Results for “real and complex analysis” — Page 9

DOE OSTI2024

Deep Learning and Likelihood Approaches for Viral Phylogeography Converge on the Same Answers Whether the Inference Model Is Right or Wrong

Abstract Analysis of phylogenetic trees has become an essential tool in epidemiology. Likelihood-based methods fit models to phylogenies to draw inferences about the phylodynamics and history of viral transmission. However, these methods are often computationally expensive, which limits the complexity and realism of phylodynamic models and makes them ill-suited for informing policy decisions in real-time during rapidly developing outbreaks. Likelihood-free methods using deep learning are pushing the boundaries of inference beyond these constraints. In this paper, we extend, compare, and contrast a recently developed deep learning method for likelihood-free inference from trees. We trained multiple deep neural networks using phylogenies from simulated outbreaks that spread among 5 locations and found they achieve close to the same levels of accuracy as Bayesian inference under the true simulation model. We compared robustness to model misspecification of a trained neural network to that of a Bayesian method. We found that both models had comparable performance, converging on similar biases. We also implemented a method of uncertainty quantification called conformalized quantile regression that we demonstrate has similar patterns of sensitivity to model misspecification as Bayesian highest posterior density (HPD) and greatly overlap with HPDs, but have lower precision (more conservative). Finally, we trained and tested a neural network against phylogeographic data from a recent study of the SARS-Cov-2 pandemic in Europe and obtained similar estimates of region-specific epidemiological parameters and the location of the common ancestor in Europe. Along with being as accurate and robust as likelihood-based methods, our trained neural networks are on average over 3 orders of magnitude faster after training. Our results support the notion that neural networks can be trained with simulated data to accurately mimic the good and bad statistical properties of the likelihood functions of generative phylogenetic models.

Evolutionary Biology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Prediction of Big Data Transfer Through Experimental Analysis and Machine Learning

Big data transfer in next-generation scientific applications is now commonly carried out over connections with guaranteed bandwidth provisioned in High-performance Networks (HPNs) through advance bandwidth reservation. To use HPN resources efficiently, provisioning agents need to carefully schedule data transfer requests and allocate appropriate bandwidths. Such reserved bandwidths, if not fully utilized by the requesting user, could be simply wasted or cause extra overhead and complexity in management due to exclusive access. This calls for the capability of performance prediction to reserve bandwidth resources that match actual needs. Towards this goal, we employ machine learning algorithms to predict big data transfer performance based on extensive performance measurements, which are collected over a span of several years from a large number of data transfer tests using different protocols and toolkits between various end sites on several real-life physical or emulated HPN testbeds. We first identify a comprehensive list of attributes involved in a typical big data transfer process, including end host system configurations, network connection properties, and control parameters of data transfer methods. We then conduct an in-depth exploratory analysis of their impacts on application-level throughput, which provides insights into big data transfer performance and motivates the use of machine learning. We also investigate the applicability of machine learning algorithms and derive their general performance bounds for performance prediction of big data transfer in HPNs. Experimental results show that, with appropriate data preprocessing, the proposed machine learning-based approach achieves 95% or higher prediction accuracy in up to 90% of the cases with very noisy real-life performance measurements.

Yun, Daqing↗

DOE OSTI2022

PDC Modifications for Analysis of Gas-Cooled Reactors with Direct Helium Brayton Cycle

Capabilities of the Plant Dynamics Code (PDC) have been extended to allow steady-state and transient simulation of graphite-cooled reactors with direct helium Brayton cycle. On the cycle side, the most significant code modification is the addition of helium properties, in the format required by the code’s equations. Since the code was already formulated to handle more complex real gas properties, adding helium as working fluid that behaves like ideal gas was fairly straightforward. A reactor module was added to PDC to simulate a reactor cooled by the working fluid of the Brayton cycle. Two options are supported: channel type, typical for graphite gas-cooled reactors, and pin type, typical for light-water and liquid metal-cooled reactors. The reactor module is an extension of the electrical heater model and simulates heat deposition in the fuel and transfer of this heat from the fuel to the coolant through the matrix and tube materials. The new reactor module becomes the third option in PDC for modeling heat addition to the cycle, besides previously modeled heat addition heat exchanger and electrical heater. In addition to those changes, other minor code modifications and improvements were introduced during the work of expanding PDC to modeling of gas-cooled reactors. These modifications are summarized in the last chapter of this report.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2021

wfip2.model/realtime.hrrr_esrl.graphics.01 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

wfip2.model/realtime.hrrr_wfip2.graphics.02 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

wfip2.model/realtime.hrrr_esrl.icbc.01 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

wfip2.model/realtime.hrrr_wfip2.icbc.02 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

wfip2.model/realtime.rap_esrl.icbc.01 (Model: Real Time)

The primary purpose of WFIP2 Model Development Team is to improve existing numerical weather prediction models in a manner that leads to improved wind forecasts in regions of complex terrain. Improvements in the models will come through better understanding of the physics associated with the wind flow in and around the wind plant across a range of temporal and spatial scales, which will be gained through WFIP2’s observational field study and analysis.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Performance Prediction of Big Data Transfer Through Experimental Analysis and Machine Learning

Big data transfer in next-generation scientific ap- plications is now commonly carried out over connections with guaranteed bandwidth provisioned in High-performance Net- works (HPNs) through advance bandwidth reservation. To use HPN resources efficiently, provisioning agents need to carefully schedule data transfer requests and allocate appropriate band- widths. Such reserved bandwidths, if not fully utilized by the requesting user, could be simply wasted or cause extra overhead and complexity in management due to exclusive access. This calls for the capability of performance prediction to reserve bandwidth resources that match actual needs. Towards this goal, we employ machine learning algorithms to predict big data transfer perfor- mance based on extensive performance measurements, which are collected over a span of several years from a large number of data transfer tests using different protocols and toolkits between various end sites on several real-life physical or emulated HPN testbeds. We first identify a comprehensive list of attributes involved in a typical big data transfer process, including end host system configurations, network connection properties, and control parameters of data transfer methods. We then conduct an in-depth exploratory analysis of their impacts on application- level throughput, which provides insights into big data transfer performance and motivates the use of machine learning. We also investigate the applicability of machine learning algorithms and derive their general performance bounds for performance prediction of big data transfer in HPNs. Experimental results show that, with appropriate data preprocessing, the proposed machine learning-based approach achieves 95% or higher pre- diction accuracy in up to 90% of the cases with very noisy real-life performance measurements.

Yun, Daqing↗

DOE OSTI2024

Multi-Source Machine Learning and Thermoplastics Enhanced Aerostructure Manufacturing (mTEAM)

RTX Technology Research Center (RTRC), together with Collins Aerospace (Collins) and Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed an Artificial Intelligence (AI) / Machine Learning (ML) guided solution to advance the manufacturing and assembly of high performance and lightweight thermoplastic composite (TPC) aerospace products. The solution aims to lower risk, cost and lead time for induction heating based welding and consolidation processes for TPC structure. The cost and lead time of part and material specific process development for induction welding (IW) and induction consolidation will be reduced by replacing traditional empirical methods with optimization methods that merge AI/ML and physics-based process simulations and process experiments with sensing and controls. TPC-IW process development is empirical in nature, and uncertainties in material & process behavior exist near & far from the induction coil. Physics-based simulations can be leveraged directly for process optimization but can be too computationally expensive to run in high fidelity and real time to do robust process optimization. The key impact of successful TPC induction consolidation and welding is cost & lead time reduction for part & material specific consolidation and welding recipes. This is an enabler for more rapid deployment of TPC structures via joining assembly, which can reduce energy & cost intensive usage of autoclaves & ovens. The solution aimed to advance the U.S. Department of Energy’s interests in using thermoplastics and automation in composite manufacturing for improvement of products for existing markets via increased production speeds, reduced costs, and lowered use of energy. Welded TPC structures can offer significant weight & energy savings for high-value commercial aerospace & industrial applications compared to metal & thermoset composite structures assembled by mechanical fastening and/or adhesive bonding. The project was organized into two Budget Periods. Budget Period 1 (BP1) was 15 months and its goal was to perform ML process optimization framework development & deployment on lab-coupon aerostructure components. A Go/No-Go Review was performed at the end of BP1 to verify fulfilment of key tasks & milestones to justify a Go Decision to move into the next Budget Period. Budget Period 2 (BP2) was 12 months and its goal was the deployment of the ML framework for ML process optimization of pilot industrial scale aerostructure components. The overall project aim was to develop & demonstrate ML-enhanced modeling framework that learns process-property mapping from multiple data sources at different fidelities. During BP1, the team accomplished key tasks & milestones to demonstrate the concept of multi-source ML for TPC aerostructure consolidation and assembly. First, the team completed documentation of induction based TPC heating requirements including baseline metrics to compare measured results against. Next the team completed demonstration of data generation from physics-based simulations for ML surrogate model generation and demonstrated the integration of physics-based simulation data into multi-source AI/ML algorithms. In parallel, the team established the lab-coupon scale induction welding system and completed a process to label and reduce generated data from physics-based simulation and experiments for ML surrogate models to enable multi-source ML model training & testing. To complete BP1, the team integrated physics-based simulation data and experimental data into multi-source ML algorithms. This was based on the team completing ML deployment of the induction welding on a lab system at RTRC and AI/ML deployment on existing induction welding line at Collins. ORNL visited both Collins and RTRC sites to witness the TPC induction welding process. Then, ORNL designed and constructed a new version of their vision-based sensing system better adapted to acquire process signals of the TPC induction welding process for process anomaly and defect detection. In BP2, the team accomplished key tasks & milestones to scale up multi-source ML for TPC aerostructure consolidation and assembly from the lab-coupon scale to the pilot-industrial scale. In BP2, the team demonstrated real time anomaly & defect detection via experiments performed by ORNL & RTRC. The team completed ML-optimization heating trials for TPC induction consolidation at Collins, and the team confirmed pilot industrial scale experimental data from Collins was compatible with the developed ML pipeline from RTRC. The team completed sub-element scale ML process optimization demonstration at RTRC, where the team leveraged RTRC’s robotic TPC welding setup to de-risk the ML process optimization by performing ML analysis of recorded temperatures to account for complex part features. Then, the team applied its ML-derived control strategies and ML process optimization framework at Collins to the pilot-industrial scale on a demo skin-stiffener part representative of a nacelle aerostructure fan cowl section. The key innovation is the AI/ML framework enabling effective process development of high performance, lightweight, energy efficient TPCs for composite aircraft structures.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2023

Domain Adaptation for Measurements of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Upcoming surveys are predicted to discover galaxy-scale strong lenses on the order of 10\textsuperscript{5}, making deep learning methods necessary in lensing data analysis. Currently, there is insufficient real lensing data to train deep learning algorithms, but the alternative of training only on simulated data results in poor performance on real data. Domain Adaptation may be able to bridge the gap between simulated and real datasets. We utilize domain adaptation for the estimation of Einstein radius ($\Theta_E$) in simulated galaxy-scale gravitational lensing images with different levels of observational realism. We evaluate two domain adaptation techniques - Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We train on a source domain of simulated lenses and apply it to a target domain of lenses simulated to emulate noise conditions in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that both domain adaptation techniques can significantly improve the model performance on the more complex target domain dataset. This work is the first application of domain adaptation for a regression task in strong lensing imaging analysis. Our results show the potential of using domain adaptation to perform analysis of future survey data with a deep neural network trained on simulated data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Domain Adaptation for Measurements of Strong Gravitational Lenses

Upcoming surveys are predicted to discover galaxy-scale strong lenses on the order of $10^5$, making deep learning methods necessary in lensing data analysis. Currently, there is insufficient real lensing data to train deep learning algorithms, but the alternative of training only on simulated data results in poor performance on real data. Domain Adaptation may be able to bridge the gap between simulated and real datasets. We utilize domain adaptation for the estimation of Einstein radius ($\Theta_E$) in simulated galaxy-scale gravitational lensing images with different levels of observational realism. We evaluate two domain adaptation techniques - Domain Adversarial Neural Networks (DANN) and Maximum Mean Discrepancy (MMD). We train on a source domain of simulated lenses and apply it to a target domain of lenses simulated to emulate noise conditions in the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We show that both domain adaptation techniques can significantly improve the model performance on the more complex target domain dataset. This work is the first application of domain adaptation for a regression task in strong lensing imaging analysis. Our results show the potential of using domain adaptation to perform analysis of future survey data with a deep neural network trained on simulated data.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2026

V1G Frequency Regulation: Algorithm Development, Validation & Analysis at Scale

Researchers at Argonne National Laboratory developed and validated a high-fidelity digital twin of a smart charging (V1G) ecosystem to model the participation of up to 1,000 unique electric vehicles (EVs) in the PJM frequency regulation market. Utilizing a discrete-event framework, the simulation models complex interactions, from dynamic grid signals (updated every 2 seconds) to individual EV charging dynamics. The simulation incorporates multiple EV models created from real-world lab test data. Researchers tested multiple control algorithms to balance the dual objectives of maximizing aggregator’s revenue and driver charging needs. Results demonstrate that aggregated EVs function as a controllable, highly effective grid resource, achieving high PJM Performance Scores (80–90%). Additionally, an optimized, market-aware bidding strategy was identified as key to profitability. The platform was shown to provide drivers with an average charging discount of nearly 50%. The algorithm was further validated in the lab using production EVs and charging stations to compare simulation results with real-world performance.

Manne, Nithin↗

DOE OSTI2020

Local Atomic Structure in Photo-isomerized Ruthenium Sulfur Dioxide Complexes Revealed by Pair Distribution Function Analysis

SO 2 linkage photoisomerization in crystalline ruthenium-based complexes has demonstrated nanophotonic phenomena such as optical switching and nano-optomechanical transduction. Molecular insights into these materials have been explored largely via the characterization of their photoinduced crystal structures via in situ single-crystal X-ray diffraction, known as photocrystallography. Photoinduced molecular disorder is present, which photocrystallography can model to the extent that it is confined within the periodic boundary of a unit cell. However, non-periodic molecular disorder is suspected to exist as well. In situ total scattering experiments were therefore carried out on finely powdered crystals of four ruthenium-sulfur dioxide complexes. Data were modeled using light-minus-dark' difference pair distribution function analysis, which afforded photoinduced structural changes exclusively. This revealed structural features that were first compared against models of photoinduced crystal structures known a priori from photocrystallography. Furthermore, statistical inference was then employed, which evidenced generally good agreement between the total scattering data and the photocrystallographic models, while revealing real differences that are indicative of a structure with only a short-range order. Overall, our findings demonstrate that in situ light-induced total scattering experiments on finely powdered crystals are able to reveal the photoinduced structure. Overall, the evidence suggests that such structure could include a short-range order as well as photocrystallographic content. Our demonstration experiment offers a pathway to develop studies that capture the short-range order in linkage photoisomers, while we have outlined the procedure for testing the validity of associated structural models.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Decentralized Graph-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Digital Twin for Traffic Signal Optimization

Machine learning (ML) methods, particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), have gained widespread attention for optimizing traffic signal control in intelligent transportation systems. However, existing ML approaches often exhibit limitations in scalability and adaptability, particularly within large traffic networks. This paper introduces an innovative solution by integrating decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin to enhance traffic signal optimization, targeting the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption associated with vehicle stops and stop delays. In this approach, DGMARL agents are employed to learn traffic state patterns and make informed decisions regarding traffic signal control. The integration with a Digital Twin module further facilitates this process by simulating and replicating the real-time asymmetric traffic behaviors of a complex traffic network. The evaluation of this proposed methodology utilized PTV-Vissim, a traffic simulation software, which also serves as the simulation engine for the Digital Twin. The study focused on the Martin Luther King (MLK) Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, by considering symmetric and asymmetric road layouts and traffic conditions. Comparative analysis against an actuated signal control baseline approach revealed significant improvements. Experiment results demonstrate a remarkable 55.38% reduction in Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the cumulative impact of stops and penalized stop delays on fuel consumption, over a 24 h scenario. In a PM-peak-hour scenario, the average reduction in Eco_PI reached 38.94%, indicating the substantial improvement achieved in optimizing traffic flow and reducing fuel consumption during high-demand periods. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the integrated DGMARL and Digital Twin approach in optimizing traffic signals, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient traffic management system.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Integration of Decentralized Graph-Based Multi-Agent Reinforcement Learning with Digital Twin for Traffic Signal Optimization

Machine learning (ML) methods, particularly Reinforcement Learning (RL), have gained widespread attention for optimizing traffic signal control in intelligent transportation systems. However, existing ML approaches often exhibit limitations in scalability and adaptability, particularly within large traffic networks. This paper introduces an innovative solution by integrating decentralized graph-based multi-agent reinforcement learning (DGMARL) with a Digital Twin to enhance traffic signal optimization, targeting the reduction of traffic congestion and network-wide fuel consumption associated with vehicle stops and stop delays. In this approach, DGMARL agents are employed to learn traffic state patterns and make informed decisions regarding traffic signal control. The integration with a Digital Twin module further facilitates this process by simulating and replicating the real-time asymmetric traffic behaviors of a complex traffic network. The evaluation of this proposed methodology utilized PTV-Vissim, a traffic simulation software, which also serves as the simulation engine for the Digital Twin. The study focused on the Martin Luther King (MLK) Smart Corridor in Chattanooga, Tennessee, USA, by considering symmetric and asymmetric road layouts and traffic conditions. Comparative analysis against an actuated signal control baseline approach revealed significant improvements. Experiment results demonstrate a remarkable 55.38% reduction in Eco_PI, a developed performance measure capturing the cumulative impact of stops and penalized stop delays on fuel consumption, over a 24 h scenario. In a PM-peak-hour scenario, the average reduction in Eco_PI reached 38.94%, indicating the substantial improvement achieved in optimizing traffic flow and reducing fuel consumption during high-demand periods. These findings underscore the effectiveness of the integrated DGMARL and Digital Twin approach in optimizing traffic signals, contributing to a more sustainable and efficient traffic management system.

actuated signal control↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grid impact analysis using controller-hardware-in-the-loop for high-power vehicle charging stations

A controller-hardware-in-the-loop (CHIL) architecture for the evaluation of grid impacts arising from high-power vehicle charging stations is presented in this paper. Unlike simulation-based studies, the proposed method can be used to capture the interactions of the grid and the charging load along with charger controllers in real time. The proposed method can be used to evaluate the impact of charging load on the grid in terms of voltage variations and line congestion. The proposed CHIL platform allows for de-risking the vehicle charging station deployment by simulating the complex interactions among all the components of a vehicle charging station - i.e., the grid, vehicle, and charger controller - in a realistic manner before using the charging station in a grid. Further, the proposed CHIL approach can be used to evaluate the voltage regulation causalities of the vehicle charging station. Experimental results are presented in the paper to illustrate the applicability of the proposed method in a laboratory environment.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Signal Processing Based Method for Real-Time Anomaly Detection in High-Performance Computing

Performance anomalies can manifest as irregular execution times or abnormal execution events for many reasons, including network congestion and resource contention. Detecting such anomalies in real-time by analyzing the details of performance traces at scale is impractical due to the sheer volume of data High-Performance Computing (HPC) applications produce. In this paper, we propose formulating HPC performance anomaly detection as a signal-processing problem where anomalies can be treated as noise. We evaluate our proposed method in comparison with two other commonly used anomaly detection techniques of varying complexity based on their detection accuracy and scalability. Since real-time in-situ anomaly detection at a large scale requires lightweight methods that can handle a large volume of streaming data, we find that our proposed method provides the best trade-off. We then implement the proposed method in Chimbuko, the first online, distributed, and scalable workflow-level performance trace analysis framework. We compare our proposed signal-based anomaly detection algorithm with two other methods using a function of their accuracy, F1 score, and detection overhead. Our experiments demonstrate that our proposed approach achieves a 99% improvement for the benchmark datasets and a 93% improvement with Chimbuko traces.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗