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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9

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DOE OSTI2024

Optimization of District Heating Network Parameters in Steady-State Operation

Here we examine the modeling, simulation, and optimization of district heating systems, which are widely used for thermal transport using steam or hot water as a carrier. We propose a generalizable framework to specify network models and scenario parameters, and develop an optimization method for evaluating system states including pressures, fluid flowrates, and temperatures throughout the network. The network modeling includes pipes, thermal plants, pumps, and passive or controllable loads as system components. We propose basic models for thermodynamic fluid transport and enforce the balance of physical quantities in steady-state flow over co-located outgoing and return networks. We formulate an optimization problem with steam and hot water as the outgoing and return carriers, as in legacy twentieth century systems. The physical laws and engineering limitations are specified for each component type, and the thermal network flow optimization problem is formulated and solved for a realistic test network under several scenarios.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2026

Robust Optimal Experimental Design of Infinite-Dimensional Bayesian Nonlinear Inverse Problems

Abstract. We consider robust optimal experimental design (ROED) for nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems governed by partial differential equations (PDEs). An optimal design is one that maximizes some utility quantifying the quality of the solution of an inverse problem. However, the optimal design is dependent on elements of the inverse problem such as the simulation model, the prior, or the measurement error model. ROED aims to produce an optimal design that is aware of the additional uncertainties encoded in the inverse problem and remains optimal even after variations in them. We follow a worst-case scenario approach to develop a new framework for robust optimal design of nonlinear Bayesian inverse problems. The proposed framework (a) is scalable and designed for infinite-dimensional Bayesian nonlinear inverse problems constrained by PDEs; (b) develops efficient approximations of the utility, namely the expected information gain; (c) employs eigenvalue sensitivity techniques to develop analytical forms and efficient evaluation methods of the gradient of the utility with respect to the uncertainties against which we wish to be robust; and (d) employs a probabilistic optimization paradigm that properly defines and efficiently solves the resulting combinatorial max-min optimization problem. The effectiveness of the proposed approach is illustrated for optimal sensor placement problem in an inverse problem governed by an elliptic PDE.

Chowdhary, Abhijit↗

NASA NTRS1980

A methodology for long-range prediction of air transportation

A framework and methodology for long term projection of demand for aviation fuels is presented. The approach taken includes two basic components. The first was a new technique for establishing the socio-economic environment within which the future aviation industry is embedded. The concept utilized was a definition of an overall societal objective for the very long run future. Within a framework so defined, a set of scenarios by which the future will unfold are then written. These scenarios provide the determinants of the air transport industry operations and accordingly provide an assessment of future fuel requirements. The second part was the modeling of the industry in terms of an abstracted set of variables to represent the overall industry performance on a macro scale. The model was validated by testing the desired output variables from the model with historical data over the past decades.

Ayati, M. B.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Space power subsystem automation technology

The technology issues involved in power subsystem automation and the reasonable objectives to be sought in such a program were discussed. The complexities, uncertainties, and alternatives of power subsystem automation, along with the advantages from both an economic and a technological perspective were considered. Whereas most spacecraft power subsystems now use certain automated functions, the idea of complete autonomy for long periods of time is almost inconceivable. Thus, it seems prudent that the technology program for power subsystem automation be based upon a growth scenario which should provide a structured framework of deliberate steps to enable the evolution of space power subsystems from the current practice of limited autonomy to a greater use of automation with each step being justified on a cost/benefit basis. Each accomplishment should move toward the objectives of decreased requirement for ground control, increased system reliability through onboard management, and ultimately lower energy cost through longer life systems that require fewer resources to operate and maintain. This approach seems well-suited to the evolution of more sophisticated algorithms and eventually perhaps even the use of some sort of artificial intelligence. Multi-hundred kilowatt systems of the future will probably require an advanced level of autonomy if they are to be affordable and manageable.

Graves, J. R.↗

NASA NTRS1988

An Investigation of the Ability to Recover from Transients Following Failures for Single-Pilot Rotorcraft

A moving-base simulation was conducted to investigate a pilot's ability to recover from transients following single-axis hard-over failures of the flight-control system. The investigation was performed in conjunction with a host simulation that examined the influence of control modes on a single pilot's ability to perform various mission elements under high-workload conditions. The NASA Ames large-amplitude-motion Vertical Motion Simulator (VMS) was utilized, and the experimental variables were the failure axis, the severity of the failure, and the airspeed at which the failure occurred. Other factors, such as pilot workload and terrain and obstacle proximity at the time of failure, were kept as constant as possible within the framework of the host simulation task scenarios. No explicit failure warnings were presented to the pilot. Data from the experiment are shown, and pilot ratings are compared with the proposed handling-qualities requirements for military rotorcraft. Results indicate that the current proposed failure transient requirements may need revision.

Mansur, M. Hossein↗

NASA NTRS2000

The Geologic History of Mars: An Astrobiology Perspective

Fourteen SNC meteorites contain information which must be incorporated with recent spaceflight data for developing Mars' geologic history. SNCs have crystallization ages of 4500 to 160 m.y. Tle oldest meteorite ALH84001 contains information on the Noachian period of Mars' history. There are no meteorites from the Hesperian period and the remaining 13 meteorites fall into two age groups within the Amazonian: The nakhlites around 1300 m.y. and the shergottites between 800-160 m.y. Oxygen isotopic analysis of Martian samples shows two distinct O2 reservoirs throughout Martian history indicating late additions of volatiles and a lack of plate tectonics prior to 3.9 Gy. Evidence for percolation of aqueous brines through impact-produced fractures in the rocky surface is contained in the 3.9 Gy-old ALH84001 carbonate deposits. These carbonates precipitated at approx. 100 C. At this time life had already evolved on Earth. Early Mars could have hosted life similar to the bacteria that inhabited early Earth. Potential microorganisms could have been transported into fractures by carbonate-bearing waters and their remains could have become incorporated into the precipitated carbonate. Since Mars had a weak magnetic field at this time, it can be hypothesized that some of the Martian microorganisms may have been similar to terrestrial magnetotactic bacteria. Over geologic time episodic cratering, and tectonic events have occurred on Mars along with the periodic release of subsurface waters which may have produced clays within SNC meteorites. The geochemical data contained within SNC meteorites complements previous observational data and the recent Mars Global Surveyor data to provide a geological and environmental history which spans almost the entire lifespan on Mars. One of the outstanding features of this model is the possible creation of an early (about 4 Gy) volatile reservoir distinct from the outgassed Mars volatiles, and the persistence of this reservoir throughout most, if not all of subsequent Mars' history. Within the framework of this history a potential scenario for a possible record of living organisms is provided by suggestive structures and organic signatures trapped within secondary mineral deposits and alteration features of some SNC meteorites. Tracing the differences in oxygen isotopic compositions within Martian components allows us to gain insight in the history of Mars.

Gibson, Everett K.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Assessing Space Exploration Technology Requirements as a First Step Towards Ensuring Technology Readiness for International Cooperation in Space Exploration

Advancing critical and enhancing technologies is considered essential to enabling sustainable and affordable human space exploration. Critical technologies are those that enable a certain class of mission, such as technologies necessary for safe landing on the Martian surface, advanced propulsion, and closed loop life support. Others enhance the mission by leading to a greater satisfaction of mission objectives or increased probability of mission success. Advanced technologies are needed to reduce mass and cost. Many space agencies have studied exploration mission architectures and scenarios with the resulting lists of critical and enhancing technologies being very similar. With this in mind, and with the recognition that human space exploration will only be enabled by agencies working together to address these challenges, interested agencies participating in the International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) have agreed to perform a technology assessment as an important step in exploring cooperation opportunities for future exploration mission scenarios. "The Global Exploration Strategy: The Framework for Coordination" was developed by fourteen space agencies and released in May 2007. Since the fall of 2008, several International Space Exploration Coordination Group (ISECG) participating space agencies have been studying concepts for human exploration of the moon. They have identified technologies considered critical and enhancing of sustainable space exploration. Technologies such as in-situ resource utilization, advanced power generation/energy storage systems, reliable dust resistant mobility systems, and closed loop life support systems are important examples. Similarly, agencies such as NASA, ESA, and Russia have studied Mars exploration missions and identified critical technologies. They recognize that human and robotic precursor missions to destinations such as LEO, moon, and near earth objects provide opportunities to demonstrate the technologies needed for Mars mission. Agencies see the importance of assessing gaps and overlaps in their plans to advance technologies in order to leverage their investments and enable exciting missions as soon as practical. They see the importance of respecting the ability of any agency to invest in any technologies considered interesting or strategic. This paper will describe the importance of developing an appropriate international strategy for technology development and ideas for effective mechanisms for advancing an international strategy. This work will both inform and be informed by the development of an ISECG Global Exploration Roadmap and serve as a concrete step forward in advancing the Global Exploration Strategy.

Laurini, Kathleen C.↗

NASA NTRS2017

A Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk Model

Asteroid threat assessment requires the quantification of both the impact likelihood and resulting consequence across the range of possible events. This paper presents a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) assessment model developed for this purpose. The model incorporates published impact frequency rates with state-of-the-art consequence assessment tools, applied within a Monte Carlo framework that generates sets of impact scenarios from uncertain parameter distributions. Explicit treatment of atmospheric entry is included to produce energy deposition rates that account for the effects of thermal ablation and object fragmentation. These energy deposition rates are used to model the resulting ground damage, and affected populations are computed for the sampled impact locations. The results for each scenario are aggregated into a distribution of potential outcomes that reflect the range of uncertain impact parameters, population densities, and strike probabilities. As an illustration of the utility of the PAIR model, the results are used to address the question of what minimum size asteroid constitutes a threat to the population. To answer this question, complete distributions of results are combined with a hypothetical risk tolerance posture to provide the minimum size, given sets of initial assumptions. Model outputs demonstrate how such questions can be answered and provide a means for interpreting the effect that input assumptions and uncertainty can have on final risk-based decisions. Model results can be used to prioritize investments to gain knowledge in critical areas or, conversely, to identify areas where additional data has little effect on the metrics of interest.

Asteroid↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improved Line Outage Detection in Transmission Systems with Few PMUs

Unlike transmission systems, distribution systems historically lack enough measurements, making their real-time monitoring almost impossible. Recent deployment of diverse types of devices such as phasor measurement units (PMUs), smart meters, solar inverters and weather information sensors opens up new ways of monitoring these systems, with the assistance of customized machine learning (ML) applications. The paper describes a grid-model-informed machine learning (ML) tool which integrates heterogeneous data streams and creates synchronous measurement snapshots to be used by a hybrid robust state estimator (SE) which provides not only accurate state estimates but also real-time feedback for ML model refinement. Improved monitoring performance due to the use of developed computational framework is experimentally observed by simulated scenarios on an electric utility’s distribution system.

Distribution systems, graph learning, machine lear↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models–specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

resilience↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models--specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

Daniel Hulse↗

NASA NTRS2017

Representing Water Scarcity in Future Agricultural Assessments

Globally, irrigated agriculture is both essential for food production and the largest user of water. A major challenge for hydrologic and agricultural research communities is assessing the sustainability of irrigated croplands under climate variability and change. Simulations of irrigated croplands generally lack key interactions between water supply, water distribution, and agricultural water demand. In this article, we explore the critical interface between water resources and agriculture by motivating, developing, and illustrating the application of an integrated modeling framework to advance simulations of irrigated croplands. We motivate the framework by examining historical dynamics of irrigation water withdrawals in the United States and quantitatively reviewing previous modeling studies of irrigated croplands with a focus on representations of water supply, agricultural water demand, and impacts on crop yields when water demand exceeds water supply. We then describe the integrated modeling framework for simulating irrigated croplands, which links trends and scenarios with water supply, water allocation, and agricultural water demand. Finally, we provide examples of efforts that leverage the framework to improve simulations of irrigated croplands as well as identify opportunities for interventions that increase agricultural productivity, resiliency, and sustainability.

Irrigated Agriculture; Crop Model; Hydrologic Mode↗

DOE OSTI2022

Evaluation of Physical Security Risk for Potential Implementation of FLEX using Dynamic Simulation Methods

The requirements for United States nuclear power plants to maintain a large onsite physical security force contribute to their large operational costs. The cost of maintaining the current physical security posture is approximately 10% of the overall operation and maintenance budget for commercial nuclear power plants. The goal of the Light Water Reactor Sustainability Program Physical Security Pathway is to develop tools, methods, and technologies and provide the technical basis for an optimized physical security posture. This pathway will analyze and minimize the conservatisms built into current security postures in order to reduce security costs while still ensuring adequate security and operational safety. The research performed at Idaho National Laboratory within this pathway has successfully developed a dynamic force-on-force (FOF) modeling framework using various computer simulation tools and integrated them with the dynamic assessment Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Linked Diagrams (EMRALD) tool. This document provides an overview of lessons learned in applying a dynamic computational framework that links results from a commercially available FOF simulation tool, a commercially available thermal-hydraulic tool, and EMRALD to an operating commercial nuclear power plant. This process of including plant procedures and multiple analysis results is being called Modeling and Analysis for Safety Security using Dynamic EMRALD Framework. Previous reports described how a user could integrate their plant-specific FOF models with the dynamic simulation tool EMRALD, model operator actions, integrate with probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as Computer Aided Fault Tree Analysis System or Systems Analysis Programs for Hands-on Integrated Reliability Evaluations, and with thermal-hydraulic tools, such as RELAP-5. Previous reports applied various combinations of available simulations codes with EMRALD using generic plant models to demonstrate how to perform the analysis. This report documents the results of applying the dynamic computational framework to an actual nuclear facility using their security scenarios and timelines. The purpose of this study was to verify that results achieved using generic models are similar to actual plant results and to refine our guidance of the use of the framework. Such an assessment enables further analysis, such as what-if scenarios and staff-reduction evaluation, thereby optimizing physical security at plants. NOTE: The work performed in this report is based on a generic EMRALD model with actual plant data used for the analysis. However, only the generic model and general results of the analysis are in the report. No plant’s sensitive information is discussed in this report. The discussion shows examples of insights that can be obtained from the MASS-DEF methodology.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2020

Nature Versus Nurture: A Bayesian Framework for Assessing Apparent Correlations between Planetary Orbital Properties and Stellar Ages

Many exoplanets have orbital characteristics quite different from those seen in our own solar system, including planets locked in orbital resonances and planets on orbits that are elliptical or highly inclined from their host star’s spin axis. It is debated whether the wide variety in system architecture is primarily due to differences in formation conditions (nature) or due to evolution over time (nurture). Identifying trends between planetary and stellar properties, including stellar age, can help distinguish between these competing theories and offer insights as to how planets form and evolve. However, it can be challenging to determine whether observed trends between planetary properties and stellar age are driven by the age of the system—pointing to evolution over time being an important factor—or other parameters to which the age may be related, such as stellar mass or stellar temperature. The situation is complicated further by the possibilities of selection biases, small number statistics, uncertainties in stellar age, and orbital evolution timescales that are typically much shorter than the range of observed ages. Here, we develop a Bayesian statistical framework to assess the robustness of such observed correlations and to determine whether they are indeed due to evolutionary processes, are more likely to reflect different formation scenarios, or are merely coincidental. We apply this framework to reported trends between stellar age and 2:1 orbital resonances, spin–orbit misalignments, and hot Jupiters’ orbital eccentricities. We find strong support for the nurture hypothesis only in the final case.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2026

Agentic traffic intelligence: Augmented human-in-the-loop scenario generation for microscopic traffic simulation

Traditional microscopic traffic simulation generation often relies on static datasets and manual design, limiting its ability to simulate complex conditions easily. This paper presents a novel framework, Agentic Traffic Intelligence, which combines human approval large language models (LLMs), the Real-Twin tool, and multi-agent systems to perform realistic microscopic traffic simulation scenario generation. The proposed framework incorporates human-in-the-loop (HIL) control, retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and multi-agent control mechanisms. HIL mechanisms are used to guide multiple LLMs focused on attributes for microscopic simulation generation and to improve the interpretability and transparency of LLM execution for users. RAG enhances context extraction by dynamically integrating external knowledge sources for traffic scenario generation foundations. A multi-agent architecture with supervisory control coordinates the interaction of simulation components, including traffic simulators, control logic, and calibration tools. This enables the synthesis of simulation-ready scenarios that reflect dynamic demand profiles and behavior controls. Furthermore, the framework fuses multisource traffic data with unstructured context and supports iterative refinement through interactive user feedback. Validated through microscopic simulation using Simulation of Urban Mobility, the generated scenarios demonstrate high-fidelity network generation with inflow and turn movement and behavioral calibration, offering a robust and efficient tool for stress-testing and optimizing urban mobility systems.

Hierarchical multi-agent control↗

DOE OSTI2020

Lab-Scale, Closed-Loop Experimental Characterization, Model Refinement, and Validation of a Hydrokinetic Energy-Harvesting Ocean Kite

This paper presents a study wherein we experimentally characterize the dynamics and control system of a lab-scale ocean kite, and then refine, validate, and extrapolate this model for use in a full-scale system. Ocean kite systems, which harvest tidal and ocean current resources through high-efficiency cross-current motion, enable energy extraction with an order of magnitude less material (and cost) than stationary systems with the same rated power output. However, an ocean kite represents a nascent technology that is characterized by relatively complex dynamics and requires sophisticated control algorithms. In order to characterize the dynamics and control of ocean kite systems rapidly, at a relatively low cost, the authors have developed a lab-scale, closed-loop prototyping environment for characterizing tethered systems, whereby 3D printed systems are tethered and flown in a water channel environment. While this system has been shown to be capable of yielding similar dynamic characteristics to some full-scale systems, there are also fundamental limitations to the geometric scales and flow speeds within the water channel environment, making many other real-world scenarios impossible to replicate from the standpoint of dynamic similarity. Here, to address these scenarios, we show how the lab-scale framework is used to refine and validate a scalable dynamic model of a tethered system, which can then be extrapolated to full-scale operation. In this work, we present an extensive case study of this model refinement, validation, and extrapolation on an ocean kite system intended for operation in the Gulf Stream or similar current environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advanced Reactor Safeguards & Security Program: Cybersecurity Scenarios

The use of digital control systems and automation in advanced nuclear power systems introduces different types of vulnerabilities compared to legacy (i.e. analog) control systems that cyber adversaries can exploit. These vulnerabilities pose a challenge to reactor operators and cyber operations staff due to the dynamic nature of the event in which a human response or a lack of response can potentially evolve into a worsening plant condition. Using the Department of Homeland Security Cyber and Infrastructure Security Agency’s (CISA) critical infrastructure exercise framework, this document presents several cyber security scenarios typical of digital control systems that could be used in advanced reactor designs. These scenarios can be used in tabletop exercises to evaluate cyber security posture or conduct training on different aspects of cyber security, including detection, threat hunting using indicators of compromise, evaluating incident response, risk mitigation, incident reporting, information sharing and recovery.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Risk-averse optimization for resilience enhancement of complex engineering systems under uncertainties

With the growth of complexity and extent, large scale interconnected network systems, e.g., transportation networks or infrastructure networks, become more vulnerable to external disturbances. Hence, managing potential disruptive events during the design, operating, and recovery phase of an engineered system and therefore improving the system’s resilience is an important yet challenging task. Here, to ensure system resilience after the occurrence of failure events, this study proposes a mixed-integer linear programming (MILP) based restoration framework using heterogeneous dispatchable agents. The scenario-based stochastic optimization (SO) technique is adopted to deal with the inherent uncertainties imposed on the recovery process from nature. Moreover, different from conventional SO using deterministic equivalent formulations, the CVaR risk measure is implemented for this study because of the temporal sparsity of the decision making in applications such as the recovery from extreme events. The resulting restoration framework involves a large-scale MILP problem and thus an adequate decomposition technique i.e. modified Lagrangian dual decomposition, is also employed to achieve tractable computational complexity. Case study results based on the IEEE 37-bus test feeder demonstrate the benefits of using the proposed framework for resilience improvement as well as the advantages of adopting SO formulations.

42 ENGINEERING↗