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At least 163 records · Page 9

Physics informed neural network can retrieve rate and state friction parameters from acoustic monitoring of laboratory stick-slip experiments

Various machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) techniques have been recently applied to the forecasting of laboratory earthquakes from friction experiments. The magnitude and timing of shear failures in stick-slip cycles are predicted using features extracted from the recorded ultrasonic or acoustic emission (AE) signals. In addition, the Rate and State Friction (RSF) constitutive laws are extensively used to model the frictional behavior of faults. In this work, we use data from shear experiments coupled with passive acoustic (variance, kurtosis, and AE rate) interleaved with active source ultrasonic monitoring (transmitted wave amplitude) to develop physics-informed neural network (PINN) models incorporating the RSF law and AE rate generation equation with wave amplitude serving as a proxy for friction state variable. This PINN framework allows learning RSF parameters from stick-slip experiments rather than measuring them through a series of velocity step experiments. We observe that when the stick-slip cycles are irregular, the PINN models outperform the data-driven DL models. Transfer learning (TL) PINN models are also developed by pre-training on data collected at one normal stress level followed by forecasting shear failures and retrieving RSF parameters at other stress levels (i.e., with different recurrence intervals) after retraining on a limited amount of new data. Our findings suggest that TL models perform better compared to standalone models. Both standalone and TL PINN-estimated RSF parameters and their ground truth values show excellent agreements thus demonstrating that RSF parameters can be retrieved from laboratory stick-slip experiments using the corresponding acoustic data and that the transmitted wave amplitude provides a good representation of the evolving frictional state during stick-slips.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Induced seismicity and geothermal energy production in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field, California

We analyze the relationship between geothermal energy production and seismic hazards in the Salton Sea Geothermal Field (SSGF) between 1972 and 2022. A clear increase in seismic activity accompanies geothermal energy production and is greatest to the east of the Brawley fault, where the amount of injection exceeds the amount of production. We estimate that, whereas there was a 2% chance of a M6.07 earthquake nucleating inside the SSGF within a fifty-year period prior to energy production (pre-production), there is an equal probability that a M6.70 earthquake nucleates there in a fifty-year period during which historically average energy production conditions persist (syn-production). Similarly, we estimate a 2% chance of a M7.15 and M6.92 occurring in the broader Brawley Seismic Zone (excluding the SSGF) within a fifty-year period during the pre- and syn-production eras, respectively. We find that linear regression models fail to reliably forecast the background seismicity rate as a function of fluid production and injection.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Advances in geophysical forensic event monitoring

Forensic analysis of man-made, non-nuclear events (such as industrial accidents, explosion experiments and mine collapses) has become more frequent and detailed owing to advancements in geophysical monitoring. Here, in this Technical Review, we demonstrate how geophysical forensic monitoring using seismic, infrasound and hydroacoustic recordings provides insights on events in the solid earth, atmosphere and underwater. Advanced techniques, including machine-learning-based models, have been developed to detect, identify and investigate these events, providing information on location, subevents, sources and explosive yield. The increase in data availability, application of advanced methods and computation and the growth of multitechnology approaches have increased the accuracy of forensic event analysis and enabled more realistic characterization of uncertainties. For example, the 2020 Beirut explosion in Lebanon demonstrated that various seismic, acoustic and other methods could be used to estimate explosive yield (and yield uncertainties) of about 1 ktonne, providing confidence in the application of these methods to smaller events where data are available. However, forensic investigations remain largely limited to known events with identified sources. Increased access to data, sophisticated analysis methods and high-resolution earth models will improve forensic event analysis further, enabling civil and scientific applications, such as localization in the search for the lost ARA San Juan submarine.

geophysics↗

Estimation of the orientation of stress in the Earth’s crust without earthquake or borehole data

Abstract Mechanical stress acting in the Earth’s crust is a fundamental property that is important for a wide range of scientific and engineering applications. The orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress can be estimated by inverting earthquake source mechanisms and measured directly from borehole-based measurements, but large regions of the continents have few or no observations. Here we present an approach to determine the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress by measuring stress-induced anisotropy of nonlinear susceptibility, which is the derivative of elastic modulus with respect to strain. Laboratory and Earth experiments show that nonlinear susceptibility is azimuthally dependent in an anisotropic stress field and is maximum in the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress. We observe this behavior in the Earth—in Oklahoma and New Mexico, U.S.A, where maximum nonlinear susceptibility coincides with the orientation of maximum horizontal compressive stress measured using traditional methods. Our measurements use empirical Green’s functions and solid-earth tides and can be applied at different temporal and spatial scales.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

CO 2 rock physics modeling for reliable monitoring of geologic carbon storage

Monitoring, verification, and accounting (MVA) are crucial to ensure safe and long-term geologic carbon storage. Seismic monitoring is a key MVA technique that utilizes seismic data to infer elastic properties of CO 2 -saturated rocks. Reliable accounting of CO 2 in subsurface storage reservoirs and potential leakage zones requires an accurate rock physics model. However, the widely used CO 2 rock physics model based on the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation can substantially underestimate the influence of CO 2 saturation on seismic waves, leading to inaccurate accounting. We develop an accurate CO 2 rock physics model by accounting for both effects of the stress dependence of seismic velocities in porous rocks and CO 2 weakening on the rock framework. We validate our CO 2 rock physics model using the Kimberlina-1.2 model (a previously proposed geologic carbon storage site in California) and create time-lapse elastic property models with our new rock physics method. We compare the results with those obtained using the conventional Biot-Gassmann equation. Our innovative approach produces larger changes in elastic properties than the Biot-Gassmann results. Using our CO 2 rock physics model can replicate shear-wave speed reductions observed in the laboratory. Our rock physics model enhances the accuracy of time-lapse elastic-wave modeling and enables reliable CO 2 accounting using seismic monitoring.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Subsurface fluvial sediments beneath InSight on Mars from geophysical constraints

Subsurface structure investigation on Mars is crucial for understanding its geological evolution and past hydrological conditions. Elysium Planitia (EP), located near the hypothesized ancient ocean shorelines, could contain clues for past water activity and paleoclimate. Here we present better-constrained subsurface models beneath InSight extending to ~800 m depth, obtained from joint inversion of seismic and seismoacoustic coupling data, and use the well-resolved subsurface structure to explore the lithological profile through rock physics models. The derived subsurface lithology agrees well with local geological context and exhibits a shallow 60-m-thick low-rigidity layer consistent with hydrated sedimentary materials. Despite possible contributions of aeolian and volcanic deposits, we favor the interpretation that the low-rigidity layer originated from fluvial activity in EP during the Hesperian or Hesperian-to-Amazonian epoch, as supported by adjacent paleo-shoreline morphology observations. These results hint at a period of warmer paleoclimate at low latitudes, possibly during high-obliquity phases of Mars’ rotational axis.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic Characteristics of Multistory Buildings

In order to evaluate unit stresses or to estimate possible damage in multistory buildings from earthquake or ground motion from underground nuclear explosion it is essential to determine how much of the dynamic response at any level is due to various types of freedom. The effects of shear deformation between floors, joint rotation, over-all flexure, and ground compliance are considered. Joint rotation and over-all flexure are evaluated over a wide range of building characteristics with simply determined indices. Further, a period synthesis concept and a pseudo-stiffness procedure are proposed to enable the determination of periods, mode shapes and stiffnesses with consideration of joint rotation, over-all flexure and ground compliance while performing simple labor-saving analyses for assumed rigid-floor shear buildings. The first three modes of vibration are considered in elastic free vibration. The buildings and models are symmetric in plan without torsional coupling.

42 ENGINEERING↗

A method to fuse multiphysics waveforms and improve predictive explosion detection: theory, experiment and performance

Natural and human-made sources of transient energy often emit multiple geophysical signatures that include mechanical and electromagnetic waveforms. We present a constructive method to fuse and evaluate statistics that we derive from such multiphysics waveforms that improves our capability to detect small, near-ground explosions over similar methods that consume single signature waveforms. Our method advances Fisher's Combined Probability Test (Fisher's Method) to operate under both hypotheses of a binary test on noisy data and provide researchers with the density functions required to forecast the ability of Fisher's Method to screen fused explosion signatures from noise. We apply this method against 12 d, multisignature explosion and noise records to show (1) that a fused multiphysics waveform statistic that combines radio, acoustic and seismic waveform data can identify explosions roughly 0.8 magnitude units lower than an acoustic emission, STA/LTA detector for the same detection probability and (2) that we can quantitatively predict how this fused, multiphysics statistic performs with Fisher's Method. Our work thereby offers a baseline method for predictive waveform fusion that supports multiphenomenological explosion monitoring (multiPEM) and is applicable to any binary testing problem in observational geophysics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Global adjoint tomography—model GLAD-M25

SUMMARY Building on global adjoint tomography model GLAD-M15, we present transversely isotropic global model GLAD-M25, which is the result of 10 quasi-Newton tomographic iterations with an earthquake database consisting of 1480 events in the magnitude range 5.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7.2, an almost sixfold increase over the first-generation model. We calculated fully 3-D synthetic seismograms with a shortest period of 17 s based on a GPU-accelerated spectral-element wave propagation solver which accommodates effects due to 3-D anelastic crust and mantle structure, topography and bathymetry, the ocean load, ellipticity, rotation and self-gravitation. We used an adjoint-state method to calculate Fréchet derivatives in 3-D anelastic Earth models facilitated by a parsimonious storage algorithm. The simulations were performed on the Cray XK7 ‘Titan’ and the IBM Power 9 ‘Summit’ at the Oak Ridge Leadership Computing Facility. We quantitatively evaluated GLAD-M25 by assessing misfit reductions and traveltime anomaly histograms in 12 measurement categories. We performed similar assessments for a held-out data set consisting of 360 earthquakes, with results comparable to the actual inversion. We highlight the new model for a variety of plumes and subduction zones.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Hypothesis tests on Rayleigh wave radiation pattern shapes: a theoretical assessment of idealized source screening

SUMMARY Shallow seismic sources excite Rayleigh wave ground motion with azimuthally dependent radiation patterns. We place binary hypothesis tests on theoretical models of such radiation patterns to screen cylindrically symmetric sources (like explosions) from non-symmetric sources (like non-vertical dip-slip or non-VDS faults). These models for data include sources with several unknown parameters, contaminated by Gaussian noise and embedded in a layered half-space. The generalized maximum likelihood ratio tests that we derive from these data models produce screening statistics and decision rules that depend on measured, noisy ground motion at discrete sensor locations. We explicitly quantify how the screening power of these statistics increase with the size of any dip-slip and strike-slip components of the source, relative to noise (faulting signal strength) and how they vary with network geometry. As applications of our theory, we apply these tests to (1) find optimal sensor locations that maximize the probability of screening non-circular radiation patterns and (2) invert for the largest non-VDS faulting signal that could be mistakenly attributed to an explosion with damage, at a particular attribution probability. Finally, we quantify how certain errors that are sourced by opening cracks increase screening rate errors. While such theoretical solutions are ideal and require future validation, they remain important in underground explosion monitoring scenarios because they provide fundamental physical limits on the discrimination power of tests that screen explosive from non-VDS faulting sources.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pre-conditioned BFGS-based uncertainty quantification in elastic full-waveform inversion

SUMMARY Full-waveform inversion has become an essential technique for mapping geophysical subsurface structures. However, proper uncertainty quantification is often lacking in current applications. In theory, uncertainty quantification is related to the inverse Hessian (or the posterior covariance matrix). Even for common geophysical inverse problems its calculation is beyond the computational and storage capacities of the largest high-performance computing systems. In this study, we amend the Broyden–Fletcher–Goldfarb–Shanno (BFGS) algorithm to perform uncertainty quantification for large-scale applications. For seismic inverse problems, the limited-memory BFGS (L-BFGS) method prevails as the most efficient quasi-Newton method. We aim to augment it further to obtain an approximate inverse Hessian for uncertainty quantification in FWI. To facilitate retrieval of the inverse Hessian, we combine BFGS (essentially a full-history L-BFGS) with randomized singular value decomposition to determine a low-rank approximation of the inverse Hessian. Setting the rank number equal to the number of iterations makes this solution efficient and memory-affordable even for large-scale problems. Furthermore, based on the Gauss–Newton method, we formulate different initial, diagonal Hessian matrices as pre-conditioners for the inverse scheme and compare their performances in elastic FWI applications. We highlight our approach with the elastic Marmousi benchmark model, demonstrating the applicability of pre-conditioned BFGS for large-scale FWI and uncertainty quantification.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Validation of seismic velocity models in southern California with full-waveform simulations

SUMMARY Crustal seismic velocity models provide essential information for many applications including earthquake source properties, simulations of ground motion and related derivative products. We present a systematic workflow for assessing the accuracy of velocity models with full-waveform simulations. The framework is applied to four regional seismic velocity models for southern California: CVM-H15.11, CVM-S4.26, CVM-S4.26.M01 that includes a shallow geotechnical layer, and the model of Berg et al. For each model, we perform 3-D viscoelastic wave propagation simulations for 48 virtual seismic noise sources (down to 2 s) and 44 moderate-magnitude earthquakes (down to 2 s generally and 0.5 s for some cases) assuming a minimum shear wave velocity of 200 m s–1. The synthetic waveforms are compared with observations associated with both earthquake records and noise cross-correlation data sets. We measure, at multiple period bands for well-isolated seismic phases, traveltime delays and normalized zero-lag cross-correlation coefficients between the synthetic and observed data. The obtained measurements are summarized using the mean absolute derivation of time delay and the mean correlation coefficient. These two metrics provide reliable statistical representations of model quality with consistent results in all data sets. In addition to assessing the overall (average) performance of different models in the entire study area, we examine spatial variations of the models’ quality. All examined models show good phase and waveform agreements for surface waves at periods longer than 5 s, and discrepancies at shorter periods reflecting small-scale heterogeneities and near-surface structures. The model performing best overall is CVM-S4.26.M01. The largest misfits for both body and surface waves are in basin structures and around large fault zones. Inaccuracies generated in these areas may affect tomography and model simulation results at other regions. The seismic velocity models for southern California can be improved by adding better resolved structural representations of the shallow crust and volumes around the main faults.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Limited Dynamic Triggering in the Utah Region, USA

The state of Utah, USA, experiences around 3800 catalogued earthquakes per year, highlighting that the region is seismically active and susceptible to earthquakes. Following the 2002 Denali Fault (M7.9) earthquake in Alaska, the region showed an elevated seismicity rate for 3 weeks following the passage of high amplitude surface waves, suggesting that the region may be particularly susceptible to dynamic triggering. With over 23,396 faults and each fault presenting a potential fault for triggering, we systematically search for dynamic triggering throughout the state of Utah caused by large, global earthquakes with M ≥ 7. Specifically, we analyse earthquake catalogues and all available waveform data to determine statistical increases of seismicity rate following the passage of seismic arrivals. While we find instances of dynamic triggering, our results show that these events occur sparsely in the region. In total, less than 20 per cent of the 273 main shocks that occur from 2000 to the end of 2017 show a statistical indication of dynamic triggering throughout the Utah region, highlighting that dynamic triggering is limited for stresses created by transient signals from global M ≥ 7 earthquakes, with the exception being the Denali Fault (M7.9), Alaska earthquake (i.e. an instance of significant triggering).

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Evaluating the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network in Utah, US, using both ray tracing-derived and empirical-derived celerity-range and backazimuth models

SUMMARY More realistic models for infrasound signal propagation across a region can be used to improve the precision and accuracy of spatial and temporal source localization estimates. Motivated by incomplete infrasound event bulletins in the Western US, the location capabilities of a regional infrasonic network of stations located between 84–458 km from the Utah Test and Training Range, Utah, USA, is assessed using a series of near-surface explosive events with complementary ground truth (GT) information. Signal arrival times and backazimuth estimates are determined with an automatic F-statistic based signal detector and manually refined by an analyst. This study represents the first application of three distinct celerity-range and backazimuth models to an extensive suite of realistic signal detections for event location purposes. A singular celerity and backazimuth deviation model was previously constructed using ray tracing analysis based on an extensive archive of historical atmospheric specifications and is applied within this study to test location capabilities. Similarly, a set of multivariate, season and location specific models for celerity and backazimuth are compared to an empirical model that depends on the observations across the infrasound network and the GT events, which accounts for atmospheric propagation variations from source to receiver. Discrepancies between observed and predicted signal celerities result in locations with poor accuracy. Application of the empirical model improves both spatial localization precision and accuracy; all but one location estimates retain the true GT location within the 90 per cent confidence bounds. Average mislocation of the events is 15.49 km and average 90 per cent error ellipse areas are 4141 km2. The empirical model additionally reduces origin time residuals; origin time residuals from the other location models are in excess of 160 s while residuals produced with the empirical model are within 30 s of the true origin time. We demonstrate that event location accuracy is driven by a combination of signal propagation model and the azimuthal gap of detecting stations. A direct relationship between mislocation, error ellipse area and increased station azimuthal gaps indicate that for sparse networks, detection backazimuths may drive location biases over traveltime estimates.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Global centroid moment tensor solutions in a heterogeneous earth: the CMT3D catalogue

SUMMARY For over 40 yr, the global centroid-moment tensor (GCMT) project has determined location and source parameters for globally recorded earthquakes larger than magnitude 5.0. The GCMT database remains a trusted staple for the geophysical community. Its point-source moment-tensor solutions are the result of inversions that model long-period observed seismic waveforms via normal-mode summation for a 1-D reference earth model, augmented by path corrections to capture 3-D variations in surface wave phase speeds, and to account for crustal structure. While this methodology remains essentially unchanged for the ongoing GCMT catalogue, source inversions based on waveform modelling in low-resolution 3-D earth models have revealed small but persistent biases in the standard modelling approach. Keeping pace with the increased capacity and demands of global tomography requires a revised catalogue of centroid-moment tensors (CMT), automatically and reproducibly computed using Green's functions from a state-of-the-art 3-D earth model. In this paper, we modify the current procedure for the full-waveform inversion of seismic traces for the six moment-tensor parameters, centroid latitude, longitude, depth and centroid time of global earthquakes. We take the GCMT solutions as a point of departure but update them to account for the effects of a heterogeneous earth, using the global 3-D wave speed model GLAD-M25. We generate synthetic seismograms from Green's functions computed by the spectral-element method in the 3-D model, select observed seismic data and remove their instrument response, process synthetic and observed data, select segments of observed and synthetic data based on similarity, and invert for new model parameters of the earthquake’s centroid location, time and moment tensor. The events in our new, preliminary database containing 9382 global event solutions, called CMT3D for ‘3-D centroid-moment tensors’, are on average 4 km shallower, about 1 s earlier, about 5 per cent larger in scalar moment, and more double-couple in nature than in the GCMT catalogue. We discuss in detail the geographical and statistical distributions of the updated solutions, and place them in the context of earlier work. We plan to disseminate our CMT3D solutions via the online ShakeMovie platform.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

On the measurement of S diff splitting caused by lowermost mantle anisotropy

Seismic anisotropy has been detected at many depths of the Earth, including its upper layers, the lowermost mantle and the inner core. While upper mantle seismic anisotropy is relatively straightforward to resolve, lowermost mantle anisotropy has proven to be more complicated to measure. Due to their long, horizontal ray paths along the core–mantle boundary (CMB), S waves diffracted along the CMB (S diff ) are potentially strongly influenced by lowermost mantle anisotropy. S diff waves can be recorded over a large epicentral distance range and thus sample the lowermost mantle everywhere around the globe. S diff therefore represents a promising phase for studying lowermost mantle anisotropy; however, previous studies have pointed out some difficulties with the interpretation of differential SH diff –SV diff traveltimes in terms of seismic anisotropy. Here, we provide a new, comprehensive assessment of the usability of S diff waves to infer lowermost mantle anisotropy. Using both axisymmetric and fully 3-D global wavefield simulations, we show that there are cases in which S diff can reliably detect and characterize deep mantle anisotropy when measuring traditional splitting parameters (as opposed to differential traveltimes). First, we analyze isotropic effects on S diff polarizations, including the influence of realistic velocity structure (such as 3-D velocity heterogeneity and ultra-low velocity zones), the character of the lowermost mantle velocity gradient, mantle attenuation structure, and Earth’s Coriolis force. Secondly, we evaluate effects of seismic anisotropy in both the upper and the lowermost mantle on SH diff waves. In particular, we investigate how SH diff waves are split by seismic anisotropy in the upper mantle near the source and how this anisotropic signature propagates to the receiver for a variety of lowermost mantle models. We demonstrate that, in particular and predictable cases, anisotropy leads to S diff splitting that can be clearly distinguished from other waveform effects. Here, these results enable us to lay out a strategy for the analysis of S diff splitting due to anisotropy at the base of the mantle, which includes steps to help avoid potential pitfalls, with attention paid to the initial polarization of S diff and the influence of source-side anisotropy. We demonstrate our S diff splitting method using three earthquakes that occurred beneath the Celebes Sea, measured at many transportable array stations at a suitable epicentral distance. We resolve consistent and well-constrained S diff splitting parameters due to lowermost mantle anisotropy beneath the northeastern Pacific Ocean.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

En echelon faults reactivated by wastewater disposal near Musreau Lake, Alberta

We use machine-learning and cross-correlation techniques to enhance earthquake detectability by two magnitude units for the earthquake sequence near Musreau Lake, Alberta, which is induced by wastewater disposal. This deep catalogue reveals a series of en echelon ~N–S oriented strike-slip faults that are favourably oriented for reactivation. These faults require only ~0.6 MPa overpressure for triggering to occur. Earthquake activity occurs in bursts, or episodes; episodes restricted to the largest fault tend to have earthquakes starting near the southern end (distant from injectors) and progressing northwards (towards the injectors). While most events are concentrated along these ~N–S oriented faults, we also delineate smaller faults. Together, these findings suggest pore pressure as the triggering mechanism, where a time-dependent increase in pore pressure likely caused these faults to progressively reawaken. Analysis of the ‘next record-breaking event’, a statistical model that forecasts the sequencing of earthquake magnitudes, suggests that the next largest event would be M L ~4.3. The seismically illuminated length of the largest fault indicates potential magnitudes as large as M w 5.3.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗