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NASA NTRS2018

The Role of Atmospheric Teleconnections and Local Forcings in Predicting Greenland Ice Sheet Surface Mass Loss

In recent decades, the Arctic climate has experienced substantial climactic change, including significant decreases in both sea ice extent and Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance. These trends are overlain by substantial interannual variability in atmospheric circulation driven by large-scale atmospheric teleconnection patterns. In addition, there is evidence to suggest that the removal of Arctic sea ice can alter local atmospheric circulation through increased air temperature, clouds, and water vapor, which may contribute to increased surface melting on the GrIS. Here, we seek to characterize how these processes are linked to Greenland Ice Sheet surface mass loss and constrain how the representation of these forcings can impact the prediction of meltwater runoff within the NASA Goddard Earth Observing System Model (GEOS) seasonal-to-subseasonal forecasting system (S2S v2.1). To do this, we use a combination of the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications version 2 (MERRA-2) reanalysis product, retrospective seasonal forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1, and independent GEOS simulations. Results from MERRA-2 reanalysis indicate that the negative phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) results in warm surface air temperatures and reduced precipitation across Greenland, both of which act to enhance summer ice surface mass losses. When compared with MERRA-2, retrospective forecasts from the GEOS S2S v2.1 system effectively reproduce the pattern of summer GrIS surface mass loss and demonstrate reasonable skill in predicting the magnitude of meltwater runoff at leads of 1 to 3 months. However, during periods with a strong negative NAO, ice sheet surface mass balance is substantially underestimated. This pattern is also associated with an underprediction of the Greenland Blocking Index height and over prediction of sea ice extent, suggesting that both local and non-local forcings may play a role in the reduced prediction skill during these periods. Using both retrospective forecasts and independent simulations, we characterize the relative importance of local and non-local mechanisms in driving summer GrIS

Andrews, Lauren C.↗
NASA NTRS2015

An Assessment of Southern Ocean Water Masses and Sea Ice During 1988-2007 in a Suite of Interannual CORE-II Simulations

We characterise the representation of the Southern Ocean water mass structure and sea ice within a suite of 15 global ocean-ice models run with the Coordinated Ocean-ice Reference Experiment Phase II (CORE-II) protocol. The main focus is the representation of the present (1988-2007) mode and intermediate waters, thus framing an analysis of winter and summer mixed layer depths; temperature, salinity, and potential vorticity structure; and temporal variability of sea ice distributions. We also consider the interannual variability over the same 20 year period. Comparisons are made between models as well as to observation-based analyses where available. The CORE-II models exhibit several biases relative to Southern Ocean observations, including an underestimation of the model mean mixed layer depths of mode and intermediate water masses in March (associated with greater ocean surface heat gain), and an overestimation in September (associated with greater high latitude ocean heat loss and a more northward winter sea-ice extent). In addition, the models have cold and fresh/warm and salty water column biases centred near 50 deg S. Over the 1988-2007 period, the CORE-II models consistently simulate spatially variable trends in sea-ice concentration, surface freshwater fluxes, mixed layer depths, and 200-700 m ocean heat content. In particular, sea-ice coverage around most of the Antarctic continental shelf is reduced, leading to a cooling and freshening of the near surface waters. The shoaling of the mixed layer is associated with increased surface buoyancy gain, except in the Pacific where sea ice is also influential. The models are in disagreement, despite the common CORE-II atmospheric state, in their spatial pattern of the 20-year trends in the mixed layer depth and sea-ice.

Sea ice↗
NASA NTRS2021

Validation of IASI Satellite Ammonia Observations at the Pixel Scale Using In Situ Vertical Profiles

Satellite ammonia (NH 3 ) observations provide unprecedented insights into NH3 emissions, spatiotemporal variabilities and trends, but validation with in situ measurements remains lacking. Here, total columns from the Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) were intercompared to boundary layer NH 3 profiles derived from aircraft- and surface-based measurements primarily in Colorado, USA, in the summer of 2014. IASI-NH 3 version 3 near real-time data set compared well to in situ derived columns (windows ±15 km around centroid, ±1 h around overpass time) with a correlation of 0.58, a slope of 0.78 ± 0.14 and an intercept of 2.1 × 10 15 ±1.5 × 10 15 molecules cm −2 . Agreement degrades at larger spatiotemporal windows, consistent with the short atmospheric lifetime of NH 3 . We also examined IASI version 3R data, which relies on temperature retrievals from the ERA Reanalysis, and a third product generated using aircraft-measured temperature profiles. The overall agreement improves slightly for both cases, and neither is biased within their combined measurement errors. Thus, spatiotemporal averaging of IASI over large windows can be used to reduce retrieval noise. Nonetheless, sampling artifacts of airborne NH 3 instruments result in significant uncertainties of the in situ-derived columns. For example, large validation differences exist between ascent and descent profiles, and the assumptions of the free tropospheric NH 3 profiles used above the aircraft ceiling significantly impact the validation. Because short-lived species like NH 3 largely reside within the boundary layer with complex vertical structures, more comprehensive validation is needed across a wide range of environments. More accurate and widespread in situ NH 3 data sets are therefore required for improved validations of satellite products.

Ammonia↗
NASA NTRS2017

Zero-Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Experiment: Ground-Based Validation of Self-Pressurization and Pressure Control Two-Phase CFD Model

Integral to all phases of NASA's projected space and planetary expeditions is affordable and reliable cryogenic fluid storage for use in propellant or life support systems. Cryogen vaporization due to heat leaks into the tank from its surroundings and support structure can cause self-pressurization relieved through venting. This has led to a desire to develop innovative pressure control designs based on mixing of the bulk tank fluid together with some form of active or passive cooling to allow storage of the cryogenic fluid with zero or reduced boil-off. The Zero-Boil-Off Tank (ZBOT) Experiments are a series of small scale tank pressurization and pressure control experiments aboard the International Space Station (ISS) that use a transparent volatile simulant fluid in a transparent sealed tank to delineate various fundamental fluid flow, heat and mass transport, and phase change phenomena that control storage tank pressurization and pressure control in microgravity. The hardware for ZBOT-1 flew to ISS on the OA-7 flight in April 2017 and operations are planned to begin in September 2017, encompassing more than 90 tests. This paper presents preliminary results from ZBOT's ground-based research delineating both pressurization and pressure reduction trends in the sealed test tank. Tank self-pressurization tests are conducted under three modes: VJ heating, strip heating and simultaneous VJ and strip heating in attempt to simulate heat leaks from the environment, the support structure and both. The jet mixing pressure control studies are performed either from an elevated uniform temperature condition or from thermally stratified conditions following a self-pressurization run. Jet flow rates are varied from 2-25 cm/s spanning a range of jet Re number in laminar, transitional, and turbulent regimes and a range of Weber numbers covering no ullage penetration, partial penetration and complete ullage penetration and break-up (only in microgravity). Numerical prediction of a two-phase CFD model are compared to experimental 1g results to both validate the model and also indicate the effect of the residual non-condensable gas on evolution of pressure and temperature distributions in the tank during pressurization and pressure control.

microgravity evaporation condensatio↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Calorimeter Heat Flux Trends in NASA’s Subscale Rotating Detonation Rocket Engine

A calorimeter-style rotating detonation rocket engine (RDRE) outer chamber body was designed, additively manufactured in GRCop-42, and hot-fire tested in test cell 105 at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) in Huntsville, AL in August 2024. Steady-state, spatially resolved heat flux and chamber pressure were measured at 13 and 9 locations from the injector face, respectively, for a variety of test conditions and hardware configurations with gaseous methane and oxygen propellants. The 2-in. diameter highly instrumented design, enabled by metal additive manufacturing (AM), allowed for simultaneous measurement of heat flux and chamber pressure through 44 long duration hot-fire tests without failure. Of the 44 tests, only 3 of the tests featured chamber pressures below 100 psia and are discussed in this work. Heat flux trends for this subscale hardware are explored with respect to local propellant mass flux for several different injectors, chamber lengths, and chamber “subsonic” area ratios (contraction ratios). Results show that for increasing chamber pressure, a reduced amount of energy per kilogram of propellant is transferred to the wall. Switching injectors affects the near-face heat flux and chamber pressure profiles. Chamber length does not noticeably affect the heat flux profile but increases bulk heat load. A subsonic area ratio greater than 1 reduces heat losses to the wall compared to a straight annulus case. Equivalence ratio shift did not significantly affect heat flux. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and conjugate heat transfer (CHT) analyses were performed to delineate 3-D heat transfer and coolant mass flow maldistribution effects and create a calorimeter transfer function to transform heat flux data and mitigate the profile distortions. Additional CFD/CHT simulations were performed using experimental data as boundary conditions to assess local nucleate boiling propensity during testing and to assess projected hot wall temperatures for future fatigue assessment. Vapor fractions were observed locally for several cases. It is anticipated that this effort will provide a common framework for coolant system design/analysis in calorimeter systems for rocket-based and air-breathing combustors, ensuring greater repeatability in calorimetry measurements across the research community.

Joseph Hernandez-McCloskey↗
NASA NTRS2017

Comparison of Passive Microwave-Derived Early Melt Onset Records on Arctic Sea Ice

Two long records of melt onset (MO) on Arctic sea ice from passive microwave brightness temperatures (Tbs) obtained by a series of satellite-borne instruments are compared. The Passive Microwave (PMW) method and Advanced Horizontal Range Algorithm (AHRA) detect the increase in emissivity that occurs when liquid water develops around snow grains at the onset of early melting on sea ice. The timing of MO on Arctic sea ice influences the amount of solar radiation absorbed by the ice-ocean system throughout the melt season by reducing surface albedos in the early spring. This work presents a thorough comparison of these two methods for the time series of MO dates from 1979through 2012. The methods are first compared using the published data as a baseline comparison of the publically available data products. A second comparison is performed on adjusted MO dates we produced to remove known differences in inter-sensor calibration of Tbs and masking techniques used to develop the original MO date products. These adjustments result in a more consistent set of input Tbs for the algorithms. Tests of significance indicate that the trends in the time series of annual mean MO dates for the PMW and AHRA are statistically different for the majority of the Arctic Ocean including the Laptev, E. Siberian, Chukchi, Beaufort, and central Arctic regions with mean differences as large as 38.3 days in the Barents Sea. Trend agreement improves for our more consistent MO dates for nearly all regions. Mean differences remain large, primarily due to differing sensitivity of in-algorithm thresholds and larger uncertainties in thin-ice regions.

sea ice↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evaluating Long-Term Changes in Atmospheric Ozone

Ozonesondes have made inexpensive, accurate measurements of ozone from the ground to 30km for more than 50 years. The data are used extensively for trend analyses and for evaluation of satellite and model data products, and are also part of climatologies that are used as a priori data for satellite retrievals. They are essential as a transfer standard when merging shorter satellite-derived time series, and are the most important source of trend-quality long-term records below about 18 km. The importance of long-term ozonesonde records as a stable reference has led to increased attention to quantifying uncertainties and changes in ozonesonde data. Based on past intercomparison data, ECC sondes show a modest (~1-5%) high bias with respect to UV-absorption measurements (including MOZAIC-IAGOS) in the troposphere, with an uncertainty of 5%, but no evidence of a change with time. Other sonde types show an increase of 5-20% in sensitivity to tropospheric ozone from 1970-1995. Agreement in the stratosphere is much better. In the past 20 years ozonesonde precision has improved by a factor of 2, primarily through the adoption of strict standard operating procedures. In addition, many of the most important ozonesonde records have been re-evaluated and corrected, and detailed estimates made of their biases and uncertainties. Corrections to historical data for known issues may reduce biases but simultaneously introduce additional uncertainties. The uncertainty budget for the ozone partial pressure reading has contributions from stoichiometry, cell background current, pump efficiency and temperature, sensing solution type and volume. The much-discussed “background current” has recently been shown to be primarily related to reaction stoichiometry. Several quality assurance issues remain, but are tractable problems that can be addressed with further research. This will be required if the present goal of better than 5% overall uncertainty throughout the global ozonesonde network is to be achieved. Finally, the importance of regular sonde intercomparisons, employing UV photometers traceable to the modern UV-absorption standard, and of regular comparison of operational station records with multiple satellite sensors, is emphasized.

Ozonesondes↗
NASA NTRS2019

Total Temperature Measurements in Icing Cloud Flows Using a Rearward Facing Probe

This paper reports on temperature and humidity measurements from a series of ice-crystal icing tunnel experiments conducted in June 2018 at the Propulsion Systems Laboratory at the NASA Glenn Research Center. The tests were fundamental in nature and were aimed at investigating the icing processes on a two-dimensional NACA0012 airfoil subjected to artificially generated icing clouds. Prior to the tests on the airfoil, a suite of instruments, including total temperature and humidity probes, were used to characterize the thermodynamic flow and icing cloud conditions of the facility. Two different total temperature probes were used in these tests which included a custom designed rearward facing probe and a commercial self-heating total temperature probe. The rearward facing probe, the main total temperature probe, was designed to reduce and mitigate the contaminating effects of icing and ingestion of ice crystals and water droplets at the probe's inlet. The probe also serves as an air-sample inlet for a light absorption based humidity measurement. The paper includes a section which discusses total temperature and humidity measurement considerations, and another section which provides an analysis of the main probe's performance characteristics. A computational fluid dynamic model of the flow around the probe was also conducted to gain insight into the trajectory of the flow entering the probe inlet. The experiments included a series of tests in which the relative humidity of the facility flow was swept through with increasingly larger values. The data showed that the rearward facing probe can reasonably capture the flow's total temperature and humidity under mild to moderate icing conditions but produces anomalous results under more intense icing conditions. The experimental data was also compared to an in-house developed thermodynamic model which takes into account the interaction of the main flow with the icing cloud. Comparison to the thermodynamic model showed that the rearward facing probe measured the predicted trends.

Agui, Juan H.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Maturation of In-space Welding in Reduced Gravity and Reduced Pressure Environments Through Progression to Suborbital Flight Experiments

Development of in-space welding (ISW) is a key and enabling manufacturing technology as welding is currently involved in producing approximately 90% of durable goods, and this trend is expected to hold for in-space manufacturing as well. ISW is critical to a sustainable space economy. To mature in-space welding, numerous gaps must be closed since NASA has not made a weld in space in 50 years. Advancing laser beam welding (LBW) towards a suborbital flight demonstration will help mature the process for in-space assembly & manufacturing (ISAM) through demonstration in relevant environments and achieving technology readiness milestones. LBW technologies and science improved by this work will benefit in-space manufacturing, long-term sustainability of space structures & operations, and the overall space economy. Ground-based welding of aerospace hardware requires an Edisonian approach to qualify a welding process; however, this approach is infeasible for ISW qualification due to mass, volume, logistic, and cost challenges inherent to the space environment. To address this challenge, we are conducting ground and suborbital tests with partners performing parabolic flights to gather data on LBW processes and infuse them into NASA & partner missions. This progression from ground to flight experiments will elucidate relevant physics during LBW: 1) reduced gravity, 2) reduced pressure, and 3) extreme temperature. Data from post-flight evaluation and in situ instrumentation will feed integrated computational materials engineering (ICME) tools to reduce the burden of ISW infusion by establishing a link between space and terrestrial environments, ultimately accelerating the qualification of LBW in space.

in-space welding↗
NASA NTRS1992

Wrap-up session

Listening to the case studies that were presented it became quite evident that the best data management systems were the ones where data managers and research scientists worked as a team developed in the early stages of project planning. Examples that were given included WOCE Data Assembly Centres e.g., Drifters, the Global Temperature Salinity Pilot Project (GTSPP) collaboration with Joint Analyses Centres in the U.S. and Australia, and JGOFS/BOFS development of Topical Centres. While each of these has some elements unique to the project, each had brought together 'teams' of Principal Investigators (PI's) and data management experts at an early stage of project development. Conversely, projects which had considered data management as a totally separate activity with lower priority often failed to provide the service required to meet scientific objectives. Therefore, the following actions should be brought to the attention of relevant groups within the IOC and other international organizations: (1) Publicize, at the national and international level, underway data/scientist collaborations that may be used as models in planning for the future. (2) Reduce adversarial situations where data managers and scientists appear to be in competition. (3) Colocation and other forms of collaboration often results in very high quality data sets and more timely data submission. Improved timeliness of data submissions was a common theme throughout the workshop and must be considered an important element in all future plans. Improvements in timely submission of data were noted. In order to continue this trend the advantages of timely submission of data must be stressed to those planning new ocean science projects.

Holland, Geoffrey↗
NASA NTRS2001

Buffer Gas Acquisition and Storage

The acquisition and storage of buffer gases (primarily argon and nitrogen) from the Mars atmosphere provides a valuable resource for blanketing and pressurizing fuel tanks and as a buffer gas for breathing air for manned missions. During the acquisition of carbon dioxide (CO2), whether by sorption bed or cryo-freezer, the accompanying buffer gases build up in the carbon dioxide acquisition system, reduce the flow of CO2 to the bed, and lower system efficiency. It is this build up of buffer gases that provide a convenient source, which must be removed, for efficient capture Of CO2 Removal of this buffer gas barrier greatly improves the charging rate of the CO2 acquisition bed and, thereby, maintains the fuel production rates required for a successful mission. Consequently, the acquisition, purification, and storage of these buffer gases are important goals of ISRU plans. Purity of the buffer gases is a concern e.g., if the CO, freezer operates at 140 K, the composition of the inert gas would be approximately 21 percent CO2, 50 percent nitrogen, and 29 percent argon. Although there are several approaches that could be used, this effort focused on a hollow-fiber membrane (HFM) separation method. This study measured the permeation rates of CO2, nitrogen (ND, and argon (Ar) through a multiple-membrane system and the individual membranes from room temperature to 193K and 10 kpa to 300 kPa. Concentrations were measured with a gas chromatograph that used a thermoconductivity (TCD) detector with helium (He) as the carrier gas. The general trend as the temperature was lowered was for the membranes to become more selective, In addition, the relative permeation rates between the three gases changed with temperature. The end result was to provide design parameters that could be used to separate CO2 from N2 and Ar.

Parrish, Clyde F.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

The perennial ice area was drastically reduced to 38% of its climatological average in 2007 but recovered somewhat in 2008, 2009 and 2010 with the areas being 10%, 24%, and 11% higher than in 2007, respectively. However, the trends in the extent and area remain strongly negative at -12.2% and -13.5 %/decade, respectively. The thick component of the perennial ice, called multiyear ice, as detected by satellite data in the winters of 1979 to 2011 was studied and results reveal that the multiyear ice extent and area are declining at an even more rapid rate of -15.1% and -17.2 % per decade, respectively, with record low value in 2008 followed by higher values in 2009, 2010 and 2011. Such high rate in the decline of the thick component of the Arctic ice cover means a reduction in average ice thickness and an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. The decline of the multiyear ice area from 2007 to 2008 was not as strong as that of the perennial ice area from 2006 to 2007 suggesting a strong role of second year ice melt in the latter. The sea ice cover is shown to be strongly correlated with surface temperature which is increasing at about three times global average in the Arctic but appears weakly correlated with the AO which controls the dynamics of the region. An 8 to 9-year cycle is apparent in the multiyear ice record which could explain in part the slight recovery in the last three years.

Comiso, Josefino C.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Monitoring Digital Closed-Loop Feedback Systems

A technique of monitoring digital closed-loop feedback systems has been conceived. The basic idea is to obtain information on the performances of closed-loop feedback circuits in such systems to aid in the determination of the functionality and integrity of the circuits and of performance margins. The need for this technique arises as follows: Some modern digital systems include feedback circuits that enable other circuits to perform with precision and are tolerant of changes in environment and the device s parameters. For example, in a precision timing circuit, it is desirable to make the circuit insensitive to variability as a result of the manufacture of circuit components and to the effects of temperature, voltage, radiation, and aging. However, such a design can also result in masking the indications of damaged and/or deteriorating components. The present technique incorporates test circuitry and associated engineering-telemetry circuitry into an embedded system to monitor the closed-loop feedback circuits, using spare gates that are often available in field programmable gate arrays (FPGAs). This technique enables a test engineer to determine the amount of performance margin in the system, detect out of family circuit performance, and determine one or more trend(s) in the performance of the system. In one system to which the technique has been applied, an ultra-stable oscillator is used as a reference for internal adjustment of 12 time-to-digital converters (TDCs). The feedback circuit produces a pulse-width-modulated signal that is fed as a control input into an amplifier, which controls the circuit s operating voltage. If the circuit s gates are determined to be operating too slowly or rapidly when their timing is compared with that of the reference signal, then the pulse width increases or decreases, respectively, thereby commanding the amplifier to increase or reduce, respectively, its output level, and "adjust" the speed of the circuits. The nominal frequency of the TDC s pulse width modulated outputs is approximately 40 kHz. In this system, the technique is implemented by means of a monitoring circuit that includes a 20-MHz sampling circuit and a 24-bit accumulator with a gate time of 10 ms. The monitoring circuit measures the duty cycle of each of the 12 TDCs at a repetition rate of 28 Hz. The accumulator content is reset to all zeroes at the beginning of each measurement period and is then incremented or decremented based of the value of the state of the pulse width modulated signal. Positive or negative values in the accumulator correspond to duty cycles greater or less, respectively, than 50 percent.

Katz, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2011

Coupled Aerosol-Chemistry-Climate Twentieth-Century Transient Model Investigation: Trends in Short-Lived Species and Climate Responses

The authors simulate transient twentieth-century climate in the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) GCM, with aerosol and ozone chemistry fully coupled to one another and to climate including a full dynamic ocean. Aerosols include sulfate, black carbon (BC), organic carbon, nitrate, sea salt, and dust. Direct and BC snow-albedo radiative effects are included. Model BC and sulfur trends agree fairly well with records from Greenland and European ice cores and with sulfur deposition in North America; however, the model underestimates the sulfur decline at the end of the century in Greenland. Global BC effects peak early in the century (1940s); afterward the BC effects decrease at high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere but continue to increase at lower latitudes. The largest increase in aerosol optical depth occurs in the middle of the century (1940s-80s) when sulfate forcing peaks and causes global dimming. After this, aerosols decrease in eastern North America and northern Eurasia leading to regional positive forcing changes and brightening. These surface forcing changes have the correct trend but are too weak. Over the century, the net aerosol direct effect is -0.41 Watts per square meter, the BC-albedo effect is -0.02 Watts per square meter, and the net ozone forcing is +0.24 Watts per square meter. The model polar stratospheric ozone depletion develops, beginning in the 1970s. Concurrently, the sea salt load and negative radiative flux increase over the oceans around Antarctica. Net warming over the century is modeled fairly well; however, the model fails to capture the dynamics of the observedmidcentury cooling followed by the late century warming.Over the century, 20% of Arctic warming and snow ice cover loss is attributed to the BC albedo effect. However, the decrease in this effect at the end of the century contributes to Arctic cooling. To test the climate responses to sulfate and BC pollution, two experiments were branched from 1970 that removed all pollution sulfate or BC. Averaged over 1970-2000, the respective radiative forcings relative to the full experiment were +0.3 and -0.3 Watts per square meter; the average surface air temperature changes were +0.2 degrees and -0.03 C. The small impact of BC reduction on surface temperature resulted from reduced stability and loss of low-level clouds.

Koch, Dorothy↗
NASA NTRS2012

Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

Climate model simulations suggest that the extratropical storm tracks will shift poleward as a consequence of global warming. In this study the northern and southern hemisphere storm tracks over the Pacific and Atlantic ocean basins are studied using observational data, primarily from the International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project, ISCCP. Potential shifts in the storm tracks are examined using the observed cloud structures as proxies for cyclone activity. Different data analysis methods are employed, with the objective to address difficulties and uncertainties in using ISCCP data for regional trend analysis. In particular, three data filtering techniques are explored; excluding specific problematic regions from the analysis, regressing out a spurious viewing geometry effect, and excluding specific cloud types from the analysis. These adjustments all, to varying degree, moderate the cloud trends in the original data but leave the qualitative aspects of those trends largely unaffected. Therefore, our analysis suggests that ISCCP data can be used to interpret regional trends in cloudiness, provided that data and instrumental artefacts are recognized and accounted for. The variation in magnitude between trends emerging from application of different data correction methods, allows us to estimate possible ranges for the observational changes. It is found that the storm tracks, here represented by the extent of the midlatitude-centered band of maximum cloud cover over the studied ocean basins, experience a poleward shift as well as a narrowing over the 25 year period covered by ISCCP. The observed magnitudes of these effects are larger than in current generation climate models (CMIP3). The magnitude of the shift is particularly large in the northern hemisphere Atlantic. This is also the one of the four regions in which imperfect data primarily prevents us from drawing firm conclusions. The shifted path and reduced extent of the storm track cloudiness is accompanied by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

Bender, Frida A-M.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Large Decadal Decline of the Arctic Multiyear Ice Cover

The perennial ice area was drastically reduced to 38% of its climatological average in 2007 but recovered slightly in 2008, 2009, and 2010 with the areas being 10%, 24%, and 11% higher than in 2007, respectively. However, trends in extent and area remained strongly negative at -12.2% and -13.5% decade (sup -1), respectively. The thick component of the perennial ice, called multiyear ice, as detected by satellite data during the winters of 1979-2011 was studied, and results reveal that the multiyear ice extent and area are declining at an even more rapid rate of -15.1% and -17.2% decade(sup -1), respectively, with a record low value in 2008 followed by higher values in 2009, 2010, and 2011. Such a high rate in the decline of the thick component of the Arctic ice cover means a reduction in the average ice thickness and an even more vulnerable perennial ice cover. The decline of the multiyear ice area from 2007 to 2008 was not as strong as that of the perennial ice area from 2006 to 2007, suggesting a strong role of second-year ice melt in the latter. The sea ice cover is shown to be strongly correlated with surface temperature, which is increasing at about 3 times the global average in the Arctic but appears weakly correlated with the Arctic Oscillation (AO), which controls the atmospheric circulation in the region. An 8-9-yr cycle is apparent in the multiyear ice record, which could explain, in part, the slight recovery in the last 3 yr.

Arctic↗
NASA NTRS2017

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Air Radiation in Superorbital Expanding Flow

To investigate air radiation in expanding flows and provide experimental data for validating associated computational models, experiments were conducted in the X2 expansion tunnel facility at the Centre for Hypersonics of the University of Queensland. A 54deg turning angle wedge model was employed to generate steady expanding flows with in flow total enthalpies of 50.7, 63.4 and 75.4 MJ/kg. VUV spectra from 118 to 180 nm were acquired across the wedge at three equispaced distances away from the top of the model, as well as through its top surface. High speed filtered images were also obtained by coupling a Shimadzu 1 MHz high speed camera to a bandpass filter to obtain calibrated images of the 777 nm oxygen triplet. Both the across-wedge VUV spectra and filtered images of the 777 nm atomic oxygen were compared with NEQAIR simulations, which were performed using flow field data from two-dimensional CFD simulations with two-temperature 11-species air chemistry utilising the in-house Navier-Stokes flow solver Eilmer3. Data extracted from consecutive frames of the filtered high speed images confirmed up to 8 s of available test time for the flow conditions tested. For the strongly radiating 149 and 174 nm atomic nitrogen lines, large disagreement between experimental data and NEQAIR predictions can be observed from the start of the expansion fan where the electron-ion recombination process commences. The spatial extent, or spans of the radiance profiles of the 149 and 174 nm N lines are significantly underpredicted by NEQAIR, and are very close to those of N, N+ and electron number density profiles, which follow that of flow density. The electron-ion recombination process is proposed as the main reason for these discrepancies. The comparisons between NEQAIR simulations and filtered images of the 777 nm oxygen triplet show good agreement in the post-shock compression region and the start of the expansion fan for the 63.4 MJ/kg condition, but with up to a factor of three overprediction by NEQAIR further downstream, which is attributed to electron-impact excitation. Similar trends are found with the 75.4 MJ/kg condition, with reduced level of agreement in the compression region, which can be due to uncertainties in inflow condition.

expansion tube↗
NASA NTRS2017

Experimental and Numerical Investigation of Air Radiation in Superorbital Expanding Flow

To investigate air radiation in expanding flows and provide experimental data for validating associated computational models, experiments were conducted in the X2 expansion tunnel facility at the Centre for Hypersonics of the University of Queensland. A 54 turning angle wedge model was employed to generate steady expanding flows with in flow total enthalpies of 50.7, 63.4 and 75.4 MJkg. VUV spectra from 118 to 180 nm were acquired across the wedge at three equispaced distances away from the top of the model, as well as through its top surface. High speed filtered images were also obtained by coupling a Shimadzu 1 MHz high speed camera to a bandpass filter to obtain calibrated images of the 777 nm oxygen triplet. Both the across-wedge VUV spectra and filtered images of the 777 nm atomic oxygen were compared with NEQAIR simulations, which were performed using flow field data from two-dimensional CFD simulations with two-temperature 11-species air chemistry utilizing the in-house Navier-Stokes flow solver Eilmer3. Data extracted from consecutive frames of the filtered high speed images confirmed up to 8 s of available test time for the flow conditions tested. For the strongly radiating 149 and 174 nm atomic nitrogen lines, large disagreement between experimental data and NEQAIR predictions can be observed from the start of the expansion fan where the electron-ion recombination process commences. The spatial extent, or spans of the radiance profiles of the 149 and 174 nm N lines are significantly under predicted by NEQAIR, and are very close to those of N, N+ and electron number density profiles, which follow that of flow density. The electron-ion recombination process is proposed as the main reason for these discrepancies. The comparisons between NEQAIR simulations and filtered images of the 777 nm oxygen triplet show good agreement in the post-shock compression region and the start of the expansion fan for the 63.4 MJkg condition, but with up to a factor of three over prediction by NEQAIR further downstream, which is attributed to electron-impact excitation. Similar trends are found with the 75.4 MJkg condition, with reduced level of agreement in the compression region, which can be due to uncertainties in inflow condition.

Earth entry↗