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At least 163 records · Page 9

An algorithm for the Italian atomic time scale

During the past twenty years, the time scale at the IEN has been realized by a commercial cesium clock, selected from an ensemble of five, whose rate has been continuously steered towards UTC to maintain a long term agreement within 3 x 10(exp -13). A time scale algorithm, suitable for a small clock ensemble and capable of improving the medium and long term stability of the IEN time scale, has been recently designed taking care of reducing the effects of the seasonal variations and the sudden frequency anomalies of the single cesium clocks. The new time scale, TA(IEN), is obtained as a weighted average of the clock ensemble computed once a day from the time comparisons between the local reference UTC(IEN) and the single clocks. It is foreseen to include in the computation also ten cesium clocks maintained in other Italian laboratories to further improve its reliability and its long term stability. To implement this algorithm, a personal computer program in Quick Basic has been prepared and it has been tested at the IEN time and frequency laboratory. Results obtained using this algorithm on the real clocks data relative to a period of about two years are presented.

Cordara, F.↗

Combining resonant and tail-based anomaly detection

In many well-motivated models of the electroweak scale, cascade decays of new particles can result in highly boosted hadronic resonances (e.g., Z / W / h ). This can make these models rich and promising targets for recently developed resonant anomaly detection methods powered by modern machine learning. We demonstrate this using the state-of-the-art classifying anomalies through outer density estimation () method applied to supersymmetry scenarios with gluino pair production. We show that , despite being model agnostic, is nevertheless competitive with dedicated cut-based searches, while simultaneously covering a much wider region of parameter space. The gluino events also populate the tails of the missing energy and H T distributions, making this a novel combination of resonant and tail-based anomaly detection. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

Large-scale cyclogenesis

The development of several major cases of persistent negative height anomalies over the extratropical central North Pacific and eastern North Atlantic regions was investigated. These events were manifested at the surface by the development of large-scale cyclonic circulations and, at upper levels, by the formation of anomalously intense zonal jets. The data for the analyses were obtained from the twice-daily NMC final analyses of Northern Hemisphere sea-level pressure as well as geopotential heights, winds, and temperatures at all standard levels from 1000 mb to 100 mb for the fourteen winter seasons from years 1963-1964 through 1976-1977. The results indicate that, in many cases of cyclogenesis, baroclinic processes are likely to play an important role in the initial developments. At later stages, barotropic processes also provide significant contributions and play a role in the maintenance of the anomalies once they are established.

Dole, Randall M.↗

Applications of Data Assimilation to Analysis of the Ocean on Large Scales

It is commonplace to begin talks on this topic by noting that oceanographic data are too scarce and sparse to provide complete initial and boundary conditions for large-scale ocean models. Even considering the availability of remotely-sensed data such as radar altimetry from the TOPEX and ERS-1 satellites, a glance at a map of available subsurface data should convince most observers that this is still the case. Data are still too sparse for comprehensive treatment of interannual to interdecadal climate change through the use of models, since the new data sets have not been around for very long. In view of the dearth of data, we must note that the overall picture is changing rapidly. Recently, there have been a number of large scale ocean analysis and prediction efforts, some of which now run on an operational or at least quasi-operational basis, most notably the model based analyses of the tropical oceans. These programs are modeled on numerical weather prediction. Aside from the success of the global tide models, assimilation of data in the tropics, in support of prediction and analysis of seasonal to interannual climate change, is probably the area of large scale ocean modeling and data assimilation in which the most progress has been made. Climate change is a problem which is particularly suited to advanced data assimilation methods. Linear models are useful, and the linear theory can be exploited. For the most part, the data are sufficiently sparse that implementation of advanced methods is worthwhile. As an example of a large scale data assimilation experiment with a recent extensive data set, we present results of a tropical ocean experiment in which the Kalman filter was used to assimilate three years of altimetric data from Geosat into a coarsely resolved linearized long wave shallow water model. Since nonlinear processes dominate the local dynamic signal outside the tropics, subsurface dynamical quantities cannot be reliably inferred from surface height anomalies. Because of its potential for large scale synoptic coverage of the deep ocean, acoustic travel time data should be a natural complement to satellite altimetry. Satellite data give us vertical integrals associated with thermodynamic and dynamic processes.

Miller, Robert N.↗

Thermal surveillance of active volcanoes

The author has identified the following significant results. By the end of 1973, aerial infrared scanner traverses for thermal anomaly recordings of all Cascade Range volcanoes were essentially completed. Amplitude level slices of the Mount Baker anomalies were completed and compiled at a scale of 1:24,000, thus producing, for the first time, an accurate map of the distribution and intensity of thermal activity on Mount Baker. The major thermal activity is concentrated within the crater south of the main summit and although it is characterized by intensive solfataric activity and warm ground, it is largely subglacial, causing the development of sizable glacier perforation features. The outgoing radiative flux from the east breach anomalies is sufficient to account for the volume of ice melted to form the glacier perforations. DCP station 6251 has been monitoring a thermally anomalous area on the north slope of Mount Baker. The present thermal activity of Mount Baker accounts for continuing hydrothermal alteration in the crater south of the main summit and recurrent debris avalanches from Sherman Peak on its south rim. The infrared anomalies mapped as part of the experiment SR 251 are considered the basic evidence of the subglacial heating which was the probable triggering mechanism of an avalanche down Boulder Glacier on August 20-21, 1973.

Friedman, J. D.↗

An Assessment of the Impact of the 1997-98 El Nino on the Asian-Australian Monsoon

Using state-of-the-art satellite-gauge monthly rainfall estimate and optimally interpolated sea surface temperature (SST) data, we have assessed the 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies in terms of three basic causal factors: basin-scale SST, regional coupling, and internal variability. Singular Value Decomposition analyses of rainfall and SST are carried out globally over the entire tropics and regionally over the AA-monsoon domain. Contributions to monsoon rainfall predictability by various factors are evaluated from cumulative anomaly correlation with dominant regional SVD modes. Results reveal a dominant, large-scale monsoon-El Nino coupled mode with well-defined centers of action in the near-equatorial monsoon regions during the boreal summer and winter respectively. The observed 1997-98 AA-monsoon anomalies are found to be very complex with approximately 34% of the anomalies of the Asian (boreal) summer monsoon and 74% of the Australia (austral) monsoon attributable to basin-scale SST influence associated with El Nino. Regional coupled processes contribute an additional 19% and 10%, leaving about 47% and 16% due to internal dynamics for the boreal and austral monsoon respectively. For the boreal summer monsoon, it is noted that the highest monsoon predictability is not necessary associated with major El Nino events (e.g. 1997, 1982) but rather in non-El Nino years (e.g. 1980, 1988) when contributions from the regional coupled modes far exceed those from the basin-scale SST. The results suggest that in order to improve monsoon seasonal-to-interannual predictability, there is a need to exploit not only monsoon-El Nino relationship, but also intrinsic monsoon regional coupled processes.

Lau, K.-M.↗

Capturing Complex Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High-Risk Adverse Events During Flight

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Capturing Multivariate Time Series Interactions to Detect High‑Risk Instability During Approach

The reduction of aviation safety metrics below target thresholds continue to drive down the number of aviation fatalities and accidents. To meet future safety demands, sustained efforts by aviation agencies promoting safety assurance processes and systems have prompted ongoing research on identifying and mitigating in-flight risks. With the projected increase in passenger load factor and rollout of more autonomous systems into the national airspace, the need to detect high-risk events in-time or ahead-of-time is becoming increasingly crucial. New anomaly detection and precursor identification algorithms will need to scale to different airframes, levels of autonomy, and system complexity. While the pervasiveness of deep learning has resulted in the development of performant anomaly detection methods, these sophisticated models currently suffer from low end-user interpretability. Building off our previous work on identifying adverse events in multivariate flight data during descent, we propose a data-driven approach for detecting in-flight adverse events caused by the complex interplay of flight variables. Our approach utilizes ordinal patterns of important aircraft stability variables (e.g., airspeed and descent rate) to capture multivariate flight dynamics that can be used to predict the onset of unstable approaches, a high-risk adverse event that can occur during approach. Through the use of ordinal patterns, we aim to create more interpretable detection models of in-flight adverse events that can be translated to future autonomous systems without difficulty. Our analysis shows the presence of distinct ordinal pattern distributions that can be used to predict unstable approaches 1 minute ahead of time with an accuracy of 0.69 and a recall of 0.73 and 30 seconds ahead with an accuracy of 0.70 and a recall of 0.86.

Risk detection↗

Discovering System Health Anomalies Using Data Mining Techniques

We present a data mining framework for the analysis and discovery of anomalies in high-dimensional time series of sensor measurements that would be found in an Integrated System Health Monitoring system. We specifically treat the problem of discovering anomalous features in the time series that may be indicative of a system anomaly, or in the case of a manned system, an anomaly due to the human. Identification of these anomalies is crucial to building stable, reusable, and cost-efficient systems. The framework consists of an analysis platform and new algorithms that can scale to thousands of sensor streams to discovers temporal anomalies. We discuss the mathematical framework that underlies the system and also describe in detail how this framework is general enough to encompass both discrete and continuous sensor measurements. We also describe a new set of data mining algorithms based on kernel methods and hidden Markov models that allow for the rapid assimilation, analysis, and discovery of system anomalies. We then describe the performance of the system on a real-world problem in the aircraft domain where we analyze the cockpit data from aircraft as well as data from the aircraft propulsion, control, and guidance systems. These data are discrete and continuous sensor measurements and are dealt with seamlessly in order to discover anomalous flights. We conclude with recommendations that describe the tradeoffs in building an integrated scalable platform for robust anomaly detection in ISHM applications.

Sriastava, Ashok, N.↗

Presolar Organic Globules in Tagish Lake Meteorite, and other Astromaterials

Presolar grains were identified in meteorite residues 20 years ago based on their exotic isotopic compositions. Their study has provide new insights into stellar evolution and the first view of the original building blocks of the solar system. Organic matter in meteorites and IDPs is highly enriched in D/H and N-15/N-14 at micrometer scales, possibly due to presolar organic grains. These anomalies are ascribed to the partial preservation of presolar cold molecular cloud material. Identifying the carriers of these anomalies and elucidating their physical and chemical properties may give new views of interstellar chemistry and better understanding of the original components of the protosolar disk. However, identifying the carriers has been hampered by their small size and the inability to chemically isolate them. Thanks to immediate careful collection of Tagish Lake meteorite specimen, as well as major advances in nano-scale analytical techniques and advanced sample preparation, we were able to show that in the Tagish Lake meteorite, the principle carriers of these isotopic anomalies are sub-micrometer, hollow organic globules. The organic globules likely formed by photochemical processing of organic ices in a cold molecular cloud or the outermost regions of the protosolar disk. Organic globules with similar physical, chemical, and isotopic properties are also recently found from Bells CM2 carbonaceous chondrite, in IDPs and in the comet Wild-2 samples returned by Stardust. These results support the view that microscopic organic grains were widespread constituents of the protoplanetary disk. Their exotic isotopic compositions trace their origins to the outermost portions of the protosolar disk or a presolar cold molecular cloud.

Nakamura-Messenger, K.↗

The delineation and interpretation of the Earth's gravity field

The geoid and topographic fields of the central Pacific were delineated and shown to correlate closely at intermediate wavelengths (500 to 2500 km). The associated admittance shows that anomalies having wavelengths less than about 1000 km are probably supported by the elastic strength of the lithosphere. Larger wavelength anomalies are due to dynamic effects in the sublithosphere. Direct modeling of small scale convection in the asthenosphere shows that the amplitudes of observed geoid and topographic anomalies can be independently matched, but that the observed admittance cannot. Only by imposing an initial regional variation in the thermal regime is it possible to match the admittance. It is proposed that this variation may be due to differences in the onset time of convection beneath the lithosphere of different ages. That is, convection beneath thickening lithosphere is strongly dependent on the rate of thickening (V) relative to the rise time for convection. The critical Rayleigh number contains the length scale K/V, where K is thermal diffusivity. Young, fast growing lithosphere stabilizes the underlying asthenosphere unless it has an unusually low viscosity. Lithosphere of different age, separated by fracture zones, will go unstable at different times, producing regional horizontal temperature gradient that may strongly influence convection. Laboratory and numerical experiments are proposed to study this form of convection and its influence on the geoid.

Marsh, Bruce D.↗

The use of LinkWinds for the validation and analysis of 14 years of Microwave Sounder Unit daily global temperature anomaly data

Temperature data derived from the Microwave Sounder Unit (MSU) provides an opportunity for investigating atmospheric temperatures on a global scale since 1979. Fourteen years of global data sets of daily temperature anomalies within the lower stratosphere and lower troposphere are being generated at NASA Marshall Space Flight Center. LinkWinds, a visualization/analysis package under development at NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory, has been extremely useful for validating and analyzing these data sets. LinkWinds provides the ability to interactively scroll and animate through the 10,220 images of temporal data, to selectively slice and view the data along latitude, longitude, or temporal axes, to interactively analyze spatial and temporal variability within the data, and to perform correlative analysis between various elements of the data. These capabilities have been invaluable in allowing the recognition of processing artifacts, as well as the effects that physical phenomena, such as the El Ninos effects and the Mt. Pinatubo eruption, have had on atmospheric temperatures.

Botts, Michael E.↗

Dynamic compensation in the central Pacific Ocean

The intermediate-wavelength geoid (lambda similar to 2000 km) and sea-floor topography fields in the central Pacific Ocean were studied in terms of static and dynamic compensation models. Topographic features on the sea-floor with lambda less than 1000 km were found to be compensated both regionally, by the elastic strength of the lithosphere, and locally, by displacing mantle material to reach isostatic adjustment. The larger-scale sea-floor topography and the corresponding geoid anomalies with lambda similar to 2000 km cannot be explained by either local or regional compensation. The topography and the resulting geoid anomaly at this wavelength were modeled by considering the dynamic effects arising from viscous stresses in a layer of fluid with a highly temperature-dependent viscosity for the cases of: (1) surface cooling, and (2) basal heating. In this model, the mechanical properties of the elastic part of the lithosphere were taken into account by considering an activation energy of about 520 kJ/mol in the Arrhenius law for the viscosity. Numerical predictions of the topography, total geoid anomaly, and admittance were obtained, and the results show that the thermal perturbation in the layer, which accounts for the mass deficit, must be located close to the surface to compensate the gravitational effect of the surface deformation. For the case of basal heating, the temperature dependence of viscosity results in a separation of the upper, quasi-rigid lid from the lower mobile fluid, hence inhibiting the development of a compensating thermal perturbation at shallow depths. The results clearly rule out small-scale, upper-mantle convection as the source of these anomalies. Instead, the geophysical observables can be well explained by a shallow, transient thermal perturbation.

Hinojosa, Juan Homero↗

Enhanced Graphics for Extended Scale Range

Enhanced Graphics for Extended Scale Range is a computer program for rendering fly-through views of scene models that include visible objects differing in size by large orders of magnitude. An example would be a scene showing a person in a park at night with the moon, stars, and galaxies in the background sky. Prior graphical computer programs exhibit arithmetic and other anomalies when rendering scenes containing objects that differ enormously in scale and distance from the viewer. The present program dynamically repartitions distance scales of objects in a scene during rendering to eliminate almost all such anomalies in a way compatible with implementation in other software and in hardware accelerators. By assigning depth ranges correspond ing to rendering precision requirements, either automatically or under program control, this program spaces out object scales to match the precision requirements of the rendering arithmetic. This action includes an intelligent partition of the depth buffer ranges to avoid known anomalies from this source. The program is written in C++, using OpenGL, GLUT, and GLUI standard libraries, and nVidia GEForce Vertex Shader extensions. The program has been shown to work on several computers running UNIX and Windows operating systems.

Hanson, Andrew J.↗

Impact phenomena as factors in the evolution of the Earth

It is estimated that 30 to 200 large impact basins could have been formed on the early Earth. These large impacts may have resulted in extensive volcanism and enhanced endogenic geologic activity over large areas. Initial modelling of the thermal and subsidence history of large terrestrial basins indicates that they created geologic and thermal anomalies which lasted for geologically significant times. The role of large-scale impact in the biological evolution of the Earth has been highlighted by the discovery of siderophile anomalies at the Cretaceous-Tertiary boundary and associated with North American microtektites. Although in neither case has an associated crater been identified, the observations are consistent with the deposition of projectile-contaminated high-speed ejecta from major impact events. Consideration of impact processes reveals a number of mechanisms by which large-scale impact may induce extinctions.

Grieve, R. A. F.↗

A Downscaling Analysis of the Urban Influence on Rainfall: TRMM Satellite Component AMS Conference on Satellite Meteorology and Oceanography

A recent publication by Shepherd et al. (2002) demonstrated the feasibility of using TRMM precipitation radar (PR) estimates to identify precipitation anomalies caused by urbanization. The approach is particularly useful for investigating this global process because TRMM data span large portions of the globe and comprise an extended temporal dataset. Recent literature suggests that urbanized regions of Houston, Texas may be influencing lightning and precipitation formation over and downwind of the city. Possible mechanisms include: (1) enhanced convergence through interactions between the sea breeze, Galveston bay breeze, and urban heat island circulations, (2) enhanced convergence due to increased surface roughness over the city and/or destabilization of the boundary layer by the UHI, or (3) enhanced cloud condensation nuclei due to urban and industrial aerosol sources. In this study, a downscaling analysis of spatial and temporal trends in rainfall around the Houston Area is being conducted. The downscaling analysis concept involves identifying and quantifying urban rainfall anomalies at progressively smaller spatial and temporal scales using the TRMM satellite, ground-based radar, and a dense network of rain gauges. The goal is to test the hypothesis that the Houston urban district and regions in the climatological downwind region of the city exhibit enhanced rainfall amounts relative to the climatological upwind regions. TRMM was launched in 1997 and currently operates in a low-inclination (35 deg), non-sun-synchronous orbit at an altitude of 402 km (350 km prior to August 2001). The satellite analysis follows the methodologies described in Shepherd et al. (2002). Nearly five years of TRMM PR-derived mean monthly rainfall estimates are utilized to produce annual and warm season isohyetal analyses around Houston. Early results indicate that rainfall rates (mm/h) for the entire period are largest within 100 km northeast and east of Houston (e.g. the "hypothesized downwind region"). The mean rainfall rate over the Houston urban center is 30.5% larger than the upwind control region. The mean rainfall rate in the downwind region is 34.4% larger than the upwind region. An analysis of a parameter called the urban rainfall ratio (URR) illustrates that 65% (88%) of the satellite-derived rainfall rates in the downwind (upwind control) region are greater (less) than the mean background rainfall rate of the entire study region. When the data is stratified by summer months from 1998 to 2001 (June-August), even greater influence over and downwind of the urban area is observed in the statistics. This result is consistent with published reports of urban-generated rainfall being more prevalent in the warm season. The research demonstrates that the evolving TRMM satellite climatology is a credible way to detect mesoscale precipitation signatures that may be linked to urbanization. Early results also corroborate recent findings on Houston-induced convection/drainfall anomalies. Burian and Shepherd will report on other aspects of the downscaling analysis in future forums, but early rain gauge results are consistent with the satellite-based observations.

Shepherd, J. Marshall↗

Crustal Magnetic Fields

Cosmos 49, Polar Orbit Geophysical Observatory (POGO) (Orbiting Geophysical Observatory (OGO-2, 4 and 6)) and Magsat have been the only low-earth orbiting satellites to measure the crustal magnetic field on a global scale. These missions revealed the presence of long- wavelength (> 500 km) crustal anomalies predominantly located over continents. Ground based methods were, for the most part, unable to record these very large-scale features; no doubt due to the problems of assembling continental scale maps from numerous smaller surveys acquired over many years. Questions arose as to the source and nature of these long-wave length anomalies. As a result there was a great stimulant given to the study of the magnetic properties of the lower crust and upper mantle. Some indication as to the nature of these deep sources has been provided by the recent results from the deep crustal drilling programs. In addition, the mechanism of magnetization, induced or remanent, was largely unknown. For computational ease these anomalies were considered to result solely from induced magnetization. However, recent results from Mars Orbiter Laser Altimeter (MOLA), a magnetometer-bearing mission to Mars, have revealed crustal anomalies with dimensions similar to the largest anomalies on Earth. These Martian features could only have been produced by remanent magnetization, since Mars lacks an inducing field. The origin of long-wavelength crustal anomalies, however, has not been completely determined. Several large crustal magnetic anomalies (e.g., Bangui, Kursk, Kiruna and Central Europe) will be discussed and the role of future satellite magnetometer missions (Orsted, SUNSAT and Champ) in their interpretation evaluated.

Taylor, Patrick T.↗

A numerical model study of long-term planetary wave predictability

A numerical model was developed to study planetary wave behavior over periods up to 4 months under the influences of stochastic and diffusive forcing by synoptic scale motions and of sea surface temperature anomalies. The model is suitable for Monte Carlo experiments which provide ensemble mean and variance predictions and permit the response to heating anomalies to be partly separated from random variability. The model incorporates the linear-balanced dynamical equations for wind at two tropospheric levels and temperature at one level. The model atmosphere is forced by semiempirical January heating linearly dependent on local air temperature. Topography and the lower boundary layer are represented by vertical motion and drag functions, respectively, of the lower level wind. The linear phase speeds of Rossby waves are modified to reflect the effect of the stratosphere.

Wobus, R. L.↗