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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

From tides to seasons: How cyclic tidal drivers and plant physiology interact to affect carbon cycling at the terrestrial-estuarine boundary (Final technical report)

Coastal ecosystems are among the most biologically and biogeochemically active and diverse systems on Earth. Because they act as important linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the open ocean, their incorporation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical to predict coastal and global responses to environmental changes. However, they vary greatly in the magnitude of tides and the volume and timing of freshwater input from land, making it challenging to model the major biogeochemical reactions that control productivity and greenhouse gas emissions across coastal terrestrial aquatic interfaces (TAIs). Our overall objective was to improve mechanistic process understanding and modeling of tidal wetland hydro-biogeochemistry in coastal TAIs. We established a new flux tower site (Ameriflux US-PLo) in the oligohaline part of the Parker River to continuously monitor ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes under temporally varying salinity conditions. The site is co-located with long-term monitoring plots of the Plum Island Ecosystems LTER project. We installed wells and redox sensors in the marsh interior and creek bank, established biomass monitoring plots and deployed novel optode sensors in both locations. We used this data to parameterize plant-mediated transport in PFLOTRAN and tested the impact of soil heterogeneity on porewater constituents and gas fluxes. We collected observations of root oxygen release with a novel planar optode system in the field. Flux data collected during the measurement period encompasses a large variation in salinity ranging from drought to record precipitation years. We developed a method to extract functional relationships from the flux data using artificial neural networks, identifying salinity thresholds for CH 4 fluxes. Finally, we are using the coupled ELM-PFLOTRAN model to test the impact of antecedent hydrological conditions on the salinity-CH 4 flux relationship. This grant contributed to the professional development of one postdoc, three research assistants and one graduate student. The sensor data has been shared with external collaborators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

COMPOFF: A Compiler Cost model using Machine Learning to predict the Cost of OpenMP Offloading

The HPC industry is inexorably moving towards an era of extremely heterogeneous architectures, with more devices configured on any given HPC platform and potentially more kinds of devices, some of them highly specialized. Writing a separate code suitable for each target system for a given HPC application is not practical. The better solution is to use directive-based parallel programming models such as OpenMP. OpenMP provides a number of options for offloading a piece of code to devices like GPUs. To select the best option from such options during compilation, most modern compilers use analytical models to estimate the cost of executing the original code and the different offloading code variants. Building such an analytical model for compilers is a difficult task that necessitates a lot of effort on the part of a compiler engineer. Recently, machine learning techniques have been successfully applied to build cost models for a variety of compiler optimization problems. In this paper, we present COMPOFF, a cost model which uses the multi-layer perceptrons to statically estimates the Cost of OpenMP OFFloading. We used six different transformations on a parallel code of Wilson Dslash Operator to support GPU offloading, and we predicted their cost of execution on different GPUs using COMPOFF during compile time. Our results show that this model can predict offloading costs with a root mean squared error in prediction of less than 0.5 seconds. Our preliminary findings indicate that this work will make it much easier and faster for scientists and compiler developers to port legacy HPC applications that use OpenMP to new heterogeneous computing environment.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Multi‐season analysis reveals hundreds of drought‐responsive genes in sorghum

Persistent drought affects global crop production and is becoming more severe in many parts of the world in recent decades. Deciphering how plants respond to drought will facilitate the development of flexible mitigation strategies. Sorghum bicolor L. Moench (sorghum), a major cereal crop and an emerging bioenergy crop, exhibits remarkable resilience to drought. To better understand the molecular traits that underlie sorghum's remarkable drought tolerance, we undertook a large-scale sorghum gene expression profiling effort, totaling nearly 1500 transcriptome profiles, across a 3-year field study with replicated plots in California's Central Valley. This study included time-resolved gene expression data from roots and leaves of two sorghum genotypes, BTx642 and RTx430, with different pre-flowering and post-flowering drought-tolerance adaptations under control and drought conditions. Quantification of genotype-specific drought tolerance effects was enabled by de novo sequencing, assembly, and annotation of both BTx642 and RTx430 genomes. These reference-quality genomes were used to construct a pangene set for characterizing conserved and genotype-specific expression. By integrating time-resolved transcriptomic responses to drought in the field across three consecutive years, we identified a set of 726 drought-responsive genes that responded similarly in all 3 years of our field study. Functional enrichment analysis identified abiotic stress, secondary cell wall-related processes and metabolism as particularly affected under both types of drought stress. We also found that some glyoxylate cycle pathway genes, including malate synthase and isocitrate lyase, are differentially regulated particularly during post-flowering drought stress, implicating this pathway as potentially important for drought responsiveness. This expansive dataset represents a unique resource for sorghum and drought research communities and provides a methodological framework for the integration of multi-faceted time-resolved transcriptomic datasets.

Cole, Benjamin [USDOE Joint Genome Institute (JGI)↗

Uncertainty Analysis and Software Verification

Uncertainty analyses are an important part of calibrations and testing. They allow researchers insight on how to reduce and mitigate errors in testing. Each device used in testing introduces error in a system, as well as other sources such as environmental conditions, electronics, analog to digital, and random errors. Each source is carefully examined to identify how much error it introduces to a system. These sources are then combined using various methods of uncertainty calculations. To verify and validate software, a manual calculation is required to ensure the software is performing as intended. Using Excel to verify the calculations, we can identify discrepancies within the software. The root of the sum of the squares uncertainty (RSS) is used to find the combined uncertainty of a device at one and two standard deviations of the mean. Calibrations on accelerometers are performed using a vibration system along with a back-toback reference accelerometer. The vibration system takes a reference point at 100Hz frequency at 10g amplitude. The sensitivities are collected at each dialed in frequency. The sensitivity of the device represents the electrical output of the UUT (mV, pC, etc.) per unit of acceleration (g). The full history of sensitivities of selected accelerometers are used to find the averaged, standard deviation, and uncertainty of the device at each frequency tested. The uncertainty calculations from excel and the software are then compared.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Fluid-Kinetic Coupling: Advanced Discretizations for Simulations on Emerging Heterogeneous Architectures (LDRD FY20-0643)

Plasma physics simulations are vital for a host of Sandia mission concerns, for fundamental science, and for clean energy in the form of fusion power. Sandia's most mature plasma physics simulation capabilities come in the form of particle-in-cell (PIC) models and magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) models. MHD models for a plasma work well in denser plasma regimes when there is enough material that the plasma approximates a fluid. PIC models, on the other hand, work well in lower-density regimes, in which there is not too much to simulate; error in PIC scales as the square root of the number of particles, making high-accuracy simulations expensive. Real-world applications, however, almost always involve a transition region between the high-density regimes where MHD is appropriate, and the low-density regimes for PIC. In such a transition region, a direct discretization of Vlasov is appropriate. Such discretizations come with their own computational costs, however; the phase-space mesh for Vlasov can involve up to six dimensions (seven if time is included), and to apply appropriate homogeneous boundary conditions in velocity space requires meshing a substantial padding region to ensure that the distribution remains sufficiently close to zero at the velocity boundaries. Moreover, for collisional plasmas, the right-hand side of the Vlasov equation is a collision operator, which is non-local in velocity space, and which may dominate the cost of the Vlasov solver. The present LDRD project endeavors to develop modern, foundational tools for the development of continuum-kinetic Vlasov solvers, using the discontinuous Petrov-Galerkin (DPG) methodology, for discretization of Vlasov, and machine-learning (ML) models to enable efficient evaluation of collision operators. DPG affords several key advantages. First, it has a built-in, robust error indicator, allowing us to adapt the mesh in a very natural way, enabling a coarse velocity-space mesh near the homogeneous boundaries, and a fine mesh where the solution has fine features. Second, it is an inherently high-order, high-intensity method, requiring extra local computations to determine so-called optimal test functions, which makes it particularly suited to modern hardware in which floating-point throughput is increasing at a faster rate than memory bandwidth. Finally, DPG is a residual-minimizing method, which enables high-accuracy computation: in typical cases, the method delivers something very close to the $L^2$ projection of the exact solution. Meanwhile, the ML-based collision model we adopt affords a cost structure that scales as the square root of a standard direct evaluation. Moreover, we design our model to conserve mass, momentum, and energy by construction, and our approach to training is highly flexible, in that it can incorporate not only synthetic data from direct-simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) codes, but also experimental data. We have developed two DPG formulations for Vlasov-Poisson: a time-marching, backward-Euler discretization and a space-time discretization. We have conducted a number of numerical experiments to verify the approach in a 1D1V setting. In this report, we detail these formulations and experiments. We also summarize some new theoretical results developed as part of this project (published as papers previously): some new analysis of DPG for the convection-reaction problem (of which the Vlasov equation is an instance), a new exponential integrator for DPG, and some numerical exploration of various DPG-based time-marching approaches to the heat equation. As part of this work, we have contributed extensively to the Camellia open-source library; we also describe the new capabilities and their usage. We have also developed a well-documented methodology for single-species collision operators, which we applied to argon and demonstrated with numerical experiments. We summarize those results here, as well as describing at a high level a design extending the methodology to multi-species operators. We have released a new open-source library, MLC, under a BSD license; we include a summary of its capabilities as well.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Quantification of manganese for ChemCam Mars and laboratory spectra using a multivariate model

In this work, we report a new calibration model for manganese using the laser-induced breakdown spectroscopy instrument that is part of the ChemCam instrument suite onboard the NASA Curiosity rover. The model has been trained using an expanded set of 523 manganese-bearing rock, mineral, metal ore, and synthetic standards. The optimal calibration model uses the Partial Least Squares (PLS) and Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) multivariate techniques, with a novel “double blending” technique. We determined the detection limit for manganese is 82 ppm using a method blank procedure and is possibly as low as 27 ppm based on visual inspection of the spectra. Based on a representative test set consisting of measurements on 93 standards, the double blended multivariate model shows a Root Mean Squared Error of Prediction (RMSEP) accuracy of 1.39 wt% MnO for the full blended model. Employing a local RMSEP estimate where the model performance is evaluated based on nearby test samples, the accuracy is 0.03 wt% at the quantification limit (0.05 wt% MnO), 0.4 wt% accuracy at 1.0 wt% MnO, and 4.4 wt% accuracy at 100 wt% MnO. Precision is estimated using the standard deviation of the test set measurements, and is ±0.01 wt% MnO at the quantification limit, ±0.09 wt% MnO at 1.0 wt% MnO, and ± 2.1 wt% MnO at 100 wt% MnO (all 1 standard deviation). This new calibration is important for understanding the variation of manganese in the bedrock with the Curiosity rover on Mars, which provides insight into past redox conditions on Mars.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Biomolecular and Characterization Imaging Science Program: 2023 Principal Investigator Meeting Proceedings

The 2023 U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) program’s Biomolecular Characterization and Imaging Science (BCIS) Principal Investigator Meeting expanded in scope from previous Bioimaging Science Program (BSP) meetings to include BER Structural Biology and Imaging Resources, which are located largely at DOE Office of Science national laboratories. The BCIS meeting was part of BER’s Biological Systems Science Division (BSSD) annual PI meeting, which was held April 17–19, 2023, and featured parallel meetings of the BCIS and Genomic Science programs (GSP). The meetings were held together to encourage networking and idea exchange across technologies and biological application areas, forging new multidisciplinary collaborations among researchers from adjacent BSSD programmatic areas. Two joint BCIS-GSP sessions were held: “BCIS Technologies for Investigating the Rhizosphere” and “Joint Emerging Topics and Technologies.” The rhizosphere session focused on scientific findings from BCIS and GSP PIs, including national laboratory collaborations. The intent was to identify new opportunities to measure and understand the complex community of microbes, roots, and soils that support plant growth under challenging environmental conditions. The emerging technologies session highlighted forward-looking approaches and tools to tackle challenges within the scope of BSSD research on investigating and modifying genomic and molecular function. A final interactive discussion of the BCIS program was led by plenary session chairs.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Shortwave Array Spectroradiometer-Hemispheric (SAS-He): design and evaluation

A novel ground-based radiometer, referred to as the Shortwave Array Spectroradiometer-Hemispheric (SAS-He), is introduced. This radiometer uses the shadow-band technique to report total irradiance and its direct and diffuse components frequently (every 30 s) with continuous spectral coverage (350–1700 nm) and moderate spectral (~2.5 nm ultraviolet–visible and ~6 nm shortwave-infrared) resolution. The SAS-He's performance is evaluated using integrated datasets collected over coastal regions during three field campaigns supported by the US Department of Energy's Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program, namely the (1) Two-Column Aerosol Project (TCAP; Cape Cod, Massachusetts), (2) Tracking Aerosol Convection Interactions Experiment (TRACER; in and around Houston, Texas), and (3) Eastern Pacific Cloud Aerosol Precipitation Experiment (EPCAPE; La Jolla, California). We compare (i) aerosol optical depth (AOD) and total optical depth (TOD) derived from the direct irradiance, as well as (ii) the diffuse irradiance and direct-to-diffuse ratio (DDR) calculated from two components of the total irradiance. As part of the evaluation, both AOD and TOD derived from the SAS-He direct irradiance are compared to those provided by a collocated Cimel sunphotometer (CSPHOT) at five (380, 440, 500, 675, 870 nm) and two (1020, 1640 nm) wavelengths, respectively. Additionally, the SAS-He diffuse irradiance and DDR are contrasted with their counterparts offered by a collocated multifilter rotating shadowband radiometer (MFRSR) at six (415, 500, 615, 675, 870, 1625 nm) wavelengths. Overall, reasonable agreement is demonstrated between the compared products despite the challenging observational conditions associated with varying aerosol loadings and diverse types of aerosols and clouds. For example, the AOD- and TOD-related values of root mean square error remain within 0.021 at 380, 440, 500, 675, 870, 1020, and 1640 nm wavelengths during the three field campaigns.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

Lifetime fatigue response due to wake steering on a pair of utility-scale wind turbines

Quantifying the impacts on turbine loads during wind farm control is an important consideration in assessing power production benefits. Wake steering controls aim to improve total wind farm performance by coordinating the control actions of individual turbines, wherein an upstream turbine is intentionally yawed at an offset angle from the measured wind direction. Consequently, this redirects its wake for improved power production and potentially reduces fatigue loads of the downstream turbines. This paper studies the lifetime fatigue loads associated with wake steering by using utility-scale wind turbine experimental data to conduct an analysis on a pair of wind turbines. This study was part of a large field experiment in which a group of five GE 1.5-MW SLE CWE turbines were selected as targets for conducting wake steering research. A standard loads instrumentation package and data acquisition system were installed on two turbines within the cluster to measure turbine fundamental loads. The time-series databases were used to calculate loads statistics as well as short-term and lifetime damage equivalent loads. Fatigue calculations followed the guidance in Annex H of the International Electrotechnical Commission standard 61400-1, Edition 4. Lifetime fatigue calculation results are presented in this analysis; three methods of assessing lifetime fatigue were used to determine percent difference for blade root moments, main shaft moments, main shaft torque, and tower top torque. For all three fatigue treatments, some components’ lifetime fatigue increases for the controlled turbine; however, the downwind turbine experienced a reduction in lifetime fatigue and combined effect for the turbine pair results in a reduction of fatigue when wake steering controls are applied.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Optimization of Geometric Perturbations on a Rod Moving Through a High Explosive Target

After completing a study to ensure the simulation results were converged, several high resolution 3D Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamic (SPH) simulations of copper rods impacting a high explosive (LX14) target were performed. This was then formulated into an optimization problem: I wanted to find the optimum shape and location of a perturbation on the rod that would maximize its erosion after it left the target. The shape of the perturbation was modeled as a 2D Gaussian bump and parameterized by its location along the rod axis (z 0 ) and amplitude (A). The final mass of the coherent part of the rod as it leaves the target was used as a metric to represent the erosion of the rod, and the optimization was formulated to maximize this metric with respect to the aforementioned design variables. Due to the expensive nature of the high-fidelity 3D SPH simulations, a surrogate model needed to be chosen so that many function calls to the optimizer would be feasible. Thus, a strategic full factorial sampling plan was chosen to build a dataset, which consisted of 24 high-fidelity simulations. Two surrogate models, a third order polynomial regression model and a Gaussian Process Model, were analyzed using a 14%/86% test/train holdout technique. The root mean square and R2 score of the test set was used to determine the best model, and the third order polynomial regression model was chosen as the surrogate model. Finally, the Nelder-Mead Simplex and Basin-hopping optimization algorithms were implemented, and it was found that the two algorithms gave slightly different optimum values. Nelder-Mead gave an optimum point of [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:9;0:4] and Basin-Hopping gave an optimum value of x* = [z* 0 ;A*] = [9:2;0:1].

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗

ROOT RNTuple and EOS: The Next Generation of Event Data I/O

For several years, the ROOT team is developing the new RNTuple I/O subsystem in preparation of the next generation of collider experiments. Both HL-LHC and DUNE are expected to start data taking by the end of this decade. They pose unprecedented challenges to event data I/O in terms of data rates, event sizes, and event complexity. At the same time, the I/O landscape is becoming more diverse. HPC cluster file systems and object stores, NVMe disk cache layers in analysis facilities, and S3 storage on cloud resources are mixing with traditional XRootD-managed spinning disk pools.The ROOT team will finalize a first production version of the RNTuple binary format by the end of 2024. After this point, ROOT will provide backward compatibility for RNTuple data. This contribution provides an overview of the RNTuple feature set, the related R&D activities and the long-term vision for RNTuple. We report on performance, interface design, tooling, robustness, integration with experiment frameworks, and validation results, as well as recent R&D on parallel reading and writing and exploitation of modern hardware and storage systems. We will give an outlook on possible future features after a first production release.Collaboratively, the IT and EP departments at CERN have launched a formal project within the Research and Computing sector to evaluate the novel data format for physics analysis data utilized in LHC experiments and other fields. This part of the project focuses on validating the scalability of the EOS storage backend during the transition from the over 25 years old TTree production format to the newly developed RNTuple format, using both replicated and erasure-coded storage profiles.

Blomer, Jakob [CERN]↗

Multiscale Characterization of Photovoltaic Modules—Case Studies of Contact and Interconnect Degradation

The current popularity of photovoltaic (PV) systems is due in large part to their exceptional reliability and significantly lower cost than other energy sources. Studying cell and module degradation is key to promote further development in the state of the art. Fielded or accelerated aged modules exhibit different failure modes, of which metallization degradation (contacts and interconnections) is prevalent. In this work, we discuss how multiscale characterization methods can be applied to a variety of module technologies that have been field exposed and have undergone accelerated age testing. These methods include performing characterization on the module level, cell level, and finally the materials level. The observed performance losses from the module- and cell-level characterization can be correlated with materials properties to find out the root cause of degradation. We recommend an initial nondestructive characterization suite, including module- and cell-level current-voltage ( I--V ), Suns-V OC , photoluminescence and electroluminescence imaging, quantum efficiency, ultraviolet fluorescence imaging, and thermal infrared imaging. Samples are then extracted from particularly degraded regions of the module and prepared for materials characterization techniques, such as top-down and cross-sectional scanning electron microscopy, energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy, X-ray photoelectron spectroscopy, secondary ion mass spectrometry, Raman spectroscopy, and transmission electron microscopy, allowing a deeper look into the mechanism behind the metallization degradation. This article serves as an instructional review to introduce the different multiscale characterization methods and how they can be effectively applied to perform PV degradation studies. Furthermore, we also share some of our examples and discuss the strengths, limitations, and best practices for each of the characterization techniques.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Genomes to Structure and Function Workshop Report 2022

The goal of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Biological and Environmental Research (BER) Program is to achieve a predictive understanding of complex biological, earth, and environmental systems with the aim of advancing the nation’s energy and infrastructure security. (https://www.energy.gov/science/ ber/biological-and-environmental-research). To pursue this goal, collaborations among experts in diverse research areas that lead to multidisciplinary projects are indispensable. The roles of DOE’s User Facilities, which offer unique and powerful resources for such research projects, are evolving, and expectations for the facilities are increasing. To respond to Users’ needs, the Joint Genome Institute (JGI) and Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL) initiated the Facilities Integrating Collaborations for User Science (FICUS) program in 2014. This collaboration has grown into a popular and successful program, advancing more than 100 multidisciplinary projects to date. Similarly, the new interFacility collaborations among the JGI, EMSL, and User resources for BER structural biology and imaging at the Basic Energy Science (BES) Program’s synchrotron and neutron facilities are becoming essential for cutting-edge transdisciplinary science. To further explore the need for the BER research community to combine genomic, functional, and structural approaches to advance their research, an organizing committee was formed to develop and jointly host a 3-part workshop. The committee’s members represented seven DOE National Laboratory User Facilities (Appendix 1 lists the members). The “Genomes to Structure and Function” virtual workshop (see Appendices 2–5) was composed of three sessions. The first session, titled “Molecular Structures” (October 27– 28, 2021), highlighted diverse integrative experimental and computational approaches correlating structural data with sequencing and functional information, as well as predicting protein structures to model complex biological systems. The second session, “Intracellular Organization, and Material Synthesis and Decomposition” (December 15–16, 2021), covered imaging methods for observing, quantifying, and manipulating biosystems. The third session, “Imaging the Rhizosphere and Cellular Organization” (January 26–27, 2022) emphasized advanced and non-invasive imaging techniques applied to plant root-microbe-soil interactions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Treatments with Liquid Smoke and Certain Chemical Constituents Prevalent in Smoke Reduce Phloem Vascular Sectoriality in the Sunflower with Improvement to Growth

Many higher plants possess a physiological organization that is based upon the carbon economy of their parts. While photosynthates are partitioned according to the relative strength of the plant’s sink tissues, in many species there is also a very close relationship between partitioning, phyllotaxy and vascular connectivity giving rise to sectorial patterns of allocation. Here, we examined the influence of smoke and certain chemical constituents prevalent in smoke including, catechol, resorcinol and hydroquinone on phloem vascular sectoriality in common sunflower (Helianthis annuus L.), as a model plant for sectoriality. By administering radioactive carbon-11 to a single source leaf as 11CO2, 11C-photosynthate allocation patterns were examined using autoradiography. A 1:200 aqueous dilution of liquid smoke treated soil caused 2.6-fold and 2.5-fold reductions in phloem sectoriality in sink leaves and roots, respectively. Treatment with catechol (1,2-d ihydroxybenzene) or resorcinol (1,3-dihydroxybenzene), polyphenolic constituents that are prevalent in smoke, caused similar reductions in phloem sectoriality in the same targeted sink tissues. However, treatment with hydroquinone (1,4-dihydroxybenzene) had no effect. Finally, the longer-term effects of smoke exposure on plant growth and performance were examined using outdoor potted plants grown over the 2022 season. Plants exposed to liquid smoke treatments of the soil on a weekly basis had larger thicker leaves possessing 35% greater lignin content than untreated control plants. They also had thicker stems although the lignin content was the same as controls. Additionally, plants exposed to treatment produced twice the number of flowers with no difference in their disk floret diameters as untreated controls. Altogether, loss of phloem sectoriality from exposure to liquid smoke in the sunflower model benefited plant performance.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Final Scientific/Technical Report-FREE-piston Zero Emissions Refrigerator (FREEZER)

The FREE-piston Zero Emissions Refrigerator (FREEZER™) is a natural refrigerant Stirling-cycle cooler developed by AMSC in partnership with Heatcraft, targeted as a replacement refrigeration system for walk-in coolers or freezers found commonly in restaurants, convenience stores, supermarkets, etc. The FREEZER™, combined with a closed-loop CO2 heat-transfer system, had the goal to provides an efficient (Target COP = 1.4), zero ODP (Ozone Depletion Potential) and near zero GWP (Global Warming Potential) refrigeration solution with no synthetic, flammable, or toxic refrigerants. Other near zero GWP refrigeration systems do not exist at the scale and performance level of FREEZER. ARPA-E Continuation Funding enabled the design and fabrication of one Advanced Development Unit (ADU) cooler and two Field Test Unit (FTU) coolers, and a new revised Field Test Unit (new FTU). Heatcraft was to extensively test the various coolers at their facilities, which closely simulate real-world conditions. The original plan was to install and operate FREEZER FTUs alongside a traditional cooling solution at one or more customer locations to obtain data on direct performance comparisons with existing commercial refrigeration systems. Success in this FREEZER refinement and field-test project will establish the basis for a new class of environmentally friendly refrigeration systems that will revolutionize the industry. The hardware developed under the program is shown below in Figure 1. Five Stirling-cycle machines were built within the program, with a sixth cooler still under construction. The original DU and the ADU coolers met the performance target with a coefficient of performance (COP) of 1.2. The FTU was underperforming during the initial tuning of the free-piston Stirling cycle dynamics when there was a catastrophic failure of the fasteners on pressure boundary. This caused a pause to the program while the failure mechanism was investigated. The root cause was an inadequate flange design that allowed an excessive cyclic loading on the fasteners, leading to a fatigue failure. It was determined that existing FTU design could not be reasonably salvaged in a safe manner, and that fact, combined with the lower-than-expected performance of the new experimental heat exchanger modules lead to the design of the “new FTU” with a more conventional shell-and-tube heat exchanger design which should get close to the design target COP of 1.4, but have a higher overall machine cost. The program ran out of time before the fabrication of the new FTU was completed, but AMSC is still working on the cooler, with the majority of the parts fabricated, and hopes to have the unit under test sometime in early 2022, after which it will be shipped to Heatcraft for additional testing.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Probabilistic Day-Ahead Forecasting Using an Analog Ensemble Approach for Wind Farm Grid Services

Wind resource assessment and wind power forecasting are used in research and industry to anticipate future power output at scales ranging from individual wind turbines to entire wind farms. Probabilistic day-ahead wind forecasting is useful for anticipating how a wind farm could potentially participate in the day-ahead market by providing upper and lower bounds for expected power generation, thus informing grid operators of its uncertainty. Understanding this uncertainty is part of a larger project focused on building a platform that combines efforts in weather forecasting, aerodynamic and economic modeling to create maximum value of a wind plant to better provide services to the grid. This effort is also known as the Atmosphere to Electrons to Grid (A2E2G) project. One method for producing a probabilistic forecast is through the analog ensemble approach (Delle Monache et al., 2011). This method leverages historical forecasts and their corresponding observations as a training data set from which future forecasts can be made. For some future forecast, the most similar historical forecasts (analogs) are identified on a regular time basis such as once per a 3-hour window. The most similar analogs, based on a metric such as root mean square error (RMSE), are recorded and their corresponding verifying observations are used as an ensemble member for this future forecast. Prior work in this area demonstrates improvements over raw Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) forecasts and shows skill similar to techniques such as logistic regression and machine learning (Delle Monache et al., 2013; Alessandrini et al., 2015). Here, we take the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh model (HRRR) day-ahead forecast (0-36 hours) to create a probabilistic day-ahead forecast using an analog ensemble approach. The HRRR has an hourly temporal resolution, with a spatial resolution of 3 km. The 12 UTC HRRR model run is downloaded every day for one year from August 2019 - July 2020, with the first 11 months serving as a bank of analogs from which the forecasting algorithm can create a probabilistic forecast. Once downloaded, the original HRRR forecast is temporally interpolated to 5-minutes, aligning with both the temporal resolution of the observations as well as the timescale relevant for day-ahead power forecasts. The forecast is validated at the M2 tower at the Flatirons Campus of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) at a typical wind turbine height of 80 m. Variables such as wind speed, wind direction, and turbulence intensity are incorporated into the probabilistic forecast model and weighted according to their relative importance to the forecast. Based on metrics such as mean bias error (MBE), mean absolute error (MAE), and root mean square error, the analog ensemble forecast outperforms the raw HRRR forecast during the testing period of July 2020. Figure 1 illustrates an example day-ahead forecast compared against the verifying observations. The general variability and ramps are captured throughout the day, with potential to further improve the analog ensemble model through machine learning techniques.

numerical weather prediction↗

Assessing uncertainty in the timing of energy use during cost-optimal distributed energy technology selection and sizing

This paper empirically derives uncertainty ranges in cost-optimal solar PV and storage sizing by comparing results from the REopt Lite optimization platform from metered data and a set of simulated Department of Energy Commercial Reference Building (CRB) profiles at 65 sites. We find load profile shape alone does not explain a site’s optimal configurations (i.e., PV, Storage, PV and Storage, No System). Still, load profile shape does introduce uncertainty to optimal PV and storage capacities. Across all cases where PV is part of an optimal configuration, we find the average ratio of power capacities derived from metered loads to capacities derived from CRB profiles to be 0.97 (and as high as 1463), where 1 would be a perfect match in system size. For storage, the ratio is 1.6 (and as high as 42). We also assess how, in the absence of complete metered data, a CRB profile can be selected that would be expected to yield the most similar solar PV and storage capacities. From those metrics that can be available from billing data (i.e., peak demand, monthly load totals), we find that uncertainty is most reduced by selecting the CRB’s with an annual peak occurring at the most similar time, or those with the lowest average root mean square error (RMSE) among monthly peak loads. This research can help improve the implementation and interpretation of results derived from simulated load profiles and is an important next step in advancing smart grid solutions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Virocell Necromass Provides Limited Plant Nitrogen and Elicits Rhizosphere Metabolites That Affect Phage Dynamics

Bacteriophages impact soil bacteria through lysis, altering the availability of organic carbon and plant nutrients. However, the magnitude of nutrient uptake by plants from lysed bacteria remains unknown, partly because this process is challenging to investigate in the field. In this study, we extend ecosystem fabrication (EcoFAB 2.0) approaches to study plant-bacteria-phage interactions by comparing the impact of virocell (phage-lysed) and uninfected 15 N-labelled bacterial necromass on plant nitrogen acquisition and rhizosphere exometabolites composition. We show that grass Brachypodium distachyon derives some nitrogen from amino acids in uninfected Pseudomonas putida necromass lysed by sonication but not from virocell necromass. Additionally, the bacterial necromass elicits the formation of rhizosphere exometabolites, some of which (guanosine), alongside tested aromatic acids ( p -coumaric and benzoic acid), show bacterium-specific effects on bacteriophage-induced lysis when tested in vitro. The study highlights the dynamic feedback between virocell necromass and plants and suggests that root exudate metabolites can impact bacteriophage infection dynamics.

Brachypodium↗