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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 163 records · Page 9
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2012

Date of Snowmelt at High Latitudes as Determined from Visible Satellite Data and Relationship with the Arctic Oscillation

Spring snow cover across Arctic lands has, on average, retreated approximately five days earlier since the late 1980s compared to the previous twenty years. However, it appears that since about 1990, the date the snowline first retreats north during the spring has remained nearly unchanged--in the last twenty years, the date of snow disappearance has not been occurring noticeably earlier. Snowmelt changes observed in the 1980s was step-like in nature, unlike a more continuous downward trend seen in Arctic sea ice extent. At latitude 70 deg N, several latitudinal segments (of 10 degrees) show significant (negative) trends. However, only two latitudinal segments at 60 deg N show significant trends, one positive and one negative. These variations appear to be related to variations in the Arctic Oscillation (AO). Additional observations and modeling investigations are needed to better explain past and present spring melt characteristics and peculiarities.

Foster, James↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recent Upgrades to NASA SPoRT Initialization Datasets for the Environmental Modeling System

The NASA Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center has developed several products for its NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) partners that can initialize specific fields for local model runs within the NOAA/NWS Science and Training Resource Center Environmental Modeling System (EMS). The suite of SPoRT products for use in the EMS consists of a Sea Surface Temperature (SST) composite that includes a Lake Surface Temperature (LST) analysis over the Great Lakes, a Great Lakes sea-ice extent within the SST composite, a real-time Green Vegetation Fraction (GVF) composite, and NASA Land Information System (LIS) gridded output. This paper and companion poster describe each dataset and provide recent upgrades made to the SST, Great Lakes LST, GVF composites, and the real-time LIS runs.

Case, Jonathan L.↗
NASA NTRS2013

Improving Surface Mass Balance Over Ice Sheets and Snow Depth on Sea Ice

Surface mass balance (SMB) over ice sheets and snow on sea ice (SOSI) are important components of the cryosphere. Large knowledge gaps remain in scientists' abilities to monitor SMB and SOSI, including insufficient measurements and difficulties with satellite retrievals. On ice sheets, snow accumulation is the sole mass gain to SMB, and meltwater runoff can be the dominant single loss factor in extremely warm years such as 2012. SOSI affects the growth and melt cycle of the Earth's polar sea ice cover. The summer of 2012 saw the largest satellite-recorded melt area over the Greenland ice sheet and the smallest satellite-recorded Arctic sea ice extent, making this meeting both timely and relevant.

Snow↗
NASA NTRS2013

Using Paleo-climate Comparisons to Constrain Future Projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and best practice for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (8501850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitationtemperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

paleoclimate↗
NASA NTRS2013

A Comparative Review of North American Tundra Delineations

Recent profound changes have been observed in the Arctic environment, including record low sea ice extents and high latitude greening. Studying the Arctic and how it is changing is an important element of climate change science. The Tundra, an ecoregion of the Arctic, is directly related to climate change due to its effects on the snow ice feedback mechanism and greenhouse gas cycling. Like all ecoregions, the Tundra border is shifting, yet studies and policies require clear delineation of boundaries. There are many options for ecoregion classification systems, as well as resources for creating custom maps. To help decision makers identify the best classification system possible, we present a review of North American Tundra ecoregion delineations and further explore the methodologies, purposes, limitations, and physical properties of five common ecoregion classification systems. We quantitatively compare the corresponding maps by area using a geographic information system.

Delineations↗
NASA NTRS2015

Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) Data Products for Climate Research

NASA's Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) project integrates CERES, Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and geostationary satellite observations to provide top-of-atmosphere (TOA) irradiances derived from broadband radiance observations by CERES instruments. It also uses snow cover and sea ice extent retrieved from microwave instruments as well as thermodynamic variables from reanalysis. In addition, these variables are used for surface and atmospheric irradiance computations. The CERES project provides TOA, surface, and atmospheric irradiances in various spatial and temporal resolutions. These data sets are for climate research and evaluation of climate models. Long-term observations are required to understand how the Earth system responds to radiative forcing. A simple model is used to estimate the time to detect trends in TOA reflected shortwave and emitted longwave irradiances.

Kato, Seiji↗
NASA NTRS2017

GEOS-5 Seasonal Forecast System

Ensembles of numerical forecasts based on perturbed initial conditions have long been used to improve estimates of both weather and climate forecasts. The Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmosphere-Ocean General Circulation Model, Version 5 (GEOS-5 AOGCM) Seasonal-to-Interannual Forecast System has been used routinely by the GMAO since 2008, the current version since 2012. A coupled reanalysis starting in 1980 provides the initial conditions for the 9 month experimental forecasts. Once a month, sea surface temperature from a suite of 11 ensemble forecasts is contributed to the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) consensus project, which compares and distributes seasonal forecasts of ENSO events. Since June 2013, GEOS-5 forecasts of the Arctic sea-ice distribution were provided to the Sea-Ice Outlook project. The seasonal forecast output data includes surface fields, atmospheric and ocean fields, as well as sea ice thickness and area, and soil moisture variables. The current paper aims to document the characteristics of the GEOS-5 seasonal forecast system and to highlight forecast biases and skills of selected variables (sea surface temperature, air temperature at 2 m, precipitation and sea ice extent) to be used as a benchmark for the future GMAO seasonal forecast systems and to facilitate comparison with other global seasonal forecast systems.

GEOS-5↗
NASA NTRS2017

Quantifying the Influence of Global Warming on Unprecedented Extreme Climate Events

Efforts to understand the influence of historical global warming on individual extreme climate events have increased over the past decade. However, despite substantial progress, events that are unprecedented in the local observational record remain a persistent challenge. Leveraging observations and a large climate model ensemble, we quantify uncertainty in the influence of global warming on the severity and probability of the historically hottest month, hottest day, driest year, and wettest 5-d period for different areas of the globe. We find that historical warming has increased the severity and probability of the hottest month and hottest day of the year at >80% of the available observational area. Our framework also suggests that the historical climate forcing has increased the probability of the driest year and wettest 5-d period at 57% and 41% of the observed area, respectively, although we note important caveats. For the most protracted hot and dry events, the strongest and most widespread contributions of anthropogenic climate forcing occur in the tropics, including increases in probability of at least a factor of 4 for the hottest month and at least a factor of 2 for the driest year. We also demonstrate the ability of our framework to systematically evaluate the role of dynamic and thermodynamic factors such as atmospheric circulation patterns and atmospheric water vapor, and find extremely high statistical confidence that anthropogenic forcing increased the probability of record-low Arctic sea ice extent.

Diffenbaugh, Noah S.↗
NASA NTRS2017

GEOS S2S-2_1: GMAO's New High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

A new version of the modeling and analysis system used to produce sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts has just been released by the NASA Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution (approximately 12 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a free-running coupled simulation with the new system and results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results from retrospective forecasts show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only trade off is an increased double ITCZ, which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2017

The Earth Observing System (EOS)

The Earth Observing System is a US National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) program consisting of a science segment, a data system, and a space segment made up of a series of polar-orbiting and mid-inclination satellites for long-term monitoring of the Earth as an integrated system, including observations of the land surface, biosphere, atmosphere, cryosphere, and oceans. Initially conceived in the mid-late 1980s, it was implemented as a series of large "flagship" missions and smaller focused satellites, often in partnership with instruments and sometimes spacecraft from other nations. In 1984 NASA formed several instrument panels to develop concepts for “facility instruments” that would provide comprehensive support to the scientific and applications’ communities, each with a supporting science team competitively selected via peer-review. An Announcement of Opportunity was released in 1988 and proposals were solicited for three types of proposals: (i) instrument investigations that would include the provision of instrumentation for flight on a polar platform, including non-Earth science payloads requiring polar orbits (PI instruments), (ii) research facility instrument team member and team leader investigations for facility instruments, and (iii) interdisciplinary science investigations to provide data analysis and modeling, preparing to use data acquired from the space platforms. The initial selections made in 1989 included support for 24 instrument investigations, 6 research facility instrument investigations, and 28 interdisciplinary investigations. Although considerable changes were made over the years in the structure and orbital configuration of the various instruments and platforms, a total of 10 different missions were eventually flown, as shown in Fig. 1. These included three multiinstrument flagship platforms known as Terra (launched in 1999), Aqua (launched in 2002), and Aura (launched in 2004), where the Terra mission emphasis was primarily on land processes, Aqua on the hydrological cycle, and Aura on atmospheric chemistry. In addition to these flagship missions the EOS missions included Landsat 7 (land cover classification and change), QuikScat (wind speed and direction over the oceans), Jason-1 (ocean surface topography and sea level), ACRIMSAT (total solar irradiance (TSI)), SAGE III (stratospheric aerosol and ozone levels), ICESat (ice, cloud, and land elevation), and SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment; total and spectral solar irradiance). In addition EOS supported CERES (an Earth radiation budget sensor) and LIS (a lightning sensor), that flew as part of the NASA/JAXA Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (1997), and SeaWinds (wind speed and direction), that flew as part of the short-lived ADEOS II (Midori II, 2002) mission of JAXA (Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency). The EOS contributions are too numerous to present in detail in this article, but can be viewed for convenience as a means of obtaining global measurements (with appropriate characteristics) of the 24 variables and variable groups listed in Table 1. This table was created by the EOS community in the late 1990s as a way to succinctly indicate which instruments on the various EOS platforms were expected to contribute to each of the specified variables in primary (bold), secondary (bold italics), or contributing (roman) roles. All of the science data products produced by these space missions are available without charge throughout the world, and are thus highly valued for their many contributions to applications such as air quality, fires, land cover change, and the state of the oceans, as well as for science and monitoring of the state of the Earth system and its changes over time. These and other international satellites have played a crucial role in understanding and documenting global change, including (i) global surface temperature and atmospheric temperature and water vapor profiles, (ii) glacial retreat, (iii) sea ice extent and change, (iv) solar radiation into and out of the Earth-atmosphere system, (v) atmospheric aerosol and cloud properties, (vi) sources and sinks of

ICESat↗
NASA NTRS2018

GEOS S2S-2_1: The GMAO High Resolution Seasonal Prediction System

A new version of the coupled modeling and analysis system used to produce near real time subseasonal to seasonal forecasts was recently released by the NASA/Goddard Global Modeling and Assimilation Office. The new version runs at higher atmospheric resolution than the previous, (approximately 1/2 degree globally), contains a substantially improved model description of the cryosphere, and includes additional interactive earth system model components (aerosol model). In addition, the Ocean data assimilation system has been replaced with a Local Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter, and now includes the assimilation of along-track sea surface height. Here will describe the new system, along with the plans for the future (GEOS S2S-3_0) which will include a higher resolution ocean model and more interactive earth system model components (interactive vegetation, biomass burning from fires). We will also present results from a series of retrospective seasonal forecasts. Results show significant improvements in surface temperatures over much of the northern hemisphere and a much improved prediction of sea ice extent in both hemispheres. Analysis of the ensemble spread shows improvements relative to the previous system, including generally better reliability. The precipitation forecast skill is comparable to previous S2S systems, and the only tradeoff is an increased "double ITCZ", which is expected as we go to higher atmospheric resolution.

Molod, Andrea↗
NASA NTRS2020

Interannual Variations of TOA Albedo over the Arctic, Antarctic and Tibetan Plateau in 2000–2019

Recent changes in Earth’s climate system have significantly affected the radiation budget and its year-to-year variations at top of the atmosphere (TOA). Observing high-latitude TOA fluxes is still challenging from space, because spatial inhomogeneity of surface/atmospheric radiative processes and spectral variability can reflect sunlight very differently. In this study we analyze the 20-year TOA flux and albedo data from CERES and MISR over the Arctic, the Antarctic, and Tibetan Plateau (TP), and found overall great consistency in the TOA albedo trend and interannual variations. The observations reveal a lagged correlation between the Arctic and subarctic albedo fluctuations. The observed year-to-year variations are further used to evaluate the reanalysis data, which exhibit substantial shortcomings in representing the polar TOA flux variability. The observed Arctic flux variations are highly correlated with cloud fraction (CF), except in the regions where CF > 90% or where the surface is covered by ice. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis shows that the first five EOFs can account for ~50% of the Arctic TOA variance, whereas the correlation with climate indices suggests that Sea Ice Extent (SIE), North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) and 55°N–65°N cloudiness are the most influential processes in driving the TOA flux variabilities.

interannual variations↗
NASA NTRS2021

Present and future aerosol impacts on Arctic climate change in the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model

The Arctic is warming 2 to 3 times faster than the global average, partly due to changes in short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs) including aerosols. In order to study the effects of atmospheric aerosols in this warming, recent past (1990–2014) and future (2015–2050) simulations have been carried out using the GISS-E2.1 Earth system model to study the aerosol burdens and their radiative and climate impacts over the Arctic (>60°N), using anthropogenic emissions from the Eclipse V6b and the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6) databases, while global annual mean greenhouse gas concentrations were prescribed and kept fixed in all simulations. Results showed that the simulations have underestimated observed surface aerosol levels, in particular black carbon (BC) and sulfate (SO2−4), by more than 50 %, with the smallest biases calculated for the atmosphere-only simulations, where winds are nudged to reanalysis data. CMIP6 simulations performed slightly better in reproducing the observed surface aerosol concentrations and climate parameters, compared to the Eclipse simulations. In addition, simulations where atmosphere and ocean are fully coupled had slightly smaller biases in aerosol levels compared to atmosphere-only simulations without nudging. Arctic BC, organic aerosol (OA), and SO2−4 burdens decrease significantly in all simulations by 10 %–60 % following the reductions of 7 %–78 % in emission projections, with the Eclipse ensemble showing larger reductions in Arctic aerosol burdens compared to the CMIP6 ensemble. For the 2030–2050 period, the Eclipse ensemble simulated a radiative forcing due to aerosol–radiation interactions (RFARI) of −0.39 ± 0.01 W/sq. m, which is −0.08 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing (−0.32 W/sq. m), of which −0.24 ± 0.01 W/sq. m was attributed to the anthropogenic aerosols. The CMIP6 ensemble simulated a RFARI of −0.35 to −0.40 W/sq. m for the same period, which is −0.01 to −0.06 W/sq. m larger than the 1990–2010 mean forcing of −0.35 W/sq. m. The scenarios with little to no mitigation (worst-case scenarios) led to very small changes in the RFARI, while scenarios with medium to large emission mitigations led to increases in the negative RFARI, mainly due to the decrease in the positive BC forcing and the decrease in the negative SO2−4 forcing. The anthropogenic aerosols accounted for −0.24 to −0.26 W/sq. m of the net RFARI in 2030–2050 period, in Eclipse and CMIP6 ensembles, respectively. Finally, all simulations showed an increase in the Arctic surface air temperatures throughout the simulation period. By 2050, surface air temperatures are projected to increase by 2.4 to 2.6 °C in the Eclipse ensemble and 1.9 to 2.6 °C in the CMIP6 ensemble, compared to the 1990–2010 mean. Overall, results show that even the scenarios with largest emission reductions leads to similar impact on the future Arctic surface air temperatures and sea-ice extent compared to scenarios with smaller emission reductions, implying reductions of greenhouse emissions are still necessary to mitigate climate change.

Aerosols↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Are You In or Out: the Influence of Sea Ice Drift on Sea Ice Survivability

The state of Arctic sea ice influences aspects of many global systems including ecosystems, economies, geopolitics, and climate. And, it is in severe decline. Numerous studies have considered the factors that influence Arctic sea ice decline using monthly mean or gridded data. However, these methods struggle to cleanly separate the influences on sea ice melt because the sea ice cover is always moving; thus, different sea ice floes and sea ice regimes constitute the monthly average sea ice state within the Eulerian frame. This study uses a LaGrangian sea ice parcel tracking satellite database to investigate the factors that influence sea ice parcel survivability. The concept of sea ice survivability is defined as the likelihood that a sea ice parcel will last through the summer melt season. Survivability can be stratified in many ways to analyze how it changes as a function of sea ice regime, region, and sea ice characteristics. How is the survivability of first year (FY) and multi-year (MY) ice classes influenced by sea ice motion? This is the central question addressed in this presentation. Specifically, this analysis determines sea ice survivability as a function of distance traveled by sea ice parcels and compares the survivability statistics for sea ice parcels that stay in their starting region versus those that leave their starting region. The preliminary results indicate that the influence of sea ice movement on survivability depends strongly on which region the sea ice resides in at the beginning of the growth season. Lastly, we find substantial inter-annual variability in the regional distribution of sea ice survivability that seems to be strongly linked to sea ice parcel drift between regions of the Arctic Ocean. Moreover, we use these results to discuss the potential contribution of changes in sea ice motion on the observed slowdown in Arctic sea ice extent loss.

Patrick C Taylor↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Visualizing Geospatial Data through ESRI Story Maps for Earth Science Education: Lessons Learned from My NASA Data

For 20 years My NASA Data (MND) has curated NASA Earth science data and provided the data to educators in engaging learner-centered resources. MND has recently featured story maps as an innovative way to engage students in NASA Earth data. A story map is a cloud-based lesson that engages the learner in interactive geospatial maps using NASA data, and other multimedia content, text, and tasks that can be seamlessly incorporated in classroom instruction. This immersive technology eliminates the need for the user to move among tricky interfaces to access and visualize Earth science data, and no special software is required to be downloaded. Each story map integrates data from different NASA satellite missions, retrieved from Distributed Active Archive Centers (DAACs). Story maps also employ data analysis tools, such as time series options and swipe tools that allow learners to view and analyze relationships between scientific variables. MND has produced 25 story map lesson plans on the topics of air quality, the urban heat island effect, Earth’s energy budget, phytoplankton distribution, hurricane formation, solar eclipses, ocean circulation patterns, sea ice extent, and volcanic eruptions. Nine of them are extended story maps and written in the 5E format, which is internationally recognized as best practice based on how children learn science. Each story map resource is developed by the MND team featuring a GIS programming specialist, a lead scientist, and educational specialist/s to ensure the context, content, and methods are scientifically and educationally sound. The MND story maps are written for middle and high school science teachers and students as they connect with the Earth Systems Science phenomena featured in the Next Generation Science Standards. Each story map includes supporting resources for smooth integration in the classroom. During Fiscal Year 2023, The My NASA Data website received over 100,000 story map engagements during. These metrics highlight the interest in story maps as an Earth Science educational resource.

Desiray Wilson↗
NASA NTRS2016

Arctic Sea Ice Simulation in the PlioMIP Ensemble

Eight general circulation models have simulated the mid-Pliocene warm period (mid-Pliocene, 3.264 to 3.025 Ma) as part of the Pliocene Modelling Intercomparison Project (PlioMIP). Here, we analyse and compare their simulation of Arctic sea ice for both the pre-industrial period and the mid-Pliocene. Mid-Pliocene sea ice thickness and extent is reduced, and the model spread of extent is more than twice the pre-industrial spread in some summer months. Half of the PlioMIP models simulate ice-free conditions in the mid-Pliocene. This spread amongst the ensemble is in line with the uncertainties amongst proxy reconstructions for mid-Pliocene sea ice extent. Correlations between mid-Pliocene Arctic temperatures and sea ice extents are almost twice as strong as the equivalent correlations for the pre-industrial simulations. The need for more comprehensive sea ice proxy data is highlighted, in order to better compare model performances.

simulation↗
DOE OSTI2020

Arctic Tipping Points Triggering Global Change (LDRD Final Report)

The Arctic is warming and feedbacks in the coupled Earth system may be driving the Arctic to tipping events that could have critical downstream impacts for the rest of the globe. In this project we have focused on analyzing sea ice variability and loss in the coupled Earth system Summer sea ice loss is happening rapidly and although the loss may be smooth and reversible, it has significant consequences for other Arctic systems as well as geopolitical and economic implications. Accurate seasonal predictions of sea ice minimum extent and long-term estimates of timing for a seasonally ice-free Arctic depend on a better understanding of the factors influencing sea ice dynamics and variation in this strongly coupled system. Under this project we have investigated the most influential factors in accurate predictions of September Arctic sea ice extent using machine learning models trained separately on observational data and on simulation data from five E3SM historical ensembles. Monthly averaged data from June, July, and August for a selection of ice, ocean, and atmosphere variables were used to train a random forest regression model. Gini importance measures were computed for each input feature with the testing data. We found that sea ice volume is most important earlier in the season (June) and sea ice extent became a more important predictor closer to September. Results from this study provide insight into how feature importance changes with forecast length and illustrates differences between observational data and simulated Earth system data. We have additionally performed a global sensitivity analysis (GSA) using a fully coupled ultra- low resolution configuration E3SM. To our knowledge, this is the first global sensitivity analysis involving the fully-coupled E3SM Earth system model. We have found that parameter variations show significant impact on the Arctic climate state and atmospheric parameters related to cloud parameterizations are the most significant. We also find significant interactions between parameters from different components of E3SM. The results of this study provide invaluable insight into the relative importance of various parameters from the sea ice, atmosphere and ocean components of the E3SM (including cross-component parameter interactions) on various Arctic-focused quantities of interest (QOIs).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1991

Recent variations in Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice covers

Variations in the extents of sea-ice cover at the poles and the areas of open water enclosed within them were observed every other day during the interval 1978-1987 by a satellite-borne scanning multispectral microwave radiometer. A band-limited regression technique shows that the trends in coverage of the Arctic and Antarctic sea-ice packs are not the same. During these nine years, there are significant decreases in ice extent and open-water areas within the ice cover in the Arctic, whereas in the Antarctic, there are no significant trends.

Gloersen, Per↗