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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Sea Level-Driven Marsh Migration Results in Rapid Net Loss of Carbon

Sea level rise alters coastal carbon cycling by driving the rapid migration of coastal ecosystems, salinization of freshwater systems, and replacement of terrestrial forests with tidal wetlands. Wetland soils accumulate carbon (C) at faster rates than terrestrial soils, implying that sea level rise may lead to enhanced carbon accumulation. Here, we show that carbon stored in tree biomass greatly exceeds carbon stored in adjacent marsh soils so that marsh migration reduces total carbon stocks by ~50% in less than 100 years. Continued marsh soil carbon accumulation may eventually offset forest carbon loss, but we estimate that the time for replacement is similar to estimates of marsh survival (i.e., centuries), which suggests that forest C may never be replaced. These findings reveal a critical C source not included in coastal C budgets driven by migrating ecosystems and rapidly shifting allocations between carbon stored in soils and biomass.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2023

A computationally efficient statistically downscaled 100 m resolution Greenland product from the regional climate model MAR

The Greenland Ice Sheet (GrIS) has been contributing directly to sea level rise, and this contribution is projected to accelerate over the next decades. A crucial tool for studying the evolution of surface mass loss (e.g., surface mass balance, SMB) consists of regional climate models (RCMs), which can provide current estimates and future projections of sea level rise associated with such losses. However, one of the main limitations of RCMs is the relatively coarse horizontal spatial resolution at which outputs are currently generated. Here, we report results concerning the statistical downscaling of the SMB modeled by the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) RCM from the original spatial resolution of 6 km to 100 m building on the relationship between elevation and mass losses in Greenland. To this goal, we developed a geospatial framework that allows the parallelization of the downscaling process, a crucial aspect to increase the computational efficiency of the algorithm. Using the results obtained in the case of the SMB, surface and air temperature are assessed through the comparison of the modeled outputs with in situ and satellite measurement. The downscaled products show a considerable improvement in the case of the downscaled product with respect to the original coarse output, with the coefficient of determination (R 2 ) increasing from 0.868 for the original MAR output to 0.935 for the SMB downscaled product. Moreover, the value of the slope and intercept of the linear regression fitting modeled and measured SMB values shifts from 0.865 for the original MAR to 1.015 for the downscaled product in the case of the slope and from the value −235 mm w.e. yr -1 (original) to −57 mm w.e. yr -1 (downscaled) in the case of the intercept, considerably improving upon results previously published in the literature.

Greenland Ice Sheet↗
DOE OSTI2026

Compound flood simulations indicate rising public exposure to sewage-contaminated waters in Waikīkī, Hawai‘i

Waikīkī, Hawai‘i serves as a valuable case study for flood vulnerability due to its low elevation, present-day exposure to multiple flood sources, and role as the state’s economic engine. This study applies the high-resolution, open-source WRF-Hydro-CUFA (Coastal Urban Flood Application) model to simulate compound flood interactions among pluvial, fluvial, coastal, storm drain-driven, and subsurface processes, and to evaluate how flood characteristics in Waikīkī evolve under projected sea-level rise (SLR). Simulated water levels in an estuarine drainage canal, serving as the primary outlet for gravity-flow drainage from Waikīkī, show strong agreement with observations (r ≥ 0.935, R 2 ≥ 0.874), accurately reproducing flooding observed during recent 5-year and 50-year storm events. Simulations incorporating SLR demonstrate a shift in dominant flood drivers as sea levels rise. In addition, results identify critical thresholds at which elevated estuarine tailwater conditions cause widespread drainage backflow, eventually occurring in the absence of rainfall. These findings suggest that tidally driven flooding will progressively dominate over rainfall-driven events, increasing public exposure to highly contaminated canal and groundwater sources. The results underscore the urgent need to integrate water quality issues and drainage failure into coastal flood management strategies for low-lying urban environments, particularly those reliant on polluted estuarine waterways for stormwater management.

Compound flooding↗
NASA NTRS2022

Accelerating Ice Loss From Peripheral Glaciers in North Greenland

In recent decades, Greenland's peripheral glaciers have experienced large-scale mass loss, resulting in a substantial contribution to sea level rise. While their total area of Greenland ice cover is relatively small (4%), their mass loss is disproportionally large compared to the Greenland ice sheet. Satellite altimetry from Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and ICESat-2 shows that mass loss from Greenland's peripheral glaciers increased from 27.2 ± 6.2 Gt/yr (February 2003–October 2009) to 42.3 ± 6.2 Gt/yr (October 2018–December 2021). These relatively small glaciers now constitute 11 ± 2% of Greenland's ice loss and contribute to global sea level rise. In the period October 2018–December 2021, mass loss increased by a factor of four for peripheral glaciers in North Greenland. While peripheral glacier mass loss is widespread, we also observe a complex regional pattern where increases in precipitation at high altitudes have partially counteracted increases in melt at low altitude.

Greenland↗
DOE OSTI2021

Arctic Ice Nucleation Sampling during MOSAiC (INPMOSAIC2) Field Campaign Report

The accelerated rate of warming in the Arctic is of great concern due to potential impacts that include release of greenhouse gases from permafrost, melting glacial ice contributing to sea level rise, and declining sea ice cover exposing the darker ocean surface. These processes induce positive feedbacks and contribute to further warming that affects climate globally. Clouds play a crucial role in regulating the energy reaching the sea ice and snow surfaces, but the magnitude of their effects on surface temperature is not well constrained in the Arctic. Aerosols are an important contributor by serving as seeds for cloud particle formation, but even less is known about their overall impact and origin. In particular, aerosols that serve as ice nucleating particles (INPs) are vastly understudied, especially above the central Arctic Ocean. However, INPs likely play a significant role in arctic mixed-phase cloud (AMPC) microphysics and the resulting impacts of such clouds on the surface energy budget over the sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2024

A Decade of Salt Marsh Elevation Change in New York City’s Coastal Urban Parks

Coastal salt marshes of the eastern United States are particularly vulnerable to accelerated sea level rise, and urban marshes are at greater risk of erosion, inundation, and conversion to mudflat if left unmanaged. To guide New York City (NYC) salt marsh restoration strategies, NYC Parks collected up to 10 years of salt marsh elevation change data through 2020 at six salt marsh sites using the Surface Elevation Table-Marker Horizon (SET-MH) method, conducted a salt marsh trends analysis to determine shoreline change from 1974 to 2012, and conducted a salt marsh conditions assessment. We found that the citywide average surface elevation trend of 3.31 mm yr −1 was not significantly different from the 30-year (1990–2020) Relative Sea Level Rise of 4.23 mm yr −1 at The Battery, NY, tide station, probably due to high variability across and within sites. We also found that accretion rates differed across sites and watersheds, and sites situated lower in the tidal zone had higher accretion rates. Notably, Jamaica Bay’s Idlewild salt marsh, long suspected of being sediment-starved and ranking lowest in our conditions assessment, had the highest accretion rate at 9.5 mm yr −1 . Our salt marsh trends analysis also showed marsh loss at the shoreline edge, bare ground cover, and other indicators of marsh degradation. In mitigating marsh loss, the design grades for our recent wetland restoration projects enlarge the upper elevation ranges of the low- and high-marsh zones and incorporate wider and more gradual slopes in upland transition zones to enable inland marsh migration.

Salt marsh elevation change↗
DOE OSTI2022

Detecting Coastal Wetland Degradation by Combining Remote Sensing and Hydrologic Modeling

Sea-level rise and climate change stresses pose increasing threats to coastal wetlands that are vital to wildlife habitats, carbon sequestration, water supply, and other ecosystem services with global significance. However, existing studies are limited in individual sites, and large-scale mapping of coastal wetland degradation patterns over a long period is rare. Our study developed a new framework to detect spatial and temporal patterns of coastal wetland degradation by analyzing fine-scale, long-term remotely sensed Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data. Then, this framework was tested to track the degradation of coastal wetlands at the Alligator River National Wildlife Refuge (ARNWR) in North Carolina, United States, during the period from 1995 to 2019. We identified six types of coastal wetland degradation in the study area. Most of the detected degradation was located within 2 km from the shoreline and occurred in the past five years. Further, we used a state-of-the-art coastal hydrologic model, PIHM-Wetland, to investigate key hydrologic processes/variables that control the coastal wetland degradation. The temporal and spatial distributions of simulated coastal flooding and saltwater intrusion confirmed the location and timing of wetland degradation detected by remote sensing. The combined method also quantified the possible critical thresholds of water tables for wetland degradation. The remote sensing–hydrologic model integrated scheme proposed in this study provides a new tool for detecting and understanding coastal wetland degradation mechanisms. Our study approach can also be extended to other coastal wetland regions to understand how climate change and sea-level rise impact wetland transformations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2021

Surface Melting Over the Greenland Ice Sheet Derived From Enhanced Resolution Passive Microwave Brightness Temperatures (1979–2019)

Surface melting is a major component of the Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance, and it affects sea level rise through direct runoff and the modulation of ice dynamics and hydrological processes, supraglacially, englacially and subglacially. Passive microwave (PMW) brightness temperature observations are of paramount importance in studying the spatial and temporal evolution of surface melting due to their long temporal coverage (1979–present) and high temporal resolution (daily). However, a major limitation of PMW datasets has been the relatively coarse spatial resolution, which has historically been of the order of tens of kilometers. Here, we use a newly released PMW dataset (37 GHz, horizontal polarization) made available through a NASA “Making Earth System Data Records for Use in Research Environments” (MeASUREs) program to study the spatiotemporal evolution of surface melting over the Greenland ice sheet at an enhanced spatial resolution of 3.125 km. We assess the outputs of different detection algorithms using data collected by automatic weather stations (AWSs) and the outputs of the Modèle Atmosphérique Régional (MAR) regional climate model. We found that sporadic melting is well captured using a dynamic algorithm based on the outputs of the Microwave Emission Model of Layered Snowpack (MEMLS), whereas a fixed threshold of 245 K is capable of detecting persistent melt. Our results indicate that, during the reference period from 1979 to 2019 (from 1988 to 2019), surface melting over the ice sheet increased in terms of both duration, up to 4.5 (2.9) d per decade, and extension, up to 6.9 % (3.6 %) of the entire ice sheet surface extent per decade, according to the MEMLS algorithm. Furthermore, the melting season started up to 4.0 (2.5) d earlier and ended 7.0 (3.9) d later per decade. We also explored the information content of the enhanced-resolution dataset with respect to the one at 25 km and MAR outputs using a semi-variogram approach. We found that the enhanced product is more sensitive to local-scale processes, thereby confirming the potential of this new enhanced product for monitoring surface melting over Greenland at a higher spatial resolution than the historical products and for monitoring its impact on sea level rise. This offers the opportunity to improve our understanding of the processes driving melting, to validate modeled melt extent at high resolution and, potentially, to assimilate these data in climate models.

Surface melting↗
NASA NTRS2011

Deep Ocean Warming Assessed from Altimeters, GRACE, 3 In-situ Measurements, and a Non-Boussinesq OGCM

Observational surveys have shown significant oceanic bottom water warming, but they are too spatially and temporally sporadic to quantify the deep ocean contribution to the present-day sea level rise (SLR). In this study, altimetry sea surface height (SSH), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) ocean mass, and in situ upper ocean (0-700 m) steric height have been assessed for their seasonal variability and trend maps. It is shown that neither the global mean nor the regional trends of altimetry SLR can be explained by the upper ocean steric height plus the GRACE ocean mass. A non-Boussinesq ocean general circulation model (OGCM), allowing the sea level to rise as a direct response to the heat added into the ocean, is then used to diagnose the deep ocean steric height. Constrained by sea surface temperature data and the top of atmosphere (TOA) radiation measurements, the model reproduces the observed upper ocean heat content well. Combining the modeled deep ocean steric height with observational upper ocean data gives the full depth steric height. Adding a GRACE-estimated mass trend, the data-model combination explains not only the altimetry global mean SLR but also its regional trends fairly well. The deep ocean warming is mostly prevalent in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, and along the Antarctic Circumpolar Current, suggesting a strong relation to the oceanic circulation and dynamics. Its comparison with available bottom water measurements shows reasonably good agreement, indicating that deep ocean warming below 700 m might have contributed 1.1 mm/yr to the global mean SLR or one-third of the altimeter-observed rate of 3.11 +/- 0.6 mm/yr over 1993-2008.

sea level↗
NASA NTRS1992

Sea level variation

Published values for the long-term, global mean sea level rise determined from tide gauge records range from about one to three mm per year. The scatter of the estimates appears to arise largely from the use of data from gauges located at convergent tectonic plate boundaries where changes of land elevation give fictitious sea level trends, and the effects of large interdecadal and longer sea level variations on short (less than 50+ years) or sappy records. In addition, virtually all gauges undergo subsidence or uplift due to isostatic rebound from the last deglaciation at a rate comparable to or greater than the secular rise of sea level. Modeling rebound by the ICE-3G model of Tushingham and Peltier (1990) and avoiding tide gauge records in areas of converging tectonic plates produces a highly consistent set of long sea level records. A global set of 21 such stations in nine oceanic regions with an average record length of 76 years during the period 1880-1980 yields the global sea level rise value 1.8 mm/year +/- 0.1. Greenhouse warming scenarios commonly forecast an additional acceleration of global sea level in the next 5 or 6+ decades in the range 0.1-0.2 mm/yr2. Because of the large power at low frequencies in the sea level spectrum, very long tide gauge records (75 years minimum) have been examined for past apparent sea level acceleration. For the 80-year period 1905-1985, 23 essentially complete tide gauge records in 10 geographic groups are available for analysis. These yielded the apparent global acceleration -0.011 (+/- 0.012) mm/yr2. A larger, less uniform set of 37 records in the same 10 groups with 92 years average length covering the 141 years from 1850-1991 gave 0.001 (+/- 0.008) mm/yr2. Thus there is no evidence for an apparent acceleration in the past 100+ years that is significant either statistically, or in comparison to values associated with global warming. Unfortunately, the large interdecadal fluctuations of sea level severely affect estimates of global sea level acceleration for time spans of less than about 50 years. This means that tide gauges alone cannot serve as a reliable leading indicator of climate change in less than many decades. This time required can be significantly reduced if the interdecadal fluctuations of sea level can be understood in terms of their forcing mechanisms, and then removed from the tide gauge records.

Douglas, Bruce C.↗
DOE OSTI2022

Tidal frequencies and quasiperiodic subsurface water level variations dominate redox dynamics in a salt marsh system

Salt marshes are hotspots of nutrient processing en route to sensitive coastal environments. Whilst our understanding of these systems has improved over the years, we still have limited knowledge of the spatiotemporal variability of critical biogeochemical drivers within salt marshes. Sea-level rise will continue to force change on salt marsh functioning, highlighting the urgency of filling this knowledge gap. Our study was conducted in a central California estuary experiencing extensive marsh drowning and relative sea-level rise, making it a model system for such an investigation. Here we instrumented three marsh positions subjected to different degrees of tidal inundation (6.7%, 8.9%, and 11.2% of the time for the upper, middle, and lower marsh positions, respectively), providing locations with varied biogeochemical characteristics and hydrological interactions at the site. We continuously monitored redox potential (Eh) at depths of 0.1, 0.3, and 0.5 m, subsurface water levels (WL), and temperature at 0.7 m depth at each marsh position. To understand how drivers of subsurface biogeochemical processes fluctuate across tidal cycles, we used wavelet analyses to explain the interactions between Eh and WL. We found that tidal forcing significantly affects key drivers of biogeochemical processes by imparting controls on Eh variability, likely driving subsurface hydro-biogeochemistry of the salt marsh. Wavelet coherence showed that the Eh-WL relationship is nonlinear, and their lead–lag relationship is variable. We found that precipitation events perturb Eh at depth over timescales of hours, even though WL shows relatively minimal change during events. Furthermore, this work highlights the importance of high frequency in situ measurements, such as Eh, to help explain factors that govern subsurface biogeochemistry and hydrological processes in salt marshes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

Interannual Sea Level Variations in the Tropical Indian Ocean from Geosat and Shallow Water Simulations

Sea level variations of the Indian Ocean north of 20 deg S are analyzed from Geosat satellite altimeter data over April 1985-September 1989. These variations are compared and interpreted with numerical simulations derived from a reduced gravity model forced by FSU observed winds over the same period. After decomposition into complex empirical orthogonal functions, the low-frequency anomalies are described by the first two modes for observations as well as for simulations. The sums of the two modes contain 34% and 40% of the observed and simulated variances, respectively. Averaged over the basin, the observed and simulated sea level changes are correlated by 0.92 over 1985-1988. The strongest change happens during the El Ninio 1986-1987: between winter 1986 and summer 1987 the basin-averaged sea level rises by approx. 1 cm. These low-frequency variations can partly be explained by changes in the Sverdrup circulation. The southern tropical Indian Ocean between 1O deg and 20 deg S is the domain where those changes are strongest: the averaged sea level rises by approx. 4.5 cm between winter 1986 and winter 1987. There, the signal propagates southwestward across the basin at a speed similar to free Rossby waves. Sensitivity of observed anomalies is examined over 1987-1988, with different orbit ephemeris, tropospheric corrections, and error reduction processes. The uncertainty of the basin-averaged sea level estimates is mostly due to the way the orbit error is reduced and reaches approx. 1 cm. Nonetheless, spatial correlation is good between the various observations and better than between observations and simulations. Sensitivity of simulated anomalies to the wind uncertainty, examined with Former Soviet Union (FSU) and European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) forcings over 1985-1988, shows that the variance of the simulations driven by ECMWF is 52% smaller, as FSU winds are stronger than ECMWF. Results show that the wind strength also affects the dynamic response of the ocean: anomalies propagate westward across the basin more than twice as fast with FSU than with ECMWF. It is found that the discrepancy is larger between ECMWF and FSU simulations than between observations and FSU simulations.

Perigaud, Claire↗
NASA NTRS2015

A 12,000-Yr Pollen Record off Cape Hatteras: Pollen Sources and Mechanisms of Pollen Dispersion

Integrating both marine and terrestrial signals from the same sediment core is one of the primary challenges for understanding the role of ocean-atmosphere coupling throughout past climate changes. It is therefore vital to understand how the pollen signal of a given marine record reflects the vegetation changes of the neighboring continent. The comparison between the pollen record of marine core JPC32 (KNR178JPC32) and available terrestrial pollen sequences from eastern North America over the last 12,170 years indicates that the pollen signature off Cape Hatteras gives an integrated image of the regional vegetation encompassing the Pee Dee river, Chesapeake and Delaware hydrographic basins and is reliable in reconstructing the past climate of the adjacent continent. Extremely high quantities of pollen grains included in the marine sediments off Cape Hatteras were transferred from the continent to the sea, at intervals 10,100-8800 cal yr BP, 8300-7500 cal yr BP, 5800- 4300 cal yr BP and 2100-730 cal yr BP, during storm events favored by episodes of rapid sea-level rise in the eastern coast of US. In contrast, pollen grains export was reduced during 12,170-10,150 cal yr BP and 4200- 2200 cal yr BP, during episodes of intense continental dryness and slow sea level rise episodes or lowstands in the eastern coast of US. The near absence of reworked pollen grains in core JPC32 contrasts with the high quantity of reworked material in nearby but deeper located marine sites, suggesting that the JPC32 recordwas not affected by the DeepWestern Boundary Current (DWBC) since the end of the Younger Dryas and should be considered a key site for studying past climate changes in the western North Atlantic.

climate change↗
NASA NTRS2013

Extensive Liquid Meltwater Storage in Firn Within the Greenland Ice Sheet

The accelerating loss of mass from the Greenland ice sheet is a major contribution to current sea level rise. Increased melt water runoff is responsible for half of Greenlands mass loss increase. Surface melt has been increasing in extent and intensity, setting a record for surface area melt and runoff in 2012. The mechanisms and timescales involved in allowing surface melt water to reach the ocean where it can contribute to sea level rise are poorly understood. The potential capacity to store this water in liquid or frozen form in the firn (multi-year snow layer) is significant, and could delay its sea-level contribution. Here we describe direct observation of water within a perennial firn aquifer persisting throughout the winter in the southern ice sheet,where snow accumulation and melt rates are high. This represents a previously unknown storagemode for water within the ice sheet. Ice cores, groundairborne radar and a regional climatemodel are used to estimate aquifer area (70 plue or minus 10 x 10(exp 3) square kilometers ) and water table depth (5-50 m). The perennial firn aquifer represents a new glacier facies to be considered 29 in future ice sheet mass 30 and energy budget calculations.

meltwater↗
DOE OSTI2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: a multi-model ensemble of the Antarctic ice sheet evolution over the 21st century

Abstract. Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between −7.8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica mass change varies between −6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28 mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2020

ISMIP6 Antarctica: A Multi-Model Ensemble of the Antarctic Ice Sheet Evolution Over the 21st Century

Ice flow models of the Antarctic ice sheet are commonly used to simulate its future evolution in response to different climate scenarios and assess the mass loss that would contribute to future sea level rise. However, there is currently no consensus on estimates of the future mass balance of the ice sheet, primarily because of differences in the representation of physical processes, forcings employed and initial states of ice sheet models. This study presents results from ice flow model simulations from 13 international groups focusing on the evolution of the Antarctic ice sheet during the period 2015–2100 as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). They are forced with outputs from a subset of models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5), representative of the spread in climate model results. Simulations of the Antarctic ice sheet contribution to sea level rise in response to increased warming during this period varies between -7:8 and 30.0 cm of sea level equivalent (SLE) under Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario forcing. These numbers are relative to a control experiment with constant climate conditions and should therefore be added to the mass loss contribution under climate conditions similar to present-day conditions over the same period. The simulated evolution of the West Antarctic ice sheet varies widely among models, with an overall mass loss, up to 18.0 cm SLE, in response to changes in oceanic conditions. East Antarctica ass change varies between -6.1 and 8.3 cm SLE in the simulations, with a significant increase in surface mass balance outweighing the increased ice discharge under most RCP 8.5 scenario forcings. The inclusion of ice shelf collapse, here assumed to be caused by large amounts of liquid water ponding at the surface of ice shelves, yields an additional simulated mass loss of 28mm compared to simulations without ice shelf collapse. The largest sources of uncertainty come from the climate forcing, the ocean-induced melt rates, the calibration of these melt rates based on oceanic conditions taken outside of ice shelf cavities and the ice sheet dynamic response to these oceanic changes. Results under RCP 2.6 scenario based on two CMIP5 climate models show an additional mass loss of 0 and 3 cm of SLE on average compared to simulations done under present-day conditions for the two CMIP5 forcings used and display limited mass gain in East Antarctica.

Hélène Seroussi↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Blue Carbon Stock Estimation of US Coastal Marshes from New York to Georgia How Much Do We Have to Lose?

Valued for their myriad multifunctional roles in preserving habitat for biodiversity, cycling nutrients, protecting shorelines, improving water quality, and sequestering blue carbon, coastal and riverine marshes continue to disappear not only due to land use change but also sea level rise. Blue carbon’s role in the carbon cycle has been underappreciated until the last few decades, and the carbon stocks for U.S. Atlantic coastal margins have previously been estimated for a depth of 0.5-1 meter. We select several North American East Coast databases that have been utilized to study sea level rise and instead use them to estimate marsh depth from New York to Georgia; in local marshes that lack depth data, we present new depth data and perform several full-depth transects. This alongside marsh area data from the National Wetlands Inventory (NWI) enables us to estimate marsh volume. We then utilize an average carbon density of 27 kg/m 3 by Holmquist et al. 2018 to calculate blue carbon stocks. We present the inventories of peat depth by state, marsh area by state, and total marsh volume by state, followed by the blue carbon stocks. The peat depth inventory of eastern U.S. marshes reveals that riverine marshes are significantly deeper than coastal marshes. While both are important, we highlight the jeopardy of rapidly eroding urban marshes due to the heavy metals these marshes have sequestered for centuries as they contaminate the surrounding estuary. Uncertainties and caveats include carbon density values, loss of marsh since the NWI assessment, and depth averages. The high cost of marsh disappearance underscores the urgent need for their preservation.

Coastal marshes↗
DOE OSTI2020

Changes in Physical Properties of Everglades Peat Soils Induced by Increased Salinity at the Laboratory Scale: Implications for Changes in Biogenic Gas Dynamics

Abstract Saltwater intrusion due to sea level rise is a major concern for the Florida Everglades because it may induce shifts in ecosystem productivity and physical soil properties. However, the effects of saline water intrusion into the current carbon gas dynamics of the Everglades (particularly in terms of biogenic gas production and emissions, i.e., CH 4 and CO 2 ) are still uncertain. In this work, we present a laboratory‐based study to simulate how sea level rise may alter the physical properties (i.e., hydraulic conductivity) of peat soils from the Everglades and consequently affect the accumulation and release of biogenic gases within the peat matrix. Peat monoliths collected from the Everglades were subjected to progressive increases in salinity from a NaCl solution, and changes to the biogenic gas dynamics regime were simultaneously monitored using a combination of time‐lapse ground‐penetrating radar measurements, manometers, time‐lapse photography, and gas traps. Physical changes to the peat matrix at each salinity interval were assessed using constant head permeameter tests. Consistent with previous research, results show that a progressive increase in salinity (from fresh to saltwater) results in (1) a progressive increase in hydraulic conductivity and (2) a progressive decrease in gas content within the peat matrix (i.e., production) and gas releases. This work has implications for better understanding the potential effects of saltwater intrusion into freshwater peatland systems in the Everglades, particularly in terms of carbon gas dynamics.

Sirianni, Matthew J.↗