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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2019

Estimation of Behind-the-Meter Solar Generation by Integrating Physical with Statistical Models

Accurate estimation of solar photovoltaic (PV) generation is crucial for distribution grid control and optimization. Unfortunately, most of the residential solar PV installations are behind-the-meter. Thus, utilities only have access to the net load readings. This paper presents an unsupervised framework for estimating solar PV generation by disaggregating the net load readings. The proposed framework synergistically combines a physical PV system performance model with a statistical model for load estimation. Specifically, our algorithm iteratively estimates solar PV generation with a physical model and electric load with the Hidden Markov model regression. The proposed algorithm is also capable of estimating the key technical parameters of the solar PV systems. Our proposed method is validated against net load and solar PV generation data gathered from residential customers located in Austin, Texas. The validation results show that our method reduces mean squared error by 44% compared to the state-of-the-art disaggregation algorithm.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2023

Net Load Forecasting With Disaggregated Behind-the-Meter PV Generation

As worldwide use of residential photovoltaic (PV) systems grows, system operators and utilities will need to transition from forecasting pure demand to forecasting net load with behind-the-meter (BTM) PV generation. However, PV generation can be difficult to predict and the measurements of PV generation from BTM residential systems are often invisible behind a measurement of the net load, making net load forecasting challenging. This paper proposes a novel two-stage framework for net load forecasting in areas with limited observability and high BTM PV generation. First, the profiles of observable customers are used to disaggregate the net load measurements into the pure load and PV generation. Then, separate models are used to forecast the PV generation and pure load individually, and the results are combined for a net load forecast. Further, this paper also proposes a compensator for correcting the error of the net load forecast, using historical forecast errors of the PV generation, pure load, and net load. The proposed framework is tested through two case studies for areas with high BTM PV penetration and less than 10% observable customers. The two-stage forecasting model is compared to two benchmark methods - a time series forecasting model, and a model that forecasts the net load directly using historical net load measurements. Results show that the proposed disaggregation-forecasting framework reduces the error of the net load forecast compared to both benchmark models. In addition, when the net load forecast error is periodic, the compensator can correct the error to improve the forecast accuracy.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Machine learning surrogate of physics-based building-stock simulator for end-use load forecasting

Building energy models are used to simulate heat and mass transfer and estimate end-use load in buildings. With the proliferation of solar photovoltaics on residential and commercial buildings, increasingly, buildings are expected to provide grid services, for which accurate and computationally efficient building energy simulations and end-use load prediction are imperative. Existing building energy simulation tools, however, have significant computational overhead that make them less practical in real-time deployment for optimization, design, uncertainty quantification and control in building energy management systems. Here this article presents a data-driven machine learning model based on light gradient boosting method (LightGBM) as a surrogate for a physics-based simulator for residential buildings to predict end-use load. The machine learning based surrogate model accounts for time-series related variables, seasonality and trend component of end-use load, and history of end-use load. The accuracy of the surrogate model is assessed on the prediction of the load profiles of 100 different houses in Cook County, Illinois, USA. The LightGBM surrogate model is shown to reduce the root-mean-squared error by 53% relative to a reference decision tree (DT) based model reported previously in the literature. Moreover, the model predicts the load spikes and high-ramp rate events throughout the year which are often the Achilles heel of other models in the literature. The machine learning based surrogate model is demonstrated to be computationally efficient, with a ten-fold reduction in the computational time compared to a physics-based building energy simulation, and suitable for uncertainty analysis and real-time control of building characteristics in response to uncertainty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

End-Use Savings Shapes: Public Dataset Release for Residential Round 1 [Slides]

The End-Use Load Profiles project created a public database of 900,000 individual building end-use load profiles. Load profiles were modeled to represent the U.S. building stock as it was in 2018, as nearly as possible based on the best available data. The End-Use Savings Shapes follow-on project adds measure impact profiles for energy efficiency and electrification packages to the public dataset. This presentation details the public dataset release on September 20, 2022.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of phase change thermal storage in a cascade heat pump

Here this study proposes a low-global warming potential cascade heat pump system with integrated phase change material (PCM) for combined space heating and cooling. PCM is embedded in the intermediate heat exchanger that couples an outdoor R290 refrigerant circuit and an indoor CO 2 circuit. We used a clustering method to develop seasonally representative load and ambient temperature profiles for residential buildings in Minneapolis, Minnesota. We simulated the system peak shaving performance on the selected representative days, assuming three different PCM options including ice (0 °C), tetradecane (5.6 °C), and a commercially available PCM, SP9 (10.5 °C). The baseline was the same cascade system without thermal storage. We investigated the effect of both thermal energy storage capacity (kWh th ) and PCM transition temperature on system performance. The results show that higher thermal energy storage capacity shaves more electric energy until it reaches a maximum value set by the load characteristics of the building. SP9, with the highest transition temperature, shaves the most electric energy, while ice shaves the least. Moreover, ice has the highest charging cost, especially in the cooling season when the outdoor circuit has to operate at an evaporating temperature lower than 0 °C to make ice. Our results show that SP9 presents the lowest levelized cost of storage, closely followed by ice. A lower off-peak electricity rate benefits ice more than SP9 or tetradecane because ice has the largest charging cost penalty.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

End-Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock: Market Needs, Use Cases, and Data Gaps

This report serves as the first-year deliverable for a multiyear project that intends to produce a set of highly resolved electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs) of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2019

End Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock

End Use Load Profiles for the U.S. Building Stock is a multiyear project to produce a set of highly resolved electricity end-use load profiles (EULPs) of the U.S. residential and commercial building stock. The project team, made up of researchers from the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL), and Argonne National Laboratory, ultimately will use calibrated physics-based building energy models to create these EULPs. This presentation provides an overview of the project approach, status, goals, and challenges, and discusses what the project means for the Northeast region.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Machine Learning-Assisted Framework to Control Thermally Anisotropic Building Envelopes in Residential Buildings

To curb the energy consumption of buildings and their related CO2 emissions, Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) has developed the thermally anisotropic building envelope (TABE) —a multi-layer design comprising insulation materials and metal foils connected to thermal loops. In this study, a machine learning-assisted framework was developed to control the TABE in residential buildings to reduce the computation load for future optimal rule-based control and application. First, a 2D finite element model was established in COMSOL to calculate the hourly heat flux through exterior walls installed with the TABE. Then, TABE wall heat fluxes were simulated for various given indoor and outdoor boundary conditions, as well as thermal loops fluid temperatures and flow rates. Since the finite element simulations are computationally expensive, an artificial neural network (ANN) was then trained to use as a proxy of the finite element (COMSOL) modeling. Finally, the trained ANN model was coupled with the EnergyPlus model to predict the energy consumption of a US Department of Energy prototype single-family house installed with the TABE. An optimal simple rule-based control was determined from predefined rules for a case study. The results demonstrate that the developed machine learning–assisted framework can reduce 99.9% of the computation time while efficiently managing residential building energy for installed TABE walls.

Shen, Zhenglai↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combined Effects of Electric Vehicle Charging and Rooftop Solar Integration on Voltage Imbalance in Residential Distribution Networks

Residential electric vehicle (EV) chargers, as single phase loads, contribute to unbalanced voltage drops across phases, while rooftop solar systems, as single phase generators, can exacerbate voltage imbalance by causing unbalanced voltage increases. This paper investigates combined effects of residential EV charging and rooftop solar generation on voltage imbalance in residential distribution grids. The study examines these simultaneous impacts using the IEEE 8500-node test system, enhanced with a secondary network to realistically model the EV chargers and rooftop solar integration. To account for the variability and uncertainty in the EV charging loads and solar generation, a Monte Carlo approach is employed to capture and quantify the simultaneous impact of the EV charging and rooftop solar integration. In this approach, multiple influencing factors are considered, including state-of-charge (SOC), maximum charging power levels, and geographic distribution of chargers. The results provide practical insights for utilities and stakeholders, offering expectations for planning and operating strategies that effectively manage the increasing adoption of EVs and solar power while maintaining grid reliability.

Choi, Jongchan [ORNL] (ORCID:000000025952455X)↗
DOE OSTI2020

Interconnection of Three Single-Phase Feeders in North America Distribution Systems

This paper proposes a solution for maintaining power balance within all three phases at residential level during islanded mode of operation. Grid abnormalities can lead to isolating the residential microgrid from the main grid, and as a result, distributed generation (DG) units take the full responsibility of supplying local loads. However, in such condition, some phases might face the challenge of meeting local load demand due to the lack of enough power generation, resulting in voltage drop and frequency variation across household loads. In order to resolve this issue, the proposed method in this paper seamlessly interconnects all three single-phase feeders during islanded mode and forms a unified single-phase residential microgrid. Consequently, the load demands in all three phases are met, leading to enhanced voltage and frequency profiles. For this purpose, a seamless transition algorithm is defined which monitors the system condition in real time, and coordinates the operation of all inverter-based DG units in residential microgrid accordingly during transitions. Case study results are provided to verify the validity of proposed method.

Pilehvar, Mohsen S.↗
DOE OSTI2019

Window Attachments: The Next Big Energy-Savings Measure?

Windows in residential buildings are estimated to generate 29% of all HVAC heating and cooling load, approximately 2.67 quadrillion Btu (Apte and Arasteh 2006). Although more than a third of residential windows are single pane, very few utility programs offer incentives for installation of energy-efficient windows (Bickel et al. 2013). The reason is simple: unless someone is already planning to replace their windows, the payback can often take a decade, if not longer. Preliminary data indicates that some energy-efficient window attachments, such as low- emissivity (low-e) storm windows and interior panels, cellular shades, interior and exterior roller shades and shutters, window films, solar screens, window quilts, and awnings, can deliver cost-effective energy savings. Additionally, the means to reliably identify and compare energy-efficient window attachment products will soon be available through the Attachment Energy Rating Council (AERC), a public interest energy performance rating and certification organization co-funded by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) and the window attachment industry. This paper presents, for the first time, national and regional energy savings estimates for cellular shades and low-emissivity storm windows and panels using existing data on household energy savings potential. This paper is an early step in the process of determining the cost-effectiveness of window attachments for utility programs. The next step is for utilities to develop pilot programs to conduct field tests of these products, which will generate the energy savings data to determine if full-scale programs are cost-effective.

Bickel, Stephen↗
DOE OSTI2021

Operation and performance of VRF systems: Mining a large-scale dataset

The energy consumption of air-conditioning systems has gained increasing attention as it contributes significantly to the global building energy use. The variable refrigerant flow (VRF) system is a common air-conditioning system applied widely in residential and office buildings in China. Understanding the actual operation and performance of VRF systems is fundamental for the energy-efficient design and operation of VRF systems. Previous research on VRF system operation used either limited field data covering certain building types and climate zones or used a questionnaire to obtain a larger dataset. However, they did not capture the wide applications of VRF systems quantitatively across all building types, climate zones, and operating conditions. To fill this gap, statistical and clustering analysis was conducted on the newly proposed key performance indicators of approximately 287,000 VRF systems for residential and commercial buildings in all five climate zones in China. In this work, the main findings are: (1) VRF systems are mainly used for cooling in all climate zones in China; (2) among all building types, the duration of use is lowest in residential buildings and highest in hotels and medical buildings; (3) the distribution of the ideal VRF cooling coefficient of performance (COP) is similar across all climate zones and building types; whereas the COPs of ideal VRF heating in the Severe Cold region and Cold regions are lower than those in other climate zones; and (4) partial load operations for VRF systems are common in residential buildings and office buildings due to the part-time-part-space operation mode. These findings can inform the actual application of VRF systems in China, supporting the design, operation, industry standard development, and performance optimization of VRF systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

Nondimensional convection numbers modeling thermally stratified storage tanks: Richardson's number and hot-water tanks

Thermally stratified storage tank studies have spanned over 50 years to increase the thermal storage efficiency and accurate prediction of the outlet temperature particularly for solar applications. The studies have reviewed and modeled the jet and plume flow phenomena inside the tank due to the inlet mixing and stratification level. Kelvin–Helmholtz and Rayleigh–Taylor instabilities are the major drivers of the mixing in these tanks. Momentum jets deflecting off walls at the bottom of the tank also create significant mixing. Reviewing Richardson models shows that the categorization was based on the range of Reynolds numbers at the inlet. Unfortunately, the use of superficial velocity in calculating the Richardson number results in critical values in the literature ranging from below 0.25 to 100. The most used length scale associated with these flows is an inertial scale based on the tank height or diameter although the mixing can occur at a relatively smaller scale. The various inlet devices and a large span of flow rates experienced in thermally stratified storage tanks requisite the use of the Reynolds number in combination with a convection number for accurate one dimensional models that predict performance over the long-term. The evaluation of peak shifting of electric loads leveraging renewable sources for applications, including residential hot-water tanks, commercial water tanks, and large-scale chilled water storage tanks, require these models. Finally, this paper is focused on establishing the significance of the convection numbers in conjunction with the Reynolds number for modeling the thermal stratification in storage tanks.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

TEMPEST (Thermo-Electric Model for Powering Energy Storage Technologies)

NREL's TEMPEST model combines electrical and thermal modeling for residential-scale battery systems. The model and default parameters are based off of two common commercial residential batteries. Key inputs to the model include house load, temperature of the battery location, and the solar profile. The key output of the TEMPEST model is the battery profile and internal battery temperature. If internal battery temperature exceeds limits, a derating will occur and this will be reflected in the battery profile. In addition to thermal modeling, the TEMPEST model uses realistic operating principals that are common in today's residential batteries. Mainly, the TEMPEST model incorporates "modes" of operation that constrain battery setpoint based on house load, solar output, and state of charge. The TEMPEST model can be used to analyze the effect of battery temperature, deratings, and mode setpoints on utility network loading and customer bills.

Blonsky, Michael↗
DOE OSTI2022

Field Testing of a Hierarchical Model-Free Transactive Control Strategy in a Residential House

Demand response plays an important role in addressing the uncertain, intermittent, and variable nature of renewable energy sources. However, to be effective, it requires a significant amount of demand load flexibility, in which buildings are important flexible assets for electricity systems. In this regard, many transactive control tools have been developed to harness this demand flexibility. Yet, such tools are mostly simulation-based or deal with a single load, which may not be sufficient to demonstrate their effectiveness. Towards this end, this paper presents a field implementation and testing of a hierarchical model-free transactive control strategy using residential building thermostatically controlled loads. The transactive control implementation incorporates elements of virtual battery, game theory, and model-free control mechanisms. Experimental field-testing results are provided to demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed transactive control strategy.

Olama, Mohammed M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Heat Pumps and the Electrification of Heating

70 to 80% of building energy load in Alaska is heating. About 81% of residential heating is supplied via on-site combustion of fossil fuels. How can heat pumps provide heat energy from renewable sources?

Alaska↗
DOE OSTI2026

Estimating Flexibility Envelopes for Residential Customers From Utility Smart Meter Data: Preprint

Demand response from residential customers has significant potential to support power system operations, but accurate flexibility estimation is challenging due to the limited resolution of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) data. Most utility AMI measurements are recorded at hourly intervals, with only a small portion at higher resolutions, and even fewer households have appliance-level energy usage data. To address this issue, this paper proposes a two-stage long short-term memory (LSTM) framework for estimating household flexibility envelopes from low-resolution AMI data. In the first stage, the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) load and non-HVAC loads are estimated by using a model trained on a small set of households with appliance-level profiles. These estimated data are then used to compute the upper- and lower-flexibility bounds, which are subsequently down-sampled to lower-resolution data. In the second stage, these flexibility bounds serve as training inputs for another LSTM model, enabling direct prediction of flexibility envelopes for households with only hourly AMI data. This method is validated using Pecan Street data from two different areas, and the results demonstrate its applicability and effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Architecture of a Residential Solid State Power Substation (SSPS) Node

High integration rates of new loads and distributed generation at the edge of the grid are posing new challenges. However, existing smart power electronic systems are not designed to coordinate and maximize grid support or provide multiple grid services simultaneously. This work presents the application of a solid-state power substation (SSPS) to residential systems to increase this coordination and reduce future challenges. The proposed residential SSPS is validated in simulation including power electronic converter models, feeder models, and optimization.

Krishna Moorthy, Radha↗