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Pervasive ice sheet mass loss reflects competing ocean and atmosphere processes

Quantifying changes in Earth’s ice sheets and identifying the climate drivers are central to improving sea level projections. We provide unified estimates of grounded and floating ice mass change from 2003 to 2019 using NASA’s Ice, Cloud and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat) and ICESat-2 satellite laser altimetry. Our data reveal patterns likely linked to competing climate processes: Ice loss from coastal Greenland (increased surface melt), Antarctic ice shelves (increased ocean melting), and Greenland and Antarctic outlet glaciers (dynamic response to ocean melting) was partially compensated by mass gains over ice sheet interiors (increased snow accumulation). Losses outpaced gains, with grounded-ice loss from Greenland (200 billion tonnes per year) and Antarctica (118 billion tonnes per year) contributing 14 millimeters to sea level. Mass lost from West Antarctica’s ice shelves accounted for more than 30% of that region’s total.

Ben Smith↗

Large Primtive Asteroids: Thermal and Dynamical Context

Primitiveasteroids, most of which are located in the outer belt and Jupiter’s Trojan clouds, provide information related to the origin and evolution of the solar system and the conditions in which the solar nebula was formed. These asteroids are widely thought to be the origin of the least-altered car-bonaceous chondrite that allow us to put crucial con-straints on the current dynamical and thermal theories of the formation and evolution of the early solar sys-tem. The nature of surface composition of large and low-albedo asteroids, like (1) Ceres, (10) Hygiea and (52) Europa, is still under intense debate and different interpretations have beenput forth to explain the ab-sorption features in these objects (e.g.,[1, 2, 3,4,5,6]). Laboratory and spectroscopic experiments on me-teorites that represent all nine carbonaceous chondrite types also found no spectral matches for these large asteroids (e.g.,[7]). Previous studies of asteroid Ceres (the largest primitive asteroid in the solar system) have been conducted to constrain and estimate its surface composition (e.g., [2, 5]). Using linear mixing,[2]found hydroxide brucite, serpentines, and carbonates, to be consistent with Ceres’ ground-based spectra.[5]estimated the surface composition of Ceres and found evidence of widespread NH3-phyllosilicates across its surface using best-fit solutions to Dawn’s NIR spectra. The presence of NH3-phyllosilicates implies that mate-rial from the outer solar system was incorporated into large primitive asteroids, either during their formation at great heliocentric distance or by incorporation of material transported into the Main Belt region. Here we presentnew largeand primitive asteroidsthat share the same spectral similaritieswith the largest asteroid in the solar system, Ceres.We also present the context of these new observations in terms oftheirthermal and dynamicalevolution.Large Primitive Asteroids: Dynamical and Thermal Context:Orbital Distribution of LargePrimitiveAsteroids: Constraining the mineralogy and surface composition of large primitive asteroids will place crucial con-straints on existing dynamical and thermal theories of the formation of the early solar system. We identified several additional asteroids in the Europa-like group in addition to asteroids Europa, Euphrosyne, and Patien-tia, that wereidentified in [8]using NASA IRTFtele-scope (e.g.,Figure 1). These new asteroids along with the already-observed Ceres-and Europa-like group members are localized in the 2.8 < a < 3.4 AU region and characterized by larger sizes, showing an interest-ing orbital distribution (Figure 2). Ceres-likeand Eu-ropa-like groups, which include the largest asteroids in the solar system, show an interesting orbital distribu-tion. These groups are located in the 2.6 < a < 3.6 AU region that contains the snow-line. The snow-line’s location may have been driftedinwards due to the disk’s cooling and evolution[9,10]. Recent dynamical models[11,12]suggested that a substantial fraction of primitive asteroids originated between or beyond the giant planets (a > 5 AU), where water ice would have been stable, and then implanted in the outer Main Belt region because of the giant planets’ growth.Figure 1. Two asteroids, 94 Aurora and 423 Diotima, showing spectra similar to asteroids (1)Ceres and (52)Europa.Thermal modeling and evolution of primitive aster-oids:Primitive water-rich asteroids are thought to be originally composed of mixtures of anhydrous materi-als and water ice that waslater melted by heating sources such as the decay of 26Al, reacting with anhy-drous materials to form H2O/OH-rich minerals. Calcu-lations of the evolution of the temperature and struc-ture of icy planetesimals were performedusing a 1D finite differences thermal evolution model[13, 14] for 26Al-heated planetesimals. In particular, thermally activated compaction due to hot pressing of bodies with an initially unconsolidated porous structure is included. An ice-rich initial composition that leads to a material dominated by phyllosilicates upon aqueous alteration (with 25 vol% H2O and a rock fraction that contains 85 vol% phyllosilicates and 15 vol% olivine upon aque-ous alteration, similar to CIand CM chondrites) was assumed. Atypical initial porosity of 40%[15] is re-duced following the change of the strain rate that is calculated as Voigt approximation from the strain rates of components[16]. Material properties (thermal con-ductivity, density, heat capacity, etc.) correspond to the composition assumed and are adjusted with tempera-ture and porosity. Melting of the water ice as well as water-rock separation are included[14]. Both short-and long-lived radionuclides are consideredas heat sources. Figure 3 shows the maximum temperature calculated as a function of radius and accretion time. A variety of internal structures is obtained, ranging from primordial (no melting of water ice) over partially melted or partially differentiated (melting of water ice, hydration, formation of a rocky core and water ocean below an undifferentiated layer) to completely differ-entiated ones (rocky core, water mantle, Enceladus-like case). The heating and differentiation of planetesi-mals is determined by the availability of 26Al, i.e., by the accretion time t0 relative to the formation of the calcium-aluminum-rich inclusions (CAIs), such that maximum temperatures and structures vary stronglyfor t0< 6 Myr rel. to CAIs. However, for a later accre-tion only the size of the body determines its maximum tempera-ture and structure due to the nearly constant heating by long-lived radionuclides. Average densities of Ceres-and Europa-like group membersimply high-ly porous interiors and, consequently, relatively late accretion at t0> 3 Myr rel. to CAIs with a maximum temperature of < 600 K (Figure3)

D Takir↗

A vertically integrated snow/ice model over land/sea for climate models. I - Development. II - Impact on orbital change experiments

A vertically integrated formulation (VIF) model for sea ice/snow and land snow is discussed which can simulate the nonlinear effects of heat storage and transfer through the layers of snow and ice. The VIF demonstates the accuracy of the multilayer formulation, while benefitting from the computational flexibility of linear formulations. In the second part, the model is implemented in a seasonal dynamic zonally averaged climate model. It is found that, in response to a change between extreme high and low summer insolation orbits, the winter orbital change dominates over the opposite summer change for sea ice. For snow over land the shorter but more pronounced summer orbital change is shown to dominate.

Neeman, Binyamin U.↗

AmeriFlux US-UR2 Cora - UCRB

This is the AmeriFlux version of the carbon flux data for the site US-UR2 Cora - UCRB. Site Description - This site is located in Cora, Wyoming, within a high-altitude grassland pasture. The region experiences cold winters with frequent snow cover and mild summers. The land is primarily used for grazing, influencing the vegetation and ecosystem dynamics.

Neale, C. U. [Daugherty Water for Food Institute/U↗

A large-scale numerical model of sea ice

The described large-scale sea ice model, which is capable of coupling with atmospheric and oceanic models of comparable resolution, simulates the yearly cycle of ice in both the Northern and Southern Hemispheres. Model results for the yearly cycle of sea ice thickness and extent in both the Arctic and the Antarctic are presented. Horizontally the model resolution is approximately 200 km, while vertically four layers - ice, snow, ocean, and atmosphere - are considered. Thermodynamic processes based on energy balances at the various interfaces and dynamic processes based on wind stress, water stress, Coriolis force, internal ice resistance, and the stress from the tilt of the sea surface are incorporated. It is assumed that the ice within a given grid square is of uniform thickness, although each square has a variable percentage of its area ice free.

Parkinson, C. L.↗

Atmospheric model development

Spectral albedo measurements from the LANDSAT-4/5 thematic mappers require that spacecraft upwelling radiances be corrected for atmospheric absorption and scattering and for local surface illumination. A two-stream model is developed, with a lower boundary condition that varies with incidence angle. The TM data must be registered to digital terrain data. Reflectance from points in shadows can be used to estimate optical depth. The primary application is determination of the spectral albedo of snow. The TM is better-suited for this purpose than the MSS because of its larger dynamic range.

Source record↗

Reflectance measurements from Landsat Thematic Mapper over rugged terrain

Spectral albedo measurements from the Landsat-4/5 Thematic Mapper require that spacecraft upwelling radiances be corrected for atmospheric absorption and scattering and for local surface illumination. A two-stream model is developed, with a lower boundary condition that varies with incidence angle. TM data must be registered to digital terrain data. Reflectance from points in shadows can be used to estimate optical depth. The primary application here is determination of the spectral albedo of snow. The TM is better-suited for this purpose than the MSS because of its larger dynamic range.

Dozier, J.↗

Remote sensing science for the Nineties; Proceedings of IGARSS '90 - 10th Annual International Geoscience and Remote Sensing Symposium, University of Maryland, College Park, May 20-24, 1990. Vols. 1, 2, & 3

Various papers on remote sensing (RS) for the nineties are presented. The general topics addressed include: subsurface methods, radar scattering, oceanography, microwave models, atmospheric correction, passive microwave systems, RS in tropical forests, moderate resolution land analysis, SAR geometry and SNR improvement, image analysis, inversion and signal processing for geoscience, surface scattering, rain measurements, sensor calibration, wind measurements, terrestrial ecology, agriculture, geometric registration, subsurface sediment geology, radar modulation mechanisms, radar ocean scattering, SAR calibration, airborne radar systems, water vapor retrieval, forest ecosystem dynamics, land analysis, multisensor data fusion. Also considered are: geologic RS, RS sensor optical measurements, RS of snow, temperature retrieval, vegetation structure, global change, artificial intelligence, SAR processing techniques, geologic RS field experiment, stochastic modeling, topography and Digital Elevation model, SAR ocean waves, spaceborne lidar and optical, sea ice field measurements, millimeter waves, advanced spectroscopy, spatial analysis and data compression, SAR polarimetry techniques. Also discussed are: plant canopy modeling, optical RS techniques, optical and IR oceanography, soil moisture, sea ice back scattering, lightning cloud measurements, spatial textural analysis, SAR systems and techniques, active microwave sensing, lidar and optical, radar scatterometry, RS of estuaries, vegetation modeling, RS systems, EOS/SAR Alaska, applications for developing countries, SAR speckle and texture.

Source record↗

Grand-scale Atmospheric Imaging Apparatus (GAIA) and Wind LiDAR Multi-scale Measurements in the Atmospheric Surface Layer

Understanding the organization and dynamics of turbulence structures in the atmospheric surface layer (ASL) is important for fundamental and applied research in different fields, including weather prediction, snow settling, particle and pollutant transport, and wind energy. The main challenges associated with probing and modeling turbulence in the ASL are: i) the broad range of turbulent scales associated with the different eddies present in high Reynolds-number boundary layers ranging from the viscous scale ($\mathcal{O}$(mm)) up to large energy-containing structures ($\mathcal{O}$(km)); ii) the non-stationarity of the wind conditions and the variability associated with the daily cycle of the atmospheric stability; iii) the interactions among eddies of different sizes populating different layers of the ASL, which contribute to momentum, energy, and scalar turbulent fluxes. Creative and innovative measurement techniques are required to probe near-surface turbulence by generating spatio-temporally-resolved data in the proximity of the ground and, at the same time, covering the entire ASL height with large enough streamwise extent to characterize the dynamics of larger eddies evolving aloft. To this aim, the U.S. National Science Foundation sponsored the development of the Grand-scale Atmospheric Imaging Apparatus (GAIA) enabling super-large snow particle image velocimetry (SLPIV) in the near-surface region of the ASL. This inaugural version of GAIA provides a comprehensive measuring system by coupling SLPIV and two scanning Doppler LiDARs to probe the ASL at an unprecedented resolution. A field campaign performed in 2021–2022 and its preliminary results are presented herein elucidating new research opportunities enabled by the GAIA measuring system.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Editorial: Advances in observations and modeling of snow, forest-snow processes and snow hydrology

Seasonal snowpack plays a pivotal role in the regional water cycle. In Western mountainous regions, where precipitation predominantly occurs as snow during winter and is limited in the summer months when water demand peaks, snowpack serves as a critical water source essential for sustaining water supply, ecosystems, agriculture, and industries. Additionally, snowpack dynamically influences extreme events, such as floods, droughts, and wildfires, through intricate land-atmosphere feedback. Nevertheless, significant knowledge gaps persist within this field due to data limitations and the complexity of the physics involved in modeling snow and snow hydrology (i.e., snow acts as a critical upstream hydrological process). Here, this research topic presents a collection of manuscripts that address some of these important research gaps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Geoscience Laser Altimeter System: Characteristics and Performance of the Altimeter Receiver

The Geoscience Laser Altimeter System (GLAS) on board ICESat spacecraft measures the surface height (altimetry) via the time of flight of its 1064 nm laser pulse. The GLAS laser transmitter produces 6 ns wide pulses with 70 mJ energy at 1064 nm at a 40 Hz rate. The altimeter receiver consists of a telescope, aft optics, a silicon avalanche photodiode, and electronic amplifiers. The transmitted and echo pulse waveforms are digitized at 1 GHz rate. The laser pulse time of flight is determined on the ground from the two digitized pulse waveforms and their positions in the full waveform record (about 5.4 ms ong) by computing the pulse centroids or by curve fitting. The GLAS receiver algorithms in on board software selects the two waveform segments containing the transmitted and the echo pulses and sends them to ground. The probability of echo pulse detection and the accuracy of time of flight measurement depend on the received signal level, the background light within the receiver field of view, the inherent detector and amplifier noise, the quantization of the digitizer, and some times by cloud obscurations. A receiver model has been developed to calculate the probability of detection and accuracy of the altimeter measurements with these noise sources. From prelaunch testing, the minimum detectable echo pulse energy for 90% detection probability was about 0.1 fj/pulse onto the detector. Such a receiver sensitivity allows GLAS to measure the surface height through clouds with optical density less than 2. The echo pulse energy required to achieve 10 cm ranging accuracy was found to be about 3 times higher than the minimum detectable signal level. The smallest single shot range measurement error, which was determined by ranging to a fixed target with strong echo pulses and no background light, was 2 to 3cm. The maximum linear response echo pulse energy was 10 fJ/pulse for the strongest echo signals, assuming a Lambertian scattering snow surface, clear sky atmosphere transmission, and no pulse width spreading due to surface slopes. Results from the initial 38 days of GLAS operation on-orbit with Laser 1, showed the echo pulse energies varied, as expected, over a wide dynamic range due to the variability of atmosphere transmission and Earth surface characteristics. The receiver was able to reliably detect the ground surface echoes and measure time of flight under such dynamic conditions, except when there were dense clouds. When over Antarctica, the echo pulse energies were several times stronger than predicted. This suggests that the 1064 nm backscattering from the snow pack and ice-sheet &ce are not completely Lambertian but is somewhat peaked at opposit.ion. With Laser 1, the peak amplitude of the echo pulses from flat ice sheets under clear sky conditions exceeded the linear response range of the receiver, causing some pulse waveform distortion due to saturation. We have characterized the effects of receiver saturation on the time of flight, pulse width, and pulse energy measurements for flat surface by testing a night spare detector in the lab with simulated echo pulses. A data processing algorithm that minimizes the errors due to saturation for these measurements are described.

Sun, Xiao-Li↗

Spatial patterns of snow distribution in the sub-Arctic

Abstract. The spatial distribution of snow plays a vital role in sub-Arctic and Arctic climate, hydrology, and ecology due to its fundamental influence on the water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation, and carbon flux. However, the spatial distribution of snow is not well understood, and therefore, it is not well modeled, which can lead to substantial uncertainties in snow cover representations. To capture key hydro-ecological controls on snow spatial distribution, we carried out intensive field studies over multiple years for two small (2017–2019; ∼ 2.5 km2) sub-Arctic study sites located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using an intensive suite of field observations (> 22 000 data points), we developed simple models of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) using factors such as topographic characteristics, vegetation characteristics based on greenness (normalized different vegetation index, NDVI), and a simple metric for approximating winds. The most successful model was random forest, using both study sites and all years, which was able to accurately capture the complexity and variability of snow characteristics across the sites. Approximately 86 % of the SWE distribution could be accounted for, on average, by the random forest model at the study sites. Factors that impacted year-to-year snow distribution included NDVI, elevation, and a metric to represent coarse microtopography (topographic position index, TPI), while slope, wind, and fine microtopography factors were less important. The characterization of the SWE spatial distribution patterns will be used to validate and improve snow distribution modeling in the Department of Energy's Earth system model and for improved understanding of hydrology, topography, and vegetation dynamics in the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions of the globe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Grand Challenges of Hydrologic Modeling for Food-Energy-Water Nexus Security in High Mountain Asia

Climate-influenced changes in hydrology affect water-food-energy security that may impact up to two billion people downstream of the High Mountain Asia (HMA) region. Changes in water supply affect energy, industry, transportation, and ecosystems (agriculture, fisheries) and as a result, also affect the region's social, environmental, and economic fabrics. Sustaining the highly interconnected food-energy-water nexus (FEWN) will be a fundamental and increasing challenge under a changing climate regime. High variability in topography and distribution of glaciated and snow-covered areas in the HMA region, and scarcity of high resolution (in-situ) data make it difficult to model and project climate change impacts on individual watersheds. We lack basic understanding of the spatial and temporal variations in climate, surface impurities in snow and ice such as black carbon and dust that alter surface albedo, and glacier mass balance and dynamics. These knowledge gaps create challenges in predicting where and when the impact of changes in river flow will be the most significant economically and ecologically. In response to these challenges, the United States National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) established the High Mountain Asia Team (HiMAT) in 2016 to conduct research to address knowledge gaps. This paper summarizes some of the advances HiMAT made over the past 5 years, highlights the scientific challenges in improving our understanding of the hydrology of the HMA region, and introduces an integrated assessment framework to assess the impacts of climate changes on the FEWN for the HMA region. The framework, developed under a NASA HMA project, links climate models, hydrology, hydropower, fish biology, and economic analysis. The framework could be applied to develop scientific understanding of spatio-temporal variability in water availability and the resultant downstream impacts on the FEWN to support water resource management under a changing climate regime.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Modeling the Distribution and Type of High-Latitude Natural Wetlands for Methane Studies

High latitude (>50N) natural wetlands emit a substantial amount of methane to the atmosphere, and are located in a region of amplified warming. Northern hemisphere high latitudes are characterized by cold climates, extensive permafrost, poor drainage, short growing seasons, and slow decay rates. Under these conditions, organic carbon accumulates in the soil, sequestering CO2 from the atmosphere. Methanogens produce methane from this carbon reservoir, converting stored carbon into a powerful greenhouse gas. Methane emission from wetland ecosystems depends on vegetation type, climate characteristics (e.g, precipitation amount and seasonality, temperature, snow cover, etc.), and geophysical variables (e.g., permafrost, soil type, and landscape slope). To understand how wetland methane dynamics in this critical region will respond to climate change, we have to first understand how wetlands themselves will change and therefore, what the primary controllers of wetland distribution and type are. Understanding these relationships permits data-anchored, physically-based modeling of wetland distribution and type in other climate scenarios, such as paleoclimates or future climates, a necessary first step toward modeling wetland methane emissions in these scenarios. We investigate techniques and datasets for predicting the distribution and type of high latitude (>50N) natural wetlands from a suite of geophysical and climate predictors. Hierarchical clustering is used to derive an empirical methane-centric wetland model. The model is applied in a multistep process first to predict the distribution of wetlands from relevant geophysical parameters, and then, given the predicted wetland distribution, to classify the wetlands into methane-relevant types using an expanded suite of climate and biogeophysical variables. As the optimum set of predictor variables is not known a priori, the model is applied iteratively, and each simulation is evaluated with respect to observed high-latitude wetlands.

Romanski, Joy↗

How Could Future Climate Conditions Reshape a Devastating Lake‐Effect Snow Storm?

Abstract Lake‐effect snow (LES) storms, characterized by heavy convective precipitation downwind of large lakes, pose significant coastal hazards with severe socioeconomic consequences in vulnerable areas. In this study, we investigate how devastating LES storms could evolve in the future by employing a storyline approach, using the LES storm that occurred over Buffalo, New York, in November 2022 as an example. Using a Pseudo‐Global Warming method with a fully three‐dimensional two‐way coupled lake‐land‐atmosphere modeling system at a cloud‐resolving 4 km resolution, we show a 14% increase in storm precipitation under the end‐century warming. This increase in precipitation is accompanied by a transition in the precipitation form from predominantly snowfall to nearly equal parts snowfall and rainfall. Through additional simulations with isolated atmospheric and lake warming, we discerned that the warmer lake contributes to increased storm precipitation through enhanced evaporation while the warmer atmosphere contributes to the increase in the storm's rainfall, at the expense of snowfall. More importantly, this shift from snowfall to rainfall was found to nearly double the area experiencing another winter hazard, Rain‐on‐Snow. Our study provides a plausible future storyline for the Buffalo LES storm, focusing on understanding the intricate interplay between atmospheric and lake warming in shaping the future dynamics of LES storms. It emphasizes the importance of accurately capturing the changing lake‐atmosphere dynamics during LES storms under future warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Active and Passive 3D Vector Radiative Transfer with Preferentially-Aligned Ice Particles

For the purposes of interpreting active (radar) and passive (radiometer) microwave and millimeter wave remote sensing data, we have constructed a consistent radiative transfer modeling framework to simulate the responses for arbitrary sensors with differing sensing geometries and hardware configurations. As part of this work, we have implemented a recent method for calculating the electromagnetic properties of individual ice crystals and snow flakes. These calculations will allow us to exploit polarized remote sensing observations to discriminate different particles types and elucidate dynamics of cloud and precipitating systems.

Adams, Ian S.↗

Enhanced Surface Warming and Accelerated Snow Melt in the Himalayas and Tibetan Plateau Induced by Absorbing Aerosols

Numerical experiments with the NASA finite-volume general circulation model show that heating of the atmosphere by dust and black carbon can lead to widespread enhanced warming over the Tibetan Plateau (TP) and accelerated snow melt in the western TP and Himalayas. During the boreal spring, a thick aerosol layer, composed mainly of dust transported from adjacent deserts and black carbon from local emissions, builds up over the Indo-Gangetic Plain, against the foothills of the Himalaya and the TP. The aerosol layer, which extends from the surface to high elevation (approx.5 km), heats the mid-troposphere by absorbing solar radiation. The heating produces an atmospheric dynamical feedback the so-called elevated-heat-pump (EHP) effect, which increases moisture, cloudiness, and deep convection over northern India, as well as enhancing the rate of snow melt in the Himalayas and TP. The accelerated melting of snow is mostly confined to the western TP, first slowly in early April and then rapidly from early to mid-May. The snow cover remains reduced from mid-May through early June. The accelerated snow melt is accompanied by similar phases of enhanced warming of the atmosphere-land system of the TP, with the atmospheric warming leading the surface warming by several days. Surface energy balance analysis shows that the short-wave and long-wave surface radiative fluxes strongly offset each other, and are largely regulated by the changes in cloudiness and moisture over the TP. The slow melting phase in April is initiated by an effective transfer of sensible heat from a warmer atmosphere to land. The rapid melting phase in May is due to an evaporation-snow-land feedback coupled to an increase in atmospheric moisture over the TP induced by the EHP effect.

Lau, William K.↗