Online updating of a Markovian solar forecast representation
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Sward, Jeffrey A. (ORCID:0000000217438944)↗
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Results for “solar resource assessment”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach
The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor built components.
Lee, Lydia L.↗
Initial Feasibility Assessment of Agrivoltaics in Jackson County, IL
Consistent with concerns raised in other rural communities, the agricultural community in Jackson County, IL is reluctant to install ground based photovoltaic (PV) systems on prime agricultural land. Agrivoltaic solutions have the potential to mitigate community concerns of conversion of farmland to solar energy by allowing for both energy production and farming practices to occur on the same land area. To assess the potential for agrivoltaics in Jackson County, IL, the Jackson County Coalition requested technical assistance to perform an initial technoeconomic assessment, resource assessment, and feasibility assessment based on the unique agricultural context present in the area. In this paper, the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) interviewed five Jackson County experts for five key crops (vineyards, strawberries, pumpkins, apple and pear orchards, and hemp) to examine potential for agrivoltaics integration and identify key barriers that could hamper development. NREL performed technoeconomic analysis for different agrivoltaic system designs to determine the economic constraints and opportunities of agrivoltaics development. Overall, there is no one path for agrivoltaics success in Jackson County. Pilot projects can assist in demonstrating agrivoltaic feasibility to stakeholders reluctant to be first adopters. Based on preliminary analyses, agrivoltaic integration with vineyards may prove most feasible as the per acre returns of grapes are comparable with the returns needed to offset higher solar development costs for agrivoltaic systems. In terms of technical specifications of solar, pumpkins and strawberries could be integrated into more traditional solar designs, but there are concerns with shading and pest control. There is no one size fits all solution, and many options may need exploring before a workable solution is found.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Closed Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment of the United States
The data includes a geospatial and spreadsheet representation of a resource analysis for closed loop pumped storage systems across the Continental United States, Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. The data includes energy storage potential, water volume, distance from source to storage, hydraulic head, dollars per kilowatt of storage, and transmission spurline cost for each pumped storage hydropower (PHS) reservoir. Each reservoir represented in this dataset is represented on potential 10 hour storage duration PSH system comprised of two reservoirs. Units of measure are laid out in the dataset. Pumped storage hydropower (PSH) represents the bulk of the United States' current energy storage capacity: 23 gigawatts (GW) of the 24 GW national total (Denholm et al. 2021). This capacity was largely built between 1960 and 1990. PSH is a mature and proven method of energy storage with competitive round-trip efficiency and long life spans. These qualities make PSH a very attractive potential solution to energy storage needs, particularly for longer-duration storage (8 hours or more); such storage will be crucial to bridge gaps in electricity production as variable wind and solar production continue to comprise an ever-larger portion of the United States' energy portfolio. This study seeks to better understand the technical potential for PSH development in the United States by developing a national-scale resource assessment for closed-loop PSH. For more information, please refer to the Closed Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment for the United States linked in the resources.
Array↗
Secure and Resilient Operations Using Open-Source Distributed Systems Platform (OpenDSP)
The goal of this project is to identify and address cybersecurity gaps by developing a multi-layer multi-channel cyber-physical defense and survival mechanism for operating distribution networks with high penetration of solar / inverter-based resource (IBR) / distributed energy resource (DER). The proposed security enhancements are built upon the distributed framework and solution architecture for both information technology (IT) and operational technology (OT) systems. The technical solutions consist of two composite functionalities and six layers: proactive defense (vulnerability assessment, communication protection, and attack detection, as layers 1-3), and adaptive self-healing (attack-resilient control, adaptive recovery, and resilient survival, as layers 4-6). These layers, built on and extended from DHS CISA Cyber Framework, establish an integrated and robust cybersecurity framework for operating large-scale distribution networks.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Integration of a DER Management System in Riverside. Final report
The tasks in this project covered various aspects, including algorithm development, algorithm integration into a commercial Active Network Management (ANM) platform, hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing in an industry-standard testing platform, pilot demonstration in Riverside, California, and also cost and benefit analysis. The DERMS platform in this project can host different algorithms developed on different platforms (e.g., MATLAB and Python) and it can interact with different hardware devices (e.g., different PV inverters, battery inverters, and different sensors). The DER control solution are based on an advanced model-free, layered, and clustered DER control paradigm. At the core of the DER control algorithms was the concept of Extremum Seeking (ES), which is a model-free probing-based control technique. The ES-based control algorithms were tested on major real-world inverters; both individually and in a cluster. It was shown that even legacy equipment (or when paired with a few additional advanced equipment) can support such advanced control. The monitoring algorithms utilize a heterogeneous set of legacy and advanced sensor measurements, such as behind-the-meter DER sensors, distribution-level Phase Measurement Units, distribution-substation Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA), and line current sensors, with their limited availability; in order to infer practical network conditions. Sensor data are utilized to achieve resource forecasting, phase identification, and distribution system state estimation. The technology that was developed and demonstrated in this project could be transformational to utilities, including the smaller municipal utilities such as in Riverside, which may not have the resources to deploy advanced distribution system and DERMS solutions in order to support high penetration of solar power integration. This project created a real-world prototype to provide utilities with an assessment of smart grid monitoring and control technologies.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Federal Aviation Administration Vertiport Electrical Infrastructure Study
In this detailed analysis, the authors assess the charging infrastructure needed for the deployment of advanced air mobility involving electrified vertical take-off and landing technologies. The report covers four research areas: (1) Identifying charging infrastructure requirements for existing facilities based on flight operational parameters, potential use cases, charging strategy, and other constraints. (2) Assessing sites on power availability to meet charging demand, the impact on grid infrastructure, potential hazards, and cybersecurity needs, and using technoeconomic analysis to identify opportunities for onsite distributed energy resources, primarily solar photovoltaics and battery energy storage systems. (3) Calculating greenhouse gas emission based on total energy consumption attributable to each site. (4) Analyzing the job and economic development impact for sites adopting new infrastructure.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Cost comparisons for the use of nonterrestrial materials in space manufacturing of large structures
This paper presents results of a study sponsored by NASA to evaluate the relative merits of constructing solar power satellites (SPS) using resources obtained from the earth and from the moon. Three representative lunar resources utilization (LRU) concepts are developed and compared with a previously defined earth baseline concept. Economic assessment of the alternatives includes cost determination, economic threshold sensitivity to manufacturing cost variations, cost uncertainties, program funding schedule, and present value of costs. Results indicate that LRU for space construction is competitive with the earth baseline approach for a program requiring 100,000 metric tons per year of completed satellites. LRU can reduce earth-launched cargo requirements to less than 10% of that needed to build satellites exclusively from earth materials. LRU is potentially more cost-effective than earth-derived material utilization, due to significant reductions in both transportation and manufacturing costs. Because of uncertainties, cost-effectiveness cannot be ascertained with great confidence. The probability of LRU attaining a lower total program cost within the 30-year program appears to range from 57 to 93%.
Bock, E. H.↗
Evaluating Air-Source Heat Pumps with Distributed Energy Resources in REopt
This training introduces attendees to NREL's REopt(R) web tool and its capabilities in evaluating air-source heat pumps (ASHP) alongside distributed energy resources (DERs). Designed for energy managers, facility operators, and sustainability managers, this session will explore how REopt provides techno-economic analysis to assess the financial viability of ASHP while identifying synergies with solar PV and battery storage. Participants will gain practical insights into using REopt to optimize energy strategies, reduce costs, and improve site resilience.
32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
Mars Molniya Orbit Atmospheric Resource Mining
This NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Phase I study examined the revolutionary concept of performing resource collection and utilization during Mars orbital operations in order to enable the landing of large payloads. An exploration architecture was developed, out of which several mission alternatives were developed. Concepts of operations were then developed for each mission alternative, followed by concepts for spacecraft systems, which were traded to assess their feasibility. A novel architecture using Mars Molniya Orbit Atmospheric Resource Mining is feasible to enable an Earth-independent and pioneering, permanent human presence on Mars by providing a reusable, single-stage-to-orbit transportation system. This will allow cargo and crew to be routinely delivered to and from Mars without transporting propellants from Earth.In Phase I, our study explored how electrical energy could be harnessed from the kinetic energy of the incoming spacecraft and then be used to produce the oxygen necessary for landing. This concept of operations is revolutionary in that its focus is on using in situ resources in complementary and varied forms: the upper atmosphere of Mars is used for aerocapture, which is followed by aerobraking, the kinetic energy of the spacecraft is transformed into usable electrical energy during aerobraking, and the atmospheric composition is the source of oxidizer for a landing under supersonic retropropulsion. This NASA Innovative Advanced Concepts (NIAC) Phase I study explores a novel mission architecture to establish routine, Earth-independent transfer of large mass payloads between Earth and the Mars surface and back to Mars orbit. The first stage of routine mission operations involves an atmospheric resource mining aerobraking campaign following aerocapture into a highly elliptical Mars orbit. During each pass through the atmosphere, the vehicle ingests the atmospheric oxidizer and stores it onboard, using solid oxide electrolysis to convert the primarily CO2 atmosphere into usable O2 for propellant. Power is made available through the use of magnetohydrodynamic energy generation, which converts the motion of the plasma in the shock later into usable electrical energy. Upon termination of the aerobraking sequence, the descent vehicle detaches from the orbit stack, deorbits, and executes the entry, descent, and landing sequence. Hypersonic deceleration is achieved via a deployable heat shield to lower the vehicle ballistic coefficient, and supersonic and subsonic deceleration are achieved via retropropulsion. Mars surface operations involve resource mining of the Martian regolith to produce CH4 and O2 propellant to be used for the subsequent MDAV ascent back to high Mars orbit (HMO) providing an apoapsis raise maneuver to initialize the aerobraking sequence, in addition to providing fuel from the Mars surface for EDL propulsive descent. The Resource Collector Vehicle (RCV), which is used for the orbital mining operations, is raised back to HMO via onboard deployable augmented solar electric propulsion. Concepts of operations were developed for each mission alternative, to evaluate between them and assess feasibility.
Mining↗
Explained: Maintaining a Reliable Future Grid with More Wind and Solar
Since the early 2000s, maintaining grid reliability has become more complex due to a variety of factors, including the changing generation mix, the creation of wholesale energy markets, and a growing number of extreme weather events. Parts of the U.S. grid are already operating with significant amounts of wind and solar generation - with 2022 annual wind and solar generation in the range of 25% to 40%. Even without considering the effects of extreme weather, maintaining reliability will require new capacity to address both growth in electric demand and retiring capacity. Based on the 2022 North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) Long-Term Reliability Assessment, the combination of both growth in peak demand and retirements suggests a need for more than 100 gigawatts (GW) of new capacity by 2032. In general, there are a five categories of resources that are expected to be deployed and used to meet the challenge of maintaining an adequate source of supply in the coming decades: new wind and solar resources (accounting for their reliability contributions), energy storage, demand response resources, expanded transmission, and continued use of thermal generators.
power grid↗
Inputs and Outputs for "A Resource Adequacy Assessment of Correlated Wide-Area Outages in the Power Grid”
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Development of an Interactive Valuation Model for Distributed Energy Resource Value: Cooperative Research and Development (Final Report)
The Oklahoma Office of the Secretary of Energy and Environment (OSEE) seeks to address perceived challenges and barriers to the deployment of distributed energy generation resources (DERs), including solar and other technologies, in the state of Oklahoma. The Scope of Work (SOW) associated with CRD-18-762 covers two tasks: (1) Interactive Valuation Model Requirements Document and (2) Consumer Protection Assessment. Follow-on work was completed under a separate CRADA (CRD-19-00788).
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
In-Situ Production of Solar Power Systems for Exploration
Current proposals for developing an extended human presence, beyond space stations, on the Moon and Mars increasingly consider the processing of non-terrestrial materials essential for keeping the Earth launch burden reasonable. Utilization of in-situ resources for construction of lunar and Mars bases will initially require assessment of resource availability followed by the development of economically acceptable and technically feasible extractive processes. In regard to materials processing and fabrication the lower gravity level on the Moon (0.125 g) and Mars (0.367 g) will dramatically change the presently accepted hierarchy of materials in terms of specific properties, a factor which must be understood and exploited. Furthermore, significant changes are expected in the behavior of liquid materials during processing. In casting, for example, mold filling and associated solidification processes have to be reevaluated. Finally microstructural development and therefore material properties, presently being documented through on-going research in microgravity science and applications, needs to be understood and scaled to the reduced gravity environments. One of the most important elements of a human planetary base is power production. Lunar samples and geophysical measurements returned by the Apollo missions provide detailed data on the composition and physical characteristics of the lunar materials and environment. Based on this knowledge and extrapolations of terrestrial industrial experience it is clear that several types of solar-to-electric converters can be manufactured on the Moon. It is conceivable that well over 90% of a solar-to- electric power system could be made from lunar materials. Production and utilization of photovoltaic devices for solar energy production on Earth is primarily driven by the market economy. On Earth a production plant for photovoltaic devices is intimately linked to the planets massive industrial base. A selection of off the shelf refined materials are available as well as cheap fast transportation on demand. The processes takes place (except for the few seconds reprieve in shot towers etc.) under one gravity, with solar radiation significantly modulated by weather, and under conditions where one atmosphere is free and high vacuum is cumbersome and expensive. Off Earth, on lunar or Mars bases, the cost of photovoltaic power is driven by transport costs - Earth launch, deep space transport, landing on the planetary surface. Thus there is a premium for processes that are materials self-sufficient or for closed loop in-situ processes. The lack of differentiated ores on the Moon, and lack of explored minerals on Mars and interplanetary space give a premium to universal/non-ore-specific mineral extractive processes. Initially a semiconductor/photovoltaic production facility will build on no conveniently located industrial base, further increasing the premium on closed loop self sufficient processes.
Curreri, Peter A.↗
Keep it short: Exploring the impacts of configuration choices on the recent economics of solar-plus-battery and wind-plus-battery hybrid energy plants
Coupled renewable-battery powerplants differ from the traditional concept of independent siting of electricity resources within transmission networks. Prior research on the value proposition and cost savings from coupling did not consider the geographic constraint of co-location. This paper fills the gap by assessing how pricing volatility differences between nodes within electricity markets impact the system value of coupled renewable-battery projects as compared to independent VRE and battery installations. We use wholesale power market prices from 2012–2019 across the seven main U.S. independent system operators (ISOs) with a linear optimization program to compare the electricity market value of coupled projects to the value of the same underlying sub-components, deployed separately. We find that additional value from adding a 4-hour battery sized to 50% of renewable-plant nameplate capacity is $\$10$/MWh across ISOs on average. The highest boost occurs in California ($\$15$/MWh), where the value of adding storage to solar rises over time in tandem with increased solar penetration in the region. If renewables and batteries are deployed independently, we estimate that $\$12.5$/MWh of additional value could be achieved because of more flexibility on battery siting and operation. The $\$12.5$/MWh coupling penalty is reduced to $\$1.6$/MWh when considering alternative approaches to integrating battery storage. This result implies that renewable-battery power plants will play an increasing role in electricity systems if they can be built for $\$2$–$\$13$/MWh less than independent projects of comparable size. However, the wide regional variation in coupling penalties, along with the importance of conditions captured in our sensitivity cases, suggests the tradeoff between coupling penalties and savings will vary by situation. Therefore, roles exist for independent and coupled projects from a system optimization perspective.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Closed-Loop Pumped Storage Hydropower Resource Assessment for the United States. Final Report on HydroWIRES Project D1: Improving Hydropower and PSH Representations in Capacity Expansion Models
Pumped storage hydropower represents the bulk of the United States' current energy storage capacity: 23 gigawatts (GW) of the 24-GW national total (Denholm et al. 2021). This capacity was largely built between 1960 and 1990. PSH is a mature and proven method of energy storage with competitive round-trip efficiency and long life spans. These qualities make PSH a very attractive potential solution to energy storage needs, particularly for longer-duration storage (8 hours or more); such storage will be crucial to bridge gaps in electricity production as variable wind and solar production continue to comprise an ever-larger portion of the United States' energy portfolio (Cole et al. 2021; Frazier et al. 2021). However, it is unclear how much potential the United States has for the development of new PSH. No new large PSH has been constructed in the United States since the 1990s, and attempts to quantify technical potential capacity from PSH project applications to the Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (FERC) suffer from inconsistent site and cost evaluation methodologies and likely are not representative of all PSH opportunities. This study seeks to better under understand the technical potential for PSH development in the United States by developing a national-scale resource assessment for closed-loop PSH. Individual sites are not modeled in sufficient detail for project-level development, but they do provide valuable insights into potential resource areas across the United States, including the ability to provide estimates for a range of long-term development scenarios.
13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
Using concentrating-solar-power plants as economic carbon-free capacity resources
Deep decarbonization of electricity systems raises concerns about the need for generating capacity that can maintain reliable energy supply. Given this concern, we explore the ability of concentrating-solar-power plants with thermal energy storage to provide a carbon-free source of such capacity. We develop an approach to assessing the capacity contribution of concentrating-solar-power plants that considers future systems. Such considerations are important, because of potential differences in net-load patterns compared to today (e.g., due to higher renewable-energy penetrations). Using historical data spanning an 18-year period, we demonstrate that concentrating-solar-power plants with thermal energy storage can provide this necessary capacity with little impact on their financial viability. We examine the impact of myopic decisions and imperfect foresight of future system conditions on the operation of concentrating-solar-power plants and the resultant impact on their capacity contributions. We find that imperfect foresight can have limited impacts on such a use of concentrating-solar-power plants, so long as proper forecasting techniques are developed and used. Overall, our work shows that concentrating-solar-power plants with thermal energy storage may have a role to play in delivering reliable electricity supply in a decarbonized energy system.
14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
Remote Sensing Assessment of Lunar Resources: We Know Where to Go to Find What We Need
The utilization of space resources is necessary to not only foster the growth of human activities in space, but is essential to the President s vision of a "sustained and affordable human and robotic program to explore the solar system and beyond." The distribution of resources will shape planning permanent settlements by affecting decisions about where to locate a settlement. Mapping the location of such resources, however, is not the limiting factor in selecting a site for a lunar base. It is indecision about which resources to use that leaves the location uncertain. A wealth of remotely sensed data exists that can be used to identify targets for future detailed exploration. Thus, the future of space resource utilization pre-dominantly rests upon developing a strategy for resource exploration and efficient methods of extraction.
Gillis, J. J.↗