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NASA NTRS2006

Space Weather Modeling Services at the Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership, which aims at the creation of next generation space weather models. The goal of the CCMC is to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase the present-day modeling capability for space weather purposes, and to provide models for transition to the Rapid Prototyping Centers at the space weather forecast centers. This goal requires close collaborations with and substantial involvement of the research community. The physical regions to be addressed by CCMC-related activities range from the solar atmosphere to the Earth's upper atmosphere. The CCMC is an integral part of the National Space Weather Program Implementation Plan, of NASA's Living With a Star (LWS) initiative, and of the Department of Defense Space Weather Transition Plan. CCMC includes a facility at NASA Goddard Space Flight Center. CCMC also provides, to the research community, access to state-of-the-art space research models. In this paper we will provide a description of the current CCMC status, discuss current plans, research and development accomplishments and goals, and describe the model testing and validation process undertaken as part of the CCMC mandate. Special emphasis will be on solar and heliospheric models currently residing at CCMC, and on plans for validation and verification.

Hesse, Michael↗
NASA NTRS2022

CMEs and SEPs During November–December 2020: A Challenge for Real-Time Space Weather Forecasting

Predictions of coronal mass ejections (CMEs) and solar energetic particles (SEPs) are a central issue in space weather forecasting. In recent years, interest in space weather predictions has expanded to include impacts at other planets beyond Earth as well as spacecraft scattered throughout the heliosphere. In this sense, the scope of space weather science now encompasses the whole heliospheric system, and multipoint measurements of solar transients can provide useful insights and validations for prediction models. In this work, we aim to analyze the whole inner heliospheric context between two eruptive flares that took place in late 2020, that is, the M4.4 flare of 29 November and the C7.4 flare of 7 December. This period is especially interesting because the STEREO-A spacecraft was located ∼60° east of the Sun–Earth line, giving us the opportunity to test the capabilities of “predictions at 360°” using remote-sensing observations from the Lagrange L1 and L5 points as input. We simulate the CMEs that were ejected during our period of interest and the SEPs accelerated by their shocks using the WSA–Enlil–SEPMOD modeling chain and four sets of input parameters, forming a “mini-ensemble.” We validate our results using in situ observations at six locations, including Earth and Mars. We find that, despite some limitations arising from the models' architecture and assumptions, CMEs and shock-accelerated SEPs can be reasonably studied and forecast in real time at least out to several tens of degrees away from the eruption site using the prediction tools employed here.

Coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2012

Space Weathering Products Found on the Surfaces of the Itokawa Dust Particles: A Summary of the Initial Analysis

Surfaces of airless bodies exposed to interplanetary space gradually have their structures, optical properties, chemical compositions, and mineralogy changed by solar wind implantation and sputtering, irradiation by galactic and solar cosmic rays, and micrometeorite bombardment. These alteration processes and the resultant optical changes are known as space weathering [1, 2, 3]. Our knowledge of space weathering has depended almost entirely on studies of the surface materials returned from the Moon and regolith breccia meteorites [1, 4, 5, 6] until the surface material of the asteroid Itokawa was returned to the Earth by the Hayabusa spacecraft [7]. Lunar soil studies show that space weathering darkens the albedo of lunar soil and regolith, reddens the slopes of their reflectance spectra, and attenuates the characteristic absorption bands of their reflectance spectra [1, 2, 3]. These changes are caused by vapor deposition of small (<40 nm) metallic Fe nanoparticles within the grain rims of lunar soils and agglutinates [5, 6, 8]. The initial analysis of the Itokawa dust particles revealed that 5 out of 10 particles have nanoparticle-bearing rims, whose structure varies depending on mineral species. Sulfur-bearing Fe-rich nanoparticles (npFe) exist in a thin (5-15 nm) surface layer (zone I) on olivine, low-Ca pyroxene, and plagioclase, suggestive of vapor deposition. Sulfur-free npFe exist deeper inside (<60 nm) ferromagnesian silicates (zone II). Their texture suggests formation by amorphization and in-situ reduction of Fe2+ in ferromagnesian silicates [7]. On the other hand, nanophase metallic iron (npFe0) in the lunar samples is embedded in amorphous silicate [5, 6, 8]. These textural differences indicate that the major formation mechanisms of the npFe0 are different between the Itokawa and the lunar samples. Here we report a summary of the initial analysis of space weathering of the Itokawa dust particles.

Noguchi, T.↗
NASA NTRS1962

Satellite to Study ''Space Weather''

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration soon will launch another Explorer satellite to unravel some of the scientific mysteries of how "space weather" affects man's daily life and his future exploration of space. The 89-pound satellite, S-3a, similar to the highly successful Explorer XII placed into orbit last year, will be launched from Cape Canaveral, Fla., no earlier than October 2, using a Thor-Delta rocket. If successful, this will be the 12th straight launch f o r the Delta continuing its unprecedented record for U.S. rocketry.

COSMIC RADIATION↗
NASA NTRS2008

Predicting Material Performance in the Space Environment from Laboratory Test Data, Static Design Environments, and Space Weather Models

Qualifying materials for use in the space environment is typically accomplished with laboratory exposures to simulated UV/EUV, atomic oxygen, and charged particle radiation environments with in-situ or subsequent measurements of material properties of interest to the particular application. Choice of environment exposure levels are derived from static design environments intended to represent either mean or extreme conditions that are anticipated to be encountered during a mission. The real space environment however is quite variable. Predictions of the on orbit performance of a material qualified to laboratory environments can be done using information on 'space weather' variations in the real environment. This presentation will first review the variability of space environments of concern for material degradation and then demonstrate techniques for using test data to predict material performance in a variety of space environments from low Earth orbit to interplanetary space using historical measurements and space weather models.

Minow, Josep I.↗
NASA NTRS2021

Small Satellite Mission Concepts for Space Weather Research and as Pathfinders for Operations

Recent advances in miniaturization and commercial availability of critical satellite subsystems and detector technology have made small satellites (SmallSats, including CubeSats) an attractive, low-cost potential solution for space weather research and operational needs. Motivated by the first International Workshop on SmallSats for Space Weather Research and Forecasting, held in Washington, DC on 1–4 August 2017, we discuss the need for advanced space weather measurement capabilities, driven by analyses from the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), and how SmallSats can efficiently fill these measurement gaps. We present some current, recent missions and proposed/upcoming mission concepts using SmallSats that enhance space weather research and provide prototyping pathways for future operational applications; how they relate to the WMO requirements; and what challenges remain to be overcome to meet the WMO goals and operational needs in the future. With additional investment from cognizant funding agencies worldwide, SmallSats—including standalone missions and constellations—could significantly enhance space weather research and, eventually, operations, by reducing costs and enabling new measurements not feasible from traditional, large, monolithic missions.

Amir Caspi↗
NASA NTRS2019

ISEP: A Joint SRAG/CCMC Collaboration to Improve Mitigation of Space Weather Effects on Crew Health in the Exo-LEO Era

The Space Radiation Analysis Group (SRAG) at Johnson Space Center (JSC) is tasked with monitoring changes to space weather and mitigating any resultant impacts to crew health and safety. As human spaceflight goals extend from Low-Earth Orbit (LEO) missions like the International Space Station (ISS) to the moon, Mars and beyond, SRAG will need to update their current approach for crew monitoring of and protection from radiation exposure due to energetic Solar Particle Events (ESPEs). Challenges faced in planning exo-LEO missions include the lack of protection from the Earth’s geomagnetic field employed by the ISS in addition to limited communication capability between the crew and the ground. In the event of an ESPE, the current ISS trajectory ensures that the vehicle is only traveling through fields of higher radiation exposure for a brief period of time; the Earth’s geomagnetic field prevents the penetration of the high-energy particles of concern throughout the majority of the orbit. Exo-LEO missions, on the other hand, require that the vehicle travel through free space, exposing vehicle and crew to the full impact of the ESPE. NASA has combined multiple approaches to resolve this radiation exposure issue. New vehicles are designed to take advantage of advances in particle transport modeling capabilities and shielding technology, allowing redistribution of mass throughout the vehicle to areas of thinner shielding when the energetic particle flux has increased to levels of concern. Although vehicle shielding is an important aspect of radiation exposure protection, there is a continued requirement to monitor and predict the space weather environment. To this end, SRAG maintains a console position in Mission Control with 24/7 mission support capability. In the event of increased solar activity, SRAG collaborates with the Flight Control Team (FCT) to determine if crew action (i.e., shelter) is required. During any increase in solar activity, the FCT needs three pieces of information to effectively decide the crew response in light of other required mission tasks: if an event (ESPE) will occur, how ‘intense’ an observed event will be, and how long will an observed event will last. An ideal alert system limits false alarms, therefore causing the crew to take action unnecessarily, without ignoring events that pose a hazard to the crew. SRAG’s current operational concept for ISS missions focuses on short-term forecasts, best described as ‘now-casting’. Console operators are in daily communication with the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC) for situational awareness purposes. When conditions exist that may lead to increased solar activity, operators receive notifications from SWPC. In the case of a well-connected ESPE, the console operator may only have on the order of minutes to several hours to notify the FCT of the event and provide a recommendation for crew action. As NASA shifts to exo-LEO missions, the increased time in free space as well as the reduced ability to communicate with the crew will force a transition in crew protection strategy that emphasizes improvments to both the accuracy and the lead time in forecasting capabilities.

Barzilla, Janet E.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Workshop Report on Space Weather Risks and Society

As technological innovations produce new capabilities, complexities, and interdependencies, our susceptibility to the societal impacts of space weather increase. There is real concern in the scientific community that our infrastructure would be at significant risk if a major geomagnetic storm should occur. To discuss the societal impacts of space weather, we brought together an interdisciplinary group of subject matter experts and societal stakeholders to participate in a workshop entitled Space Weather Risks and Society. The workshop was held at Ames Research Center (ARC) on 15-16 October 2011. The workshop was co-sponsored by NASA Ames Research Center (ARC), the Lockheed Martin Advanced Technology Center (LMATC), the Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC, part of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration NOAA), and the Rutherford Appleton Laboratory (RAL, part of the UK Science and Technology Facilities Council STFC). The workshop is part of a series of informal weekend workshops hosted by Center Director Pete Worden.

coronal mass ejections↗
NASA NTRS2011

Space Weather, Geomagnetic Disturbances and Impact on the High-Voltage Transmission Systems

Geomagnetically induced currents (GIC) affecting the performance of high-voltage power transmission systems are one of the most significant hazards space weather poses on the operability of critical US infrastructure. The severity of the threat was emphasized, for example, in two recent reports: the National Research Council (NRC) report "Severe Space Weather Events--Understanding Societal and Economic Impacts: A Workshop Report" and the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) report "HighImpact, Low-Frequency Event Risk to the North American Bulk Power System." The NRC and NERC reports demonstrated the important national security dimension of space weather and GIC and called for comprehensive actions to forecast and mitigate the hazard. In this paper we will give a brief overview of space weather storms and accompanying geomagnetic storm events that lead to GIC. We will also review the fundamental principles of how GIC can impact the power transmission systems. Space weather has been a subject of great scientific advances that have changed the wonder of the past to a quantitative field of physics with true predictive power of today. NASA's Solar Shield system aimed at forecasting of GIC in the North American high-voltage power transmission system can be considered as one of the ultimate fruits of those advances. We will review the fundamental principles of the Solar Shield system and provide our view of the way forward in the science of GIC.

Pullkkinen, A.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Space Weather Workshop

This workshop will focus on what space weather is about and its impact on society. An overall picture will be "painted" describing the Sun's influence through the solar wind on the near-Earth space environment, including the aurora, killer electrons at geosynchronous orbit, million ampere electric currents through the ionosphere and along magnetic field lines, and the generation of giga-Watts of natural radio waves. Reference material in the form of Internet sites will be provided so that teachers can discuss space weather in the classroom and enable students to learn more about this topic.

Gallagher, D. L.↗
NASA NTRS2007

An Experimental Approach to Understanding the Optical Effects of Space Weathering

The creation and accumulation of nanophase iron (npFe(sup 0)) is the primary mechanism by which spectra of materials exposed to the space environment incur systematic changes referred to as "space weathering." The optical effects of this npFe(sup 0) on lunar soils are well documented. Space weathering though, should occur on the surface of any planetary body that is not protected by an atmosphere. There is no reason to assume that cumulative space weathering products throughout the solar system will be the same as those found in lunar soils. In fact, these products are likely to be very dependent on the specific environmental conditions under which they were produced. We have prepared a suite of analog soils to explore the optical effects of npFe(sup 0). By varying the size and concentration of npFe(sup 0) in the analogs we found significant systematic changes in the Vis/NIR spectral properties of the materials. Smaller npFe(sup 0) (<10 nm in diameter) dramatically reddens spectra in the visible wavelengths while leaving the infrared region largely unaffected. Larger npFe(sup 0) (>40 nm in diameter) lowers the albedo across the Vis/NIR range with little change in the overall shape of the continuum. Intermediate npFe(sup 0) sizes impact the spectra in a distinct pattern that changes with concentration. The products of these controlled experiments have implications for space-weathered material throughout the inner solar system. Our results indicate that the lunar soil continuum is best modeled by npFe(sup 0) particles with bulk properties in the approx.15-25 nm size range. Larger npFe0 grains result in spectra that are similar in shape to the Mercury continuum. The continuum of S-type asteroid spectra appear to be best represented by small amounts of npFe(sup 0) that is similar to, but slightly smaller on average, than the npFe(sup 0) in lunar soils (approx.10-15 nm).

Noble, Sarah K.↗
NASA NTRS2012

On the Probability of Occurrence of Extreme Space Weather Events

By virtue of their rarity, extreme space weather events, such as the Carrington event of 1859, are difficult to study, their rates of occurrence are difficult to estimate, and prediction of a specific future event is virtually impossible. Additionally, events may be extreme relative to one parameter but normal relative to others. In this study, we analyze several measures of the severity of space weather events (flare intensity, coronal mass ejection speeds, Dst, and greater than 30 MeV proton fluences as inferred from nitrate records) to estimate the probability of occurrence of extreme events. By showing that the frequency of occurrence scales as an inverse power of the severity of the event, and assuming that this relationship holds at higher magnitudes, we are able to estimate the probability that an event larger than some criteria will occur within a certain interval of time in the future. For example, the probability of another Carrington event (based on Dst less than - 850 nT) occurring within the next decade is approximately 12%. We also identify and address several limitations with this approach. In particular, we assume time stationarity, and thus, the effects of long-term space climate change are not considered. While this technique cannot be used to predict specific events, it may ultimately be useful for probabilistic forecasting.

Riley, Pete↗
NASA NTRS2019

Understanding the Space Weathering of Mercury via Simulation of Micrometeorite Impacts

Space weathering alters the surfaces of airless planetary bodies via irradiation from the solar wind and micrometeorite impacts. These processes modify the microstructure, chemical composition, and spectral properties of surface materials, typically resulting in the reddening (increasing reflectance with increasing wavelength), darkening (reducing albedo), and attenuation of characteristic absorption features in reflectance spectra. In lunar samples, these changes in optical properties are driven by the production of reduced nanophase Fe particles (npFe). Our understanding of space weathering has largely been based on data from the Moon and, more recently, near-Earth S-type asteroids. However, the environment at Mercury is significantly different, with the surface experiencing intense solar wind irradiation and higher velocity micrometeorite impacts. Additionally, the composition of Mercury’s surface varies significantly from that of the Moon, including a component with very low albedo known as low reflectance material (LRM) which is enriched with up to 4 wt.% carbon over the local mean. Our understanding of how carbon phases, including graphite, are altered as a result of these processes is limited.

McGlaun, M. L.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Solar Cycle Variation on Space Weather

We report on the solar cycle variation of solar eruptions and their space weather consequences during solar cycles 23-25. While the solar activity cycle is primarily expressed in terms of the Sunspot number (SSN), coronal mass ejections (CMEs) provide a different perspective on the solar cycle owing to their origin in sunspot regions as well as other non-spot magnetic regions such as quiescent filament regions. Weak solar activity observed in solar cycle 24 has been found to result in a weak heliospheric state, which backreacted on CME properties. The cycle resulted in mild space weather in that the number of large solar energetic particle events and geomagnetic storms decreased significantly. The occurrence of intense geomagnetic storms and high-energy SEP events was drastically reduced, much more than the reduction in the solar activity. The current status of solar cycle 25 indicates that it will be similar to solar cycle 24 or slightly stronger, which means a mild space weather in this cycle as well. We illustrate this using the data obtained during the rise phase of solar cycle 25 in comparison with the corresponding phases in cycles 23 and 24.

Nat Gopalswamy↗
NASA NTRS2014

Space Weathering of Olivine in Lunar Soils: A Comparison to Itokawa Regolith Samples

Regolith particles from airless bodies preserve a record of the space weathering processes that occurred during their surface exposure history. These processes have major implications for interpreting remote-sensing data from airless bodies. Solar wind irradiation effects occur in the rims of exposed grains, and impact processes result in the accumulation of vapordeposited elements and other surface-adhering materials. The grains returned from the surface of Itokawa by the Hayabusa mission allow the space weathering "style" of a chondritic, asteroidal "soil" to be compared to the lunar case. Here, we present new studies of space-weathered olivine grains from lunar soils, and compare these results to olivine grains from Itokawa. Samples and Methods: We analyzed microtome thin sections of olivine grains from the 20-45 micron fractions of three lunar soils: 71061, 71501 and 10084 (immature, submature and mature, respectively). Imaging and analytical data were obtained using a JEOL 2500SE 200kV field-emission scanning-transmission electron microscope equipped with a thin-window energy-dispersive x-ray spectrometer. Similar analyses were obtained from three Hayabusa olivine grains. Results and Discussion: We observed lunar grains showing a range of solar flare track densities (from <10(exp 9) to approx.10(exp 12)/sq cm). The lunar olivines all show disordered, highly strained, nanocrystalline rims up to 150-nm thick. The disordered rim thickness is positively correlated with solar flare track density. All of the disordered rims are overlain by a Si-rich amorphous layer, ranging up to 50-nm thick, enriched in elements that are not derived from the host olivine (e.g., Ca, Al, and Ti). The outmost layer represents impact-generated vapor deposits typically observed on other lunar soil grains. The Hayabusa olivine grains show track densities <10(exp 10)/sq cm and display disordered rims 50- to 100-nm thick. The track densities are intermediate to those observed in olivines in immature and submature lunar soils and indicate surface exposures of approx. 10(exp 5) years. The outermost few nanometers of the disordered rims on Hayabusa olivines are more Si-rich and Mg- and Fe-depleted relative to the cores of the grains and likely represent a minor accumulation of impact-generated vapors or sputter deposits. Nanophase Fe metal particles are less abundant in the Hayabusa rims compared to the rims on lunar grains. Conclusions: The Hayabusa and lunar olivine grain rims have widths and microstructures consistent with formation from atomic displacement damage from solar wind ions. The space weathering features in the Hayabusa grains are similar to those observed in olivines from immature to submature lunar soils. A major difference, however, is that the Hayabusa grains appear to lack the hypervelocity impact products (melt spherules, thick vapor deposits, and abundant nanophase Fe metal particles) that are common in lunar soil grains with a similar exposure history.

Keller, L. P.↗
NASA NTRS2011

The Solar Origins of Severe Space Weather

Solar cycle 23 witnessed an unprecedented array of space- and ground-based instruments observing the violent eruptions from the Sun that had huge impact on the heliosphere. Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) contribute to space weather by producing geomagnetic storms and accelerating energetic particles, the two aspects that concern the space weather community. This paper discusses the kinematic and solar-source properties of these CMEs and how they vary with the solar activity cycle with particular emphasis on the following issues. Intense geomagnetic storms are caused by the out-of-the-ecliptic component of the magnetic field in CMEs and/or their sheath. Geoeffective CMEs originate close to the disk center of the Sun. Geoeffective CMEs are more energetic (average speed approx.1000 km/s, mostly halo CMEs or partial halo CMEs). CMEs producing solar energetic particles are the fastest (average speed approx. 1600 km/s) of all CME populations and have very high halo CME fraction. The source location requirement is different for Geoeffective and SEP-producing CMEs because of the different paths taken by CME plasma and energetic particles.

Gopalswamy, Nat↗
NASA NTRS2010

Space Weather

This video provides a narrated exploration of the history and affects of space weather. It includes information the earth's magnetic field, solar radiation, magnetic storms, and how solar winds affect electronics on earth, with specific information on how space weather affects space exploration in the future.

Gallagher, Dennis L.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Validation of Space Weather Models at Community Coordinated Modeling Center

The Community Coordinated Modeling Center (CCMC) is a multi-agency partnership to support the research and developmental work necessary to substantially increase space weather modeling capabilities and to facilitate advanced models deployment in forecasting operations. Space weather models and coupled model chains hosted at the CCMC range from the solar corona to the Earth's upper atmosphere. CCMC has developed a number of real-time modeling systems, as well as a large number of modeling and data products tailored to address the space weather needs of NASA's robotic missions. The CCMC conducts unbiased model testing and validation and evaluates model readiness for operational environment. CCMC has been leading recent comprehensive modeling challenges under GEM, CEDAR and SHINE programs. The presentation will focus on experience in carrying out comprehensive and systematic validation of large sets of. space weather models

Kuznetsova, M. M.↗