Results for “risk constraints” — Page 9

DOE OSTI2023

Compounding Uncertainties in Economic and Population Growth Increase Tail Risks for Relevant Outcomes Across Sectors

Understanding the long-term effects of population and GDP changes requires a multisectoral and regional understanding of the coupled human-Earth system, as the long-term evolution of this coupled system is influenced by human decisions and the Earth system. This study investigates the impact of compounding economic and population growth uncertainties on long-term multisectoral outcomes. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to explore the influence of compounding and feedback between future GDP and population growth on four key sectors: final energy consumption, water withdrawal, staple food prices, and CO 2 emissions. The results show that uncertainties in GDP and population compound, resulting in a magnification of tail risks for outcomes across sectors and regions. Compounding uncertainties significantly impact metrics such as CO 2 emissions and final energy consumption, particularly at the upper tail at both global and regional levels. However, the impact of staple food prices and water withdrawal depends on regional factors. Additionally, an alternative low-carbon transition scenario could compound uncertainties and increase tail risk, particularly in staple food prices, highlighting the influence of emergent constraints on land availability and food-energy competition for land use. The findings underscore the importance of considering and adequately accounting for compounding uncertainties in key drivers of multisectoral systems to enhance our comprehensive understanding of the complex nature of multisectoral systems. The paper provides valuable insights into the potential implications of compounding uncertainties.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Diagnostics for Burning Plasmas

Here, recent progress in the design and manufacturing development of in-vessel diagnostic components by the U.S. ITER team is reported. Design and manufacturing choices are driven by engineering challenges stemming from ITER’s burning plasma mission, which entails levels of plasma neutron emission, pulse lengths, and size scales well beyond the existing database. Challenges include port access limitations, neutron irradiation and activation risks, nuclear heating of components, complex interfaces, remote handling compatibility, and constraints on component and processing materials. Responses to these challenges are presented using examples from the low field side reflectometer, toroidal interferometer polarimeter, and electron cyclotron emission diagnostics. Relevance of the experience from ITER diagnostics engineering to the design of future integrated fusion facilities based on burning plasmas is addressed.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Glass Crystallization Constraints for WTP LAW Operations: Assessment of Isothermal Treatments on Crystal Formation

Much work has been done to expand the glass composition region available for operation of the Hanford Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. This includes the development of updated glass property-composition models as well as constraints. This report supports this effort by suggesting constraints for avoiding excessive, and likely detrimental, crystallization during melter operation while processing advanced low-activity glass waste forms. The constraints target SnO 2 and ZrO 2 crystals that can form when melter temperatures drop below 1100 °C. These types of crystals were found to be potentially detrimental during processing as they are denser than low-activity waste glass melts. SnO 2 , density of 6.95 g/cm3, and ZrO 2 , density of 5.68 g/cm3, have the potential to form during melter idling and settle to the bottom of the less dense glass melt (approximate density 2.65 g/cm3). If the crystals are present in appreciable amounts, they can result in blockages of the pour-spout riser, which impacts glass pouring and melter operation. Using previously acquired results and results from testing during this effort, constraints were determined and are suggested as options to reduce the risk of forming crystals of the types and concentrations that are likely detrimental to melter operation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Glass Crystallization Constraints for WTP LAW Operations: Assessment of Isothermal Treatments on Crystal Formation

Much work has been done to expand the glass composition region available for operation of the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant. This includes the development of updated glass property-composition models as well as constraints. This report supports this effort by suggesting constraints for avoiding excessive, and likely detrimental, crystallization during melter operation while processing advanced low-activity glasses. The constraints target Cassiterite and ZrO 2 -containing phases (ZCP, e.g., Baddeleyite and Zircon) that can form when melter temperatures drop below 1100 °C. These types of crystals were found to be potentially detrimental during processing as they are denser than low-activity waste glass melts; with densities of 6.95 g/cm 3 for Cassiterite and 5.68 g/cm 3 for Baddeleyite (the most prevalent ZCP). Compared to melt densities of approximately 2.65 g/cm 3 . Thus, they have the potential to form during melter idling and settle to the bottom of the melter or inside the melter. If the crystals are present in appreciable amounts, they can result in blockages of the pour-spout riser, which impacts glass pouring and melter operation. Additionally, SnO 2 and ZrO 2 are added to glass formulations to improve glass durability. Their precipitation from the melt may reduce overall glass durability. Using previously acquired results and results from testing during this effort, the following constraints (Table S.1) were determined and are recommended to reduce the risk of forming crystals of the types and concentrations that are likely detrimental to melter operation.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

NASA NTRS1994

Shared Problem Models and Crew Decision Making

The importance of crew decision making to aviation safety has been well established through NTSB accident analyses: Crew judgment and decision making have been cited as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents in commercial air transport, general aviation, and military aviation. Yet the bulk of research on decision making has not proven helpful in improving the quality of decisions in the cockpit. One reason is that traditional analytic decision models are inappropriate to the dynamic complex nature of cockpit decision making and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions. A new model of dynamic naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove more useful for training or aiding cockpit decision making. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulation and National Transportation Safety Board accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation and reflect the crew's metacognitive skill. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relation between communication that serves to build performance. Implications of these findings for crew training will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS1994

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment: Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS1994

Decision Making in Action: Applying Research to Practice

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS1994

Decision Making in Action

The importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. A similar observation has been made in nuclear power plants. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful in improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multidimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking in response to a problem. This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for spaceflight and training for offshore installations will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS1995

Decision Making in the Airplane

The Importance of decision-making to safety in complex, dynamic environments like mission control centers, aviation, and offshore installations has been well established. NASA-ARC has a program of research dedicated to fostering safe and effective decision-making in the manned spaceflight environment. Because access to spaceflight is limited, environments with similar characteristics, including aviation and nuclear power plants, serve as analogs from which space-relevant data can be gathered and theories developed. Analyses of aviation accidents cite crew judgement and decision making as causes or contributing factors in over half of all accidents. Yet laboratory research on decision making has not proven especially helpful In improving the quality of decisions in these kinds of environments. One reason is that the traditional, analytic decision models are inappropriate to multi-dimensional, high-risk environments, and do not accurately describe what expert human decision makers do when they make decisions that have consequences. A new model of dynamic, naturalistic decision making is offered that may prove useful for improving decision making in complex, isolated, confined and high-risk environments. Based on analyses of crew performance in full-mission simulators and accident reports, features that define effective decision strategies in abnormal or emergency situations have been identified. These include accurate situation assessment (including time and risk assessment), appreciation of the complexity of the problem, sensitivity to constraints on the decision, timeliness of the response, and use of adequate information. More effective crews also manage their workload to provide themselves with time and resources to make good decisions. In brief, good decisions are appropriate to the demands of the situation. Effective crew decision making and overall performance are mediated by crew communication. Communication contributes to performance because it assures that all crew members have essential information, but it also regulates and coordinates crew actions and is the medium of collective thinking In response to a problem, This presentation will examine the relations between leadership, communication, decision making and overall crew performance. Implications of these findings for training will be discussed.

Orasanu, Judith↗

NASA NTRS2005

Knowledge Capture and Management for Space Flight Systems

The incorporation of knowledge capture and knowledge management strategies early in the development phase of an exploration program is necessary for safe and successful missions of human and robotic exploration vehicles over the life of a program. Following the transition from the development to the flight phase, loss of underlying theory and rationale governing design and requirements occur through a number of mechanisms. This degrades the quality of engineering work resulting in increased life cycle costs and risk to mission success and safety of flight. Due to budget constraints, concerned personnel in legacy programs often have to improvise methods for knowledge capture and management using existing, but often sub-optimal, information technology and archival resources. Application of advanced information technology to perform knowledge capture and management would be most effective if program wide requirements are defined at the beginning of a program.

Goodman, John L.↗

NASA NTRS2006

Current ISS Exercise Countermeasures: Where are we now?

Current International Space Station (ISS) crew schedules include 1.5 h/d for completion of resistive exercise and 1 h/d of aerobic exercise , 6 d/wk. While ISS post flight decrements in muscle strength, bone m ineral density, and aerobic capacity improved in some crewmembers, de conditioning was still evident even with this volume of exercise. Res ults from early ISS expeditions show maximum loss in bone mineral density of the lumbar spine and pelvis in excess of 1.5% per month, with all crewmembers demonstrating significant bone loss in one or more re gions. Similarly, post flight muscle strength losses in the hamstring and quadriceps muscle groups exceeded 30% in the immediate post miss ion period in some crewmembers. Measures of aerobic capacity early in the mission show average decrements of 15%, but with onboard aerobic exercise capability, the crew has been able to "train up" over the co urse of the mission. These findings are highly variable among crewmem bers and appear to be correlated with availability and reliability of the inflight resistive exercise device (RED), cycle ergometer, and t readmill. This suite of hardware was installed on ISS with limited op erational evaluation in groundbased test beds. As a result, onorbit hardware constraints have resulted in inadequate physical stimulus, d econditioning, and increased risk for compromised performance during intra and extravehicular activities. These issues indicate that the c urrent ISS Countermeasures System reliability or validity are not ade quate for extendedduration exploration missions. Learning Objective: A better understanding of the status of ISS exercise countermeasures , their ability to protect physiologic systems, and recommendations for exploration exercise countermeasures.

Hayes, J. C.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Spatial Scaling of Snow Observations and Microwave Emission Modeling During CLPX and Appropriate Satellite Sensor Resolution

Accurate estimates of snow water equivalent and other properties play an important role in weather, natural hazard, and hydrological forecasting and climate modeling over a range of scales in space and time. Remote sensing-derived estimates have traditionally been of the "snapshot" type, but techniques involving models with assimilation are also being explored. In both cases, forward emission models are useful to understand the observed passive microwave signatures and developing retrieval algorithms. However, mismatches between passive microwave sensor resolutions and the scales of processes controlling subpixel heterogeneity can affect the accuracy of the estimates. Improving the spatial resolution of new passive microwave satellite sensors is a major desire in order to (literally) resolve such subpixel heterogeneity, but limited spacecraft and mission resources impose severe constraints and tradeoffs. In order to maximize science return while mitigating risk for a satellite concept, it is essential to understand the scaling behavior of snow in terms of what the sensor sees (brightness temperature) as well as in terms of the actual variability of snow. NASA's Cold Land Processes Experiment-1 (CLPX-1: Colorado, 2002 and 2003) was designed to provide data to measure these scaling behaviors for varying snow conditions in areas with forested, alpine, and meadow/pasture land cover. We will use observations from CLPX-1 ground, airborne, and satellite passive microwave sensors to examine and evaluate the scaling behavior of observed and modeled brightness temperatures and observed and retrieved snow parameters across scales from meters to 10's of kilometers. The conclusions will provide direct examples of the appropriate spatial sampling scales of new sensors for snow remote sensing. The analyses will also illustrate the effects and spatial scales of the underlying phenomena (e.g., land cover) that control subpixel heterogeneity.

Kim, Edward J.↗

NASA NTRS2014

NASA HRP Immunology Discipline - Use of Terrestrial Analogs

Due to the cost and operational constraints, as well as technical implementation limitations, it is desirous to perform relevant space physiology investigations first in terrestrial 'space analogs'. This is particularly true for initial investigations, which may then provide appropriate focus for subsequent flight investigations, or for mechanistic investigations that simply cannot be performed during spaceflight. Appropriate analog choice is extremely important. There are a wide variety of terrestrial space analogs, each relevant to a particular physiological discipline (or disciplines) and each with a particular fidelity (or lack thereof) to spaceflight, and each with unique operational constraints. The HRP Immunology Discipline is tasked with managing the HRP Risk concerning clinical risk for Astronaut crews related to spaceflight-associated immune dysregulation. Such dysregulation has been documented to occur during spaceflight, and found to persist for the duration of a 6-month ISS mission. Studies continue to characterize the onorbit phenomenon, but it generally consists of diminished immunocyte function, dysregulated cytokine profiles, and persistent herpesvirus reactivation. Causes are thought to synergistically include microgravity, psychological or physiological stress, radiation, and/or circadian misalignment. An appropriate terrestrial analog for immune dysregulation would replicate as many of these influences as possible. Such analogs may include clinostat or bioreactor cell culture (microgravity), hindlimb suspension (stress, fluid shifts, hypokinesis), or human deployment to remote or extreme environments (isolation, stress, circadian). Also, the laboratory setting may be used as an analog, or to augment analogs, such as sleep deprivation/misalignment or human centrifugation to replicate gravitational stress. As an appropriate example of a NASA Disciplines use of Terrestrial space analogs, this talk will discuss spaceflight associated immune dysregulation, terrestrial immune analogs, and recent analog investigations.

Crucian, Brian↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway at the Crossroads of Sustainable Lunar Exploration

The Gateway Program has made substantial design and development progress toward delivering a small, human-tended lunar space station purposefully designed to enable sustainable human exploration. The Program integrates partners and providers organizationally and physically as part of the spacecraft. The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) with the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications (ESPRIT) HALO Lunar Communications System (HLCS) have begun manufacturing the long lead components and will be launched first as a Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV). The International Habitat (I-Hab) and ESPRIT Refueling Module (ERM) are passing life cycle milestones and include capabilities key for human crewmembers, such as windows, private sleeping quarters, and galley functions. The Logistics Module (LM) may provide a variety of services to Gateway depending on each mission. Requirements for the airlock have been developed, including requests that it support the integrated spacecraft with functions like augmenting heat rejection capabilities, and interfaces with new spacesuits will soon be developed in more detail. As a critical element of the architecture for solar system exploration, Gateway implements key tenets and features of international interoperability standards necessary to operate with multiple visiting vehicles and lunar assets, especially avionics, communications, and docking. Specific choices such as software architecture and standards, power standards, and robotics standards make it possible to utilize heritage or proprietary technology, yet still operate as one spacecraft. Engineering teams are evaluating many possible future missions to be executed at or utilizing the Gateway. The system architecture protects for an evolvable, extensible, and flexible capability. Designing systems robust enough to serve as a cornerstone of exploration activities for decades while remaining adaptable is not without its challenges. The detailed integration activities have revealed challenges and the need to mature key technologies. Refueling is a key component of achieving long life for Gateway, with unique operations to plan, safety concerns to mitigate, and risk reduction activities to conduct to better understand the system. The constraints and impacts of the design of visiting vehicles is also an important concern, with orientation constraints, control of attitude and orbit of the Gateway with docked visiting vehicles. Tradeoffs between robust maintainable systems and lightweight, compact systems must be balanced. Opportunities still exist for adding additional advanced capabilities to increase and extend Gateway’s benefits, such as intravehicular robotics, autonomous Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C), and augmented control propulsion, heat rejection, or other services.

Molly S Anderson↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Gateway at the Crossroads of Sustainable Lunar Exploration

The Gateway Program has made substantial design and development progress toward delivering a small, human-tended lunar space station purposefully designed to enable sustainable human exploration. The Program integrates partners and providers organizationally and physically as part of the spacecraft. The Power and Propulsion Element (PPE) and the Habitation and Logistics Outpost (HALO) with the European System Providing Refueling, Infrastructure and Telecommunications (ESPRIT) HALO Lunar Communications System (HLCS) have begun manufacturing the long lead components and will be launched first as a Co-Manifested Vehicle (CMV). The International Habitat (I-Hab) and ESPRIT Refueling Module (ERM) are passing life cycle milestones and include capabilities key for human crewmembers, such as windows, private sleeping quarters, and galley functions. The Logistics Module (LM) may provide a variety of services to Gateway depending on each mission. Requirements for the airlock have been developed, including requests that it support the integrated spacecraft with functions like augmenting heat rejection capabilities, and interfaces with new spacesuits will soon be developed in more detail. As a critical element of the architecture for solar system exploration, Gateway implements key tenets and features of international interoperability standards necessary to operate with multiple visiting vehicles and lunar assets, especially avionics, communications, and docking. Specific choices such as software architecture and standards, power standards, and robotics standards make it possible to utilize heritage or proprietary technology, yet still operate as one spacecraft. Engineering teams are evaluating many possible future missions to be executed at or utilizing the Gateway. The system architecture protects for an evolvable, extensible, and flexible capability. Designing systems robust enough to serve as a cornerstone of exploration activities for decades while remaining adaptable is not without its challenges. The detailed integration activities have revealed challenges and the need to mature key technologies. Refueling is a key component of achieving long life for Gateway, with unique operations to plan, safety concerns to mitigate, and risk reduction activities to conduct to better understand the system. The constraints and impacts of the design of visiting vehicles is also an important concern, with orientation constraints, control of attitude and orbit of the Gateway with docked visiting vehicles. Tradeoffs between robust maintainable systems and lightweight, compact systems must be balanced. Opportunities still exist for adding additional advanced capabilities to increase and extend Gateway’s benefits, such as intravehicular robotics, autonomous Guidance Navigation and Control (GN&C), and augmented control propulsion, heat rejection, or other services.

Molly S Anderson↗

DOE OSTI2025

Stripline Block Sensor System

he Long Baseline Neutrino Facility requires remote handling of the stripline block, the component responsible for providing current to the focusing horns. There are many constraints due to the surroundings the modules reside in such as small clearances as well as a highly radioactive environment. Existing systems have already been implemented within the process; however, these systems offer limited information leaving much risk during operations. This calls for a sensor system that is sufficiently accurate, complies with project constraints, and provides valuable information throughout the replacement period. A proposed solution utilizes a three dimensional indoor positioning system to provide the operator with real-time positioning and rotational information. Future work would consist of finding vendors capable of providing technology that fits our constraints, proof of concept tests, implementation planning, as well as trails within the target hall itself. A three dimensional indoor positioning system would provide an incredibly diverse tool capable of being utilized in a variety of situations.

Espinoza, David↗

DOE OSTI2024

Security Constrained Distributed Transaction Model for Multiple Prosumers

Massive access of renewable energy has prompted demand-side distributed resources to participate in regulation and improve flexibility of power systems. With large-scale access of massive, decentralized, and diverse distributed resources, demand-side market members have transformed from traditional “consumers” to “prosumers”. To explore the distributed transaction model of prosumers, in this paper, a multi-prosumer distributed transaction model is proposed, and the Conditional Value-at-Risk (CVaR) theory is applied to quantify potential risks caused by the stochastic characteristics inherited from renewable energy. First, a prosumer model under constraints of the distribution network including photovoltaic units, fuel cells, energy storage system, central air conditioning and flexible loads is established, and a multi-prosumer distributed transaction strategy is proposed to achieve power sharing among multiple prosumers. Second, a prosumer transaction model based on CVaR is constructed to measure risks inherited from the uncertainty of PV output within the prosumer and ensure safety of system operation in extreme PV output scenarios. Then, the alternating direction multiplier method (ADMM) is utilized to solve the constructed model efficiently. Finally, distributed transaction costs of prosumers are distributed fairly based on the generalized Nash equilibrium to maximize social benefits. Simulation results show the multi-prosumer distributed transaction mechanism established under the proposed generalized Nash equilibrium method can encourage power sharing among prosumers, increasing their own income and social benefits. Also, the CVaR can assist decision making of prosumers in weighting the risks and benefits, improving system resilience through energy management of prosumers.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

IMPACT-ing Exploration Spaceflight Risk Prediction and Medical System Design

Human exploration spaceflight missions to the Moon and Mars present unprecedented challenges for in-mission medical care. Compared with the ISS, the greater distance from Earth will mean increased mission durations, communication delays, limited to no resupply opportunities, and significant limitations on the evacuation of ill or injured crew. Spacecraft mass, volume, and power will be curtailed while higher demands will be placed on the crew’s knowledge, skills, and abilities. In this higher risk environment, it is important to: a) quantitatively estimate human system risk attributable to medical conditions, a process known as Probabilistic Risk Analysis, and b) use these estimates to inform medical system design. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a PRA and medical trade space analysis tool developed by NASA to advance exploration mission medical system design. IMPACT improves upon and will soon replace NASA’s existing tool, the Integrated Medical Model, with: a novel evidence base baselined to exploration environments; an expanded list of 120 medical conditions; a significant increase in the number of medical resources that can be utilized and in the flexibility of their use; and the modelling of time lost performing mission-specific tasks due to medical conditions. IMPACT provides evidence-based, mission-specific PRA estimates of in-flight medical risk and an initial list of clinical capabilities and medical resources/hardware to be considered. In addition, sophisticated trade space capabilities estimate how human system risk varies with changes to the mission architecture or medical capability set (e.g., if the system mass constraint decreases by 10% or ultrasound is removed). This panel will provide an overview of IMPACT, its intended use cases, and future development plans. The panel will be the first public presentation of IMPACT results, including medical risk estimates for extended duration Artemis missions, the medical conditions most influencing medical risk metrics, and the clinical capabilities that have the largest effect on medical risk.

Ben Easter↗