SMC-IT cost risk tutorial part 1 : excercise A : sizing the system
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software estimations↗
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Statistical and Probabilistic Extensions to Ground Operations' Discrete Event Simulation Modeling
NASA's human exploration initiatives will invest in technologies, public/private partnerships, and infrastructure, paving the way for the expansion of human civilization into the solar system and beyond. As it is has been for the past half century, the Kennedy Space Center will be the embarkation point for humankind's journey into the cosmos. Functioning as a next generation space launch complex, Kennedy's launch pads, integration facilities, processing areas, launch and recovery ranges will bustle with the activities of the world's space transportation providers. In developing this complex, KSC teams work through the potential operational scenarios: conducting trade studies, planning and budgeting for expensive and limited resources, and simulating alternative operational schemes. Numerous tools, among them discrete event simulation (DES), were matured during the Constellation Program to conduct such analyses with the purpose of optimizing the launch complex for maximum efficiency, safety, and flexibility while minimizing life cycle costs. Discrete event simulation is a computer-based modeling technique for complex and dynamic systems where the state of the system changes at discrete points in time and whose inputs may include random variables. DES is used to assess timelines and throughput, and to support operability studies and contingency analyses. It is applicable to any space launch campaign and informs decision-makers of the effects of varying numbers of expensive resources and the impact of off nominal scenarios on measures of performance. In order to develop representative DES models, methods were adopted, exploited, or created to extend traditional uses of DES. The Delphi method was adopted and utilized for task duration estimation. DES software was exploited for probabilistic event variation. A roll-up process was used, which was developed to reuse models and model elements in other less - detailed models. The DES team continues to innovate and expand DES capabilities to address KSC's planning needs.
Trocine, Linda↗
NASA Tech Briefs, January 2003
Topics covered include: Optoelectronic Tool Adds Scale Marks to Photographic Images; Compact Interconnection Networks Based on Quantum Dots; Laterally Coupled Quantum-Dot Distributed-Feedback Lasers; Bit-Serial Adder Based on Quantum Dots; Stabilized Fiber-Optic Distribution of Reference Frequency; Delay/Doppler-Mapping GPS-Reflection Remote-Sensing System; Ladar System Identifies Obstacles Partly Hidden by Grass; Survivable Failure Data Recorders for Spacecraft; Fiber-Optic Ammonia Sensors; Silicon Membrane Mirrors with Electrostatic Shape Actuators; Nanoscale Hot-Wire Probes for Boundary-Layer Flows; Theodolite with CCD Camera for Safe Measurement of Laser-Beam Pointing; Efficient Coupling of Lasers to Telescopes with Obscuration; Aligning Three Off-Axis Mirrors with Help of a DOE; Calibrating Laser Gas Measurements by Use of Natural CO2; Laser Ranging Simulation Program; Micro-Ball-Lens Optical Switch Driven by SMA Actuator; Evaluation of Charge Storage and Decay in Spacecraft Insulators; Alkaline Capacitors Based on Nitride Nanoparticles; Low-EC-Content Electrolytes for Low-Temperature Li-Ion Cells; Software for a GPS-Reflection Remote-Sensing System; Software for Building Models of 3D Objects via the Internet; "Virtual Cockpit Window" for a Windowless Aerospacecraft; CLARAty Functional-Layer Software; Java Library for Input and Output of Image Data and Metadata; Software for Estimating Costs of Testing Rocket Engines; Energy-Absorbing, Lightweight Wheels; Viscoelastic Vibration Dampers for Turbomachine Blades; Soft Landing of Spacecraft on Energy-Absorbing Self-Deployable Cushions; Pneumatically Actuated Miniature Peristaltic Vacuum Pumps; Miniature Gas-Turbine Power Generator; Pressure-Sensor Assembly Technique; Wafer-Level Membrane-Transfer Process for Fabricating MEMS; A Reactive-Ion Etch for Patterning Piezoelectric Thin Film; Wavelet-Based Real-Time Diagnosis of Complex Systems; Quantum Search in Hilbert Space; Analytic Method for Computing Instrument Pointing Jitter; and Semiselective Optoelectronic Sensors for Monitoring Microbes.
Source record↗
Method and system for diagnostics of apparatus
Proposed is a method, implemented in software, for estimating fault state of an apparatus outfitted with sensors. At each execution period the method processes sensor data from the apparatus to obtain a set of parity parameters, which are further used for estimating fault state. The estimation method formulates a convex optimization problem for each fault hypothesis and employs a convex solver to compute fault parameter estimates and fault likelihoods for each fault hypothesis. The highest likelihoods and corresponding parameter estimates are transmitted to a display device or an automated decision and control system. The obtained accurate estimate of fault state can be used to improve safety, performance, or maintenance processes for the apparatus.
Gorinevsky, Dimitry↗
Modeling SEER-SEM Using a Decision Graph : A Knowledge Engineering Approach
No abstract available
software estimates↗
Control Software for Piezo Stepping Actuators
A control system has been developed for the Space Interferometer Mission (SIM) piezo stepping actuator. Piezo stepping actuators are novel because they offer extreme dynamic range (centimeter stroke with nanometer resolution) with power, thermal, mass, and volume advantages over existing motorized actuation technology. These advantages come with the added benefit of greatly reduced complexity in the support electronics. The piezo stepping actuator consists of three fully redundant sets of piezoelectric transducers (PZTs), two sets of brake PZTs, and one set of extension PZTs. These PZTs are used to grasp and move a runner attached to the optic to be moved. By proper cycling of the two brake and extension PZTs, both forward and backward moves of the runner can be achieved. Each brake can be configured for either a power-on or power-off state. For SIM, the brakes and gate of the mechanism are configured in such a manner that, at the end of the step, the actuator is in a parked or power-off state. The control software uses asynchronous sampling of an optical encoder to monitor the position of the runner. These samples are timed to coincide with the end of the previous move, which may consist of a variable number of steps. This sampling technique linearizes the device by avoiding input saturation of the actuator and makes latencies of the plant vanish. The software also estimates, in real time, the scale factor of the device and a disturbance caused by cycling of the brakes. These estimates are used to actively cancel the brake disturbance. The control system also includes feedback and feedforward elements that regulate the position of the runner to a given reference position. Convergence time for smalland medium-sized reference positions (less than 200 microns) to within 10 nanometers can be achieved in under 10 seconds. Convergence times for large moves (greater than 1 millimeter) are limited by the step rate.
Shields, Joel F.↗
Mission Summary of Cassini Spacecraft Guidance and Control Hardware Health and Performance
The Cassini-Huygens mission ended on September 15, 2017, after nearly two decades in ight. The well-designed Cassini spacecraft had robust hardware that permitted two extended missions, lasting nine years longer than the expected prime mission. At the end of the mission, the Attitude and Articulation Control Subsystem (AACS) was using two pieces of redundant back-up of hardware, one reaction wheel and the hydrazine thruster branch, due to hardware anomalies earlier in the mission. The back-up hardware performed nominally through the rest of mission. The prime reaction wheels at the end of the mission had reached more than 130% of the consumable limit for number of revolutions. No thruster on either thruster branch accumulated more than 45% of the consumable limits. The inertial reference unit slightly exceeded the pre-launch requirements on bias error, but as the software continuously estimated this value in ight, the attitude estimation was not adversely a ected. The star trackers performed nominally, and though there was a spacecraft anomaly in 1998 related to the star trackers, the origin was not in hardware itself. The Sun sensors and accelerometer both performed as expected and met all requirements throughout the mission. Ultimately, the lifetime of the Cassini spacecraft was not limited by hardware performance. Planetary protection requirements necessitated the end of the mission as the spacecraft's propellant reserves depleted, and Cassini plunged into Saturn's atmosphere with a healthy attitude control system.
Stupik, Joan↗
Fault Management Algorithm Risk Assessment for the NASA Space Launch System
This paper presents the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) risk assessment process currently being conducted for the Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis II Fault Management (FM) detection functions. The analysis scope, general assumptions and guide rules, and key modeling concepts were discussed to establish the basis of the risk assessments conducted. Initial analyses indicated a dominance in the total risk by software and firmware failures. This paper presents efforts applied to refine the software risks and the overall impact of implementing those modifications. Current analyses conducted on the detection functions implemented for the SLS Artemis II mission indicate primary risk drivers for the individual FM detection functions are flight software failures, firmware design failures, and hardware Common Cause Failures (CCFs). There still remains issues of how to account for time and redundancy in the software risk estimations.
probability risk analysis↗
Fault Management Algorithm Risk Assessment for the NASA Space Launch System
This presentation describes the false positive (FP) and false negative (FN) risk assessment process currently being conducted for the Space Launch System (SLS) Artemis II Fault Management (FM) detection functions. The analysis scope, general assumptions and guide rules, and key modeling concepts were discussed to establish the basis of the risk assessments conducted. Initial analyses indicated a dominance in the total risk by software and firmware failures. This paper presents efforts applied to refine the software risks and the overall impact of implementing those modifications. Current analyses conducted on the detection functions implemented for the SLS Artemis II mission indicate primary risk drivers for the individual FM detection functions are flight software failures, firmware design failures, and hardware Common Cause Failures (CCFs). There still remains issues of how to account for time and redundancy in the software risk estimations.
probability risk analysis↗
Estimation and enhancement of real-time software reliability through mutation analysis
A simulation-based technique for obtaining numerical estimates of the reliability of N-version, real-time software is presented. An extended stochastic Petri net is employed to represent the synchronization structure of N versions of the software, where dependencies among versions are modeled through correlated sampling of module execution times. Test results utilizing specifications for NASA's planetary lander control software indicate that mutation-based testing could hold greater potential for enhancing reliability than the desirable but perhaps unachievable goal of independence among N versions.
Geist, Robert↗
Estimating Rates of Fault Insertion and Test Effectiveness in Software Systems
In developing a software system, we would like to estimate the total number of faults inserted into a software system, the residual fault content of that system at any given time, and the efficacy of the testing activity in executing the code containing the newly inserted faults.
fault insertion software systems test effectivenes↗
Observing Tsunamis in the Ionosphere Using Ground Based GPS Measurements
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following recent seismic events, including the Tohoku tsunami of March 11, 2011. We observe fluctuations correlated in time, space, and wave properties with this tsunami in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the Tohoku tsunami near the epicenter, at Hawaii, and near the west coast of North America. Disturbance magnitudes are 1-10% of the background TEC value. Observations near the epicenter are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement. The potential exists to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for future early warning systems.
total electron content (TEC)↗
Observing Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances Caused by Tsunamis Using GPS TEC Measurements
Ground-based Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements of ionospheric Total Electron Content (TEC) show variations consistent with atmospheric internal gravity waves caused by ocean tsunamis following two recent seismic events: the American Samoa earthquake of September 29, 2009, and the Chile earthquake of February 27, 2010. Fluctuations in TEC correlated in time, space, and wave properties with these tsunamis were observed in TEC estimates processed using JPL's Global Ionospheric Mapping Software. These TEC estimates were band-pass filtered to remove ionospheric TEC variations with wavelengths and periods outside the typical range of internal gravity waves caused by tsunamis. Observable variations in TEC appear correlated with the tsunamis in certain locations, but not in others. Where variations are observed, the typical amplitude tends to be on the order of 1% of the background TEC value. Variations with amplitudes ~ 0.1 - 0.2 TECU are observable with periods and timing affiliated with the tsunami. These observations are compared to estimates of expected tsunami-driven TEC variations produced by Embry Riddle Aeronautical University's Spectral Full Wave Model, an atmosphere-ionosphere coupling model, and found to be in good agreement in some locations, though there are cases when the model predicts an observable tsunami-driven signature and none is observed. These TEC variations are not always seen when a tsunami is present, but in these two events the regions where a strong ocean tsunami was observed did coincide with clear TEC observations, while a lack of clear TEC observations coincided with smaller tsunami amplitudes. There exists the potential to apply these detection techniques to real-time GPS TEC data, providing estimates of tsunami speed and amplitude that may be useful for early warning systems.
Galvan, David A.↗
Pivotal-Function Assessment Of Reliability Of Software
Approach developed to establish utility of pivotal functions for estimation and prediction of reliability of software. Improved estimates of reliability with statistical confidence obtained when relatively few testing data available. Pivotal functions effective tools for determination of confidence limits for reliability of software and prediction limits for time to next failure. Provides exact confidence and prediction limits regardless of how many bugs found in software.
Hayhurst, Kelly J.↗
Calibration of a COTS Integration Cost Model Using Local Project Data
The software measures and estimation techniques appropriate to a Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) integration project differ from those commonly used for custom software development. Labor and schedule estimation tools that model COTS integration are available. Like all estimation tools, they must be calibrated with the organization's local project data. This paper describes the calibration of a commercial model using data collected by the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) of the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center (GSFC). The model calibrated is SLIM Release 4.0 from Quantitative Software Management (QSM). By adopting the SLIM reuse model and by treating configuration parameters as lines of code, we were able to establish a consistent calibration for COTS integration projects. The paper summarizes the metrics, the calibration process and results, and the validation of the calibration.
Boland, Dillard↗
Models and error analyses in urban air quality estimation
Estimation theory has been applied to a wide range of aerospace problems. Application of this expertise outside the aerospace field has been extremely limited, however. This paper describes the use of covariance error analysis techniques in evaluating the accuracy of pollution estimates obtained from a variety of concentration measuring devices. It is shown how existing software developed for aerospace applications can be applied to the estimation of pollution through the processing of measurement types involving a range of spatial and temporal responses. The modeling of pollutant concentration by meandering Gaussian plumes is described in some detail. Time averaged measurements are associated with a model of the average plume, using some of the same state parameters and thus avoiding the problem of state memory. The covariance analysis has been implemented using existing batch estimation software. This usually involves problems in handling dynamic noise; however, the white dynamic noise has been replaced by a band-limited process which can be easily accommodated by the software.
Englar, T., Jr.↗
Implementation of a Wavefront-Sensing Algorithm
A computer program has been written as a unique implementation of an image-based wavefront-sensing algorithm reported in "Iterative-Transform Phase Retrieval Using Adaptive Diversity" (GSC-14879-1), NASA Tech Briefs, Vol. 31, No. 4 (April 2007), page 32. This software was originally intended for application to the James Webb Space Telescope, but is also applicable to other segmented-mirror telescopes. The software is capable of determining optical-wavefront information using, as input, a variable number of irradiance measurements collected in defocus planes about the best focal position. The software also uses input of the geometrical definition of the telescope exit pupil (otherwise denoted the pupil mask) to identify the locations of the segments of the primary telescope mirror. From the irradiance data and mask information, the software calculates an estimate of the optical wavefront (a measure of performance) of the telescope generally and across each primary mirror segment specifically. The software is capable of generating irradiance data, wavefront estimates, and basis functions for the full telescope and for each primary-mirror segment. Optionally, each of these pieces of information can be measured or computed outside of the software and incorporated during execution of the software.
Smith, Jeffrey S.↗