Models and Analysis of Fuel Switching Generation Impacts on Power System Resilience.
Abstract not provided.
Wilches Bernal, Felipe↗
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Presentation: Models and Analysis of Fuel Switching Generation Impacts on Power System Resilience.
Abstract not provided.
Wilches Bernal, Felipe↗
Space transportation architecture: Reliability sensitivities
A sensitivity analysis is given of the benefits and drawbacks associated with a proposed Earth to orbit vehicle architecture. The architecture represents a fleet of six vehicles (two existing, four proposed) that would be responsible for performing various missions as mandated by NASA and the U.S. Air Force. Each vehicle has a prescribed flight rate per year for a period of 31 years. By exposing this fleet of vehicles to a probabilistic environment where the fleet experiences failures, downtimes, setbacks, etc., the analysis involves determining the resiliency and costs associated with the fleet of specific vehicle/subsystem reliabilities. The resources required were actual observed data on the failures and downtimes associated with existing vehicles, data based on engineering judgement for proposed vehicles, and the development of a sensitivity analysis program.
Williams, A. M.↗
Residential Vehicle-to-Home Backup Power Capabilities: Key Findings from a ComEd Beneficial Electrification R&D Pilot
This report summarizes key findings from a collaborative technical study of residential, non-grid-tied vehicle-to-home (V2H) backup power systems in Commonwealth Edison’s (ComEd’s) service territory. The work integrates (1) a feeder-level technoeconomic analysis (TEA) using historical outage-event data and simulated electric-vehicle (EV) driving/charging profiles to estimate potential reliability and customer interruption-cost impacts under V2H and vehicle-to-grid (V2G) adoption scenarios; (2) controlled laboratory performance testing of a representative V2H backup ecosystem to characterize transfer-to-backup behavior, sustained power delivery, efficiency trends, and repeatable reliability limitations; and (3) a cybersecurity assessment aligned with NIST Cybersecurity Framework (CSF) 2.0 and ISO/SAE 21434 to evaluate interface-level risk drivers and identify program-relevant mitigations. Results indicate that V2H can provide measurable resilience value, but outcomes are strongly context dependent on outage patterns and the share of events that are “V2H-applicable.” Typical transfer-to-backup behavior clustered on the order of minutes, but rare long-delay edge cases were observed (including an event approaching 30 minutes) and should be treated as a reliability risk. High-power testing showed that peak-rated output is not necessarily continuously deliverable; stable operation may require operation below nameplate ratings and attention to thermal and installation constraints. The cybersecurity assessment highlights a broad attack surface spanning commissioning, home networks, embedded services, and cloud/OTA pathways, motivating minimum controls for secure onboarding, signed updates, patch cadence, and coordinated vulnerability response for any scaled deployment.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
The role of building characteristics, demographics, and urban heat islands in shaping residential energy use
This study assesses the effects of residential building structure, socio-demographics, and ambient temperature conditions of a neighborhood to overall energy expenditures of a household. Using annual utility billing data, existing tax-lot records, temperature data, and U.S. Census demographic data, we ask two research questions: (1) What role do differences in neighborhood ambient heat, structural conditions and behavior play in helping to explain residential energy use? And (2) In what ways do energy expenditures spatially cluster in relation to urban heat islands? Using linear regression, spatial regression, and spatial clustering techniques, we evaluated the role of physical location of these households in relation to ambient temperatures. Significant positive relationships among energy expenditures and building size, average household size, White population, and population over 65 were observed; Significant negative relationships among energy expenditures and building density, renter population and population with a bachelor’s degree or higher were also observed. Negative relationships among morning and afternoon measures of heat, suggest that some areas spend less on energy use as a result of the neighborhood scale thermal environment. Spatial analysis of ambient temperature and energy expenditures show that energy use throughout the city is spatially clustered, with more affluent areas using more energy, regardless of whether heat islands are present. The results help to frame the role that increasing ambient temperatures in cities play in the spatial disparity in energy demand.
Residential Buildings, Energy Expenditure, Socio-d↗
Disturbance Propagation Stability in Droop-Controlled Microgrids
The disturbance response of the angle dynamics for a droop-controlled islanded microgrid is characterized. Specifically, a notion of propagation stability is defined, which is concerned with spatial attenuation vs amplification of input- output responses in the network in a H8 or H2 sense. Criteria for propagation stability are developed, phrased in terms of the microgrid’s inverter control parameters. The input frequency range over which the network is susceptible to amplification is also characterized, in the case that the criteria are not met. Based on the formal analysis, a the design of resilient controls that trade off coherence and disturbance propagation goals is briefly conceptualized. Finally, the propagation stability analysis is illustrate using a 15-bus example microgrid network.
Roy, Sandip↗
Uncertainty Quantification for Dissimilar Material Joints Under Corrosion Environment
Abstract Self-Piercing Riveting (SPR) is one of the most commonly used methods for joining dissimilar materials in the automotive industry. These joints are popular due to their adaptability, high performance and short cycle time. However, since these joints involve two dissimilar materials, they are susceptible to galvanic corrosion in the presence of an electrolyte which is driven by the difference in the equilibrium potential of the metals. This can affect the safety and resilience of these joints. In this paper, we focus on galvanic corrosion in Al-Fe SPR joints. A Machine learning (ML) based surrogate model, which is based off of FE simulations, for statistical corrosion analysis is developed. This model enables the resilience and reliability analysis of SPR joints under corrosion environment. In this study, first a physics-based finite element (FE) corrosion model has been developed to simulate the galvanic corrosion between a Fe cathode and an Al anode of a SPR joint. This model takes into account the effect of the crystal microstructure of the Al anode and the precipitation of the corrosion product. Several geometric and environmental factors including crevice gap, roughness of anode, conductivity, pH and the temperature of the electrolyte that effect corrosion are investigated. A thorough Uncertainty Quantification (UQ) analysis is conducted for the overall corrosion behavior of the Fe-Al SPR joints using a novelistic Probabilistic Confidence-Based Adaptive Sampling (PCAS) technique. PCAS is used to train the surrogate model by identifying the critical sampling points and thus reducing the overall computational costs. It is found that the electrolyte temperature has the largest effects on the material loss and needs to be managed closely for better corrosion control. By understanding the corrosion performance and resultant uncertainty impact on SPR joints, the reliability and resilience of these joints can be improved.
36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
Distributed clean energy opportunities for US oil refinery operations
The oil and gas industry is increasingly seeking operational improvements to reduce costs and emissions while improving resilience. This study describes techno-economic analysis of opportunities for distributed energy resources that could be integrated to support oil and gas companies’ economic, environmental, and energy resiliency goals. Specifically, the analysis evaluates solar photovoltaics, wind turbines, battery energy storage, landfill gas, biomass, municipal solid waste-to-energy, solar steam for process heat, combined heat and power, and electrolyzers for hydrogen production at two hypothetical refineries, one located in Louisiana and the other in southern California. These technologies could reduce the sites’ consumption of grid electricity and/or natural gas and thus can help reduce emissions. This study employs the ReOPT tool and System Advisor Model to evaluate the techno-economic potential for clean energy technologies to support refineries in achieving energy goals, including energy cost savings, resiliency, and emissions reductions. Results indicate that the associated costs of emissions reductions via several distributed clean energy technologies are competitive with other emissions reduction strategies such as energy efficiency, reducing flaring, direct carbon capture and sequestration, and markets under certain conditions. There are also cost beneficial opportunities for the use of renewable energy for refining, especially for resilience, depending on local conditions such as resources and utility costs.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Analysis and Technology Needs for Getting to 100% Renewable Energy: Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100) Example
The presentation outlines the energy sector impacts of Hurricane's Irma and Maria in Puerto Rico, followed by the analysis and technology needs for getting to 100% renewable energy with an overview of the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (i.e., PR 100 Study).
ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,POWER TRANSMI↗
Weather-Driven Resilience for Distribution Systems
With increasing billion dollar disasters due to weather events, it is of utmost priority for utility and grid operators to maintain and enhance the resilience of distribution grid. Traditionally, such analysis were conducted with reliability metrics alone. However, with increasing complexity of distribution grid and advancements in grid edge resources, evaluating grid resilience is challenging and involves multi-faceted analysis of the impact of weather events on the distribution grid. This presentation provides background, details, and future works in the field of weather-driven resilience for power distribution systems.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Development of the Contamination Distribution Centered Toxics Mobility Vulnerability Index in the Beaumont–Port Arthur Region of Texas
This study advances the Toxics Mobility Inventory (TMI) and the Toxics Mobility Vulnerability Index (TMVI) to develop a new tool to assess the movement of hazardous substances and their implications for vulnerable communities. It emphasizes the need to include contamination distribution variables in such indices to address disproportionate impacts and more accurately reflect vulnerability. The study uses the TMI framework and TMVI methodology in the Beaumont–Port Arthur region of Texas, also integrating contamination distribution considerations into the analysis to develop a new framework and process. The new Contamination Distribution Centered Toxics Mobility Vulnerability Index (CDC-TMVI) consolidates climate change and topography variables into a broader built environment vulnerability category while introducing a contamination sources category. Using ArcGIS Pro and ToxPi tools, the study evaluates 27 geospatial variables across four categories: built environment vulnerability, social vulnerability, health outcomes, and contamination sources. The results indicate significant contributions from contamination and social vulnerability variables, highlighting areas with higher risks of flooding and air pollution. This article advocates for future research and policy efforts to enhance the integration of contamination sources and their spatial distributions into toxics mobility assessments to better protect vulnerable populations. Furthermore, the unique methodology and findings serve as a basis for developing targeted measures and strategic planning to improve environmental health.
contamination↗
Long-time simulations for fixed input states on quantum hardware
Publicly accessible quantum computers open the exciting possibility of experimental dynamical quantum simulations. While rapidly improving, current devices have short coherence times, restricting the viable circuit depth. Despite these limitations, we demonstrate long-time, high fidelity simulations on current hardware. Specifically, we simulate an XY-model spin chain on Rigetti and IBM quantum computers, maintaining a fidelity over 0.9 for 150 times longer than is possible using the iterated Trotter method. Our simulations use an algorithm we call fixed state Variational Fast Forwarding (fsVFF). Recent work has shown an approximate diagonalization of a short time evolution unitary allows a fixed-depth simulation. fsVFF substantially reduces the required resources by only diagonalizing the energy subspace spanned by the initial state, rather than over the total Hilbert space. We further demonstrate the viability of fsVFF through large numerical simulations, and provide an analysis of the noise resilience and scaling of simulation errors.
97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
Master Services Agreement - Flexible Feeder/Distribution System Support: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)
PGE will engage NREL on a broad range of projects related to the integration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into the utility's operations. This portfolio of work could include projects focused on DER adoption models, advanced distribution management system (ADMS) and distributed energy management system (DERMS) design, DER dispatch strategy development, and DER valuation framework development. Additional topics could include long-term energy planning, renewable energy, energy efficiency and demand-side management. As well as technology evaluations and design guidance for building retrofits and new construction projects, energy and energy infrastructure planning, policies, and markets (and their analysis), energy storage, energy security and resilience (including energy system-related cybersecurity), transportation and mobility, technology integration analysis. Additionally, other assistance as requested by PGE consistent with NREL’s expertise.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Deploying Adversarial Attacks in Super-Resolution Models
Reliable super-resolution methods are crucial for applications like remote sensing, grid resilience and disaster impact analysis, and standoff biometrics. These methods infuse additional high-frequency information into reconstructions, allowing for better contextualization and image intelligence. However, super-resolution models can also introduce hallucinations or other unseen vulnerabilities that could be exploited by an adversary. This is further compounded by the prominence of deep learning in these models, as models are often blindly applied on out-of-distribution images. In this work, we implement adversarial attacks in common open-source super-resolution models and examine their impact on reconstructions and downstream classification tasks. We find that an adversarially trained super-resolution model can produce high-quality reconstructions that degrade downstream classifications. Moreover, these attacks do not require access to low-resolution imagery or class labels at inference time. These results demonstrate the vulnerability of super-resolution methods to malicious actors and motivates the development of a detector for super-resolution adversarial attacks. Further exploration of adversarial attacks in this domain is required to ensure trustworthiness and robustness of super-resolution models for national security applications.
45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
Long Duration Energy Storage Viability Survey
Energy storage technologies that can economically store and provide electricity over multi-day and seasonal timescales are likely to be a critical component of a sustainable and resilient energy system. This analysis performs a broad survey of energy storage technologies to find storage media that are promising for these long-duration energy storage applications.
levelized cost of storage↗
EVALUATING FACILITY ENERGY EFFICIENCY AND RESILIENCE OPPORTUNITIES WITH FEDS AND MCOR
Energy resilience has become increasingly important for critical building infrastructure, in response to concerns over potential disruptions to the electrical grid from threats both natural and man-made. Energy efficiency can provide a valuable resource for reducing critical loads and therefore lowering the cost of supplying alternative power. This paper highlights two tools that are well-suited for analyzing building energy efficiency and resilience opportunities and presents a case study for their combined application. The Facility Energy Decision System (FEDS) and Microgrid Component Optimization for Resilience (MCOR) tools can be used together to simulate building systems, identify energy efficiency measures, and evaluate resilience options for powering a site during an outage.
FEDS, MCOR, Energy Efficiency, Resilience, Simulat↗
Optimization of Energy Storage System Economics and Controls by Incorporating Battery Degradation Costs in REopt
The use of stationary electrochemical energy storage systems utilizing lithium-ion batteries has increased rapidly as the production scale and price for lithium-ion batteries has decreased. These energy storage systems are crucial for maintaining grid resiliency, especially for grids operating with high penetration of renewable energy generation assets or for with a variety of distributed energy generation and storage systems. One challenging factor for the development of battery energy storage systems is estimating the proper sizing, in terms of both power and energy, that minimizes total costs over the lifetime of the systems; this calculation is difficult in simple cases, where a battery is costed independently, but is extremely challenging when building loads and electrical generation by photovoltaic resources are also considered. REopt is a techoeconomic optimization tool developed by NREL to address these challenges. Previously, battery degradation has been priced by simply assuming a 10-year replacement schedule for battery systems. However, this does not account for varying degradation trends observed across real-world batteries, or allow for batteries to be operated in a degradation-aware manner that optimizes battery dispatch based on operating costs. This work incorporates a battery life model into REopt. This battery life model is simple, so that it may be solvable within the constrains of a mixed-integer linear optimization problem, but is fit to accelerated aging data recorded in the lab. To achieve the best possible accuracy for lifetime estimates given these constraints, parameters for the battery life model in REopt are estimated by fitting 20-year simulations of battery life after identifying state-space battery degradation model from accelerated aging data. Comparisons of battery life predicted in REopt and from the state-space battery degradation model to ensure validity of lifetime estimates made by REopt. Battery life and cost is optimized by controlling three decision to minimize system life cost: battery sizing, daily state-of-charge, and daily energy-throughput. The cost of battery degradation as a function of these control variables is then estimated assuming two possible maintenance strategies: replacement, where the entire battery system is replaced if cell reach an end-of-life capacity threshold; and augmentation, which establishes a fund to pay for continual purchase of new batteries to maintain the initial energy capacity of the system. These two strategies offer conservative (for replacement) and optimistic (for augmentation) bounds for total system cost. The degradation cost incurred by these strategies is then used to control battery dispatch decisions, operating the battery in a degradation-aware manner that maximizes battery lifetime while also providing energy when favorable. Because the mixed-integer linear program has perfect foresight of future energy needs, batteries with degradation costs are always operated using 'just-in-time' charging, which is unrealistic, as no energy is left in the storage system to perform other energy services or to serve as emergency back-up power. To combat this, an inequality constraint on the average annual state-of-charge is imposed, and the sensitivity of system cost to average stored energy, e.g., the cost of system resiliency, can be quantified. Analysis of results has several conclusions, for instance, oversizing of battery storage systems is not a cost burden when battery storage is an optimal solution, as any additional battery capacity can simply be utilized to avoid costs of purchasing energy from a utility.
battery↗
IEEE PES GM Poster - Cyber-Informed Engineering Approach to Mitigating BESS Supply Chain Concerns
Battery energy storage systems (BESS) are increasingly important to meet the needs of grid resilience and reliability. BESS provide critical grid services, maintaining stability of the grid with increased variable conditions. However, there are significant geopolitical and security concerns regarding their operation in critical infrastructure, due to lack of a domestic supply chain and prevalence of foreign entity of concern (FEOC) components in BESS and associated inverter-based resources. The supply chain challenge is dually exacerbated by a lack of alternative suppliers who can meet the economic targets for energy delivery and a potentially adversarial supply chain. Solutions are needed to secure components, addressing mixed layers of risk and engineering controls. This paper presents a specific application of Cyber-Informed Engineering (CIE) principles for BESS and recommends an alternative strategy to blocking the supply chain, ensuring that grid modernization targets can be met despite lack of a validated or secure supply chain. This study focuses on the United State (U.S.) use case, but the process can be applied globally to address supply chain security challenges. CIE practices represent the next step in functional assurance and risk mitigation, ensuring optimal resource allocation and enhancing security measures to safeguard the future of energy in the U.S. and beyond.
25 - ENERGY STORAGE↗