data analysis via correlation discovery and qualitative distribution analysis. Additionally, we propose a probabilistic classification model that can utilize spectral data, temporal data, or both to determine if the incorporation of temporal information improves radioisotope identification. Our findings suggest that the temporal information present in list-mode gamma-ray data has merit and should be further investigated to develop more robust and optimal methods for utilizing this temporal information in applications requiring radioisotope identification.

List-mode data↗
DOE OSTI2025

Diagnostics: Chapter 8 of the special issue: on the path to tokamak burning plasma operation

This chapter presents the activity conducted by the ITPA topical group (TG) on Diagnostics over about the last 15 years. Following a general introduction of the ITER Diagnostics led by their measurement roles, the document is organized in several subchapters detailing the design support, research and development activity conducted by each of the specialist working groups (WGs) of the TG. Please note that the magnetic diagnostics were supported at the TG without a specific WG. Their status is included in the general introduction. In the following some highlights of the subchapter’s contents are provided. Recent advances in ITER first wall (FW) diagnostics for the measurements of plasma-metallic wall interaction in support of the ITER research plan are reported. An InfraRed imaging Video Bolometer for ITER has been developed and tested on several tokamaks to measure the radiated power loss. A laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy (LIBS) technique which utilizes a pulsed laser beam to ablate locally by forming a crater, will measure local tritium inventory in the FW material. Real-time Residual Gas Analyzers will measure the neutral gas composition in a divertor port and an equatorial port during plasma operation. Due to the full metallic FW environment, the plasma-wall interaction in ITER will face several challenges such as the compromised radiated power and divertor heat flux measurements by reflection. Ray tracing and analysis codes have been developed to eliminate and correct the effects of reflection in the measurements. The characteristics of the reflecting surfaces depending on the roughness and angle of the incidence have been measured by dedicated experiments, and the results were applied to the reflection elimination. For the measurement of the metallic impurity radiation induced by eroded metallic atoms, a vacuum ultraviolet spectrometer has been developed and tested. An extensive thermonuclear diagnostic suite will be required to support the operation of ITER and the planned experimental program for future burning plasma experiments. Due to the harsh environmental conditions, the implementation of diagnostic systems in ITER is a major challenge. These conditions include high levels of neutron and gamma fluxes, neutron heating, particle bombardment. Therefore, the selection and design of diagnostic systems must take into account a number of phenomena previously unseen in diagnostic design. For this reason, the measurement of neutrons and confined or lost fast ions, with particular emphasis on alpha particles, is critical to ITER. The diagnostics associated with these measurements will be important for future plasma-burning experiments at ITER. The high neutron emission and very large plasma size in ITER make neutron diagnostics the main diagnostic method used to measure plasma parameters such as fusion power, fusion power density, ion temperature, energy of fast ions and their spatial distributions in the plasma core. Active spectroscopy techniques are methods where a neutral particle beam is injected into the plasma and information on plasma parameters is extracted from the measurement of line emission resulting from the beam-plasma interaction, either by plasma ions or by beam atoms. Spatial localization is achieved by crossing the beamline and multiple observation lines. The ITER plasma will be a high temperature, moderately dense, fully ionized collisional plasma. The plasma facing surfaces are principally metallic being fashioned from beryllium or tungsten but many other elements, arising from either structural or from operational needs, may enter this plasma. The energy range of the emitted photons range from meV (infra-red) to multi keV (x-rays) and originate from all areas of the plasma volume. The primary role of passive emission diagnostics is to identify what is in the plasma from spectral signatures. Extracting quantitative information from these measurements such as impurity content, ion temperature, rotation, degree of detachment and radiated power depends on calibrated instruments, a physics model of the atomic and molecular processes and plasma transport and an analysis workflow that takes into account environmental effects such as reflections. The particular needs for ITER have prompted a multi-machine, many-year effort to address all these aspects and this chapter reviews the work on diagnostic design, experiments and new analysis techniques. An overview of the laser diagnostics to be implemented on ITER is also provided in this paper. This includes descriptions of the Thomson scattering in the core, edge and divertor regions, polarimetry and interferometry diagnostics used for measuring plasma density and also measurements of helium density in the divertor using Laser Induced Flourescence. Techniques which can allow improvements on current measurements are also addressed in particular expanding poloidal polarimetry measurements to measure field fluctuations and proposed use of dispersion interferometery which has a number of advantages over existing methods. This paper identifies particular areas where further research and testing on existing tokamaks is useful even at this advanced stage to inform the design of diagnostics for ITER. Outstanding areas of concern for the implementation of laser diagnostics, in particular with a view to reliable operation are identified. An overview of the latest developments of microwave diagnostic systems and techniques is given. The primary focus is the contributions for ITER—the next step burning plasma experiment—which is supplemented by describing recent progress of techniques applicable for fusion experiments beyond ITER. The contributions are intentionally kept concise, and are being supplemented by a rich list of references for further studies. Radiation induced effects are receiving continuous and well-deserved attention of the ITER diagnostic community and they are in many cases one of the primary design drivers of the ITER diagnostic systems. The paper summarizes recent progress in this area focusing primarily on the ITER diagnostics but in some cases provides also outlook for the possible solutions for even more demanding radiation environment of fusion reactors beyond ITER. Despite advancements in the area of modeling and simulation of various radiation induced effects, experimental testing in a nuclear environment as close as possible to the target one is still seen as unavoidable for proper qualification of particular diagnostic functional elements. Recent advancement within three diagnostic areas: optical diagnostics, magnetics and bolometers is covered. Encouraging results on qualification of silica glass vacuum window assemblies are presented. In the area of magnetic sensors, progress of irradiation tests performed on ITER in-vessel LTCC inductive sensors is presented with outlook for novel technological approaches to inductive sensors utilizing thick printing and photolithography technologies being highlighted. Summary of advancements in the area of steady state magnetic field sensors based on Hall effect is given. New results of neutron irradiation test of the ITER borosilicate glass inserts for vacuum electrical feedthroughs are summarized finding negligible swelling at target level of neutron fluence. Off-line irradiation tests of fiber optic current sensors for plasma current measurement demonstrated that both for gamma doses up to 5 MGy and a total neutron fluence up to 10 15 cm −2 , radiation induced changes are still compatible with required measurement accuracy on ITER. The ITER bolometers are given as an example how considering radiation effects may influence the diagnostic design. Finally, outlook for future main R&D directions is outlined. All optical and laser-based diagnostics in ITER will be using mirrors to guide plasma radiation toward detectors, cameras and sensors. In the hostile plasma, radiation and particle environment the optical characteristics of diagnostic mirrors will degrade directly affecting the entire performance of involved diagnostic systems. An assessment of factors affecting mirror performance is provided. Among the prime adverse factors are deposition of plasma impurities, sputtering of mirror surface and steam ingress in the vicinity of mirrors. Within the International Tokamak Physics Activity with active support by ITER central team and domestic agencies, the structured research and development (R&D) program on mitigation of risks for diagnostic mirrors is underway. Within this program the mirror material development, the passive mitigation of mirror degradation by using diagnostic ducts and shutters along with an active mirror recovery program comprising the in-situ mirror cleaning and calibration is underway. Recent developments in diagnostic mirror R&D are described in this Chapter along with an example of their implementation of R&D solutions in ITER Infrared Thermography diagnostic. An assessment of still open engineering and physics questions, considerations on mirror risks during an early phase of ITER operation are given along with an overview of diagnostic mirror evolution in the late ITER operation stage toward the demonstration fusion power plant. Several crucial areas of diagnostic R&D outlined in ITER Research Plan are addressed. The basic control groups in a fusion reactor can be broken-down in five categories: (1) plasma position, magnetic configuration, and plasma current control, (2) profile control and confinement optimization, (3) MHD control and suppression, (4) edge dissipation control, radiation and plasma exhaust control and (5) break-down optimization. These categories are coupled via the physics (a control action in one domain will affect the other domains) and via shared actuators (e.g. ECRH for impurity accumulation avoidance, current density distribution control and MHD suppression). Consequently, a supervisory control system should determine the priority of the various control tasks, their couplings, and the interfaces with the safety and interlock system. For the systematic development of the various controllers taking the complexity of the plasma and the control system into account, a model-based approach is required. A short historical overview is given of the developments in systems and control theory and control engineering with special emphasis on those developments that are most relevant for Nuclear Fusion research and operation. An overview is given of the state of the field of fusion plasma control for the control categories. It will be shown how synthetic diagnostics are being developed in ITER and how they are used in diagnostic design and design validation and how they can be in model-based controller synthesis using relatively simple models. In modern control methods, multiple diagnostics are used to constrain relatively simple models. The constrained models provide an estimate for the state. This opens the route to state controllers, such as model predictive control. A major challenge in nuclear fusion research is the coherent combination of data from heterogeneous diagnostics and modeling codes for machine control and safety as well as physics studies. Measured data from different diagnostics often provide information about the same subset of physical parameters. Additionally, information provided by some diagnostics might be needed for the analysis of other diagnostics. A joint analysis of complementary and redundant data allows, e.g. to improve the reliability of parameter estimation, to increase the spatial and temporal resolution of profiles, to obtain synergistic effects, to consider diagnostics interdependencies and to find and resolve data inconsistencies. Physics-based modeling and parameter relationships provide additional information improving the treatment of ill-posed inversion problems. A coherent combination of all kind of available information within a probabilistic framework allows for improved data analysis results. The concept of integrated data analysis (IDA) in the framework of Bayesian probability theory is outlined and contrasted with conventional data analysis. Components of the probabilistic approach are summarized and specific ingredients beneficial for data analysis at fusion devices are discussed.

ITER↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph-learning approach to combine multiresolution seismic velocity models

SUMMARY The resolution of velocity models obtained by tomography varies due to multiple factors and variables, such as the inversion approach, ray coverage, data quality, etc. Combining velocity models with different resolutions can enable more accurate ground motion simulations. Toward this goal, we present a novel methodology to fuse multiresolution seismic velocity maps with probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). The PGMs provide segmentation results, corresponding to various velocity intervals, in seismic velocity models with different resolutions. Further, by considering physical information (such as ray path density), we introduce physics-informed probabilistic graphical models (PIPGMs). These models provide data-driven relations between subdomains with low (LR) and high (HR) resolutions. Transferring (segmented) distribution information from the HR regions enhances the details in the LR regions by solving a maximum likelihood problem with prior knowledge from HR models. When updating areas bordering HR and LR regions, a patch-scanning policy is adopted to consider local patterns and avoid sharp boundaries. To evaluate the efficacy of the proposed PGM fusion method, we tested the fusion approach on both a synthetic checkerboard model and a fault zone structure imaged from the 2019 Ridgecrest, CA, earthquake sequence. The Ridgecrest fault zone image consists of a shallow (top 1 km) high-resolution shear-wave velocity model obtained from ambient noise tomography, which is embedded into the coarser Statewide California Earthquake Center Community Velocity Model version S4.26-M01. The model efficacy is underscored by the deviation between observed and calculated traveltimes along the boundaries between HR and LR regions, 38 per cent less than obtained by conventional Gaussian interpolation. The proposed PGM fusion method can merge any gridded multiresolution velocity model, a valuable tool for computational seismology and ground motion estimation.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗
DOE OSTI2024

Techno-economic assessment of electricity market potential for co-located hydro-floating PV systems

Abstract—Harnessing renewable energy from diverse sources is paramount for sustainable power systems. Recently, co-located floating PV (FPV) systems present an intriguing prospect in this context. These hybrid systems, blending hydro and solar power, may offer a more consistent electricity output and potential economic advantages. Yet, assessing their actual potential requires a comprehensive techno-economic assessment. In addition, probabilistic price forecasting has recently gained attention in electricity market because decisions based on such predictions can yield significantly higher profits than those made with point forecasts alone. To this end, this paper embarks on a journey to elucidate the electricity market potential of co-located hydro-FPV systems in a probabilistic fashion to investigate the technological merits and economic viability of co-located hydro-FPV under different market structures. Our preliminary findings suggest that LCOE and payback metrics are sensitive not only to different markets but also to different solar incentives. Concurrently, we also observe that the payback period is generally faster with a production tax credit (PTC) than an investment tax credit (ITC). This assessment serves as a cornerstone for understanding the future prospects of co-located hydro-FPV systems in modern electricity markets.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Conin

SAND2025-07645O Conin is a Python library that supports constrained analysis of probabilistic graphical models (PGMs). It enables constrained inference and learning for hidden Markov models, Bayesian networks, dynamic Bayesian networks, and Markov networks. Conin interfaces with the pgmpy library to specify general probabilistic graphical models with a variety of optimization solvers to support learning and inference. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Hart, William [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-CA), Live↗
DOE OSTI2024

scANN

SAND2025-00656O scANN, also known as sampling by coinflips artificial neural networks, is a software tool that estimates uncertainty in artificial intelligence by performing Monte Carlo analysis on the weight matrices of feedforward neural networks. This computationally intensive process aims to explore the potential value added by future probabilistic hardware. The program’s output helps researchers gain insights into how probabilistic neural networks work. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

SciDAC↗
DOE OSTI2026

IPC-Fusion (Infrastructure Perception and Control (IPC): Multisensor Data Fusion Software) [SWR-25-153]

As part of the National Laboratory of the Rockies' (NLR’s) Infrastructure Perception and Control Laboratory, the IPC-Fusion toolkit provides a probabilistic, scalable, multi-sensor fusion framework that integrates (late-stage fusion) heterogeneous object detection data from traffic sensors to enable robust, real-time tracking of roadway occupants. The algorithmic design of the toolkit is motivated by the need for creating a digital twin of traffic at the edge in a scalable and affordable manner. The software operates by combining object-level measurements (such as position and velocity) from a suite of sensors (such as radar, lidar, camera) using Kalman filtering and probabilistic data association techniques to overcome individual sensor limitations and achieve superior tracking performance in complex traffic zones. The framework addresses key challenges including heterogeneous measurement uncertainties, asynchronous data streams, varying spatiotemporal data resolutions, robust data association, and adaptive object lifecycle management. Validated on real-world traffic intersection data including vehicles and pedestrians, IPC-Fusion demonstrates enhanced tracking reliability across scenarios involving occlusions, sensor failures, and varying traffic densities, supporting the broader IPC initiative's goal of transforming transportation infrastructure through advanced perception capabilities for intelligent transportation systems, traffic safety applications, and autonomous vehicle support.

Sandhu, Rimple [National Laboratory of the Rockies↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Enhanced SPRA-based Margins Assessment

Recently there has been development in the field of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage detailed risk assessments and performance-based metrics to allow flexibility and innovation. These RIPB approaches include the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. However, there are certain challenges that have been identified to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, primarily due to uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The NRC is currently developing 10 CFR Part 53 that would establish a technology-inclusive regulatory framework for use by applicants for new commercial advanced nuclear reactors. By examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance, potential challenges were identified in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants. This paper summarizes key findings, establishes a series of high-level goals, and reviews a newly developed approach to address the major challenges associated with assessing compliance with QHOs, with avenues to demonstrate compliance based on either the estimated consequence or the available margin to event occurrence, while also building on existing experience of seismic margins assessments. The paper also provides examples to demonstrate the application of the approach, as well as recommendations and potential future work.

external hazards↗
DOE OSTI2025

popclass: A Python Package for Classifying Microlensing Events

popclass is a Python package that provides a flexible, probabilistic framework for classifying the lens of a gravitational microlensing event. Gravitational microlensing occurs when a massive foreground object (e.g., a star, white dwarf or black hole) passes in front of and lenses the light from a distant background source. This causes an apparent brightening, and shift in position, of the background source. In most cases, characteristics of the microlensing signal do not contain enough information to definitively identify the lens type. Different lens types lie in different but overlapping regions of the characteristics of the microlensing signal. For example, black holes tend to be more massive than stars and therefore cause microlensing signals that are longer. Current Galactic simulations enable us to predict where different lens types lie in the observational space and can therefore be used to classify events (e.g., Lam et al., 2020). popclass allows the user to match the characteristics of a microlensing signal with a simulation of the Galaxy to calculate lens type probabilities for the event (see Figure 1). Constraints on any microlensing signal properties and any Galactic model can be used. popclass comes with an interface to ArviZ (Kumar et al., 2019) and PyMultiNest (Buchner et al., 2014) for microlensing signal constraints, as well as pre-loaded Galactic models, plotting functionality, and methods to quantify the classification uncertainty. The probabilistic framework for popclass was developed in Perkins et al. (2024), used in Fardeen et al. (2024) and has been applied to classifying events in Kaczmarek et al. (2025).

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI1991

Nuclear Safety [Vol. 32, No. 4, October-December 1991]

Nuclear Safety is a review journal that covers significant developments in the field of nuclear safety. Its scope includes the analysis and control of hazards associated with nuclear energy, operations involving fissionable materials, and the products of nuclear fission and their effects on the environment. Primary emphasis is on safety in reactor design, construction, and operation; however, the safety aspects of the entire fuel cycle, including fuel fabrication, spent-fuel processing, nuclear waste disposal, handling of radioisotopes, and environmental effects of these operations, are also treated. Table of Contents for this issue follows. GENERAL SAFETY CONSIDERATIONS: 477 Report on the International Symposium on the Use of Probabilistic Safety Assessment for Operational Safety—PSA '91, S. Chakraborty and M. Khatib-Rahbar; 488 Good Relationships Are Pivotal in Nuclear Data Bases, A. S. Heger and B. V. Koen; 494 Technical Note: The Interagency Nuclear Safety Review Panel's Evaluation of the Ulysses Space Mission, J. A. Sholtis, Jr., D. A. Huff, L. B. Gray, N. P. Klug, and R. O. Winchester; ACCIDENT ANALYSIS: 502 The Severe Accident Analysis Program for the Savannah River Nuclear Production Reactors, M. L. Hyder; CONTROL AND INSTRUMENTATION: 511 A Framework for Selecting Suitable Control Technologies for Nuclear Power Plant Systems, R. A. Kisner; DESIGN FEATURES: 521 Containments for Gas-Cooled Power Reactors History and Status, P.W. Williams; ENVIRONMENTAL EFFECTS: 537 Indoor Radon: A Natural Risk, N. H. Harley and J.H. Harley; On the Importance of the Atmospheric Parameters in the Fission Products Distribution of a Severe Reactor Accident, M. C. Barla and A. R. Bayulken; Book Review: Health Effects of Exposure to Low Levels of Ionizing Radiation BEIR V, C. R. Richmond; WASTE AND SPENT FUEL MANAGEMENT: 555 Activities Related to Waste and Spent Fuel Management, M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver OPERATING EXPERIENCES: 567 Effects of Component Aging on the Westhinghouse Control Rod Drive System, K. Sullivan and W. Gunther; 577 Reactor Shutdown Experience, Compiled by J. W. Cletcher, 580 Selected Safety-Related Events, Compiled by G. A. Murphy; 582 Operating U 8 Power Reactors, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver, RECENT DEVELOPMENTS: 596 General Administrative Activities, Compiled by M. D. Muhlheim and E. G. Silver; 610 Reports, Standards, and Safety Guides, D. S. Queener; 614 Proposed Rule Changes as of June 30, 1991; ANNOUNCEMENTS: 520 Workshop on PC PRAISE: A Probabilistic Fracture Mechanics Personal Computer Code for Nuclear Power Plant Piping Reliability Assessment; 536 Fifth Workshop on Nuclear Power Plant Containment Integrity; 624 New OECD "International Information System on Occupational Exposure (ISOE)"; 625 Harvard School of Public Health Announces Short Courses; 625 Eighth Power Plant Dynamics, Control and Testing Symposium; 626 Second Training Course on Off-Site Emergency Planning and Response for Nuclear Accidents; 618 The Authors; 622 Reviewers of Nuclear Safety, Vol 32.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Regulatory Treatment of Low Frequency External Events under a Risk-Informed Performance-Based Licensing Pathway: Safety Criteria Evaluation

There has been recent progress in the development of risk-informed performance-based (RIPB) design and licensing approaches, which leverage the insights gained from detailed risk assessments and utilize performance-based metrics to permit flexibility and innovation. The RIPB approaches have included the probabilistic treatment of external hazards, including low frequency events that are beyond the design basis. A preceding study conducted in FY21 noted that there are certain challenges to the probabilistic treatment of low frequency external events, which are primarily the result of uncertainty in the hazard curve and the associated plant response to rare, severe events. The current work expands on the previous study by examining the regulatory safety criteria contained within draft 10 CFR Part 53 and associated draft RIPB seismic design guidance. The evaluation identified potential challenges in demonstrating satisfaction of the safety criteria for low frequency external events, with specific difficulties associated with demonstrating compliance with cumulative safety criteria metrics, such as the quantitative health objectives (QHOs). Non-LWRs are expected to utilize the direct calculation of offsite consequence, rather than use surrogates, for comparison to the QHOs, which can be particularly challenging as the previously identified uncertainties are compounded by uncertainties in the response of the neighboring population. The current work details this evaluation and key findings. The central recommendation from this effort is that it is necessary to develop an approach for demonstrating compliance with the safety criteria in draft Part 53 that addresses the key challenges while providing flexibility to applicants.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2025

HELPR Version 1.1.0 User Guide

Hydrogen Extremely Low Probability of Rupture (HELPR) is a modular probabilistic fracture mechanics modeling platform developed to assess structural integrity of pipelines for transmission and distribution of hydrogen. HELPR couples fatigue and fracture engineering models with probabilistic methods to generate fast predictions and enables quantification of prediction uncertainty and sensitivity. This user manual serves as a guide through the various analysis features HELPR contains.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2025

Frequency and time multiplexing for multiphoton state generation

One of the primary challenges with photonic quantum information processing is that single-photon states are created and heralded probabilistically, rather than being created on demand. One solution to this problem is multiplexing , which is attempting probabilistic generation of a single photon at multiple locations, times, or frequencies, and switching one successfully generated photon into an output mode. Motivated by the development of frequency-based photonic quantum information processing, we consider multiplexing using frequency and time as our options to use to get many photon generation opportunities. We devise an approach for generating multiphoton states, with photons populating multiple frequency modes in the same spatiotemporal mode. This method uses a variable-length optical delays to manipulate the temporal mode of the photons, and spaced fiber Bragg grating (FBG) reflectors to jointly manipulate the frequency and temporal modes of the photons. Experimental progress toward implementing this multiplexing scheme is proceeding along 2 fronts, each with different ways to achieve the variable-length optical delay. First, we will implement this scheme using a free-space optical quantum memory with multiple discretely adjustable free-space delays. For this implementation method, I calculate multiphoton generation rates, accounting for loss, that are realistically achievable with commercially available hardware. This work will appear in a theory paper, currently in preparation. Second, we will implement this multiplexing scheme in an integrated manner: the variable-length optical delay will happen on-chip using a long-lifetime Q-switchable Fabry-Perot cavity. The joint manipulation of the frequency and temporal modes of the photons will still happen off-chip in fiber with FBG reflectors. I report on experimental progress in constructing integrated Q-switchable Fabry-Perot cavities.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2026

VRN3P: Variational Recurrent Neural Network Based Net-Load Prediction under High Solar Penetration

This is the final technical report for the SETO-funded VRN3P project (PNNL# 76914). The goal of this project, led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL), in collaboration with Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) and Portland General Electric (PGE), was to develop and validate a deep variational recurrent neural network-based net-load prediction (VRN3P) framework for probabilistic time-series forecasting of day-ahead net-load under high solar penetration scenarios. The project team reports successful design of a novel probabilistic net-load forecasting architecture, comprising of a variational autoencoder and a recurrent neural network, which demonstrates 30% improvement in forecast performance, 60% improvement in training time, and consumes 44% less memory, when compared with conventional baseline models. The team tested the VRN3P model performance on GridLAB-D test-cases representing varying BTM solar penetration levels of 20%, 30%, and 50%, with integrated time-series net-load profiles provided by the utility partner (PGE). The VRN3P model demonstrate <2% hourly MAPE (averaged over the year) for day- ahead net-load forecast on the test scenario with 20% BTM solar. Transfer learning extension of the VRN3P model has demonstrated 8.33× speed-up in training, while still achieving acceptable forecast performance of 2.24% hourly MAPE on the 30% BTM solar penetration test-scenario. A preliminary version of the VRN3P GridAPPS-D™has been developed, along with a web-based interactive user-interface (named ‘Forte’) which has made available on GitHub for public use.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Maximal Entanglement Limit in Statistical and High-energy Physics

These lectures advocate the idea that quantum entanglement provides a unifying foundation for both statistical physics and high-energy interactions. I argue that, at sufficiently long times or high energies, most quantum systems approach a Maximal Entanglement Limit (MEL) in which phases of quantum states become unobservable, reduced density matrices acquire a thermal form, and probabilistic descriptions emerge without invoking ergodicity or classical randomness. Within this framework, the emergence of probabilistic parton model, thermalization in the break-up of confining strings and in high-energy collisions, and the universal small-x behavior of structure functions arise as direct consequences of entanglement and geometry of high-dimensional Hilbert space.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Model Calibration with Markov Chain Monte Carlo Tutorial

The purpose of this tutorial is to demonstrate how to use Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) to calibrate a model. By calibration, we mean the selection of model parameters (and, when relevant, structures). A common goal in model development and diagnostics is calibration, or the identification of model structures and parameters which are consistent with data. While models can be calibrated through hand-tuning parameters or minimizing simple error metrics such as root-mean-square-error (RMSE), these approaches can underrepresent the probabilistic nature of the data-generating process, as well as the potential for multiple model configurations to be consistent with the data. Probabilistic uncertainty quantification, which is the topic of this notebook, can address these concerns. This tutorial is presented as an appendix to the e-book: Addressing Uncertainty in MultiSector Dynamics Research.

Markov chain Monte Carlo↗
DOE OSTI2025

NE-COST plug-in: Expanding ACCERT's Capabilities for Life-Cycle Cost Modeling

The Algorithm for the Capital Cost Estimation of Reactor Technologies (ACCERT) is a structured methodology and software tool designed to simplify and standardize cost estimation for nuclear reactor technologies [1]. By utilizing a relational database structure and modular cost estimation algorithms, ACCERT delivers a robust, flexible, and scalable framework for evaluating costs across various reactor types and configurations [2]. The recent integration of the NE-COST plugin further expands ACCERT’s scope by introducing detailed life-cycle cost modeling and probabilistic analysis of uncertainties. This addition enables users to evaluate costs across front-end processes such as uranium enrichment and fabrication, as well as back-end activities including waste disposal and geologic storage. Through Monte Carlo statistical cost simulations, the plugin provides probabilistic insights into cost ranges, offering critical decision-making support for stakeholders including reactor developers, policymakers, and researchers.

Zhou, Jia↗