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NASA NTRS2008

Use of VIIRS DNB Data to Monitor Power Outages and Restoration for Significant Weather Events

NASA fs Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) project operates from NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, Alabama. The team provides unique satellite data to the National Weather Service (NWS) and other agencies and organizations for weather analysis. While much of its work is focused on improving short-term weather forecasting, the SPoRT team supported damage assessment and response to Hurricane Superstorm Sandy by providing imagery that highlighted regions without power. The team used data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi NPP) satellite. The VIIRS low-light sensor, known as the day-night-band (DNB), can detect nighttime light from wildfires, urban and rural communities, and other human activity which emits light. It can also detect moonlight reflected from clouds and surface features. Using real time VIIRS data collected by our collaborative partner at the Space Science and Engineering Center of the University of Wisconsin, the SPoRT team created composite imagery to help detect power outages and restoration. This blackout imagery allowed emergency response teams from a variety of agencies to better plan and marshal resources for recovery efforts. The blackout product identified large-scale outages, offering a comprehensive perspective beyond a patchwork GIS mapping of outages that utility companies provide based on customer complaints. To support the relief efforts, the team provided its imagery to the USGS data portal, which the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) and other agencies used in their relief efforts. The team fs product helped FEMA, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, and U.S. Army monitor regions without power as part of their disaster response activities. Disaster responders used the images to identify possible outages and effectively distribute relief resources. An enhanced product is being developed and integrated into a web mapping service (WMS) for dissemination and use by a broader end user community.

Jedlovec, Gary↗

NASA NTRS1994

Dynamical and observational constraints on satellites in the inner Pluto-Charon system

It is not known if Pluto has other satellites besides its massive partner Charon. In the past, searches for additional satellites in the Pluto-Charon system have extended from the solar-tidal stability boundary (approximately 90 arcsec from Pluto) inward to about 1 arcsec from Pluto. Here we further explore the inner (i.e., less than 10 arcsec) region of the Pluto-Charon system to determine where additional satellites might lie. In particular, we report on (1) dynamical simulations to delineate the region where unstable orbits lie around Charon, (2) dynamical simulations which use the low orbital eccentricity of Charon to constrain the mass of any third body near Pluto, and (3) analysis of Hubble Space Telescope (HST) archival images to search for satellites in the inner Pluto-Charon system. Although no objects were found, significant new constraints on bodies orbiting in the inner Pluto-Charon system were obtained.

Stern, S. Alan↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Virtual International Satellite Training Experiences for Weather, Marine, Climate, and Environmental Applications

Since January 2020, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, its Cooperative Institutes, and international partners provided over 15,000 hours of virtual satellite focused on user engagement. The training provides and guides users to analyze a large variety of satellite data for weather, climate, and environmental applications and decision support. The training team reached users in over 50 countries via monthly Regional Focus Group and special topic sessions, World Meteorological Organization Regional Association III and IV Workshops, and American Meteorological Society Short Courses. The training sessions were offered in both English and Spanish covering such themes as GOES-R, JPSS and other satellite capabilities, data access using GEONET Cast, data display, and user applications. The training also emphasized the operational application of satellite observations for cross-disciplinary topics like heavy rain and hail events, aviation hazards, fire and smoke detection, volcanic eruptions and ash monitoring, climate indices, monitoring coral reef health, and in tsunami preparedness. The presentation will highlight the methods used and challenges posed by the various training approaches and future modifications to adapt to the virtual environment during training sessions planned for the next year.

Satellite Training↗

NASA NTRS2021

Bhutan Water Resources III: Analyzing Forest Disturbances and Climate Data in Bhutan to Create a Tool for Assisting the Himalayan Environment Rhythm Observation and Evaluation Systems (HEROES) Project

Forest disturbances from bark beetle outbreaks are a major concern in Bhutan, known to cause extensive tree mortality to pine and spruce forests. The NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the Ugyen Wangchuck Institute of Conservation and Environmental Research (UWICER), the Bhutan Foundation, and the Karuna Foundation to assess forest changes for the districts of Bumthang and Haa from 2000 to 2018. The project used preprocessed meteorological data from the Climate Hazards Center Infrared Precipitation with Station (CHIRPS) and Famine Early Warning System Network Land Data Assimilation System (FLDAS), along with Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM), Landsat 7 Enhanced Thematic Mapper plus (ETM+), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) to assess apparent forest disturbance occurrences and observed climate trends. Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) was used to resolve variations in elevation and slope for mountainous regions. Using the Google Earth Engine LandTrendr (LT) code algorithm, along with Landsat data, the team developed an app called Forest Disturbances Detection Toolbox (FDDT) to assess forest changes in Bhutan. The app includes climate variables for the focus districts, along with LT variables, which allows the end users to further examine the cause of disturbances. The team compared geocoordinates for known disturbances with LT disturbance detection products. Although additional work is needed in the future to validate the project end products from the FDDT, the tool will be provided to the project partners to aid forest management efforts in Bhutan.

Tashi Choden↗

NASA NTRS2003

Scout Missions and Future Exploration of the Martian Poles

NASA's Mars Exploration Program, (MEP) complemented by missions in operation by ESA and the Japanese space agency, is revolutionizing the study of Mars as a planet and potential home for life, past, present or future. Within the MEP there are a number of significant opportunities for the study of the Mars polar regions--from the ongoing Mars Global Surveyor and Odyssey missions, the upcoming Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter, and the soon-to-be-defined Mars Science Laboratory. As an internal complement to the Mars missions being developed by JPL for the MEP, Mars Scout investigations can provide substantial future opportunities to study the polar regions of Mars. These relatively small, PI-led missions provide substantial flexibility within the overall MEP, providing the capability to respond to scientific targets of opportunity in Mars science, with special-interest small missions, or to be developed to respond to instrument opportunities for missions developed by international partners.

McBride, K. S.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Designing A Lunar Terrain Vehicle: Thermal Challenges

The Lunar Terrain Vehicle (LTV) is an unpressurized rover that will be used to transport astronauts on the South Pole of the moon under the Artemis Program. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) will be partnering with an American industry partner to develop the LTV. This paper discusses the thermal challenges faced when designing a crewed lunar vehicle concept and shares a concept that addresses these constraints. One of the most difficult aspects of the design is surviving the cold lunar night on the South Pole which includes permanently shadowed regions (PSR) that can have an extended lunar night duration of 125 hours. Other challenges are critical component temperature limits and programmatic constraints.

Zaida Y. Hernandez↗

NASA NTRS2023

Aconcagua Basin Agriculture: Analyzing Hydrological Norms, Evapotranspiration, and Soil Moisture to Assess Crop Water Demand and Water Usage in Chile’s Aconcagua River Basin

The Aconcagua basin has experienced a prolonged drought since 2010, posing a significant concern to the agricultural sector, which contributes to 12% of the national agriculture output. Reduced precipitation and warmer conditions have led to water constraints for agricultural activities. As the agriculture sector relies more on irrigation, there has been a decline in surface water availability and a shrinking groundwater supply, both primarily sourced from snow and glacial melt. This study focuses on evaluating crop water demand and water usage in the Aconcagua Basin, leveraging in-situ and available satellite data from Aqua and Terra Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), 1-km downscaled Soil Moisture Active Passive (SMAP), Global Precipitation Measurement Mission IMERG (GPM), and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI). Remote sensing hydrologic norms from pre- and intra-drought conditions provided a baseline for our water use analysis. We have identified areas of the basin where water usage is exaggerated compared to other regions by analyzing soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and vegetation index trends across agricultural lands. The study highlights the presence of irrigation and exaggerated water usage categorized by crop type while normalizing the data by the quantity of water allocation (m3/s) to each subregion. The findings have the potential to assist our partners, the Centro de Información de Recursos Naturales (CIREN) and the Ministry of Agriculture, in refining water allocation approaches; showcasing the feasibility of leveraging remote sensing and earth observation datasets to monitor agricultural practices within the context of water scarcity.

Remote sensing↗

NASA NTRS1993

Models of the Cartwheel ring galaxy: Spokes and starbursts

Recent observations of this famous ring galaxy, including optical and near-infrared CCD surface photometry, and VLA radio continuum and 21 cm line mapping (Higdon 1992b, in prep.), have inspired a renewed modeling effort. Toomre's (1978, in The Large-scale Structure of the Universe, eds. Longair and Einasto) series of restricted three-body simulations demonstrated how the multiple rings could be produced in a nearly head-on galaxy collision. New models with a halo-dominated potential based on the 21 cm rotation curve are able to reproduce such details as the spacing between rings, ring widths, offset of the nucleus, and several kinematical features, thus providing strong support for the collisional theory. The new observations have shown there are little or no old stars in Cartwheel; it may consist almost entirely of gas and stars produced as a result of compression in the ring wave. To model this process Smooth Particle Hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations of the Cartwheel disk have been performed. Fixed gravitational potentials were used to represent the Cartwheel and a roughly 30 percent mass collision partner. The interaction dynamics was treated as in the usual restricted three-body approximation, and the effects of local self-gravity between disk particles were calculated. We are particularly interested in testing the theory that enhanced star formation in waves is the result of gravitational instability in the compressed region (see e.g. Kennicutt 1989, ApJ 344, 685). The gas surface density in a number of simulations was initialized to a value slightly below the threshold for local gravitational instability throughout most of the disk. The first ring wave produces relatively modest compressions (a factor of order a few), triggering instability in a narrow range of wavelengths. Self-gravity in the disk is calculated over a comparable range of scales. Simulations were run with isothermal, adiabatic, and adiabatic with radiative cooling characterized by a relatively short timescale. The isothermal approximation is good except in the vicinity of the strong second (inner) ring, and several snapshots from one case are shown in the figure below. Flocculent spiral segments are present before the collision, and these are compressed into dense knots in the ring wave. These knots are likely to be sites of vigorous star formation. In the strong rarefaction behind the outer ring most of the knots are radially stretched and sheared, giving rise to spoke-like features. A few dense knots are evidently very tightly bound, because they retain their coherence and are stretched relatively little through the rarefaction. This is in accord with evidence for continuing star formation in some spokes (Marcum, Appleton and Higdon 1992). The number and spacing of spokes is a direct function of the scale of the gravitational instability in the disk. Thus, the gravitational instability theory, together with the hypothesis that massive stars are only formed in dense knots of gas, can account for most of the distinct morphology of the Cartwheel.

Struck-Marcell, Curtis↗

NASA NTRS2008

The Global Sweep of Pollution: How You Think About a Problem Determines How You Will Respond

NASA is the preeminent source of data with synoptic coverage of the globe. NASA's budget for measuring attributes of the Earth is far larger than any other single organization. Satellites provide geophysical measurements such as radiance or emittance. These measurements can be used directly or can be used as input to numeric models, which in turn produce estimates of other parameters. In general the emphasis in NASA has been to use this capability to address basic science questions. The Agency is also required to apply these data and models to help improve lives and the economy. NASA's Applied Science Program has the mandate for directing and funding such applied work. The managers of the program have recognized the disciplines of air quality, pollution, atmospheric composition and public health are aspects of a single topic with local, regional, national and global implications. Significant effort is being made to bridge the disparate disciplines and deal with the multiple scales at NASA's Marshall Space Flight Center. A central portion of our strategic approach is to integrate our personnel with short-term (proposal) colleagues and with long-term, essentially permanent, partners. We consider such broad and inclusive viewpoints as important to making real, substantive differences in people's lives.

Rickman, D. L.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Flight Research Overview of WSPR, a Pilot Project for Sonic Boom Community Response

In support of the ongoing effort by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to bring supersonic commercial travel to the public, the NASA Armstrong Flight Research Center and the NASA Langley Research Center, in cooperation with other industry organizations, conducted a flight research experiment to identify the methods, tools, and best practices for a large-scale quiet (or low) sonic boom community human response test. The name of the effort was Waveforms and Sonic boom Perception and Response (WSPR). Such tests will be applied to building a dataset that governing agencies such as the Federal Aviation Administration and the International Civil Aviation Organization will use to establish regulations for acceptable sound levels of overland sonic booms. The WSPR test was the first such effort that studied responses to non-traditional low sonic booms while the subject persons were in their own homes and performing daily activities.The WSPR test was a NASA collaborative effort with several industry partners, in response to a NASA Aeronautics Research Mission Directorate Research Opportunities in Aeronautics. The primary contractor was Wyle (El Segundo, California). Other partners included Gulfstream Aerospace Corporation (Savannah, Georgia); Pennsylvania State University (University Park, Pennsylvania); Tetra Tech, Inc. (Pasadena, California); and Fidell Associates, Inc. (Woodland Hills, California).A major objective of the effort included exposing a community to the sonic boom magnitudes and occurrences that would be expected to occur in high-air traffic regions having a network of supersonic commercial aircraft in place. Low-level sonic booms designed to simulate those produced by the next generation of commercial supersonic aircraft were generated over a small residential community. The sonic boom footprint was recorded with an autonomous wireless microphone array that spanned the entire community. Human response data were collected using multiple survey methods. The research focused on essential elements of community response testing including subject recruitment, survey methods, instrumentation systems, flight planning and operations, and data analysis methods.This paper focuses on the NASA role in the logistics and operations of the effort, including human response subject recruitment, the operational processes involved in implementing the surveys throughout the community, instrumentation systems, logistics, flight planning, and flight operations. Findings discussed in this paper include critical lessons learned in all of the above-mentioned areas, as well as flight operations results. Analysis of the accuracy and repeatability of planning and executing the unique aircraft maneuver used to generate low sonic booms concluded that the sonic booms had overpressures within 0.15 lbft2 of the planned values for 76 percent of the attempts. Similarly, 90 percent of the attempts to generate low sonic booms within the community were successful.

community response↗

NASA NTRS2007

Use of AIRS, OMI, MLS, and TES Data in Assessing Forest Ecosystem Exposure to Ozone

Ground-level ozone at high levels poses health threats to exposed flora and fauna, including negative impacts to human health. While concern is common regarding depletion of ozone in the stratosphere, portions of the urban and rural United States periodically have high ambient levels of tropospheric ozone on the ground. Ozone pollution can cause a variety of impacts to susceptible vegetation (e.g., Ponderosa and Jeffrey pine species in the southwestern United States), such as stunted growth, alteration of growth form, needle or leaf chlorosis, and impaired ability to withstand drought-induced water stress. In addition, Southern Californian forests with high ozone exposures have been recently subject to multiyear droughts that have led to extensive forest overstory mortality from insect outbreaks and increased incidence of wildfires. Residual forests in these impacted areas may be more vulnerable to high ozone exposures and to other forest threats than ever before. NASA sensors collect a wealth of atmospheric data that have been used recently for mapping and monitoring regional tropospheric ozone levels. AIRS (Atmospheric Infrared Sounder), OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument), MLS (Microwave Limb Sounder), and TES (Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer) data could be used to assess forest ecosystem exposure to ozone. Such NASA data hold promise for providing better or at least complementary synoptic information on ground-level ozone levels that Federal agency partners can use to assess forest health trends and to mitigate the threats as needed in compliance with Federal laws and mandates. NASA data products on ozone concentrations may be able to aid applications of DSTs (decision support tools) adopted by the USDA FS (U.S. Department of Agriculture Forest Service) and by the NPS (National Park Service), such as the Ozone Calculator, in which ground ozone estimates are employed to assess ozone impacts to forested vegetation.

Spruce, Joseph P.↗

NASA NTRS2010

NASA, Remote Sensing and Archaeology: An Example from Southeast Louisiana

NASA Stennis Space Center, located in Mississippi, USA, undertook an archaeological survey of the southeastern Louisiana marshes beginning in 2003. Progress on this activity was severely hampered by the 2005 hurricane season when both Katrina and Rita devastated the study area. In 2008, the NASA team reinitiated the analysis of the project data and that work continues today. The project was conducted initially in partnership with the U.S. Army, Corps of Engineers New Orleans District and Tulane University. NASA and its partners utilized a wide variety of satellite and airborne remote sensing instruments combined with field verification surveys to identify prehistoric archeological sites in the Southeastern Louisiana delta, both known and still undiscovered. The main approach was to carefully map known sites and use the spectral characteristics of these sites to locate high probability targets elsewhere in the region. The archaeological activities were conducted in support of Coast 2050 whose stated goals is to sustain and restore a coastal ecosystem that supports and protects the environment, economy and culture of southern Louisiana. As the Coast 2050 report states: [T]he rate of coastal land loss in Louisiana has reached catastrophic proportions. Within the last 50 years, land loss rates have exceeded 40 square miles per year, and in the 1990's the rate has been estimated to be between 25 and 35 square miles each year. This loss represents 80% of the coastal wetland loss in the entire continental United States.

Giardino, Marco J.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Validating and Improving Long-Term Aerosol Data Records from SeaWiFS

Natural and anthropogenic aerosols influence the radiative balance of the Earth through direct and indirect interactions with incoming solar radiation. However, the quantification of these interactions and their ultimate effect on the Earth's climate still have large uncertainties. This is partly due to the limitations of current satellite data records which include short satellite lifetimes, retrieval algorithm uncertainty, or insufficient calibration accuracy. We have taken the first steps in overcoming this hurdle with the production and public release of an aerosol data record using the radiances from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-View Sensor (Sea WiFS). Sea WiFS was launched in late 1997 and provided exceptionally well-calibrated top-of-atmosphere radiance data until December 2010, more than 13 years. We have partnered this data with an expanded Deep Blue aerosol retrieval algorithm. In accordance with Deep Blue's original focus, the latest algorithm retrieves aerosol properties not only over bright desert surfaces, but also over oceans and vegetated surfaces. With this combination of a long time series and global algorithm, we can finally identify the changing patterns of regional aerosol loading and provide insight into longterm variability and trends of aerosols on regional and global scales. In this work, we provide an introduction to Sea WiFS, the current algorithms, and our aerosol data records. We have validated the data over land and ocean with ground measurements from the Aerosol Robotic Network (AERONET) and compared them with other satellites such as MODIS and MISR. Looking ahead to the next data release, we will also provide details on the implemented and planned algorithm improvements, and subsequent validation results.

Bettenhausen, Corey↗

NASA NTRS2020

Cambridge Urban Development - Quantifying Changes in Urban Albedo with NASA Earth Observations to Reduce Urban Heat Island Effect in Cambridge, Massachusetts

The urban heat island (UHI) effect occurs when urban areas have temperatures that are warmer on average than the surrounding suburban and rural regions. Low albedo surfaces traditionally found in urban landscapes, such as dark asphalt and rooftops, absorb solar irradiance and reemit heat, which contributes to the UHI effect. Cambridge,Massachusetts,part of the Boston metropolitan area,expects severe impacts on human health,infrastructure, and local environmental features due to increasing urban heat. The Massachusetts – Boston NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the City of Cambridge Community Development Department and the American Geophysical Union’s Thriving Earth Exchange to inform ongoing planning and heat mitigation efforts. High Resolution Orthoimagery (HRO) and National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) scenes were analyzed in conjunction with ancillary datasets to assess changes in rooftop albedo between 2008 and 2018. Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used to determine nighttime land surface temperature (LST) between 2003 and 2019. Lastly, temperature anomalies were calculated using seasonally averaged nighttime LST values obtained from Aqua MODIS to display ‘hot spots’ for summers between 2004 and 2019. On average, albedo increased by 0.12 across the city, with the majority of positive change in commercial areas. Analysis of mean summer nighttime LST between 2003 and 2019 revealed a non-significant increase in temperature, although temperature anomaly maps demonstrated that Cambridge was warmer on average than rural areas. These results were incorporated in the interactive Cambridge Urban Heat Dashboard, which allows users to explore temporal trends in albedo.

Nicole Ramberg-Pihl↗

NASA NTRS2020

Cambridge Urban Development: Quantifying Changes in Urban Albedo with NASA Earth Observations to Reduce Urban Heat Island Effect in Cambridge, Massachusetts

The urban heat island (UHI) effect occurs when urban areas have temperatures that are warmer on average than the surrounding suburban and rural regions. Low albedo surfaces traditionally found in urban landscapes, such as dark asphalt and rooftops, absorb solar irradiance and reemit heat, which contributes to the UHI effect. Cambridge, Massachusetts, part of the Boston metropolitan area, expects severe impacts on human health, infrastructure, and local environmental features due to increasing urban heat. The Massachusetts – Boston NASA DEVELOP team partnered with the City of Cambridge Community Development Department and the American Geophysical Union’s Thriving Earth Exchange to inform ongoing planning and heat mitigation efforts. High Resolution Orthoimagery (HRO) and National Agriculture Imagery Program (NAIP) scenes were analyzed in conjunction with ancillary datasets to assess changes in rooftop albedo between 2008 and 2018. Aqua Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) data were used to determine nighttime land surface temperature (LST) between 2003 and 2019. Lastly, temperature anomalies were calculated using seasonally averaged nighttime LST values obtained from Aqua MODIS to display ‘hot spots’ for summers between 2004 and 2019. On average, albedo increased by 0.12 across the city, with the majority of positive change in commercial areas. Analysis of mean summer nighttime LST between 2003 and 2019 revealed a non-significant increase in temperature, although temperature anomaly maps demonstrated that Cambridge was warmer on average than rural areas. These results were incorporated in the interactive Cambridge Urban Heat Dashboard, which allows users to explore temporal trends in albedo.

Nicole Ramberg-Pihl↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Employing NASA Earth Observations and Socioeconomic Data to Conduct Site Suitability Analyses on Residential Tree Planting Initiatives in Phoenix, Arizona

Phoenix, Arizona is the hottest large city in the United States with an average summer daytime temperature of 106°F. Temperatures in Phoenix continue to climb due to increasing global greenhouse gas concentrations and regional urbanization. The impacts of high temperatures, including heat-related illnesses and deaths, are disproportionately concentrated in low-income neighborhoods often characterized by little tree canopy, lack of green space, and insufficient access to shade. The City of Phoenix’s Office of Heat Response and Mitigation and Arizona State University’s Urban Climate Research Center, partnered with NASA DEVELOP to identify residential neighborhoods and parcels within qualified census tracts (QCTs) to be prioritized for tree planting initiatives using funding from the American Rescue Plan Act (ARPA). This project conducted analyses using NASA Earth observations, socioeconomic data from the 2019 American Community Survey, and local tree canopy and mobility data. For Earth observations, daytime land surface temperature, vegetation, and land cover were obtained from the Landsat 8 Thermal Infrared Sensor (TIRS) and Operational Land Imager (OLI). The project team incorporated these data into a heat vulnerability index (HVI) with an emphasis on tree canopy and social vulnerability to rank block groups within QCTs and focused on the resulting top 25 block group HVI scores. These top 25 most vulnerable block groups were then processed through a parcel analysis to determine the feasibility of residential tree planting based on building footprints on each parcel. Within the top 25 block groups, 2,411 parcels were analyzed, and 3,133 existing trees were identified averaging 1.3 trees per parcel with 90% of parcels having 3 trees or less. Homes with 2 trees or fewer were considered high priority for future planting efforts. Based on the City’s goals for increased tree canopy the project team determined that <10,000 additional trees would need to be planted within the most vulnerable 25 block groups. The project findings have helped initiate community engagement efforts and have contributed to the approval of tree planting funds in Phoenix.

Ryan Hammock↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mark Twain National Forest Ecological Forecasting - Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Classify Ground Cover Types in the Mark Twain National Forest

The Mark Twain National Forest (MTNF) encompasses 1.5 million acres of public land in the Ozarks region of southeastern Missouri. The industrial boom between the 1880s and 1920s had devastating effects on the shortleaf pine (Pinus echinata),Missouri’s only native pine species. The combination of fire suppression on this fire-dependent species and timber harvest of mature pine stands inhibited the development of pine seedlings and promoted the establishment of hardwood stands. Partners at the US Forest Service’s MTNF are currently involved in restoration efforts in two ranger districts, which includes removing invasive eastern red cedar (Juniperus virginiana) and prescribed burning. To expand spatial coverage for the MTNF beyond in situ observation sites, the NASA DEVELOP team analyzed land cover change from 1986 through 2019 and forecasted changes based on a ‘business-as-usual' scenario out to 2040. The team incorporated remotely sensed data from Landsat 5 Thematic Mapper (TM) and Landsat 8 Operational Land Imager (OLI) into the random trees supervised classification tool in ArcGIS Pro. This tool spectrally separated pixels into five distinct land cover classes and produced classifications for 1986 and 2019, with kappa statistics of 0.87 and 0.81, respectively. Overall, there was a net decrease in conifer and meadow land cover between 1986 and 2019 along with a net increase in water, developed, and deciduous land cover. The team used TerrSet’s Land Change Modeler to forecast land cover through 2040. Results showed an increase in coniferous land cover and a decrease in deciduous cover, indicating a high probability that current restoration efforts will produce the intended effect.

Kaitlyn Bretz↗

NASA NTRS2020

Mark Twain National Forest Ecological Forecasting: Utilizing NASA Earth Observations to Classify Ground Cover Types in the Mark Twain National Forest

DEVELOP Tech Paper↗