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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1999

A Synthesis of Solar Cycle Prediction Techniques

A number of techniques currently in use for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle timescale are tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g., regression and curve fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month-by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but only provide an estimate of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides a more accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This combined precursor method gives a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154 plus or minus 21 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum. A mathematical function dependent on the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude is used to describe the level of solar activity month by month for the next cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between previous activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast gives, as of January 1999, a smoothed sunspot maximum of 146 plus or minus 20 at the 95% level of confidence for the next cycle maximum.

Hathaway, David H.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Status of Cycle 23 Forecasts

A number of techniques for predicting solar activity on a solar cycle time scale are identified, described, and tested with historical data. Some techniques, e.g,, regression and curve-fitting, work well as solar activity approaches maximum and provide a month- by-month description of future activity, while others, e.g., geomagnetic precursors, work well near solar minimum but provide an estimate only of the amplitude of the cycle. A synthesis of different techniques is shown to provide a more accurate and useful forecast of solar cycle activity levels. A combination of two uncorrelated geomagnetic precursor techniques provides the most accurate prediction for the amplitude of a solar activity cycle at a time well before activity minimum. This precursor method gave a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 154+21 for cycle 23. A mathematical function dependent upon the time of cycle initiation and the cycle amplitude then describes the level of solar activity for the complete cycle. As the time of cycle maximum approaches a better estimate of the cycle activity is obtained by including the fit between recent activity levels and this function. This Combined Solar Cycle Activity Forecast now gives a smoothed sunspot maximum of 140+20 for cycle 23. The success of the geomagnetic precursors in predicting future solar activity suggests that solar magnetic phenomena at latitudes above the sunspot activity belts are linked to solar activity, which occurs many years later in the lower latitudes.

Hathaway, D. H.↗
NASA NTRS2000

Influence of central set on anticipatory and triggered grip-force adjustments

The effects of predictability of load magnitude on anticipatory and triggered grip-force adjustments were studied as nine normal subjects used a precision grip to lift, hold, and replace an instrumented test object. Experience with a predictable stimulus has been shown to enhance magnitude scaling of triggered postural responses to different amplitudes of perturbations. However, this phenomenon, known as a central-set effect, has not been tested systematically for grip-force responses in the hand. In our study, predictability was manipulated by applying load perturbations of different magnitudes to the test object under conditions in which the upcoming load magnitude was presented repeatedly or under conditions in which the load magnitudes were presented randomly, each with two different pre-load grip conditions (unconstrained and constrained). In constrained conditions, initial grip forces were maintained near the minimum level necessary to prevent pre-loaded object slippage, while in unconstrained conditions, no initial grip force restrictions were imposed. The effect of predictable (blocked) and unpredictable (random) load presentations on scaling of anticipatory and triggered grip responses was tested by comparing the slopes of linear regressions between the imposed load and grip response magnitude. Anticipatory and triggered grip force responses were scaled to load magnitude in all conditions. However, regardless of pre-load grip force constraint, the gains (slopes) of grip responses relative to load magnitudes were greater when the magnitude of the upcoming load was predictable than when the load increase was unpredictable. In addition, a central-set effect was evidenced by the fewer number of drop trials in the predictable relative to unpredictable load conditions. Pre-load grip forces showed the greatest set effects. However, grip responses showed larger set effects, based on prediction, when pre-load grip force was constrained to lower levels. These results suggest that anticipatory processes pertaining to load magnitude permit the response gain of both voluntary and triggered rapid grip force adjustments to be set, at least partially, prior to perturbation onset. Comparison of anticipatory set effects for reactive torque and lower extremity EMG postural responses triggered by surface translation perturbations suggests a more general rule governing anticipatory processes.

Non-NASA Center↗
NASA NTRS2008

On the Period-Amplitude and Amplitude-Period Relationships

Examined are Period-Amplitude and Amplitude-Period relationships based on the cyclic behavior of the 12-month moving averages of monthly mean sunspot numbers for cycles 0.23, both in terms of Fisher's exact tests for 2x2 contingency tables and linear regression analyses. Concerning the Period-Amplitude relationship (same cycle), because cycle 23's maximum amplitude is known to be 120.8, the inferred regressions (90-percent prediction intervals) suggest that its period will be 131 +/- 24 months (using all cycles) or 131 +/- 18 months (ignoring cycles 2 and 4, which have the extremes of period, 108 and 164 months, respectively). Because cycle 23 has already persisted for 142 months (May 1996 through February 2008), based on the latter prediction, it should end before September 2008. Concerning the Amplitude-Period relationship (following cycle maximum amplitude versus preceding cycle period), because cycle 23's period is known to be at least 142 months, the inferred regressions (90-percent prediction intervals) suggest that cycle 24's maximum amplitude will be about less than or equal to 96.1 +/- 55.0 (using all cycle pairs) or less than or equal to 91.0 +/- 36.7 (ignoring statistical outlier cycle pairs). Hence, cycle 24's maximum amplitude is expected to be less than 151, perhaps even less than 128, unless cycle pair 23/24 proves to be a statistical outlier.

Wilson, Robert M.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Application of Temperature Sensitivities During Iterative Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Analysis

A new method is discussed that may be used to correct wind tunnel strain-gage balance load predictions for the influence of residual temperature effects at the location of the strain-gages. The method was designed for the iterative analysis technique that is used in the aerospace testing community to predict balance loads from strain-gage outputs during a wind tunnel test. The new method implicitly applies temperature corrections to the gage outputs during the load iteration process. Therefore, it can use uncorrected gage outputs directly as input for the load calculations. The new method is applied in several steps. First, balance calibration data is analyzed in the usual manner assuming that the balance temperature was kept constant during the calibration. Then, the temperature difference relative to the calibration temperature is introduced as a new independent variable for each strain--gage output. Therefore, sensors must exist near the strain--gages so that the required temperature differences can be measured during the wind tunnel test. In addition, the format of the regression coefficient matrix needs to be extended so that it can support the new independent variables. In the next step, the extended regression coefficient matrix of the original calibration data is modified by using the manufacturer specified temperature sensitivity of each strain--gage as the regression coefficient of the corresponding temperature difference variable. Finally, the modified regression coefficient matrix is converted to a data reduction matrix that the iterative analysis technique needs for the calculation of balance loads. Original calibration data and modified check load data of NASA's MC60D balance are used to illustrate the new method.

Ulbrich, N.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Comparison of two numerical techniques for aerodynamic model identification

An algorithm, called the Minimal Residual QR algorithm, is presented to solve subset regression problems. It is shown that this scheme can be used as a numerically reliable implementation of the stepwise regression technique, which is widely used to identify an aerodynamic model from flight test data. This capability as well as the numerical superiority of this scheme over the stepwise regression technique is demonstrated in an experimental simulation study.

Verhaegen, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Comparison of two numerical techniques for aerodynamic model identification

A new algorithm, called the Minimal Residual QR algorithm, is presented to solve subset regression problems. It is shown that this new scheme can be used as a numerically reliable implementation of the stepwise regression technique, which is widely used to identify an aerodynamic model from flight test data. This capability as well as the numerical superiority of this scheme over the stepwise regression technique is demonstrated in an experimental simulation study.

Verhaegen, M. H.↗
NASA NTRS1990

Framework for a space shuttle main engine health monitoring system

A framework developed for a health management system (HMS) which is directed at improving the safety of operation of the Space Shuttle Main Engine (SSME) is summarized. An emphasis was placed on near term technology through requirements to use existing SSME instrumentation and to demonstrate the HMS during SSME ground tests within five years. The HMS framework was developed through an analysis of SSME failure modes, fault detection algorithms, sensor technologies, and hardware architectures. A key feature of the HMS framework design is that a clear path from the ground test system to a flight HMS was maintained. Fault detection techniques based on time series, nonlinear regression, and clustering algorithms were developed and demonstrated on data from SSME ground test failures. The fault detection algorithms exhibited 100 percent detection of faults, had an extremely low false alarm rate, and were robust to sensor loss. These algorithms were incorporated into a hierarchical decision making strategy for overall assessment of SSME health. A preliminary design for a hardware architecture capable of supporting real time operation of the HMS functions was developed. Utilizing modular, commercial off-the-shelf components produced a reliable low cost design with the flexibility to incorporate advances in algorithm and sensor technology as they become available.

Hawman, Michael W.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Laboratory Headphone Studies of Human Response to Low-Amplitude Sonic Booms and Rattle Heard Indoors

Human response to sonic booms heard indoors is affected by the generation of contact-induced rattle noise. The annoyance caused by sonic boom-induced rattle noise was studied in a series of psychoacoustics tests. Stimuli were divided into three categories and presented in three different studies: isolated rattles at the same calculated Perceived Level (PL), sonic booms combined with rattles with the mixed sound at a single PL, and sonic booms combined with rattles with the mixed sound at three different PL. Subjects listened to sounds over headphones and were asked to report their annoyance. Annoyance to different rattles was shown to vary significantly according to rattle object size. In addition, the combination of low-amplitude sonic booms and rattles can be more annoying than the sonic boom alone. Correlations and regression analyses for the combined sonic boom and rattle sounds identified the Moore and Glasberg Stationary Loudness (MGSL) metric as a primary predictor of annoyance for the tested sounds. Multiple linear regression models were developed to describe annoyance to the tested sounds, and simplifications for applicability to a wider range of sounds are presented.

Loubeau, Alexandra↗
NASA NTRS2010

Demonstration of a Fiber Optic Regression Probe

The capability to provide localized, real-time monitoring of material regression rates in various applications has the potential to provide a new stream of data for development testing of various components and systems, as well as serving as a monitoring tool in flight applications. These applications include, but are not limited to, the regression of a combusting solid fuel surface, the ablation of the throat in a chemical rocket or the heat shield of an aeroshell, and the monitoring of erosion in long-life plasma thrusters. The rate of regression in the first application is very fast, while the second and third are increasingly slower. A recent fundamental sensor development effort has led to a novel regression, erosion, and ablation sensor technology (REAST). The REAST sensor allows for measurement of real-time surface erosion rates at a discrete surface location. The sensor is optical, using two different, co-located fiber-optics to perform the regression measurement. The disparate optical transmission properties of the two fiber-optics makes it possible to measure the regression rate by monitoring the relative light attenuation through the fibers. As the fibers regress along with the parent material in which they are embedded, the relative light intensities through the two fibers changes, providing a measure of the regression rate. The optical nature of the system makes it relatively easy to use in a variety of harsh, high temperature environments, and it is also unaffected by the presence of electric and magnetic fields. In addition, the sensor could be used to perform optical spectroscopy on the light emitted by a process and collected by fibers, giving localized measurements of various properties. The capability to perform an in-situ measurement of material regression rates is useful in addressing a variety of physical issues in various applications. An in-situ measurement allows for real-time data regarding the erosion rates, providing a quick method for empirically anchoring any analysis geared towards lifetime qualification. Erosion rate data over an operating envelope could also be useful in the modeling detailed physical processes. The sensor has been embedded in many regressing media for the purposes of proof-of-concept testing. A gross demonstration of its capabilities was performed using a sanding wheel to remove layers of metal. A longer-term demonstration measurement involved the placement of the sensor in a brake pad, monitoring the removal of pad material associated with the normal wear-and-tear of driving. It was used to measure the regression rates of the combustable media in small model rocket motors and road flares. Finally, a test was performed using a sand blaster to remove small amounts of material at a time. This test was aimed at demonstrating the unit's present resolution, and is compared with laser profilometry data obtained simultaneously. At the lowest resolution levels, this unit should be useful in locally quantifying the erosion rates of the channel walls in plasma thrusters. .

Korman, Valentin↗
NASA NTRS2014

Mechanisms of Orthostatic Tolerance Improvement Following Artificial Gravity Exposure Differ Between Men and Women

We recently determined that a short exposure to artificial gravity (AG) improved the orthostatic tolerance limit (OTL) of cardiovascularly deconditioned subjects. We now seek to determine the mechanisms of that improvement in these hypovolemic men and women. Methods. We determined the orthostatic tolerance limit (OTL) of 9 men and 8 women following a 90 min exposure to AG compared to 90 min of head down bed rest (HDBR). In both cases (21 days apart), subjects were made hypovolemic (low salt diet plus 20 mg intravenous furosemide). Orthostatic tolerance was determined from a combination of head up tilt and increasing lower body negative pressure until presyncope. Mean values and correlations with OTL were determined for heart rate, blood pressure, stroke volume, cardiac output and peripheral resistance (Finometer), cerebral artery blood velocity (DWL), partial pressure of carbon dioxide (Novametrics) and body segmental impedance (UFI THRIM) were measured during supine baseline, during OTL to presyncope and during supine recovery Results. Orthostatic tolerance of these hypovolemic subjects was significantly greater on the day of AG exposure than on the HDBR day. Regression of OTL on these variables identified significant relationships on the HDBR day that were not evident on the AG day: resting TPR correlated positively while resting cerebral flow correlated negatively with OTL. On both days, women's resting stroke volume correlated positively with orthostatic tolerance. Higher group mean values of stroke volume and cerebral artery flow and lower values of blood pressure, peripheral vascular and cerebrovascular resistance both at control and during OTL testing were observed on the AG day. Even though regression of OTL on resting stroke volume was significant only in women, presyncopal stroke volume reached the same level on each day of study for both men and women while the OTL test lasted 30% longer in men and 22% longer in women. Cerebral artery flow appeared to follow stroke volume and absolute values of cerebral flow did not correlate with the development of presyncope. Women responded to AG exposure with elevated cerebral flow at resting control and throughout the OTL test, implying a loss of autoregulation in deconditioned (hypovolemic) women following AG exposure. Conclusions. Before countermeasures to space flight cardiovascular deconditioning are established, gender differences in cardiovascular responses to orthostatic stress, in general, and to orthostatic stress following exposure to artificial gravity, in particular, need to be determined. Since, in both men and women, a single, acute bout of AG exposure improved orthostatic tolerance, the feasibility of short exposures to AG during longer spaceflights or prior to entry into a gravity (Earth or Mars) environment, should be explored. Given the known beneficial effects of AG on other organ systems, the present study indicates that the positive effects of AG on cardiac stroke volume make AG a likely candidate for maintaining cardiovascular conditioning.

Evans, J. M.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Hybrid rocket combustion study

The objectives of this study of 'pure' or 'classic' hybrids are to (1) extend our understanding of the boundary layer combustion process and the critical engineering parameters that define this process, (2) develop an up-to-date hybrid fuel combustion model, and (3) apply the model to correlate the regression rate and scaling properties of potential fuel candidates. Tests were carried out with a hybrid slab window motor, using several diagnostic techniques, over a range of motor pressure and oxidizer mass flux conditions. The results basically confirmed turbulent boundary layer heat and mass transfer as the rate limiting process for hybrid fuel decomposition and combustion. The measured fuel regression rates showed good agreement with the analytical model predictions. The results of model scaling calculations to Shuttle SRM size conditions are presented.

Strand, L. D.↗
NASA NTRS2001

The Behavior of TCP and Its Extensions in Space

The performance of Transmission Control Protocol (TCP) in space has been examined from the observations of simulation and experimental tests for several years at National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), Department of Defense (DoD) and universities. At New Mexico State University (NMSU), we have been concentrating on studying the performance of two protocol suites: the file transfer protocol (ftp) running over Transmission Control Protocol/Internet Protocol (TCP/IP) stack and the file protocol (fp) running over the Space Communications Protocol Standards (SCPS)-Transport Protocol (TP) developed under the Consultative Committee for Space Data Systems (CCSDS) standards process. SCPS-TP is considered to be TCP's extensions for space communications. This dissertation experimentally studies the behavior of TCP and SCPS-TP by running the protocol suites over both the Space-to-Ground Link Simulator (SGLS) test-bed and realistic satellite link. The study concentrates on comparing protocol behavior by plotting the averaged file transfer times for different experimental configurations and analyzing them using Statistical Analysis System (SAS) based procedures. The effects of different link delays and various Bit-Error-Rates (BERS) on each protocol performance are also studied and linear regression models are built for experiments over SGLS test-bed to reflect the relationships between the file transfer time and various transmission conditions.

Wang, Ruhai↗
NASA NTRS1992

Analysis of the lettuce data from the variable pressure growth chamber at NASA Johnson Space Center: A three-stage nested design model

A model of three-stage nested experimental design was applied to analyze the lettuce data obtained from the variable pressure growth chamber test bed at NASA-Johnson Space Center. From the results of an application of the analysis of variance and covariance on the data set, it was noted that all of the (uncontrollable) factors, Side, Zone, Height and (controllable) PAR (photosynthetically active radiation), had nonhomogeneous effects on the dry weight of the edible biomass of lettuce per pot. Incidentally, the variations accountable to the (uncontrollable) factorial heterogeneities are merely 9 percent and 17 percent of the total variation for both the first and second crop test, respectively. After adjusting for the PAR as a covariate in the no-intercept model, the accountable variations to all the four factors are 94 percent and 92 percent for the first and the second crop test, respectively. With the use of a no-intercept simple linear regression model, the accountable variations to the factor PAR are 92 percent and 90 percent for the first and the second crop test, respectively. Evidently, the (controllable) factor PAR is the dominating one.

Lee, Tze-San↗
NASA NTRS2012

Formulation, Casting, and Evaluation of Paraffin-Based Solid Fuels Containing Energetic and Novel Additives for Hybrid Rockets

This investigation studied the inclusion of various additives to paraffin wax for use in a hybrid rocket motor. Some of the paraffin-based fuels were doped with various percentages of LiAlH4 (up to 10%). Addition of LiAlH4 at 10% was found to increase regression rates between 7 - 10% over baseline paraffin through tests in a gaseous oxygen hybrid rocket motor. Mass burn rates for paraffin grains with 10% LiAlH4 were also higher than those of the baseline paraffin. RDX was also cast into a paraffin sample via a novel casting process which involved dissolving RDX into dimethylformamide (DMF) solvent and then drawing a vacuum on the mixture of paraffin and RDX/DMF in order to evaporate out the DMF. It was found that although all DMF was removed, the process was not conducive to generating small RDX particles. The slow boiling generated an inhomogeneous mixture of paraffin and RDX. It is likely that superheating the DMF to cause rapid boiling would likely reduce RDX particle sizes. In addition to paraffin/LiAlH4 grains, multi-walled carbon nanotubes (MWNT) were cast in paraffin for testing in a hybrid rocket motor, and assorted samples containing a range of MWNT percentages in paraffin were imaged using SEM. The fuel samples showed good distribution of MWNT in the paraffin matrix, but the MWNT were often agglomerated, indicating that a change to the sonication and mixing processes were required to achieve better uniformity and debundled MWNT. Fuel grains with MWNT fuel grains had slightly lower regression rate, likely due to the increased thermal conductivity to the fuel subsurface, reducing the burning surface temperature.

Larson, Daniel B.↗
NASA NTRS1993

X-31 aerodynamic characteristics determined from flight data

The lateral aerodynamic characteristics of the X-31 were determined at angles of attack ranging from 20 to 45 deg. Estimates of the lateral stability and control parameters were obtained by applying two parameter estimation techniques, linear regression, and the extended Kalman filter to flight test data. An attempt to apply maximum likelihood to extract parameters from the flight data was also made but failed for the reasons presented. An overview of the System Identification process is given. The overview includes a listing of the more important properties of all three estimation techniques that were applied to the data. A comparison is given of results obtained from flight test data and wind tunnel data for four important lateral parameters. Finally, future research to be conducted in this area is discussed.

Kokolios, Alex↗