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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Co-simulation of transactive energy markets: A framework for market testing and evaluation

The proliferation of distributed energy resources (DER)—and the ability to intelligently control these assets—is re-defining the electrical distribution system. As the number of controllable devices rapidly expands, grid operators must determine how to incorporate these assets while delivering reliable, equitable, and affordable electricity. One possible approach is to establish distribution-level electricity markets and allow devices/aggregations of devices to participate in price establishment. While this approach purports some of the same benefits as the highly successful wholesale electricity markets (i.e., open competition, efficient price discovery, reduced communication overhead), this needs to be researched and quantified via an analysis platform that models distribution-level markets at the appropriate fidelity. Specifically, the simultaneous evaluation of market performance, DER performance, DER bidding approaches, and distribution feeder power quality requires modeling that spans multiple technical areas. Co-simulation has emerged as a powerful tool in addressing this type of problem, where outputs depend on a range of underlying areas of expertise and associated models. In this paper we describe a solution, as implemented in the HELICS co-simulation platform, where we include (1) high fidelity house models, (2) intelligent bidding agents, (3) a modular market integration/design, and (4) a distribution feeder model. We then present a case study where we test two different market designs: (1) a pseudo-wholesale double-blind auction, and (2) an asynchronous matching market. In this work, the markets are run under two DER penetration levels and economic results are compared to full retail net energy metering and avoided cost net metering scenarios that bookend current approaches to remuneration of DER participation. We show the potential for transactive markets to provide increased value for most customers relative to net metering (and all customers relative to avoided cost scenarios) while decreasing costs for the utility.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

ASASSN-14ko is a Periodic Nuclear Transient in ESO 253-G003

We present the discovery that ASASSN-14ko is a periodically flaring active galactic nucleus at the center of the galaxy ESO 253-G003. At the time of its discovery by the All-Sky Automated Survey for Supernovae (ASAS-SN), it was classified as a supernova close to the nucleus. The subsequent 6 yr of V - and g -band ASAS-SN observations revealed that ASASSN-14ko has nuclear flares occurring at regular intervals. The 17 observed outbursts show evidence of a decreasing period over time, with a mean period of P 0 = 114.2 ± 0.4 days and a period derivative of . The most recent outburst in 2020 May, which took place as predicted, exhibited spectroscopic changes during the rise and had a UV bright, blackbody spectral energy distribution similar to tidal disruption events (TDEs). The X-ray flux decreased by a factor of 4 at the beginning of the outburst and then returned to its quiescent flux after ~8 days. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite observed an outburst during Sectors 4–6, revealing a rise time of 5.60 ± 0.05 days in the optical and a decline that is best fit with an exponential model. We discuss several possible scenarios to explain ASASSN-14ko’s periodic outbursts, but currently favor a repeated partial TDE. The next outbursts should peak in the optical on UT 2020 September 7.4±1.1 and UT 2020 December 26.5±1.4.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2022

The Arecibo Galaxy Environment Survey. XII. Optically Dark H i Clouds in the Leo I Group

Using data from the Arecibo Galaxy Environment Survey, we report the discovery of five H i clouds in the Leo I group without detected optical counterparts. Three of the clouds are found midway between M96 and M95, one is only from the southeast side of the well-known Leo Ring, and the fifth is relatively isolated. H i masses range from 2.6 × 10 6 M ⊙ to 9.0 × 10 6 M ⊙ , and velocity widths (W50) range from 16 to 42 km s -1 . Although a tidal origin is the most obvious explanation, this formation mechanism faces several challenges. For the most isolated cloud, the difficulties are its distance from neighboring galaxies and the lack of any signs of disturbance in the H i disks of those systems. Some of the clouds also appear to follow the baryonic Tully–Fisher relation between mass and velocity width for normal, stable galaxies, which is not expected if they are tidal in origin. Three clouds are found between M96 and M95 that have no optical counterparts but have otherwise similar properties and locations to the optically detected galaxy LeG 13. While overall we favor a tidal debris scenario to explain the clouds, we cannot rule out a primordial origin. If the clouds were produced in the same event that gave rise to the Leo Ring, they may provide important constraints on any model attempting to explain that structure.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Scalable Hybrid Learning Techniques for Scientific Data Compression

Data compression is becoming critical for storing scientific data because many scientific applications need to store large amounts of data and post process this data for scientific discovery. Unlike image and video compression algorithms that limit errors to primary data (PD), scientists require compression techniques that accurately preserve derived quantities of interest (QoIs). Here, this article presents a physics-informed compression technique implemented as an end-to-end, scalable, GPU-based pipeline for data compression that addresses this requirement. Our hybrid compression technique combines machine learning techniques and standard compression methods. Specifically, we combine an autoencoder, an error-bounded lossy compressor to provide guarantees on raw data error, and a constraint satisfaction post-processing step to preserve the QoIs within a minimal error (generally less than floating point error). The effectiveness of the data compression pipeline is demonstrated by compressing nuclear fusion simulation data generated by a large-scale fusion code, XGC, which produces hundreds of terabytes of data in a single day. Our approach works within the ADIOS framework and results in compression by a factor of more than 150 while requiring only a few percent of the computational resources necessary for generating the data, making the overall approach highly effective for practical scenarios.

ITER↗
DOE OSTI2021

Giant Outer Transiting Exoplanet Mass (GOT ‘EM) Survey. I. Confirmation of an Eccentric, Cool Jupiter with an Interior Earth-sized Planet Orbiting Kepler-1514

Despite the severe bias of the transit method of exoplanet discovery toward short orbital periods, a modest sample of transiting exoplanets with orbital periods greater than 100 days is known. Long-term radial velocity (RV) surveys are pivotal to confirming these signals and generating a set of planetary masses and densities for planets receiving moderate to low irradiation from their host stars. Here we conduct RV observations of Kepler-1514 from the Keck I telescope using the High Resolution Echelle Spectrometer. From these data, we measure the mass of the statistically validated giant (1.108 ± 0.023 R {sub J}) exoplanet Kepler-1514 b with a 218-day orbital period as 5.28 ± 0.22 M {sub J}. The bulk density of this cool (∼390 K) giant planet is 4.82{sub −0.25}{sup +0.26}g cm{sup −3}, consistent with a core supported by electron degeneracy pressure. We also infer an orbital eccentricity of 0.401{sub −0.014}{sup +0.013} from the RV and transit observations, which is consistent with planet–planet scattering and disk cavity migration models. The Kepler-1514 system contains an Earth-size, Kepler Object of Interest on a 10.5-day orbit that we statistically validate against false-positive scenarios, including those involving a neighboring star. The combination of the brightness (V = 11.8) of the host star and the long period, low irradiation, and high density of Kepler-1514 b places this system among a rare group of known exoplanetary systems and as one that is amenable to continued study.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
DOE OSTI2024

Discovery and Characterization of Two Ultrafaint Dwarfs outside the Halo of the Milky Way: Leo M and Leo K

Abstract We report the discovery of two ultrafaint dwarf galaxies, Leo M and Leo K, that lie outside the halo of the Milky Way (MW). Using Hubble Space Telescope imaging of the resolved stars, we create color–magnitude diagrams reaching the oldest main-sequence turnoff of each system and (i) fit for structural parameters of the galaxies; (ii) measure their distances using the luminosity of the horizontal branch stars; (iii) estimate integrated magnitudes and stellar masses; and (iv) reconstruct the star formation histories. Based on their location in the Local Group, neither galaxy is currently within the halo of the MW although Leo K is located ∼26 kpc from the low-mass galaxy Leo T and these two systems may have had a past interaction. Leo M and Leo K have stellar masses of 1.8 − 0.2 + 0.3 × 10 4 M ⊙ and 1.2 ± 0.2 × 10 4 M ⊙ , and were quenched 10.6 − 1.1 + 2.2 Gyr and 12.8 − 4.2 + 0.1 Gyr ago, respectively. Given that the galaxies are at farther distances from the MW, it is unlikely that they were quenched by environmental processing. Instead, given their low stellar masses, their early quenching timescales are consistent with the scenario that a combination of reionization and stellar feedback shut down star formation at early cosmic times.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Infalling ultra-faint dwarfs as emissaries of the Axiverse

Recent discoveries of ultra-faint dwarf galaxies (UFDs) infalling onto the Milky Way, namely Leo K & M at r ≃ 450 kpc, considerably strengthens the case that UFDs constitute a distinct galaxy class that is inherently smaller and fainter, and metal-poorer than the classical dwarf spheroidals (dSph). This distinction is at odds with the inherent continuity of galaxy halo masses formed under scale-free gravity for any standard dark-matter (DM) model. Here, we show that distinct galaxy classes do evolve in cosmological simulations of multiple light bosons representing the “Axiverse” proposal of string theory, where a discrete mass spectrum of axions is generically predicted to span many decades in mass. In this context, the observed UFD class we show corresponds to a relatively heavy boson of 3 × 10 −21 eV, including Leo K & M, whereas a lighter axion of 10 −22 eV comprises the bulk of DM in all larger galaxies including the dSphs. Although Leo M is larger in size than Leo K, we predict its velocity dispersion to be smaller ( ≃ 1.7 km/s) than that of Leo K ( ≃ 4.5 km/s) because of the inverse de Broglie scale dependence on momentum. This scenario can be definitively tested using millisecond pulsars close to the Galactic center, where the Compton frequencies of the heavy and light bosons imprint monotone timing residuals that may be detected by the Square Kilometre Array (SKA) on timescales of approximately one week and four months, respectively.

dark matter↗
DOE OSTI2024

Multiwavelength study of OT 081: broadband modelling of a transitional blazar

ABSTRACT OT 081 is a well-known, luminous blazar that is remarkably variable in many energy bands. We present the first broadband study of the source, which includes very high energy (VHE, $E\gt $ 100 GeV) $\gamma$-ray data taken by the MAGIC (Major Atmospheric Gamma-ray Imaging Cherenkov telescopes) and H.E.S.S. (High Energy Stereoscopic System) imaging Cherenkov telescopes. The discovery of VHE $\gamma$-ray emission happened during a high state of $\gamma$-ray activity in July 2016, observed by many instruments from radio to VHE $\gamma$-rays. We identify four states of activity of the source, one of which includes VHE $\gamma$-ray emission. Variability in the VHE domain is found on daily time-scales. The intrinsic VHE spectrum can be described by a power law with index $3.27\pm 0.44_{\rm stat}\pm 0.15_{\rm sys}$ (MAGIC) and $3.39\pm 0.58_{\rm stat}\pm 0.64_{\rm sys}$ (H.E.S.S.) in the energy range of 55–300 and 120–500 GeV, respectively. The broadband emission cannot be successfully reproduced by a simple one-zone synchrotron self-Compton model. Instead, an additional external Compton component is required. We test a lepto-hadronic model that reproduces the data set well and a proton-synchrotron-dominated model that requires an extreme proton luminosity. Emission models that are able to successfully represent the data place the emitting region well outside of the broad-line region to a location at which the radiative environment is dominated by the infrared thermal radiation field of the dusty torus. In the scenario described by this flaring activity, the source appears to be a flat spectrum radio quasar (FSRQ), in contrast with past categorizations. This suggests that the source can be considered to be a transitional blazar, intermediate between BL Lac and FSRQ objects.

Abe, H.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Atmospheric Escape From TOI-700 d: Venus versus Earth Analogs

The recent discovery of an Earth-sized planet (TOI-700 d) in the habitable zone of an early-type M-dwarf by the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite constitutes an important advance. In this Letter, we assess the feasibility of this planet to retain an atmosphere – one of the chief ingredients for surface habitability – over long timescales by employing state-of-the-art magnetohydrodynamic models to simulate the stellar wind and the associated rates of atmospheric escape. We take two major factors into consideration, namely, the planetary atmospheric composition and magnetic field. In all cases, we determine that the atmospheric ion escape rates are potentially a few orders of magnitude higher than the inner Solar system planets, but TOI-700 d is nevertheless capable of retaining a 1 bar atmosphere over gigayear timescales for certain regions of the parameter space. The simulations show that the unmagnetized TOI-700 d with a 1 bar Earth-like atmosphere could be stripped away rather quickly (< 1 gigayear), while the unmagnetized TOI-700 d with a 1 bar CO 2 -dominated atmosphere could persist for many billions of years; we find that the magnetized Earth-like case falls in between these two scenarios. We also discuss the prospects for detecting radio emission of the planet (thereby constraining its magnetic field) and discerning the presence of an atmosphere.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Global Corn Heat Stress: Mean and SD of Degree Days Above 29°C based on NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 Climate Projections

Description This global dataset provides the estimated mean and standard deviation (SD) of corn heat stress (degree days above 29°C) for a set of climate models in NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 at 0.25-degree resolution. The NEX-GDDP-CMIP6 dataset is comprised of global downscaled climate scenarios derived from the General Circulation Model (GCM) runs conducted under the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). The current dataset includes: Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Average Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- Historical Long-Term Standard Deviation of Degree Days Above 29°C- SSP245 The mean and SD are calculated over 1985-2014 for the historical period and over 2035-2064 for future projections. A full description of methods, including growing season, daily temperature distribution, and statistical coefficients, can be found in Haqiqi (2024). The source climate data are obtained from https://ds.nccs.nasa.gov/thredds2/catalog/catalog.html and are described in Thrasher et al (2022). The codes used to create this dataset are available at https://github.com/ihaqiqi/dd29c_nex_cmip6. Acknowledgments This work was supported by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research Program, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling, MultiSector Dynamics under Cooperative Agreement DE-SC0022141. The data processing, computation, and storage were completed on Purdue Anvil supercomputer and cyberinfrastructure supported by the National Science Foundation HDR award # 2118329: "NSF Institute for Geospatial Understanding through an Integrative Discovery Environment (I-GUIDE)". References Haqiqi. I. (2024). Trade can buffer climate-induced risks and volatilities in crop supply. Environmental Research: Food Systems. https://doi.org/10.1088/2976-601X/ad7d12 Thrasher, B., Wang, W., Michaelis, A., Melton, F., Lee, T., & Nemani, R. (2022). NASA global daily downscaled projections, CMIP6. Scientific Data, 9(1), 262. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41597-022-01393-4

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2021

SN 2020bqj: A Type Ibn supernova with a long-lasting peak plateau

We report type Ibn supernovae (SNe Ibn) are a rare class of stripped envelope supernovae interacting with a helium-rich circumstellar medium (CSM). The majority of the SNe Ibn reported in the literature display a surprising homogeneity in their fast-evolving lightcurves and are typically found in actively starforming spiral galaxies. We present the discovery and the study of SN 2020bqj (ZTF20aalrqbu), a SN Ibn with a long-duration peak plateau lasting 40 days and hosted by a faint low-mass galaxy. We aim to explain its peculiar properties using an extensive photometric and spectroscopic data set. We compare the photometric and spectral evolution of SN 2020bqj with regular SNe Ibn from the literature, as well as with other outliers in the SN Ibn subclass. We fit the bolometric and multi-band lightcurves with powering mechanism models such as radioactive decay and CSM interaction. We also model the host galaxy of SN 2020bqj. The risetime, peak magnitude and spectral features of SN 2020bqj are consistent with those of most SNe Ibn, but the SN is a clear outlier in the subclass based on its bright, long-lasting peak plateau and the low mass of its faint host galaxy. We show through modeling that the lightcurve of SN 2020bqj can be powered predominantly by shock heating from the interaction of the SN ejecta and a dense CSM, combined with radioactive decay. The peculiar Type Ibn SN 2011hw is a close analog to SN 2020bqj in terms of lightcurve and spectral evolution, suggesting a similar progenitor and CSM scenario. In this scenario a very massive progenitor star in the transitional phase between a luminous blue variable and a compact Wolf-Rayet star undergoes core-collapse, embedded in a dense helium-rich CSM with an elevated opacity compared to normal SNe Ibn, due to the presence of residual hydrogen. This scenario is consistent with the observed properties of SN 2020bqj and the modeling results. SN 2020bqj is a compelling example of a transitional SN Ibn/IIn based on not only its spectral features, but also its lightcurve, host galaxy properties and the inferred progenitor properties. The strong similarity with SN 2011hw suggests this subclass may be the result of a progenitor in a stellar evolution phase that is distinct from those of progenitors of regular SNe Ibn.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

r-Process Radioisotopes from Near-Earth Supernovae and Kilonovae

The astrophysical sites where r-process elements are synthesized remain mysterious: it is clear that neutron star mergers (kilonovae (KNe)) contribute, and some classes of core-collapse supernovae (SNe) are also possible sources of at least the lighter r-process species. The discovery of 60Fe on the Earth and Moon implies that one or more astrophysical explosions have occurred near the Earth within the last few million years, probably SNe. Intriguingly, 244 Pu has now been detected, mostly overlapping with 60 Fe pulses. However, the 244 Pu flux may extend to before 12 Myr ago, pointing to a different origin. Here, motivated by these observations and difficulties for r-process nucleosynthesis in SN models, we propose that ejecta from a KN enriched the giant molecular cloud that gave rise to the Local Bubble, where the Sun resides. Accelerator mass spectrometry (AMS) measurements of 244 Pu and searches for other live isotopes could probe the origins of the r-process and the history of the solar neighborhood, including triggers for mass extinctions, e.g., that at the end of the Devonian epoch, motivating the calculations of the abundances of live r-process radioisotopes produced in SNe and KNe that we present here. Given the presence of 244 Pu, other r-process species such as 93 Zr, 107 Pd, 129 I, 135 Cs, 182 Hf, 236 U, 237 Np, and 247 Cm should be present. Their abundances and well-resolved time histories could distinguish between the SN and KN scenarios, and we discuss prospects for their detection in deep-ocean deposits and the lunar regolith. We show that AMS 129 I measurements in Fe–Mn crusts already constrain a possible nearby KN scenario.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Interactive Web Application for Traffic Simulation Data Management and Visualization

As traffic simulation software becomes more effective for realistically simulating and analyzing traffic dynamics and vehicle interactions on the mesoscopic and microscopic level, the management, dissemination, and collaborative visualization of traffic simulation results produced by individual transportation planners presents a significant challenge. Existing online content management systems have a very limited capability in allowing users to query specific traffic simulation scenarios and geospatially visualize simulation results through shareable and interactive web interfaces. This paper presents a web-based application for promoting the archiving, sharing, and visualization of large-scale traffic simulation outputs. The application is developed to enhance cyber-physical controls, communications, and public education for collaborative transportation planning. Unique features of the web application include: (a) allowing users to upload their new traffic simulation scenarios (parameters and outputs), as well as search existing scenarios using easily accessible interfaces; (b) optimizing simulation output files with heterogeneous data formats and projected coordinate systems for web-based storage and management using a scalable and searchable data/metadata standard; (c) standardizing user-uploaded simulation outputs using web interfaces and data processing libraries with parallel computing capacity; and (d) providing shareable web visual interfaces for visualizing the traffic flow and signal information stored in simulation outputs (e.g., regional traffic patterns and individual vehicle interactions) and visually comparing multiple simulation outputs both spatially and temporally. Furthermore, the paper presents the conceptual design and implementation of this application, and demonstrates the application’s performance for sharing, comparing, and visualizing simulation outputs from VISSIM and SUMO, two commonly used traffic simulation software programs.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Revisiting the Terawatt Challenge

Richard E. Smalley, in 2003, defined the Terawatt (TW) Challenge as “Adapting our energy infrastructure to simultaneously address diminishing oil resources and rising levels of atmospheric CO 2 .” Smalley, best known for the discovery of C 60 , for which he received the 1996 Nobel Prize in Chemistry, continued to address the challenges of anthropomorphic and natural global energy flows until he passed away in 2005. Smalley challenged the world to transform the energy sector. He envisioned electricity transmitted by high-voltage direct current (DC) lines from massively deployed solar plants in sunny areas and remotely sited nuclear plants. He also envisioned using advanced batteries for local storage of energy. To meet the needs of ~10 people in a world with a dwindling oil supply, Smalley asserted that the world would need to transform its fossil-fuel-driven 14-TW (average power) energy used in 2003 to a largely renewable-energy-driven 30–60 TW (average power) in 2050. This would be possible only if solar-electricity costs could be drastically reduced. The challenges associated with this transition have been called the “Terawatt Challenge.” Fifteen years later, solar-module costs have been reduced by tenfold and annual deployment of solar photovoltaic (PV) modules has grown by a factor of 100,from ~1 gigawatt (GW) in 2004 to ~100 GW in 2018, with a total of 500 GW installed worldwide, producing 2% of the planet’s electricity. As global installed solar generating capacity approaches1 TW, we revisit Smalley’s TW challenge to identify what has changed and quantify the TW Challenge for a baseline scenario and for two scenarios designed as upper and lower bounds determined by the degree we implement electrification and storage. In this paper, we show that the energy choices we make today will dramatically affect the magnitude of future global energy requirements.

SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Liquid helium fluid dynamics studies. Final Technical Report

Future high energy physics accelerators depend on a number of advanced technologies to open the many doors of scientific discovery. Among these advanced technologies, superconducting magnets and superconducting radio frequency (SRF) cavities are the backbone of the accelerator and detector systems. But all these low temperature systems depend critically on successful and reliable operation of their supporting technologies, among which the liquid helium cooling system is of the utmost importance. To improve the quality of these systems both in terms of efficiency and reliability, a robust helium cryogenics research and development (R&D) effort is required. The proposed research to be conducted by the FSU cryogenics group aims to produce fundamental knowledge that meets this R&D need. The projects that we have completed over the past grant period at Florida State University consist of experimental research on liquid helium fluid dynamics and heat transfer problems relevant to the development of future superconducting particle physics accelerators. Liquid helium is the coolant used in all such facilities and in many of these facilities He II (the low temperature phase of liquid helium also known as superfluid helium) is preferred due to its outstanding heat transfer characteristics. The work consists of two main experimental studies that probe both fundamental as well as practical aspects of liquid helium cooling. The first is a broad and fundamental study of the heat and mass transfer processes that can occur during a sudden catastrophic loss of vacuum (SCLV) incident in a superconducting accelerator. SCLV refers to the remote but extremely critical accident scenario where atmospheric pressure air is allowed to flood into the insulating vacuum system and impinge on the liquid helium cooled surfaces in the accelerator. Safe performance and recovery from such accidents is essential to the reliable operation of superconducting accelerators. The dynamics of this process is quite complex and so our approach is to conduct a series of well-orchestrated experiments that probe the various physical phenomena that can occur during an SCLV event. The experiments are coupled with analytic and numerical analysis in an effort to develop a general understanding of the process and to assist with future accelerator design and development. The second activity is directed toward fundamental understanding of heat and mass transfer in He II, which is essential to the design of superconducting magnets and radio frequency cavities in accelerators. The work consists of flow visualization of the dynamics of He II using laser assisted techniques. Two complementary techniques are used to study the fundamentals of the turbulent state. The first technique uses neutrally buoyant solid hydrogen particles to probe the flow fields of the superfluid and normal fluid components. The other technique uses laser excited He2* molecules as tracers of the normal fluid motion within the He II. The activities also included an effort to use visualization techniques to locate transient hot spots in radio frequency superconducting cavities. Such work provides valuable information about the heat transfer process in He II and its impact on the performance of superconducting devices. The research effort at Florida State University is not directly in support of a specific high energy physics experiment or facility. Rather, the work is general and coordinated with HEP accelerator laboratories to provide valuable insight that can assist with future accelerator development.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precursor Analysis Report: Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016

The Industroyer Targeting Ukraine Electric Power Transport Utility (Ukrenergo) 2016 Precursor Analysis Report leverages publicly available information about the December 2016 cyber attack against the Ukrainian Ukrenergo electric transmission utility and catalogs anomalous observables for each technique employed in the attack. This analysis is based upon the methodology of the Cybersecurity for the Operational Technology Environment (CyOTE) program. Industroyer is a modular malware framework designed to deploy several Industrial Control System (ICS) protocol-specific attack payloads to disrupt electricity distribution. Adversaries deployed Industroyer within the target network on a Microsoft Windows endpoint capable of directly manipulating or communicating with ICS. Industroyer abuses the functionality of a targeted ICS’s legitimate control system to achieve its intended impact. Adversaries likely first gained access to Ukrenergo enterprise networks in early 2016 after a successful spearphishing campaign against organizations in the electric power sector. Adversaries then began capturing credentials beginning on 1 December 2016. This allowed access to the ICS environment at the Pivnichna electric transmission substation outside Kyiv through a device dual-homed on the Information Technology (IT) and ICS networks. Adversaries conducted discovery, targeting, and access to this device using information and previously captured credentials from compromised enterprise IT machines. Finally, the adversaries deployed and launched the Industroyer malware just before midnight on 17 December. By midnight, Ukrenergo had lost control of a targeted substation, resulting in electric power outages for over an hour in the city of Kyiv and the Kyiv region. Researchers and analysts identified 31 unique techniques (used in a sequence of 33 steps) utilized during the attack with a total of 846 observables using MITRE ATT&CK® for Industrial Control Systems. The CyOTE program assesses observables accompanying techniques used prior to the triggering event to identify opportunities to detect malicious activity. If observables accompanying the attack techniques are perceived and investigated prior to the triggering event, earlier comprehension of malicious activity can take place. Twenty-nine of the identified techniques used during the Industroyer cyber attack were precursors to the triggering event. Analysis identified 548 observables associated with these precursor techniques, 353 of which were assessed to have an increased likelihood of being perceived in the 300 days preceding the triggering event. The response and comprehension time could have been reduced if the observables had been identified earlier. The information gathered in this report contributes to a library of observables tied to a repository of artifacts, data sources, and technique detection references for practitioners and developers to support the comprehension of indicators of attack. Asset owners and operators can use these products if they experience similar observables or to prepare for comparable scenarios.

45 MILITARY TECHNOLOGY, WEAPONRY, AND NATIONAL DEF↗
DOE OSTI2022

Transient Radio Emission from Low-redshift Galaxies at z < 0.3 Revealed by the VLASS and FIRST Surveys

We present the discovery of a sample of 18 low-redshift (z < 0.3) galaxies with transient nuclear radio emission. These galaxies are not detected or are weakly detected in the Faint Images of the Radio Sky at Twenty cm survey, performed from 1993–2009, but have brightened significantly in radio flux (by a factor of ≳5) in the epoch I (2017–2019) observations of the Very Large Array Sky Survey (VLASS). All 18 galaxies have been detected in VLASS epoch II observations, from 2020–2021, from which the radio flux has been found to evolve slowly (with variability amplitudes of ≳40%) over a period of about 3 yr. 15 galaxies have been observed in the Rapid ASKAP Continuum Survey, and a flat or inverted spectral slope between 888 MHz and 3 GHz is found. Based on the Sloan Digital Sky Survey spectra taken before the radio brightening, 14 of the 18 galaxies can be classified as LINERs or normal galaxies with weak or no nuclear activity. Most galaxies are red and massive, with more than half having central black hole masses above 10 8 M ⊙ . We find that only one galaxy in our sample displays an optical flare lasting for at least two months, with a long decay in the infrared light curve that can be explained as the dust-heated echo emission of a central optical flare, such as a stellar tidal disruption event. We discuss several possibilities for the transient radio emission and conclude that it is likely associated with a newborn radio jet triggered by short sporadic fueling of a supermassive black hole. Such a scenario can be tested with further multifrequency radio observations of these sources, via measuring their radio flux variability and spectral evolution.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Subsurface Characterization and Machine Learning Predictions at Brady Hot Springs Results

Geothermal power plants typically show decreasing heat and power production rates over time. Mitigation strategies include optimizing the management of existing wells - increasing or decreasing the fluid flow rates across the wells - and drilling new wells at appropriate locations. The latter is expensive, time-consuming, and subject to many engineering constraints, but the former is a viable mechanism for periodic adjustment of the available fluid allocations. Data and supporting literature from a study describing a new approach combining reservoir modeling and machine learning to produce models that enable strategies for the mitigation of decreased heat and power production rates over time for geothermal power plants. The computational approach used enables translation of sets of potential flow rates for the active wells into reservoir-wide estimates of produced energy and discovery of optimal flow allocations among the studied sets. In our computational experiments, we utilize collections of simulations for a specific reservoir (which capture subsurface characterization and realize history matching) along with machine learning models that predict temperature and pressure timeseries for production wells. We evaluate this approach using an "open-source" reservoir we have constructed that captures many of the characteristics of Brady Hot Springs, a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA. Selected results from a reservoir model of Brady Hot Springs itself are presented to show successful application to an existing system. In both cases, energy predictions prove to be highly accurate: all observed prediction errors do not exceed 3.68% for temperatures and 4.75% for pressures. In a cumulative energy estimation, we observe prediction errors that are less than 4.04%. A typical reservoir simulation for Brady Hot Springs completes in approximately 4 hours, whereas our machine learning models yield accurate 20-year predictions for temperatures, pressures, and produced energy in 0.9 seconds. This paper aims to demonstrate how the models and techniques from our study can be applied to achieve rapid exploration of controlled parameters and optimization of other geothermal reservoirs. Includes a synthetic, yet realistic, model of a geothermal reservoir, referred to as open-source reservoir (OSR). OSR is a 10-well (4 injection wells and 6 production wells) system that resembles Brady Hot Springs (a commercially operational geothermal field in Nevada, USA) at a high level but has a number of sufficiently modified characteristics (which renders any possible similarity between specific characteristics like temperatures and pressures as purely random). We study OSR through CMG simulations with a wide range of flow allocation scenarios. Includes a dataset with 101 simulated scenarios that cover the period of time between 2020 and 2040 and a link to the published paper about this project, where we focus on the Machine Learning work for predicting OSR's energy production based on the simulation data, as well as a link to the GitHub repository where we have published the code we have developed (please refer to the repository's readme file to see instructions on how to run the code). Additional links are included to associated work led by the USGS to identify geologic factors associated with well productivity in geothermal fields. Below are the high-level steps for applying the same modeling + ML process to other geothermal reservoirs: 1. Develop a geologic model of the geothermal field. The location of faults, upflow zones, aquifers, etc. need to be accounted for as accurately as possible 2. The geologic model needs to be converted to a reservoir model that can be used in a reservoir simulator, such as, for instance, CMG STARS, TETRAD, or FALCON 3. Using native state modeling, the initial temperature and pressure distributions are evaluated, and they become the initial conditions for dynamic reservoir simulations 4....

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗