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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Improved ELMv1-ECA simulations of zero-curtain periods and cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions at Alaskan Arctic tundra sites

Field measurements have shown that cold-season methane (CH 4 ) and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions contribute a substantial portion to the annual net carbon emissions in permafrost regions. However, most earth system land models do not accurately reproduce cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions, especially over the shoulder (i.e., thawing and freezing) seasons. Here we use the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) land model version 1 (ELMv1-ECA) to tackle this challenge and fill the knowledge gap of how cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions contribute to the annual totals at Alaska Arctic tundra sites. Specifically, we improved the ELMv1-ECA soil water phase-change scheme, environmental controls on microbial activity, and the methane module. Results demonstrate that both soil temperature and the duration of zero-curtain periods (i.e., the fall period when soil temperatures linger around 0°C) simulated by the updated ELMv1-ECA were greatly improved; e.g., the mean absolute error (MAE) in zero-curtain durations at 12 cm depth was reduced by 62 % on average. Furthermore, the MAEs of simulated cold-season carbon emissions at three tundra sites were improved by 72 % and 70 % on average for CH 4 and CO 2 , respectively. Overall, CH 4 emitted during the early cold season (September and October), which often includes most of the zero-curtain period in Arctic tundra, accounted for more than 50 % of the total emissions throughout the entire cold season (September to May) in the model, compared with around 49.4 % (43 %–58 %) in observations. From 1950 to 2017, both CO 2 emissions during the zero-curtain period and during the entire cold season showed increasing trends, for example, of 0.17 and 0.36 gC m -2 yr -1 at Atqasuk. This study highlights the importance of zero-curtain periods in facilitating cold-season CH 4 and CO 2 emissions from tundra ecosystems.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Floods and Heavy Precipitation at the Global Scale: 100‐Year Analysis and 180‐Year Reconstruction

Floods and heavy precipitation have disruptive impacts worldwide, but their historical variability remains only partially understood at the global scale. This article aims at reducing this knowledge gap by jointly analyzing seasonal maxima of streamflow and precipitation at more than 3,000 stations over a 100‐year period. The analysis is based on Hidden Climate Indices (HCIs). Like standard climate indices (e.g., Nino 3.4, NAO), HCIs are used as covariates explaining the temporal variability of data, but unlike them, HCIs are estimated from the data. In this work, a distinction is made between common HCIs, that affect both heavy precipitation and floods, and specific HCIs, that exclusively affect one or the other. Overall, HCIs do not show noticeable autocorrelation, but some are affected by noticeable trends. In particular, strong and wide‐ranging trends are identified in precipitation‐specific HCIs, while trends affecting flood‐specific HCIs are weaker and have more localized effects. A probabilistic model is then derived to link HCIs and large‐scale atmospheric variables (pressure, wind, temperature) and to reconstruct HCIs since 1836 using the 20CRv3 reanalysis. In turn this allows estimating the probability of occurrence of floods and heavy precipitation at the global scale. This 180‐year reconstruction highlights flood hot‐spots and hot‐moments in the distant past, well before the establishment of perennial monitoring networks. Finally, the approach presented in this study is generic and paves the way for an improved characterization of historical variability by making a better use of long but highly irregular station data sets.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Historical Subsurface Cooling in the Tropical Pacific and Its Dynamics

Abstract Understanding how the tropical Pacific responds to rising greenhouse gases in recent decades is of paramount importance given its central role in global climate systems. Extensive research has explored the long-term trends of tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures (SSTs) and the overlying atmosphere, yet the historical change in the upper ocean has received far less attention. Here, we present compelling evidence of a prominent subsurface cooling pattern along the thermocline in the central-to-eastern tropical Pacific since 1958. This subsurface cooling has been argued to be contributing to the observed cooling or lack of warming of the equatorial cold tongue SST. We further demonstrate that different mechanisms are responsible for different parts of the subsurface cooling. In the central-to-eastern equatorial Pacific and the southeastern off-equatorial Pacific, where zonal wind stress strengthens, a pronounced subsurface cooling trend emerges just above the thermocline that is closely tied to increased Ekman pumping. In the eastern equatorial Pacific where zonal wind stress weakens, the westward surface current and eastward Equatorial Undercurrent weaken as well, resulting in reduced vertical current shear and increased ocean stability, which suppresses vertical mixing and leads to local cooling. We conclude that the historical subsurface cooling is primarily linked to dynamical adjustments of ocean currents to tropical surface wind stress changes.

Jiang, Feng↗
DOE OSTI2021

Core-flood Effluent and Shale Surface Chemistries in Predicting Interaction between Shale, Brine, and Reactive Fluid

We report field and laboratory observations to date indicate that the efficiency of hydraulic fracturing, as it relates to hydrocarbon recovery, depends significantly on geochemical alterations to rock surfaces that diminish accessibility by partial or total plugging of the pore and fracture networks. This is caused by mineral scale deposition such as coating of fracture surfaces with precipitates, particle migration, and/or crack closure due to dissolution under stress. In reactive flow-through experiments, mineral reactions in response to acidic fluid injection significantly reduced system porosity and core permeability. The present study focuses on changes to fluid chemistry and shale surfaces (inlet and fracture walls) resulting from shale-fluid interactions and integrating these findings for an improved estimate of transport-related consequences. The reacted shale surfaces were examined by spatially-resolved scanning electron microscopy - energy dispersive spectroscopy (SEM-EDS) analysis. Importantly, inductively coupled plasma - mass spectrometry/optical emission spectroscopy (ICP-MS/OES) was utilized to probe the chemical evolution of the core-flood effluents. The three study cores selected from the Marcellus formation represent different mineralogies and structural features. In flow-through experiments, lab-generated brine and HCl-based fracture fluid (pH=2) were injected sequentially under effective stress (up to 500 psi) at reservoir temperature (80°C). SEM-EDS results confirmed by the ICP concentration trends showed significant Fe hydroxide precipitates in clay- and pyrite-rich outcrop samples due to partial oxidation of Fe-bearing phases in the case of intrusion of low salinity water-based fluids. Porosity reduction in the MSEEL (Marcellus Shale Energy and Environmental Laboratory) carbonate-rich sample is related to compaction of cores under stress due to matrix softening with substantial dissolution, and pore-filling by hydroxides, as well as barite and salts. Despite the same fluid compositions and experimental conditions used for both MSEEL samples, barite precipitation was much more intense in the MSEEL clay-rich sample due to its greater sorption capacity and additional sulfate source as well as fissile nature with multiple lengthwise cracks. ICP tests revealed time-resolved concentration trends in produced brine and reactive fluids that in turn complemented the pre-/post-reaction SEM-EDS observations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2023

A series of cation-modified robust zirconium-based metal–organic frameworks for carbon dioxide capture

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) represent one of the most promising porous solids for possible use as sorbents to control and reduce the greenhouse gas emission. Studies have shown that open metal sites (OMS) interact strongly with carbon dioxide and thus, serve as efficient binding sites for CO 2 capture. However, many OMS-bearing MOFs are lack of framework stability and often have high regeneration temperature. To seek ways to solve the stability issue, we designed a series of isoreticular MOFs, Zr-tcpb-COOM (M = alkali/alkaline earth metal), by exchange of protons with metal ions on Zr-tcpb-COOH via post-synthetic modification (PSM). The pristine MOF (Zr-tcpb-COOH) has a very robust framework. The PSM process does not deteriorate the framework stability but creates metal binding sites that form strong bonds with carbon dioxide. The results show that at low CO 2 pressure, the uptake amount is enhanced considerably using Zr-tcpb-COOM and is in trend of increasing atomic number (Li + < Na + < K + < Ca 2+ ). High adsorption selectivity (CO 2 /N 2 IAST selectivity (15 : 85) = 539.5) is also achieved for CO 2 over N 2 at room temperature. This approach offers a feasible method to improve CO 2 capture capacity, especially at low concentrations.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

Machine Learning Vacancy Formation Energy in Nickel-Based Superalloys

Thermal vacancies play a critical role in high-temperature Ni-based superalloys and influence various properties such as creep resistance, oxidation, etc. This study systematically investigates the impact of commonly used transition metals (Cr, Co, Fe), refractory metals (Nb, Ta, Mo, W) and other elements (Al, Cu, Ti, Mn) on the thermodynamic stability of 36 binary, 20 ternary, 11 quaternary, 9 quinary, and 3 senary FCC Ni-based alloys covering various elemental combinations. Density functional theory-based studies on Ni-X binary alloys show that higher concentrations of Cr, Nb, Ta, Al, and Ti introduce significant lattice distortions and broaden the distribution of vacancy formation energies (standard deviation up to 0.15 eV). These elements partially donate electrons, reducing their self-consistent chemical potentials relative to single-element reference values and lowering vacancy formation energies, while Co, Fe, Mo, and W show lower charge localization. These trends extend from 3-6 element alloys, where Cr, Nb, and Ta-rich compositions have low-energy states (~0.5 eV) that increase vacancy concentrations. Finally, graph neural network models are developed to screen over 5000 virtual alloys. Eleven leading compositions are identified with mean vacancy formation energy higher than 1.75 eV and vacancy concentration ~2 orders of magnitude lower than pure Ni at 1000 K. These results provide valuable guidelines to achieve controlled defect engineering in structural alloys.

DFT↗
DOE OSTI2022

Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations of NaCl, UCl 3 molten salts

Ab initio molecular dynamics (AIMD) simulations are used to calculate select thermophysical and thermodynamic properties of NaCl, UCl and NaCl-UCl 3 molten salts. Following established approaches, the AIMD simulations include a model for Van der Waals interactions. The Langreth & Lundqvist (vDW-DF2), DFT-D3, and density-dependent energy correction (DFT-dDsC) dispersion models are first tested for molten NaCl in order to assess their accuracy for density and heat capacity predictions across a range of temperatures. Based on the NaCl results, the vdW-DF2 and DFT-dDsC methods are extended to the UCl 3 system and compared to available experimental data. Next, mixtures of NaCl-UCl 3 are investigated and analyzed with respect to the deviation from ideal solution behavior. For the DFT-dDsC simulations, density deviates by up to 2% from an ideal mixture, with the maximum occurring close to the eutectic composition. The mixing energy also deviates from an ideal solution and exhibits a minimum of about -0.074 to eV per formula unit, again close to the eutectic composition. Finally, the compressibility and species diffusivity of the pure and mixed salt systems are calculated. The diffusivities are slightly reduced in the mixed compared to the pure systems and the compressibilities loosely follow a linear correlation as a function of the UCl 3 composition. The trends observed for mixing properties are rationalized by correlating them to the coordination chemistry, which emphasizes the importance of maintaining the extended network formed by U and Cl ions as the NaCl concentration increases. The concentration at which breakdown of the extended network occurs, roughly coincides with the minimum of both the mixing energy and the deviation from ideal solution behavior for density.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased photosynthesis during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems

Abstract Drought is often thought to reduce ecosystem photosynthesis. However, theory suggests there is potential for increased photosynthesis during meteorological drought, especially in energy-limited ecosystems. Here, we examine the response of photosynthesis (gross primary productivity, GPP) to meteorological drought across the water-energy limitation spectrum. We find a consistent increase in eddy covariance GPP during spring drought in energy-limited ecosystems (83% of the energy-limited sites). Half of spring GPP sensitivity to precipitation was predicted solely from the wetness index (R 2 = 0.47, p < 0.001), with weaker relationships in summer and fall. Our results suggest GPP increases during spring drought for 55% of vegetated Northern Hemisphere lands ( >30° N). We then compare these results to terrestrial biosphere model outputs and remote sensing products. In contrast to trends detected in eddy covariance data, model mean GPP always declined under spring precipitation deficits after controlling for air temperature and light availability. While remote sensing products captured the observed negative spring GPP sensitivity in energy-limited ecosystems, terrestrial biosphere models proved insufficiently sensitive to spring precipitation deficits.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Role of Internal Variability in Springtime Arctic Amplification from 1980 to 2022

Arctic amplification (AA) refers to the enhanced warming of the Arctic relative to the global average due to rising greenhouse gases, measured as the ratio of Arctic-mean to global-mean surface air temperature (SAT) trends. From 1980 to 2022, annual-mean AA reached 4.2 (Arctic defined as north of 70°N). Climate models simulate AA but fail to reproduce its magnitude. Sweeney et al. attributed much of this model–observation discrepancy to internal variability. AA shows seasonality and so does the discrepancy. Spring (March–May) shows the largest gap: Observed AA is 4.2, while the multimodel mean is 2.7. This raises several questions: 1) What role does internal variability play in observed spring AA? 2) How does simulated spring AA compare to observations when internal variability is removed? 3) If internal variability is significant, what mechanisms drive it? To address these, we adapted the machine learning algorithm from Sweeney et al., training on simulated multidecadal spring SAT and sea level pressure (SLP) trend maps. Our results show that internal variability enhanced spring Arctic warming by 37% and reduced global warming by 10%. Removing internal variability reconciles the spring AA discrepancy. The estimated internal contribution to Arctic spring warming is supported by an independent dynamical adjustment approach. We identify an atmospheric circulation pattern in observations associated with this internal warming. Observed internal Siberian SAT and SLP trends follow the simulated SAT–SLP relationship but lie at the distribution’s extreme, suggesting models generally underestimate internal variability unless the observed configuration reflects a rare real-world realization.

Arctic↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quality and Loss Factor Characterization of YBCO Superconducting Transmission Lines for Axion Dark Matter Detection

Axion haloscope experiments aim to detect the conversion of axions into microwave photons under a strong magnetic field through resonant cavity techniques. The conversion produces an extremely small signal, requiring a cryogenic environment to reduce thermal noise, and low-loss superconducting transmission lines for minimal attenuation in the readout chain. Yttrium barium copper oxide (YBCO) cables are a promising candidate. Unlike commonly used low-loss cryogenic cables such as niobium (Nb) and niobium titanium (NbTi), which have low critical fields, YBCO is a high-temperature superconductor that can remain stable in strong magnetic fields. We characterized the quality and loss of five stripline resonators from the Brookhaven Technology Group: three YBCO, a copper reference, and a silver reference. Experimental methodology included collecting scattering parameter data on a vector network analyzer for the samples at 77 K along with room temperature baseline measurements, and employing both Lorentzian-fit and circle-fitting techniques to confirm the coupling regime and corroborate results. We achieved quality factors on the order of $10^3$ with corresponding loss factors on the order of $10^{-1}$ dB/m. Trends were comparable with literature data on Nb and NbTi at 4 K, which did have lower loss under these conditions, but suggested similar or perhaps better loss for YBCO when accounting for the temperature difference. We also developed a cryogenic probe for future measurements in a 14 T applied field at 30 mK. This will serve to directly evaluate YBCO's durability in magnetic fields, and we expect significantly improved performance at millikelvin temperatures.

Marinos, Z. [UCLA]↗
DOE OSTI2023

Warming of the Willamette River, 1850–present: the effects of climate change and river system alterations

Abstract. Using archival research methods, we recovered and combined data from multiple sources to produce a unique, 140-year record of daily water temperature (Tw) in the lower Willamette River, Oregon (1881–1890, 1941–present). Additional daily weather and river flow records from the 1850s onwards are used to develop and validate a statistical regression model of Tw for 1850–2020. The model simulates the time-lagged response of Tw to air temperature and river flow and is calibrated for three distinct time periods: the late 19th, mid-20th, and early 21st centuries. Results show that Tw has trended upwards at 1.1 ∘C per century since the mid-19th century, with the largest shift in January and February (1.3 ∘C per century) and the smallest in May and June (∼ 0.8 ∘C per century). The duration that the river exceeds the ecologically important threshold of 20 ∘C has increased by about 20 d since the 1800s, to about 60 d yr−1. Moreover, cold-water days below 2 ∘C have virtually disappeared, and the river no longer freezes. Since 1900, changes are primarily correlated with increases in air temperature (Tw increase of 0.81 ± 0.25 ∘C) but also occur due to alterations in the river system such as depth increases from reservoirs (0.34 ± 0.12 ∘C). Managed release of water affects Tw seasonally, with an average reduction of up to 0.56 ∘C estimated for September. River system changes have decreased variability (σ) in daily minimum Tw by 0.44 ∘C, increased thermal memory, reduced interannual variability, and reduced the response to short-term meteorological forcing (e.g., heat waves). These changes fundamentally alter the response of Tw to climate change, posing additional stressors on fauna.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Controlling Selective C–O and C–H Bond Scission of Methanol by Supporting Pt on TiN and Mo 2 N Model Surfaces and Powder Catalysts

Transition metal nitrides (TMNs) have been explored as effective supports for Pt due to their Pt-like electronic properties. However, there is a lack of fundamental understanding regarding the behavior of Pt on different TMNs (Pt/TMN). Herein two TMNs, Mo 2 N and TiN, were modified with Pt and compared using methanol decomposition as a probe reaction via both ultrahigh vacuum (UHV) studies on thin films and ambient-pressure batch reactor studies of powder catalysts. Temperature-programmed desorption (TPD) and high-resolution electron energy loss spectroscopy (HREELS) measurements were conducted under UHV conditions with Mo 2 N and TiN thin films. Mo 2 N was shown to favor C–H bond scission to form CO with a 56.2% selectivity, while TiN favored C–O bond scission to form CH 4 with a 74.5% selectivity. The addition of 0.9 monolayers (MLs) of Pt increased C–H bond scission selectivity to 89.7% and 49.2% for Mo 2 N and TiN respectively. Density functional theory (DFT) calculations on model surfaces revealed that the binding energy of O (BE *O ) was significantly reduced on Pt/TMNs, from −4.02 eV on Mo 2 N to −1.31 eV on Pt/Mo 2 N and −4.74 eV on TiN to −1.37 eV on Pt/TiN. As a result, C–O bond scission pathways were suppressed, leading to the preferential C–H bond scission that was observed experimentally. The C–O and C–H bond scission trends observed on thin films were then extended to powder catalysts, which demonstrated similar trends toward methanol decomposition. In conclusion, results from the current study establish that by combining UHV studies and DFT calculations over model surfaces, one can effectively predict the catalytic behavior of realistic TMN powder catalysts.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2019

Where old meets new: An ecosystem study of methanogenesis in a reflooded agricultural peatland

Reflooding formerly drained peatlands has been proposed as a means to reduce losses of organic matter and sequester soil carbon for climate change mitigation, but a renewal of high methane emissions has been reported for these ecosystems, offsetting mitigation potential. Our ability to interpret observed methane fluxes in reflooded peatlands and make predictions about future flux trends is limited due to a lack of detailed studies of methanogenic processes. In this study we investigate methanogenesis in a reflooded agricultural peatland in the Sacramento Delta, California. Furthermore, we use the stable-and radio-carbon isotopic signatures of wetland sediment methane, ecosystem-scale eddy covariance flux observations, and laboratory incubation experiments, to identify which carbon sources and methanogenic production pathways fuel methanogenesis and how these processes are affected by vegetation and seasonality. We found that the old peat contribution to annual methane emissions was large (~30%) compared to intact wetlands, indicating a biogeochemical legacy of drainage. However, fresh carbon and the acetoclastic pathway still accounted for the majority of methanogenesis throughout the year. Although temperature sensitivities for bulk peat methanogenesis were similar between open-water (Q 10 = 2.1) and vegetated (Q 10 = 2.3) soils, methane production from both fresh and old carbon sources showed pronounced seasonality in vegetated zones. We conclude that high methane emissions in restored wetlands constitute a biogeochemical trade-off with contemporary carbon uptake, given that methane efflux is fueled primarily by fresh carbon inputs.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Plant-Soil Relationships Influence Observed Trends Between Manganese and Carbon Across Biomes

Manganese (Mn) is an essential plant micronutrient that plays a critical role in the litter decomposition by oxidizing and degrading complex organic molecules. Previous studies report a negative correlation between Mn concentrations and carbon (C) storage in organic horizons and suggest that high Mn concentrations in leaf litter reduce soil C storage in forest ecosystems, presumably by stimulating the oxidation of lignin by fungal enzymes. Yet, the relationship between Mn and C in the litter layer and organic soil remains poorly understood and restricted to a few biomes, hampering our ability to improve mechanistic understanding of soil C accumulation. Here, to examine plant-soil interactions that underlie observed relationships between Mn and C across a wide range of biomes, we extracted biogeochemical data reported for plants and soils from the National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) database. We found that increased C and nitrogen (N) storage in organic horizons were associated with declines in Mn concentrations across diverse ecosystems at the continental scale, and this relationship was associated with the degree of organic matter decomposition (i.e., O i , O e , and O a ). Carbon and N stocks were more strongly correlated with Mn than with climatic variables (i.e., temperature and precipitation). Foliar Mn was strongly correlated with foliar lignin, and both these parameters increased with a decrease in soil pH, indicating links between soil pH, foliar chemistry, and litter decomposability. Our observations suggest that increased Mn bioavailability and accumulation in foliage under moderately acidic soil conditions support fungal decomposition of lignin-rich litter and contributes to lower soil C stocks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Molecular tail chemistry controls thermal transport in fullerene films

Herein we report on the thermal conductivities of alkyl- and indene-group functionalized fullerene derivative thin films as measured via time domain thermoreflectance and steady state thermoreflectance. The thermal conductivities vary from 0.064 ± 0.007 W m – 1 K – 1 for [6,6]-phenyl C 61 -butyric acid methyl ester (PCBM) to 0.15 ± 0.017 W m – 1 K – 1 for indene- C 60 bisadduct at room temperature and do not exhibit significant temperature dependence from 300 to 375 K. In comparison to the thermal conductivity of PCBM, increasing the length of the alkyl chain, as in the case of [6,6]-phenyl C 61 -butyric acid butyl ester, and [6,6]-phenyl C 61 -butyric acid octyl ester leads to higher thermal conductivities. Likewise, increasing the number of alkyl chains attached to the fullerenes as in the case of bisadduct PCBM leads to a higher thermal conductivity compared to that of PCBM. We present atomistic insights into the role of chemical functionalization on the overall heat transfer in these fullerene derivatives by conducting molecular dynamics simulations and lattice dynamics calculations. The thermal conductivities predicted via our atomistic simulations qualitatively agree with the experimental trends for our fullerene derivatives. Lattice dynamics calculations reveal that one of the main factors dictating the ultralow thermal conductivities in fullerene derivatives is the large reduction in modal diffusivities in the molecular crystals as calculated from the Allen-Feldman model, thus providing an explanation for their largely reduced thermal conductivities as compared to that of C 60 crystals. The low diffusivities result from high degrees of localization of Einstein-like vibrations in fullerene derivatives due to the molecular side chains, providing the ability to dial-in the properties of these low thermal conductivity solids via molecular engineering.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Changing windstorm characteristics over the US Northeast in a single model large ensemble

Abstract Extreme windstorms pose a significant hazard to infrastructure and public safety, particularly in the highly populated US Northeast (NE). However, the influence climate change and changing land use will have on these events remains unclear. A large ensemble generated using the Max-Planck Institute (MPI) Earth system model is used to generate projections of NE windstorms under different shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) and to attribute changes to projected land use land cover (LULC) change, externally forced changes and internal climate variability. To reduce the influence of coarse grid cell resolution and uncertainties in surface roughness lengths, windstorms are identified using simultaneous widespread exceedance of local 99th percentile 10 m wind speeds (U 99 ). Projected declines in forest cover in the NE and the resulting reductions in surface roughness length under SSP3-7.0 lead to projections of large increases in U 99 and derived windstorm intensity and scale. However, these projected changes in regional LULC under SSP3-7.0 are unprecedented in a historical context and may not be realistic. After corrections are applied to remove the influence of LULC on wind speeds, regionally averaged U 99 exhibit declines for most of the single model initial-condition large ensemble (SMILE) members which are broadly proportional to the radiative forcing and global air temperature increase in the SSPs, with a median value of −0.15 ms −1 °C −1 . While weak cyclones are projected to decline in frequency in the NE, intense cyclones and the resulting windstorms and indices of socioeconomic loss do not. Where present, significant trends in these loss indices are positive, and some MPI SMILE members generate future windstorms that are unprecedented in the historical period.

Coburn, Jacob (ORCID:0000000309538117)↗
DOE OSTI2021

Anthropogenic–biogenic interaction amplifies warming from emission reduction over the southeastern US

A decline of surface biogenic secondary organic aerosols through the mediation of reduced anthropogenic aerosols has been recognized as an air quality co-benefit of anthropogenic emission control over the southeastern US. However, the climate impacts of this anthropogenic–biogenic interaction remain poorly understood. Here, we identified a substantial decline of summertime aerosol loading aloft over the southeastern US in recent decades through the interaction, which leads to a stronger decline in column-integrated aerosol optical depth and a greater increase in radiative fluxes over the southeastern than northeastern US, different from trends of anthropogenic emissions and near-surface aerosol loading. The anthropogenic–biogenic interaction is shown to explain more than 60% of the coherent increasing trend of 5.3 Wm -2 decade -1 in clear-sky surface downward radiative fluxes. We show that current climate models fail to represent this interaction. The interaction is further projected to amplify the positive radiative forcing from emission control by 42.3% regionally over the southeastern US and globally by 5.4% in 2050 under RCP4.5 compared to 2005. This amplification effect implies greater challenges to achieving the Paris Agreement temperature targets with continuous emission control in future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Comparison of spherical harmonics method and discrete ordinates method for radiative transfer in a turbulent jet flame

Here, in this study, we systematically compared the accuracy and computational cost of two popular solution methods for the radiative transfer equation (RTE): the spherical harmonics method (P N ) and the discrete ordinates method (DOM). We first investigated convergence characteristics of different orders of P N and DOM in a series of 1D homogeneous configurations with varying optical thicknesses. Both solvers perform better for optically thicker cases. The accuracy of P N methods increases with its order, , but the gain in accuracy reduces with the increase in , i.e., improvement of P 7 over P 5 is less than that of P 3 over P 1 . This decreasing trend becomes more prominent as the optical thickness decreases. On the other hand, DOM’s accuracy increases almost linearly with the increase in the number of ordinates (or polar angles in this study) in all cases. While comparing the directional profile of radiative intensity, both solvers perform better when the radiative intensity is more isotropic. These solvers were then connected with a full spectrum k-distribution (FSK) spectral model and used to perform radiation-coupled simulations of a turbulent jet flame in an axi-symmetric cylindrical domain. Results obtained from P 1 to P 7 approximations for P N , and 2 x 4, 4 x 4, 4 x 8, 8 x 8 finite angles for DOM are compared with that from an optically thin model, and a reference solution from line-by-line (LBL) photon Monte Carlo (PMC) method. The choice of radiation solver shows a noticeable impact on the temperature distribution of the flame. The P N solvers lead to slightly higher radiant fractions and the DOM solvers lead to slightly lower radiant fractions than the PMC benchmark solution. Finally, the computational costs of each of these solvers are also reported and an intermittent evaluation / time blending scheme to improve the computational efficiency of radiation solvers in radiation-coupled simulations are also demonstrated.

42 ENGINEERING↗