SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “scenario reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 163 records · Page 9

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2013

Projected Climate Impacts to South African Maize and Wheat Production in 2055: A Comparison of Empirical and Mechanistic Modeling Approaches

Crop model-specific biases are a key uncertainty affecting our understanding of climate change impacts to agriculture. There is increasing research focus on intermodel variation, but comparisons between mechanistic (MMs) and empirical models (EMs) are rare despite both being used widely in this field. We combined MMs and EMs to project future (2055) changes in the potential distribution (suitability) and productivity of maize and spring wheat in South Africa under 18 downscaled climate scenarios (9 models run under 2 emissions scenarios). EMs projected larger yield losses or smaller gains than MMs. The EMs' median-projected maize and wheat yield changes were 3.6% and 6.2%, respectively, compared to 6.5% and 15.2% for the MM. The EM projected a 10% reduction in the potential maize growing area, where the MM projected a 9% gain. Both models showed increases in the potential spring wheat production region (EM = 48%, MM = 20%), but these results were more equivocal because both models (particularly the EM) substantially overestimated the extent of current suitability. The substantial water-use efficiency gains simulated by the MMs under elevated CO2 accounted for much of the EMMM difference, but EMs may have more accurately represented crop temperature sensitivities. Our results align with earlier studies showing that EMs may show larger climate change losses than MMs. Crop forecasting efforts should expand to include EMMM comparisons to provide a fuller picture of crop-climate response uncertainties.

DSSAT↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Triple Oxygen Isotope Kinetics of Sulfate From Pyrite Oxidation

Sulfates from low temperature terrestrial and marine environments are out of equilibrium with their oxygen sources. Instead, oxygen isotope compositions of sulfate imply they are dominated by kinetic signatures of oxidative and reductive processes (Killingsworth et al., 2022) that are under-constrained compared to equilibrium effects (Hayles and Killingsworth, 2022). Consequently, the specific role of pyrite oxidation in setting the oxygen isotope composition of sulfate is also under-constrained. This scenario inhibits a more nuanced understanding of small variations in the oxygen isotopes of sulfate and their implications for tracing oxygen sources and sulfur cycle transformations, particularly in low-temperature relatively sulfate-limited freshwater systems such as rivers, lakes, aquifers, and mining-affected environments. To alleviate these knowledge gaps, we conduct pyrite oxidation experiments at time scales spanning minutes to years, analyze the triple oxygen isotope compositions (∆ 17 O and δ 18 O) of sulfate products, and interpret results using molecular modeling. Our preliminary results show isotopic relationships of 1) pyrite-derived sulfate ∆ 17 O reaching above the meteoric water line as its δ 18 O becomes lighter than water, and 2) sulfate ∆ 17 O and δ 18 O extending between water and O 2 . From these results we interpret a kinetic isotope effect between sulfate and water and mixing between sulfate end members containing most of their oxygen atoms from water and from O 2 .

Oxygen isotopes↗

NASA NTRS2000

Application of Energy Integration Techniques to the Design of Advanced Life Support Systems

Exchanging heat between hot and cold streams within an advanced life support system can save energy. This savings will reduce the equivalent system mass (ESM) of the system. Different system configurations are examined under steady-state conditions for various percentages of food growth and waste treatment. The scenarios investigated represent possible design options for a Mars reference mission. Reference mission definitions are drawn from the ALSS Modeling and Analysis Reference Missions Document, which includes definitions for space station evolution, Mars landers, and a Mars base. For each scenario, streams requiring heating or cooling are identified and characterized by mass flow, supply and target temperatures and heat capacities. The Pinch Technique is applied to identify good matches for energy exchange between the hot and cold streams and to calculate the minimum external heating and cooling requirements for the system. For each pair of hot and cold streams that are matched, there will be a reduction in the amount of external heating and cooling required, and the original heating and cooling equipment will be replaced with a heat exchanger. The net cost savings can be either positive or negative for each stream pairing, and the priority for implementing each pairing can be ranked according to its potential cost savings. Using the Pinch technique, a complete system heat exchange network is developed and heat exchangers are sized to allow for calculation of ESM. The energy-integrated design typically has a lower total ESM than the original design with no energy integration. A comparison of ESM savings in each of the scenarios is made to direct future Pinch Analysis efforts.

Levri, Julie↗

NASA NTRS1997

Probabilistic Analysis of Ground-Holding Strategies

The Ground-Holding Policy Problem (GHPP) has become a matter of great interest in recent years because of the high cost incurred by aircraft suffering from delays. Ground-holding keeps a flight on the ground at the departure airport if it is known it will be unable to land at the arrival airport. The GBPP is determining how many flights should be held on the ground before take-off and for how long, in order to minimize the cost of delays. When the uncertainty associated with airport landing capacity is considered, the GHPP becomes complicated. A decision support system that incorporates this uncertainty, solves the GHPP quickly, and gives good results would be of great help to air traffic management. The purpose of this thesis is to modify and analyze a probabilistic ground-holding algorithm by applying it to two common cases of capacity reduction. A graphical user interface was developed and sensitivity analysis was done on the algorithm, in order to see how it may be implemented in practice. The sensitivity analysis showed the algorithm was very sensitive to the number of probabilistic capacity scenarios used and to the cost ratio of air delay to ground delay. The algorithm was not particularly sensitive to the number of periods that the time horizon was divided into. In terms of cost savings, a ground-holding policy was the most beneficial when demand greatly exceeded airport capacity. When compared to other air traffic flow strategies, the ground-holding algorithm performed the best and was the most consistent under various situations. The algorithm can solve large problems quickly and efficiently on a personal computer.

Sheel, Minakshi↗

NASA NTRS2004

Strategy Developed for Selecting Optimal Sensors for Monitoring Engine Health

Sensor indications during rocket engine operation are the primary means of assessing engine performance and health. Effective selection and location of sensors in the operating engine environment enables accurate real-time condition monitoring and rapid engine controller response to mitigate critical fault conditions. These capabilities are crucial to ensure crew safety and mission success. Effective sensor selection also facilitates postflight condition assessment, which contributes to efficient engine maintenance and reduced operating costs. Under the Next Generation Launch Technology program, the NASA Glenn Research Center, in partnership with Rocketdyne Propulsion and Power, has developed a model-based procedure for systematically selecting an optimal sensor suite for assessing rocket engine system health. This optimization process is termed the systematic sensor selection strategy. Engine health management (EHM) systems generally employ multiple diagnostic procedures including data validation, anomaly detection, fault-isolation, and information fusion. The effectiveness of each diagnostic component is affected by the quality, availability, and compatibility of sensor data. Therefore systematic sensor selection is an enabling technology for EHM. Information in three categories is required by the systematic sensor selection strategy. The first category consists of targeted engine fault information; including the description and estimated risk-reduction factor for each identified fault. Risk-reduction factors are used to define and rank the potential merit of timely fault diagnoses. The second category is composed of candidate sensor information; including type, location, and estimated variance in normal operation. The final category includes the definition of fault scenarios characteristic of each targeted engine fault. These scenarios are defined in terms of engine model hardware parameters. Values of these parameters define engine simulations that generate expected sensor values for targeted fault scenarios. Taken together, this information provides an efficient condensation of the engineering experience and engine flow physics needed for sensor selection. The systematic sensor selection strategy is composed of three primary algorithms. The core of the selection process is a genetic algorithm that iteratively improves a defined quality measure of selected sensor suites. A merit algorithm is employed to compute the quality measure for each test sensor suite presented by the selection process. The quality measure is based on the fidelity of fault detection and the level of fault source discrimination provided by the test sensor suite. An inverse engine model, whose function is to derive hardware performance parameters from sensor data, is an integral part of the merit algorithm. The final component is a statistical evaluation algorithm that characterizes the impact of interference effects, such as control-induced sensor variation and sensor noise, on the probability of fault detection and isolation for optimal and near-optimal sensor suites.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2009

Transient Modeling and Analysis of a Metabolic Heat-Regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) System for a PLSS

A Metabolic heat-regenerated Temperature Swing Adsorption (MTSA) system is being developed for carbon dioxide, water and thermal control in a lunar and martian portable life support system (PLSS). A previous system analysis was performed to evaluate the impact of MTSA on PLSS design. That effort was Mars specific and assumed liquid carbon dioxide (LCO2) coolant made from martian resources. Transient effects were not considered but rather average conditions were used throughout the analysis. This effort takes into further consideration the transient effects inherent in the cycling MTSA system as well as assesses the use of water as coolant. Standard heat transfer, thermodynamic, and heat exchanger methods are presented to conduct the analysis. Assumptions and model verification are discussed. The tool was used to perform various system studies. Coolant selection was explored and takes into account different operational scenarios as the minimum bed temperature is driven by the sublimation temperature of the coolant (water being significantly higher than LCO2). From this, coolant mass is sized coupled with sorbent bed mass because MTSA adsorption performance decreases with increasing sublimation temperature. Reduction in heat exchanger performance and even removal of certain heat exchangers, like a recuperative one between the two sorbent beds, is also investigated. Finally, the coolant flow rate is varied over the cycle to determine if there is a more optimal means of cooling the bed from a mass perspective. Results of these studies and subsequent recommendations for system design are presented.

Iacomini, Christie↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Global Modeling Study on Carbonaceous Aerosol Microphysical Characteristics and Radiative Effects

Recently, attention has been drawn towards black carbon aerosols as a short-term climate warming mitigation candidate. However the global and regional impacts of the direct, indirect and semi-direct aerosol effects are highly uncertain, due to the complex nature of aerosol evolution and the way that mixed, aged aerosols interact with clouds and radiation. A detailed aerosol microphysical scheme, MATRIX, embedded within the GISS climate model is used in this study to present a quantitative assessment of the impact of microphysical processes involving black carbon, such as emission size distributions and optical properties on aerosol cloud activation and radiative effects. Our best estimate for net direct and indirect aerosol radiative flux change between 1750 and 2000 is -0.56 W/m2. However, the direct and indirect aerosol effects are quite sensitive to the black and organic carbon size distribution and consequential mixing state. The net radiative flux change can vary between -0.32 to -0.75 W/m2 depending on these carbonaceous particle properties at emission. Taking into account internally mixed black carbon particles let us simulate correct aerosol absorption. Absorption of black carbon aerosols is amplified by sulfate and nitrate coatings and, even more strongly, by organic coatings. Black carbon mitigation scenarios generally showed reduced radiative fluxeswhen sources with a large proportion of black carbon, such as diesel, are reduced; however reducing sources with a larger organic carbon component as well, such as bio-fuels, does not necessarily lead to a reduction in positive radiative flux.

Bauer, S. E.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Marine wild-capture fisheries after nuclear war

Nuclear war, beyond its devastating direct impacts, is expected to cause global climatic perturbations through injections of soot into the upper atmosphere. Reduced temperature and sunlight could drive unprecedented reductions in agricultural production, endangering global food security. However, the effects of nuclear war on marine wild-capture fisheries, which significantly contribute to the global animal protein and micronutrient supply, remain unexplored. We simulate the climatic effects of six war scenarios on fish biomass and catch globally, using a state-of-the-art Earth system model and global process-based fisheries model. We also simulate how either rapidly increased fish demand (driven by food shortages) or decreased ability to fish (due to infrastructure disruptions), would affect global catches, and test the benefits of strong pre-war fisheries management. We find a decade-long negative climatic impact that intensifies with soot emissions, with global biomass and catch falling by up to 18 ± 3% and 29 ± 7% after a US-Russia war under business-as-usual fishing – similar in magnitude to the end-of-century declines under unmitigated global warming. When war occurs in an overfished state, increasing demand increases short-term (1-2 year) catch by at most ~30% followed by precipitous declines of up to ~70%, thus offsetting only a minor fraction of agricultural losses. However, effective pre-war management that rebuilds fish biomass could ensure a short-term catch buffer large enough to replace ~43 ± 35% of today’s global animal protein production. This buffering function in the event of a global food emergency adds to the many previously-known economic and ecological benefits of effective and precautionary fisheries management.

food from the ocean↗

NASA NTRS1999

Sources and sinks for ammonia and nitrite on the early Earth and the reaction of nitrite with ammonia

An analysis of sources and sinks for ammonia and nitrite on the early Earth was conducted. Rates of formation and destruction, and steady state concentrations of both species were determined by steady state kinetics. The importance of the reaction of nitrite with ammonia on the feasibility of ammonia formation from nitrite was evaluated. The analysis considered conditions such as temperature, ferrous iron concentration, and pH. For sinks we considered the reduction of nitrite to ammonia, reaction between nitrite and ammonia, photochemical destruction of both species, and destruction at hydrothermal vents. Under most environmental conditions, the primary sink for nitrite is reduction to ammonia. The reaction between ammonia and nitrite is not an important sink for either nitrite or ammonia. Destruction at hydrothermal vents is important at acidic pH's and at low ferrous iron concentrations. Photochemical destruction, even in a worst case scenario, is unimportant under many conditions except possibly under acidic, low iron concentration, or low temperature conditions. The primary sink for ammonia is photochemical destruction in the atmosphere. Under acidic conditions, more of the ammonia is tied up as ammonium (reducing its vapor pressure and keeping it in solution) and hydrothermal destruction becomes more important.

NASA Discipline Exobiology↗

NASA NTRS2009

Multi-Mission Suitability of the NASA Ames Modular Common Bus

The obvious advantages of small spacecraft - their lower cost structure and the rapid development schedule - have enabled a large number of missions in the past. However, most of these missions have been focused on Earth observation from low Earth orbits. In 2006, the Small Spacecraft Division at the NASA Ames Research Center began the development of the Modular Common Bus, a spacecraft capable of delivering scientifically and technically useful payloads to a variety of destinations within 0.1 AU around the Earth. The core technologies used in the Common Bus design are a composite structure with body-mounted solar cells, an integrated avionics unit, and a high performance bipropellant propulsion system. Due to its modular approach, the Common Bus can be adapted to fit specific mission needs while still using a standardized and qualified set of components. Additionally a number of low cost launch vehicles are supported, resulting in overall mission costs of around $150M including the launch vehicle but excluding the science payloads. This significant reduction in cost and the shorter development time would enable NASA to conduct more frequent exploration missions within its budget and timeframe constraints, compared to the status quo. In this paper the suitability of the Common Spacecraft Bus for four different exploration scenarios is analyzed. These scenarios include a lunar orbiter, a lunar lander, a mission to a Sun-Earth Libration Point, and a rendezvous mission to a Near Earth Object. For each scenario, a preliminary design reference mission is developed and key design parameters for the spacecraft are determined.

Tietz, Sascha↗

NASA NTRS1984

Rotorcraft contingency power study

Twin helicopter engines are often sized by the power requirement of a safe mission completion after the failure of one of the two engines. This study was undertaken for NASA Lewis by General Electric Co. to evaluate the merits of special design features to provide a 2-1/2 Contingency Power rating, permitting an engine size reduction. The merits of water injection, turbine cooling airflow modulation, throttle push, and a propellant auxiliary power plant were evaluated using military Life Cycle Cost (LCC) and commercial helicopter Direct Operating Cost (DOC) merit factors in a rubber engine and a rubber aircraft scenario.

Hirschkron, R.↗

NASA NTRS1996

Space Age Training

Teledyne Brown developed a computer-based interactive multimedia training system for use with the Crystal Growth Furnace in the U.S. Microgravity Laboratory-2 mission on the Space Shuttle. Teledyne Brown commercialized the system and customized it for PPG Industries Aircraft Products. The system challenges learners with role-playing scenarios and software-driven simulations engaging all the senses using text, video, animation, voice, sounds and music. The transfer of this technology to commercial industrial process training has resulted in significant improvements in effectiveness, standardization, and quality control, as well as cost reductions over the usual classroom and on-the- job training approaches.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2015

The Evolution of On-Board Emergency Training for the International Space Station Crew

The crew of the International Space Station (ISS) receives extensive ground‐training in order to safely and effectively respond to any potential emergency event while on‐orbit, but few people realize that their training is not concluded when they launch into space. The evolution of the emergency On‐ Board Training events (OBTs) has recently moved from paper "scripts" to an intranet‐based software simulation that allows for the crew, as well as the flight control teams in Mission Control Centers across the world, to share in an improved and more realistic training event. This emergency OBT simulator ensures that the participants experience the training event as it unfolds, completely unaware of the type, location, or severity of the simulated emergency until the scenario begins. The crew interfaces with the simulation software via iPads that they keep with them as they translate through the ISS modules, receiving prompts and information as they proceed through the response. Personnel in the control centers bring up the simulation via an intranet browser at their console workstations, and can view additional telemetry signatures in simulated ground displays in order to assist the crew and communicate vital information to them as applicable. The Chief Training Officers and emergency instructors set the simulation in motion, choosing the type of emergency (rapid depressurization, fire, or toxic atmosphere) and specific initial conditions to emphasize the desired training objectives. Project development, testing, and implementation was a collaborative effort between ISS emergency instructors, Chief Training Officers, Flight Directors, and the Crew Office using commercial off the shelf (COTS) hardware along with simulation software created in‐house. Due to the success of the Emergency OBT simulator, the already‐developed software has been leveraged and repurposed to develop a new emulator used during fire response ground‐training to deliver data that the crew receives from the handheld Compound Specific Analyzer for Combustion Products (CSA‐CP). This CSA‐CP emulator makes use of a portion of codebase from the Emergency OBT simulator dealing with atmospheric contamination during fire scenarios, and feeds various data signatures to crew via an iPod Touch with a flight‐like CSA‐CP display. These innovative simulations, which make use of COTS hardware with custom in‐house software, have yielded drastic improvements to emergency training effectiveness and risk reduction for ISS crew and flight control teams during on‐orbit and ground training events.

LaBuff, Skyler↗

NASA NTRS1997

The Influence of Power Limitations on Closed Environment Life Support System Applications

The future of manned space exploration will be determined through a process which balances the innate need of humanity to explore its surroundings and the costs associated with accomplishing these goals. For NASA, this balance is derived from economics and budgetary constraints that hold it accountable for the expenditure of public funds. These budgetary realities demand a reduction in cost and expenditures of exploration and research activities. For missions venturing out to the edge of habitability, the development of cost effective life support approaches will have a significant influence on mission viability. Over the past several years, a variety of mission scenarios for potential Lunar and Mars missions have been developed. The most promising of these scenarios attempt to provide basic mission requirements at a minimum cost. As a result, these scenarios are extremely power limited. For Closed Environment Life Support System (CELSS) applications, these realities impose both limitations and direction to future research. This paper presents a summary of these mission scenarios and an evaluation of the impact which these power limitations will have on CELSS system design.

Flynn, Michael↗

NASA NTRS2009

Development, Testing, and Failure Mechanisms of a Replicative Ice Phase Change Material Heat Exchanger

Phase change materials (PCM) may be useful for thermal control systems that involve cyclical heat loads or cyclical thermal environments such as Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Low Lunar Orbit (LLO). Thermal energy can be stored in the PCM during peak heat loads or in adverse thermal environments. The stored thermal energy can then be released later during minimum heat loads or in more favorable thermal environments. One advantage that PCM s have over evaporators in this scenario is that they do not use a consumable. Wax PCM units have been baselined for the Orion thermal control system and also provide risk mitigation for the Altair Lander. However, the use of water as a PCM has the potential for significant mass reduction since the latent heat of formation of water is approximately 70% greater than that of wax. One of the potential drawbacks of using ice as a PCM is its potential to rupture its container as water expands upon freezing. In order to develop a space qualified ice PCM heat exchanger, failure mechanisms must first be understood. Therefore, a methodical experimental investigation has been undertaken to demonstrate and document specific failure mechanisms due to ice expansion in the PCM. An ice PCM heat exchanger that replicates the thermal energy storage capacity of an existing wax PCM unit was fabricated and tested. Additionally, methods for controlling void location in order to reduce the risk of damage due to ice expansion are investigated. This paper presents the results to date of this investigation.

Leimkuehler, Thomas O.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Development, Testing, and Failure Mechanisms of a Replicative Ice Phase Change Material Heat Exchanger

Phase change materials (PCM) may be useful for thermal control systems that involve cyclical heat loads or cyclical thermal environments such as Low Earth Orbit (LEO) and Low Lunar Orbit (LLO). Thermal energy can be stored in the PCM during peak heat loads or in adverse thermal environments. The stored thermal energy can then be released later during minimum heat loads or in more favorable thermal environments. One advantage that PCM's have over evaporators in this scenario is that they do not use a consumable. Wax PCM units have been baselined for the Orion thermal control system and also provide risk mitigation for the Altair Lander. However, the use of water as a PCM has the potential for significant mass reduction since the latent heat of formation of water is approximately 70% greater than that of wax. One of the potential drawbacks of using ice as a PCM is its potential to rupture its container as water expands upon freezing. In order to develop a space qualified ice PCM heat exchanger, failure mechanisms must first be understood. Therefore, a methodical experimental investigation has been undertaken to demonstrate and document specific failure mechanisms due to ice expansion in the PCM. An ice PCM heat exchanger that replicates the thermal energy storage capacity of an existing wax PCM unit was fabricated and tested. Additionally, methods for controlling void location in order to reduce the risk of damage due to ice expansion are investigated. This paper presents the results to date of this investigation. Nomenclature

Leimkuehler, Thomas O.↗

NASA NTRS2011

A Starshade Petal Error Budget for Exo-Earth Detection and Characterization

We present a starshade error budget with engineering requirements that are well within the current manufacturing and metrology capabilities. The error budget is based on an observational scenario in which the starshade spins about its axis on timescales short relative to the zodi-limited integration time, typically several hours. The scatter from localized petal errors is smoothed into annuli around the center of the image plane, resulting in a large reduction in the background flux variation while reducing thermal gradients caused by structural shadowing. Having identified the performance sensitivity to petal shape errors with spatial periods of 3-4 cycles/petal as the most challenging aspect of the design, we have adopted and modeled a manufacturing approach that mitigates these perturbations with 1-meter-long precision edge segments positioned using commercial metrology that readily meets assembly requirements. We have performed detailed thermal modeling and show that the expected thermal deformations are well within the requirements as well. We compare the requirements for four cases: a 32 meter diameter starshade with a 1.5 meter telescope, analyzed at 75 and 90 milliarcseconds, and a 40 meter diameter starshade with a 4 meter telescope, analyzed at 60 and 75 milliarcseconds.

error budget↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Interannual to Decadal Variability in Subarctic Atlantic Ocean Primary Productivity Historical Variability, Dynamics, and Response to Warming

Phytoplankton primary productivity in the Subarctic Atlantic Ocean sustains valuable fisheries and exports anthropogenic atmospheric carbon dioxide, but multiple Earth system models show that this productivity declines substantially in 21st century global warming scenarios. Prior studies have investigated the spatial and temporal dynamics of the seasonal cycle of the phytoplankton, which exhibit a prominent but spatially variable spring bloom that is caused by the closely related seasonal cycles in solar radiation and vertical mixing that modulate both phytoplankton growth and loss rates. However, recent work indicates that multi-decade declines in this spring bloom with global warming in multiple Earth system models are driven by reductions in circulation of nutrients from the subtropical and tropical thermocline, rather than local changes in vertical mixing or shortwave radiation in the Subarctic. It is unclear if current models of how phytoplankton productivity varies seasonally or over a century in global warming can be interpolated to explain the interannual to decadal variability. In this poster, I will quantify the interannual to decadal variability of phytoplankton chlorophyll using historical satellite ocean color observations and model simulations with the Community Earth System Model. I will then use the observations and model simulations to elucidate the mechanisms of interannual to decadal variability and how that variability is restructured in 21st century global warming scenarios.

nterannual↗